Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
If it's nonsense then shouldn't it all by its very definition beggar belief? Otherwise it might merely be wrong, but plausible.
But yeah, there's a lot of straw clutching going to be going on in some quarters.
I have to say, I find it remarkable that Cameron is still favourite to be 'next PM' (by which, I assume they mean PM after the election).
I would make him no more than a 25% shot.
Many of your pals are still putting in money. I was talking to my solicitor just 5 minutes back and told him that sterling has dropped 4c against the EUR.
He said, tomorrow it will be up when Cameron comes back. Stupid git !
Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
I agree, I don't think the mansion tax is a good idea (property rights, targets everyone when it should target just foreign 'investors' etc.) but the idea it would affect many people or their votes is bizarre. Out of touch by the Conservative leadership.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
Why are the polls getting it wrong?
It may not be the pollsters or punters getting it wrong. It could be the dammned voters getting it wrong!
This is my 13th general election. I worked for Labour in1970 and called the result wrong on the night until Guildford was declared and then I realised I had deluded myself out of bias. Many people on here will do that today. I called it for Major in 1992. Today I have a gut feeling that Labour will win. There will be buyers regret very quickly and tremendous anger when Labour raid pension funds to fill the hole they will create in public finances. Still that is democracy I suppose. Even when I campaigned for Labour I was under no illusion that they were hopeless about balancing the books
Miliband has left himself hostage to fortune on plenty of things.
I have to say, I find it remarkable that Cameron is still favourite to be 'next PM' (by which, I assume they mean PM after the election).
I would make him no more than a 25% shot.
Many of your pals are still putting in money. I was talking to my solicitor just 5 minutes back and told him that sterling has dropped 4c against the EUR.
He said, tomorrow it will be up when Cameron comes back. Stupid git !
Correct. It will sink even lower if Miliband wins.
In case anyone missed it, there was an interesting piece on Shadsy on fivethirtyeight.com a couple of days ago. I'm not sure he was supposed to admit that price-sensitive punters get their accounts closed.
Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
Classy response, Murali. Post your own experiences from this morning and I promise I won't call you names.
I apologise for the name calling. It just frustrates me that there is no balance on this blog at times. It's well know that this is a Tory hangout joint and I should take cognisance of that before I post.
I have noticed that JackW has recently stopped writing "Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister" in his posts. I presume it's because he now secretly accepts Ed has a very good chance of reaching no.10 and is trying to gradually backtrack without looking too stupid. I think it's very likely ARSE will be way off this time and given the arrogant certainty of his posts Mr W will hardly be able to complain about the ridicule he may well attract tomorrow.
Unlikely he does believe Eddy will make no10 judging by his final ARSE. He has a right to his prediction and is strong enough to stick by it, not sure why that should attract such vitriol, never really understood people getting upset when a political prediction doesn't match their own preference. Almost football supporter fervour amongst some Labour supporters in particular.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.
However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.
One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.
And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.
If Labour are only 20 seats behind then EICIPM:
Lab - 266 Con - 286 LD - 25 SNP - 50 Oth - 5 NI - 18
Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.
If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.
I apologise for the name calling. It just frustrates me that there is no balance on this blog at times. It's well know that this is a Tory hangout joint and I should take cognisance of that before I post.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.
However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.
One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.
And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.
If Labour are only 20 seats behind then EICIPM:
Lab - 266 Con - 286 LD - 25 SNP - 50 Oth - 5 NI - 18
Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.
If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.
"Legitimacy" is just spin. Whoever can form a govt can form a govt.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.
However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.
One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.
And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.
If Labour are only 20 seats behind then EICIPM:
Lab - 266 Con - 286 LD - 25 SNP - 50 Oth - 5 NI - 18
Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.
If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.
I think at 20 seats behind there would be enough internal Labour pressure to have Ed pass on PMship.
George Eaton (the top Miliband fanboy) has confirmed on Twitter that Labour's "internal forecasts" prior to today had them getting less seats than the Tories.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.
However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.
One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.
And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.
If Labour are only 20 seats behind then EICIPM:
Lab - 266 Con - 286 LD - 25 SNP - 50 Oth - 5 NI - 18
Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.
If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.
Why do you think the LDs wouldn't want to play too? You don't believe their pre-election posturing is the be-all-and-end-all, do you?
This could all come down to the simple reason I abandoned the Tories. The recovery has not got beyond the pockets of the banks and the rich. Voters may prefer Cameron and might be wary of Ed. There is however an underlying resentment that the rich have not been brought to heel, that taxes are not paid by the very wealthiest corps and people and so why should we face austerity if it benefits us not a jot? There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority
I agree. The tiniest concession to taxing the rich - maybe a higher ceiling on Council Tax (if the mansion tax was unfeasible) - would have nullified the "they're a party for the rich" meme.
But no. They're a party for the rich.
What exciting game-changing policies do we get? An inheritance tax cut benefitting the richest and a policy allowing the poorest in society (in social housing) the right to buy. Oh, and with the money they've got spare having bought their council flat, maybe they could buy some Lloyds shares. Laughable.
I think the coalition has been pretty good all round considering the 2010 prognosis. I put this down to the LibDems.
I'm classic petit-bourgeoisie. Middle aged. Business owner. Home owner. Parent. Core vote, I should be.
But on the basis of the 2015 manifesto and the 2015 campaign and an evident detachment from the real lives that 90% of electors live, the tories deserve to go down. I'm actually annoyed at them that they couldn't make one, tiny, visible extra charge on people as rich as them. Just one.
Once again in my constituency I simply have to spunk my vote on the the LibDems when me, and a couple of thousand others like me, could have voted tory and seen Ed Balls heading for the dole office rather than Downing Street. I'll sit tight for ERS and CT and interest rates and whatever to go up and properly fuck me up. Thanks tories.
What proportion of all tax do you think the top 10% and indeed top 1% should pay?
I'll have to go to my meeting soon, and then go home to vote and come back to the Midlands tonight - may need to splash out on Virgin Trains wifi to Tweet the FINAL pretty graphs before polling ends
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.
However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.
One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.
And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.
“The America of my time line is a laboratory example of what can happen to democracies, what has eventually happened to all perfect democracies throughout all histories. A perfect democracy, a ‘warm body’ democracy in which every adult may vote and all votes count equally, has no internal feedback for self-correction. It depends solely on the wisdom and self-restraint of citizens… which is opposed by the folly and lack of self-restraint of other citizens. What is supposed to happen in a democracy is that each sovereign citizen will always vote in the public interest for the safety and welfare of all. But what does happen is that he votes his own self-interest as he sees it… which for the majority translates as ‘Bread and Circuses.’
‘Bread and Circuses’ is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader—the barbarians enter Rome.”
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.
However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.
One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.
And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.
If Labour are only 20 seats behind then EICIPM:
Lab - 266 Con - 286 LD - 25 SNP - 50 Oth - 5 NI - 18
Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.
If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.
Do you really think a five party coalition that still doesn't have a majority, let alone a working majority, is going to be a goer? It would be an absolute disaster and would barely last a few months.
Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
I agree, I don't think the mansion tax is a good idea (property rights, targets everyone when it should target just foreign 'investors' etc.) but the idea it would affect many people or their votes is bizarre. Out of touch by the Conservative leadership.
Agreed but would make three points:-
1. Near where I live, 3-bedroom terraced houses are being marketed at £1.5 mio, quite a jump from recent sale prices. If house prices carry on rising at the rate they are, it won't be long before they turn into "mansions". 2. Anyone thinking the threshold will be kept at £2mio is living in La-La-Land, IMO. There is a high risk/probability that the threshold will be lowered to £1mio or £750K, as some Labour MPs have suggested. All taxes start out as small taxes on a few rich people and end up, pretty quickly, being large taxes on everyone. This tax will be no exception. 3. It's a tax which penalises those who live in their house a long time i.e. those who treat property as a home rather than as an investment. And it taxes people for a failure of government policy i.e. the failure to increase the supply of housing. Like many Labour policies it punishes those who do the right thing.
The Tories should have been making these points. They should have been unscrupulous and talked right from the start about the terraced house tax and kept on repeating this (even though it's not currently true) in the same way that Labour talks about the bedroom tax which is not a tax.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.
However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.
One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.
And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.
If Labour are only 20 seats behind then EICIPM:
Lab - 266 Con - 286 LD - 25 SNP - 50 Oth - 5 NI - 18
Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.
If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.
I think at 20 seats behind there would be enough internal Labour pressure to have Ed pass on PMship.
Bah, it's not like 2010 when they were clearly exhausted, and the way politics is moving if they won't govern without a near-majority then they may never govern again. If they've got the numbers Ed will be PM.
Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
I agree, I don't think the mansion tax is a good idea (property rights, targets everyone when it should target just foreign 'investors' etc.) but the idea it would affect many people or their votes is bizarre. Out of touch by the Conservative leadership.
No tax rises are a particularly good idea. The mansion tax will probably raise very little and the proceeds wasted.
But you have to win elections and that requires some political nous. It's gesture politics, I acknowledge. But it's good politics because it seems fair to lots of people in the middle.
If anyone wants to offer me £160k for my 4 bedroomed semi in a genuinely decent area with excellent local schools, 10 minute commute from central Leeds, I'll snatch their hand off.
Anyone who believes modestly higher taxes on a £2million property is a net vote loser is utterly detached from the reality of life in Yorkshire or, for that matter, most of the country.
“The America of my time line is a laboratory example of what can happen to democracies, what has eventually happened to all perfect democracies throughout all histories. A perfect democracy, a ‘warm body’ democracy in which every adult may vote and all votes count equally, has no internal feedback for self-correction. It depends solely on the wisdom and self-restraint of citizens… which is opposed by the folly and lack of self-restraint of other citizens. What is supposed to happen in a democracy is that each sovereign citizen will always vote in the public interest for the safety and welfare of all. But what does happen is that he votes his own self-interest as he sees it… which for the majority translates as ‘Bread and Circuses.’
‘Bread and Circuses’ is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader—the barbarians enter Rome.”
Which period of perfect democracy was he describing? The period of segregation, when most black citizens were not allowed to vote? Or the time before that, when the wealth of the nation was built on the back of slavery?
This could all come down to the simple reason I abandoned the Tories. The recovery has not got beyond the pockets of the banks and the rich. Voters may prefer Cameron and might be wary of Ed. There is however an underlying resentment that the rich have not been brought to heel, that taxes are not paid by the very wealthiest corps and people and so why should we face austerity if it benefits us not a jot? There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority
Once again in my constituency I simply have to spunk my vote on the the LibDems when me, and a couple of thousand others like me, could have voted tory and seen Ed Balls heading for the dole office rather than Downing Street. I'll sit tight for ERS and CT and interest rates and whatever to go up and properly fuck me up. Thanks tories.
So it's the Tories fault if Labour hike up taxes, because you voted for the LibDems. Weird.
“The America of my time line is a laboratory example of what can happen to democracies, what has eventually happened to all perfect democracies throughout all histories. A perfect democracy, a ‘warm body’ democracy in which every adult may vote and all votes count equally, has no internal feedback for self-correction. It depends solely on the wisdom and self-restraint of citizens… which is opposed by the folly and lack of self-restraint of other citizens. What is supposed to happen in a democracy is that each sovereign citizen will always vote in the public interest for the safety and welfare of all. But what does happen is that he votes his own self-interest as he sees it… which for the majority translates as ‘Bread and Circuses.’
‘Bread and Circuses’ is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader—the barbarians enter Rome.”
cameron odds on to be PM but you can still back con/libdem coalition at 5/2 and con minority at 13/2 (both skybet). labour minority price has shortened even as Ed PM has gone odds against.
This could all come down to the simple reason I abandoned the Tories. The recovery has not got beyond the pockets of the banks and the rich. Voters may prefer Cameron and might be wary of Ed. There is however an underlying resentment that the rich have not been brought to heel, that taxes are not paid by the very wealthiest corps and people and so why should we face austerity if it benefits us not a jot? There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority
.
Once again in my constituency I simply have to spunk my vote on the the LibDems when me, and a couple of thousand others like me, could have voted tory and seen Ed Balls heading for the dole office rather than Downing Street. I'll sit tight for ERS and CT and interest rates and whatever to go up and properly fuck me up. Thanks tories
I have read some nonsense on here but this is up with the best
Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
I agree, I don't think the mansion tax is a good idea (property rights, targets everyone when it should target just foreign 'investors' etc.) but the idea it would affect many people or their votes is bizarre. Out of touch by the Conservative leadership.
No tax rises are a particularly good idea. The mansion tax will probably raise very little and the proceeds wasted.
But you have to win elections and that requires some political nous. It's gesture politics, I acknowledge. But it's good politics because it seems fair to lots of people in the middle.
If anyone wants to offer me £160k for my 4 bedroomed semi in a genuinely decent area with excellent local schools, 10 minute commute from central Leeds, I'll snatch their hand off.
Anyone who believes modestly higher taxes on a £2million property is a net vote loser is utterly detached from the reality of life in Yorkshire or, for that matter, most of the country.
If there is going to be one, the mansion tax should be imposed on properties everywhere in the country i.e. on the top priced houses everywhere. Everyone should contribute to the NHS not just a few people. And it would be interesting to see how popular such a tax is when the relatively asset wealthy in regions a long way from London also have to pay it.
James Parker, the Green candidate for the south London marginal of Eltham, has told his supporters they should give their votes to Labour, Jessica Elgot reports.
Parker, whose south London constituency is a Labour seat with a slim marginal of under 1,700 votes, told the Guardian he wanted to see Ed Miliband as prime minister.
“If you are voting Green in Eltham as a protest, do vote for Clive Efford, the Labour candidate,” Parker said. “If you really feel Green in your heart, then vote for me, but it is more important that we don’t have a Conservative government.”
Parker, who said he was genuinely still torn as to whether he would vote for himself, said he was hoping for Green victories in some of the closer seats, like Brighton Pavilion and Bristol West, but said he did not want people to vote Green where candidates, like him, could not win and where Labour was battling Tories.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
Why are the polls getting it wrong?
It may not be the pollsters or punters getting it wrong. It could be the dammned voters getting it wrong!
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
If Cameron is 3-4% ahead on votes he will be well ahead on seats (20-30?), in that situation I'd say he is highly likely to be PM: the Legitimacy Question.
However, as may be clear - ! - I doubt the Tories will even be 2% ahead (at most) and Labour will probably have the edge in seats.
One of us is going to be wrong. Your prediction is interesting to me, as you were so accurate on the indyref. But I remain despondent about Dave's chances.
And now I am going to go and see my girlfriend the policewoman, who is guarding the Polling Station at Primrose hill! I may bribe her to bar a few shifty, unsavoury, dishevelled local types from entering- playwrights, actors, musicians, Labour bigwigs, etc.
If Labour are only 20 seats behind then EICIPM:
Lab - 266 Con - 286 LD - 25 SNP - 50 Oth - 5 NI - 18
Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.
If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.
Do you really think a five party coalition that still doesn't have a majority, let alone a working majority, is going to be a goer? It would be an absolute disaster and would barely last a few months.
It doesn't have to be a coalition. The question is Ed or Dave. Look at it the other way round: that 320 is a guaranteed blocker for Dave. He would need virtually every other MP in the house, every time. And that's what would guarantee Ed the office. You're right that it wouldn't be very stable (though don't forget the Lib Dems, on offer to either side), but it would be more stable than the alternative and that's all that would matter.
Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
I agree, I don't think the mansion tax is a good idea (property rights, targets everyone when it should target just foreign 'investors' etc.) but the idea it would affect many people or their votes is bizarre. Out of touch by the Conservative leadership.
No tax rises are a particularly good idea. The mansion tax will probably raise very little and the proceeds wasted.
But you have to win elections and that requires some political nous. It's gesture politics, I acknowledge. But it's good politics because it seems fair to lots of people in the middle.
If anyone wants to offer me £160k for my 4 bedroomed semi in a genuinely decent area with excellent local schools, 10 minute commute from central Leeds, I'll snatch their hand off.
Anyone who believes modestly higher taxes on a £2million property is a net vote loser is utterly detached from the reality of life in Yorkshire or, for that matter, most of the country.
If there is going to be one, the mansion tax should be imposed on properties everywhere in the country i.e. on the top priced houses everywhere. Everyone should contribute to the NHS not just a few people. And it would be interesting to see how popular such a tax is when the relatively asset wealthy in regions a long way from London also have to pay it.
True. You could decide what a "mansion" was by eg number of bedrooms or floor area, and then even it out across the country.
If such a tax were necessary. People already pay a tax based on the price of the property, it's called Stamp Duty.
I've slapped £20 on the Most seats market taking my election exposure up to £570. It would be rude not to at those prices.
Just laid the Tories to win a ton
My £20 is hedged in 5 pound increments down to evens. I feel like I am recreating my doomed attempt at picking up pennies in front of the IndyRef steamroller. But in miniature.
James Parker, the Green candidate for the south London marginal of Eltham, has told his supporters they should give their votes to Labour, Jessica Elgot reports.
Parker, whose south London constituency is a Labour seat with a slim marginal of under 1,700 votes, told the Guardian he wanted to see Ed Miliband as prime minister.
“If you are voting Green in Eltham as a protest, do vote for Clive Efford, the Labour candidate,” Parker said. “If you really feel Green in your heart, then vote for me, but it is more important that we don’t have a Conservative government.”
Parker, who said he was genuinely still torn as to whether he would vote for himself, said he was hoping for Green victories in some of the closer seats, like Brighton Pavilion and Bristol West, but said he did not want people to vote Green where candidates, like him, could not win and where Labour was battling Tories.
On next PM markets, does it count if the next PM only lasts a few days / weeks?
There seems to be quite a bit of uncertainty on how and when some of these will be settled.
The Times suggesting on their front page this morning that HMQ will deliver Cameron's speech on 27th unless he chooses to resign first only muddies the waters even more.
Great sight at polling station in central Oxford - undergrads doing finals emerging from polling station in subfusc covered in silly string, party hats etc - democracy is a wonderful thing to behold
On next PM markets, does it count if the next PM only lasts a few days / weeks?
Very good question. racing post pullout yesterday said Ladbrokes, Coral and Paddys would pay out on "next government formed" " regardless of whether it survives its first encounter with house of commons". which i take to mean even if a queens speech is defeated.
James Parker, the Green candidate for the south London marginal of Eltham, has told his supporters they should give their votes to Labour, Jessica Elgot reports.
Parker, whose south London constituency is a Labour seat with a slim marginal of under 1,700 votes, told the Guardian he wanted to see Ed Miliband as prime minister.
“If you are voting Green in Eltham as a protest, do vote for Clive Efford, the Labour candidate,” Parker said. “If you really feel Green in your heart, then vote for me, but it is more important that we don’t have a Conservative government.”
Parker, who said he was genuinely still torn as to whether he would vote for himself, said he was hoping for Green victories in some of the closer seats, like Brighton Pavilion and Bristol West, but said he did not want people to vote Green where candidates, like him, could not win and where Labour was battling Tories.
Wow! That's extraordinary. I wonder what Green HQ make of that? I imagine they will be charging him back his lost deposit, and as much as they've spent of leaflets for him, as an absolute minimum.
“The America of my time line is a laboratory example of what can happen to democracies, what has eventually happened to all perfect democracies throughout all histories. A perfect democracy, a ‘warm body’ democracy in which every adult may vote and all votes count equally, has no internal feedback for self-correction. It depends solely on the wisdom and self-restraint of citizens… which is opposed by the folly and lack of self-restraint of other citizens. What is supposed to happen in a democracy is that each sovereign citizen will always vote in the public interest for the safety and welfare of all. But what does happen is that he votes his own self-interest as he sees it… which for the majority translates as ‘Bread and Circuses.’
‘Bread and Circuses’ is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader—the barbarians enter Rome.”
An electorate will always tend to vote for its own interests. Restricting the franchise merely means that a different group of people vote in their own interests.
The trick is somehow developing a culture with the ongoing and future public good is valued sufficiently highly. To use your analogy, the problem was not that Rome voted itself bread and circuses - which in any case, it didn't particularly: the most extravagant games and central dispersal of funds came from emperors, not the Senate - but that the country became fat and lazy on the riches of empire and lost the discipline, hunger and sense of civic honour that built it in the first place.
James Parker, the Green candidate for the south London marginal of Eltham, has told his supporters they should give their votes to Labour, Jessica Elgot reports.
Parker, whose south London constituency is a Labour seat with a slim marginal of under 1,700 votes, told the Guardian he wanted to see Ed Miliband as prime minister.
“If you are voting Green in Eltham as a protest, do vote for Clive Efford, the Labour candidate,” Parker said. “If you really feel Green in your heart, then vote for me, but it is more important that we don’t have a Conservative government.”
Parker, who said he was genuinely still torn as to whether he would vote for himself, said he was hoping for Green victories in some of the closer seats, like Brighton Pavilion and Bristol West, but said he did not want people to vote Green where candidates, like him, could not win and where Labour was battling Tories.
Dear ms cycle free you appear to be conducting a postmortem before the patient has been pronounced dead.
Well we have to fill the time!
Even if the Tories win I still think my points are valid.
I honestly don't know who will win. But I have not been impressed by the Tories as politicians, as communicators, as people who have to change the terms of trade of how the debate, the national conversation is conducted - something which every successful politician needs to do - even though they have been reasonably competent and have with the Lib Dems, implemented some good policies.
The latter is not a story: inflation at 0% is not a story Why having sound money matters - because it helps you save, plan, budget, get on with your life is a story. Cutting public services is not a story - or not a good one. Explaining that the state can only spend your money and it has to prioritise and has to do what it chooses to do well rather than lots of things badly and this is what we are prioritising and why is a story.
The story that any political party has to tell about itself, about us, about the country has to be said every day in big ways and small, in what it does, in how it does it, in the people it promotes and the people it doesn't, in the people it associates with, in how it treats people and talks about them. It is not something which you do weeks before an election in a manifesto.
Honestly how hard is it for these Tory, Labour and Lib Dem boobies to understand this. All those SPADs studying PPE and they haven't the first clue about politics or about how to communicate.
It's not media training these twits needs. The first thing you need when you communicate - the only important thing you need - is something to say, something that you want to say.
The reason the manifestos are so bland and manicured and vacuous and bitty is because the parties have nothing, really, to say.
100 years ago almost to the minute, the waters closed over the Lusitania....
70 years ago, almost to the minute, the curtain drew on the Third Reich.
VE Day = Victory over Ed day?
or
VE Day = Victory over Etonians Day?
I am calling Ilford North for Ed
On what evidence? I have been knocking on the doors there for many months, my hunch is that labour will win but there is no firm evidence one way or the other at the moment
Comments
But yeah, there's a lot of straw clutching going to be going on in some quarters.
The anger stage is not far away now.
Apols if we knew this.
Early figures must tie in with Kellners thoughts! Lol
Or not
He said, tomorrow it will be up when Cameron comes back. Stupid git !
*ICM update*
*ICM update*
http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_final_poll_FINAL.pdf
Lab lead 35 to Con 34!
Lab 35 (+3)
Con 34 (-1)
UKIP 11(-2)
LD 9 (nc)
Grn 4 (-1)
In case anyone missed it, there was an interesting piece on Shadsy on fivethirtyeight.com a couple of days ago. I'm not sure he was supposed to admit that price-sensitive punters get their accounts closed.
Once again - sorry!
Or not
If we see a decent Lab plurality, will Kellner have to answer for predicting against Yougov?
Lab - 266
Con - 286
LD - 25
SNP - 50
Oth - 5
NI - 18
Lab+SNP+PC+Grn+SDLP=320, which will be enough.
If Labour is 30 seats behind, that does then enter knife-edge territory and at that point legitimacy does come into play.
If we see the opposite, will the pollsters tell us what happened or will they just amend their methodology?,
I apologise for the name calling. It just frustrates me that there is no balance on this blog at times. It's well know that this is a Tory hangout joint and I should take cognisance of that before I post.
Once again - sorry!
Apology accepted.
Hopefully both?
"Vote Conservative Today" (small)
"Your vote will deliver... Competent leadership OR Coalition of chaos" (larger)
Turnout comment.
When I voted, I noted the polling station was busy.
Apparently in one hour this morning they had 7x as many voters, as in that same period last year.
This year is a GE, of course, but it seems turnout will be high. Weather very nice too.
If not from the pollsters themselves, we will certainly see a post-mortem on election polling from the academics at some point.
Lots of happy lawyers ordering supercars today, I hear.
So is that it then?
Can I post my final ELBOW?
Goodness knows what's actually going on.
Lots of happy lawyers ordering supercars today, I hear.
Lab plurality of one and they take Darlington by 50 from UKIP.
I'm calling it now!
YG = 0.2% Lab lead
Non-YG = 0.4% Lab lead
Phones = 0.5% Con lead (ICM effect!)
Onlines = 0.5% Lab lead
Official figs. inc. everyone: (brackets = change on "week"-ending 30th April)
Lab 33.6 (-0.3)
Con 33.3 (-0.5)
UKIP 13.2 (+0.3)
LD 9.0 (+0.5)
Grn 4.8 (-0.2)
Lab lead 0.3 (+0.2)
Which is a total cop out in my opinion.
“The America of my time line is a laboratory example of what can happen to democracies, what has eventually happened to all perfect democracies throughout all histories. A perfect democracy, a ‘warm body’ democracy in which every adult may vote and all votes count equally, has no internal feedback for self-correction. It depends solely on the wisdom and self-restraint of citizens… which is opposed by the folly and lack of self-restraint of other citizens. What is supposed to happen in a democracy is that each sovereign citizen will always vote in the public interest for the safety and welfare of all. But what does happen is that he votes his own self-interest as he sees it… which for the majority translates as ‘Bread and Circuses.’
‘Bread and Circuses’ is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader—the barbarians enter Rome.”
or
VE Day = Victory over Etonians Day?
1. Near where I live, 3-bedroom terraced houses are being marketed at £1.5 mio, quite a jump from recent sale prices. If house prices carry on rising at the rate they are, it won't be long before they turn into "mansions".
2. Anyone thinking the threshold will be kept at £2mio is living in La-La-Land, IMO. There is a high risk/probability that the threshold will be lowered to £1mio or £750K, as some Labour MPs have suggested. All taxes start out as small taxes on a few rich people and end up, pretty quickly, being large taxes on everyone. This tax will be no exception.
3. It's a tax which penalises those who live in their house a long time i.e. those who treat property as a home rather than as an investment. And it taxes people for a failure of government policy i.e. the failure to increase the supply of housing. Like many Labour policies it punishes those who do the right thing.
The Tories should have been making these points. They should have been unscrupulous and talked right from the start about the terraced house tax and kept on repeating this (even though it's not currently true) in the same way that Labour talks about the bedroom tax which is not a tax.
But you have to win elections and that requires some political nous. It's gesture politics, I acknowledge. But it's good politics because it seems fair to lots of people in the middle.
If anyone wants to offer me £160k for my 4 bedroomed semi in a genuinely decent area with excellent local schools, 10 minute commute from central Leeds, I'll snatch their hand off.
Anyone who believes modestly higher taxes on a £2million property is a net vote loser is utterly detached from the reality of life in Yorkshire or, for that matter, most of the country.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32625968
Labour = Paul party
To five more years of the most glorious coalition government that this country has ever known since the turn of the century.
True. You could decide what a "mansion" was by eg number of bedrooms or floor area, and then even it out across the country.
If such a tax were necessary. People already pay a tax based on the price of the property, it's called Stamp Duty.
Wow! That's extraordinary. I wonder what Green HQ make of that?
The Times suggesting on their front page this morning that HMQ will deliver Cameron's speech on 27th unless he chooses to resign first only muddies the waters even more.
May2015 Election ✔ @May2015NS
So this is how it ends. May2015's final Poll of Polls:
Tory—33.8%
Lab—33.7%
Ukip—12.6%
LibDem—9.2%
Green—4.6%
Tied. pic.twitter.com/k5kQ7K5JSE
I imagine they will be charging him back his lost deposit, and as much as they've spent of leaflets for him, as an absolute minimum.
The trick is somehow developing a culture with the ongoing and future public good is valued sufficiently highly. To use your analogy, the problem was not that Rome voted itself bread and circuses - which in any case, it didn't particularly: the most extravagant games and central dispersal of funds came from emperors, not the Senate - but that the country became fat and lazy on the riches of empire and lost the discipline, hunger and sense of civic honour that built it in the first place.
EICIPM
http://leightonvw.com/2015-uk-election-forecast/
With any other party, yes for sure. But you never know with the Greens.
My Dad has just voted Lib Dem.
He generally thinks the Lib Dems are a bunch of wet lettuces, and has voted Tory since 1987 but Clegg's done fine.
So came as a real shock.
Even if the Tories win I still think my points are valid.
I honestly don't know who will win. But I have not been impressed by the Tories as politicians, as communicators, as people who have to change the terms of trade of how the debate, the national conversation is conducted - something which every successful politician needs to do - even though they have been reasonably competent and have with the Lib Dems, implemented some good policies.
The latter is not a story: inflation at 0% is not a story Why having sound money matters - because it helps you save, plan, budget, get on with your life is a story. Cutting public services is not a story - or not a good one. Explaining that the state can only spend your money and it has to prioritise and has to do what it chooses to do well rather than lots of things badly and this is what we are prioritising and why is a story.
The story that any political party has to tell about itself, about us, about the country has to be said every day in big ways and small, in what it does, in how it does it, in the people it promotes and the people it doesn't, in the people it associates with, in how it treats people and talks about them. It is not something which you do weeks before an election in a manifesto.
Honestly how hard is it for these Tory, Labour and Lib Dem boobies to understand this. All those SPADs studying PPE and they haven't the first clue about politics or about how to communicate.
It's not media training these twits needs. The first thing you need when you communicate - the only important thing you need - is something to say, something that you want to say.
The reason the manifestos are so bland and manicured and vacuous and bitty is because the parties have nothing, really, to say.
Funny, my old grandad RIP used to say 'all mouth and trousers'. I suppose he had it wrong, or maybe that was a regional variant.