Lab-LD coalition at c.10-1 on Betfair might be value.
If Labour do get to 280 seats, I fancy they'd rather hook up with them and lock the SNP out. Yes, they'd be c.20 seats short. But that'd be fine unless the SNP hooked up with the Tories on key votes.
This could all come down to the simple reason I abandoned the Tories. The recovery has not got beyond the pockets of the banks and the rich. Voters may prefer Cameron and might be wary of Ed. There is however an underlying resentment that the rich have not been brought to heel, that taxes are not paid by the very wealthiest corps and people and so why should we face austerity if it benefits us not a jot? There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority
What i don't understand is how a consistent and clear trend to the Tories in the phone polls since Jan/Feb would level out and all return to Labour in the last 36 hours.
Makes no sense to me at all.
Nothing has changed in the last 36 hours or even two four weeks.
The only small difference that has been was.
Arguably the key failing in the Blue campaign was the inability to decide whether the line was "Ed eats babies" or "Ed is too incompetent to eat babies and looks stupid when he tries".
And - their biggest failing to my mind - too many of them have not thought of their policies in terms of how they affect ordinary people. It's fine to worry about business and rich people like, say, Dyson creating jobs etc but they needed to be much more focused on, say, the 6-man business struggling to survive (there was a lovely quote by a stonemason in EdM's Doncaster constituency in the Evening Standard last night saying that they were nearly bankrupt at the end of the last Labour government) and the ordinary family. Funnily enough I think Osborne probably gets this more than Cameron but they don't have enough people in their party who have lived ordinary lives and experienced what it is like to be unemployed, made redundant, worry about redundancy, worry about savings and pensions and where to live etc. I don't think Labour have such people either. None of them do, really.
Which is why we have a choice between the Crap, the Credulous and the Complacent.
Spot on, Cyclefree. Can you please consider running for the leadership of that bunch of muppets in the Tory party?
I'd vote for you.
Me too - erudite points well made as usual. But please no more jokes about Ed having us join the Euro!
If the turnout is up that is probably extremely good news for UKIP and pretty good news for Labour.
In every election since 1979 Labour + LibDems have gained a steady 15.5m votes +/- a very small number. The split of those votes has varied. Likewise Tory + Did Not Vote added up to a static total. High turnouts have historically indicated a Tory win.
This time round will be fascinating to analyse. I suspect the Lab + LD thing may remain (with Labour hoovering up a big chunk of 2010 LDs). I suspect the Tory/turnout link may not - as UKIP eat into the DNV vote with newly energised voters.
That is the kind of interesting fact that you learn every day on pb
Actually '97 was a bit of an anomaly, with Labour's big increase including some ex-Tory votes. But generally speaking 'the left' (as traditionally viewed = Lab and LD) were fighting over one pot while 'the right' (Tories and apathetic) were fighting over another.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·4 mins4 minutes ago The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones is a complete prat if he thinks Tory HQ is relying on national opinion polls to assess the position.
I'm still with the betting fraternity but painfully aware that OGH warned a few days ago that the punters (not pollsters), while united in their opinion (IYKWIM), can be very VERY wrong. He also pointed out that pollsters have a far better record overall, however difficult one (I mean I) might find that to believe this morning.
And yet, and yet... An Ed win on VI seems so counterintuitive given the huge weight of contrary (anti-Ed) opinion on the very important qualitative questions **in the same polls**. Surely voters do not, en masse, vote against their own known/express preferences? Do they? Are we all mad, my masters?
Well, I dunno. To coin a phrase, all bets are off.
(Um, can one be excommunicated for saying such a thing on here?)
They know Ed isn't their preferred PM, and Labour will be loose with the purse strings, but they don't care. They think Labour has its heart in the right place and they want The Tories Out.
That's the mindset of the voters that will matter.
The phone polls have moved a couple of points to Labour and the onlines have maybe just edged a fraction to the Tories but not by as much. Methodology differences and wild conspiracy theories aside the simplest explanation for the clustering of the polls is they are actually broadly right. If it does end up 37/32 or 32/37 I assume a helpline for distressed pollsters will have to be set up, as no amount of them saying "MOE" will be heard in the din of inquest.
My broader question is (and I write obviously before the result!) though is this a "good one to lose" as long as it's a narrow loss? I sense Ed might think this and hence his slight equivocation on "no deal etc" with the SNP, and it would explain Dave's seemingly "not that bothered really" approach, till it got a bit too obvious and he had to literally roll his sleeves up.
If Dave does win, it's wafer thin stuff based on 290 odd plus 25/35 Lib Dems (if they play ball), plus maybe 8-10 from NI. Given EU referendum, and a still big hole to fix in the public finances, it makes J Major's 1992-97 spell look a piece of cake. Longer term you can't say to the Kippers it's "their fault" Ed is there implementing policies they will loathe. Lose, however, and you give some Kippers at least pause for thought that this splitting the Right stuff isn't quite so smart as it may have seemed, and you can point out to everyone south of Berwick every time something favours the Scots (whether it does or not), and "only the Tories can fix it".
If Ed wins it seems he'd have to be right at the top of expectations to only need the Lib Dems and so is almost certainly going to be Sturgeon's hostage for as little or long as she sees fit (three years?) Anything above 280 odd seats (possibly less) and it seems he cannot "avoid" being in Government so to speak. At which point why would any left wing Scot vote SLAB again? Murphy's maxim of "vote SNP get the Tories" would've been disproved and even better you have a Labour Govt exactly where Scotland wants it and in a great position to extract goodies. They can't overplay that one sure and there are limits (Trident will get renewed in some form), but the mountain this would leave SLAB to climb in the foreseeable future looks huge. Conversely, if Dave's still there come tea time tomorrow - Murphy was right and it's a stick to herd voters back to SLAB in future (see Kipper playbook above).
Oh - and there's a big hole in the finances that non Dom's, mansions, bankers, and SNP accounting won't fill in the real world, so you'll have to make some real decisions that will cheese a lot of people off, that you've spent five years telling "someone else will pay".
Dead cert winners tomorrow, SNP, likely winners DUP (how much gold will it take to pave the streets of Ballymena exactly?), surprise winners the Lib Dem's (remember them?). Could well end up wielding almost as much influence on 10% and 30 seats as twice that now.
If the turnout is up that is probably extremely good news for UKIP and pretty good news for Labour.
In every election since 1979 Labour + LibDems have gained a steady 15.5m votes +/- a very small number. The split of those votes has varied. Likewise Tory + Did Not Vote added up to a static total. High turnouts have historically indicated a Tory win.
This time round will be fascinating to analyse. I suspect the Lab + LD thing may remain (with Labour hoovering up a big chunk of 2010 LDs). I suspect the Tory/turnout link may not - as UKIP eat into the DNV vote with newly energised voters.
The implication that most new non-voters since 1979 are former Tories is absurd and is contradicted by both common sense and the type of seats which have the lowest turnouts (ie. usually safe Labour urban/inner city seats).
It is possible to find statistical patterns to fit all kinds of rubbish theories.
Worth saying also that 1983 (biggest Tory victory since the war) had a very low turnout by the standard of the times - lower than 79, 87 and 92.
Surely it could just be voters swinging rather than Tories picking up non voters
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·4 mins4 minutes ago The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones is a complete prat if he thinks Tory HQ is relying on national opinion polls to assess the position.
Don't think you needed to qualify the first part of that sentence!
A pity the new Conservative IT system (votesource) is not working as well as the old system (merlin). The production of up to the minute knock-up lists for GOTV operation is currently impossible.
Up in Annan, in Dumfries and Galloway, Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson has flagged claims of potentially serious intimidation outside a polling station.
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP Disturbing reports of people being turned away from an Annan polling station by burly blokes if they say they don't support a certain party.
whether the line was "Ed eats babies" or "Ed is too incompetent to eat babies and looks stupid when he tries".
They should have - right from the moment they were elected - been explaining day in day out how badly Labour left the economy, not just in terms of deficit which is too abstract but in terms of every day stuff e.g. this PFI contract means that his hospital has to pay £859 to change a lightbulb for the next thousand years or whatever. They needed to do this so that they could explain and get people to understand why savings needed to be made, where and why Labour could not be trusted and they could. But they didn't do that and have rather lazily assumed that the relative good economic news spoke for itself. Whereas - either people don't notice - or, if they do, they think that it's safe to And - their biggest failing to my mind - too many of them have not thought of their policies in terms of how they affect ordinary people. It's fine to worry about business and rich people like, say, Dyson creating jobs etc but they needed to be much more focused on, say, the 6-man business struggling to survive (there was a lovely quote by a stonemason in EdM's Doncaster constituency in the Evening Standard last night saying that they were nearly bankrupt at the end of the last Labour government) and the ordinary family. Funnily enough I think Osborne probably gets this more than Cameron but they don't have enough people in their party who have lived ordinary lives and experienced what it is like to be unemployed, made redundant, worry about redundancy, worry about savings and pensions and where to live etc. I don't think Labour have such people either. None of them do, really.
Which is why we have a choice between the Crap, the Credulous and the Complacent.
Spot on, Cyclefree. Can you please consider running for the leadership of that bunch of muppets in the Tory party?
I'd vote for you.
Thank you.
Do you think Britain is ready for another bossy, opinionated, middle-aged woman to run it??!!
Well, Scotland is!
And, that's nonsense. I found you perfectly charming when I met you, once I'd got you off the topic of mumsnet ;-)
God, I'd forgotten that! (The mumsnet discussion. Not you, of course.)
I'm probably doing more good for the country catching City fraudsters. Some of them anyway.
And I have far too many skeletons in my cupboard, not to mention a family to protect and other interesting things to do with my life.
And - their biggest failing to my mind - too many of them have not thought of their policies in terms of how they affect ordinary people. It's fine to worry about business and rich people like, say, Dyson creating jobs etc but they needed to be much more focused on, say, the 6-man business struggling to survive (there was a lovely quote by a stonemason in EdM's Doncaster constituency in the Evening Standard last night saying that they were nearly bankrupt at the end of the last Labour government)
I also agree with this. For many of the small businesses who form my customer base, the 13 years from 1997 to 2010 where a real trial. Many of them did not survive and in a way the Tories have benefited from this Darwinian phase because only the strongest businesses survived.
Gordon Brown was, in my opinion, a small businesses worst nightmare. I dread to think what Ed could do...
I have noticed that JackW has recently stopped writing "Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister" in his posts. I presume it's because he now secretly accepts Ed has a very good chance of reaching no.10 and is trying to gradually backtrack without looking too stupid. I think it's very likely ARSE will be way off this time and given the arrogant certainty of his posts Mr W will hardly be able to complain about the ridicule he may well attract tomorrow.
With 54% of Scots feeling the UK MSM and UK Politicians have become more hostile, the bizarre thing is that they may well have just killed off the Union. The constant demonising of the SNP by the Tories and the MSM has effectively done the SNPs work for them. History may yet judge David Cameron as the man who first saved and then destroyed the UK by putting party before country.
I think irrespective of todays results in Scotland, the SNP surge is about to get super charged. Holyrood 2016 is likely to result in the 3 "mainstream parties" being squeezed in a pincer movement by the SNP, Greens and rather bizarrely UKIP.
I'd be surprised if a poll of the English showed different results to that picture.
I also think Labour will stage a resurgence in Scotland over the next 9 months to draw neck-and-neck with the Nats by early next year.
I'd be interested to know a little about why you forecast that resurgence. Of course, the voting system in itself is so different that Labour will inevitably show a 'resurgence' which is real if only in terms of seats in Holyrood compared to Westminster. Remember that the Holyrood system uses the list vote to compensate losers in the FPTP constituency element.
I think that the dominance of the SNP will increasingly be seen as unhealthy. I think the shine will start to wear off Nicola. I also think the behaviour of SNP Westminster MPs as they bargain for pork will taint the party a little and show them as "the same as the rest". This will lead to a return to previous allegiances and Labour will be the key beneficiary. The inability of the SNP MPs to have enough influence to "end austerity" will also push people away from them.
I could easily be wrong, but that's my reasoning (backed up by my gut).
I also agree with this. For many of the small businesses who form my customer base, the 13 years from 1997 to 2010 where a real trial. Many of them did not survive and in a way the Tories have benefited from this Darwinian phase because only the strongest businesses survived.
Gordon Brown was, in my opinion, a small businesses worst nightmare. I dread to think what Ed could do...
Gordon Brown, for all his many faults, was not deliberately anti-business in the way that Ed is.
So when Ed Miliband begins cuts, how does Russell Brand explain that to his fans?
He just says he has been let down, like all the rest of them...up the revolution...and by that time he will have a new book, new movie and still racking in the youtube revenue while being chauffeured around in the back of the merc...up the workers.
I don't see how people don't see through it. All he has done has taken Mark Thomas routine and made it more commercial and accessible for the current market and less funny.
Thomas can actually be extremely funny, his Bravo Figaro show was very touching. Thomas is always more open about the fact that he is very fortunate that he makes a good living from his brand of activist humour, and also doesn't take a tv crew to every single demo he decides to attend.
As PB's self-appointed fashion correspondent, here are my views on the outfits of the wives and female party leaders at the ballot station. SamCam - a bit nursey in that outfit but some men are turned on by that. Approve. Justine Miliband - Hmm. I feel she should have made more of an effort and it's not really co-ordinated. Miriam Clegg - stylish as always. Natalie Bennett. WTF? I thought the Greens believed in global warming so why is she wearing boots as if it's the middle of winter. Thumbs down. Leanne Wood - stylish but her hair would look better in a bob. Nicola Sturgeon. Very stylish. Perhaps a bit cocktail party-ish. She's probably got the champagne on ice for later
BTW when I voted this morning, on the ballot paper the Conservative candidate didn't give his address but just said "in the constituency". Is that usual?
Myriam's the stylish one. SamCam can look gorgeous but is sometimes a bit bland and I don't like the belts she has. Her outfit today was dull.
Whatever other qualities Justine M has, a sense of fashion and elegance is not one of them. Her outfit (if one can call it that) today looks like something chosen out of Oxfam - in 5 minutes - in the dark.
Hard at this moment to think of any very elegant well-dressed public figures, certainly in public life. Theresa May, maybe.
Helen Mirren knows how to do it.
"In Politics, if you want anything said, ask a man; if you want anything done, ask a woman!" - M. H. Thatcher, 1965.
This could all come down to the simple reason I abandoned the Tories. The recovery has not got beyond the pockets of the banks and the rich. Voters may prefer Cameron and might be wary of Ed. There is however an underlying resentment that the rich have not been brought to heel, that taxes are not paid by the very wealthiest corps and people and so why should we face austerity if it benefits us not a jot? There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority
Most of that is bollocks. The wealthy are paying a greater share than they ever did (or will) under Labour and millions are better off than they were, but I agree lots of people think like that and will vote against their better interests as a result
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·4 mins4 minutes ago The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones is a complete prat if he thinks Tory HQ is relying on national opinion polls to assess the position.
Are you confident Richard?
I must say I thought things would've moved towards the Tories at this point and I'd have bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share tonight.
whether the line was "Ed eats babies" or "Ed is too incompetent to eat babies and looks stupid when he tries".
They should have - right from the moment they were elected - been explaining day in day out how badly Labour left the economy, not just in terms of deficit which is too abstract but in terms of every day stuff e.g. this PFI contract means that his hospital has to pay £859 to change a lightbulb for the next thousand years or whatever. They needed to do this so that they could explain and get people to understand why savings needed to be made, where and why Labour could not be trusted and they could. But they didn't do that and have rather lazily assumed that the relative good economic news spoke for itself. Whereas - either people don't notice - or, if they do, they think that it's safe to And - their biggest failing to my mind - too many of them have not thought of their policies in terms of how they affect ordinary people. It's fine to worry about business and rich people like, say, Dyson creating jobs etc but they needed to be much more focused on, say, the 6-man business struggling to survive (there was a lovely quote by a stonemason in EdM's Doncaster constituency in the Evening Standard last night saying that they were nearly bankrupt at the end of the last Labour government) and the ordinary family. Funnily enough I think Osborne probably gets this more than Cameron but they don't have enough people in their party who have lived
Which is why we have a choice between the Crap, the Credulous and the Complacent.
Spot on, Cyclefree. Can you please consider running for the leadership of that bunch of muppets in the Tory party?
I'd vote for you.
Thank you.
Do you think Britain is ready for another bossy, opinionated, middle-aged woman to run it??!!
Well, Scotland is!
And, that's nonsense. I found you perfectly charming when I met you, once I'd got you off the topic of mumsnet ;-)
God, I'd forgotten that! (The mumsnet discussion. Not you, of course.)
I'm probably doing more good for the country catching City fraudsters. Some of them anyway.
And I have far too many skeletons in my cupboard, not to mention a family to protect and other interesting things to do with my life.
A pity the new Conservative IT system (votesource) is not working as well as the old system (merlin). The production of up to the minute knock-up lists for GOTV operation is currently impossible.
Interesting, is this something you're experiencing yourself or are you getting it from somewhere?
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
A pity the new Conservative IT system (votesource) is not working as well as the old system (merlin). The production of up to the minute knock-up lists for GOTV operation is currently impossible.
Interesting, is this something you're experiencing yourself or are you getting it from somewhere?
Wasn't this a theme in the 2012 US presidential election too?
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·4 mins4 minutes ago The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones is a complete prat if he thinks Tory HQ is relying on national opinion polls to assess the position.
yes we have experienced this, our seat is fairly safe so not a big issue but a problem for marginals, though a few have wisely chosen to stick with the old system, and some are working semi-manually off paper systems.
I will mention one thing about the polls though: from around the start of this year, and particularly during the campaign proper, I don't think I've ever seen such a mix of contradictory results and vague trends from opinion pollsters.
They've prided themselves on learning from 1992 and becoming pretty accurate, but it seems to me the situation on the ground is so unpredictable that the pollsters are finding it hard to predict too.
Very perculiar election. The exit poll will be interesting.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
Well, I hope we are both right and Labour do end up that far behind in the vote. It will be difficult to put together a convincing government with such a poor mandate.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
Why are the polls getting it wrong?
I don't think there has been anything in the last few weeks' polling to suggest there has been any great change in the position - we shouldn't get misled by random noise. So I think the polls are consistent with the Conservative lead of around 2% which has been my net estimate over the last couple of weeks. I then adjust that by the quite clear advantage which the Conservatives have on determination to vote. Of course this is little more than a hunch, but it's one based on experience; I made a similar adjustment to the IndyRef polling, and got it almost spot-on.
A statement from Darlington Council is expected soon.
Rumours that they have some ballots not containing all the candidates!
Popcorn sellers are praying it is the Kipper they have left off...
"A spokesperson for Darlington Borough Council said that voting in the general and local elections was continuing as normal in Darlington but that the name of one candidate, David Hodgson (UKIP) had been missed off ballot papers issued to one polling station in the borough. "
This could all come down to the simple reason I abandoned the Tories. The recovery has not got beyond the pockets of the banks and the rich. Voters may prefer Cameron and might be wary of Ed. There is however an underlying resentment that the rich have not been brought to heel, that taxes are not paid by the very wealthiest corps and people and so why should we face austerity if it benefits us not a jot? There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority
Sounds plausible. At the least, there is ample evidene Dave is more popular than Ed, and has better figures on some key policy areas, but something has prevented that from translating into more support, as at best Cameron managed to pip Labour to the post and win a narrow plurality but probably still unable to form a government.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·4 mins4 minutes ago The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones is a complete prat if he thinks Tory HQ is relying on national opinion polls to assess the position.
I must say I thought things with move towards the Tories at this point and I would've bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share.
Doesn't look likely now.
I think they will be 3% to 4% ahead on the national vote share. Whether that's enough to save us from Ed is unclear.
Why are the polls getting it wrong?
I don't think there has been anything in the last few weeks' polling to suggest there has been any great change in the position - we shouldn't get misled by random noise. So I think the polls are consistent with the Conservative lead of around 2% which has been my net estimate over the last couple of weeks. I then adjust that by the quite clear advantage which the Conservatives have on determination to vote. Of course this is little more than a hunch, but it's one based on experience; I made a similar adjustment to the IndyRef polling, and got it almost spot-on.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·4 mins4 minutes ago The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·4 mins4 minutes ago The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones is a complete prat if he thinks Tory HQ is relying on national opinion polls to assess the position.
A pity the new Conservative IT system (votesource) is not working as well as the old system (merlin). The production of up to the minute knock-up lists for GOTV operation is currently impossible.
Interesting, is this something you're experiencing yourself or are you getting it from somewhere?
Wasn't this a theme in the 2012 US presidential election too?
Also IIRC the previous system, Merlin, was out of action at the Eastleigh by-election: Some story involving a bankrupt contractor and inadequate disaster planning. (Hopefully someone can fill in the details and correct me if I'm misremembering.)
This could all come down to the simple reason I abandoned the Tories. The recovery has not got beyond the pockets of the banks and the rich. Voters may prefer Cameron and might be wary of Ed. There is however an underlying resentment that the rich have not been brought to heel, that taxes are not paid by the very wealthiest corps and people and so why should we face austerity if it benefits us not a jot? There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority
Sounds plausible. At the least, there is ample evidene Dave is more popular than Ed, and has better figures on some key policy areas, but something has prevented that from translating into more support, as at best Cameron managed to pip Labour to the post and win a narrow plurality but probably still unable to form a government.
Labour have also been lucky in that they seem to have retained some residual goodwill as a brand, somehow, even after their pretty catastrophic last outing.
A lot of people tend to view the Labour Party as having its heart in the right place, even if they don't get everything right. However valid that viewpoint is, it does appear to be one a lot of centrist/soft left acquaintances hold.
Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
This could all come down to the simple reason I abandoned the Tories. The recovery has not got beyond the pockets of the banks and the rich. Voters may prefer Cameron and might be wary of Ed. There is however an underlying resentment that the rich have not been brought to heel, that taxes are not paid by the very wealthiest corps and people and so why should we face austerity if it benefits us not a jot? There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority
I agree. The tiniest concession to taxing the rich - maybe a higher ceiling on Council Tax (if the mansion tax was unfeasible) - would have nullified the "they're a party for the rich" meme.
But no. They're a party for the rich.
What exciting game-changing policies do we get? An inheritance tax cut benefitting the richest and a policy allowing the poorest in society (in social housing) the right to buy. Oh, and with the money they've got spare having bought their council flat, maybe they could buy some Lloyds shares. Laughable.
I think the coalition has been pretty good all round considering the 2010 prognosis. I put this down to the LibDems.
I'm classic petit-bourgeoisie. Middle aged. Business owner. Home owner. Parent. Core vote, I should be.
But on the basis of the 2015 manifesto and the 2015 campaign and an evident detachment from the real lives that 90% of electors live, the tories deserve to go down. I'm actually annoyed at them that they couldn't make one, tiny, visible extra charge on people as rich as them. Just one.
Once again in my constituency I simply have to spunk my vote on the the LibDems when me, and a couple of thousand others like me, could have voted tory and seen Ed Balls heading for the dole office rather than Downing Street. I'll sit tight for ERS and CT and interest rates and whatever to go up and properly fuck me up. Thanks tories.
This could all come down to the simple reason I abandoned the Tories. The recovery has not got beyond the pockets of the banks and the rich. Voters may prefer Cameron and might be wary of Ed. There is however an underlying resentment that the rich have not been brought to heel, that taxes are not paid by the very wealthiest corps and people and so why should we face austerity if it benefits us not a jot? There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority
I agree. The tiniest concession to taxing the rich - maybe a higher ceiling on Council Tax (if the mansion tax was unfeasible) - would have nullified the "they're a party for the rich" meme.
But no. They're a party for the rich.
What exciting game-changing policies do we get? An inheritance tax cut benefitting the richest and a policy allowing the poorest in society (in social housing) the right to buy. Oh, and with the money they've got spare having bought their council flat, maybe they could buy some Lloyds shares. Laughable.
I think the coalition has been pretty good all round considering the 2010 prognosis. I put this down to the LibDems.
I'm classic petit-bourgeoisie. Middle aged. Business owner. Home owner. Parent. Core vote, I should be.
But on the basis of the 2015 manifesto and the 2015 campaign and an evident detachment from the real lives that 90% of electors live, the tories deserve to go down. I'm actually annoyed at them that they couldn't make one, tiny, visible extra charge on people as rich as them. Just one.
Once again in my constituency I simply have to spunk my vote on the the LibDems when me, and a couple of thousand others like me, could have voted tory and seen Ed Balls heading for the dole office rather than Downing Street. I'll sit tight for ERS and CT and interest rates and whatever to go up and properly fuck me up. Thanks tories.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·4 mins4 minutes ago The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones is a complete prat if he thinks Tory HQ is relying on national opinion polls to assess the position.
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·4 mins4 minutes ago The finally polls show a shift to Labour. They may be wrong. But imagine the scenes of panic in Tory HQ right now. And savour it.
Owen Jones is a complete prat if he thinks Tory HQ is relying on national opinion polls to assess the position.
Certainly not. They also look at tea leaves.
Absurd. They feel it in their water. It's the only safe way to predict.
I will mention one thing about the polls though: from around the start of this year, and particularly during the campaign proper, I don't think I've ever seen such a mix of contradictory results and vague trends from opinion pollsters.
If people are responding to polls primarily in terms of how they will vote tactically, then this is less susceptible to change.
If you're a Tory in a LD:Lab marginal and you're going to vote LD to keep out Labour, nothing said in the campaign is going to shift this. You may warm or cool towards Farage or Clegg or Cameron, but your vote isn't moving.
If seats were allocated by PR then you might but in FTPT to vote Tory in such circumstances is not just to waste a vote but to act against your own views.
Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
As PB's self-appointed fashion correspondent, here are my views on the outfits of the wives and female party leaders at the ballot station. SamCam - a bit nursey in that outfit but some men are turned on by that. Approve. Justine Miliband - Hmm. I feel she should have made more of an effort and it's not really co-ordinated. Miriam Clegg - stylish as always. Natalie Bennett. WTF? I thought the Greens believed in global warming so why is she wearing boots as if it's the middle of winter. Thumbs down. Leanne Wood - stylish but her hair would look better in a bob. Nicola Sturgeon. Very stylish. Perhaps a bit cocktail party-ish. She's probably got the champagne on ice for later
BTW when I voted this morning, on the ballot paper the Conservative candidate didn't give his address but just said "in the constituency". Is that usual?
Myriam's the stylish one. SamCam can look gorgeous but is sometimes a bit bland and I don't like the belts she has. Her outfit today was dull.
Whatever other qualities Justine M has, a sense of fashion and elegance is not one of them. Her outfit (if one can call it that) today looks like something chosen out of Oxfam - in 5 minutes - in the dark.
Hard at this moment to think of any very elegant well-dressed public figures, certainly in public life. Theresa May, maybe.
Helen Mirren knows how to do it.
"In Politics, if you want anything said, ask a man; if you want anything done, ask a woman!" - M. H. Thatcher, 1965.
Goodness, the tories on here seem to be pessimistic! Me, I still haven't a clue - could be anything from narrow Lab majority to Coalition 2.0 and everything in between as far as I'm concerned. The exit poll will be fascinating - and sadly, I'll have to retire to bed after it comes out.
Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
This is my 13th general election. I worked for Labour in1970 and called the result wrong on the night until Guildford was declared and then I realised I had deluded myself out of bias. Many people on here will do that today. I called it for Major in 1992. Today I have a gut feeling that Labour will win. There will be buyers regret very quickly and tremendous anger when Labour raid pension funds to fill the hole they will create in public finances. Still that is democracy I suppose. Even when I campaigned for Labour I was under no illusion that they were hopeless about balancing the books
Apropos of turnout... a few hours telling this morning in middle class area of Tooting saw turnout up about 15% on last election... Mansion Tax working for you, Sadiq? N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast. Fun this, huh? FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
Where in London is a bog standard 3-bed semi £2 million?
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
Classy response, Murali. Post your own experiences from this morning and I promise I won't call you names.
Comments
If Labour do get to 280 seats, I fancy they'd rather hook up with them and lock the SNP out. Yes, they'd be c.20 seats short. But that'd be fine unless the SNP hooked up with the Tories on key votes.
Which is unlikely.
There's your Labour plurality and Lab/SNP majority
That's the mindset of the voters that will matter.
The phone polls have moved a couple of points to Labour and the onlines have maybe just edged a fraction to the Tories but not by as much. Methodology differences and wild conspiracy theories aside the simplest explanation for the clustering of the polls is they are actually broadly right. If it does end up 37/32 or 32/37 I assume a helpline for distressed pollsters will have to be set up, as no amount of them saying "MOE" will be heard in the din of inquest.
My broader question is (and I write obviously before the result!) though is this a "good one to lose" as long as it's a narrow loss? I sense Ed might think this and hence his slight equivocation on "no deal etc" with the SNP, and it would explain Dave's seemingly "not that bothered really" approach, till it got a bit too obvious and he had to literally roll his sleeves up.
If Dave does win, it's wafer thin stuff based on 290 odd plus 25/35 Lib Dems (if they play ball), plus maybe 8-10 from NI. Given EU referendum, and a still big hole to fix in the public finances, it makes J Major's 1992-97 spell look a piece of cake. Longer term you can't say to the Kippers it's "their fault" Ed is there implementing policies they will loathe. Lose, however, and you give some Kippers at least pause for thought that this splitting the Right stuff isn't quite so smart as it may have seemed, and you can point out to everyone south of Berwick every time something favours the Scots (whether it does or not), and "only the Tories can fix it".
If Ed wins it seems he'd have to be right at the top of expectations to only need the Lib Dems and so is almost certainly going to be Sturgeon's hostage for as little or long as she sees fit (three years?) Anything above 280 odd seats (possibly less) and it seems he cannot "avoid" being in Government so to speak. At which point why would any left wing Scot vote SLAB again? Murphy's maxim of "vote SNP get the Tories" would've been disproved and even better you have a Labour Govt exactly where Scotland wants it and in a great position to extract goodies. They can't overplay that one sure and there are limits (Trident will get renewed in some form), but the mountain this would leave SLAB to climb in the foreseeable future looks huge. Conversely, if Dave's still there come tea time tomorrow - Murphy was right and it's a stick to herd voters back to SLAB in future (see Kipper playbook above).
Oh - and there's a big hole in the finances that non Dom's, mansions, bankers, and SNP accounting won't fill in the real world, so you'll have to make some real decisions that will cheese a lot of people off, that you've spent five years telling "someone else will pay".
Dead cert winners tomorrow, SNP, likely winners DUP (how much gold will it take to pave the streets of Ballymena exactly?), surprise winners the Lib Dem's (remember them?). Could well end up wielding almost as much influence on 10% and 30 seats as twice that now.
Rumours that they have some ballots not containing all the candidates!
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP
Disturbing reports of people being turned away from an Annan polling station by burly blokes if they say they don't support a certain party.
I'm probably doing more good for the country catching City fraudsters. Some of them anyway.
And I have far too many skeletons in my cupboard, not to mention a family to protect and other interesting things to do with my life.
* harsh - sorry!
In government, Miliband and Balls are going to have a hellish time squaring the deficit with public sector pay demands.
McCluskey will want payback.
Gordon Brown was, in my opinion, a small businesses worst nightmare. I dread to think what Ed could do...
I could easily be wrong, but that's my reasoning (backed up by my gut).
I don't see how people don't see through it. All he has done has taken Mark Thomas routine and made it more commercial and accessible for the current market and less funny.
Thomas can actually be extremely funny, his Bravo Figaro show was very touching. Thomas is always more open about the fact that he is very fortunate that he makes a good living from his brand of activist humour, and also doesn't take a tv crew to every single demo he decides to attend.
I must say I thought things would've moved towards the Tories at this point and I'd have bet my house on the Tories being 3%-4% ahead in the national vote share tonight.
Doesn't look likely now.
P45 for the Returning Officer there I fear.
I will mention one thing about the polls though: from around the start of this year, and particularly during the campaign proper, I don't think I've ever seen such a mix of contradictory results and vague trends from opinion pollsters.
They've prided themselves on learning from 1992 and becoming pretty accurate, but it seems to me the situation on the ground is so unpredictable that the pollsters are finding it hard to predict too.
Very perculiar election. The exit poll will be interesting.
http://www.darlington.gov.uk/your-council/news/statement-from-darlington-borough-council-regarding-missing-name-from-ballot-paper/
Although I've no doubt Miliband will try.
Also, postal votes are already in.
Pencil is pointing at UKIP.
WHAT COULD IT MEAN ??????
**Fixes ELBOW**
Just voted. Turnout described as "steady", and "unremarkable".
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334783.php
Also IIRC the previous system, Merlin, was out of action at the Eastleigh by-election: Some story involving a bankrupt contractor and inadequate disaster planning. (Hopefully someone can fill in the details and correct me if I'm misremembering.)
Be plenty of champagne cocking popping this evening at broadcasting house. Job done...telly tax definitely safe.
A lot of people tend to view the Labour Party as having its heart in the right place, even if they don't get everything right. However valid that viewpoint is, it does appear to be one a lot of centrist/soft left acquaintances hold.
And they wonder why Ladbrokes is going down the tubes...
Lab 34 (nc), Con 33 (-1), UKIP 13 (nc), LD 9 (-1), Grn 5 (nc)
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_Final_BPC.pdf
N.B. This is only one PS in one ward of Tooting, but we only have to overturn a 2500 majority and if enough 2010 LDs hold their noses and vote against the "Three-bed London Semi Tax for Scottish Nurses", then he's toast.
Fun this, huh?
FWIW, my prediction stands at C 306, Lab 248, LD 24.
But no. They're a party for the rich.
What exciting game-changing policies do we get? An inheritance tax cut benefitting the richest and a policy allowing the poorest in society (in social housing) the right to buy. Oh, and with the money they've got spare having bought their council flat, maybe they could buy some Lloyds shares. Laughable.
I think the coalition has been pretty good all round considering the 2010 prognosis. I put this down to the LibDems.
I'm classic petit-bourgeoisie. Middle aged. Business owner. Home owner. Parent. Core vote, I should be.
But on the basis of the 2015 manifesto and the 2015 campaign and an evident detachment from the real lives that 90% of electors live, the tories deserve to go down. I'm actually annoyed at them that they couldn't make one, tiny, visible extra charge on people as rich as them. Just one.
Once again in my constituency I simply have to spunk my vote on the the LibDems when me, and a couple of thousand others like me, could have voted tory and seen Ed Balls heading for the dole office rather than Downing Street. I'll sit tight for ERS and CT and interest rates and whatever to go up and properly fuck me up. Thanks tories.
I would make him no more than a 25% shot.
The nation waits with baited breath.......
Non-YGs now inc. Populus = Lab lead 0.4% (was Con lead 0.7)
Onlines now inc. Populus = Lab lead 0.5% (-0.1%)
Overall, still a 0.3% lab lead (+0.2)
Any turn-out figures floating around yet? For financial reasons I'm following Green tweets from Bristol, sounds like turn out v good there.
(Nervous, moi?)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEZijkpWEAA628c.jpg:large
Newham Labour seems to help there too
3 teams from Vauxhall CLP have been sent to Battarsea
http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_final_poll_FINAL.pdf
Lab lead 35 to Con 34!
Lab 35 (+3)
Con 34 (-1)
UKIP 11(-2)
LD 9 (nc)
Grn 4 (-1)
If you're a Tory in a LD:Lab marginal and you're going to vote LD to keep out Labour, nothing said in the campaign is going to shift this. You may warm or cool towards Farage or Clegg or Cameron, but your vote isn't moving.
If seats were allocated by PR then you might but in FTPT to vote Tory in such circumstances is not just to waste a vote but to act against your own views.
Tory 269
Lab 280
Lib Dem 26
UKIP 3
Sadiq, who's a very popular local MP, will comfortably increase his majority.
Some of the nonsense spouted out by right-wing nut-jobs on here beggars belief!
Battersea: I thought the Tories winning by 16% - Ashcroft , who may turn out as even a bigger joker than Stephen Fisher !
Bastards...
Post your own experiences from this morning and I promise I won't call you names.
Apols if we knew this.