The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Peston has a shameful article on it masquerading as a "neutral" one respecting the broadcaster's rules.
"Did labour spend too much?" he then says some say they do, on some measures they did, on some they didn't... blah blah, then makes an entirely laughable and false comparison between the good years of 2001-07 with the early 80's recession and says that the deficits in those years were similar (well duh...). there was no comparison of deficits in developed economies in the same years (you know, a fair comparison)
Uninformed voters (most of them) will have concluded that the accusation of overspending was just a Tory debating point. AAARGGHHH
Yep. I see multiple articles of how Labour didn't really increase spending despite it nominally doubling in a decade.
It was all the banks wot did it and as everyone knows they are Tory even though it was Labour deregulation that caused the the problems. But I suppose Labour were just being Tory at the time or some crap.
There's about to be a massive dose of reality coming for the social media generation of lefties, most of whom think that only 1% of the population need to pay any more in taxes for everyone to have more sweeties.
There'll be a lot of people surprised to find themselves in the 1%.
It's depressing to think that in all my adult life (and I'm 39), I have had the last 4 years of a weak Tory Government as a self-destructing Tory Party was desperately held together by Major (or not), 13 years of Blair-Brown sovietising the UK, and 5 years of a pretty weak Conservative-led coalition government which largely failed on its main task of eliminating the deficit - and now I'm being plunged back into at least 5 years of an even more socialist administration than the one Blair-Brown helmed, and if the Tories do self-destruct in the wake of today's defeat, Labour might be in for another 10-15 years.
Didn't they used to say the Tories were the natural party of government? I might never see a right of centre administration again!
What a black day today is!
Calm down. The arithmetic is almost as bad for Labour (perhaps even worse, in the long run). If, as looks likely, they have to go into "Coalition" with the SNP it will cripple Labour in England (they are already screwed in Scotland), and the government might not last 5 months, let alone 5 years.
The Left and the Right are fragmenting. The future is Coalitions. There will be rightwing coalitions and leftwing coalitions. We'd better get used to it.
Cameron could seal the deal on coalition 2.0 straight away by offering STV for Westminster. I think he'd rather take his Christian Democrat Pragmatists into an arrangement with the Orange Bookers and one or two of the more right wing Labour lot (Umuna?) in any case.
[O/T I've bought your latest on the twins]
Wouldn't a 2015 deal between Cameron and Clegg be Coalition 1.1?
I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
You might be right. I think sympathy is a powerful motivator. I think John Major got a sympathy vote in 1992 when he took his little soap box out and stood on it. My mother said "Oh bless!" and voted for him. First and only time she voted Tory.
It would be funny if it was the Mail and the Sun wot won it - for Ed!
I genuinely believe that a lot of voters are put off by the sheer nastiness that emanates from the Mail & Murdoch papers.
I think we are all getting a little bit excited here. We have all been worried about whether the opinion polls are right or wrong so any shifts look more like covering backsides than anything else.
If there does seem to be any shift in sentiment to Labour, it seems to be driven by London - might be a classic example of thinking that what happens in London happens everywhere else: it doesn't.
Let's just all relax and enjoy the result whatever it is
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
My wife's boss in the Council (a Union rep) told her and her colleagues this morning they'd better vote Labour all they'll all be out of work under the Tories.
Lol. Her boss is a cock too - gives it the big one to his staff but shits himself whenever the husband's are at social gatherings. Last time I met him he was telling me how fast his car is
Anyway, my wife doesn't vote. The minute she starts we'll know there's a crisis on. She wouldn't even know what a polling card is. I asked her if she'd lost her job over the last five years when the Tories were in power? She didn't even know the Tories were in power.... doh.
Just goes to show the level of fear-mongering which goes on in Councils though, towards naïve, dopey non-voters like my wife.
what a charmer you are - no wonder she fell under your spell
It's depressing to think that in all my adult life (and I'm 39), I have had the last 4 years of a weak Tory Government as a self-destructing Tory Party was desperately held together by Major (or not), 13 years of Blair-Brown sovietising the UK, and 5 years of a pretty weak Conservative-led coalition government which largely failed on its main task of eliminating the deficit - and now I'm being plunged back into at least 5 years of an even more socialist administration than the one Blair-Brown helmed, and if the Tories do self-destruct in the wake of today's defeat, Labour might be in for another 10-15 years.
Didn't they used to say the Tories were the natural party of government? I might never see a right of centre administration again!
What a black day today is!
Calm down. The arithmetic is almost as bad for Labour (perhaps even worse, in the long run). If, as looks likely, they have to go into "Coalition" with the SNP it will cripple Labour in England (they are already screwed in Scotland), and the government might not last 5 months, let alone 5 years.
The Left and the Right are fragmenting. The future is Coalitions. There will be rightwing coalitions and leftwing coalitions. We'd better get used to it.
Indeed, Ed will be labour's worst ever leader if he loses them Scotland.
Camerons' time may be up, but it's not looking too bad in the longer run for the blues.They are still the natural party of England.
I think we might see a late swing back to Labour in Scotland. By "swing" I mean a move from total, outright Scotterdammerung - complete wipeout - to mere Scotastrophe. They might cling on to 6 or 8 seats, heck even 10.
Still disastrous, of course. From 41 to single figures. Lol. And if Miliband then goes into "Coalition" with the Nats those seats are surely gone for good.
It was Scotland wot saved Labour last time...I tend to agree talk of a total Labour wipe out won't be how it actually ends up.
It's depressing to think that in all my adult life (and I'm 39), I have had the last 4 years of a weak Tory Government as a self-destructing Tory Party was desperately held together by Major (or not), 13 years of Blair-Brown sovietising the UK, and 5 years of a pretty weak Conservative-led coalition government which largely failed on its main task of eliminating the deficit - and now I'm being plunged back into at least 5 years of an even more socialist administration than the one Blair-Brown helmed, and if the Tories do self-destruct in the wake of today's defeat, Labour might be in for another 10-15 years.
Didn't they used to say the Tories were the natural party of government? I might never see a right of centre administration again!
What a black day today is!
Calm down. The arithmetic is almost as bad for Labour (perhaps even worse, in the long run). If, as looks likely, they have to go into "Coalition" with the SNP it will cripple Labour in England (they are already screwed in Scotland), and the government might not last 5 months, let alone 5 years.
The Left and the Right are fragmenting. The future is Coalitions. There will be rightwing coalitions and leftwing coalitions. We'd better get used to it.
Indeed, Ed will be labour's worst ever leader if he loses them Scotland.
Camerons' time may be up, but it's not looking too bad in the longer run for the blues.They are still the natural party of England.
I think we might see a late swing back to Labour in Scotland. By "swing" I mean a move from total, outright Scotterdammerung - complete wipeout - to mere Scotastrophe. They might cling on to 6 or 8 seats, heck even 10.
Still disastrous, of course. From 41 to single figures. Lol. And if Miliband then goes into "Coalition" with the Nats those seats are surely gone for good.
And if SNP/PC + Labour is over 323 and he refuses to work with the SNP those seats are gone for good as well.
Philip Cowley@philipjcowley·2 mins2 minutes ago Either 2015 joins 1992 and 1970 as polling disasters - or Ed Miliband is going to become Prime Minister.
I'm not sure I going to sleep tonight, thats for sure.
If the Conservatives emerge with 2, 3 or 4 points ahead as I expect, I would not call it a polling disaster. First, some Labour voters that said that they would turn out, ultimately may not show. That's often the case with their demographic. I doubt that we'll see the turnout that is reported. In any case, most constituencies aren't competitive.
Second, UKIP voters may switch to Conservative in larger numbers. Ashcroft already reported this in his survey. As the polls have reported a close contest, UKIP voters may decide to return to the Conservative fold to keep Labour out especially in the marginal constituencies. This is something that you could not have factored into the polls in advance.
Third, and perhaps most significantly, the voters have been reporting some dissonance – they favor Labour but prefer Cameron as Prime Minister. They trust the Conservatives more on all of the key issues of importance and, moreover, most people that expect the Conservatives to win the election. Something had to give. You can't have it both ways.
In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
Just me, antifrank, and NPXMP on our own predicting a Labour plurality.
rcs100's prediction of CON 311, Lab 248 is especially piquant.
Er, I predicted 300 seats for Labour this morning.
On the pb contest I was Con 288 Lab 270. I would reverse those now.
Adherents of my ARSE need to hold it and their nerve tight.
No gibbering or lip wobbling will be allowed.
has the last batch of polls forced you to rethink your ARSE or are you still holding it tight?
Suffice to say ....
Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister
Fair play for sticking to your guns. At what (clearly imaginary) point would your ARSE go into reverse (now there's a mental image I could do without)?
Exit poll? Fri am? Coalition formed by Labour?
As they lower me into the ground ....
And your epitaph?
Here lies Jack, Broken-hearted. ARSE looked good But only farted.
It's depressing to think that in all my adult life (and I'm 39), I have had the last 4 years of a weak Tory Government as a self-destructing Tory Party was desperately held together by Major (or not), 13 years of Blair-Brown sovietising the UK, and 5 years of a pretty weak Conservative-led coalition government which largely failed on its main task of eliminating the deficit - and now I'm being plunged back into at least 5 years of an even more socialist administration than the one Blair-Brown helmed, and if the Tories do self-destruct in the wake of today's defeat, Labour might be in for another 10-15 years.
Didn't they used to say the Tories were the natural party of government? I might never see a right of centre administration again!
What a black day today is!
Calm down. The arithmetic is almost as bad for Labour (perhaps even worse, in the long run). If, as looks likely, they have to go into "Coalition" with the SNP it will cripple Labour in England (they are already screwed in Scotland), and the government might not last 5 months, let alone 5 years.
The Left and the Right are fragmenting. The future is Coalitions. There will be rightwing coalitions and leftwing coalitions. We'd better get used to it.
Cameron could seal the deal on coalition 2.0 straight away by offering STV for Westminster. I think he'd rather take his Christian Democrat Pragmatists into an arrangement with the Orange Bookers and one or two of the more right wing Labour lot (Umuna?) in any case.
[O/T I've bought your latest on the twins]
Wouldn't a 2015 deal between Cameron and Clegg be Coalition 1.1?
No that was the Coalition Review in 2012 (or 2013) ;-)
Walked five miles to vote for the candidate I suspect has a greater than 95% chance of finishing last. Dissent registered, although her indoors strayed out and trumped me by spoiling her ballot. WWWWD? Minimum alcohol pricing? I doubt it.
The Tory leadership are 'sans' passion and cannot communicate. Labour are effing useless and ignorant but they know how to twang the heart strings. I've told blue leadership this for years but they don't listen.
And if Labour have more seats there will not be another election for 5 years because SNP will abstain or support.
FWIW I was at a party chatting with a very senior Guardian journo last night (presumably well informed).
We agreed that Cameron's heart wasn't in it (he thought Cameron was just laid-back and bored, I argued that Cameron didn't want the EU referendum hassle). We concluded this is one big reason he won't be PM next month.
However he was also adamant that Cameron would just shade it in seats.
In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
Con Lab LD UKIP SNP PC Resp Grn
=======================================
For the record, here is my latest prediction, made two days ago (my Official Prediction was very similar):
Just me, antifrank, and NPXMP on our own predicting a Labour plurality.
rcs100's prediction of CON 311, Lab 248 is especially piquant.
Er, I predicted 300 seats for Labour this morning.
On the pb contest I was Con 288 Lab 270. I would reverse those now.
Adherents of my ARSE need to hold it and their nerve tight.
No gibbering or lip wobbling will be allowed.
has the last batch of polls forced you to rethink your ARSE or are you still holding it tight?
Suffice to say ....
Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister
Fair play for sticking to your guns. At what (clearly imaginary) point would your ARSE go into reverse (now there's a mental image I could do without)?
Exit poll? Fri am? Coalition formed by Labour?
As they lower me into the ground ....
And your epitaph?
Here lies Jack, Broken-hearted. ARSE looked good But only farted.
Bravo.
The was an old fellow called Jack Who refused to ever row back Now his ARSE is in pieces Bits of skin, blood and faeces Our Nostrodamus has now got the sack
It's depressing to think that in all my adult life (and I'm 39), I have had the last 4 years of a weak Tory Government as a self-destructing Tory Party was desperately held together by Major (or not), 13 years of Blair-Brown sovietising the UK, and 5 years of a pretty weak Conservative-led coalition government which largely failed on its main task of eliminating the deficit - and now I'm being plunged back into at least 5 years of an even more socialist administration than the one Blair-Brown helmed, and if the Tories do self-destruct in the wake of today's defeat, Labour might be in for another 10-15 years.
Didn't they used to say the Tories were the natural party of government? I might never see a right of centre administration again!
What a black day today is!
Calm down. The arithmetic is almost as bad for Labour (perhaps even worse, in the long run). If, as looks likely, they have to go into "Coalition" with the SNP it will cripple Labour in England (they are already screwed in Scotland), and the government might not last 5 months, let alone 5 years.
The Left and the Right are fragmenting. The future is Coalitions. There will be rightwing coalitions and leftwing coalitions. We'd better get used to it.
Cameron could seal the deal on coalition 2.0 straight away by offering STV for Westminster. I think he'd rather take his Christian Democrat Pragmatists into an arrangement with the Orange Bookers and one or two of the more right wing Labour lot (Umuna?) in any case.
[O/T I've bought your latest on the twins]
Wouldn't a 2015 deal between Cameron and Clegg be Coalition 1.1?
No that was the Coalition Review in 2012 (or 2013) ;-)
It's depressing to think that in all my adult life (and I'm 39), I have had the last 4 years of a weak Tory Government as a self-destructing Tory Party was desperately held together by Major (or not), 13 years of Blair-Brown sovietising the UK, and 5 years of a pretty weak Conservative-led coalition government which largely failed on its main task of eliminating the deficit - and now I'm being plunged back into at least 5 years of an even more socialist administration than the one Blair-Brown helmed, and if the Tories do self-destruct in the wake of today's defeat, Labour might be in for another 10-15 years.
Didn't they used to say the Tories were the natural party of government? I might never see a right of centre administration again!
What a black day today is!
Calm down. The arithmetic is almost as bad for Labour (perhaps even worse, in the long run). If, as looks likely, they have to go into "Coalition" with the SNP it will cripple Labour in England (they are already screwed in Scotland), and the government might not last 5 months, let alone 5 years.
The Left and the Right are fragmenting. The future is Coalitions. There will be rightwing coalitions and leftwing coalitions. We'd better get used to it.
Indeed, Ed will be labour's worst ever leader if he loses them Scotland.
Camerons' time may be up, but it's not looking too bad in the longer run for the blues.They are still the natural party of England.
I think we might see a late swing back to Labour in Scotland. By "swing" I mean a move from total, outright Scotterdammerung - complete wipeout - to mere Scotastrophe. They might cling on to 6 or 8 seats, heck even 10.
Still disastrous, of course. From 41 to single figures. Lol. And if Miliband then goes into "Coalition" with the Nats those seats are surely gone for good.
Those seats will be gone, and with them 100 more in England for the broken promise of no deals.
It's depressing to think that in all my adult life (and I'm 39), I have had the last 4 years of a weak Tory Government as a self-destructing Tory Party was desperately held together by Major (or not), 13 years of Blair-Brown sovietising the UK, and 5 years of a pretty weak Conservative-led coalition government which largely failed on its main task of eliminating the deficit - and now I'm being plunged back into at least 5 years of an even more socialist administration than the one Blair-Brown helmed, and if the Tories do self-destruct in the wake of today's defeat, Labour might be in for another 10-15 years.
Didn't they used to say the Tories were the natural party of government? I might never see a right of centre administration again!
What a black day today is!
Calm down. The arithmetic is almost as bad for Labour (perhaps even worse, in the long run). If, as looks likely, they have to go into "Coalition" with the SNP it will cripple Labour in England (they are already screwed in Scotland), and the government might not last 5 months, let alone 5 years.
The Left and the Right are fragmenting. The future is Coalitions. There will be rightwing coalitions and leftwing coalitions. We'd better get used to it.
Indeed, Ed will be labour's worst ever leader if he loses them Scotland.
Camerons' time may be up, but it's not looking too bad in the longer run for the blues.They are still the natural party of England.
I think we might see a late swing back to Labour in Scotland. By "swing" I mean a move from total, outright Scotterdammerung - complete wipeout - to mere Scotastrophe. They might cling on to 6 or 8 seats, heck even 10.
Still disastrous, of course. From 41 to single figures. Lol. And if Miliband then goes into "Coalition" with the Nats those seats are surely gone for good.
It was Scotland wot saved Labour last time...I tend to agree talk of a total Labour wipe out won't be how it actually ends up.
Indeed, my one prediction the other day was that SNP would not do as well as everyone thinks. Their nasty fringe has been rather too apparent recently - and I think that will put off quite a few voters. I might add I was disappointed to see Carynx (who was someone I always used to read) come out with the ludicrous instant rebuttal line that the ambush of Murphy was a put up job by SLAB.
My wife's boss in the Council (a Union rep) told her and her colleagues this morning they'd better vote Labour all they'll all be out of work under the Tories.
Lol. Her boss is a cock too - gives it the big one to his staff but shits himself whenever the husband's are at social gatherings. Last time I met him he was telling me how fast his car is
Anyway, my wife doesn't vote. The minute she starts we'll know there's a crisis on. She wouldn't even know what a polling card is. I asked her if she'd lost her job over the last five years when the Tories were in power? She didn't even know the Tories were in power.... doh.
Just goes to show the level of fear-mongering which goes on in Councils though, towards naïve, dopey non-voters like my wife.
what a charmer you are - no wonder she fell under your spell
He generally thinks the Lib Dems are a bunch of wet lettuces, and has voted Tory since 1987 but Clegg's done fine.
So came as a real shock.
The LD late surge is on. The only significant movement in the polls during the campaign.
What odds on LD > UKIP votes?
Ah!!! The Dead Russian - the Liberal's friend, he is usually seen at about this time
Sergei is a meerkat these days .... are you buying a ticket for Twickenham (sans Vince) at the end of the month, Icarus? You despatch Saints and we put Saracens to the sword - then a repeat of our meeting in September ;-)</blockquote
Have not had a good 80 minutes all season - more by luck the occasional excellent half has got us into Europe next year but don't expect to see the play-offs this year.
Going to Coventry Insects on Saturday- a full house I believe
How many seats do you expect? Loved the old bloke on the Lib Dem bus on Channel 4's well observed political show the other night (Think Andy Hamilton had written it) - "This is our golden age - in the 70s we only had 6 MPs" That's been my line!
What's extraordinary, at least to me, is that despite the very disappointing final polls for the Blue team, Sporting's Seats spread prices have remained rock solid all day with the Tories on 290 seats and Labour 24 seats behind on 266.
I cannot remember ANY election (or any vote - referendum, etc) where the betting odds and the polls have been so opposed.
All the polls now imply a Miliband plurality, all the polls show an anti-Tory majority. The betting markets entirely disagree.
Can any pb-er recall a disparity of this magnitude?
Someone posted a link to a lengthy article this morning regarding "shy tories" in that there was a page about 1992 being the last time there was such a disconnect between the Best PM question and the voting intention question.
In the polling booth, the latter trumped the former
As I said the other day, CCHQ is a shambles (their computer systems have been shockers).
Last election won was 1992, 23 years ago, so it's not surprising the institutional memory of how to win an election has disappeared. The Tories were once the 'natural' party of government...
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
Come off it
Labour left the deficit so high that to reduce it to zero in 5 years in the face of no growth in the Eurozone and was always going to be almost impossible. Greece has done it by having austerity so severe that there have been riots, and pay cuts the like of which have never been seen before. Do you advocate Greek-style austerity here?
If even people like you who are economically aware aren't giving the tories credit for what they have achieved no wonder they are in trouble.
Wowcher offering politics themed 'bargains', including Bennett with a garden hose, Dave with a 'Slushy Maker, 6 Colours' and an anger management course illustrated by Nigel.
FWIW I was at a party chatting with a very senior Guardian journo last night (presumably well informed).
We agreed that Cameron's heart wasn't in it (he thought Cameron was just laid-back and bored, I argued that Cameron didn't want the EU referendum hassle). We concluded this is one big reason he won't be PM next month.
However he was also adamant that Cameron would just shade it in seats.
Bozza wins Autumn election?
Now that would be a result to hope for. Hell, I'd even make an overseas postal vote just to nudge the overall share by 0.00001%. GoBoJo!
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
That has the 2015 UK budget running a 4% deficit, which is worse than... the US, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal or Spain. But better than Japan. Which is a relief.
In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
Con Lab LD UKIP SNP PC Resp Grn
=======================================
For the record, here is my latest prediction, made two days ago (my Official Prediction was very similar):
Just me, antifrank, and NPXMP on our own predicting a Labour plurality.
rcs100's prediction of CON 311, Lab 248 is especially piquant.
Er, I predicted 300 seats for Labour this morning.
On the pb contest I was Con 288 Lab 270. I would reverse those now.
Adherents of my ARSE need to hold it and their nerve tight.
No gibbering or lip wobbling will be allowed.
has the last batch of polls forced you to rethink your ARSE or are you still holding it tight?
Suffice to say ....
Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister
Fair play for sticking to your guns. At what (clearly imaginary) point would your ARSE go into reverse (now there's a mental image I could do without)?
Exit poll? Fri am? Coalition formed by Labour?
As they lower me into the ground ....
And your epitaph?
Here lies Jack, Broken-hearted. ARSE looked good But only farted.
Bravo.
The was an old fellow called Jack Who refused to ever row back Now his ARSE is in pieces Bits of skin, blood and faeces Our Nostrodamus has now got the sack
There was a young fellow called Jack Who advised on what outcome to back His ARSE vindicated Should now be gold plated from both of the cheeks to the crack
I doubt that Scotland will be anything but a catastrophe for SLAB and whilst Ed Miliband may find his way into no 10 can you imagine the fury if he is helped in any way by SNP, even if he denies having colluded with them as no one will believe him. While labour supporters on here seem very optimistic I think they need to be careful for what they wish for - dangerous times for labour no matter what the outcome
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
On the other hand, Greece has a quarter of its workforce unemployed, rising to about half its youth, and has extreme political instability resulting in a far-left party winning an election and neo-Nazis finishing third.
You're right that the deficit remains a serious problem (as does the trade deficit) but don't underestimate the costs of having tackled it much more quickly. Personally, I'd rather more progress had been made but I wouldn't want to be running a surplus at the moment having inherited a 10% deficit in 2010 and gone through the Euroslowdown in 2011-13.
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
Come off it
Labour left the deficit so high that to reduce it to zero in 5 years in the face of no growth in the Eurozone and was always going to be almost impossible. Greece has done it by having austerity so severe that there have been riots, and pay cuts the like of which have never been seen before. Do you advocate Greek-style austerity here?
If even people like you who are economically aware aren't giving the tories credit for what they have achieved no wonder they are in trouble.
We talk about austerity. But we have no idea what real austerity looks like.
In Spain, in Portugal and in Ireland, there have been dramatic, across the board, cuts to civil servant salaries.
We've mildly cut the growth of public sector spending. That is not austerity.
FWIW I was at a party chatting with a very senior Guardian journo last night (presumably well informed).
We agreed that Cameron's heart wasn't in it (he thought Cameron was just laid-back and bored, I argued that Cameron didn't want the EU referendum hassle). We concluded this is one big reason he won't be PM next month.
However he was also adamant that Cameron would just shade it in seats.
Bozza wins Autumn election?
Weirdly enough yes, that's what he predicted: a weak Miliband Coalition government would fall (though he thought it likely to happen in two or three years) and a Boris-led Tory party might easily win through.
I disagreed. The Tories have been killed on the poshness issue. Boris is posh. If they DO elect Boris then Bozza needs to make sure he is absolutely surrounded by proles in his shadow Cabinet.
On the upside Boris would be entertaining for the nation, as we endure the grim Scottish Socialist Hell of Nicola McMiliband's government.
Not sure where the Tories would find a cabinet of proles these days ... even the Labour cabinet is posher than Jack W's valet.
Slightly surprised to see this - understand re Bury North but Bury South (from a Labour tweeter)?
I know my constituency is safe but those voting in Bury North and South - its so, so tight. Vote for @Frith4BuryNorth and @IvanLewis_MP
Bury South is really weird -- I live in Bury N and do a little work for the Tories. I'm hearing that Ivan Lewis is delivering far more leaflets that you'd expect in a safe seat, often focussed on how voting UKIP will 'let the Tories in.' My sense is that UKIP have a decent candidate in Bury S -- he's not going to win, but he might give the Tory candidate something of a shot if he does well in Lab heartlands like Radcliffe.
That being said I'd be staggered if Ivan Lewis gets less than a 4000 majority. I'd also be surprised if the majority in Bury N isn't less than 1000, whichever way it goes.
JackW made a prediction And stuck to it with much conviction When the results did come in It got chucked in the bin And his ARSE lost all semblance of friction
George Galloway still uses them. I remember a car coming round my street during the day of the Bradford West by-election (I lived in Shipley at the time - just - and he'd lost his bearings as to where the boundary was).
FWIW I was at a party chatting with a very senior Guardian journo last night (presumably well informed).
We agreed that Cameron's heart wasn't in it (he thought Cameron was just laid-back and bored, I argued that Cameron didn't want the EU referendum hassle). We concluded this is one big reason he won't be PM next month.
However he was also adamant that Cameron would just shade it in seats.
Bozza wins Autumn election?
Weirdly enough yes, that's what he predicted: a weak Miliband Coalition government would fall (though he thought it likely to happen in two or three years) and a Boris-led Tory party might easily win through.
I disagreed. The Tories have been killed on the poshness issue. Boris is posh. If they DO elect Boris then Bozza needs to make sure he is absolutely surrounded by proles in his shadow Cabinet.
On the upside Boris would be entertaining for the nation, as we endure the grim Scottish Socialist Hell of Nicola McMiliband's government.
As amusing as it might be, I can't see Boris as leader.
His charismatic personality works well for a city mayor, but he's another rich posh boy to those outside London. The rather colourful back story won't help him on the national stage either. Also can't see him getting votes of the Tory MPs in the first ballot, when a few of their own have been positioning for years for the job.
I'd go with a safe pair of hands, a Hammond or May for the autumn election.
It's depressing to think that in all my adult life (and I'm 39), I have had the last 4 years of a weak Tory Government as a self-destructing Tory Party was desperately held together by Major (or not), 13 years of Blair-Brown sovietising the UK, and 5 years of a pretty weak Conservative-led coalition government which largely failed on its main task of eliminating the deficit - and now I'm being plunged back into at least 5 years of an even more socialist administration than the one Blair-Brown helmed, and if the Tories do self-destruct in the wake of today's defeat, Labour might be in for another 10-15 years.
Didn't they used to say the Tories were the natural party of government? I might never see a right of centre administration again!
What a black day today is!
Calm down. The arithmetic is almost as bad for Labour (perhaps even worse, in the long run). If, as looks likely, they have to go into "Coalition" with the SNP it will cripple Labour in England (they are already screwed in Scotland), and the government might not last 5 months, let alone 5 years.
The Left and the Right are fragmenting. The future is Coalitions. There will be rightwing coalitions and leftwing coalitions. We'd better get used to it.
Indeed, Ed will be labour's worst ever leader if he loses them Scotland.
Camerons' time may be up, but it's not looking too bad in the longer run for the blues.They are still the natural party of England.
I think we might see a late swing back to Labour in Scotland. By "swing" I mean a move from total, outright Scotterdammerung - complete wipeout - to mere Scotastrophe. They might cling on to 6 or 8 seats, heck even 10.
Still disastrous, of course. From 41 to single figures. Lol. And if Miliband then goes into "Coalition" with the Nats those seats are surely gone for good.
It was Scotland wot saved Labour last time...I tend to agree talk of a total Labour wipe out won't be how it actually ends up.
Indeed, my one prediction the other day was that SNP would not do as well as everyone thinks. Their nasty fringe has been rather too apparent recently - and I think that will put off quite a few voters. I might add I was disappointed to see Carynx (who was someone I always used to read) come out with the ludicrous instant rebuttal line that the ambush of Murphy was a put up job by SLAB.
Not ludicrous, given that it was unionist-newspaper journos pointing out that the info for the supposed ambush was coming from Mr Murphy's branch members.
[Edit: that was what really convinced me something odd was happening. Though there is more than one interpretation.]
FWIW I was at a party chatting with a very senior Guardian journo last night (presumably well informed).
We agreed that Cameron's heart wasn't in it (he thought Cameron was just laid-back and bored, I argued that Cameron didn't want the EU referendum hassle). We concluded this is one big reason he won't be PM next month.
However he was also adamant that Cameron would just shade it in seats.
Bozza wins Autumn election?
Weirdly enough yes, that's what he predicted: a weak Miliband Coalition government would fall (though he thought it likely to happen in two or three years) and a Boris-led Tory party might easily win through.
I disagreed. The Tories have been killed on the poshness issue. Boris is posh. If they DO elect Boris then Bozza needs to make sure he is absolutely surrounded by proles in his shadow Cabinet.
On the upside Boris would be entertaining for the nation, as we endure the grim Scottish Socialist Hell of Nicola McMiliband's government.
If thats the case, he needs to look to the next generations, the Pritis, the Sajid Javid's, and others. Someone like Hammond as CoE.
I think Osborne is still ok, but move him to Home Office.
FWIW I was at a party chatting with a very senior Guardian journo last night (presumably well informed).
We agreed that Cameron's heart wasn't in it (he thought Cameron was just laid-back and bored, I argued that Cameron didn't want the EU referendum hassle). We concluded this is one big reason he won't be PM next month.
However he was also adamant that Cameron would just shade it in seats.
Bozza wins Autumn election?
Weirdly enough yes, that's what he predicted: a weak Miliband Coalition government would fall (though he thought it likely to happen in two or three years) and a Boris-led Tory party might easily win through.
I disagreed. The Tories have been killed on the poshness issue. Boris is posh. If they DO elect Boris then Bozza needs to make sure he is absolutely surrounded by proles in his shadow Cabinet.
On the upside Boris would be entertaining for the nation, as we endure the grim Scottish Socialist Hell of Nicola McMiliband's government.
It's not the background, it's the policies and ability to relate to people. Look how hard the Labour people are spinning against him, they know he is worth a point or two.
As I said the other day, CCHQ is a shambles (their computer systems have been shockers).
Last election won was 1992, 23 years ago, so it's not surprising the institutional memory of how to win an election has disappeared. The Tories were once the 'natural' party of government...
Yep,and if labour win and serve the full five years,18 of the 23 years will have been a labour government,can't keep blaming the Tories for the wrongs of the past.
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
Come off it
Labour left the deficit so high that to reduce it to zero in 5 years in the face of no growth in the Eurozone and was always going to be almost impossible. Greece has done it by having austerity so severe that there have been riots, and pay cuts the like of which have never been seen before. Do you advocate Greek-style austerity here?
If even people like you who are economically aware aren't giving the tories credit for what they have achieved no wonder they are in trouble.
We talk about austerity. But we have no idea what real austerity looks like.
In Spain, in Portugal and in Ireland, there have been dramatic, across the board, cuts to civil servant salaries.
We've mildly cut the growth of public sector spending. That is not austerity.
As Portillo said on This Week last week, we as a country need to get real. We haven't had Austerity for the past five years (and more), we've had Profligacy.
In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
Con Lab LD UKIP SNP PC Resp Grn
=======================================
Poll Observatory 271 273 24 2 55 3 0 1
Just me, antifrank, and NPXMP on our own predicting a Labour plurality.
rcs100's prediction of CON 311, Lab 248 is especially piquant.
Er, I predicted 300 seats for Labour this morning.
On the pb contest I was Con 288 Lab 270. I would reverse those now.
Adherents of my ARSE need to hold it and their nerve tight.
No gibbering or lip wobbling will be allowed.
has the last batch of polls forced you to rethink your ARSE or are you still holding it tight?
Suffice to say ....
Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister
Fair play for sticking to your guns. At what (clearly imaginary) point would your ARSE go into reverse (now there's a mental image I could do without)?
Exit poll? Fri am? Coalition formed by Labour?
As they lower me into the ground ....
And your epitaph?
Here lies Jack, Broken-hearted. ARSE looked good But only farted.
Titters from the grave .....
But .... The Ghost Of JackW Will Return To Haunt ARSE Deniers ....
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
Come off it
Labour left the deficit so high that to reduce it to zero in 5 years in the face of no growth in the Eurozone and was always going to be almost impossible. Greece has done it by having austerity so severe that there have been riots, and pay cuts the like of which have never been seen before. Do you advocate Greek-style austerity here?
If even people like you who are economically aware aren't giving the tories credit for what they have achieved no wonder they are in trouble.
We talk about austerity. But we have no idea what real austerity looks like.
In Spain, in Portugal and in Ireland, there have been dramatic, across the board, cuts to civil servant salaries.
We've mildly cut the growth of public sector spending. That is not austerity.
Quite. It didn't suit anyone to bring up the fact that public spending has risen in the past five years. Despite the rhetoric there have been no cuts, the largest growth by department wasn't health or education but the department of debt interest!
There is one on my estate now blaring out VOTE WAYNE DAVID.
Haven't seen a megaphone car in years and years. Last one I saw (parked) was for a Anne McLaughlin council election years ago when I knew her through friends.
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
Come off it
Labour left the deficit so high that to reduce it to zero in 5 years in the face of no growth in the Eurozone and was always going to be almost impossible. Greece has done it by having austerity so severe that there have been riots, and pay cuts the like of which have never been seen before. Do you advocate Greek-style austerity here?
If even people like you who are economically aware aren't giving the tories credit for what they have achieved no wonder they are in trouble.
We talk about austerity. But we have no idea what real austerity looks like.
In Spain, in Portugal and in Ireland, there have been dramatic, across the board, cuts to civil servant salaries.
We've mildly cut the growth of public sector spending. That is not austerity.
As Portillo said on This Week last week, we as a country need to get real. We haven't had Austerity for the past five years (and more), we've had Profligacy.
That Portillo quote sums up the Tories' problem. These exceedingly rich people crying crocodile tears about the deficit, yet not concerned enough to volunteer some of their own extensive wealth to help pay it off; instead they wag their finger at the plebs and tell them they're just going to have to suck it up with cuts and bloody well make do with what they're given.
In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
Con Lab LD UKIP SNP PC Resp Grn
=======================================
Poll Observatory 271 273 24 2 55 3 0 1
Just me, antifrank, and NPXMP on our own predicting a Labour plurality.
rcs100's prediction of CON 311, Lab 248 is especially piquant.
Er, I predicted 300 seats for Labour this morning.
On the pb contest I was Con 288 Lab 270. I would reverse those now.
Adherents of my ARSE need to hold it and their nerve tight.
No gibbering or lip wobbling will be allowed.
has the last batch of polls forced you to rethink your ARSE or are you still holding it tight?
Suffice to say ....
Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister
Fair play for sticking to your guns. At what (clearly imaginary) point would your ARSE go into reverse (now there's a mental image I could do without)?
Exit poll? Fri am? Coalition formed by Labour?
As they lower me into the ground ....
And your epitaph?
Here lies Jack, Broken-hearted. ARSE looked good But only farted.
Titters from the grave .....
But .... The Ghost Of JackW Will Return To Haunt ARSE Deniers ....
Jack - perhaps you should compile a list of wobbly righties who went weak at the knees during the final hours only to eat humble pie later.
You could name them the Conservative Unhinged Nervous Tinkerbells.
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
Come off it
Labour left the deficit so high that to reduce it to zero in 5 years in the face of no growth in the Eurozone and was always going to be almost impossible. Greece has done it by having austerity so severe that there have been riots, and pay cuts the like of which have never been seen before. Do you advocate Greek-style austerity here?
If even people like you who are economically aware aren't giving the tories credit for what they have achieved no wonder they are in trouble.
We've mildly cut the growth of public sector spending. That is not austerity.
I agree, but look how unpopular what we HAVE done was.
We have not seen any negative consequences of profligacy, and until we do the public won't see any need for balancing the books.
This web site is getting a tad dangerous! Beware what you click for. I appreciate the importance of advertising, but do miss the green that made me peckish for pea soup when it first appeared years ago.
As I said the other day, CCHQ is a shambles (their computer systems have been shockers).
Last election won was 1992, 23 years ago, so it's not surprising the institutional memory of how to win an election has disappeared. The Tories were once the 'natural' party of government...
That looks more like a printer queue problem. Some Muppet's set it to print everything from the same machine.
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
Come off it
Labour left the deficit so high that to reduce it to zero in 5 years in the face of no growth in the Eurozone and was always going to be almost impossible. Greece has done it by having austerity so severe that there have been riots, and pay cuts the like of which have never been seen before. Do you advocate Greek-style austerity here?
If even people like you who are economically aware aren't giving the tories credit for what they have achieved no wonder they are in trouble.
We talk about austerity. But we have no idea what real austerity looks like.
In Spain, in Portugal and in Ireland, there have been dramatic, across the board, cuts to civil servant salaries.
We've mildly cut the growth of public sector spending. That is not austerity.
As Portillo said on This Week last week, we as a country need to get real. We haven't had Austerity for the past five years (and more), we've had Profligacy.
That Portillo quote sums up the Tories' problem. These exceedingly rich people crying crocodile tears about the deficit, yet not concerned enough to volunteer some of their own extensive wealth to help pay it off; instead they wag their finger at the plebs and tell them they're just going to have to suck it up with cuts and bloody well make do with what they're given.
There has never been a Tory leader Portillo hasn't criticised or undermined.
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
Come off it
Labour left the deficit so high that to reduce it to zero in 5 years in the face of no growth in the Eurozone and was always going to be almost impossible. Greece has done it by having austerity so severe that there have been riots, and pay cuts the like of which have never been seen before. Do you advocate Greek-style austerity here?
If even people like you who are economically aware aren't giving the tories credit for what they have achieved no wonder they are in trouble.
We've mildly cut the growth of public sector spending. That is not austerity.
I agree, but look how unpopular what we HAVE done was.
We have not seen any negative consequences of profligacy, and until we do the public won't see any need for balancing the books.
Nothing in the world is free.
The government competes with private companies and individuals to attract savers' pounds, dollars and Euros. We borrow for a mortgage. A company borrows to build a factory. And the government borrows because it's politically easier than reducing spending.
When you go to get a mortgage, or a personal loan, the price of that loan (the interest rate) will be higher because the government is borrowing close more than 4% of GDP. Right now, we don't see it because of the combination of our own (historic) QE and Eurozone QE - but as those roll over, we will pay through our mortgages for the profligacy of government.
In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
Con Lab LD UKIP SNP PC Resp Grn
=======================================
Poll Observatory 271 273 24 2 55 3 0 1
Just me, antifrank, and NPXMP on our own predicting a Labour plurality.
rcs100's prediction of CON 311, Lab 248 is especially piquant.
Er, I predicted 300 seats for Labour this morning.
On the pb contest I was Con 288 Lab 270. I would reverse those now.
Adherents of my ARSE need to hold it and their nerve tight.
No gibbering or lip wobbling will be allowed.
has the last batch of polls forced you to rethink your ARSE or are you still holding it tight?
Suffice to say ....
Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister
Fair play for sticking to your guns. At what (clearly imaginary) point would your ARSE go into reverse (now there's a mental image I could do without)?
Exit poll? Fri am? Coalition formed by Labour?
As they lower me into the ground ....
And your epitaph?
Here lies Jack, Broken-hearted. ARSE looked good But only farted.
Titters from the grave .....
But .... The Ghost Of JackW Will Return To Haunt ARSE Deniers ....
Jack - perhaps you should compile a list of wobbly righties who went weak at the knees during the final hours only to eat humble pie later.
You could name them the Conservative Unhinged Nervous Tinkerbells.
I fear by 10pm I'll need a full resupply of quills.
The UK seems to want to test tax and spend to destruction. Despite all the evidence it doesn't work it appears like they want to give it one last go. See the "Labour didn't really increase spending or even if they did it didn't affect the deficit" meme going around on all social media that everyone is unquestionably lapping up.
Over 5 years the coalition really hasn't done that badly considering the mess that they inherited. If anyone thinks a Labour/SNP coalition will be as disciplined, grown up and reasonable then they'll be in for a very nasty surprise.
I think they have done badly. By not trying to do well.
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
Come off it
Labour left the deficit so high that to reduce it to zero in 5 years in the face of no growth in the Eurozone and was always going to be almost impossible. Greece has done it by having austerity so severe that there have been riots, and pay cuts the like of which have never been seen before. Do you advocate Greek-style austerity here?
If even people like you who are economically aware aren't giving the tories credit for what they have achieved no wonder they are in trouble.
As Portillo said on This Week last week, we as a country need to get real. We haven't had Austerity for the past five years (and more), we've had Profligacy.
That Portillo quote sums up the Tories' problem. These exceedingly rich people crying crocodile tears about the deficit, yet not concerned enough to volunteer some of their own extensive wealth to help pay it off; instead they wag their finger at the plebs and tell them they're just going to have to suck it up with cuts and bloody well make do with what they're given.
There has never been a Tory leader Portillo hasn't criticised or undermined.
How very true and probably just ahead of David Davis in that stake.
In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
Con Lab LD UKIP SNP PC Resp Grn
=======================================
Poll Observatory 271 273 24 2 55 3 0 1
Just me, antifrank, and NPXMP on our own predicting a Labour plurality.
rcs100's prediction of CON 311, Lab 248 is especially piquant.
Er, I predicted 300 seats for Labour this morning.
On the pb contest I was Con 288 Lab 270. I would reverse those now.
Adherents of my ARSE need to hold it and their nerve tight.
No gibbering or lip wobbling will be allowed.
has the last batch of polls forced you to rethink your ARSE or are you still holding it tight?
Suffice to say ....
Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister
Fair play for sticking to your guns. At what (clearly imaginary) point would your ARSE go into reverse (now there's a mental image I could do without)?
Exit poll? Fri am? Coalition formed by Labour?
As they lower me into the ground ....
And your epitaph?
Here lies Jack, Broken-hearted. ARSE looked good But only farted.
Titters from the grave .....
But .... The Ghost Of JackW Will Return To Haunt ARSE Deniers ....
Jack - perhaps you should compile a list of wobbly righties who went weak at the knees during the final hours only to eat humble pie later.
You could name them the Conservative Unhinged Nervous Tinkerbells.
BF is DC 1.95 EM 2.08 Con most seats 1.25 Lab most seats 4.8
Anything to move these figures before the exit poll?
The Lab most seats 1.01 train seems to have broken down at the 4.8 station..
Quite quite bizarre. If the Tories are more than 20 seats ahead, Cameron will, I reckon, be PM.
Yet, the polls, the polls.
*bangs head lightly with Labour Immigration mug*
There are scenarios where the polls and the markets are right - an SNP style wave of mega majorities across safe Labour seats - which there is evidence of in Lord A's mega poll by region.
George Galloway still uses them. I remember a car coming round my street during the day of the Bradford West by-election (I lived in Shipley at the time - just - and he'd lost his bearings as to where the boundary was).
There was one doing the rounds in Cheadle yesterday. Urging people to vote for anyone but the Tories (so presumably not LD funded as they really don't want people voting Labour).
"I’d rather sauté my own testicles than give my X to the Miliband-run Labour Party. For me, being left-wing has always meant three things:
1) Being in favour of big economic growth, so that everyone can have more stuff and live plush, plump, comfortable lives.
2) Believing ordinary people are capable of running their own lives, without needing experts to hold their hands and whisper patronising advice in their lugholes.
3) Wanting more freedom — especially freedom of speech and press freedom— so that new ideas might be aired and talked about.
Certainly when I first hurled myself head-first into radical politics, when I was 19 and red with fury at the world, that was the stuff that stirred me."
Me too, comrade. And that's why I was a Conservative back then and ever since.
Fancy that! Ladies and Gentlemen, behold; the disappearing UKIP act, now watch the bunny closely........................
If UKIP lose by by less than 90 votes, there will be hell to pay.
I suspect there's a simple way of solving it. If margin of error is greater than the margin of victory, then its a re-run of the vote. If the margin of victory is greater than 89 then it doesn't affect the result.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone in 2010 had an error over three votes last time but since Sinn Fein won by four votes the election was upheld.
"We're all in this together" was a brilliant phrase until it turned out it was not true. The Tories are not running away with this election because voters believe that their first instincts are to look after the people at the top of the tree. The wealthy - corporations and individuals - have never had it so good; everyone else, not so much. That is not a sustainable situation.
Isn't it bizarre that the lead story on the Beeb website (and elsewhere) is 'UK party leaders cast their votes'? Not exactly news, is it?
I think it's crazy they still can't report on the general election. People have access to so many different mediums nowadays this rule seems very archaic
Slightly surprised to see this - understand re Bury North but Bury South (from a Labour tweeter)?
I know my constituency is safe but those voting in Bury North and South - its so, so tight. Vote for @Frith4BuryNorth and @IvanLewis_MP
Bury South is really weird -- I live in Bury N and do a little work for the Tories. I'm hearing that Ivan Lewis is delivering far more leaflets that you'd expect in a safe seat, often focussed on how voting UKIP will 'let the Tories in.' My sense is that UKIP have a decent candidate in Bury S -- he's not going to win, but he might give the Tory candidate something of a shot if he does well in Lab heartlands like Radcliffe.
That being said I'd be staggered if Ivan Lewis gets less than a 4000 majority. I'd also be surprised if the majority in Bury N isn't less than 1000, whichever way it goes.
I'd go along with SeanT's subsequent explanation below, but as a resident of Bury South, I've been pointing out over recent weeks on here the surprising amount of Lewis leaflets. I do think the constituency is very much gentrifying (I've moved there since 2010... :-) ), certainly more so than Bury N which has always been fairly affluent in pockets, and it is of course one of the most heavily Jewish constituencies in the land and there were recent polls (UK) suggesting the Jewish vote was leaning heavily Tory IIRC.
So, maybe, just maybe it is indeed close - helped by a surprising UKIP showing (it's next door to Heywood & Middleton too)....
Comments
If there does seem to be any shift in sentiment to Labour, it seems to be driven by London - might be a classic example of thinking that what happens in London happens everywhere else: it doesn't.
Let's just all relax and enjoy the result whatever it is
#megaTick
Maybe she meant Arran !!
"According to IMF data last year the Greek deficit (-2.4%) was lower than the UK deficit (-5.7%), it will be lower this year at -0.78% versus -4.78% and they are due to be in surplus next year – before the UK.
Osborne has failed to meet his own deficit targets because he put off the hard decisions and switched to neo-Keynesianism whilst spinning austerity rhetoric. "
http://order-order.com/2015/05/06/george-osborne-skewered-by-kay-burley-on-deficit-failure/
All that borrowing racked up over the last five years is just deferred taxation.
Second, UKIP voters may switch to Conservative in larger numbers. Ashcroft already reported this in his survey. As the polls have reported a close contest, UKIP voters may decide to return to the Conservative fold to keep Labour out especially in the marginal constituencies. This is something that you could not have factored into the polls in advance.
Third, and perhaps most significantly, the voters have been reporting some dissonance – they favor Labour but prefer Cameron as Prime Minister. They trust the Conservatives more on all of the key issues of importance and, moreover, most people that expect the Conservatives to win the election. Something had to give. You can't have it both ways.
Here lies Jack,
Broken-hearted.
ARSE looked good
But only farted.
Am wondering what Bristol City Council will look like given some wards are also voting for councillors.
Is it usual for candidates to go visiting polling stations or should they be keeping out the way and getting some sleep?
The Tory leadership are 'sans' passion and cannot communicate. Labour are effing useless and ignorant but they know how to twang the heart strings. I've told blue leadership this for years but they don't listen.
And if Labour have more seats there will not be another election for 5 years because SNP will abstain or support.
http://order-order.com/2015/05/07/computer-says-no-last-minute-tory-campaign-software-fail/
The was an old fellow called Jack
Who refused to ever row back
Now his ARSE is in pieces
Bits of skin, blood and faeces
Our Nostrodamus has now got the sack
In the polling booth, the latter trumped the former
I know my constituency is safe but those voting in Bury North and South - its so, so tight. Vote for @Frith4BuryNorth and @IvanLewis_MP
Last election won was 1992, 23 years ago, so it's not surprising the institutional memory of how to win an election has disappeared. The Tories were once the 'natural' party of government...
Labour left the deficit so high that to reduce it to zero in 5 years in the face of no growth in the Eurozone and was always going to be almost impossible. Greece has done it by having austerity so severe that there have been riots, and pay cuts the like of which have never been seen before. Do you advocate Greek-style austerity here?
If even people like you who are economically aware aren't giving the tories credit for what they have achieved no wonder they are in trouble.
That has the 2015 UK budget running a 4% deficit, which is worse than... the US, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal or Spain. But better than Japan. Which is a relief.
I can almost imagine a happy couple being asked by a gushing teller, can I have your polling card.
Who advised on what outcome to back
His ARSE vindicated
Should now be gold plated
from both of the cheeks to the crack
@martinboon: @TSEofPB To much hilarity,my new name around the @ICMResearch office is the "ginger stepchild". You know not what you've done.
Do they still exist anywhere?
You're right that the deficit remains a serious problem (as does the trade deficit) but don't underestimate the costs of having tackled it much more quickly. Personally, I'd rather more progress had been made but I wouldn't want to be running a surplus at the moment having inherited a 10% deficit in 2010 and gone through the Euroslowdown in 2011-13.
In Spain, in Portugal and in Ireland, there have been dramatic, across the board, cuts to civil servant salaries.
We've mildly cut the growth of public sector spending. That is not austerity.
That being said I'd be staggered if Ivan Lewis gets less than a 4000 majority. I'd also be surprised if the majority in Bury N isn't less than 1000, whichever way it goes.
And stuck to it with much conviction
When the results did come in
It got chucked in the bin
And his ARSE lost all semblance of friction
His charismatic personality works well for a city mayor, but he's another rich posh boy to those outside London. The rather colourful back story won't help him on the national stage either. Also can't see him getting votes of the Tory MPs in the first ballot, when a few of their own have been positioning for years for the job.
I'd go with a safe pair of hands, a Hammond or May for the autumn election.
All very quiet.
[Edit: that was what really convinced me something odd was happening. Though there is more than one interpretation.]
I think Osborne is still ok, but move him to Home Office.
Very very quiet - guess the rush will start after 6pm...
I'm planning to stay up all night (have taken two days annual leave for this) - better be worth it!
https://twitter.com/rorymeakin/status/593907055355912194
As it was in my youth ...... yes I just about remember them. Got some petrol coupons in front of me as I type.
But .... The Ghost Of JackW Will Return To Haunt ARSE Deniers ....
Fancy that! Ladies and Gentlemen, behold; the disappearing UKIP act, now watch the bunny closely........................
You could name them the Conservative Unhinged Nervous Tinkerbells.
We have not seen any negative consequences of profligacy, and until we do the public won't see any need for balancing the books.
We have not seen any negative consequences of profligacy, and until we do the public won't see any need for balancing the books.
-----
This.
Talk of debts and deficit is completely abstract for most people. Riots and queues for bread would focus a few minds.
BF is DC 1.95 EM 2.08
Con most seats 1.25 Lab most seats 4.8
Anything to move these figures before the exit poll?
The government competes with private companies and individuals to attract savers' pounds, dollars and Euros. We borrow for a mortgage. A company borrows to build a factory. And the government borrows because it's politically easier than reducing spending.
When you go to get a mortgage, or a personal loan, the price of that loan (the interest rate) will be higher because the government is borrowing close more than 4% of GDP. Right now, we don't see it because of the combination of our own (historic) QE and Eurozone QE - but as those roll over, we will pay through our mortgages for the profligacy of government.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/this-is-why-leftie-brendan-oneill-wont-be-giving-red-ed-his-x/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunNation-_-20150507-_-SunNation-_-177805817
"I’d rather sauté my own testicles than give my X to the Miliband-run Labour Party. For me, being left-wing has always meant three things:
1) Being in favour of big economic growth, so that everyone can have more stuff and live plush, plump, comfortable lives.
2) Believing ordinary people are capable of running their own lives, without needing experts to hold their hands and whisper patronising advice in their lugholes.
3) Wanting more freedom — especially freedom of speech and press freedom— so that new ideas might be aired and talked about.
Certainly when I first hurled myself head-first into radical politics, when I was 19 and red with fury at the world, that was the stuff that stirred me."
Me too, comrade. And that's why I was a Conservative back then and ever since.
Funny old world.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone in 2010 had an error over three votes last time but since Sinn Fein won by four votes the election was upheld.
Not a good use of resources...
Though given its the seventieth anniversary of VE Day, I'd have thought that could be a lead report.
So, maybe, just maybe it is indeed close - helped by a surprising UKIP showing (it's next door to Heywood & Middleton too)....