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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB close the gap with Ipsos and get within 1% with Ashcrof

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB close the gap with Ipsos and get within 1% with Ashcroft

CON lead down from 5 to 1 in final Ipsos MORI
CON 36
LAB 35
LD 11
UKIP 8

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    1st ?

    All pollsters behaving as if part of a herd. No one wants to be left out out on their own.

    It was not me, guv !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    Polls wrong. UKIP surging.

    Everyone knows this because @MikeK told us.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mike - UKIP/LibDem figures wrong way round in your Ipsos MORI post
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited May 2015
    Is that all the pollsters now within a hair's breadth?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    If the Tories really do poll 36% I've no doubt Cameron will be back in Downing Street. That's a drop of just 0.9% from 2010.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lmao Spin back out to 25
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    AndyJS said:

    If the Tories really do poll 36% I've no doubt Cameron will be back in Downing Street.

    Not if Labour get 35%, massive Con--->Lab swing.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SPIN - Con edge up 1 to +25
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    An interesting poll for those with bets on UKIP getting more votes than the LDs and vice versa.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    DanSmith said:

    AndyJS said:

    If the Tories really do poll 36% I've no doubt Cameron will be back in Downing Street.

    Not if Labour get 35%, massive Con--->Lab swing.
    I thought UNS was declared DOA?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    at this point I'd bite your hand off for blues getting 290 seats.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2015
    Test

    (All will be revealed shortly!)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Thought you were not supposed to publish polls on polling day. Clearly a myth.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/596202440090853377
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    so just ICM left to go/tie then?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2015
    AndyJS said:

    An interesting poll for those with bets on UKIP getting more votes than the LDs and vice versa.

    The two pollsters that produce the lowest UKIP shares are ICM and Ipsos. Both telephone pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9350

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9281

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    If the Tories really do poll 36% I've no doubt Cameron will be back in Downing Street. That's a drop of just 0.9% from 2010.

    When will this wishful thinking end ? Exit poll ? Probably not. I think when the final result has been announced.

    Cam could be back at No.10 with 36% if Labour get less than 33%.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Stephen Fisher: The rowback has started
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Lord Ashcroft‏@LordAshcroft·33 secs34 seconds ago
    All the final polls so far seem to be showing a move towards Labour...

    hmm.... that is a little sub optimal.

    not long to wait at least.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    ICM to come right?

    Then the exit. First time I've ever been exit polled.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    An interesting poll for those with bets on UKIP getting more votes than the LDs and vice versa.

    The two pollsters that produce the lowest UKIP shares are ICM and Ipsos. Both telephone pollsters that don't prompt for UKIP.

    Also, it's UKIP 11, LDs 8

    The headline is wrong
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    What a blinking tease

    @guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Looks like Cam will have plenty of time to Chillax starting tomorrow...
  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    As the polls move towards Labour, the Betfair odds on Cameron as PM continue to fall, now 1.86 from 2.64 about a week ago.

    Very odd
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Purseybear said:

    ICM to come right?

    Then the exit. First time I've ever been exit polled.

    Exit poll online or the phone ? I thought exit poll meant as a poll of people leaving the polling station !
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Vote Liberal or we'll shoot your dog.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/596263321361379328
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    For all the talk about move to lab which may be true am I right that labour haven't led in a single final poll except panel base?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What a blinking tease

    @guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

    if lab move ahead then the impression of a late swing but to Labour will be complete.

    what fun....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    An interesting poll for those with bets on UKIP getting more votes than the LDs and vice versa.

    The numbers are the wrong way round in mikes tweet
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What a blinking tease

    @guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

    Oooooooo..... :open_mouth:

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Have we had new polls actually posted on polling day before? It somehow seems kinda of wrong, given the broadcast media "black-out".
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SeanT said:

    Ed Miliband plurality. You read it here last.

    I'll say this your writing lacks nothing in clarity but all of it is fiction.

  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Just bumped into CEO of the borough im in who is also returning officer.He stated that they are expecting a very high turnout based on the initial few hours voting between 75 and 80%.
    Its a SW LD/Tory marginal.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    surbiton said:

    Purseybear said:

    ICM to come right?

    Then the exit. First time I've ever been exit polled.

    Exit poll online or the phone ? I thought exit poll meant as a poll of people leaving the polling station !
    Yeah I was exit polled by ipsos mori for Sky-BBC and something else [itv?] as I came out the polling station.

    Funny thing is I didn't decide til I went into the polling booth!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/596202440090853377

    Reading between the lines: Minimum 6, a dozen is possible. I doubt the second one. But SNP is dropping in SPIN.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    An interesting poll for those with bets on UKIP getting more votes than the LDs and vice versa.

    The numbers are the wrong way round in mikes tweet
    Okay, so it's UKIP 11%, LD 8%...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    This is interesting. Constituency prediction by Google searches.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3070470/Google-Search-tips-Cameron-win-election-Nigel-Farage-s-Ukip-beat-Labour-Liberal-Democrats.html
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What a blinking tease

    @guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

    Well if it's a twist, nailed on Lab lead of 1 or 2%
    This looks over!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Test

    (All will be revealed shortly!)

    Yellow boxes!!!!

    Is it, you, Avery?

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Twitter has a fair smattering of young people who haven't registered, their registration got lost or they are registered in the wrong place - and they've just realised it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JackW said:

    SPIN - Con edge up 1 to +25

    Congratulations ! Some more idiots losing Daddy's money !
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like Cam will have plenty of time to Chillax starting tomorrow...

    ARSE denier.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    Which seat?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    If the final result is something like 35-32 to the Tories, does that count as a failure of polling, or is it all MOE stuff? It looks to me like they are pretty well covered unless there is a 5%+ gap between the two parties. That said, has there ever been so much coalescence at the end of a campaign. Even last time, there was some divergence.

    If Fisher is right it probably explains Cameron's multiple visits to LD seats over the last week or so.

    I can't help thinking that from here on in, there has to be much more attention paid to individual regions within England. We have always talked about the north/south divide, but it is increasingly clear that the east is very different to the west.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    anotherDave said:

    This is interesting. Constituency prediction by Google searches.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3070470/Google-Search-tips-Cameron-win-election-Nigel-Farage-s-Ukip-beat-Labour-Liberal-Democrats.html

    UKIP on 221. Anybody want a bet ;-) ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    anotherDave said:

    This is interesting. Constituency prediction by Google searches.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3070470/Google-Search-tips-Cameron-win-election-Nigel-Farage-s-Ukip-beat-Labour-Liberal-Democrats.html

    Interesting and bollocks. Horsham is painted red for example. Clearly a betting opportunity if true.
  • peterouldpeterould Posts: 11
    Do we have any data tables for MORI?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    The WHO report today came out with some very concerning numbers about levels of obesity in the UK. Apparently, 64% of women and 75% of men will be overweight by 2030. That's a sad state to be in as a country. We really need to do a much better job of teaching children how to manage nutrition and fitness when they're at school.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    Are you asking how they are voting or are they just telling you because they see the rosette?
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Oh dear. I think Mr Hodges has started early. Prose too purple for even the kippest Kipper's tie.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    See that IPSOS Mori's figures are based on an 82% 10/10 turnout.
    The detailed figures for this poll are not available on their website.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    Neil said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Test

    (All will be revealed shortly!)

    Yellow boxes!!!!

    Is it, you, Avery?

    Was Avery, Nabavi all along ? Good cop / bad cop ? No. Both are Tories !
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    FPT:

    I know: I am being a mischievous minx. Delicious, though!

    Anyway, to continue my jeu d'esprit:-

    1. It would likely stop Scottish independence.
    2. If UKIP are a busted flush tomorrow, he wouldn't have to fear much on that score.
    3. The Tories would be in the politicial equivalent of a psychiatric ward.
    4. The Lib Dems would be on side.
    5. He could get some token back from the EU enabling him to say that he had achieved something by contrast with the Tories.
    6. The City wouldn't care that much provided they can carry on making money and being the leading financial centre.
    6. It would be vv difficult to reverse so he would go down in history.
    7. And a relatively strong British economy might be the fillip the EZ needs.

    I'm not putting my personal views here. Just putting forward a madcap idea since we need some fun on a day like this.

    But if it happens I will be an unparalleled political seer and will be available to offer my services since I will no doubt be unemployed following the Terror of the Milliband Tax Regime.

    On a more serious point, a small Q at my polling station and I made one of the officers laugh by saying that we had a choice between the Cr*p and the Complacent.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    So theses are people who are at home all day and are either retired or unemployed?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What a blinking tease

    @guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

    Sounds like a Lab ICM lead to me..
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2015
    Neil said:

    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    Are you asking how they are voting or are they just telling you because they see the rosette?
    Either way, that's a minimum of 33% of them voting UKIP. Small sample - obviously! And assumes they are not fibbing.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Telegraph editor sends emails to subscribers telling them to vote Tory. Some of them are not pleased since they signed up for technology and finance emails:

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/07/daily-telegraph-tories-email-david-cameron-labour
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Paul Waugh:

    "So many Cabinet ministers have now told me the ‘surge’ will come only today that I think they really believe it.
    Note that the PM and George Osborne themselves use this oddly quasi-religious phrase that ‘I have faith in the common sense of the British people’. And it does feel like blind faith, a something-in-my-waters, bunion-feeling sentiment.
    The one thing the pollsters may fall back on is that they simply can’t be blamed for not picking up a last minute, on-the-day ‘surge’. But failing to pick up any underlying movement in the final week of the campaign would be problematic for their reputations."
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like Cam will have plenty of time to Chillax starting tomorrow...

    ARSE denier.

    Is this a measure of the ability of a pair of tights to spare a lady's blushes about revealing what sort of pantyhose she's wearing? ;)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    "Researchers then converted this into the number of seats the parties could win in the General Election - with Conservatives on 237, UKIP on 221 and Labour in third place with 125"

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3070470/Google-Search-tips-Cameron-win-election-Nigel-Farage-s-Ukip-beat-Labour-Liberal-Democrats.html#ixzz3ZRudjKoB
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


    Question: Who are the idiots ? These "researchers" or their bosses and paymasters ?

    Is this why fees went up to £9000 per year to pay for this ?

    Kingston and Surbiton searching for, wait a minute, Nigel Farage.

    John [ Johannes ] Vorster next.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Anorak said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    Are you asking how they are voting or are they just telling you because they see the rosette?
    Either way, that's a minimum of 33% of them voting UKIP. Small sample - obviously! And assumes they are not fibbing.
    It's a self-selecting sample too (ie voting during the day in a specific location - most unlikely to be representative of the constituency as a whole).

    But I must admit I've never had so many people tell me they've voting Green while telling even in solidly Green areas (yes, there are some).
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    AndyJS said:

    Telegraph editor sends emails to subscribers telling them to vote Tory. Some of them are not pleased since they signed up for technology and finance emails:

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/07/daily-telegraph-tories-email-david-cameron-labour

    Given the impact a Labour gov will have on national finances, then I'm not sure what half of them are moaning about.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JEO said:

    The WHO report today came out with some very concerning numbers about levels of obesity in the UK. Apparently, 64% of women and 75% of men will be overweight by 2030. That's a sad state to be in as a country. We really need to do a much better job of teaching children how to manage nutrition and fitness when they're at school.

    At least we're not as bad as Ireland where 90% will be overweight by 2030.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What a blinking tease

    @guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

    Sounds like a Lab ICM lead to me..
    Yes, I think so. There's been a late move to Labour, not the Tories. Why on earth this has happened, I have no idea, but I doubt ICM would buck that trend.

    Particularly not if the Guardian are tweeting it.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Neil said:

    Anorak said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    Are you asking how they are voting or are they just telling you because they see the rosette?
    Either way, that's a minimum of 33% of them voting UKIP. Small sample - obviously! And assumes they are not fibbing.
    It's a self-selecting sample too (ie voting during the day in a specific location - most unlikely to be representative of the constituency as a whole).

    But I must admit I've never had so many people tell me they've voting Green while telling even in solidly Green areas (yes, there are some).
    Oh it's a very, very, very poor predictor of outcome. Interesting, nevertheless.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What a blinking tease

    @guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

    Sounds like a Lab ICM lead to me..
    As the last icm was 35-35 a twist could be either. Given the apparent nudge to labour tho you'd tend to agree. Or maybe not. Maybe there are some like me who vote tory at very last minute.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The problem for the Tories and their late surge is that ALL the evidence is for it going the other way, they are certainly forming up their own vote but it looks like the Greens are going to hold their nose for Lab, there is no evidence yet that the Blue Kippers are reciprocating.
    Surely at so,e point the betting has to move once those 'in the know' start to smell profit
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The pollsters move into line has eviscerated their last shred of credibility.
    Go with yout gut.
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    Ig now have libs at 27.5-29.5, up 2 today.
    have sold it, as it seems too high to me....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    Which seat?
    Dag and Rainham

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    llef said:

    Ig now have libs at 27.5-29.5, up 2 today.
    have sold it, as it seems too high to me....

    seems v high

    still, if maidstone & the weald has been gained by the libs, who knows...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    dyedwoolie said:

    The problem for the Tories and their late surge is that ALL the evidence is for it going the other way, they are certainly forming up their own vote but it looks like the Greens are going to hold their nose for Lab, there is no evidence yet that the Blue Kippers are reciprocating.
    Surely at so,e point the betting has to move once those 'in the know' start to smell profit

    I don't just think it is "nose holding". Ed has given left wing voters some reason to vote for him, Tories approach is based upon their polling guy Cooper who told them that EU was peak UKIP moment and it would be rapidly downhill from there and the vast majority would just come back the Tories by the time of the GE, so the Tories focus was to be on the middle ground e.g. more spending on unreformed NHS, more free childcare, continuing to spend a lot of foreign aid...a lot of the sort of stuff that is exactly what right wing UKIP types don't want to hear.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Casino_Royale said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What a blinking tease

    @guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

    Sounds like a Lab ICM lead to me..
    Yes, I think so. There's been a late move to Labour, not the Tories. Why on earth this has happened, I have no idea, but I doubt ICM would buck that trend.

    Particularly not if the Guardian are tweeting it.
    All those lefties saying they they were going to vote Green/SNP/UKIP/stay at home have gone back where they belong when push came to shove...

    The same happened in 2010 to some degree. If you remember Lab did quite well given the circumstances....

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    Which seat?
    Dag and Rainham

    I've taken the 9s available with many bookmakers.
    Don't expect to win, mind :-)

    Tiny anecdote: the two Conservative voters in our office who live in H&WG have both - after much dithering - voted tactically for Lynne Featherstone.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Neil said:

    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    Are you asking how they are voting or are they just telling you because they see the rosette?
    They are telling me when they see the rosette I am not asking that's not allowed

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    Which seat?
    Dag and Rainham

    I'm predicting UKIP to get around 30% there.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Prodicus said:

    Paul Waugh:

    "So many Cabinet ministers have now told me the ‘surge’ will come only today that I think they really believe it.
    Note that the PM and George Osborne themselves use this oddly quasi-religious phrase that ‘I have faith in the common sense of the British people’. And it does feel like blind faith, a something-in-my-waters, bunion-feeling sentiment.
    The one thing the pollsters may fall back on is that they simply can’t be blamed for not picking up a last minute, on-the-day ‘surge’. But failing to pick up any underlying movement in the final week of the campaign would be problematic for their reputations."

    It's less a surge, more a rally. And it's around Labour, not the Tories.

    None of it makes sense. I simply can't work this election out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Tories going, going...and soon to be gone. It's not the result I would prefer, but at least 5 years of saying Labour would win will not go out the window (even though I had to revise it from Lab maj to plurality)
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    dyedwoolie said:

    If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!

    or just margin of error! think about it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Casino_Royale said:

    Prodicus said:

    Paul Waugh:

    "So many Cabinet ministers have now told me the ‘surge’ will come only today that I think they really believe it.
    Note that the PM and George Osborne themselves use this oddly quasi-religious phrase that ‘I have faith in the common sense of the British people’. And it does feel like blind faith, a something-in-my-waters, bunion-feeling sentiment.
    The one thing the pollsters may fall back on is that they simply can’t be blamed for not picking up a last minute, on-the-day ‘surge’. But failing to pick up any underlying movement in the final week of the campaign would be problematic for their reputations."

    It's less a surge, more a rally. And it's around Labour, not the Tories.

    None of it makes sense. I simply can't work this election out.
    It's more a hardening of certainty to vote I think
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Purseybear said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!

    or just margin of error! think about it.
    Presumably we'll be able to see for ourselves once they put up tables.

    Or did they not publish tables for the "preliminary" result yesterday?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    There is a third option......
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Er ICM is not out yet. A final twist could be ICM moving the other way.

    A late Labour swing could be people giving Ed the benefit of the doubt. The Tory vote, such that it is, was never really in doubt. So not that much scope for late swings. Maybe.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    47 mins into my telling

    49 voters
    16 have volunteered they are Ukip

    Which seat?
    Dag and Rainham

    I've taken the 9s available with many bookmakers.
    Don't expect to win, mind :-)

    Tiny anecdote: the two Conservative voters in our office who live in H&WG have both - after much dithering - voted tactically for Lynne Featherstone.
    I spoke to the candidate and he seems genuinely confident... Says the council workers are all onside

    Mind you 20/75 now
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    The WHO report today came out with some very concerning numbers about levels of obesity in the UK. Apparently, 64% of women and 75% of men will be overweight by 2030. That's a sad state to be in as a country. We really need to do a much better job of teaching children how to manage nutrition and fitness when they're at school.

    At least we're not as bad as Ireland where 90% will be overweight by 2030.
    It's no wonder the West is being outcompeted by Asia. It's hard to have the same amount of energy if you're carrying around so much excess weight. I don't think any of the political parties have appreciated the importance of this issue yet.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    llef said:

    Ig now have libs at 27.5-29.5, up 2 today.
    have sold it, as it seems too high to me....

    28 mid point is spot on my ARSE.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Casino_Royale said:

    Prodicus said:

    Paul Waugh:

    "So many Cabinet ministers have now told me the ‘surge’ will come only today that I think they really believe it.
    Note that the PM and George Osborne themselves use this oddly quasi-religious phrase that ‘I have faith in the common sense of the British people’. And it does feel like blind faith, a something-in-my-waters, bunion-feeling sentiment.
    The one thing the pollsters may fall back on is that they simply can’t be blamed for not picking up a last minute, on-the-day ‘surge’. But failing to pick up any underlying movement in the final week of the campaign would be problematic for their reputations."

    It's less a surge, more a rally. And it's around Labour, not the Tories.

    None of it makes sense. I simply can't work this election out.
    My notoriously unreliable gut says that a surprising number of people did not seen to believe Labour could win, but the reality of the coalition mathetmatics and lack of movement in the polls seems to have finally convinced people in the past day or so, and now perhaps Lab people considering staying at home because what's the point, are now realising they could help tip Lab from a good result to a great result.

    What movement there is does appear to be toward Labour, in general.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    It is raining in Broxtowe.

    Pic of East Midlands Labour MEP GOTV there

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEZd8PvW0AIdoae.jpg
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    dyedwoolie said:

    If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!

    Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Ahem. Anecdotal argument against postal voting (Health warning: it's the Mash):

    “Guess what, postal voters: I shot a load of zoo animals this morning, for no reason. And what are you going to do about it? Nothing, because you’ve already voted for me just to save yourself five minutes’ walk to a primary school.”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Could the final twist be a Lib Dem surge...snigger....

    BTW, when are the Lib Dem's starting their GE campaign?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I'm still thinking the Tories will be ahead by 10 seats.

    But I'm very sanguine* about the result. I harbour none of the visceral, irrational hatred I had for Gordon Brown back in 2010 and given that I like following politics for the blood-sport, I think Ed Miliband would be very interesting viewing as PM.

    I still can't imagine it, not even now, despite its likelihood.

    Ed Miliband as PM! Ed Miliband meeting Putin and Obama, shaking hands with the Queen once a week and greeting diplomats at Chequers?

    Ed Miliband whom even Damien Mcbride (his mate and colleague) disparages and admits can't make a decision for toffee.

    This will be fun.

    *It's easy to be sanguine in Wales. We have no money anyway - we just get it off the EU :)
  • indianhavenindianhaven Posts: 22
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Have we had new polls actually posted on polling day before? It somehow seems kinda of wrong, given the broadcast media "black-out".

    The Evening Standard have usually published a poll on election day- but broadcasters cannot refer to it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What a blinking tease

    @guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

    if lab move ahead then the impression of a late swing but to Labour will be complete.

    what fun....
    There has been no late swing.

    I thought the Question Time debate was a disaster ! The man can't eat a bacon sandwich. He knifed his brother in the back. Didn't he say the Labour Party "did not overspend".

    Surely, there could not be any late swing to Labour. Could it ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    JEO said:

    AndyJS said:

    JEO said:

    The WHO report today came out with some very concerning numbers about levels of obesity in the UK. Apparently, 64% of women and 75% of men will be overweight by 2030. That's a sad state to be in as a country. We really need to do a much better job of teaching children how to manage nutrition and fitness when they're at school.

    At least we're not as bad as Ireland where 90% will be overweight by 2030.
    It's no wonder the West is being outcompeted by Asia. It's hard to have the same amount of energy if you're carrying around so much excess weight. I don't think any of the political parties have appreciated the importance of this issue yet.
    The direct and indirect cost to the country is enormous.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    What if ICM have detected a last minute shift rightwards and are holding as long as possible so they can say they are the only firm to have picked up on this?
    Still think it will be 35/34 or 33 in fav of Lab though
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    JackW said:

    llef said:

    Ig now have libs at 27.5-29.5, up 2 today.
    have sold it, as it seems too high to me....

    28 mid point is spot on my ARSE.

    I hear Clearasil is good.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,471
    Quiet at the local polling booth in Wanstead.

    Only two tellers, Con and Lab. A few posters in windows on the way, all Labour.
This discussion has been closed.