the real pleasure in this though will be seeing labour destroyed in its heartland of Scotland, surely this is the beginning of the strange death of the Labour party
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
If that is really so, then the Tories really are in trouble.
Nah, I live in Nick Clegg's constituency.
Tories aren't going to win this seat.
So I was facing the situation of voting tactically for the very first time.
Labour should be talking up the Tories' chances in Hallam. It's a former Tory seat, the Tories were 2nd last time.
Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability 07 May 2015 General Election Nigel Farage Prime Minister After General Election 970 £0.10 £96.90
Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, that one!
I wonder if the formal meeting with the Queen will take a lot longer than usual this time around. She's seen a lot of different elections, she could have some interesting thoughts to share with Ed, not to mention curiosity about what he plans to do, especially regarding the SNP.
Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability 07 May 2015 General Election Nigel Farage Prime Minister After General Election 970 £0.10 £96.90
Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, that one!
And, if you watched today's test, you would fall in love with cricket. It has been absolutely gripping. Even a cricket cynic like yourself would have switched
ComRes and Opinium late stragglers for April fieldwork - need to re-calculate monthly figures for April
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
If that is really so, then the Tories really are in trouble.
Nah, I live in Nick Clegg's constituency.
Tories aren't going to win this seat.
So I was facing the situation of voting tactically for the very first time.
Labour should be talking up the Tories' chances in Hallam. It's a former Tory seat, the Tories were 2nd last time.
Ian Walker has quite a few signs up outside houses in the key LD/Tory battleground of Totley. I even saw a Coppard poster there.
Dore seems a bit more Cleggy. But this is all highly anecdotal.
One thing David Cameron has said that he will do the right thing for the Country. I read into that that if he thinks he can't form a government he will resign. In those circumstances he will go down as one of the best prime ministers, having held together a difficult coalition for five years, and then not tried to hang on to power. I do believe he will do the right thing and if he loses powerhe will become a very respected statesman in time
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
Will it be an x for Walker or Cleggy boy.
I was tempted to draw a phallus shaped object next to Clegg's name indicating a clear preference for one candidate.
However the X went next to Ian Walker's name
That has to be the right way to vote. As Connery said in Dr No, 'That's a Smith & Wesson, and you've had your six.'
Presumably Cameron can sit tight on a minority until Miliband can prove he can command a majority in the house. That proof would require fomal c&s or coalition deals. I suspect the tories are trying to flush out the 'deal' that Miliband has publicly rejected out of hand.
Miliband has to prove nothing other than Cameron can't command the House in a confidence vote.
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
Taking the mood on PB tonight as wisdom, 10/11 on eicipm from Hills looks like free money. Or have I simply tuned in on bad night?
Value but not free money
And I am mr EICIPM
Some advice please - I simply have to be in the best place for some.
I'm having some of this value (not free money).
How soon does Dave have to resign before a bookmaker would pay out my on EICIPM?
I'm guessing if it goes to the Queen's Speech and then Dave resigns, technically Ed is not next prime minister after the election (although in reality, of course, he is). What if it takes 2 week to get the bugger out? Is there a rule or does it depend on the bookmaker?
I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.
Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.
Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.
I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.
I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
Not so.
That's DEFINITELY what Nick Palmer indicated - if you don't agree go and read his comments for yourself.
I saw a model online today that has Dundee East at 99.4% for the Nats, I've asked them if their simulations really produce 6 losses in every 1000 runs.
Can PBers do me a favour, and dig out the links for some of the SNP candidates who have come out with, ahem, interesting comments.
I know one said something about No voters being Quislings and another wanted the economy to explode/crash as it would help Scottish independence.
Except they never said that.
The "Quislings" came from the Tweet danger of tweet-linking a story - in this case one from BBC Scotlandshire.
The "explode/crash" was a (reasonable) expectation not a hope or aspiration.
The precise Neil Hay tweet showed a link to a No event and stated prizewinners at this year's quisling awards. That sounds pretty much like he did say it to me.
FOOTBALL supporters have launched a campaign calling for Brendan O'Hara to stand down as the SNP's candidate for Argyll and Bute after using the word 'hun' about Rangers fans on a Celtic forum.
I guess he will get on well with Mhairi Black who tweeted that she f*** hates Celtic fans.
Many of the SNP prospective MPs are a timebomb waiting to explode but will be entertaining if nothing else. I have stated before I think Labour will save about 10MPs and nothing I have seen recently goes against this prediction. The SNP have really got the younger vote motivated but I am not sure they have convinced enough of the older voters.
I guess we should leave it to Neil Hay again who tweeted. told I was not fit to vote when umpteen poor souls in the elderly bracket can vote but don't know their own name. Insulting the old and mentally sick at the same time. Impressive.
Well, I'd avoid those Greens, they sound dangerous.
The Greens aren't standing in my constituency so I can't vote for a Green for parliament. I'll be voting for them in the local council election though - that's the only thing I'm sure of.
Miliband has to prove nothing other than Cameron can't command the House in a confidence vote.
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
How does Miliband prove it, without having a vote?
And Miliband becomes PM, until he loses a confidence vote, which might be the same day
Yes quite, the only thing to prove it is a vote.
And yes, Miliband (as a brief PM) could then go on to lose his own vote.
There might be a final attempt to put something together (e.g. grand coalition), else there's another election.
In those circumstances I would expect Miliband to resign (after 6 hours, or 2 days or whatever as PM), and Lizzie reappoint Cameron as "caretaker" for the inevitable second election. It would not seem "cricket" otherwise.
Taking the mood on PB tonight as wisdom, 10/11 on eicipm from Hills looks like free money. Or have I simply tuned in on bad night?
Value but not free money
And I am mr EICIPM
Some advice please - I simply have to be in the best place for some.
I'm having some of this value (not free money).
How soon does Dave have to resign before a bookmaker would pay out my on EICIPM?
I'm guessing if it goes to the Queen's Speech and then Dave resigns, technically Ed is not next prime minister after the election (although in reality, of course, he is). What if it takes 2 week to get the bugger out? Is there a rule or does it depend on the bookmaker?
It's a good question - depends on the bookmaker.
I think Ladbrokes specifically state that the bet settles on who is PM on 1st June (?) - the other bookmakers are a little ambiguous. IMO, if there's no formal coalition, they'll wait until a queens speech vote before settling bets. But please don't take my word for it - check with your bookmaker of choice before betting.
I did also wonder about Mr Palmer of this parish, when he said the other day he would be relaxed about his fate, "win or lose". It was the first time he had publically acknowledged that failure was a potential outcome.
Things that make you go " hmmmmmmm...."
Grrr, I get ticked off for hubris when I say I expect to win, and psychoanalysed when I say I'm personally relaxed. Both are true; the former has been true since October, and the latter has always been true. I think it's actually easier to win votes if voters can see you're not absolutely desperate and have a real life.
That's a particularly interesting one, since it shows that putting Boris in doesn't help at all (and naming Miliband doesn't hurt at all, undermining part of the Tory election strategy). Isn't it fair to say that most senior tories have severe doubts about Boris, qualified only by the suspicion that he might get them votes?
Except when the pollster ask if the Tories were led by Boris rather than Cameron, how would you vote, and the Tories get several % bump. Enough of a bump to actually win.
Except that they don't - in this poll, at any rate?
As others have said, we poll junkies presumably now have a 4-day cold turkey period. Doubtful that anything political will move between now and Wednesday, with half the country on holiday and the other half riveted by baby news.
I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.
Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.
Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.
I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.
I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
Not so.
That's DEFINITELY what Nick Palmer indicated - if you don't agree go and read his comments for yourself.
I've just come back to this. Maybe there is some confusion- I am going to help the Labour cause in Broxtowe which is one thing, but I'm sure the Victoria soiree on the 5th May evening is an open ended invite for allcomers of all persuasions, age, gender, sexual preferences, and even those who are hair challenged for Midland pbers. I saw Nick even trying to entice SeanT to come. I am away now, but I've asked Nick to clarify.
Anyway good night all for the last time and hope to see some of you there.
At the WGC Cadillac match play, there is a War of the Roses going on as Southport's Tommy Fleetwood plays Sheffield's Danny Willett. They are just teeing off on 2.
Miliband has to prove nothing other than Cameron can't command the House in a confidence vote.
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
How does Miliband prove it, without having a vote?
And Miliband becomes PM, until he loses a confidence vote, which might be the same day
Yes quite, the only thing to prove it is a vote.
And yes, Miliband (as a brief PM) could then go on to lose his own vote.
There might be a final attempt to put something together (e.g. grand coalition), else there's another election.
In those circumstances I would expect Miliband to resign (after 6 hours, or 2 days or whatever as PM), and Lizzie reappoint Cameron as "caretaker" for the inevitable second election. It would not seem "cricket" otherwise.
We're all agreed then: if Ed does become PM it will only be for a matter of days. Ed is absolutely going to smash George Canning's record of Britain's shortest serving PM (119 days)!
Lets not forget this is the couple who were claiming totally the wrong amount for their mortgage on expenses too....At least I guess he didn't pay the workman cash in hand.
By the way, our mini-PB event on Tuesday (see tyson's post below) should have tyson, fox, TSE, Tissue Price and me. I make that 2 Lab, 2 Con and an LD - 'tis a hung pub. Anyone else? We need a Scottish Nationalist...
I've backed draw at 16/1. Split decision at 5/1. And laid a five hundred quid against both fighters getting knocked down average 10/1. I'm already halfway drunk and may regret the latter but I'll be shocked if anyone gets knocked down here. Floyd has never been knocked down in his entire career. So this price in particular looks insanely short to me.
Draw and split decision on the cards should be good enough to setup an even more lucrative rematch. Controversy creates cash.
Taking the mood on PB tonight as wisdom, 10/11 on eicipm from Hills looks like free money. Or have I simply tuned in on bad night?
Value but not free money
And I am mr EICIPM
Some advice please - I simply have to be in the best place for some.
I'm having some of this value (not free money).
How soon does Dave have to resign before a bookmaker would pay out my on EICIPM?
I'm guessing if it goes to the Queen's Speech and then Dave resigns, technically Ed is not next prime minister after the election (although in reality, of course, he is). What if it takes 2 week to get the bugger out? Is there a rule or does it depend on the bookmaker?
It's a good question - depends on the bookmaker.
I think Ladbrokes specifically state that the bet settles on who is PM on 1st June (?) - the other bookmakers are a little ambiguous. IMO, if there's no formal coalition, they'll wait until a queens speech vote before settling bets. But please don't take my word for it - check with your bookmaker of choice before betting.
I have my most recent bookie 6-4 Hills bets settling up at August 1st - so a touch of potential for double winner/fall through the middle with Betfair next PM. But I'm relaxed about it - an autumn Election will be after August 1st if Ed seeks a stronger mandate.
Miliband has to prove nothing other than Cameron can't command the House in a confidence vote.
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
How does Miliband prove it, without having a vote?
And Miliband becomes PM, until he loses a confidence vote, which might be the same day
Yes quite, the only thing to prove it is a vote.
And yes, Miliband (as a brief PM) could then go on to lose his own vote.
There might be a final attempt to put something together (e.g. grand coalition), else there's another election.
In those circumstances I would expect Miliband to resign (after 6 hours, or 2 days or whatever as PM), and Lizzie reappoint Cameron as "caretaker" for the inevitable second election. It would not seem "cricket" otherwise.
We're all agreed then: if Ed does become PM it will only be for a matter of days. Ed is absolutely going to smash George Canning's record of Britain's shortest serving PM (119 days)!
Earl of Bath, 48 hours, seven minutes and 11 seconds.
Shame some people don't even consider him to have been PM at all...
Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability 07 May 2015 General Election Nigel Farage Prime Minister After General Election 970 £0.10 £96.90
Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, that one!
Harriet Harman is the Labour 1000-1 candidate.
Who is the Conservative one ?
If we're talking 1000-1, it's whichever Conservative would be acceptable to a Labour DPM if nobody else can command a majority but nobody can face a second election, isn't it? Ken? Sarah Wollaston? Heseltine?!
By the way, our mini-PB event on Tuesday (see tyson's post below) should have tyson, fox, TSE, Tissue Price and me. I make that 2 Lab, 2 Con and an LD - 'tis a hung pub. Anyone else? We need a Scottish Nationalist...
I will be wearing my red trainers especially for this event
By the way, our mini-PB event on Tuesday (see tyson's post below) should have tyson, fox, TSE, Tissue Price and me. I make that 2 Lab, 2 Con and an LD - 'tis a hung pub. Anyone else? We need a Scottish Nationalist...
I believe that shortly no political gathering will be lawful without the presence of a Scot Nat...
PS I hear Peter from Putney thought the Broxtowe meet was only for Labourites - not at all, the idea was that it'd be fun to have a cross-party meet so close to an electin in a marginal. I recommend coming a bit early and having a wander round to sniff the atmosphere (the Labour office is on City Road, the Tory club on Station Road, both nearby).
Miliband has to prove nothing other than Cameron can't command the House in a confidence vote.
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
How does Miliband prove it, without having a vote?
And Miliband becomes PM, until he loses a confidence vote, which might be the same day
Yes quite, the only thing to prove it is a vote.
And yes, Miliband (as a brief PM) could then go on to lose his own vote.
There might be a final attempt to put something together (e.g. grand coalition), else there's another election.
In those circumstances I would expect Miliband to resign (after 6 hours, or 2 days or whatever as PM), and Lizzie reappoint Cameron as "caretaker" for the inevitable second election. It would not seem "cricket" otherwise.
We're all agreed then: if Ed does become PM it will only be for a matter of days. Ed is absolutely going to smash George Canning's record of Britain's shortest serving PM (119 days)!
Earl of Bath, 48 hours, seven minutes and 11 seconds.
Shame some people don't even consider him to have been PM at all...
"... and a contemporary pamphlet satirically praised him for "the most wise and honest of all administrations, the minister having ... never transacted one rash thing; and, what is more marvellous, left as much money in the T[reasur]y as he found in it." "
By the way, our mini-PB event on Tuesday (see tyson's post below) should have tyson, fox, TSE, Tissue Price and me. I make that 2 Lab, 2 Con and an LD - 'tis a hung pub. Anyone else? We need a Scottish Nationalist...
I will be wearing my red trainers especially for this event
There was a rather odd program on BBC World News this morning. Some guy called Richard Bacon, who is quite the most useless reporter I've seen in some time, invited Nate Silver over to the UK to try to predict the election. Silver obviously knows his statistical stuff extremely well, but is an excruciatingly boring and featureless individual. Between the two of them the conversation hardly sparkled, bacon contributing nothing, but Silver had some interesting insights and observations.
Luckily it was only 30 minutes long, but unfortunately had no commercial breaks, unusual on a commercial network.
For some reason they traveled round the UK in possibly the only Airstream trailer without A/C, sitting chatting on the front couch while the trailer was towed by a BMW X6. It was almost bizarre.
I've backed draw at 16/1. Split decision at 5/1. And laid a five hundred quid against both fighters getting knocked down average 10/1. I'm already halfway drunk and may regret the latter but I'll be shocked if anyone gets knocked down here. Floyd has never been knocked down in his entire career. So this price in particular looks insanely short to me.
Draw and split decision on the cards should be good enough to setup an even more lucrative rematch. Controversy creates cash.
Mayweather is going to piss up as easily as Annie Power did at Punchestown today. I'm avoiding it as a betting event though, my boxing betting record is not good !
Miliband has to prove nothing other than Cameron can't command the House in a confidence vote.
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
How does Miliband prove it, without having a vote?
And Miliband becomes PM, until he loses a confidence vote, which might be the same day
Yes quite, the only thing to prove it is a vote.
And yes, Miliband (as a brief PM) could then go on to lose his own vote.
There might be a final attempt to put something together (e.g. grand coalition), else there's another election.
In those circumstances I would expect Miliband to resign (after 6 hours, or 2 days or whatever as PM), and Lizzie reappoint Cameron as "caretaker" for the inevitable second election. It would not seem "cricket" otherwise.
We're all agreed then: if Ed does become PM it will only be for a matter of days. Ed is absolutely going to smash George Canning's record of Britain's shortest serving PM (119 days)!
Not so sure. There is no obligation on the Tories to immediately vote down a Miliband government, tit-for-tat, within the initial 14 day period, and plunge the country back to the polls.
The question can be put at any time, and they would surely do better to allow the push-me/pull-you government to demonstrate its antics first.
Taking the mood on PB tonight as wisdom, 10/11 on eicipm from Hills looks like free money. Or have I simply tuned in on bad night?
Value but not free money
And I am mr EICIPM
Some advice please - I simply have to be in the best place for some.
I'm having some of this value (not free money).
How soon does Dave have to resign before a bookmaker would pay out my on EICIPM?
I'm guessing if it goes to the Queen's Speech and then Dave resigns, technically Ed is not next prime minister after the election (although in reality, of course, he is). What if it takes 2 week to get the bugger out? Is there a rule or does it depend on the bookmaker?
It's a good question - depends on the bookmaker.
I think Ladbrokes specifically state that the bet settles on who is PM on 1st June (?) - the other bookmakers are a little ambiguous. IMO, if there's no formal coalition, they'll wait until a queens speech vote before settling bets. But please don't take my word for it - check with your bookmaker of choice before betting.
I have my most recent bookie 6-4 Hills bets settling up at August 1st - so a touch of potential for double winner/fall through the middle with Betfair next PM. But I'm relaxed about it - an autumn Election will be after August 1st if Ed seeks a stronger mandate.
Many thanks Pong and Pulpstar for the advice.
Although I am very politically aware* I am a novice to betting on politics, so thank you for your help.
Regardless of my hefty bet (by my own standards/budget) I'm going to s***k my vote on the 66/1 Lib Dem candidate in my constituency, but my bet keeps election night very much alive.
Incidentally, in my constituency, 5 of the 15 council seats are held by a party that isn't standing in the General Election. Can anyone beat this?
* The members of this forum are atypical, before anyone calls me out on this assertion.
Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability 07 May 2015 General Election Nigel Farage Prime Minister After General Election 970 £0.10 £96.90
I'm gutted. Looks like I went over the top laying him at average odds of 997.66! Could have nabbed an extra 2p if I had waited.
Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability 07 May 2015 General Election Nigel Farage Prime Minister After General Election 970 £0.10 £96.90
I'm gutted. Looks like I went over the top laying him at average odds of 997.66! Could have nabbed an extra 2p if I had waited.
I've taken the remainder of the visible 970 cash there is still a pound there, albeit hidden. £1 @ 1000.0 on Theresa May - but she might actually be 1000 so I'm leaving it there.
There was a rather odd program on BBC World News this morning. Some guy called Richard Bacon, who is quite the most useless reporter I've seen in some time, invited Nate Silver over to the UK to try to predict the election. Silver obviously knows his statistical stuff extremely well, but is an excruciatingly boring and featureless individual. Between the two of them the conversation hardly sparkled, bacon contributing nothing, but Silver had some interesting insights and observations.
Luckily it was only 30 minutes long, but unfortunately had no commercial breaks, unusual on a commercial network.
For some reason they traveled round the UK in possibly the only Airstream trailer without A/C, sitting chatting on the front couch while the trailer was towed by a BMW X6. It was almost bizarre.
Silver said it was too close to call.
LOL....you had the misfortune to see Richard Bacon....a man who thinks he has the brain the size of a planet, when in fact it is rather more likely pea sized.
Miliband has to prove nothing other than Cameron can't command the House in a confidence vote.
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
How does Miliband prove it, without having a vote?
And Miliband becomes PM, until he loses a confidence vote, which might be the same day
Yes quite, the only thing to prove it is a vote.
And yes, Miliband (as a brief PM) could then go on to lose his own vote.
There might be a final attempt to put something together (e.g. grand coalition), else there's another election.
In those circumstances I would expect Miliband to resign (after 6 hours, or 2 days or whatever as PM), and Lizzie reappoint Cameron as "caretaker" for the inevitable second election. It would not seem "cricket" otherwise.
We're all agreed then: if Ed does become PM it will only be for a matter of days. Ed is absolutely going to smash George Canning's record of Britain's shortest serving PM (119 days)!
George Canning - a blast for the past.
"Compare the successes and failures of Castlereagh and Canning's Foreign Policies"
I remember the question, I know it got me an A at A Level, but I can't remember a single fact beyond that.
Tall limestone structure is intended to underline party leader’s commitment to keep Labour’s election pledges to voters
Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.
The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.
There was a rather odd program on BBC World News this morning. Some guy called Richard Bacon, who is quite the most useless reporter I've seen in some time, invited Nate Silver over to the UK to try to predict the election. Silver obviously knows his statistical stuff extremely well, but is an excruciatingly boring and featureless individual. Between the two of them the conversation hardly sparkled, bacon contributing nothing, but Silver had some interesting insights and observations.
Luckily it was only 30 minutes long, but unfortunately had no commercial breaks, unusual on a commercial network.
For some reason they traveled round the UK in possibly the only Airstream trailer without A/C, sitting chatting on the front couch while the trailer was towed by a BMW X6. It was almost bizarre.
Silver said it was too close to call.
LOL....you had the misfortune to see Richard Bacon....a man who thinks he has the brain the size of a planet, when in fact it is rather more likely pea sized.
It was on again this afternoon - this happens when you have 4 time zones to cover - and it is apparently a Panorama program: Panorama is now - a) only 30 minutes, and b) features duds like Richard Bacon? It has fallen a long way.
I have 2 comments about Richard -
The wheel is turning but the hamster is dead The lights are flashing, the barriers are down, but there is no sign of a train
Miliband has to prove nothing other than Cameron can't command the House in a confidence vote.
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
How does Miliband prove it, without having a vote?
And Miliband becomes PM, until he loses a confidence vote, which might be the same day
Yes quite, the only thing to prove it is a vote.
And yes, Miliband (as a brief PM) could then go on to lose his own vote.
There might be a final attempt to put something together (e.g. grand coalition), else there's another election.
In those circumstances I would expect Miliband to resign (after 6 hours, or 2 days or whatever as PM), and Lizzie reappoint Cameron as "caretaker" for the inevitable second election. It would not seem "cricket" otherwise.
We're all agreed then: if Ed does become PM it will only be for a matter of days. Ed is absolutely going to smash George Canning's record of Britain's shortest serving PM (119 days)!
George Canning - a blast for the past.
"Compare the successes and failures of Castlereagh and Canning's Foreign Policies"
I remember the question, I know it got me an A at A Level, but I can't remember a single fact beyond that.
I answered the same A level question (and with a similar result)
And like you I remember very little after all these years. I recall that they fought a duel though!
Tall limestone structure is intended to underline party leader’s commitment to keep Labour’s election pledges to voters
Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.
The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.
Miliband has to prove nothing other than Cameron can't command the House in a confidence vote.
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
How does Miliband prove it, without having a vote?
And Miliband becomes PM, until he loses a confidence vote, which might be the same day
Yes quite, the only thing to prove it is a vote.
And yes, Miliband (as a brief PM) could then go on to lose his own vote.
There might be a final attempt to put something together (e.g. grand coalition), else there's another election.
In those circumstances I would expect Miliband to resign (after 6 hours, or 2 days or whatever as PM), and Lizzie reappoint Cameron as "caretaker" for the inevitable second election. It would not seem "cricket" otherwise.
We're all agreed then: if Ed does become PM it will only be for a matter of days. Ed is absolutely going to smash George Canning's record of Britain's shortest serving PM (119 days)!
George Canning - a blast for the past.
"Compare the successes and failures of Castlereagh and Canning's Foreign Policies"
I remember the question, I know it got me an A at A Level, but I can't remember a single fact beyond that.
There was a rather odd program on BBC World News this morning. Some guy called Richard Bacon, who is quite the most useless reporter I've seen in some time, invited Nate Silver over to the UK to try to predict the election. Silver obviously knows his statistical stuff extremely well, but is an excruciatingly boring and featureless individual. Between the two of them the conversation hardly sparkled, bacon contributing nothing, but Silver had some interesting insights and observations.
Luckily it was only 30 minutes long, but unfortunately had no commercial breaks, unusual on a commercial network.
For some reason they traveled round the UK in possibly the only Airstream trailer without A/C, sitting chatting on the front couch while the trailer was towed by a BMW X6. It was almost bizarre.
Silver said it was too close to call.
LOL....you had the misfortune to see Richard Bacon....a man who thinks he has the brain the size of a planet, when in fact it is rather more likely pea sized.
There was an excellent website called simply "richardbaconisacunt" which was a neutral and impartial chronicle of his life and works. I've just had a quick look and unfortunately it seems to have vanished. Shame.
Tall limestone structure is intended to underline party leader’s commitment to keep Labour’s election pledges to voters
Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.
The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.
I do think they've vilified the man - he hasn't had a bad campaign. I was sympathetic to Cameron at the onset of his term in office but hell would have to freeze before I could support that warmonger again - he caused the Libyan mess (together with Sarkozy and Clinton) and would have gotten the UK engaged in a Syrian quagmire. Not that Miliband is that much better, he was all in on the Libyan disaster.
In Labour ranks there is a growing expectation that Miliband will carry on as leader even if he does not make it to Downing Street because he has done well during the campaign and Cameron’s position may be so precarious that a second election is likely.
“He [Miliband] will be desperate to stay — if he has got one more vote than Gordon [Brown] did in 2010 or anything he can claim as progress,” one shadow minister said.
There was a rather odd program on BBC World News this morning. Some guy called Richard Bacon, who is quite the most useless reporter I've seen in some time, invited Nate Silver over to the UK to try to predict the election. Silver obviously knows his statistical stuff extremely well, but is an excruciatingly boring and featureless individual. Between the two of them the conversation hardly sparkled, bacon contributing nothing, but Silver had some interesting insights and observations.
Luckily it was only 30 minutes long, but unfortunately had no commercial breaks, unusual on a commercial network.
For some reason they traveled round the UK in possibly the only Airstream trailer without A/C, sitting chatting on the front couch while the trailer was towed by a BMW X6. It was almost bizarre.
Silver said it was too close to call.
LOL....you had the misfortune to see Richard Bacon....a man who thinks he has the brain the size of a planet, when in fact it is rather more likely pea sized.
There was an excellent website called simply "richardbaconisacunt" which was a neutral and impartial chronicle of his life and works. I've just had a quick look and unfortunately it seems to have vanished. Shame.
A few of them were similarly suddenly unavailable when I was dating years ago....
Damian McBride also predicts Miliband to stay if Labour lose:
His personal ratings remain low but they are moving in the right direction and, crucially, among Labour voters on the doorstep he has started to become a net positive for the party, rather than the clear negative that he appeared last autumn.
There has been a corresponding shift among Labour MPs: those who were privately scathing now seem quietly surprised; those who were lukewarm towards Miliband are now notably supportive.
For those reasons, my prediction has entirely changed. I believe that even if the Tories emerge as the largest party next week and Cameron is able to form another government, Miliband is now likely to stay on as Labour leader with the support — or at least the quiet consent — of most of his MPs.
There will be some dissent at the margins, and ultra-ambitious leadership hopefuls such as Liz Kendall may not be able to resist the chance to strike, but she will get little support if she does.
In Labour ranks there is a growing expectation that Miliband will carry on as leader even if he does not make it to Downing Street because he has done well during the campaign and Cameron’s position may be so precarious that a second election is likely.
“He [Miliband] will be desperate to stay — if he has got one more vote than Gordon [Brown] did in 2010 or anything he can claim as progress,” one shadow minister said.
If he's not PM, he's most likely got less than 265 seats. SURELY he steps down in that circumstance.
Miliband has to prove nothing other than Cameron can't command the House in a confidence vote.
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
How does Miliband prove it, without having a vote?
And Miliband becomes PM, until he loses a confidence vote, which might be the same day
Yes quite, the only thing to prove it is a vote.
And yes, Miliband (as a brief PM) could then go on to lose his own vote.
There might be a final attempt to put something together (e.g. grand coalition), else there's another election.
In those circumstances I would expect Miliband to resign (after 6 hours, or 2 days or whatever as PM), and Lizzie reappoint Cameron as "caretaker" for the inevitable second election. It would not seem "cricket" otherwise.
We're all agreed then: if Ed does become PM it will only be for a matter of days. Ed is absolutely going to smash George Canning's record of Britain's shortest serving PM (119 days)!
George Canning - a blast for the past.
"Compare the successes and failures of Castlereagh and Canning's Foreign Policies"
I remember the question, I know it got me an A at A Level, but I can't remember a single fact beyond that.
I answered the same A level question (and with a similar result)
And like you I remember very little after all these years. I recall that they fought a duel though!
Perhaps duelling should make a comeback. Obviously Doug Alexander v. William Hague isn't going to happen. Perhaps a a thespian recreation would work. I nominate Sean "Richard Sharp" Bean as South Yorkshire heavyweight Willam Hague and Robert "Francis Begbie" Carlyle as wee Dougie. Both known to fight dirty.
Damian McBride also predicts Miliband to stay if Labour lose:
His personal ratings remain low but they are moving in the right direction and, crucially, among Labour voters on the doorstep he has started to become a net positive for the party, rather than the clear negative that he appeared last autumn.
There has been a corresponding shift among Labour MPs: those who were privately scathing now seem quietly surprised; those who were lukewarm towards Miliband are now notably supportive.
For those reasons, my prediction has entirely changed. I believe that even if the Tories emerge as the largest party next week and Cameron is able to form another government, Miliband is now likely to stay on as Labour leader with the support — or at least the quiet consent — of most of his MPs.
There will be some dissent at the margins, and ultra-ambitious leadership hopefuls such as Liz Kendall may not be able to resist the chance to strike, but she will get little support if she does.
Damian McBride also predicts Miliband to stay if Labour lose:
His personal ratings remain low but they are moving in the right direction and, crucially, among Labour voters on the doorstep he has started to become a net positive for the party, rather than the clear negative that he appeared last autumn.
There has been a corresponding shift among Labour MPs: those who were privately scathing now seem quietly surprised; those who were lukewarm towards Miliband are now notably supportive.
For those reasons, my prediction has entirely changed. I believe that even if the Tories emerge as the largest party next week and Cameron is able to form another government, Miliband is now likely to stay on as Labour leader with the support — or at least the quiet consent — of most of his MPs.
There will be some dissent at the margins, and ultra-ambitious leadership hopefuls such as Liz Kendall may not be able to resist the chance to strike, but she will get little support if she does.
Damian McBride also predicts Miliband to stay if Labour lose:
His personal ratings remain low but they are moving in the right direction and, crucially, among Labour voters on the doorstep he has started to become a net positive for the party, rather than the clear negative that he appeared last autumn.
There has been a corresponding shift among Labour MPs: those who were privately scathing now seem quietly surprised; those who were lukewarm towards Miliband are now notably supportive.
For those reasons, my prediction has entirely changed. I believe that even if the Tories emerge as the largest party next week and Cameron is able to form another government, Miliband is now likely to stay on as Labour leader with the support — or at least the quiet consent — of most of his MPs.
There will be some dissent at the margins, and ultra-ambitious leadership hopefuls such as Liz Kendall may not be able to resist the chance to strike, but she will get little support if she does.
In Labour ranks there is a growing expectation that Miliband will carry on as leader even if he does not make it to Downing Street because he has done well during the campaign and Cameron’s position may be so precarious that a second election is likely.
“He [Miliband] will be desperate to stay — if he has got one more vote than Gordon [Brown] did in 2010 or anything he can claim as progress,” one shadow minister said.
If he's not PM, he's most likely got less than 265 seats. SURELY he steps down in that circumstance.
And what happens then? Labour appoints a Scotsman, if they can find one on their benches?
Damian McBride also predicts Miliband to stay if Labour lose:
His personal ratings remain low but they are moving in the right direction and, crucially, among Labour voters on the doorstep he has started to become a net positive for the party, rather than the clear negative that he appeared last autumn.
There has been a corresponding shift among Labour MPs: those who were privately scathing now seem quietly surprised; those who were lukewarm towards Miliband are now notably supportive.
For those reasons, my prediction has entirely changed. I believe that even if the Tories emerge as the largest party next week and Cameron is able to form another government, Miliband is now likely to stay on as Labour leader with the support — or at least the quiet consent — of most of his MPs.
There will be some dissent at the margins, and ultra-ambitious leadership hopefuls such as Liz Kendall may not be able to resist the chance to strike, but she will get little support if she does.
Tall limestone structure is intended to underline party leader’s commitment to keep Labour’s election pledges to voters
Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.
The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.
In Labour ranks there is a growing expectation that Miliband will carry on as leader even if he does not make it to Downing Street because he has done well during the campaign and Cameron’s position may be so precarious that a second election is likely.
“He [Miliband] will be desperate to stay — if he has got one more vote than Gordon [Brown] did in 2010 or anything he can claim as progress,” one shadow minister said.
This is absolutely gob-smacking.
There surely has to be a reckoning for Scotland. The man has lost Holyrood 2011, had a disastrous Sindy and has certainly lost in Scotland again in 2015 (whatever happens in E&W).
And there is still Holyrood and Wales next year.
I mean, aren’t there going to be some very angry people North of the Border after the GE? Ed’s interventions haven’t exactly helped SLAB.
And aren’t there going to be some very worried Labour MPs West of Offa’s Dyke ?
I can hardly believe this. Ed has done better in the campaign than I thought at outset, but my expectations were extremely low.
A half-way decent Labour leader would have won this election easily.
The nightcap is dry, time for bed... but ... Over on UKPR a commentor reminds us of 2010. 'on this day'
'' "BBC projects CON 264 LAB 267 LD 90 Others 29” So 4 days out, and after the final weekend polls, the BBC got Lib Dems 32 seats too high, Labour within 10, but Cons 43 seats under. Ooer, as they say.''
Tall limestone structure is intended to underline party leader’s commitment to keep Labour’s election pledges to voters
Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.
The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.
It's perfect - he'll plant the limestone with his 6 pledges at no 10. Because of all the global warming, acid rain will make the stone unreadable fairly quickly.
'From where do Miliband and his team if advisers think his pathetic pledges being carved in stone will actually persuade more people to vote Labour?'
'The Labour leader’s pledges include commitments to deliver higher living standards for working families, a stronger NHS, controls on immigration and a country where the next generation can do better than the last.'
I thought it was a joke as the pledges are completely meaningless & cannot be measured.
A stronger NHS -- If there are an additional 50 nurses the NHS will be stronger and pledge met?
A country where the next generation can do better than the last -- this can be measured over a 4 / 5 year period.
Can PBers do me a favour, and dig out the links for some of the SNP candidates who have come out with, ahem, interesting comments.
I know one said something about No voters being Quislings and another wanted the economy to explode/crash as it would help Scottish independence.
Except they never said that.
The "Quislings" came from the Tweet danger of tweet-linking a story - in this case one from BBC Scotlandshire.
The "explode/crash" was a (reasonable) expectation not a hope or aspiration.
The precise Neil Hay tweet showed a link to a No event and stated prizewinners at this year's quisling awards. That sounds pretty much like he did say it to me.
FOOTBALL supporters have launched a campaign calling for Brendan O'Hara to stand down as the SNP's candidate for Argyll and Bute after using the word 'hun' about Rangers fans on a Celtic forum.
I guess he will get on well with Mhairi Black who tweeted that she f*** hates Celtic fans.
Many of the SNP prospective MPs are a timebomb waiting to explode but will be entertaining if nothing else. I have stated before I think Labour will save about 10MPs and nothing I have seen recently goes against this prediction. The SNP have really got the younger vote motivated but I am not sure they have convinced enough of the older voters.
I guess we should leave it to Neil Hay again who tweeted. told I was not fit to vote when umpteen poor souls in the elderly bracket can vote but don't know their own name. Insulting the old and mentally sick at the same time. Impressive.
Every post you make talks up Labour and makes less than sly put downs about the SNP. Are you John McTernan? IMHO the SNP will win around 50 seats in Scotland could be as many as 55. The Labour party will be able to split the expenses of a Taxi ride to Westminster. I am one of those older voters and I have already cast my postal vote for the SNP candidate in Larkhall and Hamilton.
Tall limestone structure is intended to underline party leader’s commitment to keep Labour’s election pledges to voters
Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.
The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.
It's perfect - he'll plant the limestone with his 6 pledges at no 10. Because of all the global warming, acid rain will make the stone unreadable fairly quickly.
It'll make a nice rockery one day after some aggressive redesigning with a hammer. Perhaps with a water feature and some shrubbery added.
"A half-way decent Labour leader would have won this election easily"
I understand where you are coming from but I think you are wrong.
Firstly, the scale of the defeat in 2010, with just 29% of the vote, was huge.
Secondly, the tories have dropped spectacularly lucky with a plausible "economic recovery" nd one of the predicted unemployment, strikes and riots.
Thirdly, the rise of the SNP cannot be laid entirely at his door. It's basically 'events'.
1979 (Winter of Discontent plus "Crisis? What Crisis?"), 1997 (economic f*ck up 1992 plus sleaze and party division) and 2010 economic f*ck up 2008 plus sleaze, albeit x-party, and party division) - Each time there was was a clear reason in the electorate's head for change. ZHC and bedroom tax aren't big enough.
Miliband has done a sterling job. After one term of a fairly united tory-led coalition and no memorable, attributable economic f*ck up, if he fails he deserves another go.
Add Tory Pelling to the Tory score in 2010 and this is about as safe as Battersea from the starting point. Tory hold.
Your premise is completely flawed. Pelling was sufficiently estranged from the Conservative Party by 2010 that his voters were, at best, equidistant between Conservative and Labour. If he had not stood, they would have split roughly equally between the other parties.
Add Tory Pelling to the Tory score in 2010 and this is about as safe as Battersea from the starting point. Tory hold.
Your premise is completely flawed. Pelling was sufficiently estranged from the Conservative Party by 2010 that his voters were, at best, equidistant between Conservative and Labour. If he had not stood, they would have split roughly equally between the other parties.
Locus poll of polls tonight (weighted average of 10 polls) is exactly tied at 33.3 - 33.3 = EICIPM. But I still don't believe it (and I'm not a Tory). The week after the last election 33% of voters said they were Labour, when in fact only 30% of them were, and it's hard to escape the feeling that little's changed. Plus the anecdotal evidence that Ukippers are switching to Tory, creates a picture very similar to 2010: Con 300 Lab 260. So who will win: Pollsters or PBers? Data or insight? I know who I've got my money on.
Tall limestone structure is intended to underline party leader’s commitment to keep Labour’s election pledges to voters
Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.
The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.
Tall limestone structure is intended to underline party leader’s commitment to keep Labour’s election pledges to voters
Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.
The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.
It's perfect - he'll plant the limestone with his 6 pledges at no 10. Because of all the global warming, acid rain will make the stone unreadable fairly quickly.
It'll make a nice rockery one day after some aggressive redesigning with a hammer. Perhaps with a water feature and some shrubbery added.
The thought did cross my mind that - assuming the text is still readable - judicious use of a chisel to delete certain individual letters might make parts of it sound rude.
"A half-way decent Labour leader would have won this election easily"
I understand where you are coming from but I think you are wrong.
Firstly, the scale of the defeat in 2010, with just 29% of the vote, was huge.
Secondly, the tories have dropped spectacularly lucky with a plausible "economic recovery" nd one of the predicted unemployment, strikes and riots.
Thirdly, the rise of the SNP cannot be laid entirely at his door. It's basically 'events'.
1979 (Winter of Discontent plus "Crisis? What Crisis?"), 1997 (economic f*ck up 1992 plus sleaze and party division) and 2010 economic f*ck up 2008 plus sleaze, albeit x-party, and party division) - Each time there was was a clear reason in the electorate's head for change. ZHC and bedroom tax aren't big enough.
Miliband has done a sterling job. After one term of a fairly united tory-led coalition and no memorable, attributable economic f*ck up, if he fails he deserves another go.
I think you're wrong. Ed is a pretty awful candidate for PM; Labour would be 2-3% ahead with an electable leader; and they should ditch Ed asap if Cameron remains PM. No room for sympathy.
Dredging my memory banks on Richard Bacon - but not enough to waste time googling it - was he not fired from some kids TV show for cocaine use years ago?
Dredging my memory banks on Richard Bacon - but not enough to waste time googling it - was he not fired from some kids TV show for cocaine use years ago?
Yes...on coke....he most recently had an afternoon radio show on BBC Radio 5, and it was (even by the BBC standards) more Guardian than the Guardian. It was basically Bacon talking a lot of bollocks about stuff he doesn't really understand, but thinks he is now an expert because he read about it in that mornings Guardian.
I had the misfortune of bumping into him in real life fairly recently and I can confirm he is just like on the telly / radio.
He recently left the BBC for LA, where he hopes to make to big in Tinseltown. Unfortunately, every show he has gone for has been canned before it got on air or he hasn't got the gig.
Damian McBride also predicts Miliband to stay if Labour lose:
His personal ratings remain low but they are moving in the right direction and, crucially, among Labour voters on the doorstep he has started to become a net positive for the party, rather than the clear negative that he appeared last autumn.
There has been a corresponding shift among Labour MPs: those who were privately scathing now seem quietly surprised; those who were lukewarm towards Miliband are now notably supportive.
For those reasons, my prediction has entirely changed. I believe that even if the Tories emerge as the largest party next week and Cameron is able to form another government, Miliband is now likely to stay on as Labour leader with the support — or at least the quiet consent — of most of his MPs.
There will be some dissent at the margins, and ultra-ambitious leadership hopefuls such as Liz Kendall may not be able to resist the chance to strike, but she will get little support if she does.
As far as I understand the system there is no onus on the PM to resign? Did Major have to go so suddenly in '97 or could he have waited for a confidence motion? Obviously that would have been silly in his case but we're dealing with technicalities here.
I think Disraeli in 1868 was the first PM to resign once the results were known, if the Opposition won a majority, a convention which has been adhered to ever since.
Looking at the Mayweather v Pacquiao, could they not put together a decent undercard? If you are paying $100+ for the PPV and I think you only get 3 fights televised and one of those is a world champ vs a guy who is ranked 100+ in his division, what an absolute piss take.
There was a rather odd program on BBC World News this morning. Some guy called Richard Bacon, who is quite the most useless reporter I've seen in some time
He is currently trying to make a career for himself on American telly. Sounds like you think he's a good fit.
"A half-way decent Labour leader would have won this election easily"
I understand where you are coming from but I think you are wrong.
Firstly, the scale of the defeat in 2010, with just 29% of the vote, was huge.
Secondly, the tories have dropped spectacularly lucky with a plausible "economic recovery" nd one of the predicted unemployment, strikes and riots.
Thirdly, the rise of the SNP cannot be laid entirely at his door. It's basically 'events'.
1979 (Winter of Discontent plus "Crisis? What Crisis?"), 1997 (economic f*ck up 1992 plus sleaze and party division) and 2010 economic f*ck up 2008 plus sleaze, albeit x-party, and party division) - Each time there was was a clear reason in the electorate's head for change. ZHC and bedroom tax aren't big enough.
Miliband has done a sterling job. After one term of a fairly united tory-led coalition and no memorable, attributable economic f*ck up, if he fails he deserves another go.
I think you're wrong. Ed is a pretty awful candidate for PM; Labour would be 2-3% ahead with an electable leader; and they should ditch Ed asap if Cameron remains PM. No room for sympathy.
Well I think you are wrong. We shall have to agree to disagree.
Perhaps we can agree on Richard Bacon. Can't stand him, myself, but my other half thinks he's wonderful. Bit of a crush really.
Perhaps, as I head to bed. I should pretend to be Richard Bacon. If I can get my hands on a copy of the Guardian and gram of coke I think I'm in.
Dredging my memory banks on Richard Bacon - but not enough to waste time googling it - was he not fired from some kids TV show for cocaine use years ago?
Yes...on coke....he most recently had an afternoon radio show on BBC Radio 5, and it was (even by the BBC standards) more Guardian than the Guardian. It was basically Bacon talking a lot of bollocks about stuff he doesn't really understand, but thinks he is now an expert because he read about it in that mornings Guardian.
I had the misfortune of bumping into him in real life fairly recently and I can confirm he is just like on the telly / radio.
Don't feel bad - I had the misfortune of being involved peripherally in a situation mainly inflated by Al Sharpton almost 30 years ago, and had the misfortune to meet him then.
On another level, if they took him back there's hope for Jeremy Clarkson. Last week the 3 presenters plus Andy Wilman met, allegedly 'secretly'. It was probably to discuss 'Clarkson, Hammond and May Live' events, shooting for which is already underway.
Couple this with the head of BBC2 saying that "Jeremy Clarkson will be back on the BBC. He has not been banned. His contract was merely not renewed".
I just have this feeling that after a suitable interval, commercial reality will prevail, some form of words will be found, and back they'll be.
Try watching the American Top Gear - made by BBC Worldwide - to see what the formula is like without Clarkson, Hamster, and the captain. It's awful. Ditto the Australian one.
Comments
What universe does he become PM in
Night all.
Who is the Conservative one ?
Dore seems a bit more Cleggy. But this is all highly anecdotal.
As Connery said in Dr No, 'That's a Smith & Wesson, and you've had your six.'
Then Cameron goes and Miliband is PM (whatever his own chances of getting a VoC through are.)
I'm having some of this value (not free money).
How soon does Dave have to resign before a bookmaker would pay out my on EICIPM?
I'm guessing if it goes to the Queen's Speech and then Dave resigns, technically Ed is not next prime minister after the election (although in reality, of course, he is). What if it takes 2 week to get the bugger out? Is there a rule or does it depend on the bookmaker?
And Miliband becomes PM, until he loses a confidence vote, which might be the same day
We have a vote and Cameron doesnt have a majority. Bye bye Dave.
FOOTBALL supporters have launched a campaign calling for Brendan O'Hara to stand down as the SNP's candidate for Argyll and Bute after using the word 'hun' about Rangers fans on a Celtic forum.
I guess he will get on well with Mhairi Black who tweeted that she f*** hates Celtic fans.
Many of the SNP prospective MPs are a timebomb waiting to explode but will be entertaining if nothing else. I have stated before I think Labour will save about 10MPs and nothing I have seen recently goes against this prediction. The SNP have really got the younger vote motivated but I am not sure they have convinced enough of the older voters.
I guess we should leave it to Neil Hay again who tweeted. told I was not fit to vote when umpteen poor souls in the elderly bracket can vote but don't know their own name. Insulting the old and mentally sick at the same time. Impressive.
And yes, Miliband (as a brief PM) could then go on to lose his own vote.
There might be a final attempt to put something together (e.g. grand coalition), else there's another election.
In those circumstances I would expect Miliband to resign (after 6 hours, or 2 days or whatever as PM), and Lizzie reappoint Cameron as "caretaker" for the inevitable second election. It would not seem "cricket" otherwise.
I think Ladbrokes specifically state that the bet settles on who is PM on 1st June (?) - the other bookmakers are a little ambiguous. IMO, if there's no formal coalition, they'll wait until a queens speech vote before settling bets. But please don't take my word for it - check with your bookmaker of choice before betting.
The only person I see with a majority to command if not Cameron is Sturgeon, and she is not even standing for Parliament.
Unless the Tories abstain.
If the SNP have 50 MPs - no way they are allowing another election.
I am grateful for every header-short or long, positive for the blues or written by OGH.
Its a great site and as long as it starts a discussion good on you you for writing it.
As others have said, we poll junkies presumably now have a 4-day cold turkey period. Doubtful that anything political will move between now and Wednesday, with half the country on holiday and the other half riveted by baby news.
I am away now, but I've asked Nick to clarify.
Anyway good night all for the last time and hope to see some of you there.
Rory v Paul Casey starts in about 10 minutes.
Ed Balls wrote £150 cheque to glazier for doing work on his £1million home
But his bank refused to honour it, sending cheque back to the tradesman
Mr Balls sent an apology and a second cheque but that was also refused
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3065618/Exposed-Ed-Balls-cheque-bouncer-wants-run-Britain-s-finances-just-six-months-ago-couldn-t-write-good-cheque-150-glazier-TWICE.html
Lets not forget this is the couple who were claiming totally the wrong amount for their mortgage on expenses too....At least I guess he didn't pay the workman cash in hand.
Political on a macro level. On a micro level Labour should be continuing its ground war against the Tories.
I've backed draw at 16/1. Split decision at 5/1. And laid a five hundred quid against both fighters getting knocked down average 10/1. I'm already halfway drunk and may regret the latter but I'll be shocked if anyone gets knocked down here. Floyd has never been knocked down in his entire career. So this price in particular looks insanely short to me.
Draw and split decision on the cards should be good enough to setup an even more lucrative rematch. Controversy creates cash.
Shame some people don't even consider him to have been PM at all...
Luckily it was only 30 minutes long, but unfortunately had no commercial breaks, unusual on a commercial network.
For some reason they traveled round the UK in possibly the only Airstream trailer without A/C, sitting chatting on the front couch while the trailer was towed by a BMW X6. It was almost bizarre.
Silver said it was too close to call.
The question can be put at any time, and they would surely do better to allow the push-me/pull-you government to demonstrate its antics first.
Although I am very politically aware* I am a novice to betting on politics, so thank you for your help.
Regardless of my hefty bet (by my own standards/budget) I'm going to s***k my vote on the 66/1 Lib Dem candidate in my constituency, but my bet keeps election night very much alive.
Incidentally, in my constituency, 5 of the 15 council seats are held by a party that isn't standing in the General Election. Can anyone beat this?
* The members of this forum are atypical, before anyone calls me out on this assertion.
"Compare the successes and failures of Castlereagh and Canning's Foreign Policies"
I remember the question, I know it got me an A at A Level, but I can't remember a single fact beyond that.
Ed Miliband to set his promises in stone
Tall limestone structure is intended to underline party leader’s commitment to keep Labour’s election pledges to voters
Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.
The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/03/ed-miliband-sets-promises-in-stone
I have 2 comments about Richard -
The wheel is turning but the hamster is dead
The lights are flashing, the barriers are down, but there is no sign of a train
And like you I remember very little after all these years. I recall that they fought a duel though!
Hopefully the Labour party is paying for it, not the taxpayer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_art_in_Liverpool#/media/File:Liverpool_Town_Hall_4.jpg
I've just had a quick look and unfortunately it seems to have vanished. Shame.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I48hr8HhDv0
Amusing video about Milifandom.
I do think they've vilified the man - he hasn't had a bad campaign. I was sympathetic to Cameron at the onset of his term in office but hell would have to freeze before I could support that warmonger again - he caused the Libyan mess (together with Sarkozy and Clinton) and would have gotten the UK engaged in a Syrian quagmire. Not that Miliband is that much better, he was all in on the Libyan disaster.
Will they also be providing nationally free boxes of tissues to dry up everyone's tears of laughter?
Kinnock upped Labour's score +3.2% in 1987 and stayed on.
That would imply a voteshare next week of 32.9% or higher for Ed to be safe.
That would imply a voteshare next week of 32.9% or higher for Ed to be safe.
I'd be amazed if he got 32.9% and didn't become PM !
I expect him to get slightly less than that.
That would imply a voteshare next week of 32.9% or higher for Ed to be safe.
33.0% on Yougov. Find me a stonemason.
And what happens then? Labour appoints a Scotsman, if they can find one on their benches?
In other words, Labour MPs have turned into Statler and Waldorf
S- he's terrible. He's useless. Get off! Boo!
W - he's not as bad as all that.
S - He does look like a TV star - Wallace. He's just merely bad.
W - I've seen worse.
S- Me too, he's actually not that bad at all
W- He doesn't look very handsome, with that white thing in his hair.
S- But he's better looking than Manny Shinwell and Gordon Brown.
W- He's better looking than a prime Minister. He can't be bad.
S- Actually I think he's pretty good.
W- Good? He's fantastic!
http://tinyurl.com/qj9r3o2
There surely has to be a reckoning for Scotland. The man has lost Holyrood 2011, had a disastrous Sindy and has certainly lost in Scotland again in 2015 (whatever happens in E&W).
And there is still Holyrood and Wales next year.
I mean, aren’t there going to be some very angry people North of the Border after the GE? Ed’s interventions haven’t exactly helped SLAB.
And aren’t there going to be some very worried Labour MPs West of Offa’s Dyke ?
I can hardly believe this. Ed has done better in the campaign than I thought at outset, but my expectations were extremely low.
A half-way decent Labour leader would have won this election easily.
Over on UKPR a commentor reminds us of 2010. 'on this day'
'' "BBC projects
CON 264 LAB 267 LD 90 Others 29”
So 4 days out, and after the final weekend polls, the BBC got Lib Dems 32 seats too high, Labour within 10, but Cons 43 seats under. Ooer, as they say.''
'From where do Miliband and his team if advisers think his pathetic pledges being carved in stone will actually persuade more people to vote Labour?'
'The Labour leader’s pledges include commitments to deliver higher living standards for working families, a stronger NHS, controls on immigration and a country where the next generation can do better than the last.'
I thought it was a joke as the pledges are completely meaningless & cannot be measured.
A stronger NHS -- If there are an additional 50 nurses the NHS will be stronger and pledge met?
A country where the next generation can do better than the last -- this can be measured over a 4 / 5 year period.
It's bullshit on stilts.
Perhaps with a water feature and some shrubbery added.
"A half-way decent Labour leader would have won this election easily"
I understand where you are coming from but I think you are wrong.
Firstly, the scale of the defeat in 2010, with just 29% of the vote, was huge.
Secondly, the tories have dropped spectacularly lucky with a plausible "economic recovery" nd one of the predicted unemployment, strikes and riots.
Thirdly, the rise of the SNP cannot be laid entirely at his door. It's basically 'events'.
1979 (Winter of Discontent plus "Crisis? What Crisis?"), 1997 (economic f*ck up 1992 plus sleaze and party division) and 2010 economic f*ck up 2008 plus sleaze, albeit x-party, and party division) - Each time there was was a clear reason in the electorate's head for change. ZHC and bedroom tax aren't big enough.
Miliband has done a sterling job. After one term of a fairly united tory-led coalition and no memorable, attributable economic f*ck up, if he fails he deserves another go.
I had the misfortune of bumping into him in real life fairly recently and I can confirm he is just like on the telly / radio.
He recently left the BBC for LA, where he hopes to make to big in Tinseltown. Unfortunately, every show he has gone for has been canned before it got on air or he hasn't got the gig.
The Times bigging up the Tories.If the votes are tied ,the Tories will not be on 290.They will be close to 260 and Miliband will be PM.
Perhaps we can agree on Richard Bacon. Can't stand him, myself, but my other half thinks he's wonderful. Bit of a crush really.
Perhaps, as I head to bed. I should pretend to be Richard Bacon. If I can get my hands on a copy of the Guardian and gram of coke I think I'm in.
Good night all.
On another level, if they took him back there's hope for Jeremy Clarkson. Last week the 3 presenters plus Andy Wilman met, allegedly 'secretly'. It was probably to discuss 'Clarkson, Hammond and May Live' events, shooting for which is already underway.
Couple this with the head of BBC2 saying that "Jeremy Clarkson will be back on the BBC. He has not been banned. His contract was merely not renewed".
I just have this feeling that after a suitable interval, commercial reality will prevail, some form of words will be found, and back they'll be.
Try watching the American Top Gear - made by BBC Worldwide - to see what the formula is like without Clarkson, Hamster, and the captain. It's awful. Ditto the Australian one.