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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend genera

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  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Survation. ‏@Survation 36s36 seconds ago
    HEADLINE VI Survation/MoS LAB 34%; CON 31%; UKIP 17%; LD 8%; SNP 5%; GRE 4%; OTH 1% Tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/mosfgep2128_020515.pdf

    UKIP rising........... again. :D
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    edited May 2015
    Ignore.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015
    mikehunt said:

    Interesting post here:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/legaladvice/comments/34m9yv/my_senile_grandpa_placed_a_30000_bet_is_there/

    Basically, his grandad placed £30k on the Tories to win the G.E.. Grandson now claiming the bet is void because senile.

    Go away troll.

    Edit: I wrote a post earlier about giving new posters the benefit of the doubt before calling them trolls. But you're 100% troll.

    Try harder next time :)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    RobD

    "Clearly an outlier.... :p"

    They didn't contact enough people
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    mikehunt said:

    Interesting post here:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/legaladvice/comments/34m9yv/my_senile_grandpa_placed_a_30000_bet_is_there/

    Basically, his grandad placed £30k on the Tories to win the G.E.. Grandson now claiming the bet is void because senile.

    Welcome, Mr Hunt. Your parents could have been kinder naming you.
  • JGCJGC Posts: 64

    Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.

    However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,

    "The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.

    This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”

    So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.

    Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?

    Labour Uncut is a completely unreliable source of information, one massive shoulder chip.

    However there is some evidence that the Labour party have been putting serious effort into Scotland. There were some figures out the other day breaking down the number of contacts made by the Labour party on a regional basis. Unsurprisingly in first place was London (nearly 600,000) closely followed by the North West. This makes perfect sense as this is where the largest number of members are. However Scotland came in third, which was surprising given both the political situation and also the much smaller membership base.

    I am not sure anyone really knows how this will all pan out, the national polls clearly show the SNP in the ascendency backed up by the Ashcroft polls, however there is a nagging doubt that things might not quite turn out this way. Dont forget all the predictions that the referendum was too close to call when in fact it was no such thing. So yes it is possible that Labour will do better in Scotland than conventional wisdom suggests (not that this makes any difference to the maths in the HoC though it might make a difference to the "narrative")

    As to the postal vote rumours, Andrea's post from earlier was instructive. It is also worth pointing out that postal voters tend to be older (yes I know not all) and older voters tend to be more tory inclined. Pub gossip, is just that, gossip. A few days ago there was a rumour that the tories believed they were loosing Battersea, perhaps they will, however the Ashcroft poll hardly found evidence of that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    It is the Tory vote that appears to be difference with all these pollsters. Labour is fairly solid 33-34...Tories is somewhere between 35 or 31 and that appears to be tied to UKIP vote share.

    I think this is the big unknown, pollsters have had UKIP as low as 7 and as high as (I think) 19.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Sehr feierlich und sehr langsam...
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Jack

    Another rubbish argument. Just because some over excited Tories expected a majority doesn't undermine my judgement.

    Oh and a Lab 3 point lead.... BOOM!
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    RobD said:

    DeClare said:


    The postal votes are opened every day and put into bundles (of 50 I think) they are counted face up and any candidate or party agent is allowed to go along and witness this, the same is done at the main count, it's called verification, so that they can check that the number of ballots received is the same as the total number of papers issued,
    They are not tallied at this stage however, they are put into sealed pouches and when the non postal votes have been verified the pouches of postal votes are then opened, added to the bundles of other votes and the process of tallying the numbers of votes cast for each candidate can begin.
    To answer the other point, I think that the Town Hall is erring on the side of caution and that votes received up to Thursday will still be counted.
    It used to be the case that if you had not posted your vote, then you could hand it in to any polling station in the constituency on polling day, I don't know if that's still true because they check the signatures very carefully nowadays to prevent possible fraud.

    They open the outer envelope, but not the inner one, surely?
    Yes, they do the full monty - in and out, you can see who voted for who. Although totally illegal the Labour chap next to me was discussing the outcome. With May day holidays, he claims more Tories have postal voted so it doesn't matter if they were further ahead than expected. I couldn't possibly comment.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Failure to explain £12 BN welfare cuts is a disaster for Dave IMO
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    IOS said:

    Jack

    Thats a nonsense argument. And whats more you know it. It comes down to whether you believe that parties know what is going on reasonably well. Fact is they do. You can see from where the Tories are spending their money they don't believe your projections.

    You started your prediction under the assumption the polls would move. They haven't. Why? Because the people of the UK today are not like the people of the UK you used to know.

    The country has changed. Unfortunately your perception hasn't.

    ARSE deniers like you were spewing the same guff in 2010 and yet ....

    :smile:

    Could you remind us of what came out of your eve of poll ARSE in 2010?
    The Sun ....

    What won it of course ....

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2015
    Survation Baxter'ed:

    Labour 312
    Tories 251
    Lib Dems 15
    UKIP 2
    SNP 47

    Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    So we're looking at a result anywhere from, say, a Lab +3 lead or a Con +3 lead. Those poor volunteers working so diligently, what has it all been for when we're exactly where we started, more or less?

    Only question now is if Ed can put together his government without having to field questions about 'legitimacy' about not having the most seats/votes.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    TheScreamingEagles

    Ah so SLAB are only 15-17 poer cent behind. Really what a triumph!

    There will be more proper Scottish polls starting with the Sunday Times tomorrow which will show that SLAB are being deservedly laced, good and proper.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033
    Danny565 said:

    Survation Baxter'ed:

    Labour 312
    Tories 251
    Lib Dems 15
    UKIP 2
    SNP 47

    Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.

    In all honesty, I'd prefer a lib lab coalition
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Failure to explain £12 BN welfare cuts is a disaster for Dave IMO

    I really doubt it. Neither side is explaining much of anything, I don't see why failure to answer on that point would worry people that much. It's more just that as it has been for months if not years, people do not find this government so competent or likable that they will reward the Tories, even if they are not exactly enthused by Labour either.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    scotslass said:

    TheScreamingEagles

    Ah so SLAB are only 15-17 poer cent behind. Really what a triumph!

    There will be more proper Scottish polls starting with the Sunday Times tomorrow which will show that SLAB are being deservedly laced, good and proper.

    Silly cybernat, you failed to understand the point I was making.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    SeanT

    Massive massive difference. Whereas the SNP are doing us in. They at least have the decency to win the seats themselves, rather than let the Tories in. I would rather we won them but in the race to get rid of Cam - it isn't overly important if its SNP or Lab.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    IOS said:

    Jack

    Thats a nonsense argument. And whats more you know it. It comes down to whether you believe that parties know what is going on reasonably well. Fact is they do. You can see from where the Tories are spending their money they don't believe your projections.

    You started your prediction under the assumption the polls would move. They haven't. Why? Because the people of the UK today are not like the people of the UK you used to know.

    The country has changed. Unfortunately your perception hasn't.

    ARSE deniers like you were spewing the same guff in 2010 and yet ....

    :smile:

    Could you remind us of what came out of your eve of poll ARSE in 2010?
    The Sun ....

    What won it of course ....

    Or perhaps it was a full moon?
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    scotslass said:

    TheScreamingEagles

    Ah so SLAB are only 15-17 poer cent behind. Really what a triumph!

    There will be more proper Scottish polls starting with the Sunday Times tomorrow which will show that SLAB are being deservedly laced, good and proper.

    I haven't heard of any more purely Scottish polls to come. What is your source?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Actually there is another question besides whether Lab have most votes/seats - If Cameron can get close to the 36 he got last time and still not be PM, he will in some ways be regarded as unlucky, as that would be an impressive hold of support, But if it is significantly lower than that, even if Labour has not massively improved their own position, his personal input into the failure will be easier to argue.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    IOS said:

    Jack

    Another rubbish argument. Just because some over excited Tories expected a majority doesn't undermine my judgement.

    IOS and judgement is a phrase of such spectacular jocularity I doubt my chuckle muscles will recover until Burnley win the Champions League.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    To trolls, yes.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Writing on the wall for the blues, methinks. Bad set of polls for them, these. No momentum from the scare tactics regarding the SNP, nor Dave's performance on the Beeb, and Mili's 'Overspend-gate' didn't happen.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm starting to feel a little foolish closing out my Lab Most Seats position for a loss.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Good polls today for LAB.

    Where is DH streaking.

    Get on LAB most seats now

    Price will fall was 5.1 now 4.9 YG EICIPM still to come
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    Disastrous Survation for Tories - might be worth getting on Lab seat majority fast
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Failure to explain £12 BN welfare cuts is a disaster for Dave IMO

    Laughable statement.

    A real disaster is Ed being so deluded he didn't think the previous government overspent.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Nigel

    Not making an impact on the polls is it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015

    Writing on the wall for the blues, methinks. Bad set of polls for them, these. No momentum from the scare tactics regarding the SNP, nor Dave's performance on the Beeb, and Mili's 'Overspend-gate' didn't happen.

    No more time to gather momentum either. Any good polls for the Tories now just add to the overall impression of it being very tight, rather than reinforcing a sense that things are moving in their direction. I think I'll move my personal prediction of a Cameron premiership down from 10-15% to 5% (being my entirely unscientific calculation of the chances of everything that is needed for a Tory win happening exactly as they need).
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    UKIP only 11% short of the Tories in that Survation ballot thing!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    kle4 said:

    Writing on the wall for the blues, methinks. Bad set of polls for them, these. No momentum from the scare tactics regarding the SNP, nor Dave's performance on the Beeb, and Mili's 'Overspend-gate' didn't happen.

    No more time to gather momentum either. Any good polls for the Tories now just add to the overall impression of it being very tight, rather than reinforcing a sense that things are moving in their direction. I think I'll move my personal prediction of a Cameron premiership down from 10-15% to 5%.
    Which may drive wavering kippers back into the fold.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    It would be nice if true. Not that i'm particularly excited about a Labour government but it would be nice if the bad guys lost for once and campaigns like Cameron's shouldn't be rewarded.
  • As someone said upthread odds of 10/3 for UKIP winning 15% - 20% looks good value IF you believe this poll.
    Personally I don't and expect UKIP to be nearer to 12% than 17%, i.e < than 14.5% of. the UK vote.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    JackW

    Is that all you have?

    We are 108 hours from polls opening and Labour are ahead! in the polls - when the Tories need to be many % points ahead to stop Ed from being PM.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The tories were on the front foot with some good 3 and 4 point leads in some polls up to the backstabbing lib dems and the cuts on the child benefits.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Survation given ballot poll EICIPM (majority)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 49s49 seconds ago
    Asked to cast their voting intention on a given ballot paper, the result yielded...
    LAB: 33%
    CON: 29%
    UKIP: 16%
    LDEM: 9%
    GRN: 6%
    (Survation)
  • jamesmaybejamesmaybe Posts: 3
    So is it common to place walk into betting shops with wheelbarrows full of cash?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    So when people get it the booth - they are breaking for Labour....

    Unlucky Tories - you may think Dave was an ok PM - but he is a dreadful party leader...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    I'm really confused by this, is the Ballot Paper Question 3 or Question 4?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Writing on the wall for the blues, methinks. Bad set of polls for them, these. No momentum from the scare tactics regarding the SNP, nor Dave's performance on the Beeb, and Mili's 'Overspend-gate' didn't happen.

    No more time to gather momentum either. Any good polls for the Tories now just add to the overall impression of it being very tight, rather than reinforcing a sense that things are moving in their direction. I think I'll move my personal prediction of a Cameron premiership down from 10-15% to 5%.
    Which may drive wavering kippers back into the fold.
    Would have happened already, surely? It's the narrative of being too close to call (in terms of who will win most seats) which is killing the Tories now - anyone even half paying attention knows there's very little between the big two and that the polls haven't been shifting. That results in Ed in No.10, and that sense must have bled through to more normal people to some degree.

    And yet still nothing changes. People may not particularly like what outcome we will get. Ed may quickly become very unpopular if he cannot deal with the challenges he will face. But people are also not changing their voting intention to make a different result likely.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Thank you for the great innings you have played Mr. Trott, time is up now I'm afraid.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Danny565 said:

    Survation Baxter'ed:

    Labour 312
    Tories 251
    Lib Dems 15
    UKIP 2
    SNP 47

    Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.

    Whatever my feelings about the Lib Dems that might be my preference as a result. I don't feel we'll get electoral reform though. Clegg has blown that with his stupid AV referendum and no-one seems to want to talk about it nowadays. However it would be a political masterstroke for Miliband newly installed as PM to pledge electoral reform to a voting system less favourable to his party. But would they back him on it?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    As someone said upthread odds of 10/3 for UKIP winning 15% - 20% looks good value IF you believe this poll.
    Personally I don't and expect UKIP to be nearer to 12% than 17%, i.e < than 14.5% of. the UK vote.

    UKIP will get 10-14% and 3 seats. That's long been my prediction and sticking with it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Failure to explain £12 BN welfare cuts is a disaster for Dave IMO

    Laughable statement.

    A real disaster is Ed being so deluded he didn't think the previous government overspent.
    Tories fallen back on all polls since.

    You are Dan Hodges and i claim my prize
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Survation given ballot poll EICIPM (majority)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 49s49 seconds ago
    Asked to cast their voting intention on a given ballot paper, the result yielded...
    LAB: 33%
    CON: 29%
    UKIP: 16%
    LDEM: 9%
    GRN: 6%
    (Survation)

    Keep calm !
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    So is it common to place walk into betting shops with wheelbarrows full of cash?

    It certainly isn't common place to walk out with them.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2015
    Also from Survation

    Imagine Boris was Tory leader:

    Miliband's Labour 34%
    Boris's Tories 32%
    Clegg's Lib Dems 8%
    Farage's UKIP 16%
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    thank goodness there's always yougov to cheer us blues up when the polls are revolting...

    oh,

  • jamesmaybejamesmaybe Posts: 3

    Thank you for the great innings you have played Mr. Trott, time is up now I'm afraid.

    What was his greatest innings?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    The Survation thing is a piece of silliness. The Tories aren't going to poll less than Gentleman John did in 1997. Obvious bunk. (Perhaps that curious gimmick of making the response form look like a ballot paper has some strange psychological effect.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    YouGov

    Con 34, Lab 33, Ukip 13, Libdem 8, Green 5, SNP 5, Others 2
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Thank you for the great innings you have played Mr. Trott, time is up now I'm afraid.

    Seconded. He has a wonderful career average and some truly fantastic innings to look back on with pride. A shame it will end with a poor series as his swansong.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    SeanT

    Royal Baby means the air war is dead until Tuesday morning. Luckily the Tories can rely on their awesome ground game until then.....
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    TheScreamingEagles

    So I am a "cybernat" because I point out that those who base on sub samples are clutching at straw polls when there are real polls available. If that is what "cybernat" means then OK. If it is meant to be a term of abuse then let me say that as someone relatively new to all this political stuff I find the unionists on this site condiderably more offensive than the SNP supporters.

    In any case I understand that there will indeed be a proper Scottish poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow and that it will confirm last week's poll and the end week polls and the massive Survation poll ie that the NATS are heading for around 50 seats.

    My source is the same as last week when I correctly indicated it a full four hours before it was released.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    thank goodness there's always yougov to cheer us blues up when the polls are revolting...

    oh,

    I've still got it!!!!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Survation
    UKIP and Labour have the highest proportion of 2010-DNV in their support.

    Con 13%, Lab 25%, LD 15%, UKIP 24%

    p.16, table 13
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    CON 1% ahead with YouGov

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    YouGov S Times poll
    Con 34
    Lab 33
    Ukip 13
    LD 8
    GN 5

    Lol
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    YouGov S Times poll
    Con 34
    Lab 33
    Ukip 13
    LD 8
    GN 5
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    IOS said:

    JackW

    Is that all you have?

    All I have is my genius and all you have is Ed ....
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    So is it common to place walk into betting shops with wheelbarrows full of cash?

    It is a lot more common than walking *out* of betting shops with wheelbarrows full of cash.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I stick by my earlier comment. No one knows anything.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    How many polls are there likely to be between now and Erection Day? I assume Wednesday will be last day to legally poll people AND publish data?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobC said:

    Disastrous Survation for Tories - might be worth getting on Lab seat majority fast

    Lab maj is ridiculously long at 100.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    We already know most of the Sunday polls already. Monday is a bank holiday and I suppose no polls. Tuesday and Wednesday are the two unknown desert days.

    Politicians will be crossing this desert with cries of vote me, vote for me, as true desert travellers once cried for water, water. For many Thursday will prove no oasis. The next four days will be very interesting, especially if there is a late UKIP surge, underlying results I've seen today.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Thank you for the great innings you have played Mr. Trott, time is up now I'm afraid.

    What was his greatest innings?
    168no that I watched in Melbourne in 2010 was pretty special as well as his 2nd innings ton at the oval in 2009.seems a long time ago now!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    Survation Baxter'ed:

    Labour 312
    Tories 251
    Lib Dems 15
    UKIP 2
    SNP 47

    Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.

    I am keeping calm ! But I feel Ed's outright rejection of the SNP was a blinder. Whatever happens, he has won the campaign. He has led from the front !

    I will not be in any coalition. Certainly not with Clegg but then he won't be there anyway.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Antifrank

    Except the political parties ... who know a hell of a lot.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Lol.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    YouGov

    Con 34, Lab 33, Ukip 13, Libdem 8, Green 5, SNP 5, Others 2

    Hold your horses my labour lefty friends ;-)

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Thank you for the great innings you have played Mr. Trott, time is up now I'm afraid.

    What was his greatest innings?
    Melbourne would be my pick, others mat disagree
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Kellner detects signs that the election may be drifting (albeit very slowly) away from Labour

    Great timing in that comment. Fortunately for Labour they can still take a slow drift away from them; if there had been a slow drift from the start of the campaign they would have been in trouble, but not now.

    I am baffled how Tory plurality seems to remain the most common prediction. For some, I can understand, but it's most of them it seems.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Another You Gov another with Dave gone....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Well, the Survation-induced excitement lasted a good 20 minutes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    scotslass said:

    TheScreamingEagles

    So I am a "cybernat" because I point out that those who base on sub samples are clutching at straw polls when there are real polls available. If that is what "cybernat" means then OK. If it is meant to be a term of abuse then let me say that as someone relatively new to all this political stuff I find the unionists on this site condiderably more offensive than the SNP supporters.

    In any case I understand that there will indeed be a proper Scottish poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow and that it will confirm last week's poll and the end week polls and the massive Survation poll ie that the NATS are heading for around 50 seats.

    My source is the same as last week when I correctly indicated it a full four hours before it was released.

    Again you miss the point.

    If only you were around when the Nats on here thought sub samples were the only thing talking about.

    PS - I have better sources than you.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    SeanT said:

    felix said:

    YouGov S Times poll
    Con 34
    Lab 33
    Ukip 13
    LD 8
    GN 5

    Lol

    It's not enough. The trend is now status quo, with a hint of Labour gaining.

    Six days out, it's not enough.

    UNLESS THE POLLS ARE ALL WRONG....
    Phone polls, man!

    Phone polls!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    IOS said:

    Antifrank

    Except the political parties ... who know a hell of a lot.

    Perhaps. They don't behave as though they do. They seem pretty clueless.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    So in tonight's polls conservatives ahead in two, behind in one and tied in the other but it's all over for them
  • CosmicCosmic Posts: 34
    YouGov - that's more like it.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited May 2015
    IOS said:

    So when people get it the booth - they are breaking for Labour....

    Unlucky Tories - you may think Dave was an ok PM - but he is a dreadful party leader...

    Friday was the crucial day. After Miliband got a kicking on the Beeb Thursday night and showed his delusion in revealing he doesn't think Labour overspent, that was the "bigoted woman" moment.

    The Tories needed to take to the airwaves and ram the message home that Labour haven't learnt their lessons and can't be trusted. Instead, there was nothing - just Cameron getting ruddy-faced at ASDA's HQ. The only soundbites the MSM took was some drivel about him not wanting a coalition but a full majority.

    Here's a message for you Dave (and Crosby and Shapps and the shocking Tory campaign): No one gives a shit what you want, they give a shit about what impacts on their own lives. Stop talking about coalitions and politics etc, and instead talk about the issues.

    The problem with CCHQ is it is run by a bunch of thick-as-pig-sh#t toffs with no life experience and who couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    SeanT said:

    felix said:

    YouGov S Times poll
    Con 34
    Lab 33
    Ukip 13
    LD 8
    GN 5

    Lol

    It's not enough. The trend is now status quo, with a hint of Labour gaining.

    Six days out, it's not enough.

    UNLESS THE POLLS ARE ALL WRONG....
    And if they are, it needs to be by quite a bit. Still possible, but an even tougher ask than just the polls simply being wrong.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Kelner is someone thats stands to lose a hell of a lot if Cam isn't back in as PM. He is on the anti Ed wing of the Labour party.

  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Oh well, ups and downs again. Impossible to know what is going on. The Battersea rumour that blues could lose was just hysterics. That's the problem with politics, too many emotion idiots involved. If that is lost then Ed gets 350 seats. not going to happen
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    edited May 2015
    Survation
    ONLINE poll alert!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The Survation thing is a piece of silliness. The Tories aren't going to poll less than Gentleman John did in 1997. Obvious bunk. (Perhaps that curious gimmick of making the response form look like a ballot paper has some strange psychological effect.)

    A bit like the debates, it does give minor parties a boost.

    Though a lot depends on where those kippers are. Inner city or saxon shore...

    Interesting to see the parties are neck and neck in the midlands.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    English batting = Sat night polling.

    English bowlers = Tories on thursday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    That should mean it has got the economy in good enough shape that it can be safely handed over to Labour - The Electorate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    IOS said:

    Kelner is someone thats stands to lose a hell of a lot if Cam isn't back in as PM. He is on the anti Ed wing of the Labour party.

    What exactly can he lose?
  • Danny565 said:

    Survation Baxter'ed:

    Labour 312
    Tories 251
    Lib Dems 15
    UKIP 2
    SNP 47

    Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.

    Mike Smithson last seen departing for year long world tour with Mrs. OGH on his GE profits. He's heard murmuring at the quayside "That'll teach you JackW, that'll teach you".
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    IOS said:

    So when people get it the booth - they are breaking for Labour....

    Unlucky Tories - you may think Dave was an ok PM - but he is a dreadful party leader...

    Friday was the crucial day. After Miliband got a kicking on the Beeb Thursday night and showed his delusion in revealing he doesn't think Labour overspent, that was the "bigoted woman" moment.

    The Tories needed to take to the airwaves and ram the message home that Labour haven't learnt their lessons and can't be trusted. Instead, there was nothing - just Cameron getting ruddy-faced at ASDA's HQ. The only soundbites the MSM took was some drivel about him not wanting a coalition but a full majority.

    Here's a message for you Dave (and Crosby and Shapps and the shocking Tory campaign): No one gives a shit what you want, they give a shit about what impacts on their own lives. Stop talking about coalitions and politics etc, and instead talk about the issues.

    The problem with CCHQ is it is run by a bunch of thick-as-pig-sh#t toffs with no life experience and who couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.
    I am amazed at how little it featured. I said then that if it gained traction then things could be looking up for the Tories, yet they ignored it...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    Ooh England are collapsing. 18/3

    If Root goes early they may as well concede.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Kelner Tory Plurality.

    Always seems to be a week behind to me.

    His 14/5/15 Prediction could be spot on IMO
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    So in tonight's polls conservatives ahead in two, behind in one and tied in the other but it's all over for them

    Yes. Because they need to be clearly ahead in almost all of them to have even a chance of forming the next government, unless the polls showing tied or Lab leads are just plain wrong.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    RobD

    His reputation. Also his politics being lived out. He is a hardcore Blairite. If Ed gets in - it totally undermines the Hodges wing of the party... not that there are many left other than the ultras anyway.
This discussion has been closed.