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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend genera
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend general election polls
After a CON lead of 1% last week tonight's Opinium/Observer poll has
CON 35
LAB 34
LD 8
UKIP 13
GTN 5
0
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Cooper: Pudsey
Maria Eagle: Bolton West
Reeves: Halifax
Balls: Norwich South
Burnham: Swindon South, Bristol West, Kingswood, Stroud,
Gordon Brown: East Renfrewshire
Owen Smith: Glamorgan
Flint: Lincoln
Ivan Lewis: Weaver Vale
Trickett: Dewsbury
Berger: Wirral West
Lammy: Croydon Central
Nottingham South MP: Sherwood
Kate Green (Stretford & Urmston): Carlisle
Sharon Hodgson (Sunderland and Washington somecompasspoint, IIRC, West): Stockton South
Neath AM: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff South AM: Glamorgan
General Secretary: Bedford, Cambridge
Because they are going to be hammered by SNP, lab and tories?
Must be a happy coincidence for him.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683
Anecdote alert... heard that vale of Glamorgan looking interesting for labour. Tories have given up on Cardiff North.
I'm maxed out.
It does smack of reverse psychology though :-)
SeanT: Because 1. I don't understand spread betting, and 2. in the time it would take me to master it, I could probably earn £1000 from writing, which I doubt I would win from the bookies.
It's really not that complicated. In this instance, you would SELL the Tories at 288 seats for say £20 per seat. You would then make a profit of £20 for every seat they won short of 288 seats and you'd lose £20 for every seat they won over and above 288 seats, not too difficult a concept to grasp is it really? On your latest assessment of them winning around 273 seats, a bet such as this would earn you circa £300 (i.e. £20 x 288 - 273). Some way below your £1,000 for doing a little writing, but not that taxing surely. The boring bit is spending all of 5 minutes online, opening your account.
Are you attending the PB.com all-nighter in the Earls Court hostelry btw?
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell·4 secs5 seconds ago
@MSmithsonPB really is the one man content provider when it comes to polling. The must-follow for this election ....
@SunPolitics it would be quite surprising if your own poll wasn't EXCLUSIVE!! Lol
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/594560387707772928
Of course it could be that the requirement to register in person for postal voting has triply-decimated Labour's creativity in that department.
Siôn Simon@sionsimon·2 hrs2 hours ago
Last weekend before the election? Must be Hodge Hill rally time pic.twitter.com/q5P17oaGXL
Nick Cohen@NickCohen4·26 mins26 minutes ago
Nick Cohen retweeted Siôn Simon
Labour candidate addresses sex segregated audience without seeming to know or care
Tom is there too....
https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040
EICIPM
Equality in action...but hey ho gotta win those votes. What want the audience would make of Mr Harriet Harman internet viewing habits if they knew?
@Peter_From_Putney Heading to the Finborough for election... - would be good to see you in your frock
@TSEofPB ComRes is 33-33 apparently.
That article should strike fear into the heart of every labour backer, tipster, or pollster calling the election for them. It is further evidence the labour vote score is nowhere near the labour poll score in England. Not even close. Not even close to close.
6/4 on Croydon Central? how about boll*cks.
BTW Scotland is NOT using the individual registration for this election, it is using the previous household register.
Coming up at 7.30pm - although some have broken the embargo already, is the ComRes phone poll for the IoS/S Mirror.
(Boycott complaining about English bowling with the West Indies 107-6!)
At least if they fail as a group, its harder for those fools paying them money for results to weed out the bad guys.
The last 10 opinion polls. Only one of them (Mori) would see Cameron have a chance of forming a govt.
LAB most seats now 5.1
I await the huge outrage on twitter to his photo of this Hodge Hill political rally...every day sexism and all that.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/neighbours.jpg
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/594441622814924801
Labour are good at the three aitches ... hyperbole, hypocrisy, and in picking Ed, hidiocy.
I'm not saying all is rosy for the Tories nationwide, but I've literally never seen such negative reactions in the South to Liberals/Labour. I am too young to remember what happens when the left goes all class envy/higher taxes etc, but presumably this was what 83-92 was like.....
It is the first time anything has been hand delivered by SLAB. It also got my area wrong, saying Kinning Park instead of Ibrox.
The 1992 polls were about 8% wrong- Labour was about 1% ahead, the Tories won by 7%. The 2001 polls were nearly as bad averaging a 16% Labour lead, when actually it was about 9%. The 2005 polls overestimated the Labour lead by 3% too. The 2010 polls overestimated the LD's by 3-4%.
All the contra indications seem to appear that this years polling will likely be wrong en masse to at least the same extent since the variables are more complex.
Engrossing days cricket by the way.
**** Opens bag of popcorn *****