Sun's front page tomorrow with the new Royal Princess - see inside pages 2,3,4.5,6,7,8 & 9 + souvenir edition - GE campaign cancelled till Tuesday probaby
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)
It was Thursday when the Tories lost. Ed's TOTAL REJECTION of the SNP wot won it !
I wonder if that is the case. If it is, it means Miliband won on a TOTAL LIE, and he will suffer for it, in time.
It maybe the case but if Labour wins 300 or so seats the SNP question will be short-circuited out...
300 seats looking possible if not probable at the moment...
But given Scotland, that would mean Labour making 92 gains from Con and Lib Dems.
OK - I know I'm being optimistic but here's as assessment on how Labour can get to 300...
losses to SNP ~ 30 gains from LD ~ 10 gains from Tories ~60
Very optimistic but it's possible if Labour have a good night.
Equally probable as Jack W's assessment in my opinion.
Be like me, be pessimistic on our side's performance, so if they do badly, it won't be a surprise, and if they do brilliantly, then you'll love it even more.
All the stuff I am getting back from canvassers agrees with Jack. But then we are mining the same data and if it bollocks then we blues are stuffed.
Stop panicking, the only bigger joke than these polls that are all over place are the idiots on here who take them as gospel if they suit their narrative.
Sun's front page tomorrow with the new Royal Princess - see inside pages 2,3,4.5,6,7,8 & 9 + souvenir edition - GE campaign cancelled till Tuesday probaby
So make that 2 days campaigning left for the Tories to salvage something.
And, if you watched today's test, you would fall in love with cricket. It has been absolutely gripping. Even a cricket cynic like yourself would have switched
Nonsense on here about postal votes as it is only the outer envelope that is opened prior to election day so the political choice of the voter remains secret . A Labour majority is now closer tonight after the most recent polls.
It is like looking at nipples through a see through bra. The bra is meant to stop you seeing, but you can see and it's great. Postal votes should not be counted until election day as the results are plain for all to see.
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)
It was Thursday when the Tories lost. Ed's TOTAL REJECTION of the SNP wot won it !
I wonder if that is the case. If it is, it means Miliband won on a TOTAL LIE, and he will suffer for it, in time.
It maybe the case but if Labour wins 300 or so seats the SNP question will be short-circuited out...
300 seats looking possible if not probable at the moment...
But given Scotland, that would mean Labour making 92 gains from Con and Lib Dems.
OK - I know I'm being optimistic but here's as assessment on how Labour can get to 300...
losses to SNP ~ 30 gains from LD ~ 10 gains from Tories ~60
Very optimistic but it's possible if Labour have a good night.
Equally probable as Jack W's assessment in my opinion.
Be like me, be pessimistic on our side's performance, so if they do badly, it won't be a surprise, and if they do brilliantly, then you'll love it even more.
OK - I'll use Jack's prediction as the baseline. Surely Labour can't do worse that that?
Sun's front page tomorrow with the new Royal Princess - see inside pages 2,3,4.5,6,7,8 & 9 + souvenir edition - GE campaign cancelled till Tuesday probaby
So make that 2 days campaigning left for the Tories to salvage something.
Well that's a view but maybe 2 days for labour to salvage their campaign - it is not over yet
So in conclusion tonight, mixed news but marginally in favour for Labour, royal baby cuts GE campaign short, hints that UKIP might be recovering a bit, no sign of Cameron remaining in No.10 for long.
I'm coming to the conclusion that Scotland isn't going to be as bad as expected for Labour and laying the 5 and under position on Betfair. The swings required are just massive. I'm hearing a little bit of swing back towards labour
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)
It was Thursday when the Tories lost. Ed's TOTAL REJECTION of the SNP wot won it !
I wonder if that is the case. If it is, it means Miliband won on a TOTAL LIE, and he will suffer for it, in time.
It maybe the case but if Labour wins 300 or so seats the SNP question will be short-circuited out...
300 seats looking possible if not probable at the moment...
But given Scotland, that would mean Labour making 92 gains from Con and Lib Dems.
OK - I know I'm being optimistic but here's as assessment on how Labour can get to 300...
losses to SNP ~ 30 gains from LD ~ 10 gains from Tories ~60
Very optimistic but it's possible if Labour have a good night.
Equally probable as Jack W's assessment in my opinion.
Be like me, be pessimistic on our side's performance, so if they do badly, it won't be a surprise, and if they do brilliantly, then you'll love it even more.
OK - I'll use Jack's prediction as the baseline. Surely Labour can't do worse that that?
I think Jack is being a bit pessimistic on Labour's figures.
For what it is worth, I'm fully expecting Ed Miliband to be our PM within the next month or so.
Should try being a Lab supporter on this site. Soemtimes you would think you were the only person in the country that voted for them...
Really? Plenty of Lab posters on here.
Apparently it leans Tory heavy, though it may seem otherwise as some Tory pessimists might be mistaken for Labour at first glance. And there are secret Tories everywhere, I am told.
I'm coming to the conclusion that Scotland isn't going to be as bad as expected for Labour and laying the 5 and under position on Betfair. The swings required are just massive. I'm hearing a little bit of swing back towards labour
Given there are polls that if they occurred would give the SNP a clean sweep of all 59 seats, it seems possible things might not be quite that bad at least. It doesn't have to improve by much for them to do better than expected, so it seems reasonable to prepare for something in the range of 6-10 holds (No, SNP, I am not saying that will happen, it is a possibility being floated)
Sun's front page tomorrow with the new Royal Princess - see inside pages 2,3,4.5,6,7,8 & 9 + souvenir edition - GE campaign cancelled till Tuesday probaby
So make that 2 days campaigning left for the Tories to salvage something.
Well that's a view but maybe 2 days for labour to salvage their campaign - it is not over yet
and this is why you must lay Boris Johnson over the summer in the tory leadership election.
You can't aspire to be PM and use words like that.
In fairness to Boris, he knows he probably has little appeal to lose north of the border. If he's ever PM, it will likely be of an independent England.
and this is why you must lay Boris Johnson over the summer in the tory leadership election.
You can't aspire to be PM and use words like that.
It's a corker of an interview, it is why he might win the Tory leadership election.
Can't stand the man but in some ways I hope he is the next Tory leader. I don't think the Tories would win under him as he's too polarising a figure. But on reflection I wouldn't want to risk it. He'd be a disaster as PM.
I'm bemused by some reactions on here. The polls are tied. Labour will have to rely on the SNP. The Tories will not have enough seats. Neither scenario is cause for celebration,.
An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows The SNP is heading for a landslide victory on Thursday with Nicola Sturgeon’s popularity growing by the day, as the party seeks to form a Westminster alliance with left-wing Labour MPs.
A YouGov survey of 1,162 voters in Scotland puts the SNP on 49%, Labour on 26%, the Conservatives on 15% and Lib Dems on 7%, with Ukip on 2% and the Greens on 1%.
Assuming a uniform swing it would mean the nationalists winning 54 seats (+48 from 2010), Labour holding just four (-37), Lib Dems 1 (-10) and the Tories losing their only MP, Scotland Office minister David Mundell.
This is how the Sunday Times is reporting the Scottish poll. Not quite the seat projection suggested by PBers. I don't see Murphy holding given his dramatic personal unpopularity.
The Libs are all gone deservedly so apart from Carmichael who survives with no credit - Moore was a far better representative. The rest of the unionist rump should go and go now for any good that they have been doing.
All the stuff I am getting back from canvassers agrees with Jack. But then we are mining the same data and if it bollocks then we blues are stuffed.
Stop panicking, the only bigger joke than these polls that are all over place are the idiots on here who take them as gospel if they suit their narrative.
I hope he does it for the comedy value alone (not that I think he will get the chance).
"The people have spoken, and they have spoken...let's say it was clearly, that they want Conservatives at the heart of the next government. Let's not worry about who can cobble together what numbers in the commons, that's just maths, what is important is the people want a Cameron led government. Right? Boris, Theresa, back me up here. Guys? Where'd everybody go?"
I'm coming to the conclusion that Scotland isn't going to be as bad as expected for Labour
From an SNP point of view, word of a walkover got out too early - given people enough time to think, "hmm, not sure about this".
I am fairly certain all that talk of total wipe out is utter nonsense. SNP clearly going to batter Labour, but wouldn't be surprised if it isn't as quite as bad as polled.
Should try being a Lab supporter on this site. Soemtimes you would think you were the only person in the country that voted for them...
Really? Plenty of Lab posters on here.
Apparently it leans Tory heavy, though it may seem otherwise as some Tory pessimists might be mistaken for Labour at first glance. And there are secret Tories everywhere, I am told.
I'm coming to the conclusion that Scotland isn't going to be as bad as expected for Labour and laying the 5 and under position on Betfair. The swings required are just massive. I'm hearing a little bit of swing back towards labour
Given there are polls that if they occurred would give the SNP a clean sweep of all 59 seats, it seems possible things might not be quite that bad at least. It doesn't have to improve by much for them to do better than expected, so it seems reasonable to prepare for something in the range of 6-10 holds (No, SNP, I am not saying that will happen, it is a possibility being floated)
I have SLab 0-20 covered for profit for whilst I got on 0-5 at a nice price I am not a moron.
I'm bemused by some reactions on here. The polls are tied. Labour will have to rely on the SNP. The Tories will not have enough seats. Neither scenario is cause for celebration,.
Some people, though not myself, like the idea of Labour having to rely on the SNP, and not all of them are Scottish nationalists.
As for neither scenario being cause for celebration, it has been clear for a while that it was unlikely to be an election which resulted in a stable government (even narrow majorities are problematic in their own way), so whatever happens I think most people are prepared for chaos to follow, and not much point worrying about it overmuch.
and this is why you must lay Boris Johnson over the summer in the tory leadership election.
You can't aspire to be PM and use words like that.
In fairness to Boris, he knows he probably has little appeal to lose north of the border. If he's ever PM, it will likely be of an independent England.
Its broadly true. How the nation copes with the SNP trying to destroy the country is a problem. Boris has highlighted the problem.
Failure to explain £12 BN welfare cuts is a disaster for Dave IMO
Laughable statement.
A real disaster is Ed being so deluded he didn't think the previous government overspent.
Labour didn't overspend. Deficit was lower than Germany, France....
Provided of course you don't count the PFI commitments - that are strangling the NHS.
Labour may have overspent, but it was difficult for Dave to push this line given he has vastly increased spending since taking power and just about doubled the national debt.
I think both parties realised this wasn't a good topic for them and pretty much avoided it.
Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down
Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.
Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"
Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”
Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a majority, minority or another coalition with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"
Sounds right.
That's the speech every politician has already written: the one where democratic legitimacy is threatened by a dark, malovent force that the people must prevent.
All the stuff I am getting back from canvassers agrees with Jack. But then we are mining the same data and if it bollocks then we blues are stuffed.
Stop panicking, the only bigger joke than these polls that are all over place are the idiots on here who take them as gospel if they suit their narrative.
Tory minority still the best bet.
I'm not panicking, I'm swimming in my own ignorance thank you very much.
There is no uniform swing in Scotland, the SNP does better in traditional Labour areas. The SNP will take 58 Scottish seats and leave the LibDems reigning in Orkney and Shetland. Scottish voters are generally not inclined to tactical voting - Tory voters won't come to the rescue of Murphy in large enough numbers. The SNP would have lost Berwickshire if it wasn't a 3-way race.
I'm bemused by some reactions on here. The polls are tied. Labour will have to rely on the SNP. The Tories will not have enough seats. Neither scenario is cause for celebration,.
Some people, though not myself, like the idea of Labour having to rely on the SNP, and not all of them are Scottish nationalists.
As for neither scenario being cause for celebration, it has been clear for a while that it was unlikely to be an election which resulted in a stable government (even narrow majorities are problematic in their own way), so whatever happens I think most people are prepared for chaos to follow, and not much point worrying about it overmuch.
People may be prepared for chaos but the markets will re-act very negatively damaging investment, jobs and the economy.
All the stuff I am getting back from canvassers agrees with Jack. But then we are mining the same data and if it bollocks then we blues are stuffed.
Stop panicking, the only bigger joke than these polls that are all over place are the idiots on here who take them as gospel if they suit their narrative.
I got around to watching Thursday's QT tonight in the hope that it might help me make up my mind which way to vote. It didn't really advance things much for me at all. I still don't know where I'll be marking my cross on the GE ballot paper.
Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down
Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.
Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"
Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”
Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a majority, minority or another coalition with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"
"The public won't put up with...", sounds dangerously close to encouraging civil disobedience. The public have their say on Thursday, after that it'll come down to the arithmetic.
A legitimacy argument is doomed to failover if you can't command a majority on the floor of the house you can't govern. The numbers are inexorable.
Would he really risk the humiliation of clinging on and being turfed out ? Surely he'd walk with his head held high.
Failure to explain £12 BN welfare cuts is a disaster for Dave IMO
Laughable statement.
A real disaster is Ed being so deluded he didn't think the previous government overspent.
Labour didn't overspend. Deficit was lower than Germany, France....
Of course Labour overspent. They increased spending by 50% in real terms between 2000 and 2010. A massive increase never seen before in peacetime. During this period when we had growth they ran deficits, they should have been paying down debt not increasing it.
I got around to watching Thursday's QT tonight in the hope that it might help me make up my mind which way to vote. It didn't really advance things much for me at all. I still don't know where I'll be marking my cross on the GE ballot paper.
Well, I'd avoid those Greens, they sound dangerous.
Too many players aren't good enough at the moment. This team is about 2 years out from being ready for an Ashes. Unfortunately for them, they've an Ashes in two months.
and this is why you must lay Boris Johnson over the summer in the tory leadership election.
You can't aspire to be PM and use words like that.
In fairness to Boris, he knows he probably has little appeal to lose north of the border. If he's ever PM, it will likely be of an independent England.
He does well with Con voters but he is horrendously unpopular on the doorstep with non-Con voters. Ask anyone who was with him at Eastleigh. As for the North. He is even less popular than DC. He would not bring more voters to the party and that is what will be looking for.
Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
and this is why you must lay Boris Johnson over the summer in the tory leadership election.
You can't aspire to be PM and use words like that.
In fairness to Boris, he knows he probably has little appeal to lose north of the border. If he's ever PM, it will likely be of an independent England.
He does well with Con voters but he is horrendously unpopular on the doorstep with non-Con voters. Ask anyone who was with him at Eastleigh. As for the North. He is even less popular than DC. He would not bring more voters to the party and that is what will be looking for.
Except when the pollster ask if the Tories were led by Boris rather than Cameron, how would you vote, and the Tories get several % bump. Enough of a bump to actually win.
Boris: "People are looking at Miliband...getting bad visuals of him popping out of Alex Salmond’s sporran like a baffled baby kangaroo."
Boris: "Nobody thinks this is going to be some tartan tyranny with everybody forced to wear kilts. But it would be a chaotic and tense".
I thought the Tories wanted a United Kingdom.
Boris is criticizing the SNP not the people of Scotland. (Though I accept that from a Labour position it must be hard to tell the difference these days.)
Comments
PB Tories rule!
You can't aspire to be PM and use words like that.
That is the year 2020, not 20 past 8. (bad joke time)
Here is something to throw into you votingreform thread, Quadratic Voting
http://ericposner.com/quadratic-voting/
Tory minority still the best bet.
Should try being a Lab supporter on this site. Soemtimes you would think you were the only person in the country that voted for them...
And, if you watched today's test, you would fall in love with cricket. It has been absolutely gripping. Even a cricket cynic like yourself would have switched
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
Boris: "Nobody thinks this is going to be some tartan tyranny with everybody forced to wear kilts. But it would be a chaotic and tense".
Boris on Mili's view of capitalism: “He regards it as something like sewage or an unpleasant bodily function that has got to be managed"
Boris on Mili: "He’s had a total meltdown in Scotland. He’s responded like the one-legged millipede that goes left, left, left.”
Can't wait till he is Tory leader. Ed will monster him.
Goodnight.
You can't believe I meant that literally.
Edit: 4.5 now 22:10
For what it is worth, I'm fully expecting Ed Miliband to be our PM within the next month or so.
Boris on Clegg: "I have feelings of ordinary human compassion just as I might feel a twinge if I accidentally trod on a wasp or a slug."
He would have been ripped to part if he was leader of the tories for those comments.
The only question is what Ed will have to work with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M
Wow, I never knew so many Yougovers were in favour of a United Ireland.
They will have to pry the keys from his cold dead hand.
A YouGov survey of 1,162 voters in Scotland puts the SNP on 49%, Labour on 26%, the Conservatives on 15% and Lib Dems on 7%, with Ukip on 2% and the Greens on 1%.
Assuming a uniform swing it would mean the nationalists winning 54 seats (+48 from 2010), Labour holding just four (-37), Lib Dems 1 (-10) and the Tories losing their only MP, Scotland Office minister David Mundell.
This is how the Sunday Times is reporting the Scottish poll. Not quite the seat projection suggested by PBers. I don't see Murphy holding given his dramatic personal unpopularity.
The Libs are all gone deservedly so apart from Carmichael who survives with no credit - Moore was a far better representative. The rest of the unionist rump should go and go now for any good that they have been doing.
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=115878540&ex=1&origin=MRL
"The people have spoken, and they have spoken...let's say it was clearly, that they want Conservatives at the heart of the next government. Let's not worry about who can cobble together what numbers in the commons, that's just maths, what is important is the people want a Cameron led government. Right? Boris, Theresa, back me up here. Guys? Where'd everybody go?"
I know one said something about No voters being Quislings and another wanted the economy to explode/crash as it would help Scottish independence.
We already know cammo wants out.
As for neither scenario being cause for celebration, it has been clear for a while that it was unlikely to be an election which resulted in a stable government (even narrow majorities are problematic in their own way), so whatever happens I think most people are prepared for chaos to follow, and not much point worrying about it overmuch.
Not as a "one term" PM though?
Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down
Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.
Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"
Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”
Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a majority, minority or another coalition with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"
I think both parties realised this wasn't a good topic for them and pretty much avoided it.
EICIPM in all of them.
And I think Opinium will also be doing an eve of poll.
The Guardian ICM poll will be out Wednesday.
Lord Ashcroft's poll will be out Tuesday.
That's the speech every politician has already written: the one where democratic legitimacy is threatened by a dark, malovent force that the people must prevent.
Well - it isn't much of a dare to ask the SNP, SDLP, Plaid and Green to chuck him out.
Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Nottingham NG9 1JG.
Nick Palmer will be at the Saloon Bar at around that time, and with a fair wind should be able to stay for the evening.
They are briefing this in the HOPE that they do better than the expect. Its last chance saloon stuff.
Dave's enemies are circling.
The "Quislings" came from the Tweet danger of tweet-linking a story - in this case one from BBC Scotlandshire.
The "explode/crash" was a (reasonable) expectation not a hope or aspiration.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/mosfgep2128_020515.pdf
A legitimacy argument is doomed to failover if you can't command a majority on the floor of the house you can't govern. The numbers are inexorable.
Would he really risk the humiliation of clinging on and being turfed out ? Surely he'd walk with his head held high.
They increased spending by 50% in real terms between 2000 and 2010. A massive increase never seen before in peacetime. During this period when we had growth they ran deficits, they should have been paying down debt not increasing it.
Well, I'd avoid those Greens, they sound dangerous.
He will go. I can only think the senior Tories plan is get rid of Dave and take his place.