and this is why you must lay Boris Johnson over the summer in the tory leadership election.
You can't aspire to be PM and use words like that.
In fairness to Boris, he knows he probably has little appeal to lose north of the border. If he's ever PM, it will likely be of an independent England.
He does well with Con voters but he is horrendously unpopular on the doorstep with non-Con voters. Ask anyone who was with him at Eastleigh. As for the North. He is even less popular than DC. He would not bring more voters to the party and that is what will be looking for.
Except when the pollster ask if the Tories were led by Boris rather than Cameron, how would you vote, and the Tories get several % bump. Enough of a bump to actually win.
Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down
Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.
Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"
Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”
Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a majority, minority or another coalition with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"
Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
I'm bemused by some reactions on here. The polls are tied. Labour will have to rely on the SNP. The Tories will not have enough seats. Neither scenario is cause for celebration,.
Some people, though not myself, like the idea of Labour having to rely on the SNP, and not all of them are Scottish nationalists.
As for neither scenario being cause for celebration, it has been clear for a while that it was unlikely to be an election which resulted in a stable government (even narrow majorities are problematic in their own way), so whatever happens I think most people are prepared for chaos to follow, and not much point worrying about it overmuch.
People may be prepared for chaos but the markets will re-act very negatively damaging investment, jobs and the economy.
Millibland told the Welsh to get stuffed as well. I don't think he likes anybody or is that McTernan that hates everybody?
Well I have spent much the day out canvassing -and having got home and considered a few points here are my thoughts for what they are worth:
Firstly, I canvassed for Laura Sandys and Charlie Elphick in 2010 so i like to think that I have a reasonably good base in the area to draw from in recent times and campaigned for others in the past.
1) The battle-and it is a battle-in Thanet S is very tight. My gut feel is that Farage might win but a lot of people-especially moderates, Lib Dems and women really don't want Farage. He might loose because of the anti vote rather than because of a positive vote for Mackinlay-the question is will the anti-vote actually turn out?
2) Mackinlay is winning people over-he isnt a natural but in some ways that is helping-for all his Jack the Lad manner-Farage is a pro and it shows-he isnt the outsider he tries to be.
3) Will Scobie of Labour is nowhere.
Which increasingly raises a question in my mind;
Ashcroft Polls have said for a long time that this is a 3 way marginal, well unless there are a huge number of shy Labour supporters, my experience on the doorstep doesn't relate to this.
Taken further-a good friend is Scottish Labour through and through, yet in Thanet S he is voting Tory because "Sturgeon needs to be taken out and shot"
I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that MANY past allegiances have broken down, that therefore "past voting" weighting is often meaningless and that therefore the opinion polls in this election should come with a severe health warning.
From a betting point of view I am closing most of my positions down, except I am long on Lib Dems at 24 and short on UKIP at 8.8 I have made a tidy profit -by my standards!! But I dont fancy handing it all back on Friday - sadly I think Charles Kennedy is gone and although I hope Murphy and Douglas Alexander are toast I am closing out with a small profit as I have a horrible feeling the pair of them will survive.
I may go back into the market this week but from my admittedly one experience of Thanet S i am hugely sceptical of the polls-especially the constituency ones.
This election is absolutely all over the place. Please be careful out there - I hate seeing a bookie with a smile on his face.
Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Just to check, do spending cuts have to be approved Parliament (through Budgets)? Or would a government without a majority be able to make cuts without parliamentary approval?
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
Well I have spent much the day out canvassing -and having got home and considered a few points here are my thoughts for what they are worth:
Firstly, I canvassed for Laura Sandys and Charlie Elphick in 2010 so i like to think that I have a reasonably good base in the area to draw from in recent times and campaigned for others in the past.
1) The battle-and it is a battle-in Thanet S is very tight. My gut feel is that Farage might win but a lot of people-especially moderates, Lib Dems and women really don't want Farage. He might loose because of the anti vote rather than because of a positive vote for Mackinlay-the question is will the anti-vote actually turn out?
2) Mackinlay is winning people over-he isnt a natural but in some ways that is helping-for all his Jack the Lad manner-Farage is a pro and it shows-he isnt the outsider he tries to be.
3) Will Scobie of Labour is nowhere.
Which increasingly raises a question in my mind;
Ashcroft Polls have said for a long time that this is a 3 way marginal, well unless there are a huge number of shy Labour supporters, my experience on the doorstep doesn't relate to this.
Taken further-a good friend is Scottish Labour through and through, yet in Thanet S he is voting Tory because "Sturgeon needs to be taken out and shot"
I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that MANY past allegiances have broken down, that therefore "past voting" weighting is often meaningless and that therefore the opinion polls in this election should come with a severe health warning.
From a betting point of view I am closing most of my positions down, except I am long on Lib Dems at 24 and short on UKIP at 8.8 I have made a tidy profit -by my standards!! But I dont fancy handing it all back on Friday - sadly I think Charles Kennedy is gone and although I hope Murphy and Douglas Alexander are toast I am closing out with a small profit as I have a horrible feeling the pair of them will survive.
I may go back into the market this week but from my admittedly one experience of Thanet S i am hugely sceptical of the polls-especially the constituency ones.
This election is absolutely all over the place. Please be careful out there - I hate seeing a bookie with a smile on his face.
I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.
Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.
Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.
I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.
I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
I'm bemused by some reactions on here. The polls are tied. Labour will have to rely on the SNP. The Tories will not have enough seats. Neither scenario is cause for celebration,.
Some people, though not myself, like the idea of Labour having to rely on the SNP, and not all of them are Scottish nationalists.
As for neither scenario being cause for celebration, it has been clear for a while that it was unlikely to be an election which resulted in a stable government (even narrow majorities are problematic in their own way), so whatever happens I think most people are prepared for chaos to follow, and not much point worrying about it overmuch.
People may be prepared for chaos but the markets will re-act very negatively damaging investment, jobs and the economy.
A Tory majority would have a similar effect - two years of economic chaos while the Tories do the Hokey-Kokey around an EU referendum.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
To say you're "not voting" might not feel right for people who would vote for someone, but find none of the options good enough.
Just to check, do spending cuts have to be approved Parliament (through Budgets)? Or would a government without a majority be able to make cuts without parliamentary approval?
Government's don't even have to follow budgets. Otherwise, there wouldn't be overspends and underspends.
I assume Cameron 'declaring victory' (he can declare whatever he likes, it has no effect one way or the other) in the event of most votes and seats is really just to put pressure on his opponents to stake out their positions quickly. That is, if it is unclear who could form a workable majority from the result, he will set out his intention to press ahead regardless of who he can get to support him, on the basis that he won most seats so he's having the first go. Perhaps hoping indicating he is not waiting to see if he can get the LDs or others on board, daring them to come to him while he's already going ahead with his plans, that Labour and others will have to jumpstart their negotiations, and in their haste, and media frenzy, fail to clinch a deal.
Not sure how any of that would work - Labour and the SNP would know between them they could outvote Cameron, and cool heads should prevent a panic; after all, Cameron cannot confirm himself in post, and they know how many days they have to prove they will be the ones who can command a majority.
The Survation poll looks like nonsense given the sample size per constituency. YouGov, and its supplementaries, is tonight's most significant poll, and Kellner's comments are telling. The Tories don't need too much of a swing this week and DC will be back in no 10.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
To say you're "not voting" might not feel right for people who would vote for someone, but find none of the options good enough.
Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
If you have to let Lab+SNP, you have to let them in.
Nothing you describing it as a coalition led by a losing party, who can't accept that he hasn't done enough.
The Survation poll looks like nonsense given the sample size per constituency. YouGov, and its supplementaries, is tonight's most significant poll, and Kellner's comments are telling. The Tories don't need too much of a swing this week and DC will be back in no 10.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
Forget the Euros, they're not relevant. The problem with the Euros is that the polls vastly overstate the numbers of voters. It's all about who actually turns out, a very large portion of those that say they will vote don't bother. That makes the Euros very difficult to poll. Comparing the Euros with the GE is like comparing apples and oranges. Stick to the GE.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
I assume Cameron 'declaring victory' (he can declare whatever he likes, it has no effect one way or the other) in the event of most votes and seats is really just to put pressure on his opponents to stake out their positions quickly. That is, if it is unclear who could form a workable majority from the result, he will set out his intention to press ahead regardless of who he can get to support him, on the basis that he won most seats so he's having the first go. Perhaps hoping indicating he is not waiting to see if he can get the LDs or others on board, daring them to come to him while he's already going ahead with his plans, that Labour and others will have to jumpstart their negotiations, and in their haste, and media frenzy, fail to clinch a deal.
Not sure how any of that would work - Labour and the SNP would know between them they could outvote Cameron, and cool heads should prevent a panic; after all, Cameron cannot confirm himself in post, and they know how many days they have to prove they will be the ones who can command a majority.
The Civil service will be pissed off with Dave if he does that - and annoyed that he's briefing this already.
Expect Gus O'Donnell to pop up regularly over the next few days to clarify things.
Well yeah, he's not going to get a 20+ majority whether he teams up with the LDs or not. However if Con leads Lab by ~15 seats there are so many different variables that it's not impossible to see him stay in No.10 for five months before an election (most likely if Con+Lib > Lab+SNP)
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
Usually I'd agree with you that the head in the sand approach is, well, just that. However this election has so many unknowns that there may be some merit to 'the polls are wrong'
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down
Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.
Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"
Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”
Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a majority, minority or another coalition with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"
Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
Yep. None of their polices which probably be able to through if he governing a minority government; I think DC will find his government will be quite shortlived.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
If that is really so, then the Tories really are in trouble.
Regarding the sample size in the poll. I don't think the idea was to get a big sample in each seat, it was to ensure each respondent saw a list of their candidates.
Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down
Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.
Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"
Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”
Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a majority, minority or another coalition with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"
Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
Yep. None of their polices which probably be able to through if he governing a minority government; I think DC will find his government will be quite shortlived.
Yeah, however if he's still in place 10 days after the GE I expect that he'll stay there for 5 months, attempt to get the boundary changes through (and prob. fail) before an autumn election.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
If that is really so, then the Tories really are in trouble.
Nah, I live in Nick Clegg's constituency.
Tories aren't going to win this seat.
So I was facing the situation of voting tactically for the very first time.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
Indeed.
And as not one single standard poll has suggested that Conservative 33%, Labour 32% is wrong, and MoE takes all standard polls to that conclusion, it is pretty clear how the election will turn out.
Polls arent't wrong because they move about around the MoE, they are right because they do and all polls indicate that we are going to get Cons 33%, Labour 32%, Lib 8%, Green 5%. The only question is about UKIP which actually makes sense as they have no General Election history to base it on. It's probably going to be 14% but there is some hope or fear for Kippers that it might be wrong.
But in general we know the outcome. It's the same outcome the polls have shown consistently for the last 4 months. Labour and Tory roughly tied on seats and ONLY a deal with the SNP can take either of them to a majority position.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
Usually I'd agree with you that the head in the sand approach is, well, just that. However this election has so many unknowns that there may be some merit to 'the polls are wrong'
The polls may be wrong but it is very unlikely that they are all "wrong" in the direction of underestimating the Tory vote which seems to be the general assumption on PB.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
A tough choice since the Dry But Not Obsessed with the Gays and Europe Tory Party was not fielding a candidate in your constituency.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
I'm not so sure how much past voting record will apply as much this time in an election like this which has splintered so much with UKIP and SNP etc. But I do think the ex-tory element of UKIP could deliver Dave another couple of percent as the polls have indicated that a fair few when push comes to shove will hold their nose and vote blue to keep Ed out plus fear of SNP influencing England too. plus Online polling I think is understating Tories. it is a tight race but I think the tories will come ahead. Hopefully JackW is accurate this time too!!!
I was woken up at 4am by a text from a friend simply saying :It's a girl!!!". Even half asleep I knew who it was. My wife and I had a special drink at lunch to wet the baby's head and wish her all the best.
Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
There's no automatic obligation to resign. He's only obliged to go if he loses a vote of No Confidence. And even then, only if someone else can form a government within 14 days (or else it goes to a new election)
Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
Are you certain about that? :-)
Most votes and most seats certainly looks like a victory to me. Would you rather have fewer votes and fewer seats? Of course that is nothing to do with commanding a majority in parliament. This was not what was claimed.
Cameron can certainly cause some mischief by being stubborn. He can't hang on eternally, but he can force Labour to explicitly topple him with the support of the SNP, which will be embarassing given Miliband's statements about deals. And will mean that if the subsequent Labour government is fragile, they'll be seen as responsible..
Out with friends tonight the consensus amongst informed but not political nerds (except me) was that Cameron was going to win but may have to rely on UKIP. Everyone thinks Ed is heading for defeat and is a hapless character. Even the left leaners thought Dave looks more PM material.
None realised that UKIP are gifting the keys to No 10 to Ed. They didn't understand until I explained why.
I think millions across the country think the same. They don't realise the disaster about to unfold.
I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.
Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.
Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.
I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.
I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
Will it be an x for Walker or Cleggy boy.
I was tempted to draw a phallus shaped object next to Clegg's name indicating a clear preference for one candidate.
Push comes to shove I'm not sure Cameron would actually take things to a vote. He will know if he by the time one is needed if Labour have cobbled together enough votes to pass their own vote or not, what benefit does he or the Tory party get now or later by being defeated in a vote prior to Labour having their own vote go through?
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
I'm not so sure how much past voting record will apply as much this time in an election like this which has splintered so much with UKIP and SNP etc. But I do think the ex-tory element of UKIP could deliver Dave another couple of percent as the polls have indicated that a fair few when push comes to shove will hold their nose and vote blue to keep Ed out plus fear of SNP influencing England too. plus Online polling I think is understating Tories. it is a tight race but I think the tories will come ahead. Hopefully JackW is accurate this time too!!!
I think the Tories will come ahead but not by enough to form the next government. Lets face it they will only have the largest number of seats courtesy of the SNP, who are a more left-of-centre block than the Labour MP's they will replacing.
I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.
Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.
Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.
I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.
I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.
Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.
Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.
I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.
I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
I thought it an open invite. I am a LD ex Labourite...
Presumably Cameron can sit tight on a minority until Miliband can prove he can command a majority in the house. That proof would require fomal c&s or coalition deals. I suspect the tories are trying to flush out the 'deal' that Miliband has publicly rejected out of hand.
I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.
Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.
Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.
I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.
I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
Will it be an x for Walker or Cleggy boy.
I was tempted to draw a phallus shaped object next to Clegg's name indicating a clear preference for one candidate.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
Will it be an x for Walker or Cleggy boy.
I was tempted to draw a phallus shaped object next to Clegg's name indicating a clear preference for one candidate.
I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.
Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.
Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.
I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.
I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
Presumably Cameron can sit tight on a minority until Miliband can prove he can command a majority in the house. That proof would require fomal c&s or coalition deals. I suspect the tories are trying to flush out the 'deal' that Miliband has publicly rejected out of hand.
Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
Are you certain about that? :-)
Most votes and most seats certainly looks like a victory to me. Would you rather have fewer votes and fewer seats? Of course that is nothing to do with commanding a majority in parliament. This was not what was claimed.
On that basis the Tories won in 2010. Except they didn't.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
Will it be an x for Walker or Cleggy boy.
I was tempted to draw a phallus shaped object next to Clegg's name indicating a clear preference for one candidate.
However the X went next to Ian Walker's name
I never knew you wanted to see PM Ed so much !
I do, the morning thread is all about Ed becoming PM, even if he loses the popular vote/is behind on seats.
The whole "command a majority" is confused by the FTPA.
Ed will not "command a majority", whatever happens, so why should he be PM instead of Cameron?
And you don't need to command a majority to be PM anyway. Ever heard the term "minority Government"?
I guess Cameron will dare his opponents to vote him out, which I expect they will do, sealing the Ed/Nicola pact with blood.
What happens in a hung Parliament?
The previous government might remain in position whilst there is a period of negotiation to build a coalition, or they might decide to try and govern with a minority of Members of Parliament.
If the incumbent government is unable to command a majority and decides to resign, the leader of the largest opposition party may be invited to form a government and may do so either as a minority or in coalition with another party or parties.
I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.
Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.
Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.
I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.
I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
There's going to be a few PB Tories there!
To be fair any one to the right of Mao gets labelled as a PB Tory!
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?
It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
A tough choice since the Dry But Not Obsessed with the Gays and Europe Tory Party was not fielding a candidate in your constituency.
Constituency update THANET SOUTH .... 1) The battle-and it is a battle-in Thanet S is very tight. My gut feel is that Farage might win but a lot of people-especially moderates, Lib Dems and women really don't want Farage. He might loose because of the anti vote rather than because of a positive vote for Mackinlay-the question is will the anti-vote actually turn out? .... 3) Will Scobie of Labour is nowhere. Which increasingly raises a question in my mind; Ashcroft Polls have said for a long time that this is a 3 way marginal, well unless there are a huge number of shy Labour supporters, my experience on the doorstep doesn't relate to this. Taken further-a good friend is Scottish Labour through and through, yet in Thanet S he is voting Tory because "Sturgeon needs to be taken out and shot" I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that MANY past allegiances have broken down, that therefore "past voting" weighting is often meaningless and that therefore the opinion polls in this election should come with a severe health warning. ... This election is absolutely all over the place. ...
I think you make good points about poll weighting and past allegiances. The polls, and there are a lot of them, are full of conflicts. Perhaps the polls are accurate - but in reflecting the conflicts of the electorate.
Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down
Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.
Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"
Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”
Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a majority, minority or another coalition with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"
Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
Dare others to vote him down? I doubt that will take long unless some Labour rebels decide not to vote against him. That's more likely than some think, don't forget how the likes of Reid and Blunkett were keen to sabotage a Lib/Lab deal in 2010. Different circumstances now but you can be sure that some Labour tribalists would want Ed out and a new leader who could win outright and what about the continuity Blairites who probably prefer Dave to Ed?
As far as I understand the system there is no onus on the PM to resign? Did Major have to go so suddenly in '97 or could he have waited for a confidence motion? Obviously that would have been silly in his case but we're dealing with technicalities here.
Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34 CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33 Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34 YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33
So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.
If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
I'm not so sure how much past voting record will apply as much this time in an election like this which has splintered so much with UKIP and SNP etc. But I do think the ex-tory element of UKIP could deliver Dave another couple of percent as the polls have indicated that a fair few when push comes to shove will hold their nose and vote blue to keep Ed out plus fear of SNP influencing England too. plus Online polling I think is understating Tories. it is a tight race but I think the tories will come ahead. Hopefully JackW is accurate this time too!!!
I think the Tories will come ahead but not by enough to form the next government. Lets face it they will only have the largest number of seats courtesy of the SNP, who are a more left-of-centre block than the Labour MP's they will replacing.
yes but the SNP aren't labour and largest party is the largest party, labour will quickly become very unpopular if they put together an anti-tory alliance of the losers in the publics eye, it could destroy labour for a generation, and as Ed has said he will do no deal with SNP it will be worse than Cleggs no tuition fee broken promise, political suicide for him
The whole "command a majority" is confused by the FTPA.
Ed will not "command a majority", whatever happens, so why should he be PM instead of Cameron?
And you don't need to command a majority to be PM anyway. Ever heard the term "minority Government"?
I guess Cameron will dare his opponents to vote him out, which I expect they will do, sealing the Ed/Nicola pact with blood.
Yes, sounds like a long-term strategic move by Dave - lock Labour and the SNP into a deadly embrace then sit back and watch as Labour dissolves south of the border. We might be witnessing the first throes of the strange death of Labour England.
Push comes to shove I'm not sure Cameron would actually take things to a vote. He will know if he by the time one is needed if Labour have cobbled together enough votes to pass their own vote or not, what benefit does he or the Tory party get now or later by being defeated in a vote prior to Labour having their own vote go through?
Duh. Because any minority pact that defeats him will then be crippled by the taint of illegitimacy.
Cameron is quite right (logically, ethically and politically). If he gets most votes and seats on Thursday he should declare moral victory, and dare anyone else to vote him down.
Of course he will easily be beaten by a larger caucus of desperate lefties, creepy Greens, mad Taffs and psycho-Nats, but the bad taste will linger forever, and England will feel deprived of its rightful government.
Cue the obliteration of Labour in England in any ensuing election (probably coming within a year, after Holyrood). Cue 10-15 years of Tory majority government.
Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
There's no automatic obligation to resign. He's only obliged to go if he loses a vote of No Confidence. And even then, only if someone else can form a government within 14 days (or else it goes to a new election)
If he's certain he can't, he must resign. However such certainty is usually only apparent when the Opposition has won a majority, although it is possible to conceive of other circumstances.
So he is entitled, provided there is genuine doubt, to meet the House to resolve the uncertainty.
But be in no doubt, if he loses the VoC, Miliband will be summoned to be PM, whether he has 200, 250, or 300 seats.
Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down
Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.
Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"
Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”
Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a majority, minority or another coalition with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"
Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
Dare others to vote him down? I doubt that will take long unless some Labour rebels decide not to vote against him. That's more likely than some think, don't forget how the likes of Reid and Blunkett were keen to sabotage a Lib/Lab deal in 2010. Different circumstances now but you can be sure that some Labour tribalists would want Ed out and a new leader who could win outright and what about the continuity Blairites who probably prefer Dave to Ed?
Surely there's a difference between Labour allowing the Tories to stay in government, and actively voting to pass through Tory policies? They could effectively say "fine, you have most seats and have the right to stay in, but we'll wield our veto in parliament over any legislation we don't like".
Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down
Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.
Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"
Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”
Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a majority, minority or another coalition with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"
Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
Dare others to vote him down? I doubt that will take long unless some Labour rebels decide not to vote against him. That's more likely than some think, don't forget how the likes of Reid and Blunkett were keen to sabotage a Lib/Lab deal in 2010. Different circumstances now but you can be sure that some Labour tribalists would want Ed out and a new leader who could win outright and what about the continuity Blairites who probably prefer Dave to Ed?
Surely there's a difference between Labour allowing the Tories to stay in government, and actively voting to pass through Tory policies? They could effectively say "fine, you have most seats and have the right to stay in, but we'll wield our veto in parliament over any legislation we don't like".
this is certainly proving to be the most messy and interesting election we had for a very long time.
Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability 07 May 2015 General Election Nigel Farage Prime Minister After General Election 970 £0.10 £96.90
Comments
Obviously a nice poll for Labour but the hype about the ballot papers does not amount to much.
I know a fair bit.
THANET SOUTH
Well I have spent much the day out canvassing -and having got home and considered a few points here are my thoughts for what they are worth:
Firstly, I canvassed for Laura Sandys and Charlie Elphick in 2010 so i like to think that I have a reasonably good base in the area to draw from in recent times and campaigned for others in the past.
1) The battle-and it is a battle-in Thanet S is very tight. My gut feel is that Farage might win but a lot of people-especially moderates, Lib Dems and women really don't want Farage. He might loose because of the anti vote rather than because of a positive vote for Mackinlay-the question is will the anti-vote actually turn out?
2) Mackinlay is winning people over-he isnt a natural but in some ways that is helping-for all his Jack the Lad manner-Farage is a pro and it shows-he isnt the outsider he tries to be.
3) Will Scobie of Labour is nowhere.
Which increasingly raises a question in my mind;
Ashcroft Polls have said for a long time that this is a 3 way marginal, well unless there are a huge number of shy Labour supporters, my experience on the doorstep doesn't relate to this.
Taken further-a good friend is Scottish Labour through and through, yet in Thanet S he is voting Tory because "Sturgeon needs to be taken out and shot"
I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that MANY past allegiances have broken down, that therefore "past voting" weighting is often meaningless and that therefore the opinion polls in this election should come with a severe health warning.
From a betting point of view I am closing most of my positions down, except I am long on Lib Dems at 24 and short on UKIP at 8.8 I have made a tidy profit -by my standards!! But I dont fancy handing it all back on Friday - sadly I think Charles Kennedy is gone and although I hope Murphy and Douglas Alexander are toast I am closing out with a small profit as I have a horrible feeling the pair of them will survive.
I may go back into the market this week but from my admittedly one experience of Thanet S i am hugely sceptical of the polls-especially the constituency ones.
This election is absolutely all over the place. Please be careful out there - I hate seeing a bookie with a smile on his face.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
David Cameron can declare whatever he likes on Friday, but if Ed M has the seats Ed's PM. (He won't. But it still needs saying).
Even Dan knows this....
Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.
Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.
I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.
I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
Not sure how any of that would work - Labour and the SNP would know between them they could outvote Cameron, and cool heads should prevent a panic; after all, Cameron cannot confirm himself in post, and they know how many days they have to prove they will be the ones who can command a majority.
Nothing you describing it as a coalition led by a losing party, who can't accept that he hasn't done enough.
Dave is toast
Or there not going to vote...
Expect Gus O'Donnell to pop up regularly over the next few days to clarify things.
The match on 16th will be a real six pointer. Good win for you too today.
Newcastle were shambolic. Worst side I have seen all season, and I saw us vs Hull!
How long have the coalition had the tax rate at 45% compared to the last Labour governments 40%?
Anyway, on that very agreeable note, I am off to pack.
Ladbrokes
EM 1.73 [ shortening ]
DC 2.1 [ drifting ]
DYOR
Yeah, however if he's still in place 10 days after the GE I expect that he'll stay there for 5 months, attempt to get the boundary changes through (and prob. fail) before an autumn election.
Tories aren't going to win this seat.
So I was facing the situation of voting tactically for the very first time.
And as not one single standard poll has suggested that Conservative 33%, Labour 32% is wrong, and MoE takes all standard polls to that conclusion, it is pretty clear how the election will turn out.
Polls arent't wrong because they move about around the MoE, they are right because they do and all polls indicate that we are going to get Cons 33%, Labour 32%, Lib 8%, Green 5%. The only question is about UKIP which actually makes sense as they have no General Election history to base it on. It's probably going to be 14% but there is some hope or fear for Kippers that it might be wrong.
But in general we know the outcome. It's the same outcome the polls have shown consistently for the last 4 months. Labour and Tory roughly tied on seats and ONLY a deal with the SNP can take either of them to a majority position.
Most votes and most seats certainly looks like a victory to me. Would you rather have fewer votes and fewer seats? Of course that is nothing to do with commanding a majority in parliament. This was not what was claimed.
I approve of Dave effectively telling Labour leaning SNP supporters they need to get behind Labour. Cheers.
None realised that UKIP are gifting the keys to No 10 to Ed. They didn't understand until I explained why.
I think millions across the country think the same. They don't realise the disaster about to unfold.
However the X went next to Ian Walker's name
Ed will not "command a majority", whatever happens, so why should he be PM instead of Cameron?
And you don't need to command a majority to be PM anyway. Ever heard the term "minority Government"?
I guess Cameron will dare his opponents to vote him out, which I expect they will do, sealing the Ed/Nicola pact with blood.
The previous government might remain in position whilst there is a period of negotiation to build a coalition, or they might decide to try and govern with a minority of Members of Parliament.
If the incumbent government is unable to command a majority and decides to resign, the leader of the largest opposition party may be invited to form a government and may do so either as a minority or in coalition with another party or parties.
Will you wish for all the hours back you spent pasteing tweets on here when he goes?
As far as I understand the system there is no onus on the PM to resign? Did Major have to go so suddenly in '97 or could he have waited for a confidence motion? Obviously that would have been silly in his case but we're dealing with technicalities here.
So he is entitled, provided there is genuine doubt, to meet the House to resolve the uncertainty.
But be in no doubt, if he loses the VoC, Miliband will be summoned to be PM, whether he has 200, 250, or 300 seats.
And I am mr EICIPM
07 May 2015 General Election
Nigel Farage Prime Minister After General Election 970 £0.10
£96.90
[Insert betting disclaimer here]