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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend genera

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  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    surbiton said:

    Boris: "People are looking at Miliband...getting bad visuals of him popping out of Alex Salmond’s sporran like a baffled baby kangaroo."


    Boris: "Nobody thinks this is going to be some tartan tyranny with everybody forced to wear kilts. But it would be a chaotic and tense".

    I thought the Tories wanted a United Kingdom.
    Lip service.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    I'm about to get off soon, but can I put a last plug for a pre poll East Midlands, Broxtowe soiree on the 5th May 8.00 at the:

    Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Nottingham NG9 1JG.

    Nick Palmer will be at the Saloon Bar at around that time, and with a fair wind should be able to stay for the evening.

    I should get there 930 ish. Will be wearing a Leicester City tie!
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited May 2015

    kjohnw said:

    anyone know the sample size for survation and did it cover 632 constituencies

    Sample size was 2,128

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/mosfgep2128_020515.pdf
    That's just over 3 votes per constituency. Financier, his wife and the window cleaner would cover one constituency.

    Obviously a nice poll for Labour but the hype about the ballot papers does not amount to much.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    surbiton said:

    Boris: "People are looking at Miliband...getting bad visuals of him popping out of Alex Salmond’s sporran like a baffled baby kangaroo."


    Boris: "Nobody thinks this is going to be some tartan tyranny with everybody forced to wear kilts. But it would be a chaotic and tense".

    I thought the Tories wanted a United Kingdom.
    Lip service.
    Ah yes, another secret plan.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    IOS said:

    Key thing here - is the Tories are expecting to do worse than 290.

    They are briefing this in the HOPE that they do better than the expect. Its last chance saloon stuff.

    Or they are doing expectation management. The only thing we get from this is that you, like us, have no idea what the actual situation is.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    kjohnw said:

    anyone know the sample size for survation and did it cover 632 constituencies

    Sample size was 2,128

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/mosfgep2128_020515.pdf
    That's 4 per constituency! That's not statistically significant. Thought it was away with the fairies.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    chestnut said:

    39-5. What are England playing at?

    All out by lunch on Day 3. Windies target of about 180 might allow the bowlers a chance.
  • ToffeenoseToffeenose Posts: 19

    and this is why you must lay Boris Johnson over the summer in the tory leadership election.

    You can't aspire to be PM and use words like that.
    In fairness to Boris, he knows he probably has little appeal to lose north of the border. If he's ever PM, it will likely be of an independent England.
    He does well with Con voters but he is horrendously unpopular on the doorstep with non-Con voters. Ask anyone who was with him at Eastleigh. As for the North. He is even less popular than DC. He would not bring more voters to the party and that is what will be looking for.
    Except when the pollster ask if the Tories were led by Boris rather than Cameron, how would you vote, and the Tories get several % bump. Enough of a bump to actually win.
    We will see.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Chameleon

    I know a fair bit.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    tyson said:

    I'm about to get off soon, but can I put a last plug for a pre poll East Midlands, Broxtowe soiree on the 5th May 8.00 at the:

    Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Nottingham NG9 1JG.

    Nick Palmer will be at the Saloon Bar at around that time, and with a fair wind should be able to stay for the evening.

    I should get there 930 ish. Will be wearing a Leicester City tie!
    Great run for you - unfortunately I am a Sunderland supporter . . .
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2015

    Via Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times

    Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down

    Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.

    Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"

    Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”

    Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a major­ity, minority or another coali­tion with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"

    Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154

    kle4 said:

    I'm bemused by some reactions on here. The polls are tied. Labour will have to rely on the SNP. The Tories will not have enough seats. Neither scenario is cause for celebration,.

    Some people, though not myself, like the idea of Labour having to rely on the SNP, and not all of them are Scottish nationalists.

    As for neither scenario being cause for celebration, it has been clear for a while that it was unlikely to be an election which resulted in a stable government (even narrow majorities are problematic in their own way), so whatever happens I think most people are prepared for chaos to follow, and not much point worrying about it overmuch.
    People may be prepared for chaos but the markets will re-act very negatively damaging investment, jobs and the economy.
    Millibland told the Welsh to get stuffed as well. I don't think he likes anybody or is that McTernan that hates everybody?
  • Constituency update

    THANET SOUTH

    Well I have spent much the day out canvassing -and having got home and considered a few points here are my thoughts for what they are worth:

    Firstly, I canvassed for Laura Sandys and Charlie Elphick in 2010 so i like to think that I have a reasonably good base in the area to draw from in recent times and campaigned for others in the past.

    1) The battle-and it is a battle-in Thanet S is very tight. My gut feel is that Farage might win but a lot of people-especially moderates, Lib Dems and women really don't want Farage. He might loose because of the anti vote rather than because of a positive vote for Mackinlay-the question is will the anti-vote actually turn out?

    2) Mackinlay is winning people over-he isnt a natural but in some ways that is helping-for all his Jack the Lad manner-Farage is a pro and it shows-he isnt the outsider he tries to be.

    3) Will Scobie of Labour is nowhere.

    Which increasingly raises a question in my mind;

    Ashcroft Polls have said for a long time that this is a 3 way marginal, well unless there are a huge number of shy Labour supporters, my experience on the doorstep doesn't relate to this.

    Taken further-a good friend is Scottish Labour through and through, yet in Thanet S he is voting Tory because "Sturgeon needs to be taken out and shot"

    I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that MANY past allegiances have broken down, that therefore "past voting" weighting is often meaningless and that therefore the opinion polls in this election should come with a severe health warning.

    From a betting point of view I am closing most of my positions down, except I am long on Lib Dems at 24 and short on UKIP at 8.8 I have made a tidy profit -by my standards!! But I dont fancy handing it all back on Friday - sadly I think Charles Kennedy is gone and although I hope Murphy and Douglas Alexander are toast I am closing out with a small profit as I have a horrible feeling the pair of them will survive.

    I may go back into the market this week but from my admittedly one experience of Thanet S i am hugely sceptical of the polls-especially the constituency ones.

    This election is absolutely all over the place. Please be careful out there - I hate seeing a bookie with a smile on his face.




  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
    Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
    If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    tyson said:

    I'm about to get off soon, but can I put a last plug for a pre poll East Midlands, Broxtowe soiree on the 5th May 8.00 at the:

    Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Nottingham NG9 1JG.

    Nick Palmer will be at the Saloon Bar at around that time, and with a fair wind should be able to stay for the evening.

    I should get there 930 ish. Will be wearing a Leicester City tie!
    Eight in the morning o_O ?! Are you all getting lashed and then gayly campaigning for Nick xD ?!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    May2015 showing (NB not projecting, it's a nowcast) Lab lead on votes and Con lead on seats.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    On a 2-party ticket - yes. Unfortunately there are known unknowns - like where will the kippers surface?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Just to check, do spending cuts have to be approved Parliament (through Budgets)? Or would a government without a majority be able to make cuts without parliamentary approval?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Constituency update

    THANET SOUTH

    Well I have spent much the day out canvassing -and having got home and considered a few points here are my thoughts for what they are worth:

    Firstly, I canvassed for Laura Sandys and Charlie Elphick in 2010 so i like to think that I have a reasonably good base in the area to draw from in recent times and campaigned for others in the past.

    1) The battle-and it is a battle-in Thanet S is very tight. My gut feel is that Farage might win but a lot of people-especially moderates, Lib Dems and women really don't want Farage. He might loose because of the anti vote rather than because of a positive vote for Mackinlay-the question is will the anti-vote actually turn out?

    2) Mackinlay is winning people over-he isnt a natural but in some ways that is helping-for all his Jack the Lad manner-Farage is a pro and it shows-he isnt the outsider he tries to be.

    3) Will Scobie of Labour is nowhere.

    Which increasingly raises a question in my mind;

    Ashcroft Polls have said for a long time that this is a 3 way marginal, well unless there are a huge number of shy Labour supporters, my experience on the doorstep doesn't relate to this.

    Taken further-a good friend is Scottish Labour through and through, yet in Thanet S he is voting Tory because "Sturgeon needs to be taken out and shot"

    I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that MANY past allegiances have broken down, that therefore "past voting" weighting is often meaningless and that therefore the opinion polls in this election should come with a severe health warning.

    From a betting point of view I am closing most of my positions down, except I am long on Lib Dems at 24 and short on UKIP at 8.8 I have made a tidy profit -by my standards!! But I dont fancy handing it all back on Friday - sadly I think Charles Kennedy is gone and although I hope Murphy and Douglas Alexander are toast I am closing out with a small profit as I have a horrible feeling the pair of them will survive.

    I may go back into the market this week but from my admittedly one experience of Thanet S i am hugely sceptical of the polls-especially the constituency ones.

    This election is absolutely all over the place. Please be careful out there - I hate seeing a bookie with a smile on his face.




    Murphy might survive, Dougie is surely gone.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    I notice Anthony polling average is showing a Con lead;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 18m18 minutes ago

    David Cameron can declare whatever he likes on Friday, but if Ed M has the seats Ed's PM. (He won't. But it still needs saying).

    Even Dan knows this....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.

    Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.

    Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.

    I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.

    I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    kle4 said:

    I'm bemused by some reactions on here. The polls are tied. Labour will have to rely on the SNP. The Tories will not have enough seats. Neither scenario is cause for celebration,.

    Some people, though not myself, like the idea of Labour having to rely on the SNP, and not all of them are Scottish nationalists.

    As for neither scenario being cause for celebration, it has been clear for a while that it was unlikely to be an election which resulted in a stable government (even narrow majorities are problematic in their own way), so whatever happens I think most people are prepared for chaos to follow, and not much point worrying about it overmuch.
    People may be prepared for chaos but the markets will re-act very negatively damaging investment, jobs and the economy.
    A Tory majority would have a similar effect - two years of economic chaos while the Tories do the Hokey-Kokey around an EU referendum.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    tyson said:

    I'm about to get off soon, but can I put a last plug for a pre poll East Midlands, Broxtowe soiree on the 5th May 8.00 at the:

    Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Nottingham NG9 1JG.

    Nick Palmer will be at the Saloon Bar at around that time, and with a fair wind should be able to stay for the evening.

    Will be there, looking forward to meeting you, sir.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    To say you're "not voting" might not feel right for people who would vote for someone, but find none of the options good enough.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    Just to check, do spending cuts have to be approved Parliament (through Budgets)? Or would a government without a majority be able to make cuts without parliamentary approval?

    Government's don't even have to follow budgets. Otherwise, there wouldn't be overspends and underspends.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    I assume Cameron 'declaring victory' (he can declare whatever he likes, it has no effect one way or the other) in the event of most votes and seats is really just to put pressure on his opponents to stake out their positions quickly. That is, if it is unclear who could form a workable majority from the result, he will set out his intention to press ahead regardless of who he can get to support him, on the basis that he won most seats so he's having the first go. Perhaps hoping indicating he is not waiting to see if he can get the LDs or others on board, daring them to come to him while he's already going ahead with his plans, that Labour and others will have to jumpstart their negotiations, and in their haste, and media frenzy, fail to clinch a deal.

    Not sure how any of that would work - Labour and the SNP would know between them they could outvote Cameron, and cool heads should prevent a panic; after all, Cameron cannot confirm himself in post, and they know how many days they have to prove they will be the ones who can command a majority.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    IOS said:

    Chameleon

    I know a fair bit.

    Do please share your knowledge with us plebeians.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    tyson said:

    I'm about to get off soon, but can I put a last plug for a pre poll East Midlands, Broxtowe soiree on the 5th May 8.00 at the:

    Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Nottingham NG9 1JG.

    Nick Palmer will be at the Saloon Bar at around that time, and with a fair wind should be able to stay for the evening.

    Will be there, looking forward to meeting you, sir.
    Just to be clear - this is 20:00, or do you actually mean 8:00 for an early morning canvassing effort... :D ?
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    The Survation poll looks like nonsense given the sample size per constituency. YouGov, and its supplementaries, is tonight's most significant poll, and Kellner's comments are telling. The Tories don't need too much of a swing this week and DC will be back in no 10.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    Grandiose said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    To say you're "not voting" might not feel right for people who would vote for someone, but find none of the options good enough.
    Don't know equals don't vote.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited May 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
    Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
    If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
    If you have to let Lab+SNP, you have to let them in.

    Nothing you describing it as a coalition led by a losing party, who can't accept that he hasn't done enough.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Chameleon

    Dave is toast
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015

    The Survation poll looks like nonsense given the sample size per constituency. YouGov, and its supplementaries, is tonight's most significant poll, and Kellner's comments are telling. The Tories don't need too much of a swing this week and DC will be back in no 10.

    Linky to comments?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Gin

    Or there not going to vote...
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    Forget the Euros, they're not relevant. The problem with the Euros is that the polls vastly overstate the numbers of voters. It's all about who actually turns out, a very large portion of those that say they will vote don't bother. That makes the Euros very difficult to poll. Comparing the Euros with the GE is like comparing apples and oranges. Stick to the GE.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    kle4 said:

    I assume Cameron 'declaring victory' (he can declare whatever he likes, it has no effect one way or the other) in the event of most votes and seats is really just to put pressure on his opponents to stake out their positions quickly. That is, if it is unclear who could form a workable majority from the result, he will set out his intention to press ahead regardless of who he can get to support him, on the basis that he won most seats so he's having the first go. Perhaps hoping indicating he is not waiting to see if he can get the LDs or others on board, daring them to come to him while he's already going ahead with his plans, that Labour and others will have to jumpstart their negotiations, and in their haste, and media frenzy, fail to clinch a deal.

    Not sure how any of that would work - Labour and the SNP would know between them they could outvote Cameron, and cool heads should prevent a panic; after all, Cameron cannot confirm himself in post, and they know how many days they have to prove they will be the ones who can command a majority.

    The Civil service will be pissed off with Dave if he does that - and annoyed that he's briefing this already.

    Expect Gus O'Donnell to pop up regularly over the next few days to clarify things.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    weejonnie said:

    tyson said:

    I'm about to get off soon, but can I put a last plug for a pre poll East Midlands, Broxtowe soiree on the 5th May 8.00 at the:

    Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Nottingham NG9 1JG.

    Nick Palmer will be at the Saloon Bar at around that time, and with a fair wind should be able to stay for the evening.

    I should get there 930 ish. Will be wearing a Leicester City tie!
    Great run for you - unfortunately I am a Sunderland supporter . . .
    We have won more in the last month than all season (incidentally on MOTD it was me and fox jr holding up the Leicester City signs!)

    The match on 16th will be a real six pointer. Good win for you too today.

    Newcastle were shambolic. Worst side I have seen all season, and I saw us vs Hull!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    IOS said:

    Chameleon

    Dave is toast

    Well yeah, he's not going to get a 20+ majority whether he teams up with the LDs or not. However if Con leads Lab by ~15 seats there are so many different variables that it's not impossible to see him stay in No.10 for five months before an election (most likely if Con+Lib > Lab+SNP)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    tyson said:

    I'm about to get off soon, but can I put a last plug for a pre poll East Midlands, Broxtowe soiree on the 5th May 8.00 at the:

    Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Nottingham NG9 1JG.

    Nick Palmer will be at the Saloon Bar at around that time, and with a fair wind should be able to stay for the evening.

    Will be there, looking forward to meeting you, sir.
    Just to be clear - this is 20:00, or do you actually mean 8:00 for an early morning canvassing effort... :D ?
    Tories4Palmer need to put in a shift. I, though, won't be...
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    OllyT said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
    Usually I'd agree with you that the head in the sand approach is, well, just that. However this election has so many unknowns that there may be some merit to 'the polls are wrong'
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
    You were in a pretty unusual situation though.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Danny565 said:

    Via Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times

    Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down

    Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.

    Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"

    Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”

    Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a major­ity, minority or another coali­tion with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"

    Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
    Yep. None of their polices which probably be able to through if he governing a minority government; I think DC will find his government will be quite shortlived.
  • GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
    If that is really so, then the Tories really are in trouble.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Regarding the sample size in the poll. I don't think the idea was to get a big sample in each seat, it was to ensure each respondent saw a list of their candidates.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    How long did the last Labour government have the tax rate at 50% as opposed to 40%?

    How long have the coalition had the tax rate at 45% compared to the last Labour governments 40%?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    tyson said:

    I'm about to get off soon, but can I put a last plug for a pre poll East Midlands, Broxtowe soiree on the 5th May 8.00 at the:

    Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Nottingham NG9 1JG.

    Nick Palmer will be at the Saloon Bar at around that time, and with a fair wind should be able to stay for the evening.

    Will be there, looking forward to meeting you, sir.
    Ditto Tissue.

    Anyway, on that very agreeable note, I am off to pack.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Next PM after election:

    Ladbrokes

    EM 1.73 [ shortening ]
    DC 2.1 [ drifting ]


    DYOR
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Danny565 said:

    Via Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times

    Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down

    Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.

    Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"

    Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”

    Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a major­ity, minority or another coali­tion with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"

    Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
    Yep. None of their polices which probably be able to through if he governing a minority government; I think DC will find his government will be quite shortlived.

    Yeah, however if he's still in place 10 days after the GE I expect that he'll stay there for 5 months, attempt to get the boundary changes through (and prob. fail) before an autumn election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
    If that is really so, then the Tories really are in trouble.
    Nah, I live in Nick Clegg's constituency.

    Tories aren't going to win this seat.

    So I was facing the situation of voting tactically for the very first time.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    OllyT said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
    Indeed.

    And as not one single standard poll has suggested that Conservative 33%, Labour 32% is wrong, and MoE takes all standard polls to that conclusion, it is pretty clear how the election will turn out.

    Polls arent't wrong because they move about around the MoE, they are right because they do and all polls indicate that we are going to get Cons 33%, Labour 32%, Lib 8%, Green 5%. The only question is about UKIP which actually makes sense as they have no General Election history to base it on. It's probably going to be 14% but there is some hope or fear for Kippers that it might be wrong.

    But in general we know the outcome. It's the same outcome the polls have shown consistently for the last 4 months. Labour and Tory roughly tied on seats and ONLY a deal with the SNP can take either of them to a majority position.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Chameleon said:

    OllyT said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
    Usually I'd agree with you that the head in the sand approach is, well, just that. However this election has so many unknowns that there may be some merit to 'the polls are wrong'
    The polls may be wrong but it is very unlikely that they are all "wrong" in the direction of underestimating the Tory vote which seems to be the general assumption on PB.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SPIN spread: Con lead down to 23 from 28 .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
    Will it be an x for Walker or Cleggy boy.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    surbiton said:

    Next PM after election:

    Ladbrokes

    EM 1.73 [ shortening ]
    DC 2.1 [ drifting ]


    DYOR

    EM still looks good value.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
    A tough choice since the Dry But Not Obsessed with the Gays and Europe Tory Party was not fielding a candidate in your constituency.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited May 2015
    OllyT said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
    I'm not so sure how much past voting record will apply as much this time in an election like this which has splintered so much with UKIP and SNP etc. But I do think the ex-tory element of UKIP could deliver Dave another couple of percent as the polls have indicated that a fair few when push comes to shove will hold their nose and vote blue to keep Ed out plus fear of SNP influencing England too. plus Online polling I think is understating Tories. it is a tight race but I think the tories will come ahead. Hopefully JackW is accurate this time too!!!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I was woken up at 4am by a text from a friend simply saying :It's a girl!!!". Even half asleep I knew who it was. My wife and I had a special drink at lunch to wet the baby's head and wish her all the best.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
    Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
    If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
    There's no automatic obligation to resign. He's only obliged to go if he loses a vote of No Confidence. And even then, only if someone else can form a government within 14 days (or else it goes to a new election)
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
    Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
    If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
    Are you certain about that? :-)

    Most votes and most seats certainly looks like a victory to me. Would you rather have fewer votes and fewer seats? Of course that is nothing to do with commanding a majority in parliament. This was not what was claimed.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    Cameron can certainly cause some mischief by being stubborn. He can't hang on eternally, but he can force Labour to explicitly topple him with the support of the SNP, which will be embarassing given Miliband's statements about deals. And will mean that if the subsequent Labour government is fragile, they'll be seen as responsible..
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Also

    I approve of Dave effectively telling Labour leaning SNP supporters they need to get behind Labour. Cheers.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    edited May 2015
    Out with friends tonight the consensus amongst informed but not political nerds (except me) was that Cameron was going to win but may have to rely on UKIP. Everyone thinks Ed is heading for defeat and is a hapless character. Even the left leaners thought Dave looks more PM material.

    None realised that UKIP are gifting the keys to No 10 to Ed. They didn't understand until I explained why.

    I think millions across the country think the same. They don't realise the disaster about to unfold.
  • tyson said:

    I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.

    Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.

    Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.

    I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.

    I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.

    Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
    Will it be an x for Walker or Cleggy boy.
    I was tempted to draw a phallus shaped object next to Clegg's name indicating a clear preference for one candidate.

    However the X went next to Ian Walker's name
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Push comes to shove I'm not sure Cameron would actually take things to a vote. He will know if he by the time one is needed if Labour have cobbled together enough votes to pass their own vote or not, what benefit does he or the Tory party get now or later by being defeated in a vote prior to Labour having their own vote go through?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The whole "command a majority" is confused by the FTPA.

    Ed will not "command a majority", whatever happens, so why should he be PM instead of Cameron?

    And you don't need to command a majority to be PM anyway. Ever heard the term "minority Government"?

    I guess Cameron will dare his opponents to vote him out, which I expect they will do, sealing the Ed/Nicola pact with blood.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
    I'm not so sure how much past voting record will apply as much this time in an election like this which has splintered so much with UKIP and SNP etc. But I do think the ex-tory element of UKIP could deliver Dave another couple of percent as the polls have indicated that a fair few when push comes to shove will hold their nose and vote blue to keep Ed out plus fear of SNP influencing England too. plus Online polling I think is understating Tories. it is a tight race but I think the tories will come ahead. Hopefully JackW is accurate this time too!!!
    I think the Tories will come ahead but not by enough to form the next government. Lets face it they will only have the largest number of seats courtesy of the SNP, who are a more left-of-centre block than the Labour MP's they will replacing.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    tyson said:

    I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.

    Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.

    Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.

    I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.

    I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.

    Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.

    tyson said:

    I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.

    Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.

    Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.

    I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.

    I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.

    Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
    I thought it an open invite. I am a LD ex Labourite...
  • Presumably Cameron can sit tight on a minority until Miliband can prove he can command a majority in the house. That proof would require fomal c&s or coalition deals. I suspect the tories are trying to flush out the 'deal' that Miliband has publicly rejected out of hand.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    tyson said:

    I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.

    Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.

    Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.

    I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.

    I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.

    Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
    There's going to be a few PB Tories there!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
    Will it be an x for Walker or Cleggy boy.
    I was tempted to draw a phallus shaped object next to Clegg's name indicating a clear preference for one candidate.

    However the X went next to Ian Walker's name
    I never knew you wanted to see PM Ed so much !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
    Will it be an x for Walker or Cleggy boy.
    I was tempted to draw a phallus shaped object next to Clegg's name indicating a clear preference for one candidate.

    However the X went next to Ian Walker's name
    I never knew you wanted to see PM Ed so much !
    Clegg pushed him too far, I gather.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    tyson said:

    I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.

    Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.

    Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.

    I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.

    I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.

    Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
    Not so.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Presumably Cameron can sit tight on a minority until Miliband can prove he can command a majority in the house. That proof would require fomal c&s or coalition deals. I suspect the tories are trying to flush out the 'deal' that Miliband has publicly rejected out of hand.

    Exactly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
    Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
    If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
    Are you certain about that? :-)

    Most votes and most seats certainly looks like a victory to me. Would you rather have fewer votes and fewer seats? Of course that is nothing to do with commanding a majority in parliament. This was not what was claimed.
    On that basis the Tories won in 2010. Except they didn't.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
    Will it be an x for Walker or Cleggy boy.
    I was tempted to draw a phallus shaped object next to Clegg's name indicating a clear preference for one candidate.

    However the X went next to Ian Walker's name
    I never knew you wanted to see PM Ed so much !
    I do, the morning thread is all about Ed becoming PM, even if he loses the popular vote/is behind on seats.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Scott_P said:

    The whole "command a majority" is confused by the FTPA.

    Ed will not "command a majority", whatever happens, so why should he be PM instead of Cameron?

    And you don't need to command a majority to be PM anyway. Ever heard the term "minority Government"?

    I guess Cameron will dare his opponents to vote him out, which I expect they will do, sealing the Ed/Nicola pact with blood.

    What happens in a hung Parliament?

    The previous government might remain in position whilst there is a period of negotiation to build a coalition, or they might decide to try and govern with a minority of Members of Parliament.

    If the incumbent government is unable to command a majority and decides to resign, the leader of the largest opposition party may be invited to form a government and may do so either as a minority or in coalition with another party or parties.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    tyson said:

    I'm packing my bags and off to Blighty without my trusty laptop. I've finished my bets with a flourish of hedges. So as long as there isn't a formal coalition I'll be a happy punter. If there's a coalition I'll be a broke punter.

    Good luck everyone for next Thursday- I really mean that.

    Whatever happens anyway, it'll not be the end of the world. There'll be other elections.

    I'll be at the Victoria Pub in Beeston (Broxtowe) on Tuesday 5th May at 8.00.

    I'll be back in a week or so to dissect the results. And hopefully see a couple of you before then in Broxtowe.

    Tyson - the Broxtowe bun fight is exclusively for Labourites, or so Nick palmer seemed to indicate a few evenings ago - I thought it was as well to make that clear.
    There's going to be a few PB Tories there!
    To be fair any one to the right of Mao gets labelled as a PB Tory!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Sunday Express backing UKIP
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Poor argument Scott.

    Will you wish for all the hours back you spent pasteing tweets on here when he goes?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon said:

    surbiton said:

    Next PM after election:

    Ladbrokes

    EM 1.73 [ shortening ]
    DC 2.1 [ drifting ]


    DYOR

    EM still looks good value.
    IMO, Still a 4/6 shot - and if the polls don't shift it'll be below 1/2 by thursday.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    Are people ***really*** undecided at this stage or just don't want to say what they intend to do?

    It was only this morning that I finally decided which way I was going to vote.
    A tough choice since the Dry But Not Obsessed with the Gays and Europe Tory Party was not fielding a candidate in your constituency.
    I did think about standing as an Independent.
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207

    Constituency update
    THANET SOUTH
    ....
    1) The battle-and it is a battle-in Thanet S is very tight. My gut feel is that Farage might win but a lot of people-especially moderates, Lib Dems and women really don't want Farage. He might loose because of the anti vote rather than because of a positive vote for Mackinlay-the question is will the anti-vote actually turn out?
    ....
    3) Will Scobie of Labour is nowhere.
    Which increasingly raises a question in my mind;
    Ashcroft Polls have said for a long time that this is a 3 way marginal, well unless there are a huge number of shy Labour supporters, my experience on the doorstep doesn't relate to this.
    Taken further-a good friend is Scottish Labour through and through, yet in Thanet S he is voting Tory because "Sturgeon needs to be taken out and shot"
    I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that MANY past allegiances have broken down, that therefore "past voting" weighting is often meaningless and that therefore the opinion polls in this election should come with a severe health warning.
    ...
    This election is absolutely all over the place. ...

    I think you make good points about poll weighting and past allegiances. The polls, and there are a lot of them, are full of conflicts. Perhaps the polls are accurate - but in reflecting the conflicts of the electorate.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Danny565 said:

    Via Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times

    Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down

    Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.

    Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"

    Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”

    Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a major­ity, minority or another coali­tion with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"

    Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
    Dare others to vote him down? I doubt that will take long unless some Labour rebels decide not to vote against him. That's more likely than some think, don't forget how the likes of Reid and Blunkett were keen to sabotage a Lib/Lab deal in 2010. Different circumstances now but you can be sure that some Labour tribalists would want Ed out and a new leader who could win outright and what about the continuity Blairites who probably prefer Dave to Ed?

    As far as I understand the system there is no onus on the PM to resign? Did Major have to go so suddenly in '97 or could he have waited for a confidence motion? Obviously that would have been silly in his case but we're dealing with technicalities here.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    OllyT said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:

    kjohnw said:

    OllyT said:


    Opinium/Obs CON 35 LAB 34
    CRes/IoS CON 33 LAB 33
    Srvation/MoS CON 31 LAB 34
    YG/STimes CON 34 LAB 33


    So overall that's 2-1 on the polls to the Tories.

    If any of those polls are right Cameron will be out
    yes but if the polls are overstating labour by 2 - 3% and understating the tories by the same as happened in the Euros then Cam will come out largest party most votes plus there are still a heck of a lot of undecideds at the moment and what they do next thursday will cement the final result. I suspect they will stick with Nanny
    When you start really believing that all the polls are wrong and that you know better, despite all the sophisticated weighting for likelihood to vote, past voting record of "undecideds" etc, then you are really just hoping for the best without any solid evidence for doing so.
    I'm not so sure how much past voting record will apply as much this time in an election like this which has splintered so much with UKIP and SNP etc. But I do think the ex-tory element of UKIP could deliver Dave another couple of percent as the polls have indicated that a fair few when push comes to shove will hold their nose and vote blue to keep Ed out plus fear of SNP influencing England too. plus Online polling I think is understating Tories. it is a tight race but I think the tories will come ahead. Hopefully JackW is accurate this time too!!!
    I think the Tories will come ahead but not by enough to form the next government. Lets face it they will only have the largest number of seats courtesy of the SNP, who are a more left-of-centre block than the Labour MP's they will replacing.
    yes but the SNP aren't labour and largest party is the largest party, labour will quickly become very unpopular if they put together an anti-tory alliance of the losers in the publics eye, it could destroy labour for a generation, and as Ed has said he will do no deal with SNP it will be worse than Cleggs no tuition fee broken promise, political suicide for him
  • Taking the mood on PB tonight as wisdom, 10/11 on eicipm from Hills looks like free money. Or have I simply tuned in on bad night?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    The whole "command a majority" is confused by the FTPA.

    Ed will not "command a majority", whatever happens, so why should he be PM instead of Cameron?

    And you don't need to command a majority to be PM anyway. Ever heard the term "minority Government"?

    I guess Cameron will dare his opponents to vote him out, which I expect they will do, sealing the Ed/Nicola pact with blood.

    Yes, sounds like a long-term strategic move by Dave - lock Labour and the SNP into a deadly embrace then sit back and watch as Labour dissolves south of the border. We might be witnessing the first throes of the strange death of Labour England.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Push comes to shove I'm not sure Cameron would actually take things to a vote. He will know if he by the time one is needed if Labour have cobbled together enough votes to pass their own vote or not, what benefit does he or the Tory party get now or later by being defeated in a vote prior to Labour having their own vote go through?

    Duh. Because any minority pact that defeats him will then be crippled by the taint of illegitimacy.

    Cameron is quite right (logically, ethically and politically). If he gets most votes and seats on Thursday he should declare moral victory, and dare anyone else to vote him down.

    Of course he will easily be beaten by a larger caucus of desperate lefties, creepy Greens, mad Taffs and psycho-Nats, but the bad taste will linger forever, and England will feel deprived of its rightful government.

    Cue the obliteration of Labour in England in any ensuing election (probably coming within a year, after Holyrood). Cue 10-15 years of Tory majority government.
    absolutely agree
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Constitutionally-speaking, he cannot do that, and in certain circumstances would be obliged to resign immediately.
    Yep that is garbage. If he has most seats then he is entitled to try to form a Government but there are plenty of permutations (mostly involving the SNP) where he will fail and be out even if he had the most seats and votes. Stupid thing for them to claim.
    If he was certain he could not command the House he would be obliged to go immediately, although I suppose there is a bit of wriggle-room over what "certain" means.
    There's no automatic obligation to resign. He's only obliged to go if he loses a vote of No Confidence. And even then, only if someone else can form a government within 14 days (or else it goes to a new election)
    If he's certain he can't, he must resign. However such certainty is usually only apparent when the Opposition has won a majority, although it is possible to conceive of other circumstances.

    So he is entitled, provided there is genuine doubt, to meet the House to resolve the uncertainty.

    But be in no doubt, if he loses the VoC, Miliband will be summoned to be PM, whether he has 200, 250, or 300 seats.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Via Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times

    Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down

    Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.

    Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"

    Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”

    Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a major­ity, minority or another coali­tion with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"

    Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
    Dare others to vote him down? I doubt that will take long unless some Labour rebels decide not to vote against him. That's more likely than some think, don't forget how the likes of Reid and Blunkett were keen to sabotage a Lib/Lab deal in 2010. Different circumstances now but you can be sure that some Labour tribalists would want Ed out and a new leader who could win outright and what about the continuity Blairites who probably prefer Dave to Ed?
    Surely there's a difference between Labour allowing the Tories to stay in government, and actively voting to pass through Tory policies? They could effectively say "fine, you have most seats and have the right to stay in, but we'll wield our veto in parliament over any legislation we don't like".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Taking the mood on PB tonight as wisdom, 10/11 on eicipm from Hills looks like free money. Or have I simply tuned in on bad night?

    Value but not free money

    And I am mr EICIPM
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Via Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times

    Cameron allies say he'll try for a coalition if he falls short but if can't get coalition he'll dare others to vote him down

    Senior Tories tell Sunday Times say they expect to have 290 seats and lead by 20. Labour official said they expect to be 5-10 behind.

    Tory cabinet minister: “It’s a race to be the largest party. We will say: ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on',"

    Senior Tory: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly." Public won't "put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”

    Dave ally "He wants to stay in D.Street. Whether that’s a major­ity, minority or another coali­tion with Lib Dems will depend on arithmetic"

    Tbh, I don't see what would be so bad about this. Having to put up with them still in Downing St for a while longer doesn't matter all that much if they don't have the power to pass more spending cuts/privatisations/tax cuts for rich, etc.
    Dare others to vote him down? I doubt that will take long unless some Labour rebels decide not to vote against him. That's more likely than some think, don't forget how the likes of Reid and Blunkett were keen to sabotage a Lib/Lab deal in 2010. Different circumstances now but you can be sure that some Labour tribalists would want Ed out and a new leader who could win outright and what about the continuity Blairites who probably prefer Dave to Ed?
    Surely there's a difference between Labour allowing the Tories to stay in government, and actively voting to pass through Tory policies? They could effectively say "fine, you have most seats and have the right to stay in, but we'll wield our veto in parliament over any legislation we don't like".
    this is certainly proving to be the most messy and interesting election we had for a very long time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
    07 May 2015 General Election
    Nigel Farage Prime Minister After General Election 970 £0.10
    £96.90

    :D
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Taking the mood on PB tonight as wisdom, 10/11 on eicipm from Hills looks like free money. Or have I simply tuned in on bad night?

    Value but not free money

    And I am mr EICIPM
    Agreed - it's a great value bet, but there's no such thing as free money!

    [Insert betting disclaimer here]
This discussion has been closed.