"Postal voting started in mid-April. Over 5 million are expected to cast their ballot in this way and over the last week, local teams from all parties have attended postal vote opening sessions in each constituency. Although the parties are legally not allowed to tally votes at these events, they all do and the constituency teams then dutifully pass their field intelligence back to HQ. These are not opinion polls results or canvass returns but actual votes, hundreds of thousands of votes, from across Britain. Numbers have been flowing from each marginal to party strategists to give the most accurate picture of the current state of play.
Labour insiders familiar with the latest figures have told Uncut that the picture for Labour in marginal seats, where it is fighting the Tories, is almost uniformly grim. Seats that canvass returns had suggested were strong prospects for gains are much more finely balanced and those that were close are swinging heavily to the Tories."
Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.
Mike Smithson last seen departing for year long world tour with Mrs. OGH on his GE profits. He's heard murmuring at the quayside "That'll teach you JackW, that'll teach you".
Mike's next long holiday and my next stint as Guest Editor extraordinare begins at the end of June, which should be around the time of at least, one major leadership election, possibly four.
If Ed does pull it off I would look back to the 2012 US Presidential election when Republicans were fully expecting to win. Why? Well as former Bush speechwriter David Frum opined Republicans had been 'exploited fleeced and lied to by a conservative entertainment complex.'
I think the election is genuinely unpredictable and I don't buy the idea that because the poll of polls and election forecasts have been predicting roughly the same thing for two or three months that that is what will happen. The polls aren't consistent and they can be wrong. Labour at 100/1 to win a majority seems daft. Whatever the odds on the Tories doing so are probably also insane.
Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.
Mike Smithson last seen departing for year long world tour with Mrs. OGH on his GE profits. He's heard murmuring at the quayside "That'll teach you JackW, that'll teach you".
So when people get it the booth - they are breaking for Labour....
Unlucky Tories - you may think Dave was an ok PM - but he is a dreadful party leader...
Friday was the crucial day. After Miliband got a kicking on the Beeb Thursday night and showed his delusion in revealing he doesn't think Labour overspent, that was the "bigoted woman" moment.
The Tories needed to take to the airwaves and ram the message home that Labour haven't learnt their lessons and can't be trusted. Instead, there was nothing - just Cameron getting ruddy-faced at ASDA's HQ. The only soundbites the MSM took was some drivel about him not wanting a coalition but a full majority.
Here's a message for you Dave (and Crosby and Shapps and the shocking Tory campaign): No one gives a shit what you want, they give a shit about what impacts on their own lives. Stop talking about coalitions and politics etc, and instead talk about the issues.
The problem with CCHQ is it is run by a bunch of thick-as-pig-sh#t toffs with no life experience and who couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.
I am amazed at how little it featured. I said then that if it gained traction then things could be looking up for the Tories, yet they ignored it...
Always help when the BBC basically ignore it, actually defend Labour on this...while STILL even today managing to get "Tories Child Benefit Cut" into every news report.
If Ed does pull it off I would look back to the 2012 US Presidential election when Republicans were fully expecting to win. Why? Well as former Bush speechwriter David Frum opined Republicans had been 'exploited fleeced and lied to by a conservative entertainment complex.'
I think the election is genuinely unpredictable and I don't buy the idea that because the poll of polls and election forecasts have been predicting roughly the same thing for two or three months that that is what will happen. The polls aren't consistent and they can be wrong. Labour at 100/1 to win a majority seems daft. Whatever the odds on the Tories doing so are probably also insane.
David Frum's endorsement of Romney was the funniest things ever, to paraphrase: "Vote for Romney, he and the congressional Republicans won't actually do all the terrible things that they say they will do that I strongly disagree with"
Regarding the betting markets, you would have to wonder how much of the money is laid by readers of this fine blog. And then ponder how much the comments on here are affecting said market.
If 50% think the government is managing the economy well, the real question is why aren't the Tories ahead by more? With the sample figures looking very positive for them in this YouGov poll, you'd think this would be the case.
So in tonight's polls conservatives ahead in two, behind in one and tied in the other but it's all over for them
Yes. Because they need to be clearly ahead in almost all of them to have even a chance of forming the next government, unless the polls showing tied or Lab leads are just plain wrong.
My point is that their are colleagues on this forum who seem to believe it is all over, but it is very close in the polls and a surge of support either way on Thursday will change the outcome - no one can be certain what will happen in this amazing election
"Postal voting started in mid-April. Over 5 million are expected to cast their ballot in this way and over the last week, local teams from all parties have attended postal vote opening sessions in each constituency. Although the parties are legally not allowed to tally votes at these events, they all do and the constituency teams then dutifully pass their field intelligence back to HQ. These are not opinion polls results or canvass returns but actual votes, hundreds of thousands of votes, from across Britain. Numbers have been flowing from each marginal to party strategists to give the most accurate picture of the current state of play.
Labour insiders familiar with the latest figures have told Uncut that the picture for Labour in marginal seats, where it is fighting the Tories, is almost uniformly grim. Seats that canvass returns had suggested were strong prospects for gains are much more finely balanced and those that were close are swinging heavily to the Tories."
#yougov #sundaytimes Poll results equate to SNP on 50 seats, Lab 5, Libdem 3 and Con 1
If the LDs could hold 3 in Scotland, that would be remarkable indeed. Still a drubbing of epic proportions, but better than what they are privately expecting I imagine. The SNP will let us know there is no chance of that momentarily.
If 50% think the government is managing the economy well, the real question is why aren't the Tories ahead more. With the sample figures looking very positive for them in this YouGov poll, you'd think this would be the case.
Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
So in tonight's polls conservatives ahead in two, behind in one and tied in the other but it's all over for them
Yes. Because they need to be clearly ahead in almost all of them to have even a chance of forming the next government, unless the polls showing tied or Lab leads are just plain wrong.
My point is that their are colleagues on this forum who seem to believe it is all over, but it is very close in the polls and a surge of support either way on Thursday will change the outcome - no one can be certain what will happen in this amazing election
Perhaps you are right, but while the exact balance of the outcome and the rise and fall of various parties is pretty amazing for this election, what has not been amazing is there being dramatic shifts across the polling, and while that does not preclude the possibility that in actual votes there might be a surge in support for one or the other, the very stability of the polling despite everything that has happened, does make it hard to see where that surge might come from or why.
I'd probably look very silly to change my mind - it took months of massive SNP leads for me to change my 4+ year prediction of a Labour majority down to a Labour plurality for one thing - so stubborness is a factor, but I just cannot see where any surge would come from. All the cards have been played; either the polls have failed to pick up any movement (on average across the polling), or there will not be any movement to see.
Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
Thursday's polling will be pretty interesting too
I don't think there is any point considering the polls from now on. It is fair clear that the pollsters have it neck and neck and have done for weeks. Unless there is some mega revelation (and even then), I don't think anything will send the pollster needle one way or another.
The question is are the pollsters right. Only time will tell.*
* and no that isn't I think the polls are wrong. blah blah blah.
Interesting if true and maybe explains the Brand malarkey.
'The past week has been bracing and ugly for Labour strategists. The postal ballot intelligence has destroyed any residual sense that Labour is winning this campaign.
The priority now is to narrow the loss – the Tories are likely to be the largest party but if Labour can save enough Scottish seats, the result might just be close enough for Labour to cobble together a rainbow coalition to deny the Tories government, even from second place.
If Labour cannot save sufficient numbers of Scottish seats and results in England are as bad as the postal ballots suggest, then there is the real prospect of Labour entering the next parliament with fewer seats than in 2010.
So far tonight it's been a mixed picture that is marginally in favour of Labour, neck on neck on ComRes, Opinium, and Yougov but Survation move to a large Labour lead, especially on the constituency question.
Regarding the betting markets, you would have to wonder how much of the money is laid by readers of this fine blog. And then ponder how much the comments on here are affecting said market.
I've just done a furious bit of hedging, and moved a few odds on Betfair.
Disastrous Survation for Tories - might be worth getting on Lab seat majority fast
Lab maj is ridiculously long at 100.
Only of any potential value as a possible trading bet should the good burghers of Sunderland do their bit by giving Labour a stonking result in those first 3 or 4 results to be declared.
If 50% think the government is managing the economy well, the real question is why aren't the Tories ahead more. With the sample figures looking very positive for them in this YouGov poll, you'd think this would be the case.
We remain a classist nation.
No - sheeple still believe left-wing bull on NHS. It is Labour's only card.
Miliband 14% ahead of Jim "the Saviour" Murphy. In SCOTLAND.
That's a sharp improvement in Miliband's Scottish polling tho. May explain why Labour are saving 5 seats, and not being entirely wiped out (though as good as).
No, it's the exact same result with YouGov as last week indicating no movement.
Miliband is just as unpopular. What's happened is Murphy's score has plummeted.
So far tonight it's been a mixed picture that is marginally in favour of Labour, neck on neck on ComRes, Opinium, and Yougov but Survation move to a large Labour lead, especially on the constituency question.
Is it confirmed that we're getting an exit poll btw? It's going to be an utter nightmare to produce this year surely.
Not at all. To save money and probably futile effort they'll just pick the lowest predicted score for the parties, then roll a d10 for the big two and UKIP and a d8 for the LDs, plug those numbers in to a random seat predictor and call it an exit poll.For the SNP roll a d12 and subtract from 59.
Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
Thursday's polling will be pretty interesting too
There are polls on Thursday as well?! I didn't think they'd do polling for election day as well (unless you're talking about the exit poll).
It belatedly occurs that the various pessimists among the assorted pundits of the commentariat can salvage themselves afterwards by claiming to their fellow travellers that while they were wrong, their negativity actually spurred people on to vote for them out of fear of the other side winning, so they helped just as much in the end, if not more.
So far tonight it's been a mixed picture that is marginally in favour of Labour, neck on neck on ComRes, Opinium, and Yougov but Survation move to a large Labour lead, especially on the constituency question.
Nonsense on here about postal votes as it is only the outer envelope that is opened prior to election day so the political choice of the voter remains secret . A Labour majority is now closer tonight after the most recent polls.
Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
Thursday's polling will be pretty interesting too
There are polls on Thursday as well?! I didn't think they'd do polling for election day as well (unless you're talking about the exit poll).
So far tonight it's been a mixed picture that is marginally in favour of Labour, neck on neck on ComRes, Opinium, and Yougov but Survation move to a large Labour lead, especially on the constituency question.
Nonsense on here about postal votes as it is only the outer envelope that is opened prior to election day so the political choice of the voter remains secret . A Labour majority is now closer tonight after the most recent polls.
Is it confirmed that we're getting an exit poll btw? It's going to be an utter nightmare to produce this year surely.
Not at all. To save money and probably futile effort they'll just pick the lowest predicted score for the parties, then roll a d10 for the big two and UKIP and a d8 for the LDs, plug those numbers in to a random seat predictor and call it an exit poll.For the SNP roll a d12 and subtract from 59.
"Postal voting started in mid-April. Over 5 million are expected to cast their ballot in this way and over the last week, local teams from all parties have attended postal vote opening sessions in each constituency. Although the parties are legally not allowed to tally votes at these events, they all do and the constituency teams then dutifully pass their field intelligence back to HQ. These are not opinion polls results or canvass returns but actual votes, hundreds of thousands of votes, from across Britain. Numbers have been flowing from each marginal to party strategists to give the most accurate picture of the current state of play.
Labour insiders familiar with the latest figures have told Uncut that the picture for Labour in marginal seats, where it is fighting the Tories, is almost uniformly grim. Seats that canvass returns had suggested were strong prospects for gains are much more finely balanced and those that were close are swinging heavily to the Tories."
Given the relative closeness in the polling companies results, I think there may just be one unseen voting phenomenon happening on the day in terms of seats rather than vote share. I suspect vote share is pretty close to how it will end. Whether it is LDs doing significantly worse in terms of seats, SLAB doing better than worst case scenario or any of the other possibilities generally ignored I think it is impossible to tell. Going to be interesting though.
Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
Thursday's polling will be pretty interesting too
There are polls on Thursday as well?! I didn't think they'd do polling for election day as well (unless you're talking about the exit poll).
From the previous Innings they do not appear to be playing on a pitch that requires them to bat themselves in. As such their run rate looks like it will be very important. Failing to get anything on the board while always being at risk of losing a wicket is not a good sign. Neither side seems to have much chance of batting over 60 overs.
Leaving aside that is not how our system works, I am surprised the public at large would by a fairly clear margin even think that. Labour at least could in the right circumstances potentially have a majority on less of the vote (I think), would the public really get 'mad' in those circumstances, I doubt it. Admittedly it would be close in that situation.
Either way, it's one of those interesting results but the public won't agitate or anything should the party with fewer votes form a government. I wonder if tallying up the votes of all those in a governing arrangement would be deemed acceptable.
Comments
"Postal voting started in mid-April. Over 5 million are expected to cast their ballot in this way and over the last week, local teams from all parties have attended postal vote opening sessions in each constituency. Although the parties are legally not allowed to tally votes at these events, they all do and the constituency teams then dutifully pass their field intelligence back to HQ. These are not opinion polls results or canvass returns but actual votes, hundreds of thousands of votes, from across Britain. Numbers have been flowing from each marginal to party strategists to give the most accurate picture of the current state of play.
Labour insiders familiar with the latest figures have told Uncut that the picture for Labour in marginal seats, where it is fighting the Tories, is almost uniformly grim. Seats that canvass returns had suggested were strong prospects for gains are much more finely balanced and those that were close are swinging heavily to the Tories."
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683
I think the election is genuinely unpredictable and I don't buy the idea that because the poll of polls and election forecasts have been predicting roughly the same thing for two or three months that that is what will happen. The polls aren't consistent and they can be wrong. Labour at 100/1 to win a majority seems daft. Whatever the odds on the Tories doing so are probably also insane.
https://twitter.com/charleshymas/status/594600536348991489
Jack W = Trott.
And then ponder how much the comments on here are affecting said market.
https://twitter.com/charleshymas/status/594600971772284928
https://twitter.com/charleshymas/status/594601023563505664
#yougov #sundaytimes Poll results equate to SNP on 50 seats, Lab 5, Libdem 3 and Con 1
Good argument mate.
Again Labour 33....so it is the Tory / UKIP figure that is changing the lead.
Anyway good luck wherever you go.
IN SCOTLANDSHIRE!
I'd probably look very silly to change my mind - it took months of massive SNP leads for me to change my 4+ year prediction of a Labour majority down to a Labour plurality for one thing - so stubborness is a factor, but I just cannot see where any surge would come from. All the cards have been played; either the polls have failed to pick up any movement (on average across the polling), or there will not be any movement to see.
Not even an Irishman to blame this on.
The question is are the pollsters right. Only time will tell.*
* and no that isn't I think the polls are wrong. blah blah blah.
Interesting if true and maybe explains the Brand malarkey.
'The past week has been bracing and ugly for Labour strategists. The postal ballot intelligence has destroyed any residual sense that Labour is winning this campaign.
The priority now is to narrow the loss – the Tories are likely to be the largest party but if Labour can save enough Scottish seats, the result might just be close enough for Labour to cobble together a rainbow coalition to deny the Tories government, even from second place.
If Labour cannot save sufficient numbers of Scottish seats and results in England are as bad as the postal ballots suggest, then there is the real prospect of Labour entering the next parliament with fewer seats than in 2010.
My ARSE Has Never Endured The Trotts
Ahead with Opinium, YG and Comres (kind rounding).
Miliband is just as unpopular. What's happened is Murphy's score has plummeted.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov/ST: Cameron beats Miliband as best PM, 38-24%. 14 point gap is double 7% gap two weeks ago
Survation.
"chuckles"
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov/ST: Cameron won TV Question Time contest, 42% to Miliband on 26%. Clegg only 13%
John Curtice said it might be bollocks this time (well it not so many words)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/u-k-election-exit-pollster-says-his-poll-may-be-vague-or-wrong
Populus are also doing one, based on online respondents (I'm a participant in that one)
I also expect YouGov to do something similar for what they did in the indyref
A Labour majority is now closer tonight after the most recent polls.
Get the picture?
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/594605127488659457
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/29/labour-candidate-apologises-twitter-vote
300 seats looking possible if not probable at the moment...
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov/ST: 50% say govt managing economy well - first time it has reached 50% mark since June 2010
Going to be interesting though.
Who should rule?
Well, the Queen rules.
The government governs.
Either way, it's one of those interesting results but the public won't agitate or anything should the party with fewer votes form a government. I wonder if tallying up the votes of all those in a governing arrangement would be deemed acceptable.
So there are TWO Survations this weekend??
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/594405202763128832
losses to SNP ~ 30
gains from LD ~ 10
gains from Tories ~60
Very optimistic but it's possible if Labour have a good night.
Equally probable as Jack W's assessment in my opinion.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/594606746154446850
Con 246,Lab 298,LD 27 Lab/LD coalition?