politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend genera
Comments
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Down to Root to save England again.0
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IS this possible? Even to know this information?
"Postal voting started in mid-April. Over 5 million are expected to cast their ballot in this way and over the last week, local teams from all parties have attended postal vote opening sessions in each constituency. Although the parties are legally not allowed to tally votes at these events, they all do and the constituency teams then dutifully pass their field intelligence back to HQ. These are not opinion polls results or canvass returns but actual votes, hundreds of thousands of votes, from across Britain. Numbers have been flowing from each marginal to party strategists to give the most accurate picture of the current state of play.
Labour insiders familiar with the latest figures have told Uncut that the picture for Labour in marginal seats, where it is fighting the Tories, is almost uniformly grim. Seats that canvass returns had suggested were strong prospects for gains are much more finely balanced and those that were close are swinging heavily to the Tories."
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-196830 -
Mike's next long holiday and my next stint as Guest Editor extraordinare begins at the end of June, which should be around the time of at least, one major leadership election, possibly four.peter_from_putney said:
Mike Smithson last seen departing for year long world tour with Mrs. OGH on his GE profits. He's heard murmuring at the quayside "That'll teach you JackW, that'll teach you".Danny565 said:Survation Baxter'ed:
Labour 312
Tories 251
Lib Dems 15
UKIP 2
SNP 47
Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.0 -
If Ed does pull it off I would look back to the 2012 US Presidential election when Republicans were fully expecting to win. Why? Well as former Bush speechwriter David Frum opined Republicans had been 'exploited fleeced and lied to by a conservative entertainment complex.'
I think the election is genuinely unpredictable and I don't buy the idea that because the poll of polls and election forecasts have been predicting roughly the same thing for two or three months that that is what will happen. The polls aren't consistent and they can be wrong. Labour at 100/1 to win a majority seems daft. Whatever the odds on the Tories doing so are probably also insane.0 -
Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.0
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Um, GOOD online poll alert!Cosmic said:YouGov - that's more like it.
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phone polls have been showing the tories in a 2 - 6 percent leads, so its not all the polls that would be wrong if cam gets most seatsSeanT said:
It's not enough. The trend is now status quo, with a hint of Labour gaining.felix said:YouGov S Times poll
Con 34
Lab 33
Ukip 13
LD 8
GN 5
Lol
Six days out, it's not enough.
UNLESS THE POLLS ARE ALL WRONG....0 -
Do LibDems have deck sandals ??peter_from_putney said:
Mike Smithson last seen departing for year long world tour with Mrs. OGH on his GE profits. He's heard murmuring at the quayside "That'll teach you JackW, that'll teach you".Danny565 said:Survation Baxter'ed:
Labour 312
Tories 251
Lib Dems 15
UKIP 2
SNP 47
Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.
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The polls are correct AND I WILL TAKE THE ABOVE. Well done, kippers !! No need for any coalition. We will form a minority government.SeanT said:
It's not enough. The trend is now status quo, with a hint of Labour gaining.felix said:YouGov S Times poll
Con 34
Lab 33
Ukip 13
LD 8
GN 5
Lol
Six days out, it's not enough.
UNLESS THE POLLS ARE ALL WRONG....
Jack W = Trott.0 -
Always help when the BBC basically ignore it, actually defend Labour on this...while STILL even today managing to get "Tories Child Benefit Cut" into every news report.Chameleon said:
I am amazed at how little it featured. I said then that if it gained traction then things could be looking up for the Tories, yet they ignored it...KentRising said:
Friday was the crucial day. After Miliband got a kicking on the Beeb Thursday night and showed his delusion in revealing he doesn't think Labour overspent, that was the "bigoted woman" moment.IOS said:So when people get it the booth - they are breaking for Labour....
Unlucky Tories - you may think Dave was an ok PM - but he is a dreadful party leader...
The Tories needed to take to the airwaves and ram the message home that Labour haven't learnt their lessons and can't be trusted. Instead, there was nothing - just Cameron getting ruddy-faced at ASDA's HQ. The only soundbites the MSM took was some drivel about him not wanting a coalition but a full majority.
Here's a message for you Dave (and Crosby and Shapps and the shocking Tory campaign): No one gives a shit what you want, they give a shit about what impacts on their own lives. Stop talking about coalitions and politics etc, and instead talk about the issues.
The problem with CCHQ is it is run by a bunch of thick-as-pig-sh#t toffs with no life experience and who couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.
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David Frum's endorsement of Romney was the funniest things ever, to paraphrase: "Vote for Romney, he and the congressional Republicans won't actually do all the terrible things that they say they will do that I strongly disagree with"FrankBooth said:If Ed does pull it off I would look back to the 2012 US Presidential election when Republicans were fully expecting to win. Why? Well as former Bush speechwriter David Frum opined Republicans had been 'exploited fleeced and lied to by a conservative entertainment complex.'
I think the election is genuinely unpredictable and I don't buy the idea that because the poll of polls and election forecasts have been predicting roughly the same thing for two or three months that that is what will happen. The polls aren't consistent and they can be wrong. Labour at 100/1 to win a majority seems daft. Whatever the odds on the Tories doing so are probably also insane.0 -
Regarding the betting markets, you would have to wonder how much of the money is laid by readers of this fine blog.
And then ponder how much the comments on here are affecting said market.0 -
SNP collapse!!
#yougov #sundaytimes Poll results equate to SNP on 50 seats, Lab 5, Libdem 3 and Con 10 -
If 50% think the government is managing the economy well, the real question is why aren't the Tories ahead by more? With the sample figures looking very positive for them in this YouGov poll, you'd think this would be the case.0
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John O
Good argument mate.0 -
England 18/3!0
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My point is that their are colleagues on this forum who seem to believe it is all over, but it is very close in the polls and a surge of support either way on Thursday will change the outcome - no one can be certain what will happen in this amazing electionkle4 said:
Yes. Because they need to be clearly ahead in almost all of them to have even a chance of forming the next government, unless the polls showing tied or Lab leads are just plain wrong.Big_G_NorthWales said:So in tonight's polls conservatives ahead in two, behind in one and tied in the other but it's all over for them
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As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)Scrapheap_as_was said:English batting = Sat night polling.
English bowlers = Tories on thursday.0 -
Double bluff? Nothing gets your vote out more than saying the other guys are in danger of winning.Moses_ said:IS this possible? Even to know this information?
"Postal voting started in mid-April. Over 5 million are expected to cast their ballot in this way and over the last week, local teams from all parties have attended postal vote opening sessions in each constituency. Although the parties are legally not allowed to tally votes at these events, they all do and the constituency teams then dutifully pass their field intelligence back to HQ. These are not opinion polls results or canvass returns but actual votes, hundreds of thousands of votes, from across Britain. Numbers have been flowing from each marginal to party strategists to give the most accurate picture of the current state of play.
Labour insiders familiar with the latest figures have told Uncut that the picture for Labour in marginal seats, where it is fighting the Tories, is almost uniformly grim. Seats that canvass returns had suggested were strong prospects for gains are much more finely balanced and those that were close are swinging heavily to the Tories."
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-196830 -
Miliband 14% ahead of Jim "the Saviour" Murphy. In SCOTLAND.TheScreamingEagles said:
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If the LDs could hold 3 in Scotland, that would be remarkable indeed. Still a drubbing of epic proportions, but better than what they are privately expecting I imagine. The SNP will let us know there is no chance of that momentarily.bigjohnowls said:SNP collapse!!
#yougov #sundaytimes Poll results equate to SNP on 50 seats, Lab 5, Libdem 3 and Con 10 -
And Tories ahead with YouGov....
Again Labour 33....so it is the Tory / UKIP figure that is changing the lead.0 -
Yebbut who's Jo Blackwood; another alter ego?SeanT said:I don't care anyway. I'm emigrating to America.
Why?
THE ICE TWINS is named by amazon.com as one of the best thrillers and mysteries for May.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/594591552548265984
And...
It's also named by iTunes as one of the best books of May.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/593137705002864641
California, I'm ready to roll.
Anyway good luck wherever you go.
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Can I pay for your ticket?SeanT said:I don't care anyway. I'm emigrating to America.
Why?
THE ICE TWINS is named by amazon.com as one of the best thrillers and mysteries for May.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/594591552548265984
And...
It's also named by iTunes as one of the best books of May.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/593137705002864641
California, I'm ready to roll.
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I like that!kle4 said:
That should mean it has got the economy in good enough shape that it can be safely handed over to Labour - The Electorate.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Murphy behind Dave, yes the Scottish Labour leader is trailing the Eton Educated, Tory Posh Boy, IN SCOTLANDSHIRE!Danny565 said:
IN SCOTLANDSHIRE!
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We remain a classist nation.The_Apocalypse said:If 50% think the government is managing the economy well, the real question is why aren't the Tories ahead more. With the sample figures looking very positive for them in this YouGov poll, you'd think this would be the case.
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I'd be interested in Kellner's rationale for predicting the Lib Dems will win 32 seats.0
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Thursday's polling will be pretty interesting tooThe_Apocalypse said:Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
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Vote UKIp get Milliband ( and the SNP) then?FrancisUrquhart said:And Tories ahead with YouGov....
Again Labour 33....so it is the Tory / UKIP figure that is changing the lead.
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Oh cock, this means I need to revise the morning thread.0
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Perhaps you are right, but while the exact balance of the outcome and the rise and fall of various parties is pretty amazing for this election, what has not been amazing is there being dramatic shifts across the polling, and while that does not preclude the possibility that in actual votes there might be a surge in support for one or the other, the very stability of the polling despite everything that has happened, does make it hard to see where that surge might come from or why.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My point is that their are colleagues on this forum who seem to believe it is all over, but it is very close in the polls and a surge of support either way on Thursday will change the outcome - no one can be certain what will happen in this amazing electionkle4 said:
Yes. Because they need to be clearly ahead in almost all of them to have even a chance of forming the next government, unless the polls showing tied or Lab leads are just plain wrong.Big_G_NorthWales said:So in tonight's polls conservatives ahead in two, behind in one and tied in the other but it's all over for them
I'd probably look very silly to change my mind - it took months of massive SNP leads for me to change my 4+ year prediction of a Labour majority down to a Labour plurality for one thing - so stubborness is a factor, but I just cannot see where any surge would come from. All the cards have been played; either the polls have failed to pick up any movement (on average across the polling), or there will not be any movement to see.0 -
It was Thursday when the Tories lost. Ed's TOTAL REJECTION of the SNP wot won it !TheScreamingEagles said:
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)Scrapheap_as_was said:English batting = Sat night polling.
English bowlers = Tories on thursday.0 -
Last three overs England 1/1
Not even an Irishman to blame this on.0 -
Will buy Stokes runs if they are around 29, fancy him hereDavidL said:Down to Root to save England again.
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I don't think there is any point considering the polls from now on. It is fair clear that the pollsters have it neck and neck and have done for weeks. Unless there is some mega revelation (and even then), I don't think anything will send the pollster needle one way or another.Stereotomy said:
Thursday's polling will be pretty interesting tooThe_Apocalypse said:Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
The question is are the pollsters right. Only time will tell.*
* and no that isn't I think the polls are wrong. blah blah blah.0 -
@Moses
Interesting if true and maybe explains the Brand malarkey.
'The past week has been bracing and ugly for Labour strategists. The postal ballot intelligence has destroyed any residual sense that Labour is winning this campaign.
The priority now is to narrow the loss – the Tories are likely to be the largest party but if Labour can save enough Scottish seats, the result might just be close enough for Labour to cobble together a rainbow coalition to deny the Tories government, even from second place.
If Labour cannot save sufficient numbers of Scottish seats and results in England are as bad as the postal ballots suggest, then there is the real prospect of Labour entering the next parliament with fewer seats than in 2010.0 -
Looking forward to JackW's next prediction. Will be amusing to see if he keeps the Tories above 300.0
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So far tonight it's been a mixed picture that is marginally in favour of Labour, neck on neck on ComRes, Opinium, and Yougov but Survation move to a large Labour lead, especially on the constituency question.0
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Cameron now more popular than #creepyjimTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Do you seriously believe this or is this some impressive trolling?surbiton said:
It was Thursday when the Tories lost. Ed's TOTAL REJECTION of the SNP wot won it !TheScreamingEagles said:
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)Scrapheap_as_was said:English batting = Sat night polling.
English bowlers = Tories on thursday.0 -
Confound it man ....surbiton said:
The polls are correct AND I WILL TAKE THE ABOVE. Well done, kippers !! No need for any coalition. We will form a minority government.SeanT said:
It's not enough. The trend is now status quo, with a hint of Labour gaining.felix said:YouGov S Times poll
Con 34
Lab 33
Ukip 13
LD 8
GN 5
Lol
Six days out, it's not enough.
UNLESS THE POLLS ARE ALL WRONG....
Jack W = Trott.
My ARSE Has Never Endured The Trotts
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Is it confirmed that we're getting an exit poll btw? It's going to be an utter nightmare to produce this year surely.0
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So, Tory vote share win by 4 remains probable.
Ahead with Opinium, YG and Comres (kind rounding).
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Only of any potential value as a possible trading bet should the good burghers of Sunderland do their bit by giving Labour a stonking result in those first 3 or 4 results to be declared.foxinsoxuk said:
Lab maj is ridiculously long at 100.RobC said:Disastrous Survation for Tories - might be worth getting on Lab seat majority fast
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Not much of a Test cricket aficionado I see.Dair said:Last three overs England 1/1
Not even an Irishman to blame this on.
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No - sheeple still believe left-wing bull on NHS. It is Labour's only card.initforthemoney said:
We remain a classist nation.The_Apocalypse said:If 50% think the government is managing the economy well, the real question is why aren't the Tories ahead more. With the sample figures looking very positive for them in this YouGov poll, you'd think this would be the case.
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Cameron ahead of Murphy?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Sure there is something you don't like about all the polls?chestnut said:So, Tory vote share win by 4 remains probable.
Ahead with Opinium, YG and Comres (kind rounding).0 -
They need to be comfortably ahead for DC to remain as PM (a 3%+ lead) and that is not showing in ALL 4 polls tonight. Just saying...Big_G_NorthWales said:So in tonight's polls conservatives ahead in two, behind in one and tied in the other but it's all over for them
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No, it's the exact same result with YouGov as last week indicating no movement.SeanT said:
That's a sharp improvement in Miliband's Scottish polling tho. May explain why Labour are saving 5 seats, and not being entirely wiped out (though as good as).Danny565 said:
Miliband is just as unpopular. What's happened is Murphy's score has plummeted.0 -
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov/ST: Cameron beats Miliband as best PM, 38-24%. 14 point gap is double 7% gap two weeks ago
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By neck and neck, you mean Tory leads?Speedy said:So far tonight it's been a mixed picture that is marginally in favour of Labour, neck on neck on ComRes, Opinium, and Yougov but Survation move to a large Labour lead, especially on the constituency question.
Survation.
"chuckles"
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Apparently so. BBC, ITV, and SKY all pooling resources.Danny565 said:Is it confirmed that we're getting an exit poll btw? It's going to be an utter nightmare to produce this year surely.
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Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov/ST: Cameron won TV Question Time contest, 42% to Miliband on 26%. Clegg only 13%
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A good question. Amazes me that someone who posts so frequently does not understand how punctation is used.Philip_Thompson said:
Do you seriously believe this or is this some impressive trolling?surbiton said:
It was Thursday when the Tories lost. Ed's TOTAL REJECTION of the SNP wot won it !TheScreamingEagles said:
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)Scrapheap_as_was said:English batting = Sat night polling.
English bowlers = Tories on thursday.
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Not at all. To save money and probably futile effort they'll just pick the lowest predicted score for the parties, then roll a d10 for the big two and UKIP and a d8 for the LDs, plug those numbers in to a random seat predictor and call it an exit poll.For the SNP roll a d12 and subtract from 59.Danny565 said:Is it confirmed that we're getting an exit poll btw? It's going to be an utter nightmare to produce this year surely.
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So Cameron best PM, best leader, best person to do x,y and z...but when it comes to voting for his party...the public say no thanks.Tykejohnno said:
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov/ST: Cameron beats Miliband as best PM, 38-24%. 14 point gap is double 7% gap two weeks ago0 -
There are polls on Thursday as well?! I didn't think they'd do polling for election day as well (unless you're talking about the exit poll).Stereotomy said:
Thursday's polling will be pretty interesting tooThe_Apocalypse said:Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
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It belatedly occurs that the various pessimists among the assorted pundits of the commentariat can salvage themselves afterwards by claiming to their fellow travellers that while they were wrong, their negativity actually spurred people on to vote for them out of fear of the other side winning, so they helped just as much in the end, if not more.0
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We're getting at least two exit polls, well the traditional one for the broadcasters conducted by Ipsos Mori.Danny565 said:Is it confirmed that we're getting an exit poll btw? It's going to be an utter nightmare to produce this year surely.
John Curtice said it might be bollocks this time (well it not so many words)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/u-k-election-exit-pollster-says-his-poll-may-be-vague-or-wrong
Populus are also doing one, based on online respondents (I'm a participant in that one)
I also expect YouGov to do something similar for what they did in the indyref0 -
You are turning into Brown.chestnut said:
By neck and neck, you mean Tory leads?Speedy said:So far tonight it's been a mixed picture that is marginally in favour of Labour, neck on neck on ComRes, Opinium, and Yougov but Survation move to a large Labour lead, especially on the constituency question.
Survation.
"chuckles"0 -
Nonsense on here about postal votes as it is only the outer envelope that is opened prior to election day so the political choice of the voter remains secret .
A Labour majority is now closer tonight after the most recent polls.0 -
Toxic Tories aka the Nasty Party aka eat babies...FrancisUrquhart said:
So Cameron best PM, best leader, best person to do x,y and z...but when it comes to voting for his party...the public say no thanks.Tykejohnno said:
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov/ST: Cameron beats Miliband as best PM, 38-24%. 14 point gap is double 7% gap two weeks ago
Get the picture?0 -
I imagine last polls will be released on Wed.The_Apocalypse said:
There are polls on Thursday as well?! I didn't think they'd do polling for election day as well (unless you're talking about the exit poll).Stereotomy said:
Thursday's polling will be pretty interesting tooThe_Apocalypse said:Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
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The problem with the Exit Polls now is that you don't know where the marginals will be this time due to the SNP and UKIP.TheScreamingEagles said:
We're getting at least two exit polls, well the traditional one for the broadcasters conducted by Ipsos Mori.Danny565 said:Is it confirmed that we're getting an exit poll btw? It's going to be an utter nightmare to produce this year surely.
John Curtice said it might be bollocks this time (well it not so many words)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/u-k-election-exit-pollster-says-his-poll-may-be-vague-or-wrong
Populus are also doing one, based on online respondents (I'm a participant in that one)
I also expect YouGov to do something similar for what they did in the indyref0 -
I'm turning into Gordon Brown?Speedy said:
You are turning into Brown.chestnut said:
By neck and neck, you mean Tory leads?Speedy said:So far tonight it's been a mixed picture that is marginally in favour of Labour, neck on neck on ComRes, Opinium, and Yougov but Survation move to a large Labour lead, especially on the constituency question.
Survation.
"chuckles"
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I think this is Mike's way of hinting he wants me to do the morning thread on AV/electoral reform
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/5946051274886594570 -
So how did this happen then?roserees64 said:Nonsense on here about postal votes as it is only the outer envelope that is opened prior to election day so the political choice of the voter remains secret .
A Labour majority is now closer tonight after the most recent polls.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/29/labour-candidate-apologises-twitter-vote0 -
I'd just got with a d4 for the SNP.kle4 said:
Not at all. To save money and probably futile effort they'll just pick the lowest predicted score for the parties, then roll a d10 for the big two and UKIP and a d8 for the LDs, plug those numbers in to a random seat predictor and call it an exit poll.For the SNP roll a d12 and subtract from 59.Danny565 said:Is it confirmed that we're getting an exit poll btw? It's going to be an utter nightmare to produce this year surely.
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It maybe the case but if Labour wins 300 or so seats the SNP question will be short-circuited out...SeanT said:
I wonder if that is the case. If it is, it means Miliband won on a TOTAL LIE, and he will suffer for it, in time.surbiton said:
It was Thursday when the Tories lost. Ed's TOTAL REJECTION of the SNP wot won it !TheScreamingEagles said:
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)Scrapheap_as_was said:English batting = Sat night polling.
English bowlers = Tories on thursday.
300 seats looking possible if not probable at the moment...0 -
It seems that way.FrancisUrquhart said:
So Cameron best PM, best leader, best person to do x,y and z...but when it comes to voting for his party...the public say no thanks.Tykejohnno said:
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov/ST: Cameron beats Miliband as best PM, 38-24%. 14 point gap is double 7% gap two weeks ago
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IOS said:
Looking forward to JackW's next prediction. Will be amusing to see if he keeps the Tories above 300.
If it a bluff then they are spreading the word far and war; bit like the Colditz tunnellers with their muck spreading.KentRising said:
Double bluff? Nothing gets your vote out more than saying the other guys are in danger of winning.Moses_ said:IS this possible? Even to know this information?
"Postal voting started in mid-April. Over 5 million are expected to cast their ballot in this way and over the last week, local teams from all parties have attended postal vote opening sessions in each constituency. Although the parties are legally not allowed to tally votes at these events, they all do and the constituency teams then dutifully pass their field intelligence back to HQ. These are not opinion polls results or canvass returns but actual votes, hundreds of thousands of votes, from across Britain. Numbers have been flowing from each marginal to party strategists to give the most accurate picture of the current state of play.
Labour insiders familiar with the latest figures have told Uncut that the picture for Labour in marginal seats, where it is fighting the Tories, is almost uniformly grim. Seats that canvass returns had suggested were strong prospects for gains are much more finely balanced and those that were close are swinging heavily to the Tories."
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683
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We all agree with that, apart from MP's if they form the majority of seats instead of votes.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
And -Tykejohnno said:
It seems that way.FrancisUrquhart said:
So Cameron best PM, best leader, best person to do x,y and z...but when it comes to voting for his party...the public say no thanks.Tykejohnno said:
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov/ST: Cameron beats Miliband as best PM, 38-24%. 14 point gap is double 7% gap two weeks ago
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov/ST: 50% say govt managing economy well - first time it has reached 50% mark since June 2010
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I look forward to the Yes vote in the referendum on PR!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Given the relative closeness in the polling companies results, I think there may just be one unseen voting phenomenon happening on the day in terms of seats rather than vote share. I suspect vote share is pretty close to how it will end. Whether it is LDs doing significantly worse in terms of seats, SLAB doing better than worst case scenario or any of the other possibilities generally ignored I think it is impossible to tell.
Going to be interesting though.0 -
Time to turn your sarcasm-detector on, old chap.The_Apocalypse said:
There are polls on Thursday as well?! I didn't think they'd do polling for election day as well (unless you're talking about the exit poll).Stereotomy said:
Thursday's polling will be pretty interesting tooThe_Apocalypse said:Good polls for Labour today - I'd had a feeling YG would produce a 1% Conservative lead, though that won't be enough for them. I think Labour will take these polls, it shows the parties are still pretty much neck and neck, and while Survation (IMO) is something of an outlier, it's still encouraging for Labour. What Labour don't want is to see more 4%, 5%, 6%+ Tory leads, so Tuesday and Wednesday''s polling (and if there are any polls on Sunday) will be interesting in that regard.
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All the stuff I am getting back from canvassers agrees with Jack. But then we are mining the same data and if it bollocks then we blues are stuffed.0
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But given Scotland, that would mean Labour making 92 gains from Con and Lib Dems.murali_s said:
It maybe the case but if Labour wins 300 or so seats the SNP question will be short-circuited out...SeanT said:
I wonder if that is the case. If it is, it means Miliband won on a TOTAL LIE, and he will suffer for it, in time.surbiton said:
It was Thursday when the Tories lost. Ed's TOTAL REJECTION of the SNP wot won it !TheScreamingEagles said:
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)Scrapheap_as_was said:English batting = Sat night polling.
English bowlers = Tories on thursday.
300 seats looking possible if not probable at the moment...0 -
From the previous Innings they do not appear to be playing on a pitch that requires them to bat themselves in. As such their run rate looks like it will be very important. Failing to get anything on the board while always being at risk of losing a wicket is not a good sign. Neither side seems to have much chance of batting over 60 overs.Stark_Dawning said:
Not much of a Test cricket aficionado I see.Dair said:Last three overs England 1/1
Not even an Irishman to blame this on.0 -
Just wondering...when are the Lib Dem starting their GE campaign?0
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This gets on my t#ts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Who should rule?
Well, the Queen rules.
The government governs.
0 -
Leaving aside that is not how our system works, I am surprised the public at large would by a fairly clear margin even think that. Labour at least could in the right circumstances potentially have a majority on less of the vote (I think), would the public really get 'mad' in those circumstances, I doubt it. Admittedly it would be close in that situation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Either way, it's one of those interesting results but the public won't agitate or anything should the party with fewer votes form a government. I wonder if tallying up the votes of all those in a governing arrangement would be deemed acceptable.
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Even I'm getting polling overload here
So there are TWO Survations this weekend??0 -
Except for Dewsbury that is.TheScreamingEagles said:
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)Scrapheap_as_was said:English batting = Sat night polling.
English bowlers = Tories on thursday.0 -
I wonder what inspired Douglas to talk about Shy Kippers?
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/5944052027631288320 -
I'm doing the Populus one as well TSE. We will cancel each other out in vote numbers. LOLTheScreamingEagles said:
We're getting at least two exit polls, well the traditional one for the broadcasters conducted by Ipsos Mori.Danny565 said:Is it confirmed that we're getting an exit poll btw? It's going to be an utter nightmare to produce this year surely.
John Curtice said it might be bollocks this time (well it not so many words)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/u-k-election-exit-pollster-says-his-poll-may-be-vague-or-wrong
Populus are also doing one, based on online respondents (I'm a participant in that one)
I also expect YouGov to do something similar for what they did in the indyref0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
But given Scotland, that would mean Labour making 92 gains from Con and Lib Dems.murali_s said:
It maybe the case but if Labour wins 300 or so seats the SNP question will be short-circuited out...SeanT said:
I wonder if that is the case. If it is, it means Miliband won on a TOTAL LIE, and he will suffer for it, in time.surbiton said:
It was Thursday when the Tories lost. Ed's TOTAL REJECTION of the SNP wot won it !TheScreamingEagles said:
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)Scrapheap_as_was said:English batting = Sat night polling.
English bowlers = Tories on thursday.
300 seats looking possible if not probable at the moment...
OK - I know I'm being optimistic but here's as assessment on how Labour can get to 300...TheScreamingEagles said:
But given Scotland, that would mean Labour making 92 gains from Con and Lib Dems.murali_s said:
It maybe the case but if Labour wins 300 or so seats the SNP question will be short-circuited out...SeanT said:
I wonder if that is the case. If it is, it means Miliband won on a TOTAL LIE, and he will suffer for it, in time.surbiton said:
It was Thursday when the Tories lost. Ed's TOTAL REJECTION of the SNP wot won it !TheScreamingEagles said:
As on Thursday, just like tonight, Yorkshire will save us (I hope)Scrapheap_as_was said:English batting = Sat night polling.
English bowlers = Tories on thursday.
300 seats looking possible if not probable at the moment...
losses to SNP ~ 30
gains from LD ~ 10
gains from Tories ~60
Very optimistic but it's possible if Labour have a good night.
Equally probable as Jack W's assessment in my opinion.
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This is so going into the morning thread
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/5946067461544468500 -
running the Survation con 29,Lab 33,LD 9,UKIP 16 gives on UNS
Con 246,Lab 298,LD 27 Lab/LD coalition?0
