politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend genera
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UKIP rising........... again.dr_spyn said:Survation. @Survation 36s36 seconds ago
HEADLINE VI Survation/MoS LAB 34%; CON 31%; UKIP 17%; LD 8%; SNP 5%; GRE 4%; OTH 1% Tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/mosfgep2128_020515.pdf …
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Ignore.0
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Go away troll.mikehunt said:Interesting post here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/legaladvice/comments/34m9yv/my_senile_grandpa_placed_a_30000_bet_is_there/
Basically, his grandad placed £30k on the Tories to win the G.E.. Grandson now claiming the bet is void because senile.
Edit: I wrote a post earlier about giving new posters the benefit of the doubt before calling them trolls. But you're 100% troll.
Try harder next time
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RobD
"Clearly an outlier....
"
They didn't contact enough people0 -
Welcome, Mr Hunt. Your parents could have been kinder naming you.mikehunt said:Interesting post here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/legaladvice/comments/34m9yv/my_senile_grandpa_placed_a_30000_bet_is_there/
Basically, his grandad placed £30k on the Tories to win the G.E.. Grandson now claiming the bet is void because senile.0 -
Labour Uncut is a completely unreliable source of information, one massive shoulder chip.YBarddCwsc said:Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.
However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,
"The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.
This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”
So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.
Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?
However there is some evidence that the Labour party have been putting serious effort into Scotland. There were some figures out the other day breaking down the number of contacts made by the Labour party on a regional basis. Unsurprisingly in first place was London (nearly 600,000) closely followed by the North West. This makes perfect sense as this is where the largest number of members are. However Scotland came in third, which was surprising given both the political situation and also the much smaller membership base.
I am not sure anyone really knows how this will all pan out, the national polls clearly show the SNP in the ascendency backed up by the Ashcroft polls, however there is a nagging doubt that things might not quite turn out this way. Dont forget all the predictions that the referendum was too close to call when in fact it was no such thing. So yes it is possible that Labour will do better in Scotland than conventional wisdom suggests (not that this makes any difference to the maths in the HoC though it might make a difference to the "narrative")
As to the postal vote rumours, Andrea's post from earlier was instructive. It is also worth pointing out that postal voters tend to be older (yes I know not all) and older voters tend to be more tory inclined. Pub gossip, is just that, gossip. A few days ago there was a rumour that the tories believed they were loosing Battersea, perhaps they will, however the Ashcroft poll hardly found evidence of that.
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It is the Tory vote that appears to be difference with all these pollsters. Labour is fairly solid 33-34...Tories is somewhere between 35 or 31 and that appears to be tied to UKIP vote share.
I think this is the big unknown, pollsters have had UKIP as low as 7 and as high as (I think) 19.-1 -
Sehr feierlich und sehr langsam...0
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Jack
Another rubbish argument. Just because some over excited Tories expected a majority doesn't undermine my judgement.
Oh and a Lab 3 point lead.... BOOM!0 -
Yes, they do the full monty - in and out, you can see who voted for who. Although totally illegal the Labour chap next to me was discussing the outcome. With May day holidays, he claims more Tories have postal voted so it doesn't matter if they were further ahead than expected. I couldn't possibly comment.RobD said:
They open the outer envelope, but not the inner one, surely?DeClare said:
The postal votes are opened every day and put into bundles (of 50 I think) they are counted face up and any candidate or party agent is allowed to go along and witness this, the same is done at the main count, it's called verification, so that they can check that the number of ballots received is the same as the total number of papers issued,
They are not tallied at this stage however, they are put into sealed pouches and when the non postal votes have been verified the pouches of postal votes are then opened, added to the bundles of other votes and the process of tallying the numbers of votes cast for each candidate can begin.
To answer the other point, I think that the Town Hall is erring on the side of caution and that votes received up to Thursday will still be counted.
It used to be the case that if you had not posted your vote, then you could hand it in to any polling station in the constituency on polling day, I don't know if that's still true because they check the signatures very carefully nowadays to prevent possible fraud.
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Failure to explain £12 BN welfare cuts is a disaster for Dave IMO0
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The Sun ....foxinsoxuk said:
Could you remind us of what came out of your eve of poll ARSE in 2010?JackW said:
ARSE deniers like you were spewing the same guff in 2010 and yet ....IOS said:Jack
Thats a nonsense argument. And whats more you know it. It comes down to whether you believe that parties know what is going on reasonably well. Fact is they do. You can see from where the Tories are spending their money they don't believe your projections.
You started your prediction under the assumption the polls would move. They haven't. Why? Because the people of the UK today are not like the people of the UK you used to know.
The country has changed. Unfortunately your perception hasn't.
What won it of course ....
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Survation Baxter'ed:
Labour 312
Tories 251
Lib Dems 15
UKIP 2
SNP 47
Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.0 -
So we're looking at a result anywhere from, say, a Lab +3 lead or a Con +3 lead. Those poor volunteers working so diligently, what has it all been for when we're exactly where we started, more or less?
Only question now is if Ed can put together his government without having to field questions about 'legitimacy' about not having the most seats/votes.0 -
TheScreamingEagles
Ah so SLAB are only 15-17 poer cent behind. Really what a triumph!
There will be more proper Scottish polls starting with the Sunday Times tomorrow which will show that SLAB are being deservedly laced, good and proper.0 -
In all honesty, I'd prefer a lib lab coalitionDanny565 said:Survation Baxter'ed:
Labour 312
Tories 251
Lib Dems 15
UKIP 2
SNP 47
Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.0 -
I really doubt it. Neither side is explaining much of anything, I don't see why failure to answer on that point would worry people that much. It's more just that as it has been for months if not years, people do not find this government so competent or likable that they will reward the Tories, even if they are not exactly enthused by Labour either.bigjohnowls said:Failure to explain £12 BN welfare cuts is a disaster for Dave IMO
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Silly cybernat, you failed to understand the point I was making.scotslass said:TheScreamingEagles
Ah so SLAB are only 15-17 poer cent behind. Really what a triumph!
There will be more proper Scottish polls starting with the Sunday Times tomorrow which will show that SLAB are being deservedly laced, good and proper.0 -
SeanT
Massive massive difference. Whereas the SNP are doing us in. They at least have the decency to win the seats themselves, rather than let the Tories in. I would rather we won them but in the race to get rid of Cam - it isn't overly important if its SNP or Lab.0 -
Or perhaps it was a full moon?JackW said:
The Sun ....foxinsoxuk said:
Could you remind us of what came out of your eve of poll ARSE in 2010?JackW said:
ARSE deniers like you were spewing the same guff in 2010 and yet ....IOS said:Jack
Thats a nonsense argument. And whats more you know it. It comes down to whether you believe that parties know what is going on reasonably well. Fact is they do. You can see from where the Tories are spending their money they don't believe your projections.
You started your prediction under the assumption the polls would move. They haven't. Why? Because the people of the UK today are not like the people of the UK you used to know.
The country has changed. Unfortunately your perception hasn't.
What won it of course ....0 -
I haven't heard of any more purely Scottish polls to come. What is your source?scotslass said:TheScreamingEagles
Ah so SLAB are only 15-17 poer cent behind. Really what a triumph!
There will be more proper Scottish polls starting with the Sunday Times tomorrow which will show that SLAB are being deservedly laced, good and proper.0 -
Actually there is another question besides whether Lab have most votes/seats - If Cameron can get close to the 36 he got last time and still not be PM, he will in some ways be regarded as unlucky, as that would be an impressive hold of support, But if it is significantly lower than that, even if Labour has not massively improved their own position, his personal input into the failure will be easier to argue.0
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To trolls, yes.0
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Writing on the wall for the blues, methinks. Bad set of polls for them, these. No momentum from the scare tactics regarding the SNP, nor Dave's performance on the Beeb, and Mili's 'Overspend-gate' didn't happen.0
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I'm starting to feel a little foolish closing out my Lab Most Seats position for a loss.0
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Good polls today for LAB.
Where is DH streaking.
Get on LAB most seats now
Price will fall was 5.1 now 4.9 YG EICIPM still to come0 -
Disastrous Survation for Tories - might be worth getting on Lab seat majority fast0
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Laughable statement.bigjohnowls said:Failure to explain £12 BN welfare cuts is a disaster for Dave IMO
A real disaster is Ed being so deluded he didn't think the previous government overspent.0 -
Nigel
Not making an impact on the polls is it?0 -
No more time to gather momentum either. Any good polls for the Tories now just add to the overall impression of it being very tight, rather than reinforcing a sense that things are moving in their direction. I think I'll move my personal prediction of a Cameron premiership down from 10-15% to 5% (being my entirely unscientific calculation of the chances of everything that is needed for a Tory win happening exactly as they need).KentRising said:Writing on the wall for the blues, methinks. Bad set of polls for them, these. No momentum from the scare tactics regarding the SNP, nor Dave's performance on the Beeb, and Mili's 'Overspend-gate' didn't happen.
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UKIP only 11% short of the Tories in that Survation ballot thing!0
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Which may drive wavering kippers back into the fold.kle4 said:
No more time to gather momentum either. Any good polls for the Tories now just add to the overall impression of it being very tight, rather than reinforcing a sense that things are moving in their direction. I think I'll move my personal prediction of a Cameron premiership down from 10-15% to 5%.KentRising said:Writing on the wall for the blues, methinks. Bad set of polls for them, these. No momentum from the scare tactics regarding the SNP, nor Dave's performance on the Beeb, and Mili's 'Overspend-gate' didn't happen.
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It would be nice if true. Not that i'm particularly excited about a Labour government but it would be nice if the bad guys lost for once and campaigns like Cameron's shouldn't be rewarded.0
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As someone said upthread odds of 10/3 for UKIP winning 15% - 20% looks good value IF you believe this poll.
Personally I don't and expect UKIP to be nearer to 12% than 17%, i.e < than 14.5% of. the UK vote.0 -
JackW
Is that all you have?
We are 108 hours from polls opening and Labour are ahead! in the polls - when the Tories need to be many % points ahead to stop Ed from being PM.0 -
The tories were on the front foot with some good 3 and 4 point leads in some polls up to the backstabbing lib dems and the cuts on the child benefits.0
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Survation given ballot poll EICIPM (majority)
Britain Elects @britainelects 49s49 seconds ago
Asked to cast their voting intention on a given ballot paper, the result yielded...
LAB: 33%
CON: 29%
UKIP: 16%
LDEM: 9%
GRN: 6%
(Survation)0 -
So is it common to place walk into betting shops with wheelbarrows full of cash?
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So when people get it the booth - they are breaking for Labour....
Unlucky Tories - you may think Dave was an ok PM - but he is a dreadful party leader...0 -
I'm really confused by this, is the Ballot Paper Question 3 or Question 4?0
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Would have happened already, surely? It's the narrative of being too close to call (in terms of who will win most seats) which is killing the Tories now - anyone even half paying attention knows there's very little between the big two and that the polls haven't been shifting. That results in Ed in No.10, and that sense must have bled through to more normal people to some degree.RobD said:
Which may drive wavering kippers back into the fold.kle4 said:
No more time to gather momentum either. Any good polls for the Tories now just add to the overall impression of it being very tight, rather than reinforcing a sense that things are moving in their direction. I think I'll move my personal prediction of a Cameron premiership down from 10-15% to 5%.KentRising said:Writing on the wall for the blues, methinks. Bad set of polls for them, these. No momentum from the scare tactics regarding the SNP, nor Dave's performance on the Beeb, and Mili's 'Overspend-gate' didn't happen.
And yet still nothing changes. People may not particularly like what outcome we will get. Ed may quickly become very unpopular if he cannot deal with the challenges he will face. But people are also not changing their voting intention to make a different result likely.0 -
Thank you for the great innings you have played Mr. Trott, time is up now I'm afraid.0
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Whatever my feelings about the Lib Dems that might be my preference as a result. I don't feel we'll get electoral reform though. Clegg has blown that with his stupid AV referendum and no-one seems to want to talk about it nowadays. However it would be a political masterstroke for Miliband newly installed as PM to pledge electoral reform to a voting system less favourable to his party. But would they back him on it?Danny565 said:Survation Baxter'ed:
Labour 312
Tories 251
Lib Dems 15
UKIP 2
SNP 47
Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.0 -
UKIP will get 10-14% and 3 seats. That's long been my prediction and sticking with it.peter_from_putney said:As someone said upthread odds of 10/3 for UKIP winning 15% - 20% looks good value IF you believe this poll.
Personally I don't and expect UKIP to be nearer to 12% than 17%, i.e < than 14.5% of. the UK vote.0 -
Tories fallen back on all polls since.nigel4england said:
Laughable statement.bigjohnowls said:Failure to explain £12 BN welfare cuts is a disaster for Dave IMO
A real disaster is Ed being so deluded he didn't think the previous government overspent.
You are Dan Hodges and i claim my prize0 -
Keep calm !bigjohnowls said:Survation given ballot poll EICIPM (majority)
Britain Elects @britainelects 49s49 seconds ago
Asked to cast their voting intention on a given ballot paper, the result yielded...
LAB: 33%
CON: 29%
UKIP: 16%
LDEM: 9%
GRN: 6%
(Survation)0 -
It certainly isn't common place to walk out with them.jamesmaybe said:So is it common to place walk into betting shops with wheelbarrows full of cash?
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Also from Survation
Imagine Boris was Tory leader:
Miliband's Labour 34%
Boris's Tories 32%
Clegg's Lib Dems 8%
Farage's UKIP 16%
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thank goodness there's always yougov to cheer us blues up when the polls are revolting...
oh,
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What was his greatest innings?nigel4england said:Thank you for the great innings you have played Mr. Trott, time is up now I'm afraid.
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The Survation thing is a piece of silliness. The Tories aren't going to poll less than Gentleman John did in 1997. Obvious bunk. (Perhaps that curious gimmick of making the response form look like a ballot paper has some strange psychological effect.)0
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YouGov
Con 34, Lab 33, Ukip 13, Libdem 8, Green 5, SNP 5, Others 20 -
Seconded. He has a wonderful career average and some truly fantastic innings to look back on with pride. A shame it will end with a poor series as his swansong.nigel4england said:Thank you for the great innings you have played Mr. Trott, time is up now I'm afraid.
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SeanT
Royal Baby means the air war is dead until Tuesday morning. Luckily the Tories can rely on their awesome ground game until then.....0 -
TheScreamingEagles
So I am a "cybernat" because I point out that those who base on sub samples are clutching at straw polls when there are real polls available. If that is what "cybernat" means then OK. If it is meant to be a term of abuse then let me say that as someone relatively new to all this political stuff I find the unionists on this site condiderably more offensive than the SNP supporters.
In any case I understand that there will indeed be a proper Scottish poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow and that it will confirm last week's poll and the end week polls and the massive Survation poll ie that the NATS are heading for around 50 seats.
My source is the same as last week when I correctly indicated it a full four hours before it was released.0 -
I've still got it!!!!Scrapheap_as_was said:thank goodness there's always yougov to cheer us blues up when the polls are revolting...
oh,0 -
Survation
UKIP and Labour have the highest proportion of 2010-DNV in their support.
Con 13%, Lab 25%, LD 15%, UKIP 24%
p.16, table 130 -
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YouGov S Times poll
Con 34
Lab 33
Ukip 13
LD 8
GN 5
Lol0 -
YouGov S Times poll
Con 34
Lab 33
Ukip 13
LD 8
GN 50 -
It is a lot more common than walking *out* of betting shops with wheelbarrows full of cash.jamesmaybe said:So is it common to place walk into betting shops with wheelbarrows full of cash?
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I stick by my earlier comment. No one knows anything.0
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How many polls are there likely to be between now and Erection Day? I assume Wednesday will be last day to legally poll people AND publish data?0
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Lab maj is ridiculously long at 100.RobC said:Disastrous Survation for Tories - might be worth getting on Lab seat majority fast
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We already know most of the Sunday polls already. Monday is a bank holiday and I suppose no polls. Tuesday and Wednesday are the two unknown desert days.
Politicians will be crossing this desert with cries of vote me, vote for me, as true desert travellers once cried for water, water. For many Thursday will prove no oasis. The next four days will be very interesting, especially if there is a late UKIP surge, underlying results I've seen today.0 -
168no that I watched in Melbourne in 2010 was pretty special as well as his 2nd innings ton at the oval in 2009.seems a long time ago now!jamesmaybe said:
What was his greatest innings?nigel4england said:Thank you for the great innings you have played Mr. Trott, time is up now I'm afraid.
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I am keeping calm ! But I feel Ed's outright rejection of the SNP was a blinder. Whatever happens, he has won the campaign. He has led from the front !Danny565 said:Survation Baxter'ed:
Labour 312
Tories 251
Lib Dems 15
UKIP 2
SNP 47
Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.
I will not be in any coalition. Certainly not with Clegg but then he won't be there anyway.0 -
Antifrank
Except the political parties ... who know a hell of a lot.0 -
Lol.0
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Hold your horses my labour lefty friends ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
Con 34, Lab 33, Ukip 13, Libdem 8, Green 5, SNP 5, Others 2
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Melbourne would be my pick, others mat disagreejamesmaybe said:
What was his greatest innings?nigel4england said:Thank you for the great innings you have played Mr. Trott, time is up now I'm afraid.
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Kellner detects signs that the election may be drifting (albeit very slowly) away from Labour
Great timing in that comment. Fortunately for Labour they can still take a slow drift away from them; if there had been a slow drift from the start of the campaign they would have been in trouble, but not now.
I am baffled how Tory plurality seems to remain the most common prediction. For some, I can understand, but it's most of them it seems.0 -
Another You Gov another with Dave gone....0
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Well, the Survation-induced excitement lasted a good 20 minutes.0
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Again you miss the point.scotslass said:TheScreamingEagles
So I am a "cybernat" because I point out that those who base on sub samples are clutching at straw polls when there are real polls available. If that is what "cybernat" means then OK. If it is meant to be a term of abuse then let me say that as someone relatively new to all this political stuff I find the unionists on this site condiderably more offensive than the SNP supporters.
In any case I understand that there will indeed be a proper Scottish poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow and that it will confirm last week's poll and the end week polls and the massive Survation poll ie that the NATS are heading for around 50 seats.
My source is the same as last week when I correctly indicated it a full four hours before it was released.
If only you were around when the Nats on here thought sub samples were the only thing talking about.
PS - I have better sources than you.0 -
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Perhaps. They don't behave as though they do. They seem pretty clueless.IOS said:Antifrank
Except the political parties ... who know a hell of a lot.0 -
So in tonight's polls conservatives ahead in two, behind in one and tied in the other but it's all over for them0
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YouGov - that's more like it.0
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Friday was the crucial day. After Miliband got a kicking on the Beeb Thursday night and showed his delusion in revealing he doesn't think Labour overspent, that was the "bigoted woman" moment.IOS said:So when people get it the booth - they are breaking for Labour....
Unlucky Tories - you may think Dave was an ok PM - but he is a dreadful party leader...
The Tories needed to take to the airwaves and ram the message home that Labour haven't learnt their lessons and can't be trusted. Instead, there was nothing - just Cameron getting ruddy-faced at ASDA's HQ. The only soundbites the MSM took was some drivel about him not wanting a coalition but a full majority.
Here's a message for you Dave (and Crosby and Shapps and the shocking Tory campaign): No one gives a shit what you want, they give a shit about what impacts on their own lives. Stop talking about coalitions and politics etc, and instead talk about the issues.
The problem with CCHQ is it is run by a bunch of thick-as-pig-sh#t toffs with no life experience and who couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.0 -
And if they are, it needs to be by quite a bit. Still possible, but an even tougher ask than just the polls simply being wrong.SeanT said:
It's not enough. The trend is now status quo, with a hint of Labour gaining.felix said:YouGov S Times poll
Con 34
Lab 33
Ukip 13
LD 8
GN 5
Lol
Six days out, it's not enough.
UNLESS THE POLLS ARE ALL WRONG....0 -
Kelner is someone thats stands to lose a hell of a lot if Cam isn't back in as PM. He is on the anti Ed wing of the Labour party.
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Oh well, ups and downs again. Impossible to know what is going on. The Battersea rumour that blues could lose was just hysterics. That's the problem with politics, too many emotion idiots involved. If that is lost then Ed gets 350 seats. not going to happen0
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Survation
ONLINE poll alert!0 -
A bit like the debates, it does give minor parties a boost.Stark_Dawning said:The Survation thing is a piece of silliness. The Tories aren't going to poll less than Gentleman John did in 1997. Obvious bunk. (Perhaps that curious gimmick of making the response form look like a ballot paper has some strange psychological effect.)
Though a lot depends on where those kippers are. Inner city or saxon shore...
Interesting to see the parties are neck and neck in the midlands.0 -
English batting = Sat night polling.
English bowlers = Tories on thursday.0 -
That should mean it has got the economy in good enough shape that it can be safely handed over to Labour - The Electorate.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mike Smithson last seen departing for year long world tour with Mrs. OGH on his GE profits. He's heard murmuring at the quayside "That'll teach you JackW, that'll teach you".Danny565 said:Survation Baxter'ed:
Labour 312
Tories 251
Lib Dems 15
UKIP 2
SNP 47
Lib-Lab coalition would be one seat over the majority threshold.0 -
I am amazed at how little it featured. I said then that if it gained traction then things could be looking up for the Tories, yet they ignored it...KentRising said:
Friday was the crucial day. After Miliband got a kicking on the Beeb Thursday night and showed his delusion in revealing he doesn't think Labour overspent, that was the "bigoted woman" moment.IOS said:So when people get it the booth - they are breaking for Labour....
Unlucky Tories - you may think Dave was an ok PM - but he is a dreadful party leader...
The Tories needed to take to the airwaves and ram the message home that Labour haven't learnt their lessons and can't be trusted. Instead, there was nothing - just Cameron getting ruddy-faced at ASDA's HQ. The only soundbites the MSM took was some drivel about him not wanting a coalition but a full majority.
Here's a message for you Dave (and Crosby and Shapps and the shocking Tory campaign): No one gives a shit what you want, they give a shit about what impacts on their own lives. Stop talking about coalitions and politics etc, and instead talk about the issues.
The problem with CCHQ is it is run by a bunch of thick-as-pig-sh#t toffs with no life experience and who couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.0 -
Kelner Tory Plurality.
Always seems to be a week behind to me.
His 14/5/15 Prediction could be spot on IMO0 -
Ooh England are collapsing. 18/3
If Root goes early they may as well concede.0 -
Yes. Because they need to be clearly ahead in almost all of them to have even a chance of forming the next government, unless the polls showing tied or Lab leads are just plain wrong.Big_G_NorthWales said:So in tonight's polls conservatives ahead in two, behind in one and tied in the other but it's all over for them
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RobD
His reputation. Also his politics being lived out. He is a hardcore Blairite. If Ed gets in - it totally undermines the Hodges wing of the party... not that there are many left other than the ultras anyway.0
