politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend genera
Comments
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Labour only 15% behind the SNP in the Opinium sub sample0
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Hodges will make some kind of excuse up like he actually meant if Labour get most seats and win Witney. A bit like his Farage in the debates was added on to his UKIP streak. And to think if DM had won, Dan would have got his job, and Political Betting would have missed out on his hero worship.Speedy said:
So there is a 50-50 chance of Dan Hodges breaking his promise to streak in public again.bigjohnowls said:Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 19m19 minutes ago
@anthonypainter @AlbertoNardelli @MSmithsonPB @antonmccoy If Labour win most seats I'll streak everywhere for ever...
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells 2m2 minutes ago
@DPJHodges @anthonypainter Dan, you're so ready to threaten to streak I sometimes reckon you're just looking for an excuse to streak
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17% on Comres.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour only 15% behind the SNP in the Opinium sub sample
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Is tory seat band 251-275 at 11/2 better value than labour most seats at 4/1?
I suppose it is if you expect labour to be wiped out in scotland but do better in Ruk.
Cons losing 3 to UKIP/SNP, gaining 16 from libs and losing 50 to labour gets you to 270,
Plausible result if vote % are tied?0 -
Dunno. But from polling over recent months, Labour's vote is now much more an elderly one - in that respect, indeed a sort of Red Tory vote, so to speak - and that correlates with postal voting I should think. Which makes one wonder about the conclusions to be drawn from (prresumably illegal) examination of postal ballots ...YBarddCwsc said:Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.
However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,
"The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.
This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”
So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.
Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?
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But how would anyone know how the postal ballots were stacking up. Surely the voting slips aren't removed from their envelopes and counted until after the polls have formally closed on 7 May?kjohnw said:
if there is any truth in this article then we could be looking at 1992 again and a lot of egg on pollsters facesdaodao said:This article suggests that things are not looking good for Labour:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic
Which reminds me, have I effectively been disenfranchised by a combination of a deterioration in Royal Mail's collection service and by the May Day bank holiday?
I posted my voting papers back to Wandsworth Town Hall mid-morning on Thursday 30 April .... too late to catch the once a day 9.00am collection from my local pillar box in Putney. Although designated first class mail, in my experience very little such mail actually arrives the following day, i.e. Friday. This morning the aforementioned Town Hall is closed as indeed it will be tomorrow and also on Monday. The accompanying blurb stated that postal ballots must be returned by no later than 10.00am on Tuesday 5 May. Well in this part of the Capital, we rarely receive our mail before 12.00 noon, so the chances of a delivery two hours earlier than that appear remote, unless special prior arrangements have been made, but then of course pigs might fly.0 -
Tx. You would have thought that, this close to an election, the pollsters would be wanting to make sure their polls were as up to date as possible. Wikipedia shows 5 previously-published polls ahead of these two on fieldwork dates.TheScreamingEagles said:
The opinium fieldework was also the 28th to the 30th of AprilJohnLilburne said:ComRes is quite an old poll now, 28-30 April (Tues-Thurs) http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/05/02/comres-poll-labour-and-conservatives-tied/. Can't tell with the Opinium poll as the Observer article doesn't give the fieldwork dates, but if it's the same as last week's it will be Tues-Fri, I(n comparison, YouGov will be bang up to date: Fri-Sat.
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Surely they have to accept ballot papers up until the close of polls, which would be the last delivery on election day in the case of a postal ballot?peter_from_putney said:
But how would anyone know how the postal ballots were stacking up. Surely the voting slips aren't removed from their envelopes and counted until after the polls have formally closed on 7 May?kjohnw said:
if there is any truth in this article then we could be looking at 1992 again and a lot of egg on pollsters facesdaodao said:This article suggests that things are not looking good for Labour:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic
Which reminds me, have I effectively been disenfranchised by a combination of a deterioration in Royal Mail's collection service and by the May Day bank holiday?
I posted my voting papers back to Wandsworth Town Hall mid-morning on Thursday 30 April .... too late to catch the once a day 9.00am collection from my local pillar box in Putney. Although designated first class mail, in my experience very little such mail actually arrives the following day, i.e. Friday. This morning the aforementioned Town Hall is closed as indeed it will be tomorrow and also on Monday. The accompanying blurb stated that postal ballots must be returned by no later than 10.00am on Tuesday 5 May. Well in this part of the Capital, we rarely receive our mail before 12.00 noon, so the chances of a delivery two hours earlier than that appear remote, unless specia priorl arrangements have been made, but then of course pigs might fly.0 -
I had a hand delivered piece of labour toilet paper today. First time of the campaign. It is quite possible this means Labour activists are being bussed up from England.YBarddCwsc said:Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.
However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,
"The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.
This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”
So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.
Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?
However, I don't see how it is going to help them. They are truly finished in Scotland. The voters are not listening to anything they say.0 -
I have noticed in other sub samples from other companies over the last few days the same thing, for some reason most scottish sub samples show the gap much smaller than the regular scotish polls.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour only 15% behind the SNP in the Opinium sub sample
But that doesn't affect the voting intention too much, perhaps it adds 0.5% to Labour.
Seat wise it's much more significant, but LordA hasn't shown it.0 -
4% of Comres REFUSED to say who they would vote for even when told to consider the situation when they had to vote. (12% did not know how they would vote in that circumstance) - Can we read anything into that?0
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Are the SNP named in the voting question?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour only 15% behind the SNP in the Opinium sub sample
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Not one of those 'MPs' is an MP. Candidates all.AndreaParma_82 said:The advert of the Birmimghan Rally
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEAJnYWWoAE4GpW.jpg:large
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Worth a try though. Labour started out so far ahead in many of those seats that the SNP landslide will not produce a huge majority in many of them even with such a huge increase in their own vote. If Labour could claw back even 5% that might well save at least a handful of seats, which could make the difference between Lab or Con most seats. Even though having most seats is not actually required under our system, psychologically it would boost them.Dair said:
I had a hand delivered piece of labour toilet paper today. First time of the campaign. It is quite possible this means Labour activists are being bussed up from England.YBarddCwsc said:Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.
However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,
"The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.
This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”
So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.
Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?
However, I don't see how it is going to help them. They are truly finished in Scotland. The voters are not listening to anything they say.0 -
Business mail is commonly delivered 9-10am.RobD said:
Surely they have to accept ballot papers up until the close of polls, which would be the last delivery on election day in the case of a postal ballot?peter_from_putney said:
But how would anyone know how the postal ballots were stacking up. Surely the voting slips aren't removed from their envelopes and counted until after the polls have formally closed on 7 May?kjohnw said:
if there is any truth in this article then we could be looking at 1992 again and a lot of egg on pollsters facesdaodao said:This article suggests that things are not looking good for Labour:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic
Which reminds me, have I effectively been disenfranchised by a combination of a deterioration in Royal Mail's collection service and by the May Day bank holiday?
I posted my voting papers back to Wandsworth Town Hall mid-morning on Thursday 30 April .... too late to catch the once a day 9.00am collection from my local pillar box in Putney. Although designated first class mail, in my experience very little such mail actually arrives the following day, i.e. Friday. This morning the aforementioned Town Hall is closed as indeed it will be tomorrow and also on Monday. The accompanying blurb stated that postal ballots must be returned by no later than 10.00am on Tuesday 5 May. Well in this part of the Capital, we rarely receive our mail before 12.00 noon, so the chances of a delivery two hours earlier than that appear remote, unless specia priorl arrangements have been made, but then of course pigs might fly.
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Just watched the Question Time with the leaders. Some members of the audience secured seats by saying they were undecided yet it turns out thst the business woman who tackled Miliband had started her business with a Tory MP and the young woman with dark hair and a cream blouse was a Tory plant who was outed through her connections to Conservative scources. Miliband appeared confident and trustworthy and the audience warmed to his principled stance re. SNP. Cameron deployed all his usual tricks including the predictable mention of his family's past reliance on the NHS, such a cheap reference and so dis-honourable.Good job that there was another Bullingdon member in the chair.0
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It's the best piece of journalism I've seen this campaign. The guy's career will be made when EdM underperforms Brown.enfant said:It's not Labour list,it's Labour uncut.
This guy is even more upset that D M did not win than DH.
They have both spent the last 5 years trying to undermine Ed.
Ignore this article,it is just nonsense.0 -
IIRC they don't, they only name the Tories, Lab, Lib Dems or some other partyDanSmith said:
Are the SNP named in the voting question?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour only 15% behind the SNP in the Opinium sub sample
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I want Jimmy Anderson to be PM. He understands all the important issues and consistently delivers. How do I vote for him?0
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Jimmy, good lad, good lad. We can't win only on Jimmy's shoulders mind.
As far as I can see we have two world class players, Jimmy and the emerging Joe Root. Australia have maybe 9-10. New Zealand have 4-5.0 -
Anderson hits WI for 6 - unfortunately England have to bat now.0
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So Labour are to be saved by a few pieces of toilet paper? Well I suppose it has been known to have happened previously over the entire history of mankind.kle4 said:
Worth a try though. Labour started out so far ahead in many of those seats that the SNP landslide will not produce a huge majority in many of them even with such a huge increase in their own vote. If Labour could claw back even 5% that might well save at least a handful of seats, which could make the difference between Lab or Con most seats. Even though having most seats is not actually required under our system, psychologically it would boost them.Dair said:
I had a hand delivered piece of labour toilet paper today. First time of the campaign. It is quite possible this means Labour activists are being bussed up from England.YBarddCwsc said:Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.
However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,
"The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.
This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”
So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.
Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?
However, I don't see how it is going to help them. They are truly finished in Scotland. The voters are not listening to anything they say.0 -
Glad to see the infinite parallel universe theory stands up - in one of them perhaps Ed did well. Luckily for the British public, back here on earth he was pretty dire and almost fell off the stage.roserees64 said:Just watched the Question Time with the leaders. Some members of the audience secured seats by saying they were undecided yet it turns out thst the business woman who tackled Miliband had started her business with a Tory MP and the young woman with dark hair and a cream blouse was a Tory plant who was outed through her connections to Conservative scources. Miliband appeared confident and trustworthy and the audience warmed to his principled stance re. SNP. Cameron deployed all his usual tricks including the predictable mention of his family's past reliance on the NHS, such a cheap reference and so dis-honourable.Good job that there was another Bullingdon member in the chair.
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Ok did quite a long drive today from Wiltshire to St Ives passing through Frome , down to Exeter across the top of Bodmin moor to Truro and into St Ives. To pass the time I watched out for party boards along the main roads on the way and an estimate is I saw approx.
Tory around 75%
Lib Dem around 20%
Greens around 3 %
A Cornish party ? 2%
Labour I only saw one board on side of A30
The Frome area were around 50/50 between Tory and Lib Dem....
South of this were greens but no further than Exeter
The Tories were consistent along the route but particularly in Frome area. They also had a very large showing on billboards and small billboards with a picture of the local PPC all the way from Exeter to St Ives.
The one Labour board was just vote Labour. I saw not a single UKIP board anywhere.. That was surprising.
I have no idea if this is any use to anyone or actually means anything but there it is for what it is.0 -
Rose- I haven't see your posts here for some time. You should have been here on Thursday night when pbCOM was at it's very worst with Cameron ramping.roserees64 said:Just watched the Question Time with the leaders. Some members of the audience secured seats by saying they were undecided yet it turns out thst the business woman who tackled Miliband had started her business with a Tory MP and the young woman with dark hair and a cream blouse was a Tory plant who was outed through her connections to Conservative scources. Miliband appeared confident and trustworthy and the audience warmed to his principled stance re. SNP. Cameron deployed all his usual tricks including the predictable mention of his family's past reliance on the NHS, such a cheap reference and so dis-honourable.Good job that there was another Bullingdon member in the chair.
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Sorry - confirmed long-term lurker, but I simply cant resist. This is the best comedy post I've seen this year. Impossible to parody.roserees64 said:Just watched the Question Time with the leaders. Some members of the audience secured seats by saying they were undecided yet it turns out thst the business woman who tackled Miliband had started her business with a Tory MP and the young woman with dark hair and a cream blouse was a Tory plant who was outed through her connections to Conservative scources. Miliband appeared confident and trustworthy and the audience warmed to his principled stance re. SNP. Cameron deployed all his usual tricks including the predictable mention of his family's past reliance on the NHS, such a cheap reference and so dis-honourable.Good job that there was another Bullingdon member in the chair.
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Jack
Thats a nonsense argument. And whats more you know it. It comes down to whether you believe that parties know what is going on reasonably well. Fact is they do. You can see from where the Tories are spending their money they don't believe your projections.
You started your prediction under the assumption the polls would move. They haven't. Why? Because the people of the UK today are not like the people of the UK you used to know.
The country has changed. Unfortunately your perception hasn't.0 -
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Yesterday's news - the Lady had voted (she said) Lib Dem in 2010 - La donna e mobile. And there are usually plenty of left-wing voices in QT audiences - you just got a taste of your own medicine - and it proved EIC.roserees64 said:Just watched the Question Time with the leaders. Some members of the audience secured seats by saying they were undecided yet it turns out thst the business woman who tackled Miliband had started her business with a Tory MP and the young woman with dark hair and a cream blouse was a Tory plant who was outed through her connections to Conservative scources. Miliband appeared confident and trustworthy and the audience warmed to his principled stance re. SNP. Cameron deployed all his usual tricks including the predictable mention of his family's past reliance on the NHS, such a cheap reference and so dis-honourable.Good job that there was another Bullingdon member in the chair.
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I've seen 5x the number of Green posters/activists/leaflets in evidence in the South of England than Labour.Moses_ said:Ok did quite a long drive today from Wiltshire to St Ives passing through Frome , down to Exeter across the top of Bodmin moor to Truro and into St Ives. To pass the time I watched out for party boards along the main roads on the way and an estimate is I saw approx.
Tory around 75%
Lib Dem around 20%
Greens around 3 %
A Cornish party ? 2%
Labour I only saw one board on side of A30
The Frome area were around 50/50 between Tory and Lib Dem....
South of this were greens but no further than Exeter
The Tories were consistent along the route but particularly in Frome area. They also had a very large showing on billboards and small billboards with a picture of the local PPC all the way from Exeter to St Ives.
The one Labour board was just vote Labour. I saw not a single UKIP board anywhere.. That was surprising.
I have no idea if this is any use to anyone or actually means anything but there it is for what it is.
Other than London and pockets of Midlands/Northern cities, Labour is starting to look like a spent force in Britain.
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Just had Labour leaflet through the door -five minutes ago.
Haven't had as many leaflets from Greens - yet if Twitter was to be believed Greens are going well in Bristol W. If Williams is kicked out, my guess is that Labour will be doing the kicking. Though am aware of tactical voting from the right.0 -
I doubt it would even be the most popular result amongst supporters of one of the coalition parties let alone the whole countryBig_G_NorthWales said:
This election is far from over for David Cameron and it looks as if the present coalition may well continue which I would suggest would be the most popular resultSpeedy said:
Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.0 -
There is a serious crop of SLAB seats that all fall on the same sort of swing. A few percentage points could in theory produce a swathe of seats. If gains are looking hard to find in England it makes sense for Labour to put the effort in north of the border.
I think there is almost no chance of this working. But it has to be worth a try. The upside is almost certainly better in Scotland than anywhere else.0 -
I don't recall saying it would work.peter_from_putney said:
So Labour are to be saved by a few pieces of toilet paper? Well I suppose it has been known to have happened previously over the entire history of mankind.kle4 said:
Worth a try though. Labour started out so far ahead in many of those seats that the SNP landslide will not produce a huge majority in many of them even with such a huge increase in their own vote. If Labour could claw back even 5% that might well save at least a handful of seats, which could make the difference between Lab or Con most seats. Even though having most seats is not actually required under our system, psychologically it would boost them.Dair said:
I had a hand delivered piece of labour toilet paper today. First time of the campaign. It is quite possible this means Labour activists are being bussed up from England.YBarddCwsc said:Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.
However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,
"The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.
This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”
So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.
Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?
However, I don't see how it is going to help them. They are truly finished in Scotland. The voters are not listening to anything they say.
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So if we assume Trott is out for <5 then is this pretty even or is batting 4th on this pitch too much to ask of the Windies?0
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One of the more laughable notions was Ed's One Nation.Mortimer said:
I've seen 5x the number of Green posters/activists/leaflets in evidence in the South of England than Labour.Moses_ said:Ok did quite a long drive today from Wiltshire to St Ives passing through Frome , down to Exeter across the top of Bodmin moor to Truro and into St Ives. To pass the time I watched out for party boards along the main roads on the way and an estimate is I saw approx.
Tory around 75%
Lib Dem around 20%
Greens around 3 %
A Cornish party ? 2%
Labour I only saw one board on side of A30
The Frome area were around 50/50 between Tory and Lib Dem....
South of this were greens but no further than Exeter
The Tories were consistent along the route but particularly in Frome area. They also had a very large showing on billboards and small billboards with a picture of the local PPC all the way from Exeter to St Ives.
The one Labour board was just vote Labour. I saw not a single UKIP board anywhere.. That was surprising.
I have no idea if this is any use to anyone or actually means anything but there it is for what it is.
Other than London and pockets of Midlands/Northern cities, Labour is starting to look like a spent force in Britain.
Unless that nation was meant to be the bits of rUK where industrial-scale rape occurs on its children......0 -
Ooops looks like Opinium and ComRes had field-work ending in April, will need to include them in my slightly shortened ELBOW
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Or over apart from at PB Tory bar mitzvahs when EICIPMMonikerDiCanio said:
It's the best piece of journalism I've seen this campaign. The guy's career will be made when EdM underperforms Brown.enfant said:It's not Labour list,it's Labour uncut.
This guy is even more upset that D M did not win than DH.
They have both spent the last 5 years trying to undermine Ed.
Ignore this article,it is just nonsense.0 -
Some nastiness in Brizzle:dr_spyn said:Just had Labour leaflet through the door -five minutes ago.
Haven't had as many leaflets from Greens - yet if Twitter was to be believed Greens are going well in Bristol W. If Williams is kicked out, my guess is that Labour will be doing the kicking. Though am aware of tactical voting from the right.
http://m.bristolpost.co.uk/Vandals-wreck-Bristol-MP-candidate-Charlotte/story-26425029-detail/story.html
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Don't worry Dimitry. That applies to all of roserees's posts. The only good thing about them is she is slowly learning how to use punctuation which is a vast improvement on what we were subjected to up to a few months ago.Dimitry said:
Sorry - confirmed long-term lurker, but I simply cant resist. This is the best comedy post I've seen this year. Impossible to parody.roserees64 said:Just watched the Question Time with the leaders. Some members of the audience secured seats by saying they were undecided yet it turns out thst the business woman who tackled Miliband had started her business with a Tory MP and the young woman with dark hair and a cream blouse was a Tory plant who was outed through her connections to Conservative scources. Miliband appeared confident and trustworthy and the audience warmed to his principled stance re. SNP. Cameron deployed all his usual tricks including the predictable mention of his family's past reliance on the NHS, such a cheap reference and so dis-honourable.Good job that there was another Bullingdon member in the chair.
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Just a quick tally of how the pollsters did in the EP (fieldwork ending after 15/5):
Actual results: Con: 23.1%, Lab: 24.4%, UKIP: 26.6% (Difference from actual results)
YouGov:
15-16: 23% (-0.1), 27% (+2.6), 26% (-0.6)
18-19: 21% (-2.1), 28% (+3.6), 24% (-2.6)
19-20: 23% (-0.1), 27% (+2.6), 27% (+0.4)
20-21: 22% (-1.1), 26% (+1.6), 27% (+0.4)
Avg.: Con (-0.85), Lab (+2.60), UKIP (-0.60)
Opinium
13-16: 20% (-3.1), 29% (+4.6), 31% (+4.4)
19-21: 21% (-2.1), 25% (+0.6), 32% (+5.4)
Avg.: Con (-2.6), Lab (+2.6), UKIP (+4.9)
ComRes (can't find if phone or online)
16-18: 20% (-3.1), 27% (+2.6), 33% (+6.4)
TNS
15-19: 21% (-2.1), 28% (+3.6), 31% (+4.4)
Survation
19-20: 23% (-0.1), 27% (+2.6), 32% (+5.4)
Non YouGov Average: Con (-2.1), Lab (+2.8), UKIP (+5.2)
That Con-Lab difference is massive, if applied to the current figures (~1% Con lead) we'd be looking at a 6% Con lead...0 -
The postal votes are opened every day and put into bundles (of 50 I think) they are counted face up and any candidate or party agent is allowed to go along and witness this, the same is done at the main count, it's called verification, so that they can check that the number of ballots received is the same as the total number of papers issued,JohnLilburne said:
Business mail is commonly delivered 9-10am.RobD said:
Surely they have to accept ballot papers up until the close of polls, which would be the last delivery on election day in the case of a postal ballot?peter_from_putney said:
But how would anyone know how the postal ballots were stacking up. Surely the voting slips aren't removed from their envelopes and counted until after the polls have formally closed on 7 May?kjohnw said:
if there is any truth in this article then we could be looking at 1992 again and a lot of egg on pollsters facesdaodao said:This article suggests that things are not looking good for Labour:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic
Which reminds me, have I effectively been disenfranchised by a combination of a deterioration in Royal Mail's collection service and by the May Day bank holiday?
I posted my voting papers back to Wandsworth Town Hall mid-morning on Thursday 30 April .... too late to catch the once a day 9.00am collection from my local pillar box in Putney. Although designated first class mail, in my experience very little such mail actually arrives the following day, i.e. Friday. This morning the aforementioned Town Hall is closed as indeed it will be tomorrow and also on Monday. The accompanying blurb stated that postal ballots must be returned by no later than 10.00am on Tuesday 5 May. Well in this part of the Capital, we rarely receive our mail before 12.00 noon, so the chances of a delivery two hours earlier than that appear remote, unless specia priorl arrangements have been made, but then of course pigs might fly.
They are not tallied at this stage however, they are put into sealed pouches and when the non postal votes have been verified the pouches of postal votes are then opened, added to the bundles of other votes and the process of tallying the numbers of votes cast for each candidate can begin.
To answer the other point, I think that the Town Hall is erring on the side of caution and that votes received up to Thursday will still be counted.
It used to be the case that if you had not posted your vote, then you could hand it in to any polling station in the constituency on polling day, I don't know if that's still true because they check the signatures very carefully nowadays to prevent possible fraud.0 -
Tommy Robinson @TRobinsonNewEra 51m51 minutes ago
3 Labour MPs + 1 MEP address campaign rally audience segregated by sex in Birmingham - http://order-order.com/2015/05/02/everydaysexualsegregation/#_@/izXuEQ010Y-9sw … …0 -
http://t.co/l0WfRZyl0e it seems political parties think this is acceptable,more pleas to vote based on skin colour pic.twitter.com/V5594bBkEX
— The Matriot (@DICS131294) May 2, 20150 -
Ed Miliband was not at all 'dire'on Question Time and saying that he was does not correspond with reality. As for 'falling off the stage' you can't mean that slight correction when he left the stage, well -recovered Ed. Who will have the last laugh on Friday morning?0
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Yes, I've probably seen most of them. Your mention of punctuation makes me even more mortified at having, in my haste, missed out the apostrophe from "can't". Red face!Richard_Tyndall said:
Don't worry Dimitry. That applies to all of roserees's posts. The only good thing about them is she is slowly learning how to use punctuation which is a vast improvement on what we were subjected to up to a few months ago.Dimitry said:
Sorry - confirmed long-term lurker, but I simply cant resist. This is the best comedy post I've seen this year. Impossible to parody.roserees64 said:Just watched the Question Time with the leaders. Some members of the audience secured seats by saying they were undecided yet it turns out thst the business woman who tackled Miliband had started her business with a Tory MP and the young woman with dark hair and a cream blouse was a Tory plant who was outed through her connections to Conservative scources. Miliband appeared confident and trustworthy and the audience warmed to his principled stance re. SNP. Cameron deployed all his usual tricks including the predictable mention of his family's past reliance on the NHS, such a cheap reference and so dis-honourable.Good job that there was another Bullingdon member in the chair.
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Scum. Is it just me, or does this happen more often from our more loony lefties?foxinsoxuk said:
Some nastiness in Brizzle:dr_spyn said:Just had Labour leaflet through the door -five minutes ago.
Haven't had as many leaflets from Greens - yet if Twitter was to be believed Greens are going well in Bristol W. If Williams is kicked out, my guess is that Labour will be doing the kicking. Though am aware of tactical voting from the right.
http://m.bristolpost.co.uk/Vandals-wreck-Bristol-MP-candidate-Charlotte/story-26425029-detail/story.html0 -
They open the outer envelope, but not the inner one, surely?DeClare said:
The postal votes are opened every day and put into bundles (of 50 I think) they are counted face up and any candidate or party agent is allowed to go along and witness this, the same is done at the main count, it's called verification, so that they can check that the number of ballots received is the same as the total number of papers issued,
They are not tallied at this stage however, they are put into sealed pouches and when the non postal votes have been verified the pouches of postal votes are then opened, added to the bundles of other votes and the process of tallying the numbers of votes cast for each candidate can begin.
To answer the other point, I think that the Town Hall is erring on the side of caution and that votes received up to Thursday will still be counted.
It used to be the case that if you had not posted your vote, then you could hand it in to any polling station in the constituency on polling day, I don't know if that's still true because they check the signatures very carefully nowadays to prevent possible fraud.0 -
@Survation: POLL ALERT! 9pm. Standby for our largest ever online sample voting intention poll showing voters 632 seats their individual ballot papers..0
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Her offices were sprayed with the words 'Fracking whore', though targeting her father's cars is unsettling - given that the family were all at home that night.foxinsoxuk said:
Some nastiness in Brizzle:dr_spyn said:Just had Labour leaflet through the door -five minutes ago.
Haven't had as many leaflets from Greens - yet if Twitter was to be believed Greens are going well in Bristol W. If Williams is kicked out, my guess is that Labour will be doing the kicking. Though am aware of tactical voting from the right.
http://m.bristolpost.co.uk/Vandals-wreck-Bristol-MP-candidate-Charlotte/story-26425029-detail/story.html0 -
http://linkis.com/www.standard.co.uk/n/DKVuy
Diane Abbott was embroiled in another Twitter row today after accusing London's taxi drivers of driving past black customers.
That woman is a black menace, and she's no phantom either.0 -
In this election it is unlikely anyone will get all they want - there will have to be compromiseOllyT said:
I doubt it would even be the most popular result amongst supporters of one of the coalition parties let alone the whole countryBig_G_NorthWales said:
This election is far from over for David Cameron and it looks as if the present coalition may well continue which I would suggest would be the most popular resultSpeedy said:
Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.0 -
Nice!TheScreamingEagles said:@Survation: POLL ALERT! 9pm. Standby for our largest ever online sample voting intention poll showing voters 632 seats their individual ballot papers..
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I think he did alright. He faced more aggressive questioning, and the spontaneous reaction to his denial about spending too much made for a good visual for his opponents, but he had some good lines prepared and was able to be very firm on issues he had been expected to equivocate on (whether he remains so we shall see, but we can hope so). That said, if what people say is usually indistinguishable from party spin, it can probably be discounted whichever side parrots it out, as they are only every true by sheer coincidence.roserees64 said:Ed Miliband was not at all 'dire'on Question Time and saying that he was does not correspond with reality.
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Nicola will.roserees64 said:Ed Miliband was not at all 'dire'on Question Time and saying that he was does not correspond with reality. As for 'falling off the stage' you can't mean that slight correction when he left the stage, well -recovered Ed. Who will have the last laugh on Friday morning?
At least Ed can look forward to being PM at her beck and call.0 -
A bit of argy bargy or heckling is fair political banter. This is rather more threatening.RobD said:
Scum. Is it just me, or does this happen more often from our more loony lefties?foxinsoxuk said:
Some nastiness in Brizzle:dr_spyn said:Just had Labour leaflet through the door -five minutes ago.
Haven't had as many leaflets from Greens - yet if Twitter was to be believed Greens are going well in Bristol W. If Williams is kicked out, my guess is that Labour will be doing the kicking. Though am aware of tactical voting from the right.
http://m.bristolpost.co.uk/Vandals-wreck-Bristol-MP-candidate-Charlotte/story-26425029-detail/story.html
It is perhaps part of why we are seeing fewer political posters out in front yards.0 -
The EP is notoriously difficult to poll because turnout is usually far, far lower than is reported in polling. It's not that the pollsters were wrong - it is more likely that voters did not show up. So using that as a basis for comparison can be misleading. Stick with general elections.Chameleon said:Just a quick tally of how the pollsters did in the EP (fieldwork ending after 15/5):
Actual results: Con: 23.1%, Lab: 24.4%, UKIP: 26.6% (Difference from actual results)
YouGov:
15-16: 23% (-0.1), 27% (+2.6), 26% (-0.6)
18-19: 21% (-2.1), 28% (+3.6), 24% (-2.6)
19-20: 23% (-0.1), 27% (+2.6), 27% (+0.4)
20-21: 22% (-1.1), 26% (+1.6), 27% (+0.4)
Avg.: Con (-0.85), Lab (+2.60), UKIP (-0.60)
Opinium
13-16: 20% (-3.1), 29% (+4.6), 31% (+4.4)
19-21: 21% (-2.1), 25% (+0.6), 32% (+5.4)
Avg.: Con (-2.6), Lab (+2.6), UKIP (+4.9)
ComRes (can't find if phone or online)
16-18: 20% (-3.1), 27% (+2.6), 33% (+6.4)
TNS
15-19: 21% (-2.1), 28% (+3.6), 31% (+4.4)
Survation
19-20: 23% (-0.1), 27% (+2.6), 32% (+5.4)
Non YouGov Average: Con (-2.1), Lab (+2.8), UKIP (+5.2)/b>0 -
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics
·
Sunday Telegraph: Vote in the national interest. Vote Conservative http://tgr.ph/1I1ZhES
Tim Stanley ✔ @timothy_stanley
The Sunday Telegraph Endorsement: "Vote in the national interest. Vote Conservative" | via @Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11579151/Sunday-Telegraph-Vote-in-the-national-interest.-Vote-Conservative.html …
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ARSE deniers like you were spewing the same guff in 2010 and yet ....IOS said:Jack
Thats a nonsense argument. And whats more you know it. It comes down to whether you believe that parties know what is going on reasonably well. Fact is they do. You can see from where the Tories are spending their money they don't believe your projections.
You started your prediction under the assumption the polls would move. They haven't. Why? Because the people of the UK today are not like the people of the UK you used to know.
The country has changed. Unfortunately your perception hasn't.
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If there has been an upsurge in resources SLAB are being very secretive, you would expect to see some social media postings of SLAB activists in strong numbers canvassing etc. As far as I can tell from the various SLAB activists I'm following (on twitter not physically !!), it still seems to be small groups of activists consistent with SLAB's low membership numbers.YBarddCwsc said:Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.
However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,
"The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.
This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”
So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.
Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?
I think this is a scare article aimed at getting Labour supporters in E&W back in line.0 -
Tyson - please allow me to suggest one small amendment to your post. Souldn't the last few words of your first paragraph read "heck you get a Labour Gov't.tyson said:
Peter-I've always made money on Jack's predictions, and am backing him again.peter_from_putney said:
But wait, only this morning JackW had the Tories ahead of Labour by 59, that's FIFTY NINE seats, 306 vs 247. One of the two is going to be so deliciously and humilitatingly wrong (please don't them both be equally wrong, that would just be too boring)bigjohnowls said:LAB most seats 5.1
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
If it continues this close then LAB looks set to win most seats
The winnings will of course mitigate the disappointment from the nights results. And, if I lose, heck- we get a Labour Govt.
BTW- I have never lost money on an election from memory- I have always come out on balance in profit. If Ed is PM next week, it'll be the first time I will lose.
And I have precisely 2-3 hours left before finalising my positions.
You, by contrast, have the luxury of watching from afar!0 -
Whatever next, the Mirror endorsing Labour?Tykejohnno said:
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics
·
Sunday Telegraph: Vote in the national interest. Vote Conservative http://tgr.ph/1I1ZhES0 -
OOh this could be very interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:@Survation: POLL ALERT! 9pm. Standby for our largest ever online sample voting intention poll showing voters 632 seats their individual ballot papers..
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OMG
Survation. @Survation 4m4 minutes ago
POLL ALERT! 9pm. Standby for our largest ever online sample voting intention poll showing voters 632 seats their individual ballot papers..0 -
Quite. I suppose it can be interesting to see how enthusiastically they are telling people to vote for the people they were always going to tell their readers to vote for.FrancisUrquhart said:
Whatever next, the Mirror endorsing Labour?Tykejohnno said:
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics
·
Sunday Telegraph: Vote in the national interest. Vote Conservative http://tgr.ph/1I1ZhES0 -
But all the ToryPBers have been telling us for months that the Tories would be clearly ahead in the polls by now and heading for a majority. They now seem to have changed tack, the new mantra "all the polls are wrong and it's going to be 1992 all over again"
It's becoming very reminiscent of the Romney rampers on here in the last days leading up to the last US presidential election.
Lets face If they Tories end up scraping the most seats it will only be courtesy of the SNP surge north of the border.0 -
LADBROKES and SKYBETHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If you are on Betfair, Ukip over 2.5 at bigger than 1.83 is immense as is 6.4 or bigger 6-10 seats0 -
The correct term is PB ToriesOllyT said:But all the ToryPBers have been telling us for months that the Tories would be clearly ahead in the polls by now and heading for a majority. They now seem to have changed tack, the new mantra "all the polls are wrong and it's going to be 1992 all over again"
It's becoming very reminiscent of the Romney rampers on here in the last days leading up to the last US presidential election.
Lets face If they Tories end up scraping the most seats it will only be courtesy of the SNP surge north of the border. 0 -
The express should be interesting - ukip or con ?FrancisUrquhart said:
Whatever next, the Mirror endorsing Labour?Tykejohnno said:
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics
·
Sunday Telegraph: Vote in the national interest. Vote Conservative http://tgr.ph/1I1ZhES
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Could you remind us of what came out of your eve of poll ARSE in 2010?JackW said:
ARSE deniers like you were spewing the same guff in 2010 and yet ....IOS said:Jack
Thats a nonsense argument. And whats more you know it. It comes down to whether you believe that parties know what is going on reasonably well. Fact is they do. You can see from where the Tories are spending their money they don't believe your projections.
You started your prediction under the assumption the polls would move. They haven't. Why? Because the people of the UK today are not like the people of the UK you used to know.
The country has changed. Unfortunately your perception hasn't.0 -
IOS
"The country has changed. Unfortunately your perception hasn't."
That's an interesting thought. I was thinking today that the most energizing and unifying event these last five years has been Danny Boyle's Olympic opening ceremony which as much as anything was about a new Britain. It hit the zeitgeist like nothing else has come close to doing.
For those like me who wonder how Ed has managed to hang in there I think that might be the answer. Though Labour aren't precisely a match for Danny Boyle's vision they together with the SNP the Greens and Plaid are closer to it than anyone else with a chance of winning0 -
Showing a mock ballot paper in a poll shouldn't make a difference really.0
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I totally did individual registration for this election.Dair said:
It also indicates that the 1/100 price on Gorgeous George might be premature.taffys said:''If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.''
That article should strike fear into the heart of every labour backer, tipster, or pollster calling the election for them. It is further evidence the labour vote score is nowhere near the labour poll score. Not even close. Not even close to close.
6/4 on Crodydon Central? how about boll*cks.
BTW Scotland is NOT using the individual registration for this election, it is using the previous household register.0 -
Maybe both !!!!!Tykejohnno said:
The express should be interesting - ukip or con ?FrancisUrquhart said:
Whatever next, the Mirror endorsing Labour?Tykejohnno said:
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics
·
Sunday Telegraph: Vote in the national interest. Vote Conservative http://tgr.ph/1I1ZhES0 -
Survation poll coming up on the hour (with named candidates)0
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Ooh. That'll make it harder for anyone not happy with the result to question it, in one sense at least.bigjohnowls said:Survation poll coming up on the hour (with named candidates)
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Compromise, compromise??? It's a dirty word. The manifesto pure and unsullied I tell you!Big_G_NorthWales said:
In this election it is unlikely anyone will get all they want - there will have to be compromiseOllyT said:
I doubt it would even be the most popular result amongst supporters of one of the coalition parties let alone the whole countryBig_G_NorthWales said:
This election is far from over for David Cameron and it looks as if the present coalition may well continue which I would suggest would be the most popular resultSpeedy said:
Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.
Courtesy D Cameron & E Milliband.0 -
No - the BBC or Channel 4 endorsing Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:
Whatever next, the Mirror endorsing Labour?Tykejohnno said:
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics
·
Sunday Telegraph: Vote in the national interest. Vote Conservative http://tgr.ph/1I1ZhES0 -
There are more red lines than a Sunderland match...OldKingCole said:
Compromise, compromise??? It's a dirty word. The manifesto pure and unsullied I tell you!Big_G_NorthWales said:
In this election it is unlikely anyone will get all they want - there will have to be compromiseOllyT said:
I doubt it would even be the most popular result amongst supporters of one of the coalition parties let alone the whole countryBig_G_NorthWales said:
This election is far from over for David Cameron and it looks as if the present coalition may well continue which I would suggest would be the most popular resultSpeedy said:
Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.
Courtesy D Cameron & E Milliband.0 -
I don't know what bit of Scotland they are in but certainly not mine.SMukesh said:I was speaking to some Scottish Labour supporters earlier today and they were telling me the atmosphere in Scotland is feverish with pro-union supporters scared of putting their head above the parapet.
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Yes you did.Alistair said:
I totally did individual registration for this election.Dair said:
It also indicates that the 1/100 price on Gorgeous George might be premature.taffys said:''If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.''
That article should strike fear into the heart of every labour backer, tipster, or pollster calling the election for them. It is further evidence the labour vote score is nowhere near the labour poll score. Not even close. Not even close to close.
6/4 on Crodydon Central? how about boll*cks.
BTW Scotland is NOT using the individual registration for this election, it is using the previous household register.
But it's not being used.0 -
Personally I liked the New Statesman's endorsement of Ed and Labour, where it was "cheered by the emergence of our new multiparty democracy" before going on to essentially say that you can't risk actually voting for those other parties in a seat which matters this time around. I guess the assumption is Ed will reform the system so they support them voting such in future, but why would he want to reform it so that people being told not to risk voting Green but to vote Labour instead don't have to worry about that anymore? That would just cost him votes.0
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In the last week I have seen a Labour poster. That is the only LAbour poster I have seen in the last month.YBarddCwsc said:Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.
However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,
"The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.
This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”
So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.
Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?
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Welp.
Survation. @Survation · 10s 10 seconds ago
HEADLINE VI Survation/MoS LAB 34%; CON 31%; UKIP 17%; LD 8%; SNP 5%; GRE 4%; OTH 1% Tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/mosfgep2128_020515.pdf …0 -
Where is it then?0
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Survation. @Survation 36s36 seconds ago
HEADLINE VI Survation/MoS LAB 34%; CON 31%; UKIP 17%; LD 8%; SNP 5%; GRE 4%; OTH 1% Tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/mosfgep2128_020515.pdf …0 -
Clearly an outlier....
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PM Miliband.TheScreamingEagles said:
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Broken, entitled Lib Dems are finished.Danny565 said:Welp.
Survation. @Survation · 10s 10 seconds ago
HEADLINE VI Survation/MoS LAB 34%; CON 31%; UKIP 17%; LD 8%; SNP 5%; GRE 4%; OTH 1% Tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/mosfgep2128_020515.pdf …0 -
Tonights MASSIVE Survation EICIPM
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I presumed they already had ;-)weejonnie said:
No - the BBC or Channel 4 endorsing Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:
Whatever next, the Mirror endorsing Labour?Tykejohnno said:
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics
·
Sunday Telegraph: Vote in the national interest. Vote Conservative http://tgr.ph/1I1ZhES0 -
Survation/Mail on Sunday - Westminster Voting Intention: LAB lead by 3. CON 31, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 17, GRN 4.0
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Yeah, we're still really going to see Tories most seats right? Because if only the most positive polls for the Tories are correct...they still aren't certain to manage that. Oh wait.
Outlier (lots of them about apparently), late surge obviously going to happen, understated on day as well, surely people will wake up etc etc0 -
Fux sake. Going back to watching my film. G'night.0
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I am oneAlistair said:
In the last week I have seen a Labour poster. That is the only LAbour poster I have seen in the last month.YBarddCwsc said:Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.
However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,
"The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.
This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”
So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.
Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?0
