politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend genera
Comments
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Not sexist at all. Labour love everyone and give them free owls. Everyone apart from the working men and women of Britain, whom they are named for. They can't stand them.MP_SE said:
Labour cannot be sexist therefore the sex segregated rally is not in the slightest bit sexist.FrancisUrquhart said:
But is she beach body ready?dyedwoolie said:
Now, brothers, we have a very special little lady to talk to you. Please be respectful as she is very nervous, but Clement Attlee bless her for being a brave girl.FrancisUrquhart said:
Whoever she is, she is the "special" one that is allowed to sit with the men.AndreaParma_82 said:who is the woman? She doesn't look like the Yardley candidate. She's not the Ladywood MP. I guess she must a Cllr or a council candidate
FrancisUrquhart said:
Not just Mr Harriet Harman, Tom Watson, Khalid Mahmood, Liam Byrne, etc.TCPoliticalBetting said:A well loved figure of this site posts a pic of Mr Harriet Harman attending a sex segretated rally. One might ask where Labour's principles went?
https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040
Equality in action...but hey ho gotta win those votes.
I await the huge outrage on twitter to his photo of this Hodge Hill political rally...every day sexism and all that.0 -
I think postal votes favour Lab vs SNP, Lab vs UKIP, Con vs Lab. I don't have an idea how they breakdown with LibDems.
For London mayoral and assembly elections we have breakdown by ward with postal votes recorded separately....
2012 London Assembly constituency
Barnet and Camden
Postals Lab 40% Con 39%
On the day voting: Lab 46% Con 29%
Brent and Harrow
Postals Lab 40 COn 33
On the day Lab 50% Con 26%
Ealing and Hillingdon
Postals Con 45 Lab 33
On the day Lab 41 Con 36
Enfield and Haringey
Postals Lab 44 Con 34
On the day Lab 53 Con 24
Merton and Wandsworth
Postals Con 54 Lab 28
On the day Con 39 Lab 39
City and East (Barking, newham and Tower Hamlets)
Postals Lab58 Con 18
On the day Lab 64 Con 13
etch0 -
Many have pointed to reasons for the past inaccuracies and that pollsters now have corrected / adjusted for them. But this is the first GE where there are genuinely 5 parties getting significant % of the vote.tyson said:There is some justification to think that the average final polls will be at least 3% off beam.
The 1992 polls were about 8% wrong- Labour was about 1% ahead, the Tories won by 7%. The 2001 polls were nearly as bad averaging a 16% Labour lead, when actually it was about 9%. The 2005 polls overestimated the Labour lead by 3% too. The 2010 polls overestimated the LD's by 3-4%.
All the contra indications seem to appear that this years polling will likely be wrong en masse to at least the same extent since the variables are more complex.
Engrossing days cricket by the way.
The pollsters might be spot on regardless, but it wouldn't be surprised if they are out (in whose favour I don't know), but we are looking a much more complex picture than previous GE>0 -
Can I also just throw in an early......,.. Go Lynton!0
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PHONE POLL OUTLIER
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 40s41 seconds ago
Tonight's ComRes phone poll for IoS/S Mirror has with comparisons on last Tuesday poll
Con 33% -2
Lab 33% -2
LD 8% +1
UKIP 13% +2
GN 7% +1
EICIPM0 -
Cameron vs Miliband:
· More than three in five Britons think David Cameron is a capable leader, compared to less than two in five who say the same of Ed Miliband (63% v 38%).
· A fifth of Labour voters (19%) think Ed Miliband is not a capable leader, compared to just 2% of Conservative voters who think the same of David Cameron.
· However, British adults are more than twice as likely to think that David Cameron is heartless, compared to those who say the same of Ed Miliband (32% v 14%).
· In addition, adults in Britain are more likely to think David Cameron is too pleased with himself, compared to Ed Miliband (56% against 45%).0 -
Section 66A of the 1983 Act prohibits the publication before the close of poll of any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election where that statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be based on information given by voters after they have voted. Prima facie, that article falls within the prohibition, exposing the author to criminal liability, but it must be doubted whether proceedings would be instituted against him.Scrapheap_as_was said:Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-196830 -
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This article suggests that things are not looking good for Labour:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic0 -
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The Uncut piece (but it can be me as I read it fast and I can't appreciate all the finest virtue of English language) is a bit unclear if they are speaking about swings vs postals in 2010 or the row number of postals this year. It makes a lot of difference if it is the former or the latter.0
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Hmm, depending on tonight's YouGov, might Labour manage to snatch a lead in this week's ELBOW after all?0
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This is the website which claimed a while ago that Labour were in danger of losing Ashfield(!!).daodao said:This article suggests that things are not looking good for Labour:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic0 -
LAB most seats 5.1
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
If it continues this close then LAB looks set to win most seats0 -
UKIP highest with Comres since February0
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The great polling convergence continues.bigjohnowls said:PHONE POLL OUTLIER
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 40s41 seconds ago
Tonight's ComRes phone poll for IoS/S Mirror has with comparisons on last Tuesday poll
Con 33% -2
Lab 33% -2
LD 8% +1
UKIP 13% +2
GN 7% +1
EICIPM
Now all pollsters range from CON 32-36 most on 33-34, LAB 30-35 most on 33-34, UKIP 10-17 most on 13-15, LD 7-11 most on 8, GRN 4-8 most on 4-5.0 -
I suppose it's not worth instituting proceedings over, but the pollsters have a cause of action in equity against those who break an embargo for breach of confidence. On a practical note, however, if the pollsters and their clients want to retain the ability to publish the results exclusively, they should restrict their confidentiality ring to those who they can trust to maintain confidences!TheScreamingEagles said:People who break an embargo should be forced to read articles about the merits of AV over FPTP for a period of five years.
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But we keep being told, not least by OGH, that polling is now far more accurate as a result of more sophisticated methodology.tyson said:There is some justification to think that the average final polls will be at least 3% off beam.
The 1992 polls were about 8% wrong- Labour was about 1% ahead, the Tories won by 7%. The 2001 polls were nearly as bad averaging a 16% Labour lead, when actually it was about 9%. The 2005 polls overestimated the Labour lead by 3% too. The 2010 polls overestimated the LD's by 3-4%.
All the contra indications seem to appear that this years polling will likely be wrong en masse to at least the same extent since the variables are more complex.
Engrossing days cricket by the way.
Notwithstanding that some firms are STILL changing their methodology, even at this very late stage the so-called ultra accurate polls are still up to 7% apart in terms of the 2 main parties' headline share of the vote.
The mega shock of Major winning in 1992 couldn't possibly ever happen again we are told ..... well we shall find out soon enough.0 -
Latest UKIP support
14 - Yougov
14 - Comres
16 - Survation
15 - Populus
17 - Panelbase
10 - Ipsos Mori
14 - BMG
15 - TNS
11 - Lord Ashcroft
13 - ICM
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Exactly ! Labour vote goes in on the day. In fact, in the evening after tea ! That is why it is a high risk window regarding weather. [ and Coronation Street ! ]AndreaParma_82 said:I think postal votes favour Lab vs SNP, Lab vs UKIP, Con vs Lab. I don't have an idea how they breakdown with LibDems.
For London mayoral and assembly elections we have breakdown by ward with postal votes recorded separately....
2012 London Assembly constituency
Barnet and Camden
Postals Lab 40% Con 39%
On the day voting: Lab 46% Con 29%
Brent and Harrow
Postals Lab 40 COn 33
On the day Lab 50% Con 26%
Ealing and Hillingdon
Postals Con 45 Lab 33
On the day Lab 41 Con 36
Enfield and Haringey
Postals Lab 44 Con 34
On the day Lab 53 Con 24
Merton and Wandsworth
Postals Con 54 Lab 28
On the day Con 39 Lab 39
City and East (Barking, newham and Tower Hamlets)
Postals Lab58 Con 18
On the day Lab 64 Con 13
etch0 -
Evening all.
Re: ComRes poll - has there been any last minute tweakage? - I hear it's all the rage
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Ouch that capable leader results looks like a killer0
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Is Morris Dancer about and has he seen this ?? Apologies if already posted.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-325569300 -
Feb 1974, 1951 and 1929 were all within a point...Razedabode said:Have we ever had an election where the two main parties have finished on exactly the same vote share?
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Average 14%, close to the 16% they need to start winning seats without local factors.weejonnie said:Latest UKIP support
14 - Yougov
14 - Comres
16 - Survation
15 - Populus
17 - Panelbase
10 - Ipsos Mori
14 - BMG
15 - TNS
11 - Lord Ashcroft
13 - ICM
The range is closing in on the average now, gone are the days were ICM & Mori showed ukip on half the levels or less of Survation & TNS.0 -
Most important development of the day. Pulis does it again. Who would have thought a win at Old Trafford would be the baggies' passport to premier league next year!0
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All it takes is a complaint...Life_ina_market_town said:
Section 66A of the 1983 Act prohibits the publication before the close of poll of any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election where that statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be based on information given by voters after they have voted. Prima facie, that article falls within the prohibition, exposing the author to criminal liability, but it must be doubted whether proceedings would be instituted against him.Scrapheap_as_was said:Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-196830 -
Brand will endorse Miliband on Monday, I suspect.0
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Cameron can be happy on the capable leader score, but tbh neither leader can take overall comfort from those scores - Cameron trails behind MIliband on, quite significantly the problems facing Britain. It'll be interesting to see what YouGov say tonight, if it's in the realm of any Lab lead to a 1% Tory lead, then it looks like going into the last part of the campaign, Labour may well have a good chance at having the most seats. Given how badly it's been reported Miliband did in the QT debate, Lab will be relieved that (so far) the Tories have not pulled away significantly, and that it might not have been a game-changer.0
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I can see UKIP polling 17% - although I think 13% which would be an incredible result for them. But for the life of me I cannot see the Greens polling 7%.0
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The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?0
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Recent events in Tower Hamlets appear to show that the police now consider the Representation of the People Act 1983 a voluntary code to be followed should a candidate so choose, rather than the law of the land to be enforced.RobD said:All it takes is a complaint...
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But wait, only this morning JackW had the Tories ahead of Labour by 59, that's FIFTY NINE seats, 306 vs 247. One of the two is going to be so deliciously and humilitatingly wrong (please don't them both be equally wrong, that would just be too boring)bigjohnowls said:LAB most seats 5.1
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
If it continues this close then LAB looks set to win most seats0 -
Corrie mon, wed, fri.surbiton said:
Exactly ! Labour vote goes in on the day. In fact, in the evening after tea ! That is why it is a high risk window regarding weather. [ and Coronation Street ! ]AndreaParma_82 said:I think postal votes favour Lab vs SNP, Lab vs UKIP, Con vs Lab. I don't have an idea how they breakdown with LibDems.
For London mayoral and assembly elections we have breakdown by ward with postal votes recorded separately....
2012 London Assembly constituency
Barnet and Camden
Postals Lab 40% Con 39%
On the day voting: Lab 46% Con 29%
Brent and Harrow
Postals Lab 40 COn 33
On the day Lab 50% Con 26%
Ealing and Hillingdon
Postals Con 45 Lab 33
On the day Lab 41 Con 36
Enfield and Haringey
Postals Lab 44 Con 34
On the day Lab 53 Con 24
Merton and Wandsworth
Postals Con 54 Lab 28
On the day Con 39 Lab 39
City and East (Barking, newham and Tower Hamlets)
Postals Lab58 Con 18
On the day Lab 64 Con 13
etch
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Standard deviation is 2.13 - which gives a 17% chance that they are at that level (of course it also gives a 17% chance that they are on 11.8%) - assuming a normal distribution (risky with such differences in methodology). If you take out IPSOS Mori then the average goes up to 14.3 - but the standard deviation drops to 1.7 - virtually giving you the same answer (upwards).Speedy said:
Average 14%, close to the 16% they need to start winning seats without local factors.weejonnie said:Latest UKIP support
14 - Yougov
14 - Comres
16 - Survation
15 - Populus
17 - Panelbase
10 - Ipsos Mori
14 - BMG
15 - TNS
11 - Lord Ashcroft
13 - ICM
The range is closing in on the average now, gone are the days were ICM & Mori showed ukip on half the levels or less of Survation & TNS.0 -
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I backed Labour most seats at 5 today. I don't think it will happen, but it isn't a 4/1 shot.0
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In a sensible world, it would be 20-30.peter_from_putney said:
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Desperation?RodCrosby said:
Why would anyone seek the endorsement of such a dangerous narcissist?chestnut said:Brand will endorse Miliband on Monday, I suspect.
The Labour Uncut article implies that Ed's motives are driven by the need for votes, while Brand has said that the best bit of his Miliband interview was saved and will be released on Monday.
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if there is any truth in this article then we could be looking at 1992 again and a lot of egg on pollsters facesdaodao said:This article suggests that things are not looking good for Labour:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic0 -
The Ronnie o Sullivan thing is very nicely done.0
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Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.0 -
Talk about juxtaposition Bob Willis; he was the most exciting bowler in the world in his prime, steaming in, terrifying batters; but by god he is the most boring commentator known to man. I'm going to try and get one of his recordings to help solve my occasional insomnia.0
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Ssshhh .... I've kept it to myself and now you keep it to yourself too .... but ....peter_from_putney said:
But wait, only this morning JackW had the Tories ahead of Labour by 59, that's FIFTY NINE seats, 306 vs 247. One of the two is going to be so deliciously and humilitatingly wrong (please don't them both be equally wrong, that would just be too boring)bigjohnowls said:LAB most seats 5.1
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
If it continues this close then LAB looks set to win most seats
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
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This election is far from over for David Cameron and it looks as if the present coalition may well continue which I would suggest would be the most popular resultSpeedy said:
Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.
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Of course, he may be running a hare using your idea stated at the time.SeanT said:
That's a fairly startling article. Who is this guy? Can he be trusted?daodao said:This article suggests that things are not looking good for Labour:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic
I did wonder about the Brand thing, it looked so risky, and it told me - as I said at the time, on here - that it could only be the action of a party that feared it was losing.
Seems I was right, if that article is in any way correct.
But is it? Hmm. Curioser, and, yes, curioser. OK I'm off to buy a big fat steak and then drink a big fat red to go with.
If it is true though, it presages an epic failure of polling....0 -
That would be terrible idea.Life_ina_market_town said:
I suppose it's not worth instituting proceedings over, but the pollsters have a cause of action in equity against those who break an embargo for breach of confidence. On a practical note, however, if the pollsters and their clients want to retain the ability to publish the results exclusively, they should restrict their confidentiality ring to those who they can trust to maintain confidences!TheScreamingEagles said:People who break an embargo should be forced to read articles about the merits of AV over FPTP for a period of five years.
Because I know one day, I'm going to accidentally break an embargo due to premature posting.
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I'll give you a clue, the LAB-CON gap on 18-24 year olds is less than 10% in the opinion polls, that is because 20-25% vote Other, of course certainty to vote is 20-25% lower too from those 65+ of age.RodCrosby said:
Why would anyone seek the endorsement of such a dangerous narcissist?chestnut said:Brand will endorse Miliband on Monday, I suspect.
In total if he manages to get half of those voting Other or even increasing their voter participation by a little, nets about 1-2% to the Labour score.0 -
On those figures then UKIP would have to be z= 0.516 of a standard deviation above the average. Looking at the figures - this gives N(z) = 0.1985 so there is a 30% chance of UKIP polling over 15%Speedy said:
Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.
(= 0.5 - N(z))0 -
''if there is any truth in this article then we could be looking at 1992 again and a lot of egg on pollsters faces.''
See how they are all reverting to the mean like a bunch of children? They know they don;t have a clue and how its better to be wrong as a group so that no-one can get singled out.
I've been posting this for months but nobody listens. Labour's vote, with ed at the helm, does not add up to its poll score. Its either short or alarmingly short. This isn't conjecture, its fact.
Look at the euros. The polls and the commentariat had labour romping home. Then suddenly they were a good second. Then they only just beat the tories at an election where the voters were at liberty to protest at will.
It was a dreadful result. Then we had the excuses industry.0 -
Jack has seriously lost the plot when it comes to the number of Tory seats.
Think about it rationally - if Labour were going to make so few gains of the Tories it would have leaked by now.0 -
I did also wonder about Mr Palmer of this parish, when he said the other day he would be relaxed about his fate, "win or lose". It was the first time he had publically acknowledged that failure was a potential outcome.
Things that make you go " hmmmmmmm...."0 -
I am talking about many moons ago ! '80s.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
Corrie mon, wed, fri.surbiton said:
Exactly ! Labour vote goes in on the day. In fact, in the evening after tea ! That is why it is a high risk window regarding weather. [ and Coronation Street ! ]AndreaParma_82 said:I think postal votes favour Lab vs SNP, Lab vs UKIP, Con vs Lab. I don't have an idea how they breakdown with LibDems.
For London mayoral and assembly elections we have breakdown by ward with postal votes recorded separately....
2012 London Assembly constituency
Barnet and Camden
Postals Lab 40% Con 39%
On the day voting: Lab 46% Con 29%
Brent and Harrow
Postals Lab 40 COn 33
On the day Lab 50% Con 26%
Ealing and Hillingdon
Postals Con 45 Lab 33
On the day Lab 41 Con 36
Enfield and Haringey
Postals Lab 44 Con 34
On the day Lab 53 Con 24
Merton and Wandsworth
Postals Con 54 Lab 28
On the day Con 39 Lab 39
City and East (Barking, newham and Tower Hamlets)
Postals Lab58 Con 18
On the day Lab 64 Con 13
etch0 -
Jack old boy, I don't know if you saw my post earlier, but I have already instructed my solicitor to seek compensation if your illustrious cheeks are misleading since I have gambled the greater part of my inheritance on your fine posteriors predictions.JackW said:
Ssshhh .... I've kept it to myself and now you keep it to yourself too .... but ....peter_from_putney said:
But wait, only this morning JackW had the Tories ahead of Labour by 59, that's FIFTY NINE seats, 306 vs 247. One of the two is going to be so deliciously and humilitatingly wrong (please don't them both be equally wrong, that would just be too boring)bigjohnowls said:LAB most seats 5.1
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
If it continues this close then LAB looks set to win most seats
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
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Hills showing Dcipm/Eicipm crossover, both 10/11. Looks like great value on Eicipm to me.0
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If it is true though, it presages an epic failure of polling....
Look at Ashcroft's first poll of H&M. Look at how labour was pumped up as a serious challenge at Newark initially and were then wiped off the park with a disastrous result.
Why should the pollsters being getting it any more right now?
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Looking at the Com Res polling on most capable leader DC at 63, EM at 38 and heartless DC at 32 and EM at 14 ii is not completely surprising because a capable leader has to take hard decisions and when considering this, the two percentages are entirely predictable
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I would like to hear similar anecdotes from the tory side WRT postal votes, but it does seem to tally with the general zeitgeist that you pick up in everyday conversationstaffys said:''if there is any truth in this article then we could be looking at 1992 again and a lot of egg on pollsters faces.''
See how they are all reverting to the mean like a bunch of children? They know they don;t have a clue and how its better to be wrong as a group so that no-one can get singled out.
I've been posting this for months but nobody listens. Labour's vote, with ed at the helm, does not add up to its poll score. Its either short or alarmingly short. This isn't conjecture, its fact.
Look at the euros. The polls and the commentariat had labour romping home. Then suddenly they were a good second. Then they only just beat the tories at an election where the voters were at liberty to protest at will.
It was a dreadful result. Then we had the excuses industry.0 -
It just has!IOS said:Jack has seriously lost the plot when it comes to the number of Tory seats.
Think about it rationally - if Labour were going to make so few gains of the Tories it would have leaked by now.0 -
I'm on Labour Most Seats and a Tory Majority! The outcome is is serious doubt, given the divergence of opinion amongst pollsters. And the central seat bands being backed down to evens is ludicrous.antifrank said:I backed Labour most seats at 5 today. I don't think it will happen, but it isn't a 4/1 shot.
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ComRes: Con 33.2 Lab 32.6
The kindness of rounding.
LD Splitters: 22% Lab 18% Con0 -
Like the Labour List post above?IOS said:Jack has seriously lost the plot when it comes to the number of Tory seats.
Think about it rationally - if Labour were going to make so few gains of the Tories it would have leaked by now.0 -
it has: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panicIOS said:Jack has seriously lost the plot when it comes to the number of Tory seats.
Think about it rationally - if Labour were going to make so few gains of the Tories it would have leaked by now.0 -
surbiton said:
When did Labour ever lead on postal votes ? Bollocks !Scrapheap_as_was said:Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683
In the European Parliament elections of 2004 there was an experiment whereby four regions had all postal voting and the rest of the country had normal arrangements.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2004_(United_Kingdom)
Although turnout in those regions was higher, the results were almost exactly in line with what was expected when compared with the non-all postal regions.
Slim evidence I know but it could be that the rise in the use of postal voting has little or no effect on election results as a whole.0 -
You got another 4 days of campaigning max.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This election is far from over for David Cameron and it looks as if the present coalition may well continue which I would suggest would be the most popular resultSpeedy said:
Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.
I don't think the coalition has the seats necessary to continue, it will lose 20 seats to the left block just from the LD, and with the LD refusing to enter a coalition with the DUP or UKIP I think it's curtains.0 -
Think about it rationally - if Labour were going to make so few gains of the Tories it would have leaked by now.
Have you seen the betting markets mate? labour most seats at 5.1 - as Mr Owls pointed out.
These markets are at these prices for a reason. People think the polls are bullsh8t. They have for months.0 -
Philip
If you believe Labour list you know nothing about the party! Come on - you think if the senior party members knew Labour was doomed they wouldn't already be preparing their leadership challenges!0 -
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 19m19 minutes ago
@anthonypainter @AlbertoNardelli @MSmithsonPB @antonmccoy If Labour win most seats I'll streak everywhere for ever...
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells 2m2 minutes ago
@DPJHodges @anthonypainter Dan, you're so ready to threaten to streak I sometimes reckon you're just looking for an excuse to streak
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Dont believe it but who knows what the Necromancer McTernan has been doing.Scrapheap_as_was said:Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-196830 -
Peter-I've always made money on Jack's predictions, and am backing him again.peter_from_putney said:
But wait, only this morning JackW had the Tories ahead of Labour by 59, that's FIFTY NINE seats, 306 vs 247. One of the two is going to be so deliciously and humilitatingly wrong (please don't them both be equally wrong, that would just be too boring)bigjohnowls said:LAB most seats 5.1
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
If it continues this close then LAB looks set to win most seats
The winnings will of course mitigate the disappointment from the nights results. And, if I lose, heck- we get a Labour Govt.
BTW- I have never lost money on an election from memory- I have always come out on balance in profit. If Ed is PM next week, it'll be the first time I will lose.
And I have precisely 2-3 hours left before finalising my positions.
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Yeah, when he posted that I did stop and give it a moment of thought.MarqueeMark said:I did also wonder about Mr Palmer of this parish, when he said the other day he would be relaxed about his fate, "win or lose". It was the first time he had publically acknowledged that failure was a potential outcome.
Things that make you go " hmmmmmmm...."0 -
So there is a 50-50 chance of Dan Hodges breaking his promise to streak in public again.bigjohnowls said:Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 19m19 minutes ago
@anthonypainter @AlbertoNardelli @MSmithsonPB @antonmccoy If Labour win most seats I'll streak everywhere for ever...
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells 2m2 minutes ago
@DPJHodges @anthonypainter Dan, you're so ready to threaten to streak I sometimes reckon you're just looking for an excuse to streak0 -
My dear fellow I think you'll find the majority of our fellow citizens have yet to exercise their franchise .... to ensure that :IOS said:Jack has seriously lost the plot when it comes to the number of Tory seats.
Think about it rationally - if Labour were going to make so few gains of the Tories it would have leaked by now.
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
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What's surprising is that the proportion who think DC is capable is over double the Tory score. But the proportion who think he's heartless is less than the Labour score.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the Com Res polling on most capable leader DC at 63, EM at 38 and heartless DC at 32 and EM at 14 ii is not completely surprising because a capable leader has to take hard decisions and when considering this, the two percentages are entirely predictable
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I absolutely do not accept it is all over - almost anything is possible other than a labour majoritySpeedy said:
You got another 4 days of campaigning max.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This election is far from over for David Cameron and it looks as if the present coalition may well continue which I would suggest would be the most popular resultSpeedy said:
Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.
I don't think the coalition has the seats necessary to continue, it will lose 20 seats to the left block just from the LD, and with the LD refusing to enter a coalition with the DUP or UKIP I think it's curtains.0 -
Tbh LabourUncut have been consistently pursuing a negative Labour narrative in any way they possibly can in the last five years or so. They may well be right, but I'll wait till Thursday 8th May before I believe it. I sincerely doubt that Miliband visited Russell Brand to do an interview, which will be primarily seen and viewed by a young demographic, to save his situation in marginals, where older, more likely to vote groups are going to be key.0
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It has an effect on voter fraud.DeClare said:surbiton said:
When did Labour ever lead on postal votes ? Bollocks !Scrapheap_as_was said:Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683
In the European Parliament elections of 2004 there was an experiment whereby four regions had all postal voting and the rest of the country had normal arrangements.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2004_(United_Kingdom)
Although turnout in those regions was higher, the results were almost exactly in line with what was expected when compared with the non-all postal regions.
Slim evidence I know but it could be that the rise in the use of postal voting has little or no effect on election results as a whole.0 -
Better to be governed by the heartless than the clueless I suppose given that my party UKIP has no hope of actually winning it.TheScreamingEagles said:Cameron vs Miliband:
· More than three in five Britons think David Cameron is a capable leader, compared to less than two in five who say the same of Ed Miliband (63% v 38%).
· A fifth of Labour voters (19%) think Ed Miliband is not a capable leader, compared to just 2% of Conservative voters who think the same of David Cameron.
· However, British adults are more than twice as likely to think that David Cameron is heartless, compared to those who say the same of Ed Miliband (32% v 14%).
· In addition, adults in Britain are more likely to think David Cameron is too pleased with himself, compared to Ed Miliband (56% against 45%).0 -
Jack W
Interesting analysis - so you don't believe you can extrapolate from one type of vote to another....0 -
JIMMY!!
Sorry. Carry on.0 -
Nobody knows anything. That's the secret for betting on this election. The bets I have that worry me most reflect conventional wisdom.Tissue_Price said:
I'm on Labour Most Seats and a Tory Majority! The outcome is is serious doubt, given the divergence of opinion amongst pollsters. And the central seat bands being backed down to evens is ludicrous.antifrank said:I backed Labour most seats at 5 today. I don't think it will happen, but it isn't a 4/1 shot.
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ComRes is quite an old poll now, 28-30 April (Tues-Thurs) http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/05/02/comres-poll-labour-and-conservatives-tied/. Can't tell with the Opinium poll as the Observer article doesn't give the fieldwork dates, but if it's the same as last week's it will be Tues-Fri, In comparison, YouGov will be bang up to date: Fri-Sat.0
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It's not Labour list,it's Labour uncut.
This guy is even more upset that D M did not win than DH.
They have both spent the last 5 years trying to undermine Ed.
Ignore this article,it is just nonsense.0 -
Even I think Labour are gaining Broxtowe, and I'm predicting the Tories to get 300+ seats.MarqueeMark said:I did also wonder about Mr Palmer of this parish, when he said the other day he would be relaxed about his fate, "win or lose". It was the first time he had publically acknowledged that failure was a potential outcome.
Things that make you go " hmmmmmmm...."0 -
Still a dead heat? Gods, either the polls or the public are really boring.0
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Dan Hodges is finding a unique way of getting the Conservative vote out.0
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For this election I've been bearing in mind the pollsters' performances (in the last week) at the EP as well. They generally showed Labour being ahead of the Tories by 4 or 7 percent, this translated to a 1.3% lead. Interestingly the difference was made up by both underestimating Con and overestimating Lab.taffys said:''if there is any truth in this article then we could be looking at 1992 again and a lot of egg on pollsters faces.''
See how they are all reverting to the mean like a bunch of children? They know they don;t have a clue and how its better to be wrong as a group so that no-one can get singled out.
I've been posting this for months but nobody listens. Labour's vote, with ed at the helm, does not add up to its poll score. Its either short or alarmingly short. This isn't conjecture, its fact.
Look at the euros. The polls and the commentariat had labour romping home. Then suddenly they were a good second. Then they only just beat the tories at an election where the voters were at liberty to protest at will.
It was a dreadful result. Then we had the excuses industry.
(If one of the reasons for that was the Ed effect - then it could be much bigger in an election where people are actually electing Ed.)0 -
The Scottish bit was curious.enfant said:It's not Labour list,it's Labour uncut.
This guy is even more upset that D M did not win than DH.
They have both spent the last 5 years trying to undermine Ed.
Ignore this article,it is just nonsense.0 -
The opinium fieldework was also the 28th to the 30th of AprilJohnLilburne said:ComRes is quite an old poll now, 28-30 April (Tues-Thurs) http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/05/02/comres-poll-labour-and-conservatives-tied/. Can't tell with the Opinium poll as the Observer article doesn't give the fieldwork dates, but if it's the same as last week's it will be Tues-Fri, I(n comparison, YouGov will be bang up to date: Fri-Sat.
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Without scotland, Labour needs to be 5% ahead for a majority.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I absolutely do not accept it is all over - almost anything is possible other than a labour majoritySpeedy said:
You got another 4 days of campaigning max.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This election is far from over for David Cameron and it looks as if the present coalition may well continue which I would suggest would be the most popular resultSpeedy said:
Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.
I don't think the coalition has the seats necessary to continue, it will lose 20 seats to the left block just from the LD, and with the LD refusing to enter a coalition with the DUP or UKIP I think it's curtains.
The Tories need to be 10% ahead for a majority.
For the coalition to have a majority the Tories need to be 7% ahead.0 -
Labour Uncut has had articles negative articles before, but it has also had upbeat articles.
However, Hatwal alleges that resources are being switched to Scotland,
"The opinion polls deal with Scotland as a whole where the huge reserves of SNP support in places like Glasgow deliver blow-out figures that suggest almost every Labour MP will lose their seat. However on a constituency basis, the distribution of support is much more even and Labour is competitive in seats that the polls suggest are lost. According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable.
This is why so many Labour resources have been moved north of the border and the party has pivoted its campaign towards Scotland.”
So, some clue as to whether the article has a basis in reality might be to decide whether this claim is correct.
Over to our Scottish posters -- has there really been an upsurge in Labour resources north of the border in recent days?0 -
It's worth looking up the PB thread immediately following the 2010 exit poll if you want to see the true value of conventional wisdom.0
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Focussing on Scotland will just make it easier for the Tories in England.antifrank said:
The Scottish bit was curious.enfant said:It's not Labour list,it's Labour uncut.
This guy is even more upset that D M did not win than DH.
They have both spent the last 5 years trying to undermine Ed.
Ignore this article,it is just nonsense.0 -
Regrettably I've left my PB duties to dine in town and thus I escaped the machinations of OGH's fine organ but rest assured your advocates bill for May will be minimal.tyson said:
Jack old boy, I don't know if you saw my post earlier, but I have already instructed my solicitor to seek compensation if your illustrious cheeks are misleading since I have gambled the greater part of my inheritance on your fine posteriors predictions.JackW said:
Ssshhh .... I've kept it to myself and now you keep it to yourself too .... but ....peter_from_putney said:
But wait, only this morning JackW had the Tories ahead of Labour by 59, that's FIFTY NINE seats, 306 vs 247. One of the two is going to be so deliciously and humilitatingly wrong (please don't them both be equally wrong, that would just be too boring)bigjohnowls said:LAB most seats 5.1
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
If it continues this close then LAB looks set to win most seats
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
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Labour will not get a majoritySpeedy said:
Without scotland, Labour needs to be 5% ahead for a majority.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I absolutely do not accept it is all over - almost anything is possible other than a labour majoritySpeedy said:
You got another 4 days of campaigning max.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This election is far from over for David Cameron and it looks as if the present coalition may well continue which I would suggest would be the most popular resultSpeedy said:
Not yet, if they move up a bit further on the average in the last days then yes.isam said:The Ukip 15-20% range must be value at 10-3?
Not many days of campaigning left, the royal baby is sucking all the publicity from the GE, that and voter fatigue maybe a plus for protest parties which UKIP is one of them, also there is the danger that Tory voters seeing that it's over and Miliband will become PM might vote UKIP as a protest.
I don't think the coalition has the seats necessary to continue, it will lose 20 seats to the left block just from the LD, and with the LD refusing to enter a coalition with the DUP or UKIP I think it's curtains.
The Tories need to be 10% ahead for a majority.
For the coalition to have a majority the Tories need to be 7% ahead.0 -
The best for forecasting the Con-Lab gap at the Euros were ICM.
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