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edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend general election polls

After a CON lead of 1% last week tonight's Opinium/Observer poll has
CON 35
LAB 34
LD 8
UKIP 13
GTN 5

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JohnO
    JohnO Posts: 4,312
    First, like David Cameron
  • GeoffH
    GeoffH Posts: 56
    Second, like Red Ed
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,610
    Third, like the SNP? :D
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    3rd rate like NUFC's manager...
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    Who has been spotted where on labourdoorstep today so far? Not including those in their constituencies...and those who don't tweet!

    Cooper: Pudsey
    Maria Eagle: Bolton West
    Reeves: Halifax
    Balls: Norwich South
    Burnham: Swindon South, Bristol West, Kingswood, Stroud,
    Gordon Brown: East Renfrewshire
    Owen Smith: Glamorgan
    Flint: Lincoln
    Ivan Lewis: Weaver Vale
    Trickett: Dewsbury
    Berger: Wirral West
    Lammy: Croydon Central
    Nottingham South MP: Sherwood
    Kate Green (Stretford & Urmston): Carlisle
    Sharon Hodgson (Sunderland and Washington somecompasspoint, IIRC, West): Stockton South
    Neath AM: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
    Cardiff South AM: Glamorgan
    General Secretary: Bedford, Cambridge
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Fourth like the yellow peril
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Why are the LDs gradually tanking in SPIN ?
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Why are the LDs gradually tanking in SPIN ?

    Because they are going to be hammered by SNP, lab and tories?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Dr. Parma, cheers for that information.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    I wonder if Balls had some urgent business at Carrow Road...

    Must be a happy coincidence for him.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    taffys said:

    Why are the LDs gradually tanking in SPIN ?

    Because they are going to be hammered by SNP, lab and tories?

    Like someone who earns a living by the dockside ?
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683
  • valleyboy
    valleyboy Posts: 606
    Soaking wet after a day on the doorstep in Pembrokeshire. Decent response but hell of a lot of people out. Where were they!
    Anecdote alert... heard that vale of Glamorgan looking interesting for labour. Tories have given up on Cardiff North.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    Lol. As if were going to fall for their reverse psychology
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    LD 11-20 seats still available at 4-1 with Ladbrokes.

    I'm maxed out.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    valleyboy said:

    Soaking wet after a day on the doorstep in Pembrokeshire. Decent response but hell of a lot of people out. Where were they!


    Hiding behind the sofa?
  • valleyboy
    valleyboy Posts: 606
    GIN1138 said:

    valleyboy said:

    Soaking wet after a day on the doorstep in Pembrokeshire. Decent response but hell of a lot of people out. Where were they!


    Hiding behind the sofa?
    Probably thought we were Jehovah witnesses!
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    dyedwoolie said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    Lol. As if were going to fall for their reverse psychology
    i can quite believe that Scotland isn't going to be quite as terrible for Slab as the polls suggest...
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    valleyboy said:

    Soaking wet after a day on the doorstep in Pembrokeshire. Decent response but hell of a lot of people out. Where were they!
    Anecdote alert... heard that vale of Glamorgan looking interesting for labour. Tories have given up on Cardiff North.

    Troll alert.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2015
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    Lol. As if were going to fall for their reverse psychology
    i can quite believe that Scotland isn't going to be quite as terrible for Slab as the polls suggest...
    Nor the Tories, perhaps?!
    It does smack of reverse psychology though :-)
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,610
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    Could be completely fake, but written to fire up the base?
  • saddo
    saddo Posts: 534
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    dyedwoolie said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    Lol. As if were going to fall for their reverse psychology
    i can quite believe that Scotland isn't going to be quite as terrible for Slab as the polls suggest...
    Nor the Tories, perhaps?!
    It does smack of reverse psychology though :-)
    I know what you are saying and if it were labourlist then I'd definitely be sniffy but labour uncut are hardly cheerleaders... someone might have fed them a line though.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited May 2015
    .
  • Steven_Whaley
    Steven_Whaley Posts: 313
    valleyboy said:



    Probably thought we were Jehovah witnesses!

    It turned out to be Jehovah's Witnesses last time I opened my door thinking it was going to be political campaigners. I was disappointed not to get the chance to rant a bit...

  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    LD 11-20 seats still available at 4-1 with Ladbrokes.

    I'm maxed out.

    Defo value !
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Who has been spotted where on labourdoorstep today so far? Not including those in their constituencies...and those who don't tweet!


    Gordon Brown: East Renfrewshire

    He was campaigning with Jim Murphy but for some reason they were at Silverburn which isn't in East Ren, it's in Glasgow South West.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Fourth like the yellow peril

    Might be a bit hasty there.
  • valleyboy
    valleyboy Posts: 606
    Chameleon said:



    valleyboy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    valleyboy said:

    Soaking wet after a day on the doorstep in Pembrokeshire. Decent response but hell of a lot of people out. Where were they!


    Hiding behind the sofa?
    Probably thought we were Jehovah witnesses!
    What sort of response was your party getting?
    I'm not in cloud cuckoo land and realise that to win Preseli is going to be difficult, but we have a good high profile local candidate. Responses were good, we were working a favourable labour area and we will get more votes than last time, but whether it will be enough, time will tell,.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    saddo said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.
    Surely postal ballots demographics are likely to come up with a Tory bias? I'm thinking the retired and those on foreign jollies with work for a start.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LD 11-20 seats still available at 4-1 with Ladbrokes.

    I'm maxed out.

    Defo value !
    For the record, Subiton, I think you're going to be very disappointed how few Labour gains there are from the LibDems - I reckon 8 is the max you can hope for. (Six easy gains, then two of Bradford East, H&WG, Cardiff Central, and Birmingham Yardley.)
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    I suspect that the parties report back how many postal ballots they have "procured" to send back themselves. Perhaps they are only just realising that the numbers of fictitious voters they may have allegedly once relied upon are no longer there.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    OK. I read Braehead Shopping Centre and I thought it was in ER. The postcode places it in Paisley and Renfrewshire North
    Dair said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Who has been spotted where on labourdoorstep today so far? Not including those in their constituencies...and those who don't tweet!


    Gordon Brown: East Renfrewshire

    He was campaigning with Jim Murphy but for some reason they were at Silverburn which isn't in East Ren, it's in Glasgow South West.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    FPT

    SeanT: Because 1. I don't understand spread betting, and 2. in the time it would take me to master it, I could probably earn £1000 from writing, which I doubt I would win from the bookies.

    It's really not that complicated. In this instance, you would SELL the Tories at 288 seats for say £20 per seat. You would then make a profit of £20 for every seat they won short of 288 seats and you'd lose £20 for every seat they won over and above 288 seats, not too difficult a concept to grasp is it really? On your latest assessment of them winning around 273 seats, a bet such as this would earn you circa £300 (i.e. £20 x 288 - 273). Some way below your £1,000 for doing a little writing, but not that taxing surely. The boring bit is spending all of 5 minutes online, opening your account.
    Are you attending the PB.com all-nighter in the Earls Court hostelry btw?
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    When did Labour ever lead on postal votes ? Bollocks !
  • saddo
    saddo Posts: 534
    rottenborough said:

    saddo said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.
    Surely postal ballots demographics are likely to come up with a Tory bias? I'm thinking the retired and those on foreign jollies with work for a start.
    Almost certainly in actual real voter terms but not with the ways and means Labour's local level machine "influenced" student houses, local communities etc in previous elections.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    surbiton said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    When did Labour ever lead on postal votes ? Bollocks !
    The thing is this Labour Uncut who are hardly cheerleaders for the reds. If it was labour list and trying a double bluff I'd be more suspicious.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    What an endorsement..... well it's better than coming from TPD.

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell·4 secs5 seconds ago
    @MSmithsonPB really is the one man content provider when it comes to polling. The must-follow for this election ....
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LD 11-20 seats still available at 4-1 with Ladbrokes.

    I'm maxed out.

    Defo value !
    For the record, Subiton, I think you're going to be very disappointed how few Labour gains there are from the LibDems - I reckon 8 is the max you can hope for. (Six easy gains, then two of Bradford East, H&WG, Cardiff Central, and Birmingham Yardley.)
    You appear to be sanguine about Bermondsey or is it part of your six.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 27s27 seconds ago
    @SunPolitics it would be quite surprising if your own poll wasn't EXCLUSIVE!! Lol
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Probably only the thing Carswell's got right since August 2014

    https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/594560387707772928
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Umm, interesting Labour Uncut piece. It could be reverse psychology but the author has been bearish about Labour for a while and is a serious writer. Although the polls look closer that the Tories would want at this stage they don't seem to be panicking so maybe the postal ballots and the private polling is better for then than the public polls suggest.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited May 2015
    surbiton said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wow wow wow - for so many reasons, not least is this legal? I'm not sure I believe this!!

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/#more-19683

    When did Labour ever lead on postal votes ? Bollocks !
    Can you remember THAT TWEET in the 2010 Election - it was about a massive Labour support in a postal vote count. Game ON!

    Of course it could be that the requirement to register in person for postal voting has triply-decimated Labour's creativity in that department.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    shortly there will be an election....

    Siôn Simon‏@sionsimon·2 hrs2 hours ago
    Last weekend before the election? Must be Hodge Hill rally time pic.twitter.com/q5P17oaGXL

    Nick Cohen‏@NickCohen4·26 mins26 minutes ago
    Nick Cohen retweeted Siôn Simon
    Labour candidate addresses sex segregated audience without seeming to know or care


    Tom is there too....
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    rcs1000 said:

    LD 11-20 seats still available at 4-1 with Ladbrokes.

    I'm maxed out.

    There'll be no sherry trifle for you after lunch at Mum & Dad's tomorrow. When I had the temerity to suggest several weeks that the LibDems might score as few as 24 seats, I was accused of being a denier (whatever that means).
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    OK. I read Braehead Shopping Centre and I thought it was in ER. The postcode places it in Paisley and Renfrewshire North

    Dair said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Who has been spotted where on labourdoorstep today so far? Not including those in their constituencies...and those who don't tweet!


    Gordon Brown: East Renfrewshire

    He was campaigning with Jim Murphy but for some reason they were at Silverburn which isn't in East Ren, it's in Glasgow South West.
    Actually you'r right it was Braehead not Silverburn and yeah still not in East Ren.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    A well loved figure of this site posts a pic of Mr Harriet Harman attending a sex segretated rally. One might ask where Labour's principles went?

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,095
    What on earth is this cartoon? What is the actual joke or humorous content here?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Tonights ComRes EICIPM
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,610
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights ComRes EICIPM

    The numbers would be nice.... :p
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    New Comres poll just partially revealed on @Channel4News - Cons and Lab both on 33 #GE2015

    EICIPM
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights ComRes EICIPM

    Good luck trying to govern. Next few weeks are going to be interesting..
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    What on earth is this cartoon? What is the actual joke or humorous content here?

    Agreed - pretty crap and meaningless.
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    valleyboy said:

    Chameleon said:



    valleyboy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    valleyboy said:

    Soaking wet after a day on the doorstep in Pembrokeshire. Decent response but hell of a lot of people out. Where were they!


    Hiding behind the sofa?
    Probably thought we were Jehovah witnesses!
    What sort of response was your party getting?
    I'm not in cloud cuckoo land and realise that to win Preseli is going to be difficult, but we have a good high profile local candidate. Responses were good, we were working a favourable labour area and we will get more votes than last time, but whether it will be enough, time will tell,.
    Ashcroft polls has massive Labour leads in Cardiff North and Central and a 6 point Tory lead in Vale of Glamorgan in February.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    A well loved figure of this site posts a pic of Mr Harriet Harman attending a sex segretated rally. One might ask where Labour's principles went?

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040

    There's not much Labour won't do to get some votes. Gays please note.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,610
    bigjohnowls said:

    New Comres poll just partially revealed on @Channel4News - Cons and Lab both on 33 #GE2015

    EICIPM

    Who knows, the LDs could be on 33 too. Would EICIPM still hold? :D
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LD 11-20 seats still available at 4-1 with Ladbrokes.

    I'm maxed out.

    Defo value !
    For the record, Subiton, I think you're going to be very disappointed how few Labour gains there are from the LibDems - I reckon 8 is the max you can hope for. (Six easy gains, then two of Bradford East, H&WG, Cardiff Central, and Birmingham Yardley.)
    You appear to be sanguine about Bermondsey or is it part of your six.
    Not one the six. But I think you miss the gentrification in Southwark that will take it permanently out of the labour column eventually.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,740
    edited May 2015
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    A well loved figure of this site posts a pic of Mr Harriet Harman attending a sex segretated rally. One might ask where Labour's principles went?

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040

    Not just Mr Harriet Harman, Tom Watson, Khalid Mahmood, Liam Byrne, etc.

    Equality in action...but hey ho gotta win those votes. What want the audience would make of Mr Harriet Harman internet viewing habits if they knew?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I'd imagine a lot o£f SLAB voters left would be older types so he they are pro ably fine on portals.

    @Peter_From_Putney Heading to the Finborough for election... - would be good to see you in your frock ;)
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Is the ComRes poll phone or online?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    RobD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    New Comres poll just partially revealed on @Channel4News - Cons and Lab both on 33 #GE2015

    EICIPM

    Who knows, the LDs could be on 33 too. Would EICIPM still hold? :D
    UKIP on 1% SNP 0%!!!
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    who is the woman? She doesn't look like the Yardley candidate. She's not the Ladywood MP. I guess she must a Cllr or a council candidate
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    A well loved figure of this site posts a pic of Mr Harriet Harman attending a sex segretated rally. One might ask where Labour's principles went?

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040

    Not just Mr Harriet Harman, Tom Watson, Khalid Mahmood, Liam Byrne, etc.

    Equality in action...but hey ho gotta win those votes.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd imagine a lot o£f SLAB voters left would be older types so he they are pro ably fine on portals.

    Agreed, if the Labour Uncut thing is a true statement, then Labour being out of it in 20 and even in 20 means they are losing all. I can't think of any scenario where Labour will do better on In Person voting in Scotland than they do on Postal Ballots.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 2m2 minutes ago
    @TSEofPB ComRes is 33-33 apparently.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2015
    ''If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.''

    That article should strike fear into the heart of every labour backer, tipster, or pollster calling the election for them. It is further evidence the labour vote score is nowhere near the labour poll score in England. Not even close. Not even close to close.

    6/4 on Croydon Central? how about boll*cks.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,740
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    who is the woman? She doesn't look like the Yardley candidate. She's not the Ladywood MP. I guess she must a Cllr or a council candidate

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    A well loved figure of this site posts a pic of Mr Harriet Harman attending a sex segretated rally. One might ask where Labour's principles went?

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040

    Not just Mr Harriet Harman, Tom Watson, Khalid Mahmood, Liam Byrne, etc.

    Equality in action...but hey ho gotta win those votes.
    Whoever she is, she is the "special" one that is allowed to sit with the men.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    taffys said:

    ''If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.''

    That article should strike fear into the heart of every labour backer, tipster, or pollster calling the election for them. It is further evidence the labour vote score is nowhere near the labour poll score. Not even close. Not even close to close.

    6/4 on Crodydon Central? how about boll*cks.

    It also indicates that the 1/100 price on Gorgeous George might be premature.

    BTW Scotland is NOT using the individual registration for this election, it is using the previous household register.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 17s17 seconds ago
    Coming up at 7.30pm - although some have broken the embargo already, is the ComRes phone poll for the IoS/S Mirror.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    who is the woman? She doesn't look like the Yardley candidate. She's not the Ladywood MP. I guess she must a Cllr or a council candidate

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    A well loved figure of this site posts a pic of Mr Harriet Harman attending a sex segretated rally. One might ask where Labour's principles went?

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040

    Not just Mr Harriet Harman, Tom Watson, Khalid Mahmood, Liam Byrne, etc.

    Equality in action...but hey ho gotta win those votes.
    Whoever she is, she is the "special" one that is allowed to sit with the men.
    Now, brothers, we have a very special little lady to talk to you. Please be respectful as she is very nervous, but Clement Attlee bless her for being a brave girl.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited May 2015
    RobD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    New Comres poll just partially revealed on @Channel4News - Cons and Lab both on 33 #GE2015

    EICIPM

    Who knows, the LDs could be on 33 too. Would EICIPM still hold? :D
    Good for UKIP? Hence no mention? 35 35 7 11 was the last one.

    (Boycott complaining about English bowling with the West Indies 107-6!)
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    edited May 2015
    taffys said:

    ''If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.''

    That article should strike fear into the heart of every labour backer, tipster, or pollster calling the election for them. It is further evidence the labour vote score is nowhere near the labour poll score. Not even close. Not even close to close.

    6/4 on Crodydon Central? how about boll*cks.

    Labour vote appears so soft, anti-Labour vote is energised - at least in the South of England. Incidentally, from discussions I've had on doorsteps, this election also seems to be the first where LDs will experience tactical voting against them.

  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Its hardly surprising the pollsters are all desperately reverting to the mean because few of them have a clue what is going to happen.

    At least if they fail as a group, its harder for those fools paying them money for results to weed out the bad guys.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd imagine a lot o£f SLAB voters left would be older types so he they are pro ably fine on portals.

    @Peter_From_Putney Heading to the Finborough for election... - would be good to see you in your frock ;)

    Sorry to have to disappoint you, but on the frock front I rather fear you are confusing me with a similarly named PBer. That's a crisp oncer you owe the site's Social & Welfare Fund.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    edited May 2015
    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 36s36 seconds ago
    The last 10 opinion polls. Only one of them (Mori) would see Cameron have a chance of forming a govt.

    LAB most seats now 5.1
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    taffys said:

    Its hardly surprising the pollsters are all desperately reverting to the mean because few of them have a clue what is going to happen.

    At least if they fail as a group, its harder for those fools paying them money for results to weed out the bad guys.

    Only the Good Lord and ICM are forging ahead regardless, lol
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    Have we ever had an election where the two main parties have finished on exactly the same vote share?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Dair said:

    taffys said:

    ''If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.''

    That article should strike fear into the heart of every labour backer, tipster, or pollster calling the election for them. It is further evidence the labour vote score is nowhere near the labour poll score. Not even close. Not even close to close.

    6/4 on Crodydon Central? how about boll*cks.

    It also indicates that the 1/100 price on Gorgeous George might be premature.b

    BTW Scotland is NOT using the individual registration for this election, it is using the previous household register.
    I am quietly confident Gorgeous will ha e "got out" the vote. 6-4 Rahman hosed up nicely in the locals
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    dyedwoolie said:

    taffys said:

    Its hardly surprising the pollsters are all desperately reverting to the mean because few of them have a clue what is going to happen.

    At least if they fail as a group, its harder for those fools paying them money for results to weed out the bad guys.

    Only the Good Lord and ICM and MORI are forging ahead regardless, lol
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,740
    edited May 2015
    dyedwoolie said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    who is the woman? She doesn't look like the Yardley candidate. She's not the Ladywood MP. I guess she must a Cllr or a council candidate

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    A well loved figure of this site posts a pic of Mr Harriet Harman attending a sex segretated rally. One might ask where Labour's principles went?

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040

    Not just Mr Harriet Harman, Tom Watson, Khalid Mahmood, Liam Byrne, etc.

    Equality in action...but hey ho gotta win those votes.
    Whoever she is, she is the "special" one that is allowed to sit with the men.
    Now, brothers, we have a very special little lady to talk to you. Please be respectful as she is very nervous, but Clement Attlee bless her for being a brave girl.
    But is she beach body ready?

    I await the huge outrage on twitter to his photo of this Hodge Hill political rally...every day sexism and all that.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    bigjohnowls said:

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 36s36 seconds ago
    The last 10 opinion polls. Only one of them (Mori) would see Cameron have a chance of forming a govt.

    LAB most seats still 4.9?

    When you factor in the Scottish Losses (say 35) and the Tories having a 50 seat lead Labour need to make 43 gains from the tories AND the difference in Lib Dem Wins - UKIP losses to reach most seats. Pretty unlikely. (but maybe better than 4.9). I would still expect a last minute/ last second swing to the Tories.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Mortimer said:

    taffys said:

    ''If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.''

    That article should strike fear into the heart of every labour backer, tipster, or pollster calling the election for them. It is further evidence the labour vote score is nowhere near the labour poll score. Not even close. Not even close to close.

    6/4 on Crodydon Central? how about boll*cks.

    Labour vote appears so soft, anti-Labour vote is energised - at least in the South of England. Incidentally, from discussions I've had on doorsteps, this election also seems to be the first where LDs will experience tactical voting against them.

    Such bullshit !
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    who is the woman? She doesn't look like the Yardley candidate. She's not the Ladywood MP. I guess she must a Cllr or a council candidate

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    A well loved figure of this site posts a pic of Mr Harriet Harman attending a sex segretated rally. One might ask where Labour's principles went?

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040

    Not just Mr Harriet Harman, Tom Watson, Khalid Mahmood, Liam Byrne, etc.

    Equality in action...but hey ho gotta win those votes.
    Whoever she is, she is the "special" one that is allowed to sit with the men.
    Now, brothers, we have a very special little lady to talk to you. Please be respectful as she is very nervous, but Clement Attlee bless her for being a brave girl.
    But is she beach body ready?

    I await the huge outrage on twitter to his photo of this Hodge Hill political rally...every day sexism and all that.
    Labour bigotry is honourable bigotry in the Union tradition
  • calum
    calum Posts: 3,046
    To avoid the public humiliation of involving real voters who often seem to change their minds, SLAB are resorting to just making names up as supposed authors of letters praising Sanwar. I suppose if you just make people up then at least they can't cause problems down the line:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/neighbours.jpg
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    taffys said:

    ''If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.''

    That article should strike fear into the heart of every labour backer, tipster, or pollster calling the election for them. It is further evidence the labour vote score is nowhere near the labour poll score. Not even close. Not even close to close.

    6/4 on Crodydon Central? how about boll*cks.

    Labour vote appears so soft, anti-Labour vote is energised - at least in the South of England. Incidentally, from discussions I've had on doorsteps, this election also seems to be the first where LDs will experience tactical voting against them.

    Such bullshit !
    One can only laugh at fanatical posters!
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    bigjohnowls said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 17s17 seconds ago
    Coming up at 7.30pm - although some have broken the embargo already, is the ComRes phone poll for the IoS/S Mirror.

    Both you and OGH are clearly getting excited at the prospect of the upcoming ComRes poll - I'll take that as indicative of a 3%+ Labour lead then.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Superb stuff.

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/594441622814924801
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    But did you THREATEN to overrule him?
  • CD13
    CD13 Posts: 6,386
    edited May 2015
    "Labour bigotry is honourable bigotry in the Union tradition."

    Labour are good at the three aitches ... hyperbole, hypocrisy, and in picking Ed, hidiocy.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    dyedwoolie said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    taffys said:

    Its hardly surprising the pollsters are all desperately reverting to the mean because few of them have a clue what is going to happen.

    At least if they fail as a group, its harder for those fools paying them money for results to weed out the bad guys.

    Only the Good Lord and ICM and MORI are forging ahead regardless, lol
    I'm a blacksmith and I'm still forging ahead I'll have you know.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    surbiton said:

    Mortimer said:

    taffys said:

    ''If this is anything close to true, given Labour supporters less than lilly white record with postal votes, they really are in serious brown stuff.''

    That article should strike fear into the heart of every labour backer, tipster, or pollster calling the election for them. It is further evidence the labour vote score is nowhere near the labour poll score. Not even close. Not even close to close.

    6/4 on Crodydon Central? how about boll*cks.

    Labour vote appears so soft, anti-Labour vote is energised - at least in the South of England. Incidentally, from discussions I've had on doorsteps, this election also seems to be the first where LDs will experience tactical voting against them.

    Such bullshit !
    I see punctuation is still troubling you.

    I'm not saying all is rosy for the Tories nationwide, but I've literally never seen such negative reactions in the South to Liberals/Labour. I am too young to remember what happens when the left goes all class envy/higher taxes etc, but presumably this was what 83-92 was like.....

  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    calum said:

    To avoid the public humiliation of involving real voters who often seem to change their minds, SLAB are resorting to just making names up as supposed authors of letters praising Sanwar. I suppose if you just make people up then at least they can't cause problems down the line:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/neighbours.jpg

    I had mine hand delivered this afternoon.

    It is the first time anything has been hand delivered by SLAB. It also got my area wrong, saying Kinning Park instead of Ibrox.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    People who break an embargo should be forced to read articles about the merits of AV over FPTP for a period of five years.
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    I was speaking to some Scottish Labour supporters earlier today and they were telling me the atmosphere in Scotland is feverish with pro-union supporters scared of putting their head above the parapet.

  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    who is the woman? She doesn't look like the Yardley candidate. She's not the Ladywood MP. I guess she must a Cllr or a council candidate

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    A well loved figure of this site posts a pic of Mr Harriet Harman attending a sex segretated rally. One might ask where Labour's principles went?

    https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040

    Not just Mr Harriet Harman, Tom Watson, Khalid Mahmood, Liam Byrne, etc.

    Equality in action...but hey ho gotta win those votes.
    Whoever she is, she is the "special" one that is allowed to sit with the men.
    Now, brothers, we have a very special little lady to talk to you. Please be respectful as she is very nervous, but Clement Attlee bless her for being a brave girl.
    But is she beach body ready?

    I await the huge outrage on twitter to his photo of this Hodge Hill political rally...every day sexism and all that.
    Labour cannot be sexist therefore the sex segregated rally is not in the slightest bit sexist.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    peter_from_putney said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 17s17 seconds ago
    Coming up at 7.30pm - although some have broken the embargo already, is the ComRes phone poll for the IoS/S Mirror.

    Both you and OGH are clearly getting excited at the prospect of the upcoming ComRes poll - I'll take that as indicative of a 3%+ Labour lead then.
    See my post at 7.12
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    People who break an embargo should be forced to read articles about the merits of AV over FPTP for a period of five years.

    Is comedy results out yet ?
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    There is some justification to think that the average final polls will be at least 3% off beam.

    The 1992 polls were about 8% wrong- Labour was about 1% ahead, the Tories won by 7%. The 2001 polls were nearly as bad averaging a 16% Labour lead, when actually it was about 9%. The 2005 polls overestimated the Labour lead by 3% too. The 2010 polls overestimated the LD's by 3-4%.

    All the contra indications seem to appear that this years polling will likely be wrong en masse to at least the same extent since the variables are more complex.

    Engrossing days cricket by the way.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    The tories probably aren't panicking because they probably suspect that in England at least, their vote will turn out. They can depend upon it. Nicola has made sure of that.
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Good evening all, Basil has a look of a man who had won the lottery and lost the ticket. Did someone mention there is a Com Res poll coming up. Evening BJo and OGH.

    **** Opens bag of popcorn *****
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited May 2015
    SMukesh said:

    I was speaking to some Scottish Labour supporters earlier today and they were telling me the atmosphere in Scotland is feverish with pro-union supporters scared of putting their head above the parapet.

    That's what I'm hearing - on the day I reckon that the SNP will be sub-50% and quite a lot of Unionists will go into the booth and tick Tory while saying that they voted SLAB/SNP (I reckon that it will go toward the Tories for two main reasons - RD's debate performance and that the Conservatives have positioned themselves completely against the SNP)
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