politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Marf cartoon at the start of what’ll be a busy polling ni
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Marf cartoon at the start of what’ll be a busy polling night
Panelbase has 3% LAB lead
LAB 34% (NC), CON 31% (-2%), UKIP 17% (+1), LD 7% (-1), GRN 4% (NC)
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Large Bols ?
Big Balls ?
Likening them to the extreme/far right and claiming in the case of Mrs Clegg that they would deport her.
Takes me back to the Brown/Blair years where the mere mention of the word immigrant would have accusations of racism made.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3051960/Right-wing-Tories-probably-want-kick-country-altogether-says-Miriam-Clegg.html
If I get yougoved again, perhaps a kipper boost...
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Order five crates of Chutzpah for Mr Clegg.
23/04/2015 17:10
This is
a) Beautiful
b) Further proof that hospital parking should be free
(Via nedhardy.com) pic.twitter.com/loCPUgqPEH
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/want-to-avoid-a-parking-ticket-then-play-the-parking-cowboys-at-their-own-game/
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.
"Greece will go bust next week, potentially pushing the highly indebted country into default and out of the eurozone and plunging the European Union into an unprecedented crisis."
What impact is this likely to have on our GE?
Is it a possible Black Swan event?
EDIT: It was a free stay car park, struggling to understand how £150 (or indeed the original £85) is a reasonable estimate of the losses the parking company experienced
Will focus on the economy - plus the "cling to nurse" factor. But there have been so many warnings on Greece - and all Eurofudged - will the Grexit really happen in a flash this week - meh.
But if it makes any tiny difference I would expect it to help Con marginally vs Lab - on the basis that crisis = risk = go for the safety first option.
Poll movement this week courtesy of SPUD
(8 polls, 6 different pollsters)
Cons -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
How can you say not budged an inch? Why would you just make things up?
Only one poll that matters.
Since then we've had Panelbase with an increased Lab lead!
However, I note the judgement states: "the court finds that corrupt practices extensively prevailed at the election both of the Mayor and of the Councillors for the twenty wards of Tower Hamlets held on 22 May 2014." Shouldn't there be by-elections in all 20 wards? Or, if someone brought a new case about those wards, would they not instantly win?
Miliband in power.
British holidaymakers crying at the Foreign Exchange desks.
"..largely the Tories seem to have strategised regional media out of their grid. Even in areas they actually need to win, such as Bury North.
And with us they are strategising out the voters. Because I daresay most people in Bury North – or Bolton West or Hazel Grove – won’t switch on Newsnight to watch Osborne’s latest spiel about his long term economic plan.
More of them will listen to commercial radio or pick up the Manchester Evening News, or watch Granada while eating their tea. So as a strategy it seems pretty self-defeating."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/the-conservatives-are-strategising-regional-media-out-of-the-grid-and-it-wont-help-their-cause/
Flowers, blossom, near growth on plants and the weather nice enough for outdoor work, play, eating and drinking but not too hot for them.
Likewise warm days in Autumn are lovely with their fruits and berries and changing leaf colour and again the weather at happy medium for outdoor activities.
Whereas hot days in Summer are too hot for comfotable outdoor activities and make everything look dried out.
https://www.google.co.uk/#q=maximiles
Second day in a row it has moved right down the pecking order.
As you were...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa
Aaaand he's out third ball.
"starfish • 3 hours ago
maybe if the media was actually to ask a penetrating question of use to the electorate it would be better
Instead of trying to trap politicians into 'gaffes', 'u-turns' or promoting twittersphere storms...."
Second, my reasonable guess is either May 8th-13th or when the ECB loans are up for payment in July.
A Greek default before May 7th is unlikely but I give it a 25% chance.
But if it happens, there will either be a rush of votes towards the Tories and UKIP on the basis of fiscal responsibility and anti-european sentiment, or a rush of votes to Labour on the basis of blaming austerity policies for failing to prevent a default.
I remember very well the impact that the Flash Crash and the first Greek Bailout of Death had on election day, so much that I had my suspicions that the Flash Crash was City orchestrated in order to move votes.
But... at the moment I just don't even know if I'll turn out to vote this time or which candidate I'll vote for if I do. I suspect that, come the day, a sense of duty will march me to the polling station - but as for what I'll do when I get there I honestly haven't a clue.
I feel like I'm in the same position btw
A little useless as a predictor, other than it will be a close race between the 3, which we already know.
Predicted Borrowing
2010/11 £149bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £89bn
2013/14 £60bn
2014/15 £37bn
Actual Borrowing
2010/11 £135bn
2011/12 £113bn
2012/13 £120bn
2013/14 £98bn
2014/15 £87bn
An overshoot of £102bn
Now look at the comparison for each year:
2010/11 £14bn under
2011/12 £3bn under
2012/13 £31bn over
2013/14 £38bn over
2014/15 £50bn over
A worsening trend which a Labour supporter might blame on Osborne's deviation from Darling's policies ;-)
Now look at borrowing prediction for future years:
2015/16
2010 prediction £20bn
2015 prediction £75bn
Change is £55bn over
2016/17
No 2010 prediction made but a small surplus would have been the likely prediction
2015 prediction £39bn
2017/18
No 2010 prediction made but a small surplus would have been the likely prediction
2015 prediction £13bn
So the total overborrowing for the period 2010/11 to 2017/18 is likely to be around £200bn. That is assuming the economy continues to grow steadily - any severe shocks will likely see significantly higher borrowing.
Now we can have a discussion as to why this borrowing overshoot has happened / is happening and whether the policies of the government were the right ones.
But what is undeniable is that borrowing has been far more than was predicted.
Which is why the 'magic money tree' promises being currently made on all sides are so reprehensible.
I was kidding, there were 10 people in the focus group and they split 4/3/3 Lab/Con/Kip
"Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch."
My theory is that the anti SNP rhetoric only appeals to a particular type of Tory. Certainly ones that would never vote Labour. I also think there's a chance it might be motivating left of centre voters who might quite like the idea of having a talented female like Nicola in their corner.
What's a "Big Boll?"
We get the politics and politicians we deserve - everyone says they want characters and people with a hinterland, but then jumps all over any "gaffe", so we get SPAD politics.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/23/politicians-electorate-voters-election
Danny can batter the phones to Moscow for the next 14 days. Will be more likely to result in him being an MP on May 8th than anything he does in his constituency.
It's one of those things where we the great British public will agree with someone asking us if we don't like something, but won't actually vote in a way to see it is prevented/happens delete as appropriate.
Cameron may as well enjoy his last few weeks of high office. The one attack that seems to have broken through still hasn't changed things in his favour. What is left?
Quite alot of people are going to be furious with it one way or another tbh.
7% for UKIP you reckon dont you???
But wont bet on it....
How long has the campaign being going on now - is this the fourth week or the fifth or the sixth ? Not to mention the months of build up before the campaign officially began.
It wasn't biased - it's just that it was framed entirely around how much each party will cut. There was no mention of tax at all.
Anyone watching would just have thought Con will cut most so don't vote Con.
With a fortnight to go, sifting through the numbers for our latest from @ComResPolls. Interesting stuff as ever! 10pm on @MailOnline
Your cheque is in the post
Is there more variation in the Conservative level than the Labour ?
Though if there is I don't know whether that is good or bad for them.
Tory vote solidifying in the shires. Who knows, though!