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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Marf cartoon at the start of what’ll be a busy polling ni

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Cyclefree said:

    In response to Sean Fear who said this:

    "Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC."

    I have no polite word to describe Livingstone.

    It is quite simply shameful for the Labour party that a man such as him should still be a member let alone its official candidate at the last London Mayoral election.

    The Labour party were quite willing to tolerate Rahman when he was a Labour man. Their conduct when they deselected himin favour of some other ethnic minority councillor was severely criticised by the judge. If you think of voters as members of communities to be patronised and appeased and engaged with only through leaders who can harvest votes for you; if you think that some sort of identity is the only significant fact about a person (their race / skin colour / sex etc) why wouldn't you behave in the way Rahman has done?

    If having people living here, whose parents were born here not speaking English makes it easier to get their votes why would you bother with the whole integration malarkey. It makes my blood boil that there are places within walking distance of where I'm sitting right now where we have communities who have so little connection with this country that they cannot be bothered to learn its language but are entitled to vote - and that we have allowed this state of affairs to develop because it either benefited some of us or because we were too scared to challenge it and too feeble to insist that British law should apply in Britain.

    Shame on Rahman, Livingstone and all those who facilitated and turned a blind eye to this debasement of our politics and our country.

    Tower Hamlets' politics is our country's future, if present trends continue. It's a case of back to the future, as early 19th century electoral practices become the norm again.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.

    Laura KuenssbergVerified account
    @bbclaurak
    Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight

    The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.

    Agreed. If we have to accept the elected representatives of the Scots - and we do - then they equally have to accept the democratic result of the election in E&W. Labour would be crucified if they took power in such circumstances.

    Sorry but that's a totally flawed logic. It's a UK parliament. Whoever can command a majority in the House of Commons can form a government. No-one else.
    You're right. I know that. But the politics of it would be dreadful for Labour.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Just had a leaflet for the Workers' Revolutionary Party (for the next constituency). It doesn't have much to offer the average yuppie, though he's up for scrapping all immigration controls.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    I think everybody is getting way too ahead of themselves in terms of how low Labour's vote will go.

    They won't go anywhere near sub 30%. They managed 30% with a total nut case in charge, Miliband is crap but he isn't stark raving mad (in someways he is more dangerous because of that), but he has also hitched his ride to the populist themes like bash the rich, which means Labour will pick up enough voters, who are disillusioned with the current lot.

    And the Tories have pissed of enough right wing voters that they have buggered off the UKIP and not coming back.

    34/34 seems perfect plausible result.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    antifrank said:

    If the Survation poll were correct, one of my worst bets of this cycle (that Labour would do worse than in 2010 at 2/1) would come home.

    I wouldn't be too embarrassed to collect the money, but it's distinctly unlikely to happen.

    TCTC.


  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670

    SeanT said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    Todays Survation EMWNBPM

    Titter .... :smile:

    I put the poll into electoral calculus with a Scotland prediction (SNP 47, Labour 27 etc) and it gave:

    Con 295
    Lab 265
    SNP 48
    LD 18
    UKIP 2
    PC 3
    Other 1
    NI 18

    If that was the outcome it could get very messy. Which would be fun!
    It would be messy, I guess it would mean a Tory minority government, which would fall within a year or so, or less. And then I expect a new election followed by a Tory-LD Coalition as people reject the instability, and return to a post Clegg Lib Dem party.

    Maybe!

    An interesting question we haven't really discussed is how bad would the Labour performance have to be for Miliband to immediately get the boot. Getting fewer votes than Gordon and losing Scotland would surely seal his fate. I suspect he'll be gone if he is unable to form any kind of government.

    If Labour don't form a government Ed will be finished. He has no support base inside Labour, so no-one to fight for him.

    Perhaps David has put out the word to the Labour family, "I don't want anything to happen to him while my mother's alive."
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.

    He seems to believe that the system set up by Parliament to try election petitions is somehow illegitimate. Unfortunately, due to the Divisional Court's (wrong) decision in R (Woolas) v Parliamentary Election Court [2012] QB 1, we have the unedifying prospect of Mr Rahman seeking judicial review of the Commissioner's report to the High Court, and applying for an interim injunction against the returning officer in Tower Hamlets to restrain the holding of a new election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    It would be funny if Ed were to respond with something like 'Well thanks for underestimating me, you arse'.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    SeanT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.

    Laura KuenssbergVerified account
    @bbclaurak
    Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight

    The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.

    Agreed. If we have to accept the elected representatives of the Scots - and we do - then they equally have to accept the democratic result of the election in E&W. Labour would be crucified if they took power in such circumstances.

    Sorry but that's a totally flawed logic. It's a UK parliament. Whoever can command a majority in the House of Commons can form a government. No-one else.
    Politics is not alwatys about logic. If Miliband is fully 40 seats behind the Tories yet still decides to form the next government, an inherently unstable admin relying entirely on a second party dedicated to breaking up Britain and stirring up English hatred, then Miliband will be strapping on a suicide vest, for the entire Labour movement.

    I'm 95% sure he wouldn't do it. He's ambitious; he's not pathologically stupid.
    Then what is the alternative?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Sean_F said:

    Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.

    He seems to believe that the system set up by Parliament to try election petitions is somehow illegitimate. Unfortunately, due to the Divisional Court's (wrong) decision in R (Woolas) v Parliamentary Election Court [2012] QB 1, we have the prospect of Mr Rahman seeking judicial review of the Commissioner's report to the High Court, and applying for an interim injunction against the returning officer in Tower Hamlets to restrain the holding of a new election.
    I seem to recall some critical talk from some pundits and politicians around the time of the Woolas case about judges deciding things rather than voters, which struck me as a peculiar position given the law, controlled by parliament, was just being enforced.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    Back handed complement as ever from the Dark Lord.

    What happened to the old team getting back together with the likes of Two Jags and Campbell, at the forefront of campaigning for Labour? Sitting on twitter smearing the Tories doesn't count, as they do that every day anyway (unless they have a book to plug).
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Yes. If England resents Scottish MPs' having a say in their country, they could consider an independence referendum.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    Excruciatingly pompous and patronizing assessment from Mandelson.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.

    He seems to believe that the system set up by Parliament to try election petitions is somehow illegitimate. Unfortunately, due to the Divisional Court's (wrong) decision in R (Woolas) v Parliamentary Election Court [2012] QB 1, we have the prospect of Mr Rahman seeking judicial review of the Commissioner's report to the High Court, and applying for an interim injunction against the returning officer in Tower Hamlets to restrain the holding of a new election.
    I seem to recall some critical talk from some pundits and politicians around the time of the Woolas case about judges deciding things rather than voters, which struck me as a peculiar position given the law, controlled by parliament, was just being enforced.
    I think quite a few politicians believe in The Divine Right of Politicians. Or, as Roman jurists put it "The Will of the Ruler Has the Force of Law."
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TGOHF said:

    The maths don't allow Labour to be 40 behind and pass 323 with just the SNP - would need the LDs.

    Con LD - 5 more years..

    But Con-LD does ?

    So all the people who are piling on Edward Samuel Miliband as the next PM is wrong ?

    4/7 Miliband vs 6/4 Cameron - fairly typical.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    For all this talk of what would happen to Ed M were he to lose, if this latest poll is an outlier he is still on course for a win of course, after a fashion.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    If Mandelson is cooing over Miliband of all people, you have to wonder what the whole New Labour thing was about. Please don't tell me it was all a big con.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    If Mandelson is cooing over Miliband of all people, you have to wonder what the whole New Labour thing was about. Please don't tell me it was all a big con.
    We are all Labour at election time. We are not like Forsyth, Tebbit or Clarke.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    MikeK said:

    This looks to good to be true:

    Lucy Kelly ‏@lucyk6992 2h2 hours ago
    "@lillthrocksu YouGov Nowcast has UKIP candidate Peter Harris on 50.4% in Dagenham and Rainham.
    Also ukip in 2nd place in Hackney south

    I'll believe it!
    This is probably old news - Yougov has Dagenham as likely labour and overwhelmingly labour in Hackney South. (Dagenham WAS Leaning UKIP yesterday)
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    EPG said:

    Yes. If England resents Scottish MPs' having a say in their country, they could consider an independence referendum.

    Or just have devolution, as Scotland has had.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Just looked at UKIP's site.

    60% of the images are people either outside or inside pubs. My Wife showed me a UKIP beer mat that she thought was a clever piece of electioneering.

    Labour may have weaponised the NHS. UKIP has weaponised the pub.

    And it seems to be working.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    Excruciatingly pompous and patronizing assessment from Mandelson.
    But superb !
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    surbiton said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    God help the exit pollsters.

    I feel sorry for the poor sods that have to design a computer model that projects seat totals based on a few returns.
    They'll need to take polling in Glasgow and Edinburgh to measure the swing-spread in Scotland.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/

    I was trying to figure out how many *raw* voters make up the exit poll - seems to be 100,000-200,000

    Can anyone remember, in 2010, if the exit poll tables were released as well as the seat numbers? It would be extraordinarily helpful to have the tables @ 10.01pm!
    I thought it was 10000 - 20000 [ 100 x 100 = 10000 ]
    surbiton said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    God help the exit pollsters.

    I feel sorry for the poor sods that have to design a computer model that projects seat totals based on a few returns.
    They'll need to take polling in Glasgow and Edinburgh to measure the swing-spread in Scotland.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/

    I was trying to figure out how many *raw* voters make up the exit poll - seems to be 100,000-200,000

    Can anyone remember, in 2010, if the exit poll tables were released as well as the seat numbers? It would be extraordinarily helpful to have the tables @ 10.01pm!
    I thought it was 10000 - 20000 [ 100 x 100 = 10000 ]
    Thanks - looks like you're right. I really should read my own links in full before posting!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited April 2015


    Thanks! Is it on at 10:35 like normal, or is it on earlier?

    Earlier.

    8pm - Dimbleby - 3 main leaders - 30 mins each.

    10.45 (England only) - Farage with studio audience (Jo Coburn host)

    Sturgeon and Wood also get their own progs in Scotland & Wales.
  • Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.

    Laura KuenssbergVerified account
    @bbclaurak
    Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight

    The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.

    SeanT said:

    Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.

    Laura KuenssbergVerified account
    @bbclaurak
    Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight

    The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.

    I don't think he can if it is 40 seats.
    Vote with the Tories for queens speech and budget.?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    surbiton said:

    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    If Mandelson is cooing over Miliband of all people, you have to wonder what the whole New Labour thing was about. Please don't tell me it was all a big con.
    We are all Labour at election time. We are not like Forsyth, Tebbit or Clarke.
    I assume you'll be voting LibDem in May as per usual.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Something that is worth looking as is the votes of the SLAB MPs in the 2010 Labour leadership election.

    Did they vote primarily for Ed? I’d guess they did, as Ed presented himself as the most left wing candidate.

    So, Ed’s position among his MPs will be further weakened once SLAB has been removed.

    There is certainly a seat range when it is in Ed’s interest to enter a coalition, but not the Labour party’s.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In response to Sean Fear who said this:

    "Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC."

    I have no polite word to describe Livingstone.

    It is quite simply shameful for the Labour party that a man such as him should still be a member let alone its official candidate at the last London Mayoral election.

    The Labour party were quite willing to tolerate Rahman when he was a Labour man. Their conduct when they deselected himin favour of some other ethnic minority councillor was severely criticised by the judge. If you think of voters as members of communities to be patronised and appeased and engaged with only through leaders who can harvest votes for you; if you think that some sort of identity is the only significant fact about a person (their race / skin colour / sex etc) why wouldn't you behave in the way Rahman has done?

    If having people living here, whose parents were born here not speaking English makes it easier to get their votes why would you bother with the whole integration malarkey. It makes my blood boil that there are places within walking distance of where I'm sitting right now where we have communities who have so little connection with this country that they cannot be bothered to learn its language but are entitled to vote - and that we have allowed this state of affairs to develop because it either benefited some of us or because we were too scared to challenge it and too feeble to insist that British law should apply in Britain.

    Shame on Rahman, Livingstone and all those who facilitated and turned a blind eye to this debasement of our politics and our country.

    Tower Hamlets' politics is our country's future, if present trends continue. It's a case of back to the future, as early 19th century electoral practices become the norm again.
    This is a very scary thought. What would you do to stop or reverse the present trends?
  • Looks like the ICM poll was an outlier (the 2% one)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    If Mandelson is cooing over Miliband of all people, you have to wonder what the whole New Labour thing was about. Please don't tell me it was all a big con.
    Mandelson is a Labour Party man, as is Gordon Brown.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.

    He seems to believe that the system set up by Parliament to try election petitions is somehow illegitimate. Unfortunately, due to the Divisional Court's (wrong) decision in R (Woolas) v Parliamentary Election Court [2012] QB 1, we have the prospect of Mr Rahman seeking judicial review of the Commissioner's report to the High Court, and applying for an interim injunction against the returning officer in Tower Hamlets to restrain the holding of a new election.
    I seem to recall some critical talk from some pundits and politicians around the time of the Woolas case about judges deciding things rather than voters, which struck me as a peculiar position given the law, controlled by parliament, was just being enforced.
    Politicians failing to understand that they too are subject to the law and that if the voting process is subverted voters are not deciding anything.

    The judgment deals with this point right at the start.

    The Labour party will be grateful that it will likely be in charge of Tower Hamlets again but will, doubtless, do nothing at all about the underlying issues described by the judgment, namely, the sense of victimhood, grievance, isolation and misuse of accusations of racism and Islamophobia which allow the power hungry and the unscrupulous to manipulate people.

    And then we wonder why young men and women from such communities run away to become murderers.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    surbiton said:

    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    If Mandelson is cooing over Miliband of all people, you have to wonder what the whole New Labour thing was about. Please don't tell me it was all a big con.
    We are all Labour at election time. We are not like Forsyth, Tebbit or Clarke.
    Yes, bring back Ted Heath - there was a man who never let petty tribal loyalties stand in the way of a fierce old ideological feud.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    EPG said:

    Yes. If England resents Scottish MPs' having a say in their country, they could consider an independence referendum.

    For most the problem is Scottish MPs who have no stated investment in the UK having the definitive say in the running of the whole UK being a less than optimal option (not merely the idea that Scottish or even in particular SNP MPs having a say in the wider UK). Of course, some people think that would a great option, and whether one dislikes the idea or not, it does appear that is what we will be getting, so I can only hope we are all able to muddle along somehow and when the next indyref occurs all sides will be up for the fight once more.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Only two Premier League football clubs are in non-Labour constituencies apparently.

    Hardly surprising given that when they were growing they had to be close to large numbers of people very close to the ground and these days need tens of thousands of supporters. Very rare that a Wimbledon is going to stay in the Premier Division.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    MikeL said:


    Thanks! Is it on at 10:35 like normal, or is it on earlier?

    Earlier.

    8pm - Dimbleby - 3 main leaders - 30 mins each.

    10.45 (England only) - Farage with studio audience (Jo Coburn host)

    Sturgeon and Wood also get their own progs in Scotland & Wales.
    I think you have the timing wrong.

    9:30 Sturgeon in Scotland, Wood in Wales, Farage in England
    10:45 Farage in Wales
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    antifrank said:

    Just had a leaflet for the Workers' Revolutionary Party (for the next constituency). It doesn't have much to offer the average yuppie, though he's up for scrapping all immigration controls.

    Since yuppie was a term coined in the '80s, and many will no longer be young, should we now have a separate category OACS: Old And Comfortably Settled?

    Or given the state of some yuppie types I knew twenty years ago: MABOWs: Middle-Aged, Burnt-Out Wrecks?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.

    He seems to believe that the system set up by Parliament to try election petitions is somehow illegitimate. Unfortunately, due to the Divisional Court's (wrong) decision in R (Woolas) v Parliamentary Election Court [2012] QB 1, we have the prospect of Mr Rahman seeking judicial review of the Commissioner's report to the High Court, and applying for an interim injunction against the returning officer in Tower Hamlets to restrain the holding of a new election.
    I seem to recall some critical talk from some pundits and politicians around the time of the Woolas case about judges deciding things rather than voters, which struck me as a peculiar position given the law, controlled by parliament, was just being enforced.
    Politicians failing to understand that they too are subject to the law and that if the voting process is subverted voters are not deciding anything.

    The judgment deals with this point right at the start.

    The Labour party will be grateful that it will likely be in charge of Tower Hamlets again but will, doubtless, do nothing at all about the underlying issues described by the judgment, namely, the sense of victimhood, grievance, isolation and misuse of accusations of racism and Islamophobia which allow the power hungry and the unscrupulous to manipulate people.

    And then we wonder why young men and women from such communities run away to become murderers.
    I must say I was surprised the judge included a passage about being surprised Labour itself did not bring the petition. Given his afterword comments on the need to uphold the wider dangers of ignoring abuses of authority out of fear of accusations of racism and homophobia, and it feels like he really wanted to make sure people would get the message this time about everyone, parties included, not ignoring these things.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cyclefree said:

    In response to Sean Fear who said this:

    "Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC."

    I have no polite word to describe Livingstone.

    It is quite simply shameful for the Labour party that a man such as him should still be a member let alone its official candidate at the last London Mayoral election.

    The Labour party were quite willing to tolerate Rahman when he was a Labour man. Their conduct when they deselected himin favour of some other ethnic minority councillor was severely criticised by the judge. If you think of voters as members of communities to be patronised and appeased and engaged with only through leaders who can harvest votes for you; if you think that some sort of identity is the only significant fact about a person (their race / skin colour / sex etc) why wouldn't you behave in the way Rahman has done?

    If having people living here, whose parents were born here not speaking English makes it easier to get their votes why would you bother with the whole integration malarkey. It makes my blood boil that there are places within walking distance of where I'm sitting right now where we have communities who have so little connection with this country that they cannot be bothered to learn its language but are entitled to vote - and that we have allowed this state of affairs to develop because it either benefited some of us or because we were too scared to challenge it and too feeble to insist that British law should apply in Britain.

    Shame on Rahman, Livingstone and all those who facilitated and turned a blind eye to this debasement of our politics and our country.

    When I dared mention that people in the East end not speaking English and having the road signs in Bengali might not be great for community integration I was abused and told it was goi for the economy to have multilingual population and the street sign were a tourist attraction

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Something that is worth looking as is the votes of the SLAB MPs in the 2010 Labour leadership election.

    Did they vote primarily for Ed? I’d guess they did, as Ed presented himself as the most left wing candidate.

    So, Ed’s position among his MPs will be further weakened once SLAB has been removed.

    There is certainly a seat range when it is in Ed’s interest to enter a coalition, but not the Labour party’s.

    Can you tell me when did the Labour Party last stab it's elected leader in the back ? I am not talking of circumstances like the putsch to get rid of Blair which was a Blair-Brown matter.

    I mean when an election was called to depose a leader.

    The Labour Party does not do such things. It may not always be a good idea but that's how we are.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    There are all kinds of crazy rumours doing the rounds on Greece. I'm in Canada at the moment, and someone told me the US is so worried about Greece falling into the Russian camp, that they are offering to back stop another Greek rescue.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Fat_Steve said:

    Am I alone in feeling slightly sorry for the pollsters? They are trying to measure something - future voting intention - that in many cases doesn't actually exist until they summon it into being with their questions. There's something slightly quantum about the whole thing.

    Our voting system is totally inadequate for the new multi-party system; maybe the pollsters are too.

    UKIP's potential under-representation after 7th May is going to be a huge - and hopefully gamechanging - scandal.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    If Mandelson is cooing over Miliband of all people, you have to wonder what the whole New Labour thing was about. Please don't tell me it was all a big con.
    We are all Labour at election time. We are not like Forsyth, Tebbit or Clarke.
    I assume you'll be voting LibDem in May as per usual.
    I have already voted LABOUR - too late !
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Isabel Hardman on her first ever trip to Edinburgh has spent the day following Jim Murphy around Edinburgh. Good to see that she managed to find her way out of the Westminster Bubble, I wonder how many other Westminster elite journalists who write page after page of drivel about Scotland have similarly never been to the dangerous and scary streets of Edinburgh. Getting to Edinburgh from London is pretty easy with regular trains, planes and even a road !!

    Anyway here is her blog post about Murphy's Edinburgh "rally" of high percentage of Edinburgh's SLAB activists:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2015/04/jim-murphy-rallies-labour-activists-in-edinburgh/
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Nice generational change in the cricket. Cook and Trott start the innings with a plodding (but very valuable) partnership. Now Root and Ballance are rattling along in a very different style, as befits their youth. If Ballance posts a big score (140ish) he'll match Len Hutton in taking 16 innings to get a 1000 test runs. Exalted company indeed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    Fat_Steve said:

    Am I alone in feeling slightly sorry for the pollsters? They are trying to measure something - future voting intention - that in many cases doesn't actually exist until they summon it into being with their questions. There's something slightly quantum about the whole thing.

    Our voting system is totally inadequate for the new multi-party system; maybe the pollsters are too.

    UKIP's potential under-representation after 7th May is going to be a huge - and hopefully gamechanging - scandal.
    Didn't the same happen with the Alliance 30 years ago?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.

    He seems to believe that the system set up by Parliament to try election petitions is somehow illegitimate. Unfortunately, due to the Divisional Court's (wrong) decision in R (Woolas) v Parliamentary Election Court [2012] QB 1, we have the prospect of Mr Rahman seeking judicial review of the Commissioner's report to the High Court, and applying for an interim injunction against the returning officer in Tower Hamlets to restrain the holding of a new election.
    I seem to recall some critical talk from some pundits and politicians around the time of the Woolas case about judges deciding things rather than voters, which struck me as a peculiar position given the law, controlled by parliament, was just being enforced.
    Politicians failing to understand that they too are subject to the law and that if the voting process is subverted voters are not deciding anything.

    The judgment deals with this point right at the start.

    The Labour party will be grateful that it will likely be in charge of Tower Hamlets again but will, doubtless, do nothing at all about the underlying issues described by the judgment, namely, the sense of victimhood, grievance, isolation and misuse of accusations of racism and Islamophobia which allow the power hungry and the unscrupulous to manipulate people.

    And then we wonder why young men and women from such communities run away to become murderers.
    I must say I was surprised the judge included a passage about being surprised Labour itself did not bring the petition. Given his afterword comments on the need to uphold the wider dangers of ignoring abuses of authority out of fear of accusations of racism and homophobia, and it feels like he really wanted to make sure people would get the message this time about everyone, parties included, not ignoring these things.
    Agreed. He made some suggestions which ought to be taken up.

    Frankly - and I've said this before on here - the word "Islamophobia" is a stupid word which has been and is being used to stop people saying what needs to be said. We should stop using it. No religion is beyond criticism and no person following any religion is beyond criticism. Nor for that matter is anyone who is a member of an ethnic minority. No-one should use some characteristic they cannot change - or a belief which they can - as some sort of free pass to make themselves immune from criticism. That is the sorry pass that identity politics - identity bollocks - has brought us to and it is time, long past the time, frankly, that we say "enough is enough".

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tower Hamlets is a template that the rest of the UK should grasp.

    Concerns were raised by the local electorate 30-35 years ago about the levels of migration and the problems caused by allocating taxpayer funded resources to those who had never paid taxes to the disadvantage of the local poor/working class.

    Those people were roundly condemned as racist, and Labour were at the forefront.

    The people were right, the politicos - well off and really unaffected - were wrong.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    RobD said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    Am I alone in feeling slightly sorry for the pollsters? They are trying to measure something - future voting intention - that in many cases doesn't actually exist until they summon it into being with their questions. There's something slightly quantum about the whole thing.

    Our voting system is totally inadequate for the new multi-party system; maybe the pollsters are too.

    UKIP's potential under-representation after 7th May is going to be a huge - and hopefully gamechanging - scandal.
    Didn't the same happen with the Alliance 30 years ago?
    Yes. And nothing happened. I blame Spitting Image.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwGvgC-r4IE
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pong said:

    surbiton said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    God help the exit pollsters.

    I feel sorry for the poor sods that have to design a computer model that projects seat totals based on a few returns.
    They'll need to take polling in Glasgow and Edinburgh to measure the swing-spread in Scotland.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/

    I was trying to figure out how many *raw* voters make up the exit poll - seems to be 100,000-200,000

    Can anyone remember, in 2010, if the exit poll tables were released as well as the seat numbers? It would be extraordinarily helpful to have the tables @ 10.01pm!
    I thought it was 10000 - 20000 [ 100 x 100 = 10000 ]
    surbiton said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    God help the exit pollsters.

    I feel sorry for the poor sods that have to design a computer model that projects seat totals based on a few returns.
    They'll need to take polling in Glasgow and Edinburgh to measure the swing-spread in Scotland.
    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/

    I was trying to figure out how many *raw* voters make up the exit poll - seems to be 100,000-200,000

    Can anyone remember, in 2010, if the exit poll tables were released as well as the seat numbers? It would be extraordinarily helpful to have the tables @ 10.01pm!
    I thought it was 10000 - 20000 [ 100 x 100 = 10000 ]
    Thanks - looks like you're right. I really should read my own links in full before posting!
    I read the whole thing as I am quite interested in the subject. In the US it is far easier. Basically , two party system.

    All they do in the US is select precincts which demographically represent the State and the previous election results in that precinct more or less mirrored the State result.

    Unless very close, they just announce, CBS projects..............

    Ours is more complicated. However, they are used to 4 party systems in Scotland.

    Though, I am not too certain how many Scottish polling stations were used before since there were very few marginal Scottish constituencies.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    surbiton said:

    TGOHF said:

    The maths don't allow Labour to be 40 behind and pass 323 with just the SNP - would need the LDs.

    Con LD - 5 more years..

    But Con-LD does ?

    So all the people who are piling on Edward Samuel Miliband as the next PM is wrong ?

    4/7 Miliband vs 6/4 Cameron - fairly typical.
    I'm on Cameron - Ed can't motivate voters.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015

    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    If Mandelson is cooing over Miliband of all people, you have to wonder what the whole New Labour thing was about. Please don't tell me it was all a big con.
    No, these people simply crave power and all the goodies that come with it, pure and simple. They'll say anything and claim that they believe in whatever they have to, if that gets it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    Tower Hamlets is a template that the rest of the UK should grasp.

    Concerns were raised by the local electorate 30-35 years ago about the levels of migration and the problems caused by allocating taxpayer funded resources to those who had never paid taxes to the disadvantage of the local poor/working class.

    Those people were roundly condemned as racist, and Labour were at the forefront.

    The people were right, the politicos - well off and really unaffected - were wrong.

    Yeah, just get it off your chest. It's your time today.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    Cyclefree said:

    Frankly - and I've said this before on here - the word "Islamophobia" is a stupid word which has been and is being used to stop people saying what needs to be said. We should stop using it. No religion is beyond criticism and no person following any religion is beyond criticism. Nor for that matter is anyone who is a member of an ethnic minority. No-one should use some characteristic they cannot change - or a belief which they can - as some sort of free pass to make themselves immune from criticism. That is the sorry pass that identity politics - identity bollocks - has brought us to and it is time, long past the time, frankly, that we say "enough is enough".

    "I've said this before on here - the word "Islamophobia" is a stupid word "

    You may have said it before: it doesn't make you right, though. But I fear this is one thing we will have to disagree on.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Dair said:

    MikeL said:


    Thanks! Is it on at 10:35 like normal, or is it on earlier?

    Earlier.

    8pm - Dimbleby - 3 main leaders - 30 mins each.

    10.45 (England only) - Farage with studio audience (Jo Coburn host)

    Sturgeon and Wood also get their own progs in Scotland & Wales.
    I think you have the timing wrong.

    9:30 Sturgeon in Scotland, Wood in Wales, Farage in England
    10:45 Farage in Wales
    Is this today?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Most favoured outcome of the election - according to Survation - A Conservative-UKIP coalition. false memories possible as 73% recollect voting and only 65% actually did. This could mean (also) that people who did not vote in the last election and who might vote in this are being missed. That would probably not favour the Tories or Labour.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.

    He seems to believe that the system set up by Parliament to try election petitions is somehow illegitimate. Unfortunately, due to the Divisional Court's (wrong) decision in R (Woolas) v Parliamentary Election Court [2012] QB 1, we have the prospect of Mr Rahman seeking judicial review of the Commissioner's report to the High Court, and applying for an interim injunction against the returning officer in Tower Hamlets to restrain the holding of a new election.
    I seem to recall some critical talk from some pundits and politicians around the time of the Woolas case about judges deciding things rather than voters, which struck me as a peculiar position given the law, controlled by parliament, was just being enforced.
    Politicians failing to understand that they too are subject to the law and that if the voting process is subverted voters are not deciding anything.

    The judgment deals with this point right at the start.

    The Labour party will be grateful that it will likely be in charge of Tower Hamlets again but will, doubtless, do nothing at all about the underlying issues described by the judgment, namely, the sense of victimhood, grievance, isolation and misuse of accusations of racism and Islamophobia which allow the power hungry and the unscrupulous to manipulate people.

    And then we wonder why young men and women from such communities run away to become murderers.
    I must say I was surprised the judge included a passage about being surprised Labour itself did not bring the petition. Given his afterword comments on the need to uphold the wider dangers of ignoring abuses of authority out of fear of accusations of racism and homophobia, and it feels like he really wanted to make sure people would get the message this time about everyone, parties included, not ignoring these things.
    Agreed. He made some suggestions which ought to be taken up.

    Frankly - and I've said this before on here - the word "Islamophobia" is a stupid word which has been and is being used to stop people saying what needs to be said. We should stop using it. No religion is beyond criticism and no person following any religion is beyond criticism. Nor for that matter is anyone who is a member of an ethnic minority. No-one should use some characteristic they cannot change - or a belief which they can - as some sort of free pass to make themselves immune from criticism. That is the sorry pass that identity politics - identity bollocks - has brought us to and it is time, long past the time, frankly, that we say "enough is enough".

    http://youtu.be/b-PP61qTmic
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    A lot of Tweeting ahead of the ComRes/Mail poll
    I assume that's good for the Tories

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/591318432655798273
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    surbiton said:

    Yeah, just get it off your chest. It's your time today.

    Surbiton.

    Says it all.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    Todays Survation EMWNBPM

    Titter .... :smile:

    I put the poll into electoral calculus with a Scotland prediction (SNP 47, Labour 27 etc) and it gave:

    Con 295
    Lab 265
    SNP 48
    LD 18
    UKIP 2
    PC 3
    Other 1
    NI 18

    If that was the outcome it could get very messy. Which would be fun!
    It would be messy, I guess it would mean a Tory minority government, which would fall within a year or so, or less. And then I expect a new election followed by a Tory-LD Coalition as people reject the instability, and return to a post Clegg Lib Dem party.

    Maybe!

    An interesting question we haven't really discussed is how bad would the Labour performance have to be for Miliband to immediately get the boot. Getting fewer votes than Gordon and losing Scotland would surely seal his fate. I suspect he'll be gone if he is unable to form any kind of government.

    If Labour don't form a government Ed will be finished. He has no support base inside Labour, so no-one to fight for him.

    Agreed.
    I can see several leader resignations overnight on May7/8

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ooh that Nat attack just ain't working...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In response to Sean Fear who said this:

    "Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC."

    I have no polite word to describe Livingstone.

    It is quite simply shameful for the Labour party that a man such as him should still be a member let alone its official candidate at the last London Mayoral election.

    The Labour party were quite willing to tolerate Rahman when he was a Labour man. Their conduct when they deselected himin favour of some other ethnic minority councillor was severely criticised by the judge. If you think of voters as members of communities to be patronised and appeased and engaged with only through leaders who can harvest votes for you; if you think that some sort of identity is the only significant fact about a person (their race / skin colour / sex etc) why wouldn't you behave in the way Rahman has done?

    If having people living here, whose parents were born here not speaking English makes it easier to get their votes why would you bother with the whole integration malarkey. It makes my blood boil that there are places within walking distance of where I'm sitting right now where we have communities who have so little connection with this country that they cannot be bothered to learn its language but are entitled to vote - and that we have allowed this state of affairs to develop because it either benefited some of us or because we were too scared to challenge it and too feeble to insist that British law should apply in Britain.

    Shame on Rahman, Livingstone and all those who facilitated and turned a blind eye to this debasement of our politics and our country.

    When I dared mention that people in the East end not speaking English and having the road signs in Bengali might not be great for community integration I was abused and told it was goi for the economy to have multilingual population and the street sign were a tourist attraction

    You were not abused by me. You were right.

    We have allowed the creation of little fiefdoms, treated - ironically enough - as colonies, where the rulers are allowed to mediate for the people with those handing out the money and other sweeties and, as in all such arrangements, corruption and abuse of power and crime abound and all sorts of nasty things are allowed to fester under the surface.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.

    He seems to believe that the system set up by Parliament to try election petitions is somehow illegitimate. Unfortunately, due to the Divisional Court's (wrong) decision in R (Woolas) v Parliamentary Election Court [2012] QB 1, we have the prospect of Mr Rahman seeking judicial review of the Commissioner's report to the High Court, and applying for an interim injunction against the returning officer in Tower Hamlets to restrain the holding of a new election.
    I seem to recall some critical talk from some pundits and politicians around the time of the Woolas case about judges deciding things rather than voters, which struck me as a peculiar position given the law, controlled by parliament, was just being enforced.
    Politicians failing to understand that they too are subject to the law and that if the voting process is subverted voters are not deciding anything.

    The judgment deals with this point right at the start.

    The Labour party will be grateful that it will likely be in charge of Tower Hamlets again but will, doubtless, do nothing at all about the underlying issues described by the judgment, namely, the sense of victimhood, grievance, isolation and misuse of accusations of racism and Islamophobia which allow the power hungry and the unscrupulous to manipulate people.

    And then we wonder why young men and women from such communities run away to become murderers.
    I must say I was surprised the judge included a passage about being surprised Labour itself did not bring the petition. Given his afterword comments on the need to uphold the wider dangers of ignoring abuses of authority out of fear of accusations of racism and homophobia, and it feels like he really wanted to make sure people would get the message this time about everyone, parties included, not ignoring these things.
    Woah, some bad autocorrect errors in there.

    I must say I was surprised the judge included a passage about being surprised Labour itself did not bring the petition. Given his afterword comments on the need to uphold the law and islamophobia, and it feels like he really wanted to make sure people would get the message this time about everyone, parties included, not ignoring these things.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    Tower Hamlets is a template that the rest of the UK should grasp.

    Concerns were raised by the local electorate 30-35 years ago about the levels of migration and the problems caused by allocating taxpayer funded resources to those who had never paid taxes to the disadvantage of the local poor/working class.

    Those people were roundly condemned as racist, and Labour were at the forefront.

    The people were right, the politicos - well off and really unaffected - were wrong.

    Yeah, just get it off your chest. It's your time today.
    How is it his time?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    A lot of Tweeting ahead of the ComRes/Mail poll

    Another Con +3/4 would start to look like pattern.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    There are all kinds of crazy rumours doing the rounds on Greece. I'm in Canada at the moment, and someone told me the US is so worried about Greece falling into the Russian camp, that they are offering to back stop another Greek rescue.

    Why is Greece so valuable?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    Todays Survation EMWNBPM

    Titter .... :smile:

    I put the poll into electoral calculus with a Scotland prediction (SNP 47, Labour 27 etc) and it gave:

    Con 295
    Lab 265
    SNP 48
    LD 18
    UKIP 2
    PC 3
    Other 1
    NI 18

    If that was the outcome it could get very messy. Which would be fun!
    It would be messy, I guess it would mean a Tory minority government, which would fall within a year or so, or less. And then I expect a new election followed by a Tory-LD Coalition as people reject the instability, and return to a post Clegg Lib Dem party.

    Maybe!

    An interesting question we haven't really discussed is how bad would the Labour performance have to be for Miliband to immediately get the boot. Getting fewer votes than Gordon and losing Scotland would surely seal his fate. I suspect he'll be gone if he is unable to form any kind of government.

    If Labour don't form a government Ed will be finished. He has no support base inside Labour, so no-one to fight for him.

    Agreed.
    I can see several leader resignations overnight on May7/8

    Thinking about this, Clegg, if he's returned, will surely be replaced as Leader fairly quickly, but maybe not right away on the night?

    Farage has said he will resign if he loses, but that's not certain, so remains a possible only.

    Cameron or Miliband both possibles depending on how badly they do - if both have viable options to form a government, they should presumably last a little longer.

    Tough to call how many exactly then I guess.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    And for some fun - Nick Clegg is regarded as the sexiest leader - then Cameron - then Miliband - then Farage (of the main English parties only)
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    rcs1000 said:

    There are all kinds of crazy rumours doing the rounds on Greece. I'm in Canada at the moment, and someone told me the US is so worried about Greece falling into the Russian camp, that they are offering to back stop another Greek rescue.

    Lessons won't be learned if that happens. Greece cannot be bailed out forever.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    MikeL said:


    Thanks! Is it on at 10:35 like normal, or is it on earlier?

    Earlier.

    8pm - Dimbleby - 3 main leaders - 30 mins each.

    10.45 (England only) - Farage with studio audience (Jo Coburn host)

    Sturgeon and Wood also get their own progs in Scotland & Wales.
    I think you have the timing wrong.

    9:30 Sturgeon in Scotland, Wood in Wales, Farage in England
    10:45 Farage in Wales
    Is this today?
    No, next week.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are all kinds of crazy rumours doing the rounds on Greece. I'm in Canada at the moment, and someone told me the US is so worried about Greece falling into the Russian camp, that they are offering to back stop another Greek rescue.

    Why is Greece so valuable?
    Southern flank of NATO, warm water port in the Med.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    rcs1000 said:

    There are all kinds of crazy rumours doing the rounds on Greece. I'm in Canada at the moment, and someone told me the US is so worried about Greece falling into the Russian camp, that they are offering to back stop another Greek rescue.

    Russia wins either way.

    Putin or Obama, just light years apart in intelligence, temperament and experience.

    Like a grandmaster playing a pigeon.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    A lot of Tweeting ahead of the ComRes/Mail poll
    I assume that's good for the Tories

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/591318432655798273

    Given the crap and semi-hysterical proclamations that trail every poll these days, I don't think you can assume anything other than "it is a new poll".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    chestnut said:

    A lot of Tweeting ahead of the ComRes/Mail poll

    Another Con +3/4 would start to look like pattern.
    Would all the Tory papers be able to resist the temptation to do a 'day the polls turned' type headline the Guardian I wonder, in that scenario.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are all kinds of crazy rumours doing the rounds on Greece. I'm in Canada at the moment, and someone told me the US is so worried about Greece falling into the Russian camp, that they are offering to back stop another Greek rescue.

    Why is Greece so valuable?
    Southern flank of NATO, warm water port in the Med.
    Hence their attitude to Cyprus.
  • AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Is UKIP benefitting from the migrant crisis in the Med?

    Probably.
    It's easy to expect what happens on tuesday affects the Wednesday poll. Even gamechangers take a week or so to filter through - we have seen this before. as I remember initial reaction to the omnishambles wasn't terrible.

    If ukip are picking up in the polls this week, then maybe its because of a creditable performance from farage is the debate last week.

    Think this survation may be an outlier. If the SNP stuff is hurting labour
    , I think it will be a few days before it fully manifests itself in the polls.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    OT I saw a 6 minute extended trailer for that new Mad Max movie that I'd forgotten was coming out. It looks bloody awful. I don't think I've seen such an epically bad trailer for a movie in a long time, so if the movie is good or even just ok, for once the trailer people will have done the reverse, as normally they are genius' at turning a bad movie into a good one through the power of editing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    A lot of Tweeting ahead of the ComRes/Mail poll

    Another Con +3/4 would start to look like pattern.
    Would all the Tory papers be able to resist the temptation to do a 'day the polls turned' type headline the Guardian I wonder, in that scenario.
    "The day the polls actually turned"
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    rcs1000 said:

    There are all kinds of crazy rumours doing the rounds on Greece. I'm in Canada at the moment, and someone told me the US is so worried about Greece falling into the Russian camp, that they are offering to back stop another Greek rescue.

    lol. You've got to hand it to Syriza, they're playing their cards well.

    Like, back in the '40's when the americans lent us a pile of dosh to create a socialised healthcare system.

    Worked out pretty well in the end.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    surbiton said:

    TGOHF said:

    @michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015

    If Mandelson is cooing over Miliband of all people, you have to wonder what the whole New Labour thing was about. Please don't tell me it was all a big con.
    We are all Labour at election time. We are not like Forsyth, Tebbit or Clarke.
    Willing to lie through your teeth you mean.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2015
    Lessons won't be learned if that happens. Greece cannot be bailed out forever.

    If the Greeks are stupid enough to elect a government that will sell their country down the river to a tyrant for a few pieces of gold, that is their look out.

    That country has been indulged for far too long. It;s time it grew up.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.

    He seems to believe that the system set up by Parliament to try election petitions is somehow illegitimate. Unfortunately, due to the Divisional Court's (wrong) decision in R (Woolas) v Parliamentary Election Court [2012] QB 1, we have the prospect of Mr Rahman seeking judicial review of the Commissioner's report to the High Court, and applying for an interim injunction against the returning officer in Tower Hamlets to restrain the holding of a new election.
    I seem to recall some critical talk from some pundits and politicians around the time of the Woolas case about judges deciding things rather than voters, which struck me as a peculiar position given the law, controlled by parliament, was just being enforced.
    Politicians failing to understand that they too are subject to the law and that if the voting process is subverted voters are not deciding anything.

    The judgment deals with this point right at the start.

    The Labour party will be grateful that it will likely be in charge of Tower Hamlets again but will, doubtless, do nothing at all about the underlying issues described by the judgment, namely, the sense of victimhood, grievance, isolation and misuse of accusations of racism and Islamophobia which allow

    And then we wonder why young men and women from such communities run away to become murderers.
    I must say I was surprised the judge included a passage about being surprised Labour itself did not bring the petition. Given his afterword comments on the need to uphold the wider dangers of ignoring abuses of authority out of fear of accusations of racism and homophobia, and it feels like he really wanted to make sure people would get the message this time about everyone, parties included, not ignoring these things.
    Agreed. He made some suggestions which ought to be taken up.

    Frankly - and I've said this before on here - the word "Islamophobia" is a stupid word which has been and is being used to stop people saying what needs to be said. We should stop using it. No religion is beyond criticism and no person following any religion is beyond criticism. Nor for that matter is anyone who is a member of an ethnic minority. No-one should use some characteristic they cannot change - or a belief which they can - as some sort of free pass to make themselves immune from criticism. That is the sorry pass that identity politics - identity bollocks - has brought us to and it is time, long past the time, frankly, that we say "enough is enough".

    "Islamophobia" is a term that is ideal for bullies who see themselves as victims.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are all kinds of crazy rumours doing the rounds on Greece. I'm in Canada at the moment, and someone told me the US is so worried about Greece falling into the Russian camp, that they are offering to back stop another Greek rescue.

    Why is Greece so valuable?
    No one wants to give up a playing piece. We went to all that trouble of agreeing with Stalin for the Russians to stay out of there after all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    taffys said:

    Lessons won't be learned if that happens. Greece cannot be bailed out forever.
    .

    It was blatantly obvious with the last bailout that it was infact going to be a gift, not a loan, as they could not pay it back, but the leaderships all pretended otherwise, so I rule nothing out, even though it feels like it should be true this time.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    surbiton said:

    Moses_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've voted in every GE since I've been old enough and, since then, I've always turned out for the Euros and the locals too (except when on holiday once in 2008).

    But... at the moment I just don't even know if I'll turn out to vote this time or which candidate I'll vote for if I do. I suspect that, come the day, a sense of duty will march me to the polling station - but as for what I'll do when I get there I honestly haven't a clue.

    Will you be tossing a coin or rolling a dice ?

    I feel like I'm in the same position btw ;)
    Me too. It's not going to be Labour other than that not really sure. So that's 3 of us on this site already so I wonder how many more are going to do an impulse vote on the day and just hope?
    You are going to vote Tory. Why pretend otherwise ?
    Wrong

    Classic response from leftie if you ain't one of us you are a baby eater......
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    taffys said:

    Lessons won't be learned if that happens. Greece cannot be bailed out forever.

    If the Greeks are stupid enough to elect a government that will sell their country down the river to a tyrant for a few pieces of gold, that is their look out.

    That country has been indulged for far too long. It;s time it grew up.

    Trying to buy Greece into your camp will just be an endless money pit. Let the Russians do that if they want: it'll bankrupt them too.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015
    Survation tweeting new polling out at 10pm.

    Rush job after the Mirror didn't like the first poll? ;)
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Just catching up - but Survation gave another poll out at 10pm?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Cyclefree said:

    Frankly - and I've said this before on here - the word "Islamophobia" is a stupid word which has been and is being used to stop people saying what needs to be said. We should stop using it. No religion is beyond criticism and no person following any religion is beyond criticism. Nor for that matter is anyone who is a member of an ethnic minority. No-one should use some characteristic they cannot change - or a belief which they can - as some sort of free pass to make themselves immune from criticism. That is the sorry pass that identity politics - identity bollocks - has brought us to and it is time, long past the time, frankly, that we say "enough is enough".

    "I've said this before on here - the word "Islamophobia" is a stupid word "

    You may have said it before: it doesn't make you right, though. But I fear this is one thing we will have to disagree on.
    Indeed. But from what I remember of our last encounter on this I think in substance we don't really disagree that much. I do not abide by those who attack individual Muslims for being Muslims (anymore than I can abide those who attack a Scotsman for being Scottish).

    But I make a distinction - important in my mind - between an individual and an idea. And I think there are those who unscrupulously - not you, I hasten to add - who have deliberately confused attacking an individual and attacking a religion by creating a word to make it seem as if criticism of the latter is the same as the former. It has been a largely successful attempt to shut people up. And I refuse to be told what I can and cannot say. I refuse - as Christopher Hitchens once so memorably put it - to be spoken to like that by the perennially offended cry-baby.

    I'm afraid that there is too much evidence that the use of this word has been used maliciously and dishonourably to prevent people from saying and doing what needed and still needs saying and doing.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Dair said:

    MikeL said:


    Thanks! Is it on at 10:35 like normal, or is it on earlier?

    Earlier.

    8pm - Dimbleby - 3 main leaders - 30 mins each.

    10.45 (England only) - Farage with studio audience (Jo Coburn host)

    Sturgeon and Wood also get their own progs in Scotland & Wales.
    I think you have the timing wrong.

    9:30 Sturgeon in Scotland, Wood in Wales, Farage in England
    10:45 Farage in Wales
    No, I was correct.

    Sturgeon is 9.30 (non-political prog in England / Wales).

    Wood and Farage are 10.45.

    Farage shown in Wales at 11.45.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    Survation tweeting new polling out at 10pm.

    Rush job after the Mirror didn't like the first poll? ;)

    May2015 will be happy......

    *innocent face*
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Survation. ‏@Survation 5m5 minutes ago
    POLL ALERT: We'll have new polling out at 10pm. Stay tuned.

    Strange
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Floater said:
    I see he uses the 'government that nobody voted for' line in his message. I look forward to seeing if the same people, left and right, who have used it the past 5 years use it again in the event of a Rainbow Coalition (or theoretically a Con-UKIP-DUP coalition, but the odds of that I regard as negligible), or it is is ok if it is a anti-tory majority.

    I know Labour are stronger with the unions, but there must be non-labour supporting people in them in great numbers, it must be a bit weird getting a message about Labour being 'our party' when you personally would not vote for them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    DavidL said:

    England has got something truly special in Joe Root. I hope they don't overplay him.

    Or make him captain.
    He will be captain before the end of the year.
    Agreed.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobD said:

    Survation tweeting new polling out at 10pm.

    Rush job after the Mirror didn't like the first poll? ;)

    May2015 will be happy......

    *innocent face*
    May2015 not updating their poll of polls just in case...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    Survation. ‏@Survation 5m5 minutes ago
    POLL ALERT: We'll have new polling out at 10pm. Stay tuned.

    Strange

    I think the numbers earlier were supposed to be embargoed until now?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Survation tweeting new polling out at 10pm.

    Rush job after the Mirror didn't like the first poll? ;)

    The day the polls turned... again...
  • JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are all kinds of crazy rumours doing the rounds on Greece. I'm in Canada at the moment, and someone told me the US is so worried about Greece falling into the Russian camp, that they are offering to back stop another Greek rescue.

    Why is Greece so valuable?
    I was taught it stopped Turkey from sticking to the tin.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Survation. ‏@Survation 5m5 minutes ago
    POLL ALERT: We'll have new polling out at 10pm. Stay tuned.

    Strange

    Indeed it is strange. Maybe supplementaries?
This discussion has been closed.