On why the polls haven't budged (yet) despite Cameron and co throwing everything at their chaos and the SNP line - could it be that different forces are cancelling each other out? Miliband has by all accounts, except those who are currently acting as the armed wing of CCHQ, had an excellent campaign so far, and some people may be taking a second look at him. However others will be, as people report from the doorstep, frightened by the SNP - hence perhaps why the polls are not shifting. The SNP attacks may be working, but only as a defensive measure against a Labour campaign that has been far stronger than the Tories' initial safety first approach allowed for. Just a thought, Ed not actually being crap adds 1-2 points to Lab, fear of the SNP takes it off again and it's as you were.
"Greece will go bust next week, potentially pushing the highly indebted country into default and out of the eurozone and plunging the European Union into an unprecedented crisis."
What impact is this likely to have on our GE? Is it a possible Black Swan event?
I swing back and forth on this, but the latest that I'm hearing is that - with the money from the local authorities in hand - Greece theoretically has money to last it until July.
As an aside, given we've all been talking about if for at least six months, Grexit is the exact opposite of a "Black Swan" event. Since the Eurozone crisis started in 2010, Martin Wolf, Mathew Lynn and others have all stated that Grexit is pretty much inevitable.
Really, the only thing that has kept Greece in the Euro to date is that fact that the US has been pressuring Europe hard to make concessions to the Syriza led government - because they fear Greece getting into bed with Russia.
"Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch."
My theory is that the anti SNP rhetoric only appeals to a particular type of Tory. Certainly ones that would never vote Labour. I also think there's a chance it might be motivating left of centre voters who might quite like the idea of having a talented female like Nicola in their corner.
I think you might be right there Roger.
Wishful thinking - the SNP holding England to ransom will upset lots of voters across all parties
Perhaps it will and perhaps it won't but I suspect you wish it to be so.
I'm sure there will be some resentment but how many votes it shifts and equally important where those votes are is not known.
I also suspect that there's quite a bit of respect for Sturgeon of the "Sturgeon fights for her people, I wish someone would do the same for us" type.
Dice might work... there are 6 candidates standing in the seat. But 2 of the candidates I can easily rule out. I'd never consider UKIP or TUSC. So that leaves me with Con, Lab, LD and Lincolnshire Inds...
Maybe tossing a coin... with two semi finals and the winners of those going through to the final toss.
Dice might work... there are 6 candidates standing in the seat. But 2 of the candidates I can easily rule out. I'd never consider UKIP or TUSC. So that leaves me with Con, Lab, LD and Lincolnshire Inds...
Maybe tossing a coin... with two semi finals and the winners of those going through to the final toss.
Do you want to vote swap on the coin toss winner with me ?
"Greece will go bust next week, potentially pushing the highly indebted country into default and out of the eurozone and plunging the European Union into an unprecedented crisis."
What impact is this likely to have on our GE? Is it a possible Black Swan event?
I swing back and forth on this, but the latest that I'm hearing is that - with the money from the local authorities in hand - Greece theoretically has money to last it until July.
As an aside, given we've all been talking about if for at least six months, Grexit is the exact opposite of a "Black Swan" event. Since the Eurozone crisis started in 2010, Martin Wolf, Mathew Lynn and others have all stated that Grexit is pretty much inevitable.
Really, the only thing that has kept Greece in the Euro to date is that fact that the US has been pressuring Europe hard to make concessions to the Syriza led government - because they fear Greece getting into bed with Russia.
I thought a lot of the local authorities had refused to hand over the money?
Many, many thanks - my account has just risen by nearly four figures!
Wow, only had £20 on it myself.
It was a certainty at the end when it became obvious Cameron couldn't get the Lords vote through - but Paddy Power was still, astonishingly, offering 11/10 (cut from 6/4 I think previously).
I reckon it was the single best value bet I have seen in over 10 years following this site - the true odds should have been about 1/10.
I opened a Paddy Power account specially but couldn't get as much as I wanted on.
Bigger than usual change, which is welcome in this static election, but overall picture still a bit of a yawn, given plenty of Labour leads mean overall we're probably still looking at a tie. Not a Tory increase at the expense of Lab, which is interesting.
"Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch."
My theory is that the anti SNP rhetoric only appeals to a particular type of Tory. Certainly ones that would never vote Labour. I also think there's a chance it might be motivating left of centre voters who might quite like the idea of having a talented female like Nicola in their corner.
I think you might be right there Roger.
Wishful thinking - the SNP holding England to ransom will upset lots of voters across all parties
Perhaps it will and perhaps it won't but I suspect you wish it to be so.
I'm sure there will be some resentment but how many votes it shifts and equally important where those votes are is not known.
I also suspect that there's quite a bit of respect for Sturgeon of the "Sturgeon fights for her people, I wish someone would do the same for us" type.
Having lived in Edinburgh in the 60's and being married to a Scot I have much admiration for Nicola Sturgeon but I do not agree with most of her policies. My wishes do not come into this discussion - there is a feeling in Ruk that Scotland already gets a good deal and has autonomy over health and education and it is wholly unreasonable for them to vote on these matters in the HOC. If the Survation poll is right it could be the first confirmation of this and if evidenced in further polls it would put the cat amongst the pigeons
Does anybody really have a clue what is going?.....
Even the thought that Tories have to get UKIP vote down (hence the last big lead when UKIP were down on 7%), then in this one UKIP are up on 18%...18%....Lib Dems up into double digits and the Tories still have 4% lead.
But in Panelbase, Tories 3 behind with UKIP up on 17.
Does anybody really have a clue what is going?.....
Even the thought that Tories have to get UKIP vote down (hence the last big lead when UKIP were down on 7%), then in this one UKIP are up on 18%...18%....Lib Dems up into double digits and the Tories still have 4% lead.
But in Panelbase, Tories 3 behind with UKIP up on 17.
It depends on the political origin of the present UKIP voters - ex Lab, ex Con or ex DNV.
Looks like a good week for UKIP. Although there are a couple more polls to go. Call Me Dave needs to work a bit harder if he wants the Kippers to come back to him.
Bigger than usual change, which is welcome in this static election, but overall picture still a bit of a yawn, given plenty of Labour leads mean overall we're probably still looking at a tie. Not a Tory increase at the expense of Lab, which is interesting.
Non-YouGov polls in part-ELBOW = 0.1% Tory lead!!!
(YouGov polls only 0.6% Labour lead!!!)
(Part-ELBOW inc. all 10 polls this week = 0.3% Lab lead)
2. The Tory warnings of SNP/Labour are working. But not for the Tories. Tory vote isn't going up but UKIP and LIberal vote is.
2. would be an interesting outcome. Nothing else seems able to lift the LD vote from the doldrums, it would be hilarious if it went up as a result of someone elses' attack which didn't even mention the LDs.
Is UKIP benefitting from the migrant crisis in the Med?
Good point. That would probably have more impact on the "white van and stocky dog" red kippers than the "moustachioed would never have happened in my day" blue kippers. Would tie in with the Labour fall, too.
Right wing rags get Lab leads in their polls and lefty papers get Tory leaders.
Thankfully that is the case. Can you manage the constant hype if the reverse was true.
You could argue that they're trying to get their side to vote, but I don't think they're that clever and that numpty Newton Dunn gets excited about MoE moves to the Tories.
Looks like a good week for UKIP. Although there are a couple more polls to go. Call Me Dave needs to work a bit harder if he wants the Kippers to come back to him.
It's Ed that needs the Kippers to return home, and they are not going to.
The particulars of the case are important. If it was a free stay car park without any form of ticketing system then I can't see how the Parking Company won as there is no way you can possibly say the parkee accepted any contract.
EDIT: It was a free stay car park, struggling to understand how £150 (or indeed the original £85) is a reasonable estimate of the losses the parking company experienced
Since the 1990s, there has been growing recognition that a rigid distinction between liquidated damages and penalty clauses is inadequate. Payments arising on breach which cannot properly be described as liquidated damages may be enforceable provided they are not extravagant and unconscionable, and if they are commercially justifiable, and if their predominant purpose is not to deter breaches of contract (Lordsvale Finance Plc v Bank of Zambia [1996] QB 752; Cine Bes Filmcilik ve Yapimcilik v United International Pictures [2004] 1 CLC 401 (CA)). The Court of Appeal was bound by this line of case law. Only the Supreme Court could resurrect the rigid distinction between unenforceable penalty clauses and enforceable provisions for liquidated damages.
Question: what's the lowest poll rating for Labour in the last 3 months? My memory tells me that they've bounced around the 30-35 zone a lot (mostly 33/34) but I can't recall a sub-30 score.
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
Right wing rags get Lab leads in their polls and lefty papers get Tory leaders.
Thankfully that is the case. Can you manage the constant hype if the reverse was true.
Not just that but I can imagine the conspiracy theories as well if lefty papers were getting Labour leads and right wing paper were getting Tory leads. With the reverse at least there is no questioning polling companies or their motivations.
"2. The Tory warnings of SNP/Labour are working. But not for the Tories. Tory vote isn't going up but UKIP and LIberal vote is."
I'd buy that.
"Don't vote for them" "OK!" "..."
The negative bit has to be matched by a positive bit.
The Tories have put forward a positive message of having mostly fixed the economy and having a plan to finish the job while offering sweeties for every stage of our lives. Their problem is either its not believed, been ineffective, or has already worked on those it will and won't bring in any more votes.
I've been grumbling about the polls for ages, only to be told by the PB sages that one mustn't criticise the polling gods, even a smidgen, less the full fury of the law descends on OGH.
Now everyone is complaining and crying "OUTLIER" and sobbing into their evening soup.
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
This one also is setting up three other films at a minimum.
I've been grumbling about the polls for ages, only to be told by the PB sages that one mustn't criticise the polling gods, even a smidgen, less the full fury of the law descends on OGH.
Now everyone is complaining and crying "OUTLIER" and sobbing into their evening soup.
The UKIP figure doesn't look like an outlier, it is pretty consistent with their previous values. Labour's, on the other hand...
As I said yesterday the Labour vote in white working class wards is collapsing to UKIP.
My mother who is a former labour voter and hasn't voted in years uptil the European elections,she's got the bug again thanks to UKIP.
Good to hear.It is all about immigration .No one believes 300,000 net extra pa or 600,000 gross is sustainable because it isn't.Vote destroyer for Labour who are copping the blame.
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
This one also is setting up three other films at a minimum.
Guardians 2, Black Panther and Captain America Civil War I'm guessing? Probably Thor 3 too.
This isn't spoilers in case anyone is wondering, we already know what movies are coming, and what order, and I've not explained what might lead me to believe it these particular ones are being set up in Ultron.
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
I liked Thor 2 as well. Loki is the best Marvel character bar none - superbly acted.
If you want grim Marvel I suggest Daredevil on Netflix. I'm only a few episodes in but the violence has been something else. It's very good.
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
This one also is setting up three other films at a minimum.
Guardians 2, Black Panther and Captain America Civil War I'm guessing? Probably Thor 3 too.
This isn't spoilers in case anyone is wondering, we already know what movies are coming, and what order, and I've not explained what might lead me to believe it these particular ones are being set up in Ultron.
Well Civil War next year, and the next two Avengers films, Infinity War I and II
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
When the polls don't behave, TSE hides his head in anything that comes to hand. Sometimes it's rolling in the sands of Zama; tonight, it's film fantasy.
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
When the polls don't behave, TSE hides his head in anything that comes to hand. Sometimes it's rolling in the sands of Zama; tonight, it's film fantasy.
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
I liked Thor 2 as well. Loki is the best Marvel character bar none - superbly acted.
If you want grim Marvel I suggest Daredevil on Netflix. I'm only a few episodes in but the violence has been something else. It's very good.
I actually was really disappointed in it. In deference to those who haven't seen it all yet I won't go into detail, but my disappointment wasn't at the grim tone (I don't mind it in a few things, but wouldn't want to live only on grim stuff), and the violence was very well done. Some truly great performances too.
Question: what's the lowest poll rating for Labour in the last 3 months? My memory tells me that they've bounced around the 30-35 zone a lot (mostly 33/34) but I can't recall a sub-30 score.
Last time Lab was below 30 was:
On 15 March Ashcroft had Lab on 29 (Con 31, Lab 29)
I've been grumbling about the polls for ages, only to be told by the PB sages that one mustn't criticise the polling gods, even a smidgen, less the full fury of the law descends on OGH.
Now everyone is complaining and crying "OUTLIER" and sobbing into their evening soup.
The difference is Mike that everyone else is not claiming that the polling firms are somehow fixing the results. That is what you were rightly criticised for and is what you will continue to be criticised for. As for talk of outliers that tends to be met with the same old truism that an outlier is any poll I don't like. As such it is a claim best ignored until it is backed up by further polling.
I have no idea if the polls are accurate. I am generally singularly bad at analysing polls or making claims off the back of them which is why I tend not to make claims beyond my modest wish for 12 % and 4-5 seats for UKIP. The only poll that really matters in the end is on 7th May and only then can anyone claim they were right or wrong.
Comments
UKIP 20% in England apparently, but not Gospel I emphasise
LD 10
Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodges
What's going on with this 4 point Tory lead Survation poll? Did someone jump the gun publishing it?
As an aside, given we've all been talking about if for at least six months, Grexit is the exact opposite of a "Black Swan" event. Since the Eurozone crisis started in 2010, Martin Wolf, Mathew Lynn and others have all stated that Grexit is pretty much inevitable.
Really, the only thing that has kept Greece in the Euro to date is that fact that the US has been pressuring Europe hard to make concessions to the Syriza led government - because they fear Greece getting into bed with Russia.
I'm sure there will be some resentment but how many votes it shifts and equally important where those votes are is not known.
I also suspect that there's quite a bit of respect for Sturgeon of the "Sturgeon fights for her people, I wish someone would do the same for us" type.
CON - 33% (+2)
LAB - 29% (-6)
UKIP - 18% (+3)
LDEM - 10% (+1)
[Before they deleted it]
Survation Opinion Poll (22nd - 23rd April)
CON - 33% (+2)
LAB - 29% (-6)
UKIP - 18% (+3)
LDEM - 10% (+1)
Maybe tossing a coin... with two semi finals and the winners of those going through to the final toss.
Wiki has the last one as 34/33/17/7
Now its only very unlikely.
UKIP will not be in the cabinet.
http://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shakeup/greek-government-faces-backlash-from-municipalities-over-cash-reserves-as-public-support-for-negotiating-strategy-plummets/
Black swans might have been a surprise to the Dutch explorers but they were hardly a 'game changing' discovery.
Whereas Grexit, whilst not being unexpected, will likely have a significant effect.
We really need a description for something which iss both unexpected and important.
How about 'potato discovery' ?
I reckon it was the single best value bet I have seen in over 10 years following this site - the true odds should have been about 1/10.
I opened a Paddy Power account specially but couldn't get as much as I wanted on.
[Before they took their poll down]
Survation Opinion Poll (22nd - 23rd April)
CON - 33% (+1)
LAB - 29% (-4)
UKIP - 18% (+1)
LDEM - 10% (+3)
@JBeattieMirror: @DailyMirror @Survation poll (was embargoed to 7pm) CON 33; LAB 29; LD 10; UKIP 18; SNP 4; GRE 4
Dramatic scenes as a shocking reversal in (continued p94).
Hey, where's compouter gone?
Or people genuinely don;t want an SNP/labour coalition.
you decide.
NEW: Survation/@DailyMirror (chg vs 17/04) CON 33% (-1); LAB 29% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 10% (+3); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 4% (+1); AP 1% (-1)
The last Survation was
Con 34
Lab 33
UKIP 17
LD 7
Grn 3
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Final-Mirror-VII-Tables-2304.pdf
BritainElects in the doghouse for breaking the embargo?
Con -1
Lab -4
LD +3
UKIP +1
Even the thought that Tories have to get UKIP vote down (hence the last big lead when UKIP were down on 7%), then in this one UKIP are up on 18%...18%....Lib Dems up into double digits and the Tories still have 4% lead.
But in Panelbase, Tories 3 behind with UKIP up on 17.
Right wing rags get Lab leads in their polls and lefty papers get Tory leads
What will tonight's ComRes for the mail show?
"1. The next Westminster general election is now about 5 weeks away..."
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
Survation Opinion Poll (22nd - 23rd April)
CON - 33% (-1)
LAB - 29% (-4)
UKIP - 18% (+1)
LDEM - 10% (+3)
GRN - 4% (+1)
(YouGov polls only 0.6% Labour lead!!!)
(Part-ELBOW inc. all 10 polls this week = 0.3% Lab lead)
1. It's an outlier.
2. The Tory warnings of SNP/Labour are working. But not for the Tories. Tory vote isn't going up but UKIP and LIberal vote is.
basically UKIP gained 1% from Cons,
Libs and Greens gained from Lab
Con 33.6
Lab 30.0
LDem 11.0
UKIP 16.5
SNP 4.5
Green 4.1
with LD at 15.4% in Scotland ahead of Con at 12.2%
Those in LibDem-Con marginals ?
Those in LibDem-Lab marginals ?
Those in Con-Lab marginals ?
Its not just getting the votes that matters but WHERE you get them.
The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
(9 polls 7 pollsters)
Con -10
Lab -8
UKIP +9
LD +4
Green -3
The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I'd buy that.
"Don't vote for them"
"OK!"
"..."
The negative bit has to be matched by a positive bit.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
With any luck she will now vote Green not Labour...
Now everyone is complaining and crying "OUTLIER" and sobbing into their evening soup.
No. UKIP is benefiting from its response to the migrant crisis in the Med.
Of course, it completely sailed over the heads on the commentariat. They ignored Farage.
But the voters were listening....
This isn't spoilers in case anyone is wondering, we already know what movies are coming, and what order, and I've not explained what might lead me to believe it these particular ones are being set up in Ultron.
If you want grim Marvel I suggest Daredevil on Netflix. I'm only a few episodes in but the violence has been something else. It's very good.
South 21 (-6)
North 34 (-9)
The force is strong with you, Obiwan
You're like my boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
On 15 March Ashcroft had Lab on 29 (Con 31, Lab 29)
I have no idea if the polls are accurate. I am generally singularly bad at analysing polls or making claims off the back of them which is why I tend not to make claims beyond my modest wish for 12 % and 4-5 seats for UKIP. The only poll that really matters in the end is on 7th May and only then can anyone claim they were right or wrong.
LAB had 29.7% share in 2010. Tonight's Survation/Mirror poll has them on 29%.