The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
I liked Thor 2 as well. Loki is the best Marvel character bar none - superbly acted.
If you want grim Marvel I suggest Daredevil on Netflix. I'm only a few episodes in but the violence has been something else. It's very good.
I actually was really disappointed in it. In deference to those who haven't seen it all yet I won't go into detail, but my disappointment wasn't at the grim tone (I don't mind it in a few things, but wouldn't want to live only on grim stuff), and the violence was very well done. Some truly great performances too.
Ok. I'm on episode 4 so can't really offer a rounded opinion of the whole series.
What do we think of chance of riots breaking out in the days after the general election? Strangley we have got this odd period up till the 18th of May when parliment reconvenes. What was Cameron thinking of in postponing it?
We all remember how in 2010 there was a seamless transfer to the coalition. But remeber there were plenty of people on the streets in the days after the 2010 election to demand electroal reform. Kay Burley was memorably heckled by anti-Murdoch protestors. It's now easy to envisage a scenario in which there's a hung parliament with the Tories having got most votes and seats. Cameron, as is his right, could stick it out and see if he could piece something together. What could light the tider box would be if the right wing press starts throwing its weight around and tries to claim a Labour government supported by the SNP would be illegitimate. There will surely be people on the streets protesting and it could easily turn ugly.
Nice poll for the Tories. lol, up and down like a strumpet's gusset. How can people find this election boring??! How can they SAY it is boring?
Answer is: they shouldn't, and it isn't. Record numbers of people are registering. This is an excitingly unpredictable election, it's just that all the interest is happening online and on TV rather in poster-world and in hustings.
Things Have Moved On.
Maybe in Luvvie world but the rest of the country is enjoying life.
Looking at the survation tables looks like an outlier in favour of the LD, they hit 16% in London and 14% in Scotland, even weirder on the constituency specific question where they hit 17% & 15% in London & Scotland.
Question: what's the lowest poll rating for Labour in the last 3 months? My memory tells me that they've bounced around the 30-35 zone a lot (mostly 33/34) but I can't recall a sub-30 score.
Last time Lab was below 30 was:
On 15 March Ashcroft had Lab on 29 (Con 31, Lab 29)
What do we think of chance of riots breaking out in the days after the general election? Strangley we have got this odd period up till the 18th of May when parliment reconvenes. What was Cameron thinking of in postponing it?
We all remember how in 2010 there was a seamless transfer to the coalition. But remeber there were plenty of people on the streets in the days after the 2010 election to demand electroal reform. Kay Burley was memorably heckled by anti-Murdoch protestors. It's now easy to envisage a scenario in which there's a hung parliament with the Tories having got most votes and seats. Cameron, as is his right, could stick it out and see if he could piece something together. What could light the tider box would be if the right wing press starts throwing its weight around and tries to claim a Labour government supported by the SNP would be illegitimate. There will surely be people on the streets protesting and it could easily turn ugly.
In 2010, the election was on May the 6th.
Parliament reconvened on the 18th.
This year, the election on the 7th of May, and Parliament reconvenes on the 18th.
Maybe the Tory attacks on the SNP are increasing Tory to LD tactical voting in SNP/Lib Dem marginals. This would be a sensible approach for a Tory voter in those seats, given the messaging.
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
When the polls don't behave, TSE hides his head in anything that comes to hand. Sometimes it's rolling in the sands of Zama; tonight, it's film fantasy.
You really do talk the most arrant nonsense.
You're like my boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
You claim to have bollocks: I don't believe it. Surely you have to prove it.
If labour aren't careful, they are going to be ghetto-ised around the big English inner cities. Scotland is gone, Wales is going nowhere and now they may be starting to lose the Northern towns.
Are we just better off waiting till May 7th? The pollsters really seem all over the shop, and unless there is huge convergence someone is going to have egg on face. The only problem is we don't know which one.
The Age of Ultron was fecking awesome. Not hitting the heights of the first, but still pretty impressive.
Only one mid credits scene.
I loved it. Not as many laugh out loud moments, but then the first movie was essentially a celebration of its own existence, whereas this one had a darker (but not grim, it's still a Marvel movie) feel to it.
Sooner or later one of these movies is going to be unequivocally bad (I know Thor 2 is the lowest rated, but I liked it and it still did ok), no-one can keep a run like this going. But the run hasn't ended yet.
When the polls don't behave, TSE hides his head in anything that comes to hand. Sometimes it's rolling in the sands of Zama; tonight, it's film fantasy.
You really do talk the most arrant nonsense.
You're like my boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
You claim to have bollocks: I don't believe it. Surely you have to prove it.
That's how Brooks Newmark and Anthony Weiner got into trouble.
Now everyone is complaining and crying "OUTLIER" and sobbing into their evening soup.
The force is strong with you, Obiwan
Theres only one Obiwan Kenobe of British politics and that's Alex Salmond. Thought to have been slain in battle last September he has nonetheless returned more powerful than you could ever imagine. He who holds the balance holds the power as he would say. The force is strong with this one.
So who is right - Panelbase or Survation? On UKIP, no chance of them being in coalition, they simply won't win enough seats to be a player (I'm sticking by 3). They might rack up a whole load of second places though, which stands them in good stead for 2020 barring amateur implosion.
Maybe the Tory attacks on the SNP are increasing Tory to LD tactical voting in SNP/Lib Dem marginals. This would be a sensible approach for a Tory voter in those seats, given the messaging.
3% is almost half of Scotland's votes ! Lib Dems didn't have that many to begin with.
So who is right - Panelbase or Survation? On UKIP, no chance of them being in coalition, they simply won't win enough seats to be a player (I'm sticking by 3). They might rack up a whole load of second places though, which stands them in good stead for 2020 barring amateur implosion.
Well Survation is incorrect if they think the LD are going to get 17% in London and 15% in Scotland, not even ICM gives those kinds of figures. I think they hit a rare patch of LD responders in those areas, hence the skew from LAB to LD.
SPUD The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing (9 polls 7 pollsters) Con -10 Lab -8 UKIP +9 LD +4 Green -3 The best way of telling the way the political wind is blowing
You clearly have experience writing Lib Dem Focus leaflets.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/judgment.pdf has the full judgement from the Luftur Rahman election court. New election for mayor + a local by-election in Stepney ward to be held. (I'm not clear why the by-election in Stepney ward...?)
However, I note the judgement states: "the court finds that corrupt practices extensively prevailed at the election both of the Mayor and of the Councillors for the twenty wards of Tower Hamlets held on 22 May 2014." Shouldn't there be by-elections in all 20 wards? Or, if someone brought a new case about those wards, would they not instantly win?
There was no petition to void their election and the time to do so has now passed. If they had any honour they'd resign.
The judgement is an absolute zinger. It demolishes the sort of racial / religious identity politics practised by someone like Rahman, with its attendant fraud and corruption.
Two passages struck me:-
"By the 21st century, however, a combination of the extremely lax rules relating to the registration of electors and the introduction of postal voting on demand made personation once again viable. The ease of postal vote fraud and the difficulty of policing it led to such a great upsurge in personation that, in the Birmingham Case, the number of false votes was virtually half of all votes recorded as having been cast for the winning candidates."
and
"a significant proportion of Bangladeshis do not speak English as a first language, including Bangladeshis who were born in Britain and, in some cases, whose parents were born in Britain. It seems not uncommon to find residents who are British citizens, fully entitled to vote, but who do not speak English to any real extent. This is not intended as any criticism of the community: it is simply a matter of observable fact. Experience teaches that, in any community, the inability to communicate readily with members of other communities is bound to be more inward-facing. The sense of community cohesion and solidarity is increased but at a cost of increasing alienation from other communities."
What do we think of chance of riots breaking out in the days after the general election? Strangley we have got this odd period up till the 18th of May when parliment reconvenes. What was Cameron thinking of in postponing it?
We all remember how in 2010 there was a seamless transfer to the coalition. But remeber there were plenty of people on the streets in the days after the 2010 election to demand electroal reform. Kay Burley was memorably heckled by anti-Murdoch protestors. It's now easy to envisage a scenario in which there's a hung parliament with the Tories having got most votes and seats. Cameron, as is his right, could stick it out and see if he could piece something together. What could light the tider box would be if the right wing press starts throwing its weight around and tries to claim a Labour government supported by the SNP would be illegitimate. There will surely be people on the streets protesting and it could easily turn ugly.
Bonkers. The general election in 2010 was held on 6 May. The commission for opening the new Parliament was read on 18 May, and the Speech from the Throne occurred on 25 May. Cameron, for his many faults, has not postponed anything. In fact, the period between the general election and the meeting of the new Parliament will be a day shorter this year than in 2010.
The formation of a new government occurred in 2010, as it usually does, before the meeting of the new Parliament. It occurred relatively seamlessly because there was a coalition agreement between two parties together commanding a comfortable majority in the House of Commons.
I feel sorry for the poor sods that have to design a computer model that projects seat totals based on a few returns.
Pong is right. The exit polls could cause mayhem and confusion in the immediate aftermath of the voting. So who will doing these exit polls? The BBC, C4, Sky, to name but 3. Probably local ones as well from LBC and Scotland. I'm sweating to think of it.
I was trying to figure out how many *raw* voters make up the exit poll - seems to be 100,000-200,000
Can anyone remember, in 2010, if the exit poll tables were released as well as the seat numbers? It would be extraordinarily helpful to have the tables @ 10.01pm!
Lucy Kelly @lucyk6992 2h2 hours ago "@lillthrocksu YouGov Nowcast has UKIP candidate Peter Harris on 50.4% in Dagenham and Rainham. Also ukip in 2nd place in Hackney south
Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight
The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.
Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight
The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.
I feel sorry for the poor sods that have to design a computer model that projects seat totals based on a few returns.
Pong is right. The exit polls could cause mayhem and confusion in the immediate aftermath of the voting. So who will doing these exit polls? The BBC, C4, Sky, to name but 3. Probably local ones as well from LBC and Scotland. I'm sweating to think of it.
I was trying to figure out how many *raw* voters make up the exit poll - seems to be 100,000-200,000
Can anyone remember, in 2010, if the exit poll tables were released as well as the seat numbers? It would be extraordinarily helpful to have the tables @ 10.01pm!
I don't think any tables have ever been issued, certainly not on the night.
They also didn't give vote shares last time - just predicted seats.
I put the poll into electoral calculus with a Scotland prediction (SNP 47, Labour 27 etc) and it gave:
Con 295 Lab 265 SNP 48 LD 18 UKIP 2 PC 3 Other 1 NI 18
If that was the outcome it could get very messy. Which would be fun!
It would be messy, I guess it would mean a Tory minority government, which would fall within a year or so, or less. And then I expect a new election followed by a Tory-LD Coalition as people reject the instability, and return to a post Clegg Lib Dem party.
Maybe!
An interesting question we haven't really discussed is how bad would the Labour performance have to be for Miliband to immediately get the boot. Getting fewer votes than Gordon and losing Scotland would surely seal his fate. I suspect he'll be gone if he is unable to form any kind of government.
Just a question. If the Tories formed a minority government and Cameron stuck to his offer of an EU referendum, does it need to pass through the Commons first?
If it does and Cameron calls for a vote and it gets voted down, could Cameron then theoretically call another election on the basis that his promise of an EU referendum can only pass under a Tory majority?
And how does all this fit with the 5-year-term rule?
I clearly don't know enough about politics?!? If I'm confused, then imagine the average voter.
Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight
The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.
Never mind suicidal, if he's 40 behind them I don't think mathematically he can form a government. Not a majority one at any rate. I suppose she's trying to say that even if she cannot ensure a majority for him, she still won't permit a Tory minority.
Never has someone not appreciated getting so much support from another person as Ed is right now.
I put the poll into electoral calculus with a Scotland prediction (SNP 47, Labour 27 etc) and it gave:
Con 295 Lab 265 SNP 48 LD 18 UKIP 2 PC 3 Other 1 NI 18
If that was the outcome it could get very messy. Which would be fun!
It would be messy, I guess it would mean a Tory minority government, which would fall within a year or so, or less. And then I expect a new election followed by a Tory-LD Coalition as people reject the instability, and return to a post Clegg Lib Dem party.
Maybe!
An interesting question we haven't really discussed is how bad would the Labour performance have to be for Miliband to immediately get the boot. Getting fewer votes than Gordon and losing Scotland would surely seal his fate. I suspect he'll be gone if he is unable to form any kind of government.
If Labour don't form a government Ed will be finished. He has no support base inside Labour, so no-one to fight for him.
Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight
The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.
Agreed. If we have to accept the elected representatives of the Scots - and we do - then they equally have to accept the democratic result of the election in E&W. Labour would be crucified if they took power in such circumstances.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/judgment.pdf has the full judgement from the Luftur Rahman election court. New election for mayor + a local by-election in Stepney ward to be held. (I'm not clear why the by-election in Stepney ward...?)
However, I note the judgement states: "the court finds that corrupt practices extensively prevailed at the election both of the Mayor and of the Councillors for the twenty wards of Tower Hamlets held on 22 May 2014." Shouldn't there be by-elections in all 20 wards? Or, if someone brought a new case about those wards, would they not instantly win?
There was no petition to void their election and the time to do so has now passed. If they had any honour they'd resign.
The judgement is an absolute zinger. It demolishes the sort of racial / religious identity politics practised by someone like Rahman, with its attendant fraud and corruption.
Two passages struck me:-
"By the 21st century, however, a combination of the extremely lax rules relating to the registration of electors and the introduction of postal voting on demand made personation once again viable. The ease of postal vote fraud and the difficulty of policing it led to such a great upsurge in personation that, in the Birmingham Case, the number of false votes was virtually half of all votes recorded as having been cast for the winning candidates."
and
"a significant proportion of Bangladeshis do not speak English as a first language, including Bangladeshis who were born in Britain and, in some cases, whose parents were born in Britain. It seems not uncommon to find residents who are British citizens, fully entitled to vote, but who do not speak English to any real extent. This is not intended as any criticism of the community: it is simply a matter of observable fact. Experience teaches that, in any community, the inability to communicate readily with members of other communities is bound to be more inward-facing. The sense of community cohesion and solidarity is increased but at a cost of increasing alienation from other communities."
Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.
Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight
The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.
It would be suicide for Labour. For Miliband it would be the last lifeboat in sight.
Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight
The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.
Agreed. If we have to accept the elected representatives of the Scots - and we do - then they equally have to accept the democratic result of the election in E&W.
You'd think so, but somehow I imagine they will argue otherwise. Call it a hunch.
I put the poll into electoral calculus with a Scotland prediction (SNP 47, Labour 27 etc) and it gave:
Con 295 Lab 265 SNP 48 LD 18 UKIP 2 PC 3 Other 1 NI 18
If that was the outcome it could get very messy. Which would be fun!
It would be messy, I guess it would mean a Tory minority government, which would fall within a year or so, or less. And then I expect a new election followed by a Tory-LD Coalition as people reject the instability, and return to a post Clegg Lib Dem party.
Maybe!
An interesting question we haven't really discussed is how bad would the Labour performance have to be for Miliband to immediately get the boot. Getting fewer votes than Gordon and losing Scotland would surely seal his fate. I suspect he'll be gone if he is unable to form any kind of government.
If Labour don't form a government Ed will be finished. He has no support base inside Labour, so no-one to fight for him.
Sounds about right. In any case I think the days of leaders not winning at least a plurality and being able to stay on is probably over.
Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight
The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.
Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight
The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.
I don't think he can if it is 40 seats.
Given a fair wind, the best possible result would be Sturgeon controlling 64 seats (59 SNP and 5 Plaid), it's then down to the Liberals and Respect. If Galloway loses and the Libs face Gotterdamerung finishing with 8 seats, then it is possible that EICINPIPM can happen with the Tories 35 seats ahead.
I put the poll into electoral calculus with a Scotland prediction (SNP 47, Labour 27 etc) and it gave:
Con 295 Lab 265 SNP 48 LD 18 UKIP 2 PC 3 Other 1 NI 18
If that was the outcome it could get very messy. Which would be fun!
It would be messy, I guess it would mean a Tory minority government, which would fall within a year or so, or less. And then I expect a new election followed by a Tory-LD Coalition as people reject the instability, and return to a post Clegg Lib Dem party.
Maybe!
An interesting question we haven't really discussed is how bad would the Labour performance have to be for Miliband to immediately get the boot. Getting fewer votes than Gordon and losing Scotland would surely seal his fate. I suspect he'll be gone if he is unable to form any kind of government.
Labour do not have a great history of getting rid of their leaders (Blair being an odd exception). After all, they gave Kinnock another go. And however much I think he's hopeless, it is hard to blame Scottish Labour's problems on Miliband. Those problems are much deeper-rooted than anything that has happened in the last five years: the indy ref just exposed the problems.
Unless it is an absolutely terrible result in England, it will be up to him whether he jumps.
The sad thing is I cannot see anyone on Labour's front bench who would be a suitable replacement. They're all hopeless, tained by government, or both. They'd be wise to look on the backbenches, or just to ask the unions who they want. ;-)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/judgment.pdf has the full judgement from the Luftur Rahman election court. New election for mayor + a local by-election in Stepney ward to be held. (I'm not clear why the by-election in Stepney ward...?)
However, I note the judgement states: "the court finds that corrupt practices extensively prevailed at the election both of the Mayor and of the Councillors for the twenty wards of Tower Hamlets held on 22 May 2014." Shouldn't there be by-elections in all 20 wards? Or, if someone brought a new case about those wards, would they not instantly win?
There was no petition to void their election and the time to do so has now passed. If they had any honou
Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.
Of course he was. Goddamn it, Ken. Honestly, on a personal level he seems very likable, and as I am not a Londoner I have no opinion on whether he was a good mayor or not, but he seems to get very angry and bitter when he loses, and he clearly seems Rahman as being on his team, given he campaigned for the man even after he was kicked out of Labour.
I doubt if all labour MPs would even support ed, even in the first instance. The more sensible ones might decide to form an independent rump with the lib dems.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/judgment.pdf has the full judgement from the Luftur Rahman election court. New election for mayor + a local by-election in Stepney ward to be held. (I'm not clear why the by-election in Stepney ward...?)
However, I note the judgement states: "the court finds that corrupt practices extensively prevailed at the election both of the Mayor and of the Councillors for the twenty wards of Tower Hamlets held on 22 May 2014." Shouldn't there be by-elections in all 20 wards? Or, if someone brought a new case about those wards, would they not instantly win?
There was no petition to void their election and the time to do so has now passed. If they had any honour they'd resign.
The judgement is an absolute zinger. It demolishes the sort of racial / religious identity politics practised by someone like Rahman, with its attendant fraud and corruption.
Two passages struck me:-
"By the 21st century, however, a combination of the extremely lax rules relating to the registration of electors and the introduction of postal voting on demand made personation once again viable. The ease of postal vote fraud and the difficulty of policing it led to such a great upsurge in personation that, in the Birmingham Case, the number of false votes was virtually half of all votes recorded as having been cast for the winning candidates."
and
"a significant proportion of Bangladeshis do not speak English as a first language, including Bangladeshis who were born in Britain and, in some cases, whose parents were born in Britain. It seems not uncommon to find residents who are British citizens, fully entitled to vote, but who do not speak English to any real extent. This is not intended as any criticism of the community: it is simply a matter of observable fact. Experience teaches that, in any community, the inability to communicate readily with members of other communities is bound to be more inward-facing. The sense of community cohesion and solidarity is increased but at a cost of increasing alienation from other communities."
There was a Labour MP in the Evening Standard earlier complaining about individual vote registration. It would seem like they're getting quite upset that the Conservatives have clamped down on their ability to commit voter fraud among immigrant communities.
What's important is that the Conservatives react to this with a concrete response. Our lack of action when these things happen is what causes people to turn to UKIP.
Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight
The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.
Agreed. If we have to accept the elected representatives of the Scots - and we do - then they equally have to accept the democratic result of the election in E&W. Labour would be crucified if they took power in such circumstances.
Sorry but that's a totally flawed logic. It's a UK parliament. Whoever can command a majority in the House of Commons can form a government. No-one else.
I've voted in every GE since I've been old enough and, since then, I've always turned out for the Euros and the locals too (except when on holiday once in 2008).
But... at the moment I just don't even know if I'll turn out to vote this time or which candidate I'll vote for if I do. I suspect that, come the day, a sense of duty will march me to the polling station - but as for what I'll do when I get there I honestly haven't a clue.
Will you be tossing a coin or rolling a dice ?
I feel like I'm in the same position btw
Me too. It's not going to be Labour other than that not really sure. So that's 3 of us on this site already so I wonder how many more are going to do an impulse vote on the day and just hope?
I was trying to figure out how many *raw* voters make up the exit poll - seems to be 100,000-200,000
Can anyone remember, in 2010, if the exit poll tables were released as well as the seat numbers? It would be extraordinarily helpful to have the tables @ 10.01pm!
I thought it was 10000 - 20000 [ 100 x 100 = 10000 ]
I've voted in every GE since I've been old enough and, since then, I've always turned out for the Euros and the locals too (except when on holiday once in 2008).
But... at the moment I just don't even know if I'll turn out to vote this time or which candidate I'll vote for if I do. I suspect that, come the day, a sense of duty will march me to the polling station - but as for what I'll do when I get there I honestly haven't a clue.
Will you be tossing a coin or rolling a dice ?
I feel like I'm in the same position btw
Me too. It's not going to be Labour other than that not really sure. So that's 3 of us on this site already so I wonder how many more are going to do an impulse vote on the day and just hope?
You are going to vote Tory. Why pretend otherwise ?
"Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC."
I have no polite word to describe Livingstone.
It is quite simply shameful for the Labour party that a man such as him should still be a member let alone its official candidate at the last London Mayoral election.
The Labour party were quite willing to tolerate Rahman when he was a Labour man. Their conduct when they deselected himin favour of some other ethnic minority councillor was severely criticised by the judge. If you think of voters as members of communities to be patronised and appeased and engaged with only through leaders who can harvest votes for you; if you think that some sort of identity is the only significant fact about a person (their race / skin colour / sex etc) why wouldn't you behave in the way Rahman has done?
If having people living here, whose parents were born here not speaking English makes it easier to get their votes why would you bother with the whole integration malarkey. It makes my blood boil that there are places within walking distance of where I'm sitting right now where we have communities who have so little connection with this country that they cannot be bothered to learn its language but are entitled to vote - and that we have allowed this state of affairs to develop because it either benefited some of us or because we were too scared to challenge it and too feeble to insist that British law should apply in Britain.
Shame on Rahman, Livingstone and all those who facilitated and turned a blind eye to this debasement of our politics and our country.
I feel sorry for the poor sods that have to design a computer model that projects seat totals based on a few returns.
Pong is right. The exit polls could cause mayhem and confusion in the immediate aftermath of the voting. So who will doing these exit polls? The BBC, C4, Sky, to name but 3. Probably local ones as well from LBC and Scotland. I'm sweating to think of it.
Exit polls are always far more accurate than opinion polls because people are being asked how they just voted a few moments before. There's no reason why the exit poll should cause any mayhem and confusion IMO. It's likely to be pretty much right again.
Am I alone in feeling slightly sorry for the pollsters? They are trying to measure something - future voting intention - that in many cases doesn't actually exist until they summon it into being with their questions. There's something slightly quantum about the whole thing.
I doubt if all labour MPs would even support ed, even in the first instance. The more sensible ones might decide to form an independent rump with the lib dems.
Enough English MPs in Con/Lab marginals would probably abstain from voting down Con Queen's speeches or Finance Bills so that a minority Con government could get them through. Would be unstable but too many Labour MPs would have to worry about their own employment status a few years down the line if they go hand in glove with the SNP to put Ed Miliband into No. 10 with fewer seats and votes than the Cons.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/judgment.pdf has the full judgement from the Luftur Rahman election court. New election for mayor + a local by-election in Stepney ward to be held. (I'm not clear why the by-election in Stepney ward...?)
However, I note the judgement states: "the court finds that corrupt practices extensively prevailed at the election both of the Mayor and of the Councillors for the twenty wards of Tower Hamlets held on 22 May 2014." Shouldn't there be by-elections in all 20 wards? Or, if someone brought a new case about those wards, would they not instantly win?
There was no petition to void their election and the time to do so has now passed. If they had any honour they'd resign.
The judgement is an absolute zinger. It demolishes the sort of racial / religious identity politics practised by someone like Rahman, with its attendant fraud and corruption.
Two passages struck me:-
"By the 21st century, however, a combination of the extremely lax rules relating to the registration of electors and the introduction of postal voting on demand made personation once again viable. The ease of postal vote fraud and the difficulty of policing it led to such a great upsurge in personation that, in the Birmingham Case, the number of false votes was virtually half of all votes recorded as having been cast
and
"a significant proportion of Bangladeshis do not speak English as a first language, including Bangladeshis who were born in Britain and, in some cases, whose parents were born in Britain. It seems not uncommon to find residents who are British citizens, fully entitled to vote, but who do not speak English to any real extent. This is not intended as any criticism of the community: it is simply a matter of observable fact. Experience teaches that, in any community, the inability to communicate readily with members of other communities is bound to be more inward-facing. The sense of community cohesion and solidarity is increased but at a cost of increasing alienation from other communities."
There was a Labour MP in the Evening Standard earlier complaining about individual vote registration. It would seem like they're getting quite upset that the Conservatives have clamped down on their ability to commit voter fraud among immigrant communities.
What's important is that the Conservatives react to this with a concrete response. Our lack of action when these things happen is what causes people to turn to UKIP.
Tower Hamlets is an example of Labour getting bitten on the arse by the ethnic identity politics that they're so keen to encourage.
Scotland is a massive example of Labour getting bitten on the arse after decades of whipping up grievance against the English.
Eventually, the Revolution, like Saturn, devours its own children.
Me too. It's not going to be Labour other than that not really sure. So that's 3 of us on this site already so I wonder how many more are going to do an impulse vote on the day and just hope?
A fair few, I suspect. The strangest thing is that I live in a tight marginal so, really, I ought to be feeling that my vote matters. I'm not feeling that.
Lucy Kelly @lucyk6992 2h2 hours ago "@lillthrocksu YouGov Nowcast has UKIP candidate Peter Harris on 50.4% in Dagenham and Rainham. Also ukip in 2nd place in Hackney south
Adam Boulton practically begging Menzies Campbell and Mags Curran to join the Sky News narrative of "anything to stop the SNP" but auld Mags couldn't stop herself laying into Campbell. Boulton seemed visibly disheartened.
No, I agree with Southam. Ed Miliband is not respected within Labour (the Blairites actively hate him for knifing his bruv). He is also clearly seen as a drag on the party and a vote loser, by almost everyone.
If he cannot form a government after May 2015 he'll be out on his arse in short order, unless the election is a dead heat, and NO ONE can form a government, meaning a 2nd election. He might just survive in that situation.
You might well be right. However we cannot underestimate the same tribal nature within Labour that elected Brown unopposed, or kept Kinnock in place after losing in '87.
Just look at Southam's tribal ability to vote Labour even after all his fine words about not voting Labour. ;-)
Miliband's fate may well depend on the nature of any defeat, and any possibility of another imminent GE.
However, the big doubt in my mind is the scale of Labour's defeat in Scotland. If they lose as many MPs as the polls suggest, then (as I think you have said in the past) they will lose a great deal of their historical powerbase. The Labour party after a massive Scottish defeat might be a very different beast - both in philosophy and policy - than it is at the moment. Miliband does not seem the right man to lead them through that.
I doubt if all labour MPs would even support ed, even in the first instance. The more sensible ones might decide to form an independent rump with the lib dems.
Enough English MPs in Con/Lab marginals would probably abstain from voting down Con Queen's speeches or Finance Bills so that a minority Con government could get them through. Would be unstable but too many Labour MPs would have to worry about their own employment status a few years down the line if they go hand in glove with the SNP to put Ed Miliband into No. 10 with fewer seats and votes than the Cons.
Wouldn't any Labour MPs who abstained be worried about getting deselected for next time or losing the whip?
I can't think of any more serious topic to have a three line whip on.
I doubt if all labour MPs would even support ed, even in the first instance. The more sensible ones might decide to form an independent rump with the lib dems.
But what would be the alternative? A Cameron government that cannot command a majority in the House. I agree Labour MPs may not go for it, but what then? An immediate second election? What are the chances on Harriet Harman as next PM in a caretaker role?
Sturgeon doing her best, again, to knife Ed Miliband.
Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak Nicola Sturgeon tells us tonight she would support Lab govt even if Tories were biggest party by 20, 30, or even 40 seats #newsnight
The SNP gain from English rancour and antipathy, they love all this. But it would be suicidal for Miliband to form a government with Sturgeon if he was 40 SEATS behind the Tories.
Agreed. If we have to accept the elected representatives of the Scots - and we do - then they equally have to accept the democratic result of the election in E&W. Labour would be crucified if they took power in such circumstances.
Wrong. An MP of the UK Parliament is an MP. All MPs are equal. There is no law which says a Scottish MP cannot vote in English matters - it is only a convention.
I think the SNP will flout some of those conventions. Their position will be:
- you want us to be in the UK.
- so we have got ourselves elected and we will use our votes.
- the fact that you do not have a separate English Parliament is not our business.
- if you do not like what we are doing, throw us out of the UK, i.e a referendum
- in the meantime, we have the votes to derail any government
- and, even to repeal the stupid FTPA 2011 would require a majority. So unless Labour and Conservatives both agree, the SNP is in a very powerful position irrespective of who is in power.
I am surprised there has not been much discussion on the implications of the FTPA 2011.
I've voted in every GE since I've been old enough and, since then, I've always turned out for the Euros and the locals too (except when on holiday once in 2008).
But... at the moment I just don't even know if I'll turn out to vote this time or which candidate I'll vote for if I do. I suspect that, come the day, a sense of duty will march me to the polling station - but as for what I'll do when I get there I honestly haven't a clue.
Will you be tossing a coin or rolling a dice ?
I feel like I'm in the same position btw
Me too. It's not going to be Labour other than that not really sure. So that's 3 of us on this site already so I wonder how many more are going to do an impulse vote on the day and just hope?
You are going to vote Tory. Why pretend otherwise ?
You said basically the same thing to me, and I'm one of the 6% of people who voted LD at the Euros (an election where there would be no need to vote tactically). Maybe you are capable of incorrectly predicting how people will vote?
As for this election, on balance I'd rather Cameron won (though I do not fear a Miliband win particularly; the radical Miliband some people fear I don't think exists to the degree the think), but my vote will not make a difference to the outcome and I have usually voted LD, so this time do not really feel sure which way to actually vote.
I considered Green purely to in my own minimal way boost the national vote share, I think smaller parties increasing their share is a good thing, but they haven't even put something through the letterbox yet, and I'm thinking whoever I vote for should at least have made some effort. At present, if someone knocks on the door I may well just vote for whichever party they belong to.
No, I agree with Southam. Ed Miliband is not respected within Labour (the Blairites actively hate him for knifing his bruv). He is also clearly seen as a drag on the party and a vote loser, by almost everyone.
If he cannot form a government after May 2015 he'll be out on his arse in short order, unless the election is a dead heat, and NO ONE can form a government, meaning a 2nd election. He might just survive in that situation.
You might well be right. However we cannot underestimate the same tribal nature within Labour that elected Brown unopposed, or kept Kinnock in place after losing in '87.
Just look at Southam's tribal ability to vote Labour even after all his fine words about not voting Labour. ;-)
Miliband's fate may well depend on the nature of any defeat, and any possibility of another imminent GE.
However, the big doubt in my mind is the scale of Labour's defeat in Scotland. If they lose as many MPs as the polls suggest, then (as I think you have said in the past) they will lose a great deal of their historical powerbase. The Labour party after a massive Scottish defeat might be a very different beast - both in philosophy and policy - than it is at the moment. Miliband does not seem the right man to lead them through that.
Ed's problem is that many see his election as leader as illegitimate. He lost the MPs vote and he lost the party member's vote. Its only the affiliate vote (with his face on the envelopes!) that got him elected. If he loses the election, I can't see the MPs that never wanted him and never voted for him letting him stay.
The debate on immigration is now so toxic that calling for Britain to take MORE "refugees" during an election campaign doesn't strike me as very clever. Some of those migrants no doubt are refugees but most are economic migrants who have no right to come to Europe. As much as I hate to say it, I agreed with Nick Clegg's response to the situation.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/judgment.pdf has the full judgement from the Luftur Rahman election court. New election for mayor + a local by-election in Stepney ward to be held. (I'm not clear why the by-election in Stepney ward...?)
However, I note the judgement states: "the court finds that corrupt practices extensively prevailed at the election both of the Mayor and of the Councillors for the twenty wards of Tower Hamlets held on 22 May 2014." Shouldn't there be by-elections in all 20 wards? Or, if someone brought a new case about those wards, would they not instantly win?
There was no petition to void their election and the time to do so has now passed. If they had any honou
Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC.
Of course he was. Goddamn it, Ken. Honestly, on a personal level he seems very likable, and as I am not a Londoner I have no opinion on whether he was a good mayor or not, but he seems to get very angry and bitter when he loses, and he clearly seems Rahman as being on his team, given he campaigned for the man even after he was kicked out of Labour.
He's not likeable. He's nasty. He's willing to stab people in the back. He's willing to say things about people which, if said by someone else or about different people, would rightly have a whole heap of criticism piled on him. He's not straight. You can tell a lot about a person by the company he keeps and the sorts of people he has allied himself too - Rahman being one of them - show the nature of the man.
The one thing he is good at is projecting a persona which blinds people to what he's really likel I intensely dislike his sort of politician and his sort of politics.
There are decent Labour people around, for whom I have respect even if I don't always share their politics. But Ken is not one of them.
@michaelsavage: Lord Mandelson swings behind Miliband. He tells Channel 4 News: "He has way exceeded my expectations and actually I’m proud of him." #GE2015
Comments
https://twitter.com/scotlandcallin/status/591300139689635840
We all remember how in 2010 there was a seamless transfer to the coalition. But remeber there were plenty of people on the streets in the days after the 2010 election to demand electroal reform. Kay Burley was memorably heckled by anti-Murdoch protestors. It's now easy to envisage a scenario in which there's a hung parliament with the Tories having got most votes and seats. Cameron, as is his right, could stick it out and see if he could piece something together. What could light the tider box would be if the right wing press starts throwing its weight around and tries to claim a Labour government supported by the SNP would be illegitimate. There will surely be people on the streets protesting and it could easily turn ugly.
Parliament reconvened on the 18th.
This year, the election on the 7th of May, and Parliament reconvenes on the 18th.
Labour strategists must be upset that Miliband's raw sexual magnetism has distracted attention from NHS week
Con 295
Lab 265
SNP 48
LD 18
UKIP 2
PC 3
Other 1
NI 18
If that was the outcome it could get very messy. Which would be fun!
Why on earth would the Lib Dems go up ? I could even understand if UKIP went up !
>Being Alive
Pick one.
I think they hit a rare patch of LD responders in those areas, hence the skew from LAB to LD.
The judgement is an absolute zinger. It demolishes the sort of racial / religious identity politics practised by someone like Rahman, with its attendant fraud and corruption.
Two passages struck me:-
"By the 21st century, however, a combination of the extremely lax rules relating to the registration of electors and the introduction of postal voting on demand made personation once again viable. The ease of postal vote fraud and the difficulty of policing it led to such a great upsurge in personation that, in the Birmingham Case, the number of false votes was virtually half of all votes recorded as having been cast for the winning candidates."
and
"a significant proportion of Bangladeshis do not speak English as a first language, including Bangladeshis who were born in Britain and, in some cases, whose parents were born in Britain. It seems not uncommon to find residents who are British citizens, fully entitled to vote, but who do not speak English to any real extent. This is not intended as any criticism of the community: it is simply a matter of observable fact. Experience teaches that, in any community, the inability to communicate readily with members of other communities is bound to be more inward-facing. The sense of community cohesion and solidarity is increased but at a cost of increasing alienation from other communities."
The formation of a new government occurred in 2010, as it usually does, before the meeting of the new Parliament. It occurred relatively seamlessly because there was a coalition agreement between two parties together commanding a comfortable majority in the House of Commons.
Survation - Con +4
Ashcroft - Con +4
Opinium - Con +4
ICM - Con + 4 (average of last 2)
Let's see how Comres go - they had Con+4 in the penultimate one.
I was trying to figure out how many *raw* voters make up the exit poll - seems to be 100,000-200,000
Can anyone remember, in 2010, if the exit poll tables were released as well as the seat numbers? It would be extraordinarily helpful to have the tables @ 10.01pm!
Lucy Kelly @lucyk6992 2h2 hours ago
"@lillthrocksu YouGov Nowcast has UKIP candidate Peter Harris on 50.4% in Dagenham and Rainham.
Also ukip in 2nd place in Hackney south
BBC/ITV/Sky jointly commission it.
They also didn't give vote shares last time - just predicted seats.
If it does and Cameron calls for a vote and it gets voted down, could Cameron then theoretically call another election on the basis that his promise of an EU referendum can only pass under a Tory majority?
And how does all this fit with the 5-year-term rule?
I clearly don't know enough about politics?!? If I'm confused, then imagine the average voter.
Never has someone not appreciated getting so much support from another person as Ed is right now.
Unless it is an absolutely terrible result in England, it will be up to him whether he jumps.
The sad thing is I cannot see anyone on Labour's front bench who would be a suitable replacement. They're all hopeless, tained by government, or both. They'd be wise to look on the backbenches, or just to ask the unions who they want. ;-)
I doubt if all labour MPs would even support ed, even in the first instance. The more sensible ones might decide to form an independent rump with the lib dems.
What's important is that the Conservatives react to this with a concrete response. Our lack of action when these things happen is what causes people to turn to UKIP.
Is there anything political on TV tonight besides regular QT and This Week etc?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05s4tcr/episodes/player
"Ken Livingstone was still defending Lutfur Rahman on LBC."
I have no polite word to describe Livingstone.
It is quite simply shameful for the Labour party that a man such as him should still be a member let alone its official candidate at the last London Mayoral election.
The Labour party were quite willing to tolerate Rahman when he was a Labour man. Their conduct when they deselected himin favour of some other ethnic minority councillor was severely criticised by the judge. If you think of voters as members of communities to be patronised and appeased and engaged with only through leaders who can harvest votes for you; if you think that some sort of identity is the only significant fact about a person (their race / skin colour / sex etc) why wouldn't you behave in the way Rahman has done?
If having people living here, whose parents were born here not speaking English makes it easier to get their votes why would you bother with the whole integration malarkey. It makes my blood boil that there are places within walking distance of where I'm sitting right now where we have communities who have so little connection with this country that they cannot be bothered to learn its language but are entitled to vote - and that we have allowed this state of affairs to develop because it either benefited some of us or because we were too scared to challenge it and too feeble to insist that British law should apply in Britain.
Shame on Rahman, Livingstone and all those who facilitated and turned a blind eye to this debasement of our politics and our country.
I wouldn't be too embarrassed to collect the money, but it's distinctly unlikely to happen.
Con LD - 5 more years..
Scotland is a massive example of Labour getting bitten on the arse after decades of whipping up grievance against the English.
Eventually, the Revolution, like Saturn, devours its own children.
Adam Boulton practically begging Menzies Campbell and Mags Curran to join the Sky News narrative of "anything to stop the SNP" but auld Mags couldn't stop herself laying into Campbell. Boulton seemed visibly disheartened.
Just look at Southam's tribal ability to vote Labour even after all his fine words about not voting Labour. ;-)
Miliband's fate may well depend on the nature of any defeat, and any possibility of another imminent GE.
However, the big doubt in my mind is the scale of Labour's defeat in Scotland. If they lose as many MPs as the polls suggest, then (as I think you have said in the past) they will lose a great deal of their historical powerbase. The Labour party after a massive Scottish defeat might be a very different beast - both in philosophy and policy - than it is at the moment. Miliband does not seem the right man to lead them through that.
I can't think of any more serious topic to have a three line whip on.
I think the SNP will flout some of those conventions. Their position will be:
- you want us to be in the UK.
- so we have got ourselves elected and we will use our votes.
- the fact that you do not have a separate English Parliament is not our business.
- if you do not like what we are doing, throw us out of the UK, i.e a referendum
- in the meantime, we have the votes to derail any government
- and, even to repeal the stupid FTPA 2011 would require a majority. So unless Labour and Conservatives both agree, the SNP is in a very powerful position irrespective of who is in power.
I am surprised there has not been much discussion on the implications of the FTPA 2011.
As for this election, on balance I'd rather Cameron won (though I do not fear a Miliband win particularly; the radical Miliband some people fear I don't think exists to the degree the think), but my vote will not make a difference to the outcome and I have usually voted LD, so this time do not really feel sure which way to actually vote.
I considered Green purely to in my own minimal way boost the national vote share, I think smaller parties increasing their share is a good thing, but they haven't even put something through the letterbox yet, and I'm thinking whoever I vote for should at least have made some effort. At present, if someone knocks on the door I may well just vote for whichever party they belong to.
I'm starting to wonder what the future is for that movement anyway.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3048772/We-t-leave-people-drown-Miliband-demands-new-rescue-missions-save-fleeing-migrants-calls-Britain-refugees.html
The debate on immigration is now so toxic that calling for Britain to take MORE "refugees" during an election campaign doesn't strike me as very clever. Some of those migrants no doubt are refugees but most are economic migrants who have no right to come to Europe. As much as I hate to say it, I agreed with Nick Clegg's response to the situation.
The one thing he is good at is projecting a persona which blinds people to what he's really likel I intensely dislike his sort of politician and his sort of politics.
There are decent Labour people around, for whom I have respect even if I don't always share their politics. But Ken is not one of them.