politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Marf cartoon at the start of what’ll be a busy polling ni
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Marf cartoon at the start of what’ll be a busy polling night
Panelbase has 3% LAB lead
LAB 34% (NC), CON 31% (-2%), UKIP 17% (+1), LD 7% (-1), GRN 4% (NC)
Comments
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First! Just been YouGoved - Lib Dems >10%!!!0
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Hoping for a big boil ?
Large Bols ?
Big Balls ?0 -
Third!0
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Bollinger darling, simply ab fab... you should try it.TGOHF said:Hoping for a big boil ?
Large Bols ?
Big Balls ?0 -
Great minds etc.!Flightpath1 said:
Bollinger darling, simply ab fab... you should try it.TGOHF said:Hoping for a big boil ?
Large Bols ?
Big Balls ?0 -
Even if it's big poll I still don't quite understand what he means. Just, he hopes Survation is exciting for some reason?TGOHF said:Hoping for a big boil ?
Large Bols ?
Big Balls ?0 -
Do Nick Clegg, Mrs Clegg and Danny Alexander actually believe what they are are saying about UKIP and the Tory backbenchers or is it a really shoddy way of campaigning?
Likening them to the extreme/far right and claiming in the case of Mrs Clegg that they would deport her.
Takes me back to the Brown/Blair years where the mere mention of the word immigrant would have accusations of racism made.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3051960/Right-wing-Tories-probably-want-kick-country-altogether-says-Miriam-Clegg.html0 -
Perhaps a panelbase poll of Dundee residents - SNP should be in the top 3 I reckon.Stereotomy said:
Even if it's big poll I still don't quite understand what he means. Just, he hopes Survation is exciting for some reason?TGOHF said:Hoping for a big boil ?
Large Bols ?
Big Balls ?0 -
ComRes phone poll, perhaps?Stereotomy said:
Even if it's big poll I still don't quite understand what he means. Just, he hopes Survation is exciting for some reason?TGOHF said:Hoping for a big boil ?
Large Bols ?
Big Balls ?0 -
Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.0 -
It comes after Mr Clegg warned the 'bandwagons of the far right' are encircling an 'increasingly hapless Conservative leadership' which is losing all grip on the party.
Order five crates of Chutzpah for Mr Clegg.0 -
Scott Jordan Harris (@ScottFilmCritic)
23/04/2015 17:10
This is
a) Beautiful
b) Further proof that hospital parking should be free
(Via nedhardy.com) pic.twitter.com/loCPUgqPEH
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Any PB legal experts care to comment on the last paragraph? It would certainly be satisfying to do that.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/want-to-avoid-a-parking-ticket-then-play-the-parking-cowboys-at-their-own-game/0 -
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.
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Those MOE movements sustain me. And let's not forget those margin of error MOE movements.... tittertyson said:
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.0 -
The Times today:
"Greece will go bust next week, potentially pushing the highly indebted country into default and out of the eurozone and plunging the European Union into an unprecedented crisis."
What impact is this likely to have on our GE?
Is it a possible Black Swan event?0 -
The particulars of the case are important. If it was a free stay car park without any form of ticketing system then I can't see how the Parking Company won as there is no way you can possibly say the parkee accepted any contract.RobD said:Any PB legal experts care to comment on the last paragraph? It would certainly be satisfying to do that.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/want-to-avoid-a-parking-ticket-then-play-the-parking-cowboys-at-their-own-game/
EDIT: It was a free stay car park, struggling to understand how £150 (or indeed the original £85) is a reasonable estimate of the losses the parking company experienced0 -
No more Ipsos MORI polls until the big day apparently.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.0 -
Part-ELBOW for the week so far (9 polls) = Lab 0.7% ahead0
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But I like the idea of charging a letter receipt notice of £85! I wonder if he'll take it to the Supremr Court...Alistair said:
The particulars of the case are important. If it was a free stay car park without any form of ticketing system then I can't see how the Parking Company won as there is no way you can possibly say the parkee accepted any contract.RobD said:Any PB legal experts care to comment on the last paragraph? It would certainly be satisfying to do that.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/want-to-avoid-a-parking-ticket-then-play-the-parking-cowboys-at-their-own-game/0 -
I doubt it will help the Greens much.peter_from_putney said:The Times today:
"Greece will go bust next week, potentially pushing the highly indebted country into default and out of the eurozone and plunging the European Union into an unprecedented crisis."
What impact is this likely to have on our GE?
Is it a possible Black Swan event?
Will focus on the economy - plus the "cling to nurse" factor. But there have been so many warnings on Greece - and all Eurofudged - will the Grexit really happen in a flash this week - meh.0 -
I doubt it'll make much difference - it's too remote from most people.peter_from_putney said:The Times today|:
"Greece will go bust next week, potentially pushing the highly indebted country into default and out of the eurozone and plunging the European Union into an unprecedented crisis."
What impact is this likely to have on our GE?
Is it a possible Black Swan event?
But if it makes any tiny difference I would expect it to help Con marginally vs Lab - on the basis that crisis = risk = go for the safety first option.0 -
Probably more a case of looking for signs of a breakthrough. Panelbase was good for Lab and Ukip, if there were 3 more good polls for Lab today then worry lines at Tory HQ would get a lot deeper.tyson said:
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.0 -
Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing opinion polls. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! I just... DO things!tyson said:
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.0 -
Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch.0
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It's displacement activity while we wait for the Big Poll, the results of which will start to be announced in two weeks and five hours from now.tyson said:
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.0 -
Ye gadsJonathan said:Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch.
Poll movement this week courtesy of SPUD
(8 polls, 6 different pollsters)
Cons -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
How can you say not budged an inch? Why would you just make things up?0 -
Jonathan said:
Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch.
Yes they have. TNS ICM PanelBase have all moved Labours way!!Jonathan said:Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch.
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The Tory seats on SPIN have gone up by one to 15. I predict a Tory lead in the next poll.0
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Don't worry - posters of the losing side will be popping champagne corks at the first YG after the election as it means their team have won.OblitusSumMe said:
It's displacement activity while we wait for the Big Poll, the results of which will start to be announced in two weeks and five hours from now.tyson said:
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.
Only one poll that matters.0 -
You look nervous. Is it the ELBOWs? Wanna know how I got 'em?TGOHF said:
Don't worry - posters of the losing side will be popping champagne corks at the first YG after the election as it means their team have won.OblitusSumMe said:
It's displacement activity while we wait for the Big Poll, the results of which will start to be announced in two weeks and five hours from now.tyson said:
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.
Only one poll that matters.0 -
I did a large Yougov survey last week which was clearly not the daily one . Perhaps a large special poll for BES .Tabman said:0 -
Greece has supposedly been about to go bust for years now. I was tempted to increase my portfolio's weighting to gold but will put if off for another month as I expect some sort of fudge.TGOHF said:
I doubt it will help the Greens much.peter_from_putney said:The Times today:
"Greece will go bust next week, potentially pushing the highly indebted country into default and out of the eurozone and plunging the European Union into an unprecedented crisis."
What impact is this likely to have on our GE?
Is it a possible Black Swan event?
Will focus on the economy - plus the "cling to nurse" factor. But there have been so many warnings on Greece - and all Eurofudged - will the Grexit really happen in a flash this week - meh.
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Tories hit 50 as the country realises what its just done ?TGOHF said:
Don't worry - posters of the losing side will be popping champagne corks at the first YG after the election as it means their team have won.OblitusSumMe said:
It's displacement activity while we wait for the Big Poll, the results of which will start to be announced in two weeks and five hours from now.tyson said:
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.
Only one poll that matters.0 -
Nicola Sturgeon supplementaries ?MarkSenior said:
I did a large Yougov survey last week which was clearly not the daily one . Perhaps a large special poll for BES .Tabman said:0 -
Well, not a black swan since it's not entirely unexpected. More a swallow, as in one swallow does not make a summer, or in this case a Greek default does not make a Eurozone crisis.peter_from_putney said:The Times today:
"Greece will go bust next week, potentially pushing the highly indebted country into default and out of the eurozone and plunging the European Union into an unprecedented crisis."
What impact is this likely to have on our GE?
Is it a possible Black Swan event?0 -
Last night I did a VI for "Maximiles". No idea where that will end up.0
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More election fatigued. More nervous about the footie playoffs to be honest.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You look nervous. Is it the ELBOWs? Wanna know how I got 'em?TGOHF said:
Don't worry - posters of the losing side will be popping champagne corks at the first YG after the election as it means their team have won.OblitusSumMe said:
It's displacement activity while we wait for the Big Poll, the results of which will start to be announced in two weeks and five hours from now.tyson said:
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.
Only one poll that matters.0 -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/judgment.pdf has the full judgement from the Luftur Rahman election court. New election for mayor + a local by-election in Stepney ward to be held. (I'm not clear why the by-election in Stepney ward...?)
However, I note the judgement states: "the court finds that corrupt practices extensively prevailed at the election both of the Mayor and of the Councillors for the twenty wards of Tower Hamlets held on 22 May 2014." Shouldn't there be by-elections in all 20 wards? Or, if someone brought a new case about those wards, would they not instantly win?0 -
FPT
A general election isn't as final/big a decision as splitting up the UK. I'll stick with my first answer.Philip_Thompson said:
Right example, wrong conclusions. Yes there was a marked gender split but the polls were correct in picking this up, because the final answer matched quite closely to the polls. Its not a case that the pollsters incorrectly picked up the women's answers.anotherDave said:
No, I mean they're answering differently to men from the same demographic.Anorak said:
You mean they should do as they're told? That's a bit off.anotherDave said:
I've been wondering if that's an illusion, and come the day women will vote the same as the men.weejonnie said:
UKIP seem OK with men - but not with women.
We'll find out soon enough.
During the Scottish referendum there was a marked gender split in the polling. The conclusion offered by the pollsters was that women are more 'risk averse'.
I'm translating 'risk averse' to 'shy UKIP'.
Women probably are more "risk averse", so they're simply disproportionately not UKIP voters just as they were disproportionately not Yes voters.0 -
Greece kicked out the Euro.
Miliband in power.
British holidaymakers crying at the Foreign Exchange desks.0 -
The world needs people like you Sunil. I'd bet you'd lighten the mood of a funeral. The problem with politicians and many of our PB comrades too- they are either pompous or take themselves too seriously, and usually both. Not you.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing opinion polls. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! I just... DO things!tyson said:
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.
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If you really want a big punt with lots of liquidity and you've got more money than me - Buying Euros might be worth a bet !0
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Merkel reportedly wants Miliband to win, so we can expect her to kick the Greek can down the road for a few more weeks.0
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If the Tories lose this election, they may get a Darwin Award as compensation.
"..largely the Tories seem to have strategised regional media out of their grid. Even in areas they actually need to win, such as Bury North.
And with us they are strategising out the voters. Because I daresay most people in Bury North – or Bolton West or Hazel Grove – won’t switch on Newsnight to watch Osborne’s latest spiel about his long term economic plan.
More of them will listen to commercial radio or pick up the Manchester Evening News, or watch Granada while eating their tea. So as a strategy it seems pretty self-defeating."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/the-conservatives-are-strategising-regional-media-out-of-the-grid-and-it-wont-help-their-cause/
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Can I say how lovely England (and doubtless the rest of the British Isles) is on warm days in Spring.
Flowers, blossom, near growth on plants and the weather nice enough for outdoor work, play, eating and drinking but not too hot for them.
Likewise warm days in Autumn are lovely with their fruits and berries and changing leaf colour and again the weather at happy medium for outdoor activities.
Whereas hot days in Summer are too hot for comfotable outdoor activities and make everything look dried out.
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An online loyalty scheme?frpenkridge said:Last night I did a VI for "Maximiles". No idea where that will end up.
https://www.google.co.uk/#q=maximiles0 -
GE reduced to 3rd story on BBC1 6pm news.
Second day in a row it has moved right down the pecking order.0 -
"Jennifer Williams is the social affairs editor at the Manchester Evening News."anotherDave said:If the Tories lose this election, they may get a Darwin Award as compensation.
"..largely the Tories seem to have strategised regional media out of their grid. Even in areas they actually need to win, such as Bury North.
And with us they are strategising out the voters. Because I daresay most people in Bury North – or Bolton West or Hazel Grove – won’t switch on Newsnight to watch Osborne’s latest spiel about his long term economic plan.
More of them will listen to commercial radio or pick up the Manchester Evening News, or watch Granada while eating their tea. So as a strategy it seems pretty self-defeating."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/the-conservatives-are-strategising-regional-media-out-of-the-grid-and-it-wont-help-their-cause/
As you were...0 -
40% for Labour in Thurrock poll!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa0 -
Some green shoots though? Good to see Bell in at 4. His swashbuckling, devil-may-care style will soon have the run counter ticking over apace...Tissue_Price said:
Aaaand he's out third ball.0 -
Just to confuse things (and Stephen Fisher tomorrow), we could do with a 2% Con lead in tonightr's YouGov poll!bigjohnowls said:Jonathan said:Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch.
Yes they have. TNS ICM PanelBase have all moved Labours way!!Jonathan said:Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch.
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Drew Hendry interviewed on STV News - SNP membership in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey now over 2,500.0
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Decent first comment in that speccie link - from a Kipper...
"starfish • 3 hours ago
maybe if the media was actually to ask a penetrating question of use to the electorate it would be better
Instead of trying to trap politicians into 'gaffes', 'u-turns' or promoting twittersphere storms...."0 -
First of all we have so many cries of wolf we do not know when or if it's going to be true.peter_from_putney said:The Times today:
"Greece will go bust next week, potentially pushing the highly indebted country into default and out of the eurozone and plunging the European Union into an unprecedented crisis."
What impact is this likely to have on our GE?
Is it a possible Black Swan event?
Second, my reasonable guess is either May 8th-13th or when the ECB loans are up for payment in July.
A Greek default before May 7th is unlikely but I give it a 25% chance.
But if it happens, there will either be a rush of votes towards the Tories and UKIP on the basis of fiscal responsibility and anti-european sentiment, or a rush of votes to Labour on the basis of blaming austerity policies for failing to prevent a default.
I remember very well the impact that the Flash Crash and the first Greek Bailout of Death had on election day, so much that I had my suspicions that the Flash Crash was City orchestrated in order to move votes.0 -
I've voted in every GE since I've been old enough and, since then, I've always turned out for the Euros and the locals too (except when on holiday once in 2008).
But... at the moment I just don't even know if I'll turn out to vote this time or which candidate I'll vote for if I do. I suspect that, come the day, a sense of duty will march me to the polling station - but as for what I'll do when I get there I honestly haven't a clue.
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Looks like a focus group but cannot be sure as behind paywall?isam said:40% for Labour in Thurrock poll!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa
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Mr. Flashman (deceased), indeed, it's a very good point.0
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Will you be tossing a coin or rolling a dice ?Steven_Whaley said:I've voted in every GE since I've been old enough and, since then, I've always turned out for the Euros and the locals too (except when on holiday once in 2008).
But... at the moment I just don't even know if I'll turn out to vote this time or which candidate I'll vote for if I do. I suspect that, come the day, a sense of duty will march me to the polling station - but as for what I'll do when I get there I honestly haven't a clue.
I feel like I'm in the same position btw
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A nice focus group of 10 voters, 4 voting Labour, and 3 voting UKIP & CON each.isam said:40% for Labour in Thurrock poll!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa
A little useless as a predictor, other than it will be a close race between the 3, which we already know.0 -
With the March borrowing data we can now make some comparisons between what George Osborne predicted in his 2010 Budget and the actual outcome.
Predicted Borrowing
2010/11 £149bn
2011/12 £116bn
2012/13 £89bn
2013/14 £60bn
2014/15 £37bn
Actual Borrowing
2010/11 £135bn
2011/12 £113bn
2012/13 £120bn
2013/14 £98bn
2014/15 £87bn
An overshoot of £102bn
Now look at the comparison for each year:
2010/11 £14bn under
2011/12 £3bn under
2012/13 £31bn over
2013/14 £38bn over
2014/15 £50bn over
A worsening trend which a Labour supporter might blame on Osborne's deviation from Darling's policies ;-)
Now look at borrowing prediction for future years:
2015/16
2010 prediction £20bn
2015 prediction £75bn
Change is £55bn over
2016/17
No 2010 prediction made but a small surplus would have been the likely prediction
2015 prediction £39bn
2017/18
No 2010 prediction made but a small surplus would have been the likely prediction
2015 prediction £13bn
So the total overborrowing for the period 2010/11 to 2017/18 is likely to be around £200bn. That is assuming the economy continues to grow steadily - any severe shocks will likely see significantly higher borrowing.
Now we can have a discussion as to why this borrowing overshoot has happened / is happening and whether the policies of the government were the right ones.
But what is undeniable is that borrowing has been far more than was predicted.
Which is why the 'magic money tree' promises being currently made on all sides are so reprehensible.
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I thought a blindfold and a pin was the time-honoured method?Pulpstar said:
Will you be tossing a coin or rolling a dice ?Steven_Whaley said:I've voted in every GE since I've been old enough and, since then, I've always turned out for the Euros and the locals too (except when on holiday once in 2008).
But... at the moment I just don't even know if I'll turn out to vote this time or which candidate I'll vote for if I do. I suspect that, come the day, a sense of duty will march me to the polling station - but as for what I'll do when I get there I honestly haven't a clue.
I feel like I'm in the same position btw0 -
Funny I read it from a twitter link from Populous. I am not an FT subscriberMP_SE said:
Looks like a focus group but cannot be sure as behind paywall?isam said:40% for Labour in Thurrock poll!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa
I was kidding, there were 10 people in the focus group and they split 4/3/3 Lab/Con/Kip0 -
Jonathan
"Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch."
My theory is that the anti SNP rhetoric only appeals to a particular type of Tory. Certainly ones that would never vote Labour. I also think there's a chance it might be motivating left of centre voters who might quite like the idea of having a talented female like Nicola in their corner.
What's a "Big Boll?"
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Could draw a big SNP box I guessAnorak said:
I thought a blindfold and a pin was the time-honoured method?Pulpstar said:
Will you be tossing a coin or rolling a dice ?Steven_Whaley said:I've voted in every GE since I've been old enough and, since then, I've always turned out for the Euros and the locals too (except when on holiday once in 2008).
But... at the moment I just don't even know if I'll turn out to vote this time or which candidate I'll vote for if I do. I suspect that, come the day, a sense of duty will march me to the polling station - but as for what I'll do when I get there I honestly haven't a clue.
I feel like I'm in the same position btw
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Indeed, the media have only themselves to blame. Well, themselves and the electorate.TGOHF said:Decent first comment in that speccie link - from a Kipper...
"starfish • 3 hours ago
maybe if the media was actually to ask a penetrating question of use to the electorate it would be better
Instead of trying to trap politicians into 'gaffes', 'u-turns' or promoting twittersphere storms...."
We get the politics and politicians we deserve - everyone says they want characters and people with a hinterland, but then jumps all over any "gaffe", so we get SPAD politics.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/23/politicians-electorate-voters-election0 -
I presume parliament would be recalled and the vote cancelled if there was a major global conflict?Pulpstar said:
Named polling and tacticals will save Danny !Dair said:Drew Hendry interviewed on STV News - SNP membership in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey now over 2,500.
Danny can batter the phones to Moscow for the next 14 days. Will be more likely to result in him being an MP on May 8th than anything he does in his constituency.0 -
I guess that means the SNP have saved their deposit then.Dair said:Drew Hendry interviewed on STV News - SNP membership in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey now over 2,500.
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Meh. Misleading click bait on limited access sites should be a bannable offence.isam said:40% for Labour in Thurrock poll!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa0 -
Cheers.isam said:
Funny I read it from a twitter link from Populous. I am not an FT subscriberMP_SE said:
Looks like a focus group but cannot be sure as behind paywall?isam said:40% for Labour in Thurrock poll!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa
I was kidding, there were 10 people in the focus group and they split 4/3/3 Lab/Con/Kip
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Kiptard is presumably unacceptable on this site, given precedent. I suggest you withdraw.Dair said:
Meh, Kiptard. Misleading click bait on limited access sites should be a bannable offence.isam said:40% for Labour in Thurrock poll!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa0 -
My feeling is the rhetoric appeals to quite a few people, but not so much as to actually shift peoples' votes. Hence why the tactic had more lasting appeal, but hasn't made any discernible impact.Roger said:Jonathan
"Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch."
My theory is that the anti SNP rhetoric only appeals to a particular type of Tory. Certainly ones that would never vote Labour.
It's one of those things where we the great British public will agree with someone asking us if we don't like something, but won't actually vote in a way to see it is prevented/happens delete as appropriate.
Cameron may as well enjoy his last few weeks of high office. The one attack that seems to have broken through still hasn't changed things in his favour. What is left?0 -
It's strange ComRes didn't do a national poll last week.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.0 -
Rahman's election agent was a LBTH councillor and was also disqualified from holding public office so I should guess he represented Stepney.bondegezou said:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/judgment.pdf has the full judgement from the Luftur Rahman election court. New election for mayor + a local by-election in Stepney ward to be held. (I'm not clear why the by-election in Stepney ward...?)
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"furious with the election result"
Quite alot of people are going to be furious with it one way or another tbh.0 -
PP very big Labour in D&G (5/2).0
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All sorts of supplementaries and lots of themPulpstar said:
Nicola Sturgeon supplementaries ?MarkSenior said:
I did a large Yougov survey last week which was clearly not the daily one . Perhaps a large special poll for BES .Tabman said:0 -
HahaDair said:
Meh. Misleading click bait on limited access sites should be a bannable offence.isam said:40% for Labour in Thurrock poll!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa
7% for UKIP you reckon dont you???
But wont bet on it....
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People are bored with it.MikeL said:GE reduced to 3rd story on BBC1 6pm news.
Second day in a row it has moved right down the pecking order.
How long has the campaign being going on now - is this the fourth week or the fifth or the sixth ? Not to mention the months of build up before the campaign officially began.
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BBC1 report re IFS very unhelpful for Con.
It wasn't biased - it's just that it was framed entirely around how much each party will cut. There was no mention of tax at all.
Anyone watching would just have thought Con will cut most so don't vote Con.0 -
Survation is apparently 33 Con 29 Lab 18 UKIP0
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Almost misread that for LGBT.... almostrpjs said:
Rahman's election agent was a LBTH councillor and was also disqualified from holding public office so I should guess he represented Stepney.bondegezou said:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/judgment.pdf has the full judgement from the Luftur Rahman election court. New election for mayor + a local by-election in Stepney ward to be held. (I'm not clear why the by-election in Stepney ward...?)
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Out of 10 on group, 4 labour, 3 conservative, 3 ukip - also the SNP issue is featuring in the campaign - this election will depend on how many ukip go to conservative, impossible to tell and really makes the result too difficult to call, no matter what any opinion poll finds at present.Dair said:
Meh. Misleading click bait on limited access sites should be a bannable offence.isam said:40% for Labour in Thurrock poll!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa0 -
Paddy has paid out on 650 seat parliament btw.0
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Yet another bizarre Lid Dem advert presumably entitled "The Girl Who Couldn't Cross The Road" or "Why Is a Teenager Listening to Willie Rennie".0
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I think you might be right there Roger.Roger said:Jonathan
"Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch."
My theory is that the anti SNP rhetoric only appeals to a particular type of Tory. Certainly ones that would never vote Labour. I also think there's a chance it might be motivating left of centre voters who might quite like the idea of having a talented female like Nicola in their corner.
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Link might get you there: (click first result) http://tinyurl.com/nohw653isam said:40% for Labour in Thurrock poll!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46600eb0-e9ac-11e4-a687-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y9Y6RLQa0 -
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers · 29s 29 seconds ago
With a fortnight to go, sifting through the numbers for our latest from @ComResPolls. Interesting stuff as ever! 10pm on @MailOnline0 -
That sounds amazing if it is. What's it based on?isam said:Survation is apparently 33 Con 29 Lab 18 UKIP
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Why thank you, Tyson!tyson said:
The world needs people like you Sunil. I'd bet you'd lighten the mood of a funeral. The problem with politicians and many of our PB comrades too- they are either pompous or take themselves too seriously, and usually both. Not you.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing opinion polls. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I actually caught it! I just... DO things!tyson said:
I need polls, I need polls, I need polls. This site is full of polljunkies waiting for a next fix.MikeL said:Surely we are due a MORI?
Is ComRes not now doing national polls - given it did the South West last week and UKIP targets this week.
We need as many polls as possible from the traditional big names - ICM, MORI, ComRes.
Why though? The polls all seem to be saying the same thing, that the parties are more and less tied.
Your cheque is in the post 0 -
Re the polls
Is there more variation in the Conservative level than the Labour ?
Though if there is I don't know whether that is good or bad for them.
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Wishful thinking - the SNP holding England to ransom will upset lots of voters across all partiesanother_richard said:
I think you might be right there Roger.Roger said:Jonathan
"Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch."
My theory is that the anti SNP rhetoric only appeals to a particular type of Tory. Certainly ones that would never vote Labour. I also think there's a chance it might be motivating left of centre voters who might quite like the idea of having a talented female like Nicola in their corner.0 -
That's my hunch too.another_richard said:
I think you might be right there Roger.Roger said:Jonathan
"Polls are odd. Tories were having a supposedly strong week with their SNP line, anecdotes abound from the activists here, but the polls have not budged an inch."
My theory is that the anti SNP rhetoric only appeals to a particular type of Tory. Certainly ones that would never vote Labour. I also think there's a chance it might be motivating left of centre voters who might quite like the idea of having a talented female like Nicola in their corner.
Tory vote solidifying in the shires. Who knows, though!0
