politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A record-breaking 469,047 registered online to vote yesterday before the midnight deadline
On top of the online registrations a further 15,965 people registering by post. The total who signed themselves up was the equivalent of well over 750 people for each parliamentary constituency or roughly one percent of the electorate.
It is just possible that creating this deadline before the election has made everyone who registers on the day a 90%+ likely voter, which could be higher than the counterfactual if they were just kept on the register or some such.
Hmm...I was one of them. My family all got their polling cards but one did not arrive for me. I re-registered just in case although my wife assures me she was told on the phone I was on the register.
Are these definitely new registrations? Or are they just requests to register, some of which might be registered already? On the face of it half a million in a day looks ridiculous.
It is just possible that creating this deadline before the election has made everyone who registers on the day a 90%+ likely voter, which could be higher than the counterfactual if they were just kept on the register or some such.
IVR may work out OK for Labour...
Or thousands of non Labour voters energised by the prospect of the SNP holding Miliband's gonads in an unforgiving vice like grip.
It is just possible that creating this deadline before the election has made everyone who registers on the day a 90%+ likely voter, which could be higher than the counterfactual if they were just kept on the register or some such.
IVR may work out OK for Labour...
Or thousands of non Labour voters energised by the prospect of the SNP holding Miliband's gonads in an unforgiving vice like grip.
If there are 7m potentially eligible voters who are still not on the register what effect might that have on the polls? I haven't seen an up to date figure but would guess that there are roughly 50m voters in the UK so it could amount to 3.5% or so.
Of course the vast majority of those who opted not to register would not have bothered to vote anyway so the effect on the actual result will be much, much smaller but in terms of current voting preference as expressed to pollsters it might make a significant difference given the closeness of the polls.
The men in the Tory politburo don't have to worry about the ebb and flow of public opinion. They put Trident before butter, while we put just about everything before Trident. They know that they are a super power in only one sense—the military sense. They are a failure in human and economic terms.
Half a million registered, but I saw it reported yesterday (in the telegraph, I think) that around 7 million were still unregistered - so still quite a gaping hole. Of course, whether the other 6.5 million genuinely exist and intended to vote if they did is another matter. On another matter, is this scale of registration on one day plausible?
Big registration numbers because of the Electoral Commission's advertising, or has one of the parties conducted a registration drive? If so, probably this is good for that party, which might easily have been the Conservatives or SNP, as they seem the most clued-up social media-wise.
To know if this is good or bad we surely need to know the counter-factual of how many would have registered to vote via other means than leave it to the last day.
Making it easier to register to vote online is a good thing. I moved 5 years ago and the procedure then was a real pain in the backside.
Are we going to get an absolute number registered from the ONS or Electoral Commission, and do we have a comparative number from 2010?
There also seems to be a little confusion in Scotland where we know turnout was 90% in September - is everyone that registered for the referendum automatically registered for the GE or did they need to re-register? This is really important both for turnout bets and any boundary reform next term.
Are these definitely new registrations? Or are they just requests to register, some of which might be registered already? On the face of it half a million in a day looks ridiculous.
I think, as Mike alludes to, many of them *are* already registered but were uncertain about that or making sure. I, as someone who follows these things closely, got confused and went through the system a while back even though I was already on the register.
Leaving aside this late rush, if fewer people are on the register than in previous years, then that will increase the turnout. The sort of people who didn't vote in 2010 are more likely to become the sort of people who aren't even registered this year, so you could have exactly the same number of people voting, but an apparent increase in turnout because registrations are lower.
"People from my sort of background needed Grammar schools to compete with children from privileged homes like Shirley Williams and Anthony Wedgwood Benn" - MHT, 1977.
I don't think it's good news at all for Labour, Half a million people is just the tip of the iceberg. There must be many more who either don't know or never bothered. I think you are right though about the polls this year being very unreliable because they are asking people a question which in some cases doesn't apply to them.
Must admit the high number does sound a bit odd – I wonder how much was due to panic by existing signees who may not have received their polling cards yet, rather than signing on for the first time.
Are we going to get an absolute number registered from the ONS or Electoral Commission, and do we have a comparative number from 2010?
There also seems to be a little confusion in Scotland where we know turnout was 90% in September - is everyone that registered for the referendum automatically registered for the GE or did they need to re-register? This is really important both for turnout bets and any boundary reform next term.
Everyone aged 16 to 17 who was on the register for the referendum should obviously not be on the register for this election. Actually, it makes you wonder whether some 16 and 17 year-olds might accidentally be left on the register and be able to vote against the rules.
Are we going to get an absolute number registered from the ONS or Electoral Commission, and do we have a comparative number from 2010?
There also seems to be a little confusion in Scotland where we know turnout was 90% in September - is everyone that registered for the referendum automatically registered for the GE or did they need to re-register? This is really important both for turnout bets and any boundary reform next term.
I imagine they're automatically registered. I've never re-registered for local or European elections.
Maybe because of the enormous amount of publicity, especially over social media, on the last day. As to who they are, they're mostly normal people who don't think about politics that much, I imagine. The change to the household registration has also probably made an impact.
Also I dare say there are a fair number of people like me who have just recently moved house. To which, I'm not 100% sure that I have been registered. Stockport council say I have, but not in a way that makes me feel confident - and no polling card received yet.
Are we going to get an absolute number registered from the ONS or Electoral Commission, and do we have a comparative number from 2010?
There also seems to be a little confusion in Scotland where we know turnout was 90% in September - is everyone that registered for the referendum automatically registered for the GE or did they need to re-register? This is really important both for turnout bets and any boundary reform next term.
Everyone who registered in the Indyref is registered. I've heard rumours of people taking themselves off the register due to poll tax arrears and so forth, but quite honestly I think that is unionist party fantasy land. Doubt many people will take themselves off the register, more likely just stay in bed.
Are we going to get an absolute number registered from the ONS or Electoral Commission, and do we have a comparative number from 2010?
There also seems to be a little confusion in Scotland where we know turnout was 90% in September - is everyone that registered for the referendum automatically registered for the GE or did they need to re-register? This is really important both for turnout bets and any boundary reform next term.
Everyone aged 16 to 17 who was on the register for the referendum should obviously not be on the register for this election. Actually, it makes you wonder whether some 16 and 17 year-olds might accidentally be left on the register and be able to vote against the rules.
No, my daughter (whose 18th birthday is next week, how's that for forward planning) was on the register but she still had to provide proof of identity to establish that she was eligible to vote on the relevant date.
Her first vote was the referendum. I seriously doubt any vote she makes from here on is going to be anything other than an anti-climax. After all, we were assured that it was a once in a generation thing.
I hope to do three ELBOWs for the coming Sunday, back-dating to August. One is the normal standard "official" ELBOW, aggregating all the polls for a given week; then a YouGov-only one; and then a non-YouGov-only one.
That last point in the OP is a killer though. Obviously it's 'anecdotal' but the sort of people I know/grew up with who are likely to vote UKIP are precisely those people who would forget/not bother to register.
Are we going to get an absolute number registered from the ONS or Electoral Commission, and do we have a comparative number from 2010?
There also seems to be a little confusion in Scotland where we know turnout was 90% in September - is everyone that registered for the referendum automatically registered for the GE or did they need to re-register? This is really important both for turnout bets and any boundary reform next term.
Everyone aged 16 to 17 who was on the register for the referendum should obviously not be on the register for this election. Actually, it makes you wonder whether some 16 and 17 year-olds might accidentally be left on the register and be able to vote against the rules.
All ?! Some 17 year olds should certainly be on the register, namely those who are 18 on or before May 7th.
16 yr olds of course shouldn't be allowed to vote in this election.
Are these definitely new registrations? Or are they just requests to register, some of which might be registered already? On the face of it half a million in a day looks ridiculous.
Not sure if it's ridiculous at all - I was fully aware that I needed to register, just never quite did it until the deadline came. Human nature, init
I agree that a chunk of that figure will already registered, and just re-registering *to be sure* - the kind of perpetually anxious person who turns the cooker off at the wall before popping out of the house.
Are we going to get an absolute number registered from the ONS or Electoral Commission, and do we have a comparative number from 2010?
There also seems to be a little confusion in Scotland where we know turnout was 90% in September - is everyone that registered for the referendum automatically registered for the GE or did they need to re-register? This is really important both for turnout bets and any boundary reform next term.
Everyone aged 16 to 17 who was on the register for the referendum should obviously not be on the register for this election. Actually, it makes you wonder whether some 16 and 17 year-olds might accidentally be left on the register and be able to vote against the rules.
No, my daughter (whose 18th birthday is next week, how's that for forward planning) was on the register but she still had to provide proof of identity to establish that she was eligible to vote on the relevant date.
Her first vote was the referendum. I seriously doubt any vote she makes from here on is going to be anything other than an anti-climax. After all, we were assured that it was a once in a generation thing.
Quite so. She was a child during the first referendum, and will be an adult during the next one.
I've put in all the Ashcroft contituency polls and, for those constituencies, used Ashcroft rather than my mathematical calculations. The Ashcroft polls are likely to pick up local effects whereas my method doesn't.
The result is:
Con 268 Lab 274 LD 28 SNP 57 PC 3 Grn 1 UKIP 2
UKIP seems to harm Lab more than Con in some critical seats.
NB Clegg loses Sheffield Hallam and Farage doesn't win Thanet S according to Ashcroft.
I suspect a % will be those who thought they were registered but hadn't had polling cards by then. I got an email from CCHQ asking me if I was certain to vote - I checked my polling card had arrived before clicking Yes.
Must admit the high number does sound a bit odd – I wonder how much was due to panic by existing signees who may not have received their polling cards yet, rather than signing on for the first time.
Lib dems and Labour were pressing very hard for voter registrations on social media the past few days. I'd say they were definitely far more aggressive than Conservatives in their registration push. I was seeing messages every 15 mins at times while the conservatives messages were more sharply focused on highlighting dangers of potential Lab+SNP arrangement.
The postal ballot system Labour devised which a judge said would disgrace a banana republic. Can't imagine why these tireless campaigners for social justice and all that is good and pure about this world introduced it.
Wonder what will happen in Blackburn with the % of postal votes.
Surely Labour must worry about their vote being hit both in numbers as well as efficiency.
If you fancy OGH tip on 70%+ turnout you can get 7/2 on Betfair (~4.5 last time I checked, which was yesterday tbf) on the 70-75% turnout band. Turnout only needs to be 70.1% for it to pay out.
Is it? We were told all the late registrations in Scotland were good news for Yes. They weren't.
Why would that be so clear-cut.given the referendum turned out to be closer than initially seemed,more than likely pro-union voters scared into registering for
If all these people are not registered doesn't that mean the turnout will be a lot higher this year? Because everyone who wants to vote is on the register?
Lib dems and Labour were pressing very hard for voter registrations on social media the past few days. I'd say they were definitely far more aggressive than Conservatives in their registration push. I was seeing messages every 15 mins at times while the conservatives messages were more sharply focused on highlighting dangers of potential Lab+SNP arrangement.
Labour are aware that people who don't exist can't vote?
Registration and the voting process should be as complex as possible, keeps the daft and feckless from having an undeserved say. Better yet introduce a literacy test.
I've received good news for the Blues from an impartial source...
"Sir, the Tories have a £15 million advantage over us coming into this election — money they have been pouring into the seats that will decide the result."
Tories seem confident on PBer's Scottish Books too:
With Labour facing wipeout in Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon is already planning how she'll "change the direction" of a weak Miliband government. That would mean chaos for Britain, and we'd all pay for it - SHARE this to get the word out.
I've put in all the Ashcroft contituency polls and, for those constituencies, used Ashcroft rather than my mathematical calculations. The Ashcroft polls are likely to pick up local effects whereas my method doesn't.
The result is:
Con 268 Lab 274 LD 28 SNP 57 PC 3 Grn 1 UKIP 2
UKIP seems to harm Lab more than Con in some critical seats.
NB Clegg loses Sheffield Hallam and Farage doesn't win Thanet S according to Ashcroft.
Out of I interest are the two non SNP seats Orkney and Shetland and Dumfries and GallowAy?
If all these people are not registered doesn't that mean the turnout will be a lot higher this year? Because everyone who wants to vote is on the register?
I think it is more that the registers have been cleaned up with lots of people who were either no longer in the UK or had multiple registrations as they moved around disappearing. I really wonder how many of the alleged 7m represent real voters who are still eligible and not on the register in the right place.
But yes, I think OGH's bet on turnout being higher as a result is quite attractive although 70.1% is quite a target.
Anyone want to give odds on whether there'll be a registration cock up/someone turning up to the poll who "didn't realise they had to register" ?
I know we shouldn't joke about odds but I'll give you 1/10,000 that SOMEONE turns up at a poling station and is turned away because they are not registered!!
Labour’s increasing reliance on the unions for finance in the run-up to the general election has been highlighted by new donation data published on Thursday.
The figures show that Unite has given £1m, Unison has donated close to £500,000 and the Communication Workers Union has provided £50,000, out of a total £1.9m.
The money was declared to the Electoral Commission in the first of weekly updates during the month-long “short campaign”.
Labour received by far the most cash for the period in question. The Conservative party revealed £501,850 from 16 private donors while the Liberal Democrats announced just £20,000 and the UK Independence party £35,000.
I've received good news for the Blues from an impartial source...
"Sir, the Tories have a £15 million advantage over us coming into this election — money they have been pouring into the seats that will decide the result."
Tories seem confident on PBer's Scottish Books too:
With Labour facing wipeout in Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon is already planning how she'll "change the direction" of a weak Miliband government. That would mean chaos for Britain, and we'd all pay for it - SHARE this to get the word out.
Anyone want to give odds on whether there'll be a registration cock up/someone turning up to the poll who "didn't realise they had to register" ?
I know we shouldn't joke about odds but I'll give you 1/10,000 that SOMEONE turns up at a poling station and is turned away because they are not registered!!
Anyone want to give odds on whether there'll be a registration cock up/someone turning up to the poll who "didn't realise they had to register" ?
It will happen and the BBC will get very angry as they did in 2010.
I remember the lady who oversaw the election last time though - she was USELESS.
You are far, far too generous in your recollection. Her Quango really should have been the first on the list on the basis that they did not actually achieve anything.
The postal ballot system Labour devised which a judge said would disgrace a banana republic. Can't imagine why these tireless campaigners for social justice and all that is good and pure about this world introduced it.
Wonder what will happen in Blackburn with the % of postal votes.
Surely Labour must worry about their vote being hit both in numbers as well as efficiency.
The highest postal voting in London is in Bromley, that hot bed of revolutionary activity.
Anyone want to give odds on whether there'll be a registration cock up/someone turning up to the poll who "didn't realise they had to register" ?
I know we shouldn't joke about odds but I'll give you 1/10,000 that SOMEONE turns up at a poling station and is turned away because they are not registered!!
I'll have a Trillion pounds please
Agreed, subject to the trillion pounds being deposited in escrow before election day.
Comments
IVR may work out OK for Labour...
Of course the vast majority of those who opted not to register would not have bothered to vote anyway so the effect on the actual result will be much, much smaller but in terms of current voting preference as expressed to pollsters it might make a significant difference given the closeness of the polls.
Of course, whether the other 6.5 million genuinely exist and intended to vote if they did is another matter.
On another matter, is this scale of registration on one day plausible?
Making it easier to register to vote online is a good thing. I moved 5 years ago and the procedure then was a real pain in the backside.
There also seems to be a little confusion in Scotland where we know turnout was 90% in September - is everyone that registered for the referendum automatically registered for the GE or did they need to re-register? This is really important both for turnout bets and any boundary reform next term.
@JamieRoss7: Coburn tells me he thinks he'll get "a very decent majority" in the election. "I can't wait to see the look on Nicola Sturgeon's face."
Leaving aside this late rush, if fewer people are on the register than in previous years, then that will increase the turnout. The sort of people who didn't vote in 2010 are more likely to become the sort of people who aren't even registered this year, so you could have exactly the same number of people voting, but an apparent increase in turnout because registrations are lower.
It would be interesting to see the effect (if it is visible above the noise).
I feel Labour is disadvantaged by the new registration laws, and the registrations yesterday helps redress the balance to some extent.
Must admit the high number does sound a bit odd – I wonder how much was due to panic by existing signees who may not have received their polling cards yet, rather than signing on for the first time.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Council-accused-mixing-Muslim-names-election/story-26362452-detail/story.html
Looks as if they are worried that the registers are not accurate.
Also I dare say there are a fair number of people like me who have just recently moved house. To which, I'm not 100% sure that I have been registered. Stockport council say I have, but not in a way that makes me feel confident - and no polling card received yet.
"In three hours of traipsing around doorsteps of South Thanet, before ending up in the pub, there were no negative reactions to Farage. "
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/the-battle-for-south-thanet-can-nigel-farage-win/
Her first vote was the referendum. I seriously doubt any vote she makes from here on is going to be anything other than an anti-climax. After all, we were assured that it was a once in a generation thing.
I suspect vast majority will, but not all.
16 yr olds of course shouldn't be allowed to vote in this election.
Maria Eagle: Wirral West
Rachel Reeves: Elmet & Rothwell
Twigg: Hove
Watson: Lancaster & Fleetwood
Dugher: Bristol West
I agree that a chunk of that figure will already registered, and just re-registering *to be sure* - the kind of perpetually anxious person who turns the cooker off at the wall before popping out of the house.
Turn up at the polling station, and see if they let you vote.
I've put in all the Ashcroft contituency polls and, for those constituencies, used Ashcroft rather than my mathematical calculations. The Ashcroft polls are likely to pick up local effects whereas my method doesn't.
The result is:
Con 268
Lab 274
LD 28
SNP 57
PC 3
Grn 1
UKIP 2
UKIP seems to harm Lab more than Con in some critical seats.
NB Clegg loses Sheffield Hallam and Farage doesn't win Thanet S according to Ashcroft.
He'll get more publicity, and every time he opens his gob, it pushes people away from UKIP.
Meaningless large number..
Root/Ali/Jordan/Stokes - 4 non specialist bowlers - after a test match where we failed to bowl them out.
Wonder what will happen in Blackburn with the % of postal votes.
Surely Labour must worry about their vote being hit both in numbers as well as efficiency.
If you fancy OGH tip on 70%+ turnout you can get 7/2 on Betfair (~4.5 last time I checked, which was yesterday tbf) on the 70-75% turnout band. Turnout only needs to be 70.1% for it to pay out.
DYOR.
Says it all, someone who wasn't selected by Kent last year is in our test team.
Registration and the voting process should be as complex as possible, keeps the daft and feckless from having an undeserved say. Better yet introduce a literacy test.
"Sir, the Tories have a £15 million advantage over us coming into this election — money they have been pouring into the seats that will decide the result."
Tories seem confident on PBer's Scottish Books too:
With Labour facing wipeout in Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon is already planning how she'll "change the direction" of a weak Miliband government. That would mean chaos for Britain, and we'd all pay for it - SHARE this to get the word out.
But yes, I think OGH's bet on turnout being higher as a result is quite attractive although 70.1% is quite a target.
Also had my longest ever queue to vote last GE... and yet turnout was 59.6% in Sheffield Central ?! Work that one out...
*dons flame-proof suit*