Good poll for UKIP as weighted considering how people voted in the 2010 election and excludes those who prefer not to say. In the Midlands UKIP vote share is only 7% less than Labour!
In absolute terms of voters lost, the biggest drops
Cardiff Central -11.536 Liverpool, Riverside -11.338 Newcastle upon Tyne East -9.388 Nottingham South -8.903 Loughborough -8.490 City of Durham -8.422 York Central -8.251 Oxford East -8.080 Leicester South -7.824 Reading East -7.605 Brighton, Pavilion -7.503 Coventry South -7.029 Ceredigion -6.735 Salford and Eccles -6.339 Hornsey and Wood Green -6.304 Tottenham -5.712 Holborn and St Pancras -5.700 Blackpool South -5.645 Crewe and Nantwich -5.556 Manchester, Central -5.528
Gains
Edinburgh North and Leith 4482 East Devon 3.363 Wellingborough 3.092 Tonbridge and Malling 2.472 Wantage 2.145 Edinburgh South 2111 Glasgow South 2052 Northampton South 1.935 Ashfield 1.858 Glasgow East 1803 North Cornwall 1.746 Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 1.742 Hendon 1.715 Shrewsbury and Atcham 1.712 Edinburgh West 1665 Mansfield 1.610 Ludlow 1.575 Taunton Deane 1.516 Glasgow South West 1500 Foyle 1.457
This needs a thread of its own. Nicky Morgan must be safe in Loughborough now. But teabreak over...
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
I wonder what will happen to the SNP if they don't end up in coalition or in some sort of arrangement with Labour. Some of their younger MPs might get fed up sitting on the opposition benches doing nothing very much, except rubbing shoulders with Labour MPs who detest them. We could have a few by-elections after a couple of years.
You are joking , only ones that ever leave Westminster are either dying , caught at it , or senile. Once they get at the trough they cannot be dragged away ,, sure the SNP will be no different. Especially if young , free subsidised booze and food , easy hours , only need to run up and vote when the bell rings and pots and pots of free money with 5 years salary straight into your bank account minimum.
Hey, Mr. G., glad you are still around. Following your post on the last thread I read up on Full Fiscal Responsibility. It is it would seem the same as Full Fiscal Autonomy but with a cuddlier name. Most importantly it still falls over on fiscal transfers and debt. Independence is still the way to go, accept no substitutes.
Edinburgh North and Leith 4482 East Devon 3.363 Wellingborough 3.092 Tonbridge and Malling 2.472 Wantage 2.145 Edinburgh South 2111 Glasgow South 2052 Northampton South 1.935 Ashfield 1.858 Glasgow East 1803 North Cornwall 1.746 Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 1.742 Hendon 1.715 Shrewsbury and Atcham 1.712 Edinburgh West 1665 Mansfield 1.610 Ludlow 1.575 Taunton Deane 1.516 Glasgow South West 1500 Foyle 1.457
Suzanne Evans is the UKIP candidate for Shrewsbury and Atcham.
I thought it was a no-hoper, but she is a great candidate.
I wonder what will happen to the SNP if they don't end up in coalition or in some sort of arrangement with Labour. Some of their younger MPs might get fed up sitting on the opposition benches doing nothing very much, except rubbing shoulders with Labour MPs who detest them. We could have a few by-elections after a couple of years.
You are joking , only ones that ever leave Westminster are either dying , caught at it , or senile. Once they get at the trough they cannot be dragged away ,, sure the SNP will be no different. Especially if young , free subsidised booze and food , easy hours , only need to run up and vote when the bell rings and pots and pots of free money with 5 years salary straight into your bank account minimum.
Hey, Mr. G., glad you are still around. Following your post on the last thread I read up on Full Fiscal Responsibility. It is it would seem the same as Full Fiscal Autonomy but with a cuddlier name. Most importantly it still falls over on fiscal transfers and debt. Independence is still the way to go, accept no substitutes.
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
April showers? Seems more like summer. Of course one month's data, one set of floods or droughts doesn't actually prove anything, they're just indications. It's always puzzled me how intelligent people seem to think that their opinions on AGW really amount to much. The scientific evidence is convincing and is being refined all the time, scientists try to get ever closer to the facts in this field as in any other. You may be right about the majority opinion on PB, luckily they're not running the country. To those who deny (sorry are sceptical about) AGW, just swap to LED bulbs because they'll save you 80% of your electricity bill. This in turn is 20% of your energy bill, which averages around £1,200/yr, so you'd save £240/year, every year. Don't do it for the planet, do it for your pocket.
Trouble is you - as an uninformed and scientifically illiterate observer - are in no position to make any comment of judgement on the matter. And yet for some reason you seem to think yourself qualified to do so. Not the behaviour of an intelligent person really is it?
Tebbit has not had much good to say about Cameron for many years IIRC. I take his point about Labour and the lesser of two evils, but going after the SNP so vociferously does not quite constitute irritating the Scots for no good reason I think.
Short term it seems like the best chance yet the Tories have had to shift some votes in England, but there's no question it will cause difficulties after the election. But those were coming anyway, so worth the risk I suppose was the judgement.
I wonder what will happen to the SNP if they don't end up in coalition or in some sort of arrangement with Labour. Some of their younger MPs might get fed up sitting on the opposition benches doing nothing very much, except rubbing shoulders with Labour MPs who detest them. We could have a few by-elections after a couple of years.
I doubt it will prove a problem. Plenty of work to be done in the constituency to shore up that newly won SNP vote, and surely almost all could stick out even a bored first term, how awful would it have to be to just quit so early without intense personal reasons? Not to mention the prospect of another referendum within 5 years possibly.
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
What I find puzzling now is the prime minister’s position that the SNP is far worse than Labour because, if so, as there are not many seats in Scotland where the Conservative Party has a chance to win, the logic would seem to be that Conservatives should vote tactically for Labour as the lesser of two evils.
I think it’s a huge scare tactic against Labour and whether the particular seat in the House of Commons is occupied by a Labour member or an SNP member perhaps it’s not a great difference. Tebbit accused Cameron of “irritating” the Scots for no good reason.
Having bungled the Scottish referendum it seems pointless to just irritate Scots by shouting at them from Westminster - the English are irritated into voting for Ukip, by being shouted at from Westminster - and the Scots are irritated similarly.
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
Do you know what Flightpath. If you and I met in a pub we would probably get on like a house on fire. So apologies in retrospect and in advance for past and future insults - of which I am sure there will be many. They are the prattlings of a web bore and do not in any way reflect the way I would talk to people in real life.
Just answered a YouGov Poll on voting intention (I've already voted).
The survey also had questions on Cameron's successor so look out for that.
Barnesian has already voted?
Are postal votes already available ?
My postal vote arrived on Saturday. Posted it back yesterday. Can't change my mind now!
I posted my ballot paper today. One vote for Labour [ important in 2020 ]. I think Davey will lose to the Tories.
I think he'll be 5,000 votes behind.
I would like Davey to just win [ but not enough to actually vote for him ]. If he loses, then I would like a big margin like your 5000.
The last Lord A poll, albeit back in November, had Davey +8.
Nothing I'm hearing from team yellow or blue suggest he'll lose, let alone by 5,000.
It also had the Tories +11. Might be close.
The thing I don't understand is how 18% of the Conservative vote heads over to the Lib Dems when asked "in your constituency" when it is a straight Blue-Yellow fight.
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
Agree with the fact that there is a slight disconnect between satellite data and observed data. However, we're just discussing the small-print here - the trend for global temperatures is inexorably up. Global Warming is happening here and now.
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
Do you know what Flightpath. If you and I met in a pub we would probably get on like a house on fire. So apologies in retrospect and in advance for past and future insults - of which I am sure there will be many. They are the prattlings of a web bore and do not in any way reflect the way I would talk to people in real life.
Slightly oddly it is a3 folded into 4... The front page is a big photo of 'ANGELA WATKINSON for Hornchurch & Upminster'
The back page 'ANGELA WATKINSON YOUR NEXT MP'
I say odd as it doesn't mention the Conservative party and also because she already is my MP
It opens up to A3 size and we have a lot of text about what Angela will do...and much is made of the EU referendum
Who should govern our country - BRUSSELS OR BRITAIN? Who should control our immigration - BRUSSELS OR BRITAIN?
Conservative brand mentioned two or three times and small logo in corner
Leads me to believe the Tories think Ukip are capable of taking the seat.. We've had a couple of surveys last year from 'angela' asking who we would vote for...
8/1 - 10/1 Ukip I think... Looking more likely than I had hoped for given the boards up etc
It was on my second tier of Ukip possibles for people who are interested... Ukip+BNP 2010 was 11.7%
Surprised in some respects - it's is like the Tories saying they'll splash money on the NHS - no one believes them and it draws people's attention to the party that 'wins' on the topic.
What I find puzzling now is the prime minister’s position that the SNP is far worse than Labour because, if so, as there are not many seats in Scotland where the Conservative Party has a chance to win, the logic would seem to be that Conservatives should vote tactically for Labour as the lesser of two evils.
I think it’s a huge scare tactic against Labour and whether the particular seat in the House of Commons is occupied by a Labour member or an SNP member perhaps it’s not a great difference. Tebbit accused Cameron of “irritating” the Scots for no good reason.
Having bungled the Scottish referendum it seems pointless to just irritate Scots by shouting at them from Westminster - the English are irritated into voting for Ukip, by being shouted at from Westminster - and the Scots are irritated similarly.
---
Tebbit gets it ! Cameron doesn't.
Cameron gets it.
From the Graun:
"No matter that the SNP’s policies, as revealed on Monday, are copies of Labour’s, so with the sole exception of Trident they hardly drag the already leftwing Miliband any further left."
The whole discussion, regardless of Forsyth, Tebbit, Major, is reminding the electorate how left wing Ed actually is (or rather, is reinforcing a perception that he is left wing).
What I find puzzling now is the prime minister’s position that the SNP is far worse than Labour because, if so, as there are not many seats in Scotland where the Conservative Party has a chance to win, the logic would seem to be that Conservatives should vote tactically for Labour as the lesser of two evils.
I think it’s a huge scare tactic against Labour and whether the particular seat in the House of Commons is occupied by a Labour member or an SNP member perhaps it’s not a great difference. Tebbit accused Cameron of “irritating” the Scots for no good reason.
Having bungled the Scottish referendum it seems pointless to just irritate Scots by shouting at them from Westminster - the English are irritated into voting for Ukip, by being shouted at from Westminster - and the Scots are irritated similarly.
---
Tebbit gets it ! Cameron doesn't.
Cameron gets it.
From the Graun:
"No matter that the SNP’s policies, as revealed on Monday, are copies of Labour’s, so with the sole exception of Trident they hardly drag the already leftwing Miliband any further left."
The whole discussion, regardless of Forsyth, Tebbit, Major, is reminding the electorate how left wing Ed actually is (or rather, is reinforcing a perception that he is left wing).
That is where the damage is being done.
But there are many who want him to be more left wing, since he has been less obviously so lately. They like the idea of the SNP forcing his hand in that direction. So while it will cost him some votes, I think it gains him some too, from people who were hesitant but think he'll be more left wing that they had thought. It comes down to how much of each occurs, and where.
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
Agree with the fact that there is a slight disconnect between satellite data and observed data. However, we're just discussing the small-print here - the trend for global temperatures is inexorably up. Global Warming is happening here and now.
The trouble is twofold. Firstly that the trend is not up over the last 15 or so years and secondly that the models predict that the increases in CO2 should be producing much much larger increases in temperature than we are observing.
Has the world warmed up over the last 50 years? Absolutely. Does that warming overall match the models? No. And that is even after the models have been revised to produce less predicted warming.
There is a fundamental disconnect between the models and the observations. At which point any good scientist should go back and revisit the basic assumptions behind the modelling.
Just answered a YouGov Poll on voting intention (I've already voted).
The survey also had questions on Cameron's successor so look out for that.
Barnesian has already voted?
Are postal votes already available ?
My postal vote arrived on Saturday. Posted it back yesterday. Can't change my mind now!
I posted my ballot paper today. One vote for Labour [ important in 2020 ]. I think Davey will lose to the Tories.
I think he'll be 5,000 votes behind.
I would like Davey to just win [ but not enough to actually vote for him ]. If he loses, then I would like a big margin like your 5000.
The last Lord A poll, albeit back in November, had Davey +8.
Nothing I'm hearing from team yellow or blue suggest he'll lose, let alone by 5,000.
It also had the Tories +11. Might be close.
The thing I don't understand is how 18% of the Conservative vote heads over to the Lib Dems when asked "in your constituency" when it is a straight Blue-Yellow fight.
It must just help them to remember that they have lovely cuddly Ed as their MP.
Of course, at that point the Tory challenger probably had a much lower profile than they do today.
Just answered a YouGov Poll on voting intention (I've already voted).
The survey also had questions on Cameron's successor so look out for that.
Barnesian has already voted?
Are postal votes already available ?
My postal vote arrived on Saturday. Posted it back yesterday. Can't change my mind now!
I posted my ballot paper today. One vote for Labour [ important in 2020 ]. I think Davey will lose to the Tories.
I think he'll be 5,000 votes behind.
I would like Davey to just win [ but not enough to actually vote for him ]. If he loses, then I would like a big margin like your 5000.
The last Lord A poll, albeit back in November, had Davey +8.
Nothing I'm hearing from team yellow or blue suggest he'll lose, let alone by 5,000.
It also had the Tories +11. Might be close.
The thing I don't understand is how 18% of the Conservative vote heads over to the Lib Dems when asked "in your constituency" when it is a straight Blue-Yellow fight.
Local Tory more right wing than the party as a whole, and they'd prefer a LD moderating influence to bolder Cameron's wing of the party than someone on the hard right? Purely a guess.
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
Do you know what Flightpath. If you and I met in a pub we would probably get on like a house on fire. So apologies in retrospect and in advance for past and future insults - of which I am sure there will be many. They are the prattlings of a web bore and do not in any way reflect the way I would talk to people in real life.
In absolute terms of voters lost, the biggest drops
Cardiff Central -11.536 Liverpool, Riverside -11.338 Newcastle upon Tyne East -9.388 Nottingham South -8.903 Loughborough -8.490 City of Durham -8.422 York Central -8.251 Oxford East -8.080 Leicester South -7.824 Reading East -7.605 Brighton, Pavilion -7.503 Coventry South -7.029 Ceredigion -6.735 Salford and Eccles -6.339 Hornsey and Wood Green -6.304 Tottenham -5.712 Holborn and St Pancras -5.700 Blackpool South -5.645 Crewe and Nantwich -5.556 Manchester, Central -5.528
Gains
Edinburgh North and Leith 4482 East Devon 3.363 Wellingborough 3.092 Tonbridge and Malling 2.472 Wantage 2.145 Edinburgh South 2111 Glasgow South 2052 Northampton South 1.935 Ashfield 1.858 Glasgow East 1803 North Cornwall 1.746 Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 1.742 Hendon 1.715 Shrewsbury and Atcham 1.712 Edinburgh West 1665 Mansfield 1.610 Ludlow 1.575 Taunton Deane 1.516 Glasgow South West 1500 Foyle 1.457
This needs a thread of its own. Nicky Morgan must be safe in Loughborough now. But teabreak over...
Wow, those Cardiff Central figures are a bit stand out. There's a lot of students here and obviously they're no longer voting here. That's about 18% of the whole electorate just vanished. Not sure how it will play out. I suppose those students that did vote probably broke well for the Lib Dems last time and clearly are not there in such numbers to decamp to the Labour candidate, which is probably good for the Lib Dems round here if they can squeeze the still fairly substantial Tory vote.
I'd expect Labour to still get this fairly comfortably but maybe a thousand or a bit more less than might've been the case.
The boundary commission may well come round with a blue pencil and an OS map after that kind of decline given the electorate was only about 64K in 2010 anyway.
In some seats with a big drop, the fall could potentially hit LDs as much as Labour with the other parties not competitive, therefore being neutral. Same Brighton Pavillion. Some other seats are too safe anyway.
Nottingham South, Loughborough, York Central, Coventry South, Blackpool South and Crewe is where it can have a partisan impact.
Labour had strong local results in Nottingham (South included) recently. I guess those who bother to vote in the locals are likely to remember to register individually. York Central is actually safish on paper but Labour run local council doesn't have a good reputation.
I hate Nottingham the denizens keep voting Labour every election year in year out
The people are such b@stards.
As a Derby lad I agree fully.
Ah, another Derby lad. ;-)
I was born within a stone's throw of the Trent and Mersey at Stenson, before Stenson Fields came along, that is. ;-)
We must keep telling these Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire and Staffordshire people that they were born in the wrong place. I would add Yorkshiremen, but you can never tell one of them anything!
Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."
Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.
But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???
Why not?
Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.
Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.
Simple. Because floating voters and Lab <> Con switchers in northern working class communities (and I'm from one) tend to be a bit more leftwards leaning than many of their counterparts in the SE, and are probably quite sympathetic to some of the utterances of Sturgeon. They also regard London politicians as distant and out of touch more than our Kent cousins do, so that is something else we have in common with Scots and the SNP.
My consistent point, that the Tory Command just don't get, is that many of the voters they NEED to vote Tory are actually listening to Sturgeon and the general debate about the SNP holding Miliband to ransom and thinking "I quite like that actually", regardless of their views (way down the list of importance) on the West Lothian Question or similar.
Just answered a YouGov Poll on voting intention (I've already voted).
The survey also had questions on Cameron's successor so look out for that.
Barnesian has already voted?
Are postal votes already available ?
My postal vote arrived on Saturday. Posted it back yesterday. Can't change my mind now!
I posted my ballot paper today. One vote for Labour [ important in 2020 ]. I think Davey will lose to the Tories.
I think he'll be 5,000 votes behind.
I would like Davey to just win [ but not enough to actually vote for him ]. If he loses, then I would like a big margin like your 5000.
The last Lord A poll, albeit back in November, had Davey +8.
Nothing I'm hearing from team yellow or blue suggest he'll lose, let alone by 5,000.
It also had the Tories +11. Might be close.
The thing I don't understand is how 18% of the Conservative vote heads over to the Lib Dems when asked "in your constituency" when it is a straight Blue-Yellow fight.
What I find puzzling now is the prime minister’s position that the SNP is far worse than Labour because, if so, as there are not many seats in Scotland where the Conservative Party has a chance to win, the logic would seem to be that Conservatives should vote tactically for Labour as the lesser of two evils.
I think it’s a huge scare tactic against Labour and whether the particular seat in the House of Commons is occupied by a Labour member or an SNP member perhaps it’s not a great difference. Tebbit accused Cameron of “irritating” the Scots for no good reason.
Having bungled the Scottish referendum it seems pointless to just irritate Scots by shouting at them from Westminster - the English are irritated into voting for Ukip, by being shouted at from Westminster - and the Scots are irritated similarly.
---
Tebbit gets it ! Cameron doesn't.
Cameron gets it.
From the Graun:
"No matter that the SNP’s policies, as revealed on Monday, are copies of Labour’s, so with the sole exception of Trident they hardly drag the already leftwing Miliband any further left."
The whole discussion, regardless of Forsyth, Tebbit, Major, is reminding the electorate how left wing Ed actually is (or rather, is reinforcing a perception that he is left wing).
That is where the damage is being done.
But there are many who want him to be more left wing, since he has been less obviously so lately. They like the idea of the SNP forcing his hand in that direction. So while it will cost him some votes, I think it gains him some too, from people who were hesitant but think he'll be more left wing that they had thought. It comes down to how much of each occurs, and where.
True - but I think the rump of the electorate is centre-based, as each party, Lab & Con, have demonstrated by their move in that direction.
Lab might get some Greens back but on balance I think it will do more harm than good.
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
April showers? Seems more like summer. Of course one month's data, one set of floods or droughts doesn't actually prove anything, they're just indications. It's always puzzled me how intelligent people seem to think that their opinions on AGW really amount to much. The scientific evidence is convincing and is being refined all the time, scientists try to get ever closer to the facts in this field as in any other. You may be right about the majority opinion on PB, luckily they're not running the country. To those who deny (sorry are sceptical about) AGW, just swap to LED bulbs because they'll save you 80% of your electricity bill. This in turn is 20% of your energy bill, which averages around £1,200/yr, so you'd save £240/year, every year. Don't do it for the planet, do it for your pocket.
Trouble is you - as an uninformed and scientifically illiterate observer - are in no position to make any comment of judgement on the matter. And yet for some reason you seem to think yourself qualified to do so. Not the behaviour of an intelligent person really is it?
Your comments are just insults, so can be ignored.
MP campaigns in own constituency shocker !! .... and Davey most certainly has not been campaigning in the seat full time. Relying on Paul Staines for seat analysis is like expecting Farage to pass up a pint on the campaign trail - a non starter.
Dear God we even had the Foreign Secretary in leafy Hersham a few days back. Respect GAIN Surrey ?!?
Tebbit said David Cameron’s decision to talk up the threat posed by the SNP was “puzzling”. .
---
Tebbit gets it ! Cameron doesn't.
Big boost for Labour that Tebbit keeps the Nat - Labour story rumbling on is it ?
I'm sure team Miliband want it to go on and on and on..
It's lovely to see so many Labour supporters out and about today, trying to give the Tories a helping hand.
Lab rampers on here appear to think it's in the bag - a rainbow coalition of the poor, progressive and public sector forming a human chain of kindness coalition from Brighton to Braemar let by the titan of politics - Ed Miliband.
I am no more a fan of the politics of English anger than the Scottish variety: both are marinaded in self-regard and grievance. But proportionality matters. Sturgeon told me in an interview for the Standard just before the campaign that she expected Scottish MPs, even after enhanced devolution, to have a vote on anything from education to the NHS which might have budgetary implications for Scotland. In other words, just about everything that is not about Morris dancing. This is plainly unstable and glaringly unfair. Cameron will spend the next two weeks telling us so. Miliband has an even more forbidding task: shaking off the pythonesque embrace of Nicola Sturgeon.
I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?
But how can he tell her to get stuffed? He can't do anything to counter the dastardly, fiendish, underhand plan of the SNP that their MPs would vote for him in a vote of confidence.
Cameron now at risk of alienating his core vote by appearing to put the union at risk.Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.I wonder how many more there are like them who are irritated by his selfishness and putting personal interest ahead of national interest.
Lab rampers on here appear to think it's in the bag - a progressive coalition of the poor, progressive and public sector forming a human chain of kindness coalition from Brighton to Braemar let by the titan of politics - Ed Miliband.
Nailed on.
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
Edinburgh North and Leith 4482 East Devon 3.363 Wellingborough 3.092 Tonbridge and Malling 2.472 Wantage 2.145 Edinburgh South 2111 Glasgow South 2052 Northampton South 1.935 Ashfield 1.858 Glasgow East 1803 North Cornwall 1.746 Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 1.742 Hendon 1.715 Shrewsbury and Atcham 1.712 Edinburgh West 1665 Mansfield 1.610 Ludlow 1.575 Taunton Deane 1.516 Glasgow South West 1500 Foyle 1.457
Suzanne Evans is the UKIP candidate for Shrewsbury and Atcham.
I thought it was a no-hoper, but she is a great candidate.
Anybody have any PB wisdom to dispense on Oxford East? Will voter registration have an effect? I'm assuming a Labour win of 5-8000.
Is it the margin of victory you're after? Or are you contemplating the odds on a n other party?
Well I'm curious given that it bucked the trend in 2010 having been ultra-marginal in 2005. I'm also thinking of doing my bit to hasten the end of one of Ed's footsoldiers, and I'm wondering how much a waste of effort it will be
Cameron now at risk of alienating his core vote by appearing to put the union at risk.Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.I wonder how many more there are like them who are irritated by his selfishness and putting personal interest ahead of national interest.
You wish.
Both are fine Tories, and I have a lot of time for Tebbit in particular, but the line that the Cons are putting the Union at risk by observing the electoral calculus is not one that has legs IMO.
Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."
Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.
But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???
Why not?
Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.
Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.
Simple. Because floating voters and Lab <> Con switchers in northern working class communities (and I'm from one) tend to be a bit more leftwards leaning than many of their counterparts in the SE, and are probably quite sympathetic to some of the utterances of Sturgeon. They also regard London politicians as distant and out of touch more than our Kent cousins do, so that is something else we have in common with Scots and the SNP.
My consistent point, that the Tory Command just don't get, is that many of the voters they NEED to vote Tory are actually listening to Sturgeon and the general debate about the SNP holding Miliband to ransom and thinking "I quite like that actually", regardless of their views (way down the list of importance) on the West Lothian Question or similar.
I think that the only significant source of floating voters left are waverers between Conservative and UKIP. I don't think they're enamoured of the SNP.
The people who are most keen on SNP involvement in government are those who worry that Labour aren't left-wing enough.
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
Agree with the fact that there is a slight disconnect between satellite data and observed data. However, we're just discussing the small-print here - the trend for global temperatures is inexorably up. Global Warming is happening here and now.
Of course it is, we are in an interglacial period which has also permitted the human race to thrive and prosper to the extent that it uses quite a lot of fossil fuel one way and another. What does correlation not imply?
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
April showers? Seems more like summer. Of course one month's data, one set of floods or droughts doesn't actually prove anything, they're just indications. It's always puzzled me how intelligent people seem to think that their opinions on AGW really amount to much. The scientific evidence is convincing and is being refined all the time, scientists try to get ever closer to the facts in this field as in any other. You may be right about the majority opinion on PB, luckily they're not running the country. To those who deny (sorry are sceptical about) AGW, just swap to LED bulbs because they'll save you 80% of your electricity bill. This in turn is 20% of your energy bill, which averages around £1,200/yr, so you'd save £240/year, every year. Don't do it for the planet, do it for your pocket.
Trouble is you - as an uninformed and scientifically illiterate observer - are in no position to make any comment of judgement on the matter. And yet for some reason you seem to think yourself qualified to do so. Not the behaviour of an intelligent person really is it?
Your comments are just insults, so can be ignored.
Ah the difference is that I actually know what I am talking about when it comes to climate science whereas you clearly do not. I have had a fair few insult free and interesting exchanges with Obitus amongst others on here about climate science. But you apparently know little on the subject and are happier throwing around 'denier' insults instead. As such you really have nothing to bring to the debate beyond your closed mind.
Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.
This is hilarious
TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are throwbacks to a Thatcherite past, and remind voters of the Nasty Party, oh, wait the true voice of conservatism that Cameron should and must adhere to...
Cameron now at risk of alienating his core vote by appearing to put the union at risk.Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.I wonder how many more there are like them who are irritated by his selfishness and putting personal interest ahead of national interest.
The union is already at risk - in fact an SNP landslide makes its end all but inevitable I fear - and the Tories winning the election is generally regarded as the thing that would hasten its demise the quickest, so I am a little unsure of what more the Tories could do to imperil it. Surely the only thing that does not put the union in any further risk would be for Labour to not lose all those seats, but that is not an option - even with all Tories voting tactically to help them the SNP would win a great many.
Re. Surbiton and Ed Davey, one of my colleagues at work is convinced Davey is on the back foot (although again, I'd point to the Lord Ashcroft polls). They've been getting relatively positive reponses whilst canvassing, so who knows. I think the "Ed Davey" brand is too strong, personally.
I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?
But how can he tell her to get stuffed? He can't do anything to counter the dastardly, fiendish, underhand plan of the SNP that their MPs would vote for him in a vote of confidence.
It destroys Labour's argument (Put forward here by Scottish Labour supporter John N, Murphy etc) that a vote for the SNP is a vote for the Tories...
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
Agree with the fact that there is a slight disconnect between satellite data and observed data. However, we're just discussing the small-print here - the trend for global temperatures is inexorably up. Global Warming is happening here and now.
Which could be translated as:
Yes, the data is puzzling and inconsistent.
BUT LOOK! LOOK! HERE'S MY FAITH! BURN THE HERETICS!
Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."
Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.
But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???
Why not?
Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.
Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.
Simple. Because floating voters and Lab <> Con switchers in northern working class communities (and I'm from one) tend to be a bit more leftwards leaning than many of their counterparts in the SE, and are probably quite sympathetic to some of the utterances of Sturgeon. They also regard London politicians as distant and out of touch more than our Kent cousins do, so that is something else we have in common with Scots and the SNP.
My consistent point, that the Tory Command just don't get, is that many of the voters they NEED to vote Tory are actually listening to Sturgeon and the general debate about the SNP holding Miliband to ransom and thinking "I quite like that actually", regardless of their views (way down the list of importance) on the West Lothian Question or similar.
The overlap in the Venn diagram of "people who are sympathetic to Sturgeon" and "people who might vote tory" would need a microscope!
And do tell us more about these "leftwards leaning tory voters".
I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?
But how can he tell her to get stuffed? He can't do anything to counter the dastardly, fiendish, underhand plan of the SNP that their MPs would vote for him in a vote of confidence.
It destroys Labour's argument (Put forward here by Scottish Labour supporter John N, Murphy etc) that a vote for the SNP is a vote for the Tories...
Tremendously dastardly I agree.
I think it's the funniest aspect of the whole campaign so far: "The SNP are going to help you become PM whether you like it or not!"
Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."
Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.
But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???
Why not?
Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.
Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.
Simple. Because floating voters and Lab <> Con switchers in northern working class communities (and I'm from one) tend to be a bit more leftwards leaning than many of their counterparts in the SE, and are probably quite sympathetic to some of the utterances of Sturgeon.
My consistent point, that the Tory Command just don't get, is that many of the voters they NEED to vote Tory are actually listening to Sturgeon and the general debate about the SNP holding Miliband to ransom and thinking "I quite like that actually", regardless of their views (way down the list of importance) on the West Lothian Question or similar.
Labour is closing around the metropolitan cities, public sector professionals, third sector, broadcast media and left-leaning graduates and intelligentsia. In the long-term, they should be very strong in Manchester, London, Brighton, Oxford, Cambridge, Bristol and Nottingham.
The Conservatives are hoovering up the wealthy shires and suburbs where the Home Counties middle class English congregate, or migrate and retire to, including South-west England and South-west Wales. Affluent city workers and upper-middle classes in the country. There are also similar pockets in the north - e.g North Yorkshire.
The big hole both have (or will have) is the WWC, ethnic minorities (I think even Labour could end up having a problem here outside London) South Wales, Merseyside, North East and urban Lancashire and Yorkshire. That's on top of Scotland and NI being no go areas.
On current trends, I struggle to see any way back for Labour or the Conservatives to win another overall majority again. Unless either of them absolutely cleans up England, which I don't think will happen for the reasons above.
Depending on the price, I'd be sorely tempted to start backing a hung parliament for 2020 too, as soon as the markets are up.
Cameron now at risk of alienating his core vote by appearing to put the union at risk.Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.I wonder how many more there are like them who are irritated by his selfishness and putting personal interest ahead of national interest.
Just wishful thinking that Tebbit and Forsythe have any effect on the conservative core vote. Judging by the fury from labour the subject is cutting through. Re the polls they seem to have become irrelevant with each side jumping on a particular poll favourable to them. No one can possibly know what will happen on the 7th May and it is all to play for on all sides, except Scottish labour and the lib-dems. Saw Paddy Ashdown on the BBC and he seemed very uptight about the conservative attack re the SNP and really looked like he knew it was all over for the lib-dems
Re. Surbiton and Ed Davey, one of my colleagues at work is convinced Davey is on the back foot (although again, I'd point to the Lord Ashcroft polls). They've been getting relatively positive reponses whilst canvassing, so who knows. I think the "Ed Davey" brand is too strong, personally.
I am no more a fan of the politics of English anger than the Scottish variety: both are marinaded in self-regard and grievance. But proportionality matters. Sturgeon told me in an interview for the Standard just before the campaign that she expected Scottish MPs, even after enhanced devolution, to have a vote on anything from education to the NHS which might have budgetary implications for Scotland. In other words, just about everything that is not about Morris dancing. This is plainly unstable and glaringly unfair. Cameron will spend the next two weeks telling us so. Miliband has an even more forbidding task: shaking off the pythonesque embrace of Nicola Sturgeon.
I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?
"which might have budgetary implications for Scotland", and then the author whines that it's unfair for MPs from Scotland to wish to influence that decision?
Pull the other leg, I'm a centipede (or in this context perhaps rather a Milipede).
I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?
But how can he tell her to get stuffed? He can't do anything to counter the dastardly, fiendish, underhand plan of the SNP that their MPs would vote for him in a vote of confidence.
It destroys Labour's argument (Put forward here by Scottish Labour supporter John N, Murphy etc) that a vote for the SNP is a vote for the Tories...
Tremendously dastardly I agree.
I think it's the funniest aspect of the whole campaign so far: "The SNP are going to help you become PM whether you like it or not!"
The DailyMash write up of the argument as a relationship drama I thought particularly amusing.
Trembling and close to tears, Miliband asked Sturgeon: “What is it you want me to do, Nicola? What am I not doing already? I can’t read your mind.”
Sturgeon replied: “I want you to be happy. I want us to be happy. But I don’t think you know what happiness really means anymore. How many f------ kitchens is it going to take?”
Miliband said: “Here we go with the kitchens. And yes, you always say you want me to be happy, but on your terms. It’s always on your terms, Nicola.”
Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.
This is hilarious
TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are throwbacks to a Thatcherite past, and remind voters of the Nasty Party, oh, wait the true voice of conservatism that Cameron should and must adhere to...
Spin any harder you'll throw up, lads.
It may be inverted snobbishness but I don't want old style, Old Etonian Tories of the old school to succeed me and go back to the old complacent, consensus ways. John Major is someone who has fought his way up from the bottom and is far more in tune with the skilled and ambitious and worthwhile working classes than Douglas Hurd is.
- MHT said to Woodrow Wyatt (23 November 1990), Sarah Curtis (ed.), The Journals of Woodrow Wyatt. Volume Two (Pan, 2000), pp. 401-402.
Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.
This is hilarious
TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are throwbacks to a Thatcherite past, and remind voters of the Nasty Party, oh, wait the true voice of conservatism that Cameron should and must adhere to...
Spin any harder you'll throw up, lads.
It may be inverted snobbishness but I don't want old style, Old Etonian Tories of the old school to succeed me and go back to the old complacent, consensus ways. John Major is someone who has fought his way up from the bottom and is far more in tune with the skilled and ambitious and worthwhile working classes than Douglas Hurd is.
- MHT said to Woodrow Wyatt (23 November 1990), Sarah Curtis (ed.), The Journals of Woodrow Wyatt. Volume Two (Pan, 2000), pp. 401-402.
I am no more a fan of the politics of English anger than the Scottish variety: both are marinaded in self-regard and grievance. But proportionality matters. Sturgeon told me in an interview for the Standard just before the campaign that she expected Scottish MPs, even after enhanced devolution, to have a vote on anything from education to the NHS which might have budgetary implications for Scotland. In other words, just about everything that is not about Morris dancing. This is plainly unstable and glaringly unfair. Cameron will spend the next two weeks telling us so. Miliband has an even more forbidding task: shaking off the pythonesque embrace of Nicola Sturgeon.
I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?
"which might have budgetary implications for Scotland", and then the author whines that it's unfair for MPs from Scotland to wish to influence that decision?
Pull the other leg, I'm a centipede (or in this context perhaps rather a Milipede).
Firstly, it should be a very straightforward and easy matter to ensure that English MPs priorities as to how they spend their money does not have a knock on effect on a fixed Scottish budget.
Secondly, the logic of the SNP's (and SLAB's) position is that the Commons should have this wedge of MPs who will always vote for more public spending on the basis that it brings additional and consequential pork to Scotland. Does anyone, even in the SNP, seriously think that is a sustainable position?
I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?
But how can he tell her to get stuffed? He can't do anything to counter the dastardly, fiendish, underhand plan of the SNP that their MPs would vote for him in a vote of confidence.
He can always ask his own MPs to vote against! Which is why I mentioned on a previous thread that we might get a scenario of Labour voting against their own confidence motion - and the tories in favour.
Anybody have any PB wisdom to dispense on Oxford East? Will voter registration have an effect? I'm assuming a Labour win of 5-8000.
Is it the margin of victory you're after? Or are you contemplating the odds on a n other party?
I'm also thinking of doing my bit to hasten the end of one of Ed's footsoldiers, and I'm wondering how much a waste of effort it will be
There must be many more worthwhile constituencies for a Lib Dem activist to put some effort into. They have zero chance of winning here.
Its more fun fighting the left.
I see there's a Green, Socialist, TUSC and UKIP vote to fracture the Labour core.
I live in Oxford East too! would love to think the LD could take it but it's not going to happen - I did get a leaflet though from the Socialist Party of GB - which is more than I've had from the Lib Dems - nothing nada zilch
Re. Surbiton and Ed Davey, one of my colleagues at work is convinced Davey is on the back foot (although again, I'd point to the Lord Ashcroft polls). They've been getting relatively positive reponses whilst canvassing, so who knows. I think the "Ed Davey" brand is too strong, personally.
Can you explain the appeal of it ?
The appeal of Ed Davey? I'm not sure, myself. I certainly admire his tenacity - he was was a particularly lonesome figure outside Waitrose handing out leaflets in Surbiton the other evening, so he certainly gets stuck in. Saying that, my colleague most probably has a reason to be optimistic being he was elected as a Tory councillor last year when they re-took control of the council, so understands the dynamics better than I do.
Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.
This is hilarious
TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are throwbacks to a Thatcherite past, and remind voters of the Nasty Party, oh, wait the true voice of conservatism that Cameron should and must adhere to...
Based on the current rules, the next boundary commission will be using the December 2015 electoral registers. This is after the full effect of independent voter registration comes in, as this year as an interim measure there has been rollover of the previous register where people have not moved, etc.
Dave has spent more time during this election talking about the S.N.P. than talking about the N.H.S.
Says it all really
This week is labour's big NHS week but it is all being drowned out by the SNP controversy and with the terrible migrants problem in the Med rightly being subject to intense media scrunity on thursday by the European council meeting, and a possible royal baby, the week is likely to finish with no or very little, NHS coverage
Anybody have any PB wisdom to dispense on Oxford East? Will voter registration have an effect? I'm assuming a Labour win of 5-8000.
Is it the margin of victory you're after? Or are you contemplating the odds on a n other party?
I'm also thinking of doing my bit to hasten the end of one of Ed's footsoldiers, and I'm wondering how much a waste of effort it will be
There must be many more worthwhile constituencies for a Lib Dem activist to put some effort into. They have zero chance of winning here.
Its more fun fighting the left.
I see there's a Green, Socialist, TUSC and UKIP vote to fracture the Labour core.
I live in Oxford East too! would love to think the LD could take it but it's not going to happen - I did get a leaflet though from the Socialist Party of GB - which is more than I've had from the Lib Dems - nothing nada zilch
I'm not always sure that the Post Office are totally even-handed when it comes to delivering the Freepost.
If it was ever going to be taken it was in 2010 so it won't happen this time, unless voter registration has an effect.
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
April showers? Seems more like summer. Of course one month's data, one set of floods or droughts doesn't actually prove anything, they're just indications. It's always puzzled me how intelligent people seem to think that their opinions on AGW really amount to much. The scientific evidence is convincing and is being refined all the time, scientists try to get ever closer to the facts in this field as in any other. You may be right about the majority opinion on PB, luckily they're not running the country. To those who deny (sorry are sceptical about) AGW, just swap to LED bulbs because they'll save you 80% of your electricity bill. This in turn is 20% of your energy bill, which averages around £1,200/yr, so you'd save £240/year, every year. Don't do it for the planet, do it for your pocket.
Trouble is you - as an uninformed and scientifically illiterate observer - are in no position to make any comment of judgement on the matter. And yet for some reason you seem to think yourself qualified to do so. Not the behaviour of an intelligent person really is it?
Your comments are just insults, so can be ignored.
Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.
This is hilarious
TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are throwbacks to a Thatcherite past, and remind voters of the Nasty Party, oh, wait the true voice of conservatism that Cameron should and must adhere to...
Spin any harder you'll throw up, lads.
It may be inverted snobbishness but I don't want old style, Old Etonian Tories of the old school to succeed me and go back to the old complacent, consensus ways. John Major is someone who has fought his way up from the bottom and is far more in tune with the skilled and ambitious and worthwhile working classes than Douglas Hurd is.
- MHT said to Woodrow Wyatt (23 November 1990), Sarah Curtis (ed.), The Journals of Woodrow Wyatt. Volume Two (Pan, 2000), pp. 401-402.
And Mr Tebbit too, IIRC.
I read Mr Tebbit's autobiography last year. He comes across as a Good Egg.
He'd have been a super successor to Mrs T as leader of the Conservative Party.
Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.
This is hilarious
TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are throwbacks to a Thatcherite past, and remind voters of the Nasty Party, oh, wait the true voice of conservatism that Cameron should and must adhere to...
Spin any harder you'll throw up, lads.
Tebbit and Forsythe were part of a party that won three majorities in a row, unlike the current party.
I am no more a fan of the politics of English anger than the Scottish variety: both are marinaded in self-regard and grievance. But proportionality matters. Sturgeon told me in an interview for the Standard just before the campaign that she expected Scottish MPs, even after enhanced devolution, to have a vote on anything from education to the NHS which might have budgetary implications for Scotland. In other words, just about everything that is not about Morris dancing. This is plainly unstable and glaringly unfair. Cameron will spend the next two weeks telling us so. Miliband has an even more forbidding task: shaking off the pythonesque embrace of Nicola Sturgeon.
I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?
"which might have budgetary implications for Scotland", and then the author whines that it's unfair for MPs from Scotland to wish to influence that decision?
Pull the other leg, I'm a centipede (or in this context perhaps rather a Milipede).
Firstly, it should be a very straightforward and easy matter to ensure that English MPs priorities as to how they spend their money does not have a knock on effect on a fixed Scottish budget.
Secondly, the logic of the SNP's (and SLAB's) position is that the Commons should have this wedge of MPs who will always vote for more public spending on the basis that it brings additional and consequential pork to Scotland. Does anyone, even in the SNP, seriously think that is a sustainable position?
I think you are perhaps confusing spending with budgetary decisions - the original Standard article is plainly exaggerating for panic effect. It's not - usually - a problem [edit] to deal with minutiae of English spending.
On the second issue, why not? All MPs do it within the UK context, as far as they can, and indeed so they should. That's part of what they are voted in for.
Dave has spent more time during this election talking about the S.N.P. than talking about the N.H.S.
Says it all really
This week is labour's big NHS week but it is all being drowned out by the SNP controversy and with the terrible migrants problem in the Med rightly being subject to intense media scrunity on thursday by the European council meeting, and a possible royal baby, the week is likely to finish with no or very little, NHS coverage
Unless anyone wants to have a serious debate about how the Health Service in the UK can be afforded in the long term, that is probably the best result. Politicians producing silly figures and willy-waving about how much more they will borrow to spend doesn't take us any further forward.
Amazes me how many on here will hunt for anything that props up there wishes and willfully ignore the only unbiased and science based evidence - the polls.
The polls aren't that varied and what they are saying is this: David Cameron will not be Prime Minister on May 8.
Comments
Good poll for UKIP as weighted considering how people voted in the 2010 election and excludes those who prefer not to say. In the Midlands UKIP vote share is only 7% less than Labour!
Surely they should have consulted Richard Nabavi first. He would have told them how well it was all going !
(only kidding!)
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/march-2015-global-satellite-me/45194068
I thought it was a no-hoper, but she is a great candidate.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/shrewsburyandatcham/
Nothing I'm hearing from team yellow or blue suggest he'll lose, let alone by 5,000.
Short term it seems like the best chance yet the Tories have had to shift some votes in England, but there's no question it will cause difficulties after the election. But those were coming anyway, so worth the risk I suppose was the judgement. I doubt it will prove a problem. Plenty of work to be done in the constituency to shore up that newly won SNP vote, and surely almost all could stick out even a bored first term, how awful would it have to be to just quit so early without intense personal reasons? Not to mention the prospect of another referendum within 5 years possibly.
The LDs have been on 31 - 31 - 32 - 23 in their own E&W constituencies (47 in 2010) .
Going with 31% as a median, by my estimation they save 19/46. Plus 1 in Scotland.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/21/election-2015-live-labour-john-major-blackmail-snp-nicola-sturgeon-ed-miliband#block-55365de5e4b01211d17a1e0c
What I find puzzling now is the prime minister’s position that the SNP is far worse than Labour because, if so, as there are not many seats in Scotland where the Conservative Party has a chance to win, the logic would seem to be that Conservatives should vote tactically for Labour as the lesser of two evils.
I think it’s a huge scare tactic against Labour and whether the particular seat in the House of Commons is occupied by a Labour member or an SNP member perhaps it’s not a great difference.
Tebbit accused Cameron of “irritating” the Scots for no good reason.
Having bungled the Scottish referendum it seems pointless to just irritate Scots by shouting at them from Westminster - the English are irritated into voting for Ukip, by being shouted at from Westminster - and the Scots are irritated similarly.
---
Tebbit gets it ! Cameron doesn't.
Mr Davey has been campaigning full time since November, so he doesn't seem to consider it a safe seat.
http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/davey-diverts-his-energy/
I'm sure team Miliband want it to go on and on and on..
"we would probably get on like a house on fire"
Panic, shouting, people running away?
(from T Pratchett).
From the Graun: theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/21/tories-election-2015-sturgeon-miliband-warning
The whole discussion, regardless of Forsyth, Tebbit, Major, is reminding the electorate how left wing Ed actually is (or rather, is reinforcing a perception that he is left wing).
That is where the damage is being done.
The whole discussion, regardless of Forsyth, Tebbit, Major, is reminding the electorate how left wing Ed actually is (or rather, is reinforcing a perception that he is left wing).
That is where the damage is being done.
But there are many who want him to be more left wing, since he has been less obviously so lately. They like the idea of the SNP forcing his hand in that direction. So while it will cost him some votes, I think it gains him some too, from people who were hesitant but think he'll be more left wing that they had thought. It comes down to how much of each occurs, and where.
Thankyou very much !
Has the world warmed up over the last 50 years? Absolutely.
Does that warming overall match the models? No. And that is even after the models have been revised to produce less predicted warming.
There is a fundamental disconnect between the models and the observations. At which point any good scientist should go back and revisit the basic assumptions behind the modelling.
In England, under coalition, best funded, best results
In Wales, under Labour, not so good
In Scotland, under SNP, dismal
Just imagine the English NHS in the hands of those who have jointly screwed up Wales and Scotland...
Currently;
Dave 2.24
Ed 1.8
Of course, at that point the Tory challenger probably had a much lower profile than they do today.
If the polling companies enjoin together they could pol every adult on the islands in a week.
I'd expect Labour to still get this fairly comfortably but maybe a thousand or a bit more less than might've been the case.
The boundary commission may well come round with a blue pencil and an OS map after that kind of decline given the electorate was only about 64K in 2010 anyway.
I was born within a stone's throw of the Trent and Mersey at Stenson, before Stenson Fields came along, that is. ;-)
We must keep telling these Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire and Staffordshire people that they were born in the wrong place. I would add Yorkshiremen, but you can never tell one of them anything!
My consistent point, that the Tory Command just don't get, is that many of the voters they NEED to vote Tory are actually listening to Sturgeon and the general debate about the SNP holding Miliband to ransom and thinking "I quite like that actually", regardless of their views (way down the list of importance) on the West Lothian Question or similar.
True - but I think the rump of the electorate is centre-based, as each party, Lab & Con, have demonstrated by their move in that direction.
Lab might get some Greens back but on balance I think it will do more harm than good.
You could get a virtual exit poll tbh - Lib Dem HOLD by around 7% or so I reckon.
Strong No vote, then again Skene is a local whereas Carmichael is from the mainland...
Dear God we even had the Foreign Secretary in leafy Hersham a few days back. Respect GAIN Surrey ?!?
Nailed on.
I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?
It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
Both are fine Tories, and I have a lot of time for Tebbit in particular, but the line that the Cons are putting the Union at risk by observing the electoral calculus is not one that has legs IMO.
The people who are most keen on SNP involvement in government are those who worry that Labour aren't left-wing enough.
TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are throwbacks to a Thatcherite past, and remind voters of the Nasty Party, oh, wait the true voice of conservatism that Cameron should and must adhere to...
Spin any harder you'll throw up, lads.
Tremendously dastardly I agree.
Yes, the data is puzzling and inconsistent.
BUT LOOK! LOOK! HERE'S MY FAITH! BURN THE HERETICS!
(Apologies for the caps).
And do tell us more about these "leftwards leaning tory voters".
Actually don't...really please don't.
The Conservatives are hoovering up the wealthy shires and suburbs where the Home Counties middle class English congregate, or migrate and retire to, including South-west England and South-west Wales. Affluent city workers and upper-middle classes in the country. There are also similar pockets in the north - e.g North Yorkshire.
The big hole both have (or will have) is the WWC, ethnic minorities (I think even Labour could end up having a problem here outside London) South Wales, Merseyside, North East and urban Lancashire and Yorkshire. That's on top of Scotland and NI being no go areas.
On current trends, I struggle to see any way back for Labour or the Conservatives to win another overall majority again. Unless either of them absolutely cleans up England, which I don't think will happen for the reasons above.
Depending on the price, I'd be sorely tempted to start backing a hung parliament for 2020 too, as soon as the markets are up.
I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?
"which might have budgetary implications for Scotland", and then the author whines that it's unfair for MPs from Scotland to wish to influence that decision?
Pull the other leg, I'm a centipede (or in this context perhaps rather a Milipede).
Says it all really
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/i-just-want-you-to-be-happy-sturgeon-tells-miliband-2015041797442
Trembling and close to tears, Miliband asked Sturgeon: “What is it you want me to do, Nicola? What am I not doing already? I can’t read your mind.”
Sturgeon replied: “I want you to be happy. I want us to be happy. But I don’t think you know what happiness really means anymore. How many f------ kitchens is it going to take?”
Miliband said: “Here we go with the kitchens. And yes, you always say you want me to be happy, but on your terms. It’s always on your terms, Nicola.”
Yes, I am easily amused.
- MHT said to Woodrow Wyatt (23 November 1990), Sarah Curtis (ed.), The Journals of Woodrow Wyatt. Volume Two (Pan, 2000), pp. 401-402.
Paddy Ashdown uses the b-word seven times in four minutes http://dlvr.it/9V0jn6
...and guess who he's calling bastards. tee - hee
I think he's gone a bit senile.
Pull the other leg, I'm a centipede (or in this context perhaps rather a Milipede).
Firstly, it should be a very straightforward and easy matter to ensure that English MPs priorities as to how they spend their money does not have a knock on effect on a fixed Scottish budget.
Secondly, the logic of the SNP's (and SLAB's) position is that the Commons should have this wedge of MPs who will always vote for more public spending on the basis that it brings additional and consequential pork to Scotland. Does anyone, even in the SNP, seriously think that is a sustainable position?
I see there's a Green, Socialist, TUSC and UKIP vote to fracture the Labour core.
Or is Labour's new policy not to have inquiries into NHS failures. You know, just in case it makes NHS trusts look bad?
The appeal of Ed Davey? I'm not sure, myself. I certainly admire his tenacity - he was was a particularly lonesome figure outside Waitrose handing out leaflets in Surbiton the other evening, so he certainly gets stuck in. Saying that, my colleague most probably has a reason to be optimistic being he was elected as a Tory councillor last year when they re-took control of the council, so understands the dynamics better than I do.
If it was ever going to be taken it was in 2010 so it won't happen this time, unless voter registration has an effect.
I'm relieved to hear the bastion of Britishness which is morris dancing shall be untainted by the grubby business of partisan politics.
Whoever forms the next government, morris dancing shall flourish!
He'd have been a super successor to Mrs T as leader of the Conservative Party.
Secondly, the logic of the SNP's (and SLAB's) position is that the Commons should have this wedge of MPs who will always vote for more public spending on the basis that it brings additional and consequential pork to Scotland. Does anyone, even in the SNP, seriously think that is a sustainable position?
I think you are perhaps confusing spending with budgetary decisions - the original Standard article is plainly exaggerating for panic effect. It's not - usually - a problem [edit] to deal with minutiae of English spending.
On the second issue, why not? All MPs do it within the UK context, as far as they can, and indeed so they should. That's part of what they are voted in for.
The polls aren't that varied and what they are saying is this: David Cameron will not be Prime Minister on May 8.