Does anyone think England will have an attack that can take 20 wickets in less than 3 days this time?
Well the beard that is feared is back. Should help.
I was hoping that Rashid might get a game but Tredwell bowled well and deserves his place too. Drop Broad or Jordon?
I think Tredders won't be picked because of either a hand or elbow problem.
If the latter, perhaps Sunil should be co-opted on to the ECB training team....
Sunil doesn't like cricket.
Is Golf the only sport more boring than Test Cricket?
*dons flame-proof suit*
Test Cricket is the finest, most civilized sport in the world.
That's true. The funny thing is when I first noticed cricket on the TV when I was 10 years old and heard Richie Benaud commentating I instantly knew it to be the case.
Probably about 50% of fifth days end up in a draw, but that isn't the same thing as them being a boring experience.
Yawwwwwn!
I've heard some people describe Test cricket as boring and then say they're fans of watching chess. Doesn't make sense to me. Test cricket is like chess except more active.
I did play chess for my primary school, can't remember any of my matches lasting five days and ending in a pointless draw!
Did you play chess with a clock? That's like 20/20 cricket, that is!
I think I heard Al Campbell ranting away on the radio and then came Cleggy to insult our intelligence. Labour plus SNP is just the same as Tories plus Ukip. So the Tories will be held to ransom by three or four Kipper MPs? Really? In what child's universe?
Forty plus MPs with a grievance I can understand, So does Labour really think that Ukip will have forty MPs like the SNP?
It’s currently very fashionable to rubbish the Conservative campaign, and Labour have tried to cite the use of the SNP card as evidence of mounting panic in the Tory camp. But the reality is posters depicting Ed Miliband dancing to the SNP’s tune first appeared at the beginning of March. Since then the Tories have been doggedly prodding away at the theme.
As you are now re-tweeting and quoting Dan Hodges in the Telegraph, I think we can be confident that the Conservative campaign is in real trouble and they are getting ready to embrace Opposition.
Does anyone think England will have an attack that can take 20 wickets in less than 3 days this time?
Well the beard that is feared is back. Should help.
I was hoping that Rashid might get a game but Tredwell bowled well and deserves his place too. Drop Broad or Jordon?
I think Tredders won't be picked because of either a hand or elbow problem.
If the latter, perhaps Sunil should be co-opted on to the ECB training team....
Sunil doesn't like cricket.
Is Golf the only sport more boring than Test Cricket?
*dons flame-proof suit*
Test Cricket is the finest, most civilized sport in the world.
That's true. The funny thing is when I first noticed cricket on the TV when I was 10 years old and heard Richie Benaud commentating I instantly knew it to be the case.
Probably about 50% of fifth days end up in a draw, but that isn't the same thing as them being a boring experience.
Yawwwwwn!
I've heard some people describe Test cricket as boring and then say they're fans of watching chess. Doesn't make sense to me. Test cricket is like chess except more active.
I did play chess for my primary school, can't remember any of my matches lasting five days and ending in a pointless draw!
Did you play chess with a clock? That's like 20/20 cricket, that is!
The second [straw to clutch at] is that Labour’s position in Scotland doesn’t prove to be as dire as everyone suspects. “The one thing I’m clinging to is the record of the Scottish Labour party in predicting election results”, one shadow cabinet member told me. “Every recent election they’ve predicted we’d do well, and every time they been shown to be totally and utterly wrong. This time they’re telling us 'we’re screwed up here'. And that gives me some hope.”
Is today's match in Grenada the first time England have played a Test there? I ought to know the answer but don't.
Yes, it is. They've also never won in Antigua, which was a good indicator, alongside the flat track, that they would fail in the last test (as a tidbit of hindsight) Now Jimmy has the record, expect him to go mental in this one, and back Cook to come good with the bat - he has a track record of starting golden runs on the back of disastrous ones.
I think I heard Al Campbell ranting away on the radio and then came Cleggy to insult our intelligence. Labour plus SNP is just the same as Tories plus Ukip. So the Tories will be held to ransom by three or four Kipper MPs? Really? In what child's universe?
Forty plus MPs with a grievance I can understand, So does Labour really think that Ukip will have forty MPs like the SNP?
Do Labour really want ranting Campbell on the loose, serving as a reminder of the bad old days?
Does anyone think England will have an attack that can take 20 wickets in less than 3 days this time?
Well the beard that is feared is back. Should help.
I was hoping that Rashid might get a game but Tredwell bowled well and deserves his place too. Drop Broad or Jordon?
I think Tredders won't be picked because of either a hand or elbow problem.
If the latter, perhaps Sunil should be co-opted on to the ECB training team....
Sunil doesn't like cricket.
Is Golf the only sport more boring than Test Cricket?
*dons flame-proof suit*
Test Cricket is the finest, most civilized sport in the world.
That's true. The funny thing is when I first noticed cricket on the TV when I was 10 years old and heard Richie Benaud commentating I instantly knew it to be the case.
Probably about 50% of fifth days end up in a draw, but that isn't the same thing as them being a boring experience.
Yawwwwwn!
I've heard some people describe Test cricket as boring and then say they're fans of watching chess. Doesn't make sense to me. Test cricket is like chess except more active.
I did play chess for my primary school, can't remember any of my matches lasting five days and ending in a pointless draw!
Did you play chess with a clock? That's like 20/20 cricket, that is!
Slightly oddly it is a3 folded into 4... The front page is a big photo of 'ANGELA WATKINSON for Hornchurch & Upminster'
The back page 'ANGELA WATKINSON YOUR NEXT MP'
I say odd as it doesn't mention the Conservative party and also because she already is my MP
It opens up to A3 size and we have a lot of text about what Angela will do...and much is made of the EU referendum
Who should govern our country - BRUSSELS OR BRITAIN? Who should control our immigration - BRUSSELS OR BRITAIN?
Conservative brand mentioned two or three times and small logo in corner
Leads me to believe the Tories think Ukip are capable of taking the seat.. We've had a couple of surveys last year from 'angela' asking who we would vote for...
8/1 - 10/1 Ukip I think... Looking more likely than I had hoped for given the boards up etc
It was on my second tier of Ukip possibles for people who are interested... Ukip+BNP 2010 was 11.7%
Satire is indeed not dead, when we have the spectacle of Alastair Campbell, of all people on this earth, complaining about what he sees as negative campaigning.
On Yns Mon @ 12-5 in Wales. Seems OK off the back of this Electionforecast had Plaid dead for AGES.
Without knowing anything about Wales I logically expected a Plaid surge since everyone else was in government. But it's been very slow in coming, even with the debates to help.
Slightly oddly it is a3 folded into 4... The front page is a big photo of 'ANGELA WATKINSON for Hornchurch & Upminster'
The back page 'ANGELA WATKINSON YOUR NEXT MP'
I say odd as it doesn't mention the Conservative party and also because she already is my MP
It opens up to A3 size and we have a lot of text about what Angeks will do...and much is made of the EU referendum
Who should govern our country - BRUSSELS OR BRITAIN? Who should control our immigration - BRUSSELS OR BRITAIN?
Conservative brand mentioned two or three times and small logo in corner
Leads me to believe the Tories think Ukip are capable of taking the seat.. We've had a couple of surveys last year from 'angela' asking who we would vote for...
8/1 - 10/1 Ukip I think... Looking more likely than I had hoped for given the boards up etc
Sounds like good targetting of a specific leaflet.
The second [straw to clutch at] is that Labour’s position in Scotland doesn’t prove to be as dire as everyone suspects. “The one thing I’m clinging to is the record of the Scottish Labour party in predicting election results”, one shadow cabinet member told me. “Every recent election they’ve predicted we’d do well, and every time they been shown to be totally and utterly wrong. This time they’re telling us 'we’re screwed up here'. And that gives me some hope.”
Satire is indeed not dead, when we have the spectacle of Alastair Campbell, of all people on this earth, complaining about what he sees as negative campaigning.
I can trump that: Damian McBride is complaining about bad taste jokes.
I heard a bit of Alastair Campbell being interviewed on the radio whilst I was out buying a sarnie at lunchtime. He was quite stridently (as ever) arguing that the Tories should be sticking to selling the Tory line and Tory policies in the GE campaign and Labour should do the same for theirs, and it was pathetic and desperate for the Tories to be articulating nothing of their message or policies and instead negatively scaremongering people into what it would be like if the SNP won loads of seats and held a Labour government to ransom, and that it demeaned them to have given up so completely that this was their only message.
It was an utterly compelling point, obviously correct, and I agreed with every word.
Not very often you'll see my saying that about Campbell's utterances (unless they involve the Clarets), but he's spot on.
Why cannot Tory high command see how badly they are shooting themselves in the foot?
Why do I get the feeling Bad Al doesn't have the Tories best interest's at heart?????
Of course he doesn't. I can normally get all outraged and argumentative when I hear Ali C because he's usually talking Labour partisan gibberish.
But on this. Spot on. That was my point - it's a bit unusual for me to agree with him, which kind of makes me think he might be right....
Given that a minority Labour government, held to ransom by the SNP, would be a disaster for the country, I think the Tory strategy of pointing that out is correct.
They should counter it with a little more "light" to go with all the "shade" but overall I think they are playing this week pretty well.
Ah, so majority Labour govt would be preferable?
There's very little little chance of a Labour majority with the losing most of their Scottish seats...
Because students are no longer registered by their Hall of Residence, I wonder if those students who have bothered to register have done so at their parents home and thus moved their vote away from their university town.
Unless they have a postal vote they may also find they are not in the constituency on the day of voting and can not vote.
Also they should be concentrating on exams in May.
Slightly oddly it is a3 folded into 4... The front page is a big photo of 'ANGELA WATKINSON for Hornchurch & Upminster'
The back page 'ANGELA WATKINSON YOUR NEXT MP'
I say odd as it doesn't mention the Conservative party and also because she already is my MP
It opens up to A3 size and we have a lot of text about what Angeks will do...and much is made of the EU referendum
Who should govern our country - BRUSSELS OR BRITAIN? Who should control our immigration - BRUSSELS OR BRITAIN?
Conservative brand mentioned two or three times and small logo in corner
Leads me to believe the Tories think Ukip are capable of taking the seat.. We've had a couple of surveys last year from 'angela' asking who we would vote for...
8/1 - 10/1 Ukip I think... Looking more likely than I had hoped for given the boards up etc
Sounds like good targetting of a specific leaflet.
I think it will be pretty close... Haven't bet Ukip as thought Tories would win easily, but maybe not so sure now. Only seen Ukip boards, posters and billboards, nothing from anyone else and I live in the Tory part of town
i would also point out to Mike smithson that higher numbers of young people voting could be good for SNP and the Green Party as they their voters tend to be younger.
I think I heard Al Campbell ranting away on the radio and then came Cleggy to insult our intelligence. Labour plus SNP is just the same as Tories plus Ukip. So the Tories will be held to ransom by three or four Kipper MPs? Really? In what child's universe?
Forty plus MPs with a grievance I can understand, So does Labour really think that Ukip will have forty MPs like the SNP?
You do know that Clegg is not in the Labour Party.
Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."
Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.
But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???
I heard a bit of Alastair Campbell being interviewed on the radio whilst I was out buying a sarnie at lunchtime. He was quite stridently (as ever) arguing that the Tories should be sticking to selling the Tory line and Tory policies in the GE campaign and Labour should do the same for theirs, and it was pathetic and desperate for the Tories to be articulating nothing of their message or policies and instead negatively scaremongering people into what it would be like if the SNP won loads of seats and held a Labour government to ransom, and that it demeaned them to have given up so completely that this was their only message.
It was an utterly compelling point, obviously correct, and I agreed with every word.
Not very often you'll see my saying that about Campbell's utterances (unless they involve the Clarets), but he's spot on.
Why cannot Tory high command see how badly they are shooting themselves in the foot?
Why do I get the feeling Bad Al doesn't have the Tories best interest's at heart?????
Of course he doesn't. I can normally get all outraged and argumentative when I hear Ali C because he's usually talking Labour partisan gibberish.
But on this. Spot on. That was my point - it's a bit unusual for me to agree with him, which kind of makes me think he might be right....
Given that a minority Labour government, held to ransom by the SNP, would be a disaster for the country, I think the Tory strategy of pointing that out is correct.
They should counter it with a little more "light" to go with all the "shade" but overall I think they are playing this week pretty well.
Ah, so majority Labour govt would be preferable?
There's very little little chance of a Labour majority with the losing most of their Scottish seats...
The chance is bigger than that suggested by Betfair odds mind, Labour's 326th seat - Aberconwy is 9-4 against for them.
4-9 Tories makes an attractive punt to my mind at any rate (Swing in Wales is lowish, and the new mini-Plaidgasm helps Con probably by eating Labour votes)
The Electoral Commission electorate data file is pretty confusing. Cross checking it with ONS electoral statistics file, it seems some of their 2014 electorate figures are actually December 2013 figures.
I heard a bit of Alastair Campbell being interviewed on the radio whilst I was out buying a sarnie at lunchtime. He was quite stridently (as ever) arguing that the Tories should be sticking to selling the Tory line and Tory policies in the GE campaign and Labour should do the same for theirs, and it was pathetic and desperate for the Tories to be articulating nothing of their message or policies and instead negatively scaremongering people into what it would be like if the SNP won loads of seats and held a Labour government to ransom, and that it demeaned them to have given up so completely that this was their only message.
It was an utterly compelling point, obviously correct, and I agreed with every word.
Not very often you'll see my saying that about Campbell's utterances (unless they involve the Clarets), but he's spot on.
Why cannot Tory high command see how badly they are shooting themselves in the foot?
Why do I get the feeling Bad Al doesn't have the Tories best interest's at heart?????
Of course he doesn't. I can normally get all outraged and argumentative when I hear Ali C because he's usually talking Labour partisan gibberish.
But on this. Spot on. That was my point - it's a bit unusual for me to agree with him, which kind of makes me think he might be right....
Given that a minority Labour government, held to ransom by the SNP, would be a disaster for the country, I think the Tory strategy of pointing that out is correct.
They should counter it with a little more "light" to go with all the "shade" but overall I think they are playing this week pretty well.
Ah, so majority Labour govt would be preferable?
There's very little little chance of a Labour majority with the losing most of their Scottish seats...
So you would advise the Scots to vote Labour to help Ed minimise his chances of letting the SNP hold him to ransom?
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) 21/04/2015 14:48 Sebastian Payne who has been on ground in Thanet writes: bit.ly/1aOm9un Dan Hodges who has not writes: bit.ly/1IBYbxO
Kipper comment from Hodges article, presented unedited in all it's batty glory for your enjoyment:
What the debate boiled down to was all the lefties against Nigel and had Cameron been there then it would have just been another lefty against Nigel. Dan misses the point that Everything Nigel said has been proven to be TRUE WITH SOME NOW AGREEING WITH HIM ON SOME POINTS and all of the hulabaloo of hissing like snakes in the grass at Nigel has proven to be totally unfounded and an attempt to hide the truth. Watch out for MASSIVE migration from AFRICA into the UK at the EU's orders and then the 250,000 Poles that are on the way during this next year, we have only seen the tip of immigration so far and if what the forecast for the future is holds true we can expect in excess of a million before next April. Watch how many BRITISH school kids aren't in school, watch crime levels EXPLODE. These Africans think of murder as a petty crime, rape and maiming as being normal, robbery as legal. True Brits won't be out after dark because the streets will belong to the criminals. ALL with Conbliblab's blessings. WE DESPERATELY NEED UKIP.
Is today's match in Grenada the first time England have played a Test there? I ought to know the answer but don't.
Yes, it is. They've also never won in Antigua, which was a good indicator, alongside the flat track, that they would fail in the last test (as a tidbit of hindsight) Now Jimmy has the record, expect him to go mental in this one, and back Cook to come good with the bat - he has a track record of starting golden runs on the back of disastrous ones.
That's a fascinating fact about Antigua. Although I see from Wikipedia that the ground has only been used for Tests since 1981.
Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."
Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.
But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???
Why not?
Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.
Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.
If individual registration has reduced the number of voters - as alleged - and so the size of the pot, then turn out is surely bound to increase as it will be a % of a smaller pot.
Isn't the question whether this (inevitable) late surge will make up the shortfall. It is probably just adding in people who are factored in already and so Labour will be down a net figure.
On the up side, if you have rushed to register, you have made some sort of emotional commitment to vote on the day
Forgive if this has been tackled down thread, but anything more than 50-70 comments taxes my attention span
Oh, and on a separate matter of the day. Never under estimate how much your average English football fan detests the Scots. Detest is the wrong word, it is an understatement, they hate them. The feeling is reciprocated, so it is ok. This reflects a broad opinion among many. For all the hand-ringing by Lord Forsyth, the SNP rise is good for the Tories. If they are looking for 3-5% from a weakening UKIP, then it is a good card to play
Therefore in terms of constituencies I've the following as biggest falls 2013-14
Cardiff Central Liverpool, Riverside Newcastle upon Tyne East Nottingham South Ceredigion City of Durham Loughborough York Central Brighton, Pavilion Leicester South Oxford East Reading East Coventry South Blackpool South Newcastle upon Tyne Central Swansea West8 Cities of London and Westminster Tottenham Salford and Eccles Hornsey and Wood Green
and the top gainers were
Edinburgh North and Leith East Devon Wellingborough Tonbridge and Malling Edinburgh South Northampton South Glasgow South North Cornwall Glasgow East Wantage Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Ashfield Workington Ludlow Hendon Edinburgh West Glasgow South West Shrewsbury and Atcham Mansfield Foyle
In the remote fastness of East Ham, we have now received leaflets (via Freepost) from the Conservatives, UKIP, Labour and the Communities United Party (worth looking up if you enjoy your obscure local politics). Nothing from the LDs, Greens or TUSC at this time.
Labour were leafletting at East Ham Station again yesterday but the Conservative campaign is much less visible than in 2010 when we had local elections at the same time. Haven't seen Labour out canvassing round here but I wonder if they are targetting areas like Ilford North.
Seven runners in East Ham, seven also in West Ham with the TUSC replaced by the Christian People's Alliance (remember them). Hard to see Lyn Brown having too many problems. There's also a Newham Council by-election in Stratford & New Town Ward - Labour won a narrow victory with 74% of the vote last year with the Conservatives on 21% so I'm not expecting much to change there though there have been some population changes up there and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Conservative vote move up a little.
In absolute terms of voters lost, the biggest drops
Cardiff Central -11.536 Liverpool, Riverside -11.338 Newcastle upon Tyne East -9.388 Nottingham South -8.903 Loughborough -8.490 City of Durham -8.422 York Central -8.251 Oxford East -8.080 Leicester South -7.824 Reading East -7.605 Brighton, Pavilion -7.503 Coventry South -7.029 Ceredigion -6.735 Salford and Eccles -6.339 Hornsey and Wood Green -6.304 Tottenham -5.712 Holborn and St Pancras -5.700 Blackpool South -5.645 Crewe and Nantwich -5.556 Manchester, Central -5.528
Gains
Edinburgh North and Leith 4482 East Devon 3.363 Wellingborough 3.092 Tonbridge and Malling 2.472 Wantage 2.145 Edinburgh South 2111 Glasgow South 2052 Northampton South 1.935 Ashfield 1.858 Glasgow East 1803 North Cornwall 1.746 Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 1.742 Hendon 1.715 Shrewsbury and Atcham 1.712 Edinburgh West 1665 Mansfield 1.610 Ludlow 1.575 Taunton Deane 1.516 Glasgow South West 1500 Foyle 1.457
Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."
Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.
But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???
Why not?
Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.
Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.
Anecdata: my parents live in Cumbria. My mum, not normally one for politics, brought up the SNP as "in it for themselves" and "they don't care about England" without prompting.
Leaving aside the obvious point that almost all politicians are in it for themselves, it shows it remains an issue a few miles from the border. If anything, when kids are getting a free university education and everyone is getting free prescriptions just a 10 minute drive away, the issue resonates even more...
If that is mainly students (the constituency has 2 universities Aber and Lampeter), then the LibDems may be in some trouble.
My travels around Ceredigion at the weekend did reveal lots of PC and LibDem activity -- and even a couple of billboards for "Tippex" Thomas, the Labour candidate who advocated spilling Tippex as simulated bird-sh1t on English cars.
If there is a Plaid-gasm (& surely even Plaid must have finally noticed what's going on in Scotland), then the vulnerable seats are Ynys Mon, Ceredigion and Llanelli (2 Lab, 1 LibDem).
Only seen Ukip boards, posters and billboards, nothing from anyone else and I live in the Tory part of town
Never bet on the back of number of boards / posters - they are not great indicators of actual levels of support.
Almost as many Tory posters up in Hallam as yellow peril ones...
I felt sorry for the enthusiastic 'yes' supporters who convinced themselves they were going to win last September because "noone around here has a 'no' poster up".
Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."
Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.
But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???
Why not?
Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.
Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.
Anecdata: my parents live in Cumbria. My mum, not normally one for politics, brought up the SNP as "in it for themselves" and "they don't care about England" without prompting.
Leaving aside the obvious point that almost all politicians are in it for themselves, it shows it remains an issue a few miles from the border. If anything, when kids are getting a free university education and everyone is getting free prescriptions just a 10 minute drive away, the issue resonates even more...
So why don't kids get free University education ? or even £3000 or £6000.
Bury the Austerity bullshit ! Go on, Nicola. Make sure Labour does their job !
"You do know that Clegg is not in the Labour Party."
Cleggy is doing his tight rope act. Only the LDs can form a proper coalition without blackmailing them. Cleggy is saying the same thing but from a different perspective to Bad Al.
In some seats with a big drop, the fall could potentially hit LDs as much as Labour with the other parties not competitive, therefore being neutral. Same Brighton Pavillion. Some other seats are too safe anyway.
Nottingham South, Loughborough, York Central, Coventry South, Blackpool South and Crewe is where it can have a partisan impact.
Labour had strong local results in Nottingham (South included) recently. I guess those who bother to vote in the locals are likely to remember to register individually. York Central is actually safish on paper but Labour run local council doesn't have a good reputation.
"You do know that Clegg is not in the Labour Party."
Cleggy is doing his tight rope act. Only the LDs can form a proper coalition without blackmailing them. Cleggy is saying the same thing but from a different perspective to Bad Al.
I'll write slower in the future.
The Yellows will not join any coalition. The party won't wear it. Cleggy won't be there anyway. He can do very little from the House of Lords.
Satire is indeed not dead, when we have the spectacle of Alastair Campbell, of all people on this earth, complaining about what he sees as negative campaigning.
It's interesting to see what the reaction will be to all these old faces turning up.
I'm not too sure Ed will want Al "45 Minutes" Campbell all over the news, if only that some off-message journo will ask him about the delays to Chilcot and Blair. However it could also be said that he limited the damage somewhat in 2010, perhaps even prevented a Tory majority.
Major is the opposite, he strikes me as a genuine elder statesman but to some will remind only of 1990s Tory "Sleaze", of Mrs Currie, and the word used by Mr Ashdown earlier to describe troublesome backbenchers.
In some seats with a big drop, the fall could potentially hit LDs as much as Labour with the other parties not competitive, therefore being neutral. Same Brighton Pavillion. Some other seats are too safe anyway.
Nottingham South, Loughborough, York Central, Coventry South, Blackpool South and Crewe is where it can have a partisan impact.
Labour had strong local results in Nottingham (South included) recently. I guess those who bother to vote in the locals are likely to remember to register individually. York Central is actually safish on paper but Labour run local council doesn't have a good reputation.
In some seats with a big drop, the fall could potentially hit LDs as much as Labour with the other parties not competitive, therefore being neutral. Same Brighton Pavillion. Some other seats are too safe anyway.
Nottingham South, Loughborough, York Central, Coventry South, Blackpool South and Crewe is where it can have a partisan impact.
Labour had strong local results in Nottingham (South included) recently. I guess those who bother to vote in the locals are likely to remember to register individually. York Central is actually safish on paper but Labour run local council doesn't have a good reputation.
I think the drop in numbers would help Labour in Nottingham South and Loughborough, due to the demographics of the students that populate those two Universities.
I apologise in advance for any future posts of mine quoting totally underwhelming/uninteresting polls and saying "the day the polls turned". For some reason I find it much funnier than it actually is
Plaid must have noticed...but it depends if Cymru have!
If they vote by political parties, Ynys Mon should go Plaid as they put up strong performances in Assembly by-election and local elections. However it's a particular place where personalities can play a role...it depends on how much personal vote the Labour MP has. If he wins, I think it will be because of him rather than the Labour label.
If there is a Plaid-gasm (& surely even Plaid must have finally noticed what's going on in Scotland), then the vulnerable seats are Ynys Mon, Ceredigion and Llanelli (2 Lab, 1 LibDem).
Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.
April showers? Seems more like summer. Of course one month's data, one set of floods or droughts doesn't actually prove anything, they're just indications. It's always puzzled me how intelligent people seem to think that their opinions on AGW really amount to much. The scientific evidence is convincing and is being refined all the time, scientists try to get ever closer to the facts in this field as in any other. You may be right about the majority opinion on PB, luckily they're not running the country. To those who deny (sorry are sceptical about) AGW, just swap to LED bulbs because they'll save you 80% of your electricity bill. This in turn is 20% of your energy bill, which averages around £1,200/yr, so you'd save £240/year, every year. Don't do it for the planet, do it for your pocket.
The scientific evidence for what? That human activity has some effect on climate? I don't know of anyone who disputes that.
The debate is about whether modelling of a system as complex and chaotic as the climate can produce predictions more accurate than a coin-flip. If you think it can, please name just one other complex and chaotic system where it can.
@logical_song Oh look, you have had nearly an hour to answer a very straightforward question and come up blank. And now you look like a patronising twit.
In some seats with a big drop, the fall could potentially hit LDs as much as Labour with the other parties not competitive, therefore being neutral. Same Brighton Pavillion. Some other seats are too safe anyway.
Nottingham South, Loughborough, York Central, Coventry South, Blackpool South and Crewe is where it can have a partisan impact.
Labour had strong local results in Nottingham (South included) recently. I guess those who bother to vote in the locals are likely to remember to register individually. York Central is actually safish on paper but Labour run local council doesn't have a good reputation.
As Loughborough students are a load of Tory Engineers, the drop could be good news for Labour.
In absolute terms of voters lost, the biggest drops
Cardiff Central -11.536 Liverpool, Riverside -11.338 Newcastle upon Tyne East -9.388 Nottingham South -8.903 Loughborough -8.490 City of Durham -8.422 York Central -8.251 Oxford East -8.080 Leicester South -7.824 Reading East -7.605 Brighton, Pavilion -7.503 Coventry South -7.029 Ceredigion -6.735 Salford and Eccles -6.339 Hornsey and Wood Green -6.304 Tottenham -5.712 Holborn and St Pancras -5.700 Blackpool South -5.645 Crewe and Nantwich -5.556 Manchester, Central -5.528
Gains
Edinburgh North and Leith 4482 East Devon 3.363 Wellingborough 3.092 Tonbridge and Malling 2.472 Wantage 2.145 Edinburgh South 2111 Glasgow South 2052 Northampton South 1.935 Ashfield 1.858 Glasgow East 1803 North Cornwall 1.746 Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 1.742 Hendon 1.715 Shrewsbury and Atcham 1.712 Edinburgh West 1665 Mansfield 1.610 Ludlow 1.575 Taunton Deane 1.516 Glasgow South West 1500 Foyle 1.457
Has anyone computed a minimum vote score for each party - assuming parties in 2nd place and below get the same vote but the winning party gets 1 more vote than 2nd place what would the party vote totals be on both an absolute and percentage basis.
Satire is indeed not dead, when we have the spectacle of Alastair Campbell, of all people on this earth, complaining about what he sees as negative campaigning.
It's interesting to see what the reaction will be to all these old faces turning up.
I'm not too sure Ed will want Al "45 Minutes" Campbell all over the news, if only that some off-message journo will ask him about the delays to Chilcot and Blair. However it could also be said that he limited the damage somewhat in 2010, perhaps even prevented a Tory majority.
Major is the opposite, he strikes me as a genuine elder statesman but to some will remind only of 1990s Tory "Sleaze", of Mrs Currie, and the word used by Mr Ashdown earlier to describe troublesome backbenchers.
Alistair Campbell was cracking in 2010, he wound up Adam Boulton a treat .
In some seats with a big drop, the fall could potentially hit LDs as much as Labour with the other parties not competitive, therefore being neutral. Same Brighton Pavillion. Some other seats are too safe anyway.
Nottingham South, Loughborough, York Central, Coventry South, Blackpool South and Crewe is where it can have a partisan impact.
Labour had strong local results in Nottingham (South included) recently. I guess those who bother to vote in the locals are likely to remember to register individually. York Central is actually safish on paper but Labour run local council doesn't have a good reputation.
I think the drop in numbers would help Labour in Nottingham South and Loughborough, due to the demographics of the students that populate those two Universities.
There are two universities in Nottingham -- I believe that it is Nottingham Trent (the former Trent Poly) who have a large chunk of their campus in Nottingham South
Anyway I am pleased that Labour has finally got it's act together to counter the Tory scaremongering of the SNP as the grubby, opportunistic, calculated, divisive, politics it actually is.
And rolling out Sir John. I think most people are still scarred by the appalling mental images of him banging Edwina rather than saying anything of note. No amount of mind bleach has managed to erase that from my head, and I've tried.
How much mind bleach is needed for Prescott and all the other Labour MPs and ministers who had affairs?
I wonder what will happen to the SNP if they don't end up in coalition or in some sort of arrangement with Labour. Some of their younger MPs might get fed up sitting on the opposition benches doing nothing very much, except rubbing shoulders with Labour MPs who detest them. We could have a few by-elections after a couple of years.
You are joking , only ones that ever leave Westminster are either dying , caught at it , or senile. Once they get at the trough they cannot be dragged away ,, sure the SNP will be no different. Especially if young , free subsidised booze and food , easy hours , only need to run up and vote when the bell rings and pots and pots of free money with 5 years salary straight into your bank account minimum.
In some seats with a big drop, the fall could potentially hit LDs as much as Labour with the other parties not competitive, therefore being neutral. Same Brighton Pavillion. Some other seats are too safe anyway.
Nottingham South, Loughborough, York Central, Coventry South, Blackpool South and Crewe is where it can have a partisan impact.
Labour had strong local results in Nottingham (South included) recently. I guess those who bother to vote in the locals are likely to remember to register individually. York Central is actually safish on paper but Labour run local council doesn't have a good reputation.
I hate Nottingham the denizens keep voting Labour every election year in year out and the place becomes more and more of a shithole. Broxtowe Estate must be up there with anything Liverpool can offer now and that couldn't be less of a compliment.
It'll be interesting to see if Labour is able to turn the nature of the campaign to their advantage in England and Wales in the same way that the SNP did during the indy ref. Surely everyone's going to be bored of the Tories gabbing on about the SNP from now until the election, so a "look at how negative their campaigning is/they've got nothing to say" line might actually work.
Then again, Labour aren't nearly as good at that kind of thing as the SNP proved themselves.
In some seats with a big drop, the fall could potentially hit LDs as much as Labour with the other parties not competitive, therefore being neutral. Same Brighton Pavillion. Some other seats are too safe anyway.
Nottingham South, Loughborough, York Central, Coventry South, Blackpool South and Crewe is where it can have a partisan impact.
Labour had strong local results in Nottingham (South included) recently. I guess those who bother to vote in the locals are likely to remember to register individually. York Central is actually safish on paper but Labour run local council doesn't have a good reputation.
I hate Nottingham the denizens keep voting Labour every election year in year out
In some seats with a big drop, the fall could potentially hit LDs as much as Labour with the other parties not competitive, therefore being neutral. Same Brighton Pavillion. Some other seats are too safe anyway.
Nottingham South, Loughborough, York Central, Coventry South, Blackpool South and Crewe is where it can have a partisan impact.
Labour had strong local results in Nottingham (South included) recently. I guess those who bother to vote in the locals are likely to remember to register individually. York Central is actually safish on paper but Labour run local council doesn't have a good reputation.
I hate Nottingham the denizens keep voting Labour every election year in year out
Comments
Forty plus MPs with a grievance I can understand, So does Labour really think that Ukip will have forty MPs like the SNP?
As you are now re-tweeting and quoting Dan Hodges in the Telegraph, I think we can be confident that the Conservative campaign is in real trouble and they are getting ready to embrace Opposition.
Hove; Brighton Kemptown
The second [straw to clutch at] is that Labour’s position in Scotland doesn’t prove to be as dire as everyone suspects. “The one thing I’m clinging to is the record of the Scottish Labour party in predicting election results”, one shadow cabinet member told me. “Every recent election they’ve predicted we’d do well, and every time they been shown to be totally and utterly wrong. This time they’re telling us 'we’re screwed up here'. And that gives me some hope.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11552484/The-SNP-threat-is-not-going-anywhere.-Conservative-campaign-chiefs-must-be-delighted.html
Now Jimmy has the record, expect him to go mental in this one, and back Cook to come good with the bat - he has a track record of starting golden runs on the back of disastrous ones.
Conservative leaflet received today
Slightly oddly it is a3 folded into 4... The front page is a big photo of 'ANGELA WATKINSON for Hornchurch & Upminster'
The back page 'ANGELA WATKINSON YOUR NEXT MP'
I say odd as it doesn't mention the Conservative party and also because she already is my MP
It opens up to A3 size and we have a lot of text about what Angela will do...and much is made of the EU referendum
Who should govern our country - BRUSSELS OR BRITAIN?
Who should control our immigration - BRUSSELS OR BRITAIN?
Conservative brand mentioned two or three times and small logo in corner
Leads me to believe the Tories think Ukip are capable of taking the seat.. We've had a couple of surveys last year from 'angela' asking who we would vote for...
8/1 - 10/1 Ukip I think... Looking more likely than I had hoped for given the boards up etc
It was on my second tier of Ukip possibles for people who are interested... Ukip+BNP 2010 was 11.7%
I also see that Tower Hamlets is equal top in suffering an annual fall in additional names going on the register.
2nd is going to be between NHA, UKIP & Lab - 20% might be enough to clinch it. Anyone with local knowledge?
Entertaining stuff
Unless they have a postal vote they may also find they are not in the constituency on the day of voting and can not vote.
Also they should be concentrating on exams in May.
So expect the student vote to drop.
https://twitter.com/SimonDanczuk/status/590184411393564672
4-9 Tories makes an attractive punt to my mind at any rate (Swing in Wales is lowish, and the new mini-Plaidgasm helps Con probably by eating Labour votes)
The survey also had questions on Cameron's successor so look out for that.
So the ONS file is more up to date.
The SNP have made the Scottish people feel it is the English who have become the victims of the Scots.
This is hard to counter if you are a UK wide party like Labour, Conservative or Lib Dem.
21/04/2015 14:48
Sebastian Payne who has been on ground in Thanet writes:
bit.ly/1aOm9un
Dan Hodges who has not writes:
bit.ly/1IBYbxO
What the debate boiled down to was all the lefties against Nigel and had Cameron been there then it would have just been another lefty against Nigel.
Dan misses the point that Everything Nigel said has been proven to be TRUE WITH SOME NOW AGREEING WITH HIM ON SOME POINTS and all of the hulabaloo of hissing like snakes in the grass at Nigel has proven to be totally unfounded and an attempt to hide the truth.
Watch out for MASSIVE migration from AFRICA into the UK at the EU's orders and then the 250,000 Poles that are on the way during this next year, we have only seen the tip of immigration so far and if what the forecast for the future is holds true we can expect in excess of a million before next April. Watch how many BRITISH school kids aren't in school, watch crime levels EXPLODE. These Africans think of murder as a petty crime, rape and maiming as being normal, robbery as legal. True Brits won't be out after dark because the streets will belong to the criminals. ALL with Conbliblab's blessings.
WE DESPERATELY NEED UKIP.
Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.
Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.
Isn't the question whether this (inevitable) late surge will make up the shortfall. It is probably just adding in people who are factored in already and so Labour will be down a net figure.
On the up side, if you have rushed to register, you have made some sort of emotional commitment to vote on the day
Forgive if this has been tackled down thread, but anything more than 50-70 comments taxes my attention span
Oh, and on a separate matter of the day. Never under estimate how much your average English football fan detests the Scots. Detest is the wrong word, it is an understatement, they hate them. The feeling is reciprocated, so it is ok. This reflects a broad opinion among many. For all the hand-ringing by Lord Forsyth, the SNP rise is good for the Tories. If they are looking for 3-5% from a weakening UKIP, then it is a good card to play
Cardiff Central
Liverpool, Riverside
Newcastle upon Tyne East
Nottingham South
Ceredigion
City of Durham
Loughborough
York Central
Brighton, Pavilion
Leicester South
Oxford East
Reading East
Coventry South
Blackpool South
Newcastle upon Tyne Central
Swansea West8
Cities of London and Westminster
Tottenham
Salford and Eccles
Hornsey and Wood Green
and the top gainers were
Edinburgh North and Leith
East Devon
Wellingborough
Tonbridge and Malling
Edinburgh South
Northampton South
Glasgow South
North Cornwall
Glasgow East
Wantage
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Ashfield
Workington
Ludlow
Hendon
Edinburgh West
Glasgow South West
Shrewsbury and Atcham
Mansfield
Foyle
In the remote fastness of East Ham, we have now received leaflets (via Freepost) from the Conservatives, UKIP, Labour and the Communities United Party (worth looking up if you enjoy your obscure local politics). Nothing from the LDs, Greens or TUSC at this time.
Labour were leafletting at East Ham Station again yesterday but the Conservative campaign is much less visible than in 2010 when we had local elections at the same time. Haven't seen Labour out canvassing round here but I wonder if they are targetting areas like Ilford North.
Seven runners in East Ham, seven also in West Ham with the TUSC replaced by the Christian People's Alliance (remember them). Hard to see Lyn Brown having too many problems. There's also a Newham Council by-election in Stratford & New Town Ward - Labour won a narrow victory with 74% of the vote last year with the Conservatives on 21% so I'm not expecting much to change there though there have been some population changes up there and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Conservative vote move up a little.
LAB 34% (+2), CON 32% (-2), LIB DEM 8% (-1), UKIP 15% (+1), GREEN 5% (0), OTHER 6% (+1)
http://tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/no-party-has-made-a-clear-break
Are postal votes already available ?
To be honest the Tory leaflet was the final straw for me to tiptoe from hope to mild anticipation
Cardiff Central -11.536
Liverpool, Riverside -11.338
Newcastle upon Tyne East -9.388
Nottingham South -8.903
Loughborough -8.490
City of Durham -8.422
York Central -8.251
Oxford East -8.080
Leicester South -7.824
Reading East -7.605
Brighton, Pavilion -7.503
Coventry South -7.029
Ceredigion -6.735
Salford and Eccles -6.339
Hornsey and Wood Green -6.304
Tottenham -5.712
Holborn and St Pancras -5.700
Blackpool South -5.645
Crewe and Nantwich -5.556
Manchester, Central -5.528
Gains
Edinburgh North and Leith 4482
East Devon 3.363
Wellingborough 3.092
Tonbridge and Malling 2.472
Wantage 2.145
Edinburgh South 2111
Glasgow South 2052
Northampton South 1.935
Ashfield 1.858
Glasgow East 1803
North Cornwall 1.746
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 1.742
Hendon 1.715
Shrewsbury and Atcham 1.712
Edinburgh West 1665
Mansfield 1.610
Ludlow 1.575
Taunton Deane 1.516
Glasgow South West 1500
Foyle 1.457
Leaving aside the obvious point that almost all politicians are in it for themselves, it shows it remains an issue a few miles from the border. If anything, when kids are getting a free university education and everyone is getting free prescriptions just a 10 minute drive away, the issue resonates even more...
Ceredigion -12% -6,988
If that is mainly students (the constituency has 2 universities Aber and Lampeter), then the LibDems may be in some trouble.
My travels around Ceredigion at the weekend did reveal lots of PC and LibDem activity -- and even a couple of billboards for "Tippex" Thomas, the Labour candidate who advocated spilling Tippex as simulated bird-sh1t on English cars.
If there is a Plaid-gasm (& surely even Plaid must have finally noticed what's going on in Scotland), then the vulnerable seats are Ynys Mon, Ceredigion and Llanelli (2 Lab, 1 LibDem).
Sunshine, blue skies and a Labour lead. Not a bad afternoon!
Bury the Austerity bullshit ! Go on, Nicola. Make sure Labour does their job !
"You do know that Clegg is not in the Labour Party."
Cleggy is doing his tight rope act. Only the LDs can form a proper coalition without blackmailing them. Cleggy is saying the same thing but from a different perspective to Bad Al.
I'll write slower in the future.
Nottingham South, Loughborough, York Central, Coventry South, Blackpool South and Crewe is where it can have a partisan impact.
Labour had strong local results in Nottingham (South included) recently. I guess those who bother to vote in the locals are likely to remember to register individually.
York Central is actually safish on paper but Labour run local council doesn't have a good reputation.
I'm not too sure Ed will want Al "45 Minutes" Campbell all over the news, if only that some off-message journo will ask him about the delays to Chilcot and Blair. However it could also be said that he limited the damage somewhat in 2010, perhaps even prevented a Tory majority.
Major is the opposite, he strikes me as a genuine elder statesman but to some will remind only of 1990s Tory "Sleaze", of Mrs Currie, and the word used by Mr Ashdown earlier to describe troublesome backbenchers.
English public warming to prospect of Nicola calling the shots, clearly.
For example, from my own friends & colleagues, I have noticed that very affluent Labour voters often put billboards up.
For example, an acquaintance whose son is being expensively educated at Eton has his (Cambridge) front garden festooned in Labour posters.
I think it is actually a form of protective mimicry, familiar from the theory of evolution.
Dave is on for about 400 seats if that drops !
Cameron did the Labour Party a huge favour by getting Sturgeon in the debates. Apart from the Tory types, most people agrees with her.
If they vote by political parties, Ynys Mon should go Plaid as they put up strong performances in Assembly by-election and local elections. However it's a particular place where personalities can play a role...it depends on how much personal vote the Labour MP has. If he wins, I think it will be because of him rather than the Labour label.
Keep studying Ther Science.
The best test of the way the political wind is blowing
Cons -6
Lab -3
UKIP +6
LD+2
Green -4
Has anyone computed a minimum vote score for each party - assuming parties in 2nd place and below get the same vote but the winning party gets 1 more vote than 2nd place what would the party vote totals be on both an absolute and percentage basis.
... UKIP 15% (+1) ..."
*Waves at FoxInSox*
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/21/election-2015-live-labour-john-major-blackmail-snp-nicola-sturgeon-ed-miliband
Then again, Labour aren't nearly as good at that kind of thing as the SNP proved themselves.