Anyway if we think Andrew M-W is embarrassing, what has come out about the Norwegian Crown Princess and her son, currently facing 38 charges, 4 of them for rape, and Epstein is far worse.
Her son has no royal blood unlike Andrew, he is from a previous marriage before she married Crown Prince Haakon with a convicted drug dealer
Dear me. Look at the allegations about the Crown Princess.
You wonder what Haakon thought his wife was up to whilst he was away opening hospitals and meeting pensioners on state visits
Likewise why on earth did no one from the UK Royal household think it wise to have the Duke of York hang about the UK more/try to help the family name rather than go on jollies to Epstein island constantly. I guess that's the late Queens soft spot for her son shining through, and its going to bite them on the backside.
The obvious post release deletion in the most recent dump of documents and the hypocrisy from the US authorities in being reticent to go after individuals in their own country will ensure this row rumbles on.
King Chuck isn't getting much luck with his brother - you wonder how much the rest of the royals knew what was going on?
No more than most of the American wealthy elite and half the British elite who socialised with Epstein knew I expect and the King never even met him
That's my thoughts as well. But given the prompt post release deletion of certain files, its unlikely that everyone who needs to face justice will have further questioning before the Donald departs the scene.
If the Crown ever do a season 7 (or whatever number its at) the episodes with Prince Andrew jetting back from the US getting harassed by his maw what he was up to need top billing
Say what you like about the Royals, when the shit hits the fan (yet again) over the Epstein files, they just make a surprise visit to a parkrun rather than send a carrier force to Iran.
Absolutely nothing confirmed and currently zero on the mainstream TV channels. But news of multiple bombings targeting IRGC strongholds is flooding in on the Telegram channels. At the risk of sounding like Gillette soccer Saturday, these are the cities:
Bandar Abbas Ahvaz Khorramshahr Abadan Qasr-e Shirin Parand Qeshm Dezful Reports of explosions in places like Qeshm and at the Qom Governor's Office building.
Just to cover my tracks currently waiting for Chris Kamara to verify.
So what sparked the recent unrest in Iran? Could it have been foreign interference? My Dad has these books in his office room I read when I was small, where, before Sov Bloc attacked Mega City One, they sowed chaos and lawlessness in Mega City One, to soften it up and it take its eye off what they were up to.
Block Mania. Still never forgave Orlok for killing Judge Giant
1) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? 7 2) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? 3 3) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 53 4) Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 38 5) UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage (British Polling Council registered pollsters only)? Reform, 14% lead. 6) Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 15% 7) Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 12 8) The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Keir Starmer 9) Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No 10) UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025)? £135.6bn 11) UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025)? 0.9% 12) Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup? France
If the Dems gain 3 Senate seats, then I can't see how they aren't +20 in the House.
(Although I guess Alaska is a complete wildcard.)
This is the danger of trying to predict things I don't really understand. I've fairly little interest in US politics beyond a bit of ammused rubber-necking at stuff like their complete inability to organise efficient elections (I mean, how badly run is it that it isn't usually obvious who will be president by 3am the morning after the vote?), so I hate questions like these.
I much preferred last years game of guessing the UK polling highs and lows for the main parties, at which it turns out I was reasonably good (if less good at submitting my answers in the right order!).
It would be fine with me if you were to keep Andrew in the UK. (He's more your problem than ours, in my not entirely humble opinion.)
If I recall correctly, US citizens can be tried -- in the US -- for sex with underage individuals in foreign nations. Does the UK have a similar law?
Yes. You may be aware of the UK 1970's pop star and paedophile "Gary Glitter" (Paul Gadd). He was one of the first celebrities to be exposed as a paedophile after he gave his laptop to a computer shop. If memory serves his child sex activities included Thailand, and anti-child-sex legislation was expanded to include offences outside the UK jurisdictions.
Some of you may be a fan of the 1990s nuclear war TV movie "By Dawn's Early Light". The original contains scene with a B52 crew and the relationships and disputes between the crew. This introduced a soapy element into what was otherwise a classic Cold War procedural. Somebody has gone to the bother of removing these scenes, and the resultant cut is called "By Dawn's Early Light: The Command And Control Cut". It is a concise 57-minutes long and it is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHOD4DMpP-o
Some of you may be a fan of the 1990s nuclear war TV movie "By Dawn's Early Light". The original contains scene with a B52 crew and the relationships and disputes between the crew. This introduced a soapy element into what was otherwise a classic Cold War procedural. Somebody has gone to the bother of removing these scenes, and the resultant cut is called "By Dawn's Early Light: The Command And Control Cut". It is a concise 57-minutes long and it is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHOD4DMpP-o
I have to confess the only show I know of with that name is the excellent Columbo episode starring Patrick McGoohan.
Is this photo of Andrew the point at which he meets with an unfortunate "accident" ?
Surely the British State can't allow this to go on much longer?
What should be done? It’s unclear that you can secure a successful prosecution, so what do you think should happen? He’s clearly very skeezy, but you need solid evidence of a specific crime.
It's not for me to judge or decide anything... But we all know how this is going to end don't we?
Obviously you can't have the son of her late Majesty QEII and the brother of the King testifying in a US court under Oath, about alleged sex crimes.
The Establishment/State will just want this all to go away... There's only one way to make that happen really, isn't there?
Remember, Di was bumped off just for partying with the Al Fayeds for a Summer... So... Well... I dunno but I wouldn't want to be AMW life insurance agent at this point... 😂
No she was killed by a drunk speeding driver being chased by paps
How convenient for all concerned, wasn't it... 😂
It was decidedly inconvenient for the driver, who was the person who could have prevented it from happening.
1) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? 7 2) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? 3 3) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 53 4) Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 38 5) UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage (British Polling Council registered pollsters only)? Reform, 14% lead. 6) Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 15% 7) Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 12 8) The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Keir Starmer 9) Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No 10) UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025)? £135.6bn 11) UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025)? 0.9% 12) Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup? France
If the Dems gain 3 Senate seats, then I can't see how they aren't +20 in the House.
(Although I guess Alaska is a complete wildcard.)
Dems lose Georgia, NH and Michigan but gain Avannaata, Kujalleq, Qeqertalik, Qeqqata, Sermersooq and Northeast Greenland National Park
Anyway if we think Andrew M-W is embarrassing, what has come out about the Norwegian Crown Princess and her son, currently facing 38 charges, 4 of them for rape, and Epstein is far worse.
Prior to her marrying the Crown Prince, she had been in several relationships with drug-trafficking gangsters, one of whom fathered her son, now standing trial.
I find it impossible to fathom how the Norwegian government or royal family could have allowed that marriage. And, impossible to believe that she can be queen, especially in light of her dealings with Epstein.
I think you're mixing up two different people ?
The Epstein princess, according to the BBC report, is the Crown Prince's older sister (who lost her royal title in 2024).
The Prince's wife has nothing to do with Epstein (and is seriously ill, awaiting a lung transplant).
Anyway if we think Andrew M-W is embarrassing, what has come out about the Norwegian Crown Princess and her son, currently facing 38 charges, 4 of them for rape, and Epstein is far worse.
Prior to her marrying the Crown Prince, she had been in several relationships with drug-trafficking gangsters, one of whom fathered her son, now standing trial.
I find it impossible to fathom how the Norwegian government or royal family could have allowed that marriage. And, impossible to believe that she can be queen, especially in light of her dealings with Epstein.
I think you're mixing up two different people ?
The Epstein princess, according to the BBC report, is the Crown Prince's older sister (who lost her royal title in 2024).
The Prince's wife has nothing to do with Epstein (and is seriously ill, awaiting a lung transplant).
Never mind the quality, feel the width. This is the rule when it comes to defectors from the Tories to Reform. Mr Farage is gambling that he gains more from the impression of momentum supplied by defectors than he loses from the damage they do to his claim to represent a clean break with the “establishment” parties.
His rivals think he is making a mistake in allowing his party to turn into a recycling centre for Tory waste products. Labour sniffs an opportunity. Labour people are encouraged by Reform’s choice of candidate, Matthew Goodwin, whose politics are sufficiently noxious to have received the endorsement of the far-right agitator, Tommy Robinson.
[For the Tories, these] departures create space for Mrs Badenoch to broaden her party’s appeal and rebuild the Conservatives around their traditional, often highly successful, calling cards with the electorate. They have an advantage over both Labour and Reform when voters are asked which party they prefer on taxes, the national debt, investment and job creation.
There’s a gap in the market for a centre-right party that appeals to voters who think Labour is overtaxing them while also believing that Reform can’t be trusted with the economy. It is this gap that is addressed by Prosper UK, the new grouping launched by Sir Andy Street…and Baroness Ruth Davidson. Their prospectus highlights fiscal responsibility, encouraging enterprise and free trade: quintessential Tory themes with a past record of appealing to many Britons. Yet rather than welcome their contribution, Mrs Badenoch foolishly chose to blow a raspberry at them. The popping sound you can hear is the champagne corks flying at Lib Dem campaign HQ.
You know which Vice President stopped talking about Epstein, since 2021 ?
Remember when we learned that our wealthiest and most powerful people were connected to a guy who ran a literal child sex trafficking ring? And then that guy died mysteriously in a jail? And now we just don't talk about it. https://x.com/JDVance/status/1434146390217736192
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
Good morning, everyone.
It was a few years ago but I still remember south Wales getting a foot of snow. London had an inch, apparently, a reporter 'on the spot' claiming traffic had ground to the halt (as cars moved behind him), and that was given way more coverage.
On MS predictions, I went back to check and mine is mid-20s. In my defence, I know sod all about most elections compared to everyone else here
It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss, and flip Texas SD-9, a seat held by Republicans for 35 years and carried by Trump by 17 points in 2024. https://x.com/travisakers/status/2017785295853236311
A Spanish politician from Podemos rants about how she wants to replace facsists with immigrants. Amusingly, the Spanish slang term for facsist sounds like Fatcha.
It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss, and flip Texas SD-9, a seat held by Republicans for 35 years and carried by Trump by 17 points in 2024. https://x.com/travisakers/status/2017785295853236311
Also, Wambsganss is a real name then ?
Latest vote count:
Dem 57.2% Rep 42.8%
The Dems have today won a seat by 14% which Trump won by 17% in 2024.
Result appears final - though worth noting turnout was only 15%.
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
*Anxiously checks prediction*
Oh I predicted 41. Looking forward to being completely wrong but in good company.
It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss, and flip Texas SD-9, a seat held by Republicans for 35 years and carried by Trump by 17 points in 2024. https://x.com/travisakers/status/2017785295853236311
Also, Wambsganss is a real name then ?
Latest vote count:
Dem 57.2% Rep 42.8%
The Dems have today won a seat by 14% which Trump won by 17% in 2024.
Result appears final - though worth noting turnout was only 15%.
Wasn’t George 3 more constrained by parliament than Trump is constrained?
I'm not sure that George III was a great mover on policy wrt America. I'd lay the blame foursquare on Parliament.
Interesting that by the late 18th century it was easier to rally opposition by blaming the Monarch, rather than his advisors, in a reversal of the previous pattern in times medieval and early modern.
I think George III's most significant political intervention was in blocking much of the proposed Catholic Emancipation at the time of the Act of Union with Ireland, which isn't a great legacy, though you could argue it was a matter of him taking his Coronation Oath seriously.
No, it was definitely the King. He was putting heavy pressure on North to continue the war and refuse any sort of concessions from the outset, even though North knew this was a bad idea.
And when North resigned the King's determination to freeze the leading Whigs out of government led to two years of crisis, which saw him try first Shelburne and then Pitt the Younger as First Lord despite the overwhelming support in the Commons for the Foxite Whigs. He turfed out the Portland ministry, for example, by telling the House of Lords 'anyone who votes for this bill is not only not the King's friend, but will be considered by him to be an enemy - and if that word is not strong enough, they may assume the King means any other word stronger and more to the purpose [i.e. traitor].' He was a bit fortunate that the reckless decision of Fox to ally with the discredited North led to the collapse of his faction in the 1784 election.
It was also the King who caused a series of crises in the 1800s over Catholic emancipation and his meddling over peace deals with France, which forced Pitt, then Addington, then Grenville from office.
And it was the King who consistently blocked any attempt by Pitt at Parliamentary reform from 1785 onwards.
George had on his side that when he wasn't suffering from bouts of madness/illness he was both bright and very popular personally. But he was determined to rule as well as reign and that was problematic in the arrangements of 18th century Britain.
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
Wasn’t that the ‘just guess a number’ question? ;’
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
The lowest was 11, by somebody with three posts - not sure whether a lurker or a Saturday visitor.
My reaction was much the same as yours. I'm bearish on Plaid seats but I can't see how they possibly go below 30 in the current climate.
It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss, and flip Texas SD-9, a seat held by Republicans for 35 years and carried by Trump by 17 points in 2024. https://x.com/travisakers/status/2017785295853236311
Also, Wambsganss is a real name then ?
Latest vote count:
Dem 57.2% Rep 42.8%
The Dems have today won a seat by 14% which Trump won by 17% in 2024.
Result appears final - though worth noting turnout was only 15%.
One problem with Gerrymandering is that there is a point in swing where large numbers of seats flip.
There is a suggestion the Texas gerrymander could backfire spectacularly if the Hispanic votes for Trump it was predicated on either abstain or flip this time around.
That does however presuppose Greg Abbott, a man who has repeatedly demonstrated he thinks laws don't apply to Republican governors, will allow fair elections.
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
*Anxiously checks prediction*
Oh I predicted 41. Looking forward to being completely wrong but in good company.
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
The lowest was 11, by somebody with three posts - not sure whether a lurker or a Saturday visitor.
My reaction was much the same as yours. I'm bearish on Plaid seats but I can't see how they possibly go below 30 in the current climate.
11 - that is a number that Labour and Tories could reach for but beyond the wildest dreams of Lib Dems...
It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss, and flip Texas SD-9, a seat held by Republicans for 35 years and carried by Trump by 17 points in 2024. https://x.com/travisakers/status/2017785295853236311
Also, Wambsganss is a real name then ?
Latest vote count:
Dem 57.2% Rep 42.8%
The Dems have today won a seat by 14% which Trump won by 17% in 2024.
Result appears final - though worth noting turnout was only 15%.
One problem with Gerrymandering is that there is a point in swing where large numbers of seats flip.
AND That point moves. If the electorate wants change but change is denied because of an unfair electoral system then the pressure builds for change and so there is a bigger shift in the electorate itself. This shows itself all the time but is rarely remarked upon. A good example would be the next election where at least in theory (but I don't believe it myself) the present government would gerrymander the system to their own advantage and so they might just hold on. Now if that did happen then that truely would be the end of Labour AND its sympathisers. But if there is a Farage / Con government then support for the right will fall pretty quickly. If bizarrely there is a very hung parliament with the LDs in charge and maybe with the PM then I doubt the LDs will ever recover.
One of the biggest problems for the left is they are unable to distinguish between equality and fairness. They think that an equal society is a fair society - it certainly isn't.
It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss, and flip Texas SD-9, a seat held by Republicans for 35 years and carried by Trump by 17 points in 2024. https://x.com/travisakers/status/2017785295853236311
Also, Wambsganss is a real name then ?
Latest vote count:
Dem 57.2% Rep 42.8%
The Dems have today won a seat by 14% which Trump won by 17% in 2024.
Result appears final - though worth noting turnout was only 15%.
One problem with Gerrymandering is that there is a point in swing where large numbers of seats flip.
AND That point moves. If the electorate wants change but change is denied because of an unfair electoral system then the pressure builds for change and so there is a bigger shift in the electorate itself. This shows itself all the time but is rarely remarked upon. A good example would be the next election where at least in theory (but I don't believe it myself) the present government would gerrymander the system to their own advantage and so they might just hold on. Now if that did happen then that truely would be the end of Labour AND its sympathisers. But if there is a Farage / Con government then support for the right will fall pretty quickly. If bizarrely there is a very hung parliament with the LDs in charge and maybe with the PM then I doubt the LDs will ever recover.
One of the biggest problems for the left is they are unable to distinguish between equality and fairness. They think that an equal society is a fair society - it certainly isn't.
I think that with an electorate split 5 ways (and more in Wales and Scotland) that we are going to see some freakish results under FPTP.
I think you are correct in that whoever forms a government will not be perceived as hving a proper mandate, and popularity will plummet faster than Liz Truss. It will be far safer to be on the opposition benches. If it is a minority government then I would expect a further election a few months later.
It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss, and flip Texas SD-9, a seat held by Republicans for 35 years and carried by Trump by 17 points in 2024. https://x.com/travisakers/status/2017785295853236311
Also, Wambsganss is a real name then ?
Latest vote count:
Dem 57.2% Rep 42.8%
The Dems have today won a seat by 14% which Trump won by 17% in 2024.
Result appears final - though worth noting turnout was only 15%.
Higher Dem turnout in the midterms is what will drive higher than usual gains in the midterms, in my view.
With a little over 9 months to go, it doesn't seem to me like Trump has done enough to undermine elections proceeding fairly to have a chance at maintaining control of Congress.
Anyway if we think Andrew M-W is embarrassing, what has come out about the Norwegian Crown Princess and her son, currently facing 38 charges, 4 of them for rape, and Epstein is far worse.
Prior to her marrying the Crown Prince, she had been in several relationships with drug-trafficking gangsters, one of whom fathered her son, now standing trial.
I find it impossible to fathom how the Norwegian government or royal family could have allowed that marriage. And, impossible to believe that she can be queen, especially in light of her dealings with Epstein.
I think you're mixing up two different people ?
The Epstein princess, according to the BBC report, is the Crown Prince's older sister (who lost her royal title in 2024).
The Prince's wife has nothing to do with Epstein (and is seriously ill, awaiting a lung transplant).
It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss, and flip Texas SD-9, a seat held by Republicans for 35 years and carried by Trump by 17 points in 2024. https://x.com/travisakers/status/2017785295853236311
Also, Wambsganss is a real name then ?
Latest vote count:
Dem 57.2% Rep 42.8%
The Dems have today won a seat by 14% which Trump won by 17% in 2024.
Result appears final - though worth noting turnout was only 15%.
Higher Dem turnout in the midterms is what will drive higher than usual gains in the midterms, in my view.
With a little over 9 months to go, it doesn't seem to me like Trump has done enough to undermine elections proceeding fairly to have a chance at maintaining control of Congress.
Not yet, anyway.
But the key bit of democracy isn't that someone gets elected, it's that a defeated government leaves office.
Knowing the trouble that awaits them on a personal level if the do that, is it remotely realistic to see the current Administration ceding any power whatsoever to their opponents?
Never mind the quality, feel the width. This is the rule when it comes to defectors from the Tories to Reform. Mr Farage is gambling that he gains more from the impression of momentum supplied by defectors than he loses from the damage they do to his claim to represent a clean break with the “establishment” parties.
His rivals think he is making a mistake in allowing his party to turn into a recycling centre for Tory waste products. Labour sniffs an opportunity. Labour people are encouraged by Reform’s choice of candidate, Matthew Goodwin, whose politics are sufficiently noxious to have received the endorsement of the far-right agitator, Tommy Robinson.
[For the Tories, these] departures create space for Mrs Badenoch to broaden her party’s appeal and rebuild the Conservatives around their traditional, often highly successful, calling cards with the electorate. They have an advantage over both Labour and Reform when voters are asked which party they prefer on taxes, the national debt, investment and job creation.
There’s a gap in the market for a centre-right party that appeals to voters who think Labour is overtaxing them while also believing that Reform can’t be trusted with the economy. It is this gap that is addressed by Prosper UK, the new grouping launched by Sir Andy Street…and Baroness Ruth Davidson. Their prospectus highlights fiscal responsibility, encouraging enterprise and free trade: quintessential Tory themes with a past record of appealing to many Britons. Yet rather than welcome their contribution, Mrs Badenoch foolishly chose to blow a raspberry at them. The popping sound you can hear is the champagne corks flying at Lib Dem campaign HQ.
Rawnsley on form. He's correct I think that a small gap has opened for them and if they get rid of Reform-lite Kemi they could get back in the reckoning
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
Good morning, everyone.
It was a few years ago but I still remember south Wales getting a foot of snow. London had an inch, apparently, a reporter 'on the spot' claiming traffic had ground to the halt (as cars moved behind him), and that was given way more coverage.
On MS predictions, I went back to check and mine is mid-20s. In my defence, I know sod all about most elections compared to everyone else here
I took the radical step of checking some polling and seat prediction data before making my guess.
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
Good morning, everyone.
It was a few years ago but I still remember south Wales getting a foot of snow. London had an inch, apparently, a reporter 'on the spot' claiming traffic had ground to the halt (as cars moved behind him), and that was given way more coverage.
On MS predictions, I went back to check and mine is mid-20s. In my defence, I know sod all about most elections compared to everyone else here
I took the radical step of checking some polling and seat prediction data before making my guess.
Was that cheating?
Ha, no. I had to check to see how many seats the Welsh Assembly had before making my guess.
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
Good morning, everyone.
It was a few years ago but I still remember south Wales getting a foot of snow. London had an inch, apparently, a reporter 'on the spot' claiming traffic had ground to the halt (as cars moved behind him), and that was given way more coverage.
On MS predictions, I went back to check and mine is mid-20s. In my defence, I know sod all about most elections compared to everyone else here
I took the radical step of checking some polling and seat prediction data before making my guess.
Was that cheating?
Ha, no. I had to check to see how many seats the Welsh Assembly had before making my guess.
That's where you went wrong - the number is increasing after the election.
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
Good morning, everyone.
It was a few years ago but I still remember south Wales getting a foot of snow. London had an inch, apparently, a reporter 'on the spot' claiming traffic had ground to the halt (as cars moved behind him), and that was given way more coverage.
On MS predictions, I went back to check and mine is mid-20s. In my defence, I know sod all about most elections compared to everyone else here
I took the radical step of checking some polling and seat prediction data before making my guess.
Was that cheating?
Ha, no. I had to check to see how many seats the Welsh Assembly had before making my guess.
That's where you went wrong - the number is increasing after the election.
The most amazing thing to me about L'Affaire Epstein is that there is zero trace of Johnson anywhere in it. It seems like every well connected degenerate in the Western Hemisphere were getting their bollocks drained and their wallets filled courtesy of GE. Johnson, as we know, is very keen on illicit vadge and other people's money but nada...
Anyway if we think Andrew M-W is embarrassing, what has come out about the Norwegian Crown Princess and her son, currently facing 38 charges, 4 of them for rape, and Epstein is far worse.
Prior to her marrying the Crown Prince, she had been in several relationships with drug-trafficking gangsters, one of whom fathered her son, now standing trial.
I find it impossible to fathom how the Norwegian government or royal family could have allowed that marriage. And, impossible to believe that she can be queen, especially in light of her dealings with Epstein.
I think you're mixing up two different people ?
The Epstein princess, according to the BBC report, is the Crown Prince's older sister (who lost her royal title in 2024).
The Prince's wife has nothing to do with Epstein (and is seriously ill, awaiting a lung transplant).
I have to sympathise with her, given her illness, but she is someone who has displayed an appalling degree of bad judgement, in terms of who she associates with.
We all know how much the UK political establishment love to ignore Wales - and the PB Predictions Competition is continuing this trend.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
The lowest was 11, by somebody with three posts - not sure whether a lurker or a Saturday visitor.
My reaction was much the same as yours. I'm bearish on Plaid seats but I can't see how they possibly go below 30 in the current climate.
11 - that is a number that Labour and Tories could reach for but beyond the wildest dreams of Lib Dems...
The most amazing thing to me about L'Affaire Epstein is that there is zero trace of Johnson anywhere in it. It seems like every well connected degenerate in the Western Hemisphere were getting their bollocks drained and their wallets filled courtesy of GE. Johnson, as we know, is very keen on illicit vadge and other people's money but nada...
The timelines barely dissect. Johnson had only just got his feet under the County Hall table when the Feds came a calling on Jeff, after a good citizen from Mar a Lago blew the whistle on him*.
Comments
If the Crown ever do a season 7 (or whatever number its at) the episodes with Prince Andrew jetting back from the US getting harassed by his maw what he was up to need top billing
I was going to enter the competition at the last minute but I'm too late now.
I much preferred last years game of guessing the UK polling highs and lows for the main parties, at which it turns out I was reasonably good (if less good at submitting my answers in the right order!).
If I recall correctly, US citizens can be tried -- in the US -- for sex with underage individuals in foreign nations. Does the UK have a similar law?
The Tim Traveller"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqP4QipFCkc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Kwpj1UOrhs
The age of consent in the nation is irrelevant. Which is useful, because it's presumably not entirely clear what jurisdiciton Epstein Island was in..
The Epstein princess, according to the BBC report, is the Crown Prince's older sister (who lost her royal title in 2024).
The Prince's wife has nothing to do with Epstein (and is seriously ill, awaiting a lung transplant).
"There’s no credible information that Jeffrey Epstein trafficked minors. If there were, I would bring the case yesterday."
https://x.com/Daractenus/status/2017743520996442348
https://x.com/emilyjashinsky/status/2017683021323776383
If you are a lawyer, are interested in being an AUSA, and support President Trump and anti-crime agenda, DM me.
We need good prosecutors. And DOJ is hiring across the country. Now is your chance to join the mission and do good for our country.
https://x.com/chad_mizelle/status/2017585275896058233
Never mind the quality, feel the width. This is the rule when it comes to defectors from the Tories to Reform. Mr Farage is gambling that he gains more from the impression of momentum supplied by defectors than he loses from the damage they do to his claim to represent a clean break with the “establishment” parties.
His rivals think he is making a mistake in allowing his party to turn into a recycling centre for Tory waste products. Labour sniffs an opportunity. Labour people are encouraged by Reform’s choice of candidate, Matthew Goodwin, whose politics are sufficiently noxious to have received the endorsement of the far-right agitator, Tommy Robinson.
[For the Tories, these] departures create space for Mrs Badenoch to broaden her party’s appeal and rebuild the Conservatives around their traditional, often highly successful, calling cards with the electorate. They have an advantage over both Labour and Reform when voters are asked which party they prefer on taxes, the national debt, investment and job creation.
There’s a gap in the market for a centre-right party that appeals to voters who think Labour is overtaxing them while also believing that Reform can’t be trusted with the economy. It is this gap that is addressed by Prosper UK, the new grouping launched by Sir Andy Street…and Baroness Ruth Davidson. Their prospectus highlights fiscal responsibility, encouraging enterprise and free trade: quintessential Tory themes with a past record of appealing to many Britons. Yet rather than welcome their contribution, Mrs Badenoch foolishly chose to blow a raspberry at them. The popping sound you can hear is the champagne corks flying at Lib Dem campaign HQ.
Remember when we learned that our wealthiest and most powerful people were connected to a guy who ran a literal child sex trafficking ring? And then that guy died mysteriously in a jail? And now we just don't talk about it.
https://x.com/JDVance/status/1434146390217736192
Odd, that.
Apart from the competition itself using the incorrect term AM instead of MS(or AS), some of the entries are delusional. While current polling predicts the Plaid MSs to be around 40 +/-5, some punters are predicting around 20 ... I think the lowest prediction I saw was 15!!! I can only think that someone has looked at the existing number and just tweaked them a little - Ignoring the Plaid surge, the Caerffili bye-election, or most importantly the increase in seats from 60 to 96.
Ignore Wales at your peril!
It was a few years ago but I still remember south Wales getting a foot of snow. London had an inch, apparently, a reporter 'on the spot' claiming traffic had ground to the halt (as cars moved behind him), and that was given way more coverage.
On MS predictions, I went back to check and mine is mid-20s. In my defence, I know sod all about most elections compared to everyone else here
It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss, and flip Texas SD-9, a seat held by Republicans for 35 years and carried by Trump by 17 points in 2024.
https://x.com/travisakers/status/2017785295853236311
Also, Wambsganss is a real name then ?
Dem 57.2%
Rep 42.8%
The Dems have today won a seat by 14% which Trump won by 17% in 2024.
Result appears final - though worth noting turnout was only 15%.
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/TX/Tarrant/125768/web.345435/#/detail/1
Oh I predicted 41. Looking forward to being completely wrong but in good company.
And when North resigned the King's determination to freeze the leading Whigs out of government led to two years of crisis, which saw him try first Shelburne and then Pitt the Younger as First Lord despite the overwhelming support in the Commons for the Foxite Whigs. He turfed out the Portland ministry, for example, by telling the House of Lords 'anyone who votes for this bill is not only not the King's friend, but will be considered by him to be an enemy - and if that word is not strong enough, they may assume the King means any other word stronger and more to the purpose [i.e. traitor].' He was a bit fortunate that the reckless decision of Fox to ally with the discredited North led to the collapse of his faction in the 1784 election.
It was also the King who caused a series of crises in the 1800s over Catholic emancipation and his meddling over peace deals with France, which forced Pitt, then Addington, then Grenville from office.
And it was the King who consistently blocked any attempt by Pitt at Parliamentary reform from 1785 onwards.
George had on his side that when he wasn't suffering from bouts of madness/illness he was both bright and very popular personally. But he was determined to rule as well as reign and that was problematic in the arrangements of 18th century Britain.
My reaction was much the same as yours. I'm bearish on Plaid seats but I can't see how they possibly go below 30 in the current climate.
That does however presuppose Greg Abbott, a man who has repeatedly demonstrated he thinks laws don't apply to Republican governors, will allow fair elections.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/13332/we-changed-prime-ministers-during-both-world-wars-politicalbetting-com#Comment_5431575
I am not the only one who didn't go for +14 on that one, though those going for Ref less than 14 don't seem very on the ball.
Thanks @Benpointer for organising.
One of the biggest problems for the left is they are unable to distinguish between equality and fairness. They think that an equal society is a fair society - it certainly isn't.
I think you are correct in that whoever forms a government will not be perceived as hving a proper mandate, and popularity will plummet faster than Liz Truss. It will be far safer to be on the opposition benches. If it is a minority government then I would expect a further election a few months later.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=novuramedia+interview+with+green+candidate#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:19992291,vid:DpFQvGs8qG0,st:0
With a little over 9 months to go, it doesn't seem to me like Trump has done enough to undermine elections proceeding fairly to have a chance at maintaining control of Congress.
But the key bit of democracy isn't that someone gets elected, it's that a defeated government leaves office.
Knowing the trouble that awaits them on a personal level if the do that, is it remotely realistic to see the current Administration ceding any power whatsoever to their opponents?
Was that cheating?
The key question is how organised they are. They need to get their vote to turn out, not least because we need to rename Matt Goodwin as Matt Badloss.
NEW THREAD
* Not looking like such a great idea now
Or a free summary at https://coinpaper.com/14202/abu-dhabi-money-linked-to-trump-crypto-project-raises-foreign-influence-questions
One for @Sandpit