Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump was found to be a rapist by a jury. So, yeah, I think there is serious evidence of impropriety already! The latest release has plenty of accusations about Trump and Melania.
Biden's DOJ followed the rules and didn't just "throw anything and everything" at Trump.
Half a dozen leftist splinter groups standing, plus the Greens, will almost certainly deny Labour the seat. They’re fighting each other and not the actual enemy.
No, Advance are the lot that think Nigel Farage is a woke liberal, that Shabana Mahmood isn't the British Home Secretary.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
Half a dozen leftist splinter groups standing, plus the Greens, will almost certainly deny Labour the seat. They’re fighting each other and not the actual enemy.
No, Advance are the lot that think Nigel Farage is a woke liberal, that Shabana Mahmood isn't the British Home Secretary.
Yeah I got that wrong and edited my original post. Advance are Tommy’s mob, rather than another leftist splinter group.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
The margin of error must be a little on the large side.
It's a bit complicated, the MOE remains the same in theory, as the sample size remains 143, out of the 143 just 51 expressed who they would vote for.
Normally in most polls around 75% to 80% of respondents express a voting intention, with this poll just barely a third did.
If only one person expressed a voting intention, say for Reform, then would the Reform share of 100% have the same MOE of 8% in theory?
What has an 8% margin of error is the proportion of people who said they would vote for that party (except 8% only applies if the proportion is 50%; if it's different to that, the MOE is smaller).
If you want the proportion of people after excluding the won't vote etc., then the effective sample size is smaller and the MOE increases.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
By-elections rarely follow national polling. They more usually exaggerate on trends in national polling.
By elections normally do follow national polling actually, except in the case of the LDs who usually far outperform their national polling in by elections if the seat is held by the party in government which is unpopular and they can make themselves the main opponents to them. They can also win seats from unpopular opposition parties eg Romsey in 2000.
There is zero evidence the Greens campaigning by election operation is anywhere near as good as the LDs in terms of leafletting and GOTV and accurate canvass data, indeed the Greens couldn't even spell the name of the constituency correctly at their campaign launch!
Sajid Javid @sajidjavid The original online headline on my Sunday Times interview last week was incorrect and attributed words to me that I did not say. The paper has now corrected this and added the clarification below. I’m grateful that the record has been set straight.
Mr Javid now wishes it to be known that he doesn't know whether he would let people like his parents into the country today.
I was actually quite impressed by that piece. His background was much tougher than I thought it'd been. And, unlike many others, he really didn't ever make that much of his personal backstory while in government.
I guess if you're minister in a Tory government increasingly dealing with anger over immigration and culminating in the Boriswave, you may not want to draw attention to your child of immigrants humble background.
A "When did you stop beating your wife?" type statement from the Times.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
As for that photo of Andrew Mountbatten-WIndsor on all fours, can anyone tell me why he is was Queen Elizabeth II's favourite sprog?
Look at the competition... Wierdo, Wooden and Wimp.
Please do not call Prince Edward a wimp.
To be fair the Andrew formerly known as Prince did earn his medals as a helicopter pilot in the Falklands war and was always far more macho than Prince Edward the actor and media luvvie and the King, the intellectual horticultaralist who talked to his trees. (Although Princess Anne is probably the toughest of the lot and was Prince Philip's favourite child as a result).
The Duke of Edinburgh is though Colonel of the Scots Guards, the Royal Hussars etc
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
Thanks. So, just taking their raw numbers, n = 51 expressing a voting intention, assuming it's a proper random sample (which of course it isn't), you get:
Conservative 8% (2%-17%) Labour 33% (22%-47%) Liberal Democrats 3% (0%-10%) Reform UK 35% (24%-49%) Green 22% (13%-35%)
On that, you can't split Reform, Labour and Green.
With Nick Buckley, MBE, the Reform UK mayoral candidate in 2021 and independent candidate in 2024.
Tommy Robinson is in Advance UK, so should theoretically withdraw his endorsement of Goodwin to back Buckley.
Advance UK has approximately one third the number of councillors that Your Party do.
Tommy Robinson is the biggest name in AdvanceUK, even bigger than Habib, so Goodwin will no doubt be championing Tommy 3 names endorsement of him to any Reform backers thinking of going Advance
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
I authored the story you are about to experience with purpose: the charm of laughter, the tenderness of transparency, and the determination to break new ground.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
Small LibDem vote can be squeezed by the anti-Reform vote. Easy tactical vote for the Greens for most of them.
May well be some anti-Reform Tories prepared to do the same. Easier tactical vote for the Greens for most of them than Labour.
Even the LD plus Green votes combined are still slightly less than the Labour vote in Gorton on the Nowcast figures.
I would expect far more Tories would tactically vote Reform than the far left Greens, as a Tory myself I would even vote Labour over the Polanski Greens
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
Since streaming services pay royalties from a pool rather than at a set rate, the money that goes to the fraudsters comes at the expense of flesh and blood artists (or at least, artists with human listeners).
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
So even the big announcement was just an agreement to talk about getting an agreement...
The prime minister said the requirement for British visitors to need a visa to visit China for under 30 days would be scrapped. But the Chinese government said it was something they were merely "actively considering." Sir Keir insisted to me it will happen, but acknowledged there was no start date agreed. "We are making progress," he said.
I am glad he doesn't work for me sorting out deals. Given it isn't special to have such an agreement, how do you not get that over the line in exchange for allowing super spy centre in London. I get the feeling he would do a deal for magic beans on the international stage.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
So even the big announcement was just an agreement to talk about getting an agreement...
The prime minister said the requirement for British visitors to need a visa to visit China for under 30 days would be scrapped. But the Chinese government said it was something they were merely "actively considering." Sir Keir insisted to me it will happen, but acknowledged there was no start date agreed. "We are making progress," he said.
I am glad he doesn't work for me sorting out deals. Given it isn't special to have such an agreement, how do you not get that over the line in exchange for allowing super spy centre in London. I get the feeling he would do a deal for magic beans on the international stage.
It is not just failure to close the deal but the aim is questionable in the first place. Why is HMG making so much effort on behalf of China's tourism industry? It is like the well-intentioned EV subsidies that just mean Rachel Reeves sends monthly cheques to Elon and his Chinese equivalents. Or in-work benefits that subsidise bad employers.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
So even the big announcement was just an agreement to talk about getting an agreement...
The prime minister said the requirement for British visitors to need a visa to visit China for under 30 days would be scrapped. But the Chinese government said it was something they were merely "actively considering." Sir Keir insisted to me it will happen, but acknowledged there was no start date agreed. "We are making progress," he said.
I am glad he doesn't work for me sorting out deals. Given it isn't special to have such an agreement, how do you not get that over the line in exchange for allowing super spy centre in London. I get the feeling he would do a deal for magic beans on the international stage.
It is not just failure to close the deal but the aim is questionable in the first place. Why is HMG making so much effort on behalf of China's tourism industry? It is like the well-intentioned EV subsidies that just mean Rachel Reeves sends monthly cheques to Elon and his Chinese equivalents. Or in-work benefits that subsidise bad employers.
I suppose so they can claim its easier than ever for UK people to visit China to do business, but even that is horseshit. The current system is a bit of a pain, big application form that you do online that requires careful completion and two visits to a processing centre, but you do it once and you get 2 year visa. So if you do a lot of business in China you will have already done this. On the plus side, you go to immigration and because they do absolutely everything about you, you get through without too many issues*. I wonder if you go via the visa free option if you start to get a lot of questions about your intentions ala US immigration.
* I found it also helped a lot at internal train via train stations and airports, where they would check passport and then for any visa and as soon as they saw that I didn't have any issues.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
The margin of error must be a little on the large side.
Did they ask everyone on Denton Railway Station platform for their views?
Am I the only PBer to have passed through Denton station in both directions? On a Saturday morning in December 2019 - Guide Bridge to Stockport, Stockport back to Guide Bridge.
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
Which constituency seats do you think Labour might pick up, other than the two they are already expected to win? Remember that the more constituency seats they win, the fewer regional seats they may win.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
The margin of error must be a little on the large side.
Did they ask everyone on Denton Railway Station platform for their views?
Am I the only PBer to have passed through Denton station in both directions? On a Saturday morning in December 2019 - Guide Bridge to Stockport, Stockport back to Guide Bridge.
I would be very surprised if you were the only PBer to have done that.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
The margin of error must be a little on the large side.
Did they ask everyone on Denton Railway Station platform for their views?
Am I the only PBer to have passed through Denton station in both directions? On a Saturday morning in December 2019 - Guide Bridge to Stockport, Stockport back to Guide Bridge.
Alighting at Denton and catching the return to Guide Bridge would have been even more impressive.
With Nick Buckley, MBE, the Reform UK mayoral candidate in 2021 and independent candidate in 2024.
Tommy Robinson is in Advance UK, so should theoretically withdraw his endorsement of Goodwin to back Buckley.
Advance UK has approximately one third the number of councillors that Your Party do.
Tommy Robinson is the biggest name in AdvanceUK, even bigger than Habib, so Goodwin will no doubt be championing Tommy 3 names endorsement of him to any Reform backers thinking of going Advance
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
Small LibDem vote can be squeezed by the anti-Reform vote. Easy tactical vote for the Greens for most of them.
May well be some anti-Reform Tories prepared to do the same. Easier tactical vote for the Greens for most of them than Labour.
Tories voting for Trots? Takes all sorts.
There are quite a lot of Tories for whom Green is their second choice. Takes all sorts indeed...
If the choice was either Green or Reform I’d be voting Green on the basis that Greens aren’t going to deport me.
I would vote Reform on that choice, no question
I will never vote for Reform under any circumstances, and could vote for the party best placed to beat them even Green but especially Plaid here in Wales
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
The margin of error must be a little on the large side.
Did they ask everyone on Denton Railway Station platform for their views?
Am I the only PBer to have passed through Denton station in both directions? On a Saturday morning in December 2019 - Guide Bridge to Stockport, Stockport back to Guide Bridge.
Alighting at Denton and catching the return to Guide Bridge would have been even more impressive.
But then I would have missed out the track between Denton and Heaton Norris Junction (where the route meets the WCML).
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
Which constituency seats do you think Labour might pick up, other than the two they are already expected to win? Remember that the more constituency seats they win, the fewer regional seats they may win.
Remember @HYUFD is never wrong [ only in his view mind]
So even the big announcement was just an agreement to talk about getting an agreement...
The prime minister said the requirement for British visitors to need a visa to visit China for under 30 days would be scrapped. But the Chinese government said it was something they were merely "actively considering." Sir Keir insisted to me it will happen, but acknowledged there was no start date agreed. "We are making progress," he said.
I am glad he doesn't work for me sorting out deals. Given it isn't special to have such an agreement, how do you not get that over the line in exchange for allowing super spy centre in London. I get the feeling he would do a deal for magic beans on the international stage.
Apart from his habit of giving the EU everything it wants without getting anything tangible in return, and of paying foreigners tens of billions to take strategically vital islands off us, and of being habitually craven with the appalling US president, and of prosecuting British troops for killing terrorist murderers, and now of kowtowing to perhaps the most ghastly and harmful government in the world, and all in just his first 18 months, what could possibly give you that idea?
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
The margin of error must be a little on the large side.
Did they ask everyone on Denton Railway Station platform for their views?
Am I the only PBer to have passed through Denton station in both directions? On a Saturday morning in December 2019 - Guide Bridge to Stockport, Stockport back to Guide Bridge.
Alighting at Denton and catching the return to Guide Bridge would have been even more impressive.
But then I would have missed out the track between Denton and Heaton Norris Junction (where the route meets the WCML).
Then you could have caught the train from Denton to Stockport and got a rare ticket.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
Small LibDem vote can be squeezed by the anti-Reform vote. Easy tactical vote for the Greens for most of them.
May well be some anti-Reform Tories prepared to do the same. Easier tactical vote for the Greens for most of them than Labour.
Tories voting for Trots? Takes all sorts.
There are quite a lot of Tories for whom Green is their second choice. Takes all sorts indeed...
If the choice was either Green or Reform I’d be voting Green on the basis that Greens aren’t going to deport me.
I would vote Reform on that choice, no question
I will never vote for Reform under any circumstances, and could vote for the party best placed to beat them even Green but especially Plaid here in Wales
Well you are very much in the minority in terms of 2024 Conservative voters.
Most Tory voters on a forced choice would vote Reform over Labour or Green or Plaid and a plurality even Reform over the LDs.
It is most Labour or LD voters who on a forced choice would vote Green or Plaid over Reform.
52% of Conservative voters would vote Reform in a Labour v Reform seat FON found, 11% Labour and 37% would stay Tory. LD and Green and YP voters would strongly back Labour over Reform.
43% of Conservative voters would vote Reform in a LD v Reform seat, 31% would stay Conservative and 25% would vote LD.
Most Labour, Green and YP voters would tactically vote LD to beat Reform.
Interestingly in Conservative v Reform seats though, 38% of Labour voters would now vote Conservative to beat Reform, 53% stay Labour and just 6% go Reform. LD and Green supporters would act similarly
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
Small LibDem vote can be squeezed by the anti-Reform vote. Easy tactical vote for the Greens for most of them.
May well be some anti-Reform Tories prepared to do the same. Easier tactical vote for the Greens for most of them than Labour.
Tories voting for Trots? Takes all sorts.
There are quite a lot of Tories for whom Green is their second choice. Takes all sorts indeed...
If the choice was either Green or Reform I’d be voting Green on the basis that Greens aren’t going to deport me.
I would vote Reform on that choice, no question
I will never vote for Reform under any circumstances, and could vote for the party best placed to beat them even Green but especially Plaid here in Wales
Well you are very much in the minority in terms of 2024 Conservative voters.
Most Tory voters on a forced choice would vote Reform over Labour or Green or Plaid and a plurality even Reform over the LDs.
It is most Labour or LD voters who on a forced choice would vote Green or Plaid over Reform.
52% of Conservative voters would vote Reform in a Labour v Reform seat FON found, 11% Labour and 37% would stay Tory. LD and Green and YP voters would strongly back Labour over Reform.
43% of Conservative voters would vote Reform in a LD v Reform seat, 31% would stay Conservative and and 25% would vote LD.
Most Labour, Green and YP voters would tactically vote LD to beat Reform.
Interestingly in Conservative v Reform seats though, 38% of Labour voters would now vote Conservative to beat Reform, 53% stay Labour and just 6% go Reform. LD and Green supporters would act similarly
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
Which constituency seats do you think Labour might pick up, other than the two they are already expected to win? Remember that the more constituency seats they win, the fewer regional seats they may win.
There has been a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since 2021 on the latest Yougov Holyrood poll last week.
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
Which constituency seats do you think Labour might pick up, other than the two they are already expected to win? Remember that the more constituency seats they win, the fewer regional seats they may win.
There has been a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since 2021 on the latest Yougov Holyrood poll last week. So on that swing seats like East Lothian and Edinburgh Central could go Labour.
Reform are also now likely to win the most list seats on the Yougov poll, so even if Labour don't neither will the SNP
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
Which tells you just how bad the alternative was.
Or, more likely, just how bad a mistake the American government made in not blocking the purchase of Twitter by an overt neo-Nazi backed by some distinctly shady overseas investors.
The Find Out Now Gorton & Denton 'poll' VI was based on just 51 people.
Greens now heading to clear favourite on BF.
They shouldn't be.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
Small LibDem vote can be squeezed by the anti-Reform vote. Easy tactical vote for the Greens for most of them.
May well be some anti-Reform Tories prepared to do the same. Easier tactical vote for the Greens for most of them than Labour.
Tories voting for Trots? Takes all sorts.
There are quite a lot of Tories for whom Green is their second choice. Takes all sorts indeed...
If the choice was either Green or Reform I’d be voting Green on the basis that Greens aren’t going to deport me.
I would vote Reform on that choice, no question
I will never vote for Reform under any circumstances, and could vote for the party best placed to beat them even Green but especially Plaid here in Wales
Well you are very much in the minority in terms of 2024 Conservative voters.
Most Tory voters on a forced choice would vote Reform over Labour or Green or Plaid and a plurality even Reform over the LDs.
It is most Labour or LD voters who on a forced choice would vote Green or Plaid over Reform.
52% of Conservative voters would vote Reform in a Labour v Reform seat FON found, 11% Labour and 37% would stay Tory. LD and Green and YP voters would strongly back Labour over Reform.
43% of Conservative voters would vote Reform in a LD v Reform seat, 31% would stay Conservative and 25% would vote LD.
Most Labour, Green and YP voters would tactically vote LD to beat Reform.
Interestingly in Conservative v Reform seats though, 38% of Labour voters would now vote Conservative to beat Reform, 53% stay Labour and just 6% go Reform. LD and Green supporters would act similarly
Both Badenoch and Davey will be faced with the "who are you going to back if it's a Hung Parliament?" question. The LDs have form on this while the Conservatives don't. To be fair, both parties are playing the equidistance game quite well at this time but that line can't hold for ever.
It's what I've come to call the "Amber Valley" question - in a seat held by Labour, where Reform are second and the Conservatives third, should Conservative voters tactically support Reform to take the seat from Labour or Labour to stop Reform winning the seat? Badenoch will be asked the question and she will need to come up with a coherent answer which will indicate whether she would support a Reform minority Government or simply sit in Opposition irrespective of how the election turns out and see what happens.
IF the Conservatives are neither first nor second party in the next House of Commons, they will face the kind of irrelevance usually reserved for the Liberal Democrats.
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
Which constituency seats do you think Labour might pick up, other than the two they are already expected to win? Remember that the more constituency seats they win, the fewer regional seats they may win.
There has been a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since 2021 on the latest Yougov Holyrood poll last week.
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
Which constituency seats do you think Labour might pick up, other than the two they are already expected to win? Remember that the more constituency seats they win, the fewer regional seats they may win.
There has been a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since 2021 on the latest Yougov Holyrood poll last week.
The BBS summary I referred to was based on exactly that poll.
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
And had Eileen Cannon not timed out the case in an utterly egregious manner and/or Jack Smith been appointed a year earlier by Merrick Garland, would almost certainly have been jailed for stealing classified documents.
Another of the underreported stories is Smith's testimony to Congress (which the GOP tried to keep from the public), which is utterly damning.
There are so many of these stories that it's just become noise - which is how blatant illegality becomes normalised.
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
Which constituency seats do you think Labour might pick up, other than the two they are already expected to win? Remember that the more constituency seats they win, the fewer regional seats they may win.
There has been a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since 2021 on the latest Yougov Holyrood poll last week.
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
Which constituency seats do you think Labour might pick up, other than the two they are already expected to win? Remember that the more constituency seats they win, the fewer regional seats they may win.
There has been a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since 2021 on the latest Yougov Holyrood poll last week.
The BBS summary I referred to was based on exactly that poll.
East Lothian would certainly be a Labour gain from SNP on that swing.
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
Which tells you just how bad the alternative was.
Does it ?
What do the polls tell you now ?
When it comes to Trump, it's the Russian opinions that matter.
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
Which tells you just how bad the alternative was.
Does it ?
What do the polls tell you now ?
That the Dems are still more unpopular than both Trump and the Republicans.
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
Which tells you just how bad the alternative was.
Does it ?
What do the polls tell you now ?
That the Dems are still more unpopular than both Trump and the Republicans.
Although you might perhaps note that the headline figure is the Dems lead the Reps by 46-41 in Congressional polling (which is the figure that matters right now) so your statement is in fact incorrect. You might say they are viewed less favourably, which is not the same thing.
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
Which tells you just how bad the alternative was.
Harris is mediocre in the extreme, but she is not actively malevolent, corrupt, senile, or unhinged. She is not someone who is an active threat to US allies.
Sometimes, the voters make bad choices. In this case, they willingly chose a man whose character is atrocious.
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
Which constituency seats do you think Labour might pick up, other than the two they are already expected to win? Remember that the more constituency seats they win, the fewer regional seats they may win.
There has been a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since 2021 on the latest Yougov Holyrood poll last week.
I was looking at Ballot Box Scotland’s analysis of the recent YouGov Scottish poll. I noticed that Labour are forecast to pick up the final seat in 5 of the 8 regions. They are currently forecast to be the third largest party in terms of seats. If they don’t pick up those 5 seats they could be the fourth or even fifth largest party in Holyrood. How have the mighty fallen!
Labour could pick up some Holyrood constituency seats though, while England has seen a swing from Labour to Reform and Green since most of the local council seats up were last elected in 2022 and Wales has seen a swing from Labour to Plaid and Reform since the 2021 Senedd election in Scotland it is a different story. There has been a swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election on both the constituency and regional list vote, albeit mainly because some 2021 SNP voters now back Reform or the Greens or LDs
Which constituency seats do you think Labour might pick up, other than the two they are already expected to win? Remember that the more constituency seats they win, the fewer regional seats they may win.
There has been a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since 2021 on the latest Yougov Holyrood poll last week.
The BBS summary I referred to was based on exactly that poll.
East Lothian would certainly be a Labour gain from SNP on that swing.
Aberdeen S and N Kincardine, Aberdeenshire East, Angus N and Mearns, Ayr, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Cyldesdale, Moray, Perthshire N, Perthshire S and Kinrosshire could also be potential Reform gains from the SNP on last week's Yougov Holyrood poll
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
Which tells you just how bad the alternative was.
Does it ?
What do the polls tell you now ?
That the Dems are still more unpopular than both Trump and the Republicans.
Trump kicked Epstein out of his club two decades ago, when he worked out what he was up to.
I don't think either of those statements is true
Go on then, evidence for Musk ever going to the island, or for Trump having any relationship with Epstein after I think 2007?
Whether or not he cut ties with Epstein after 2007 does not exonerate all the other allegations against Trump before that date. I am not saying they are true because we don’t know but the absolute lack of transparency in respect of the release of the files and the redactions is not exactly a great look. The allegations are horrifying.
I stand by my previous comments that if there was any serious evidence of impropriety involving Trump, something serious enough to be disqualifying, it would have found its way to the papers before the election.
Biden’s DOJ was willing to throw anything and everything at putting him in prison, they wouldn’t have overlooked anything they thought they could stand up in court.
Trump incited a riot on 6/1/2021. He repeatedly lied that he lost the election, due to fraud. A jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual assault. He describes Haitians and Venezuelans as garbage, and lies about them eating pets. His business record is one of fraud, and non-payment of bills. He lusts after his own daughter. His posts on Truth Social are like the outpourings of the demon Pazuzu, in The Exorcist.
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
Which tells you just how bad the alternative was.
Harris is mediocre in the extreme, but she is not actively malevolent, corrupt, senile, or unhinged. She is not someone who is an active threat to US allies.
Sometimes, the voters make bad choices. In this case, they willingly chose a man whom they knew to be a criminal, a rapist and a failure
FTFY
We then come back to why. It may be immigration - Trump was certainly active in sabotaging efforts to control it, so he knew it was a hot button issue. It may be the economy, or Gaza, both of which were ultimately on Russia who are closely aligned with Trump. It may be Twitter, which Musk weaponised to push false narratives with considerable success (as we see on here, indeed). Or it may be the continued efforts of Republican state governors to rig the vote, although that would hardly account for Pennsylvania or North Carolina.
Most likely, it was some combination of all of them.
Comments
And maybe 600 miles east.
Normally in most polls around 75% to 80% of respondents express a voting intention, with this poll just barely a third did.
Happy to see Labour rather than Reform elected?
Biden's DOJ followed the rules and didn't just "throw anything and everything" at Trump.
Although the latest Nowcast has the Greens gaining Manchester Withington and Manchester Rusholme from Labour, it also has Labour leading in Gorton narrowly with Reform second and the Greens third.
Its Gorton and Denton figures from Nowcast are Labour 29.8%, Reform 26.9% and Greens 24.1%
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
You're lucky I am so modest and self effacing that I am not mentioning I tipped the Greens at 6/1.
my PB headlines, statistics.If you want the proportion of people after excluding the won't vote etc., then the effective sample size is smaller and the MOE increases.
There is zero evidence the Greens campaigning by election operation is anywhere near as good as the LDs in terms of leafletting and GOTV and accurate canvass data, indeed the Greens couldn't even spell the name of the constituency correctly at their campaign launch!
There's a download the tables there.
It is not in Labour's interest to have the Green Party seen as a credible seat winner on the left.
May well be some anti-Reform Tories prepared to do the same. Easier tactical vote for the Greens for most of them than Labour.
https://x.com/cschmitzrun/status/2017470098051600627?s=20
Conservative 8% (2%-17%)
Labour 33% (22%-47%)
Liberal Democrats 3% (0%-10%)
Reform UK 35% (24%-49%)
Green 22% (13%-35%)
On that, you can't split Reform, Labour and Green.
https://x.com/TRobinsonNewEra/status/2017028476499304786?s=20
Robinson and Goodwin go back a long way
https://x.com/TRobinsonNewEra/status/2017267881965187082?s=20
Or the finest words money can buy anyway.
MELANIA TRUMP
@MELANIATRUMP
·
12h
MELANIA, the film
I authored the story you are about to experience with purpose: the charm of laughter, the tenderness of transparency, and the determination to break new ground.
https://x.com/MELANIATRUMP/status/2017378650396508264?s=20
I would expect far more Tories would tactically vote Reform than the far left Greens, as a Tory myself I would even vote Labour over the Polanski Greens
All this is in the public domain, and still 77 m voted for this deranged, babbling, fuckwit.
Though Yougov found 50% of 2024 Conservatives would vote Reform in a straight Labour v Reform contest
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51713-is-tactical-voting-more-of-a-threat-or-opportunity-for-reform-uk
https://news.sky.com/story/robots-listening-to-robots-how-ai-music-fraudsters-are-spamming-sites-and-taking-cash-from-real-musicians-13500953
- Have AI write and record a new song (not fraud)
- Upload it to a streaming service (not fraud)
- Use a bot farm to listen to the song (fraud)
- Collect royalties
Since streaming services pay royalties from a pool rather than at a set rate, the money that goes to the fraudsters comes at the expense of flesh and blood artists (or at least, artists with human listeners).1. 20
2. 3
3. 65
4. 39
5. Reform 13%
6. 24%
7. 10
8. Keir Starmer
9. No
10. £126bn
11. 1.7%
12. England
In any case the question was on a forced choice Reform or Green? I am still a Tory otherwise not Reform
The prime minister said the requirement for British visitors to need a visa to visit China for under 30 days would be scrapped. But the Chinese government said it was something they were merely "actively considering." Sir Keir insisted to me it will happen, but acknowledged there was no start date agreed. "We are making progress," he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3r10n94jxro
I am glad he doesn't work for me sorting out deals. Given it isn't special to have such an agreement, how do you not get that over the line in exchange for allowing super spy centre in London. I get the feeling he would do a deal for magic beans on the international stage.
Lam from the Tories and Reform seem to think more should be deported.
One of the best movie soundtracks of all time though.
* I found it also helped a lot at internal train via train stations and airports, where they would check passport and then for any visa and as soon as they saw that I didn't have any issues.
https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/2017334638608265319
"Weird detail from the Epstein record that deserves way more scrutiny:
Jeffrey Epstein reportedly ordered 30 separate DNA test kits from 23andMe, enough that the company itself reached out to ask why.
Thirty."
One despairs
Not value at that imho.
I have a few £ on Labour.
📊 Ref lead of 12pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 32% (+2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (-3)
GRN: 13% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
via @BMGResearch, 28 - 29 Jan
Chgs. w/ 27 Nov
britainelects.com
https://x.com/britainelects/status/2017546160471167275?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://x.com/ToryFibs/status/2017553474284622049?s=20
Most Tory voters on a forced choice would vote Reform over Labour or Green or Plaid and a plurality even Reform over the LDs.
It is most Labour or LD voters who on a forced choice would vote Green or Plaid over Reform.
52% of Conservative voters would vote Reform in a Labour v Reform seat FON found, 11% Labour and 37% would stay Tory. LD and Green and YP voters would strongly back Labour over Reform.
43% of Conservative voters would vote Reform in a LD v Reform seat, 31% would stay Conservative and 25% would vote LD.
Most Labour, Green and YP voters would tactically vote LD to beat Reform.
Interestingly in Conservative v Reform seats though, 38% of Labour voters would now vote Conservative to beat Reform, 53% stay Labour and just 6% go Reform. LD and Green supporters would act similarly
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/pseph_tactical_2025.html
Reform are also now likely to win the most list seats on the Yougov poll, so even if Labour don't neither will the SNP
Both Badenoch and Davey will be faced with the "who are you going to back if it's a Hung Parliament?" question. The LDs have form on this while the Conservatives don't. To be fair, both parties are playing the equidistance game quite well at this time but that line can't hold for ever.
It's what I've come to call the "Amber Valley" question - in a seat held by Labour, where Reform are second and the Conservatives third, should Conservative voters tactically support Reform to take the seat from Labour or Labour to stop Reform winning the seat? Badenoch will be asked the question and she will need to come up with a coherent answer which will indicate whether she would support a Reform minority Government or simply sit in Opposition irrespective of how the election turns out and see what happens.
IF the Conservatives are neither first nor second party in the next House of Commons, they will face the kind of irrelevance usually reserved for the Liberal Democrats.
Another of the underreported stories is Smith's testimony to Congress (which the GOP tried to keep from the public), which is utterly damning.
There are so many of these stories that it's just become noise - which is how blatant illegality becomes normalised.
What do the polls tell you now ?
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/democratic-party
The same voters would kick Trump out tomorrow if given the chance.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote
Sometimes, the voters make bad choices. In this case, they willingly chose a man whose character is atrocious.
Aberdeen S and N Kincardine, Aberdeenshire East, Angus N and Mearns, Ayr, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Cyldesdale, Moray, Perthshire N, Perthshire S and Kinrosshire could also be potential Reform gains from the SNP on last week's Yougov Holyrood poll
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election#Results_by_constituency
To turn your own question back on you, what does that tell you about this administration ?
We then come back to why. It may be immigration - Trump was certainly active in sabotaging efforts to control it, so he knew it was a hot button issue. It may be the economy, or Gaza, both of which were ultimately on Russia who are closely aligned with Trump. It may be Twitter, which Musk weaponised to push false narratives with considerable success (as we see on here, indeed). Or it may be the continued efforts of Republican state governors to rig the vote, although that would hardly account for Pennsylvania or North Carolina.
Most likely, it was some combination of all of them.