politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Details of all 14 seats from the first round of the Lord As
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The TNS numbers are, on the face of it, encouraging for Labour, but, according to Anthony Wells, TNS is by far the most Labour-friendly of the polling companies, putting them, on average, 3% further ahead of the Conservatives than the average.0
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Labour were badly unprepared for coalition talks in 2010, will they be any better in May? Is anyone in the 2 big parties considering how a grand coalition would work?Artist said:On current projections the SNP supporters will be getting exactly what the majority of them want, the Tories out, someone who will argue for the best deal for Scotland and a party that could drag Labour away from cuts.
The only way this can change is if Labour's polling worsens or Labour rule out a coalition with the SNP.0 -
Yes indeed. Although I would be surprised if it was even Confidence and Supply, much more fun to be had supporting a minority government on a bill-by-bill basis, demoralises their troops by continuously demonstrating their reliance on SNP votes, pisses everyone off south of the board, plays well north of the border.Pulpstar said:
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.Indigo said:
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.JWisemann said:So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
If you listen to our SNP posters here, current nationalist thinking seems to have moved on as the likelihood increases that they will have a minority Westminster government by the balls.SouthernObserver said:
There will only be another referendum if Westminster gives the green light. It's hard to envisage that happening for a while. As the SNP stated, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/sep/thursdays-vote-once-lifetime-opportunity-fm
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If Labour are in a position to form a government despite being wiped out in Scotland Labour will have won most seats in England and with EV4EL will not need SNP support. In that situation, the only real leverage the SNP might have is to vote with the Tories in a vote of no confidence. They did that once before and it did not turn out well for them.Pulpstar said:
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.Indigo said:
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.JWisemann said:So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
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"When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And that deal will probably destroy Labour in England …"
Lessons from Quebec, no 8: The Worst Electoral Disaster Ever.
The Canadian Tories went from an absolute majority to just 2 seats in 1993.
What destroyed the Conservatives was exactly that. They were distrusted in Quebec because of failures in constitutional reform (Meech Lake and Charlotteville)
Before the rise of the Bloc Quebecois, federal elections (as opposed to state) returned mainly Conservatives in Quebec.
So in the rest of Canada, the Conservatives were seen as buying off Quebec for Conservative seats. Whether this is correct or not, the perception was enough to destroy the Tories.
I agree with you that -- a Labour SNP deal is fantastically dangerous for Labour. It would really need a consummate politician to get it to work. And they've got Bungling Ed.0 -
So do Labour in effect call the nationalists bluff by ruling out a coalition with the SNP, in effect trying to say to lefty Scots 'it really is us or the Tories'?Artist said:On current projections the SNP supporters will be getting exactly what the majority of them want, the Tories out, someone who will argue for the best deal for Scotland and a party that could drag Labour away from cuts.
The only way this can change is if Labour's polling worsens or Labour rule out a coalition with the SNP.
Seems a pretty high risk strategy to me...0 -
How do I get a postal vote?David_Evershed said:POSTAL VOTING IN 2015
Extract from Mark Pack newsletter
http://www.markpack.org.uk/116335/liberal-democrat-newswire-56/
"Seven million postal votes were issued in 2010 and the number is looking set to be even high this time round.
Not only are postal voters increasingly numerous, they also vote increasingly early as those administering elections have grown more and more keen to send out postal votes as promptly as possible given the administrative burdens involved in processing returned ballots (especially since the welcome introduction of the need to check security information on all returned postal ballots rather than on just a sample).
This time round, soundings with electoral returning officers show that most are going to start sending out postal ballots in the week commencing 13 April, weeks before polling day itself.
Rather like the frog that does not notice the slowly increasing temperature of the pot it is being cooked in, the long-term, sustained and major increase in postal voting levels has crept up and up and up without any one seismic change – and hence the numbers of people voting well before polling day has still not really been grasped by many who still set the timetables for their activity as if people only vote on polling day.
Grassroots electoral campaigners have long since learnt to run two ‘polling day’ operations but much of the rest of how elections, their coverage and the lobbying of candidates is organised is based on an increasingly antiquated notion of when people vote, with debates, events and coverage galore therefore happening after millions have voted."0 -
Kerching!0
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Boo, left-field q. from EM0
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If you've recently moved - register to vote online here, I just did. https://gov.uk/register-to-vote0
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Mr. Observer, not sure Labour will go for English votes for English laws. Their preference appears to be to **** up England so they have little political fiefdoms (which worked so very well for them in Scotland).0
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But the Nats can't on the one hand pledge to keep the Tories out of power and kick up a fuss at the same time. If Salmond doesn't want to be Miliband's bag man he needs to endorse the possibility of having the Tories in power.Anorak said:
Yeah, because kicking up a fuss in Westminster to get a better deal for Scotland will really harm them.FrankBooth said:
I wonder what Scots will be expecting from their nationalist MPs and how Salmond and co. will play it. Given the way they have been riding an anti-Tory wave it seems they would have to back Miliband who consequently wouldn't need to offer them much at all. If I were PM Ed I'd unveil a general social democratic agenda and dare the Nats to side with the Tories.JWisemann said:So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
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You're not getting paid for that. It wasn't a question.TheScreamingEagles said:Kerching!
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The site I just posted gives details.isam said:
How do I get a postal vote?David_Evershed said:POSTAL VOTING IN 2015
Extract from Mark Pack newsletter
http://www.markpack.org.uk/116335/liberal-democrat-newswire-56/
"Seven million postal votes were issued in 2010 and the number is looking set to be even high this time round.
Not only are postal voters increasingly numerous, they also vote increasingly early as those administering elections have grown more and more keen to send out postal votes as promptly as possible given the administrative burdens involved in processing returned ballots (especially since the welcome introduction of the need to check security information on all returned postal ballots rather than on just a sample).
This time round, soundings with electoral returning officers show that most are going to start sending out postal ballots in the week commencing 13 April, weeks before polling day itself.
Rather like the frog that does not notice the slowly increasing temperature of the pot it is being cooked in, the long-term, sustained and major increase in postal voting levels has crept up and up and up without any one seismic change – and hence the numbers of people voting well before polling day has still not really been grasped by many who still set the timetables for their activity as if people only vote on polling day.
Grassroots electoral campaigners have long since learnt to run two ‘polling day’ operations but much of the rest of how elections, their coverage and the lobbying of candidates is organised is based on an increasingly antiquated notion of when people vote, with debates, events and coverage galore therefore happening after millions have voted."0 -
It was about business/corporation tax rates.Tissue_Price said:
You're not getting paid for that. It wasn't a question.TheScreamingEagles said:Kerching!
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"Bill Somebody" is Labour's policy. Arf.
EdM asks four questions on arcane tax issue. Cam gets chance to batter Labour on a different point every time.0 -
Jim Murphy is unwell.
'Jim Murphy drops out of Big Issue campaign
The Scottish Labour leader had been scheduled to take part in the charity's 'Big Sell' campaign where a number of well-know Scottish figures help sell the Big Issue on streets across Scotland.'
http://glasgow.stv.tv/206253/0 -
The Chuckle Brothers, lol0
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He wants the Tories in power, is the best way to drive a wedge between rUK and Scotland, but he cant have it look like its his fault that the Tories are in power. There will be a deal of some sort with Labour because as the saying goes, "you have to get behind someone before you can stab them in the back"FrankBooth said:
But the Nats can't on the one hand pledge to keep the Tories out of power and kick up a fuss at the same time. If Salmond doesn't want to be Miliband's bag man he needs to endorse the possibility of having the Tories in power.Anorak said:
Yeah, because kicking up a fuss in Westminster to get a better deal for Scotland will really harm them.FrankBooth said:
I wonder what Scots will be expecting from their nationalist MPs and how Salmond and co. will play it. Given the way they have been riding an anti-Tory wave it seems they would have to back Miliband who consequently wouldn't need to offer them much at all. If I were PM Ed I'd unveil a general social democratic agenda and dare the Nats to side with the Tories.JWisemann said:So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
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Ha, if I had more money (I can't afford to bet on anything other than F1) I would've backed that 10/1 shot, and had some, er, more money.0
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No-one cares about Stamp duty and Hedge funds - what is Miliband doing?0
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In the 18 by elections held since Oldham East and Saddleworth the Liberal Democrat share of the vote has fallen by an average of 12.37%.OblitusSumMe said:
2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. If you have any evidence to contradict this, then share it.audreyanne said:2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally.
3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
At Eastleigh they managed to do even worse than that, their share falling 14.44%. They were saved at that mid-term by election, as you know (I think) by the then UKIP surge where UKIP polled 27.8%. If you think UKIP are likely to do that well, and that you think you can translate that across to the General Election, be my guest.
Were the impressive Easteigh LibDem fall to be repeated nationally at the General Election they would poll 8.5%. Funnily enough that's exactly where they're currently polling.
Facts, dear boy.
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Even Ed Balls seemed to acknowledge that was a good crack.Anorak said:"Bill Somebody" is Labour's policy. Arf.
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It's worth remembering that Labour never really wanted devolution. They went for it out of fear of the nationalists. Perhaps if New Labour had instead governed on a genuinely social democratic platform then the independence movement would have abated without devolution. Unfortunately it's too late for that now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, not sure Labour will go for English votes for English laws. Their preference appears to be to **** up England so they have little political fiefdoms (which worked so very well for them in Scotland).
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I can't see either the Tories or Labour agreeing to a referendum that they think they might lose. The SNP clearly stated it was a once in a lifetime opportunity and Westminster will hold them to that.Indigo said:
Yes indeed. Although I would be surprised if it was even Confidence and Supply, much more fun to be had supporting a minority government on a bill-by-bill basis, demoralises their troops by continuously demonstrating their reliance on SNP votes, pisses everyone off south of the board, plays well north of the border.Pulpstar said:
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.Indigo said:
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.JWisemann said:So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
If you listen to our SNP posters here, current nationalist thinking seems to have moved on as the likelihood increases that they will have a minority Westminster government by the balls.SouthernObserver said:
There will only be another referendum if Westminster gives the green light. It's hard to envisage that happening for a while. As the SNP stated, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/sep/thursdays-vote-once-lifetime-opportunity-fm0 -
This Scottish stuff is fascinating. Remind me, the No campaign won the referendum, right?
There must be a unionist vote to be harvested, somewhere??0 -
Ah, sorry, thought you'd backed "terrorism".TheScreamingEagles said:
It was about business/corporation tax rates.Tissue_Price said:
You're not getting paid for that. It wasn't a question.TheScreamingEagles said:Kerching!
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I do like Ole Two Brains.0
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I see the Prof has already made the point I was going to make about the closeness of many of the Ashcroft forecasts.antifrank said:An excellent summary from Professor Curtice (ie I agree with it):
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/02/ashcroft-shows-safe-labour-seats-really-risk/
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They cant talk about the Economy or Immigration, the NHS blew up in his face last week, he is running low on options.oxfordsimon said:No-one cares about Stamp duty and Hedge funds - what is Miliband doing?
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Oh yes, losing again.oxfordsimon said:No-one cares about Stamp duty and Hedge funds - what is Miliband doing?
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Tactical error from Cam. Fifth time on stamp duty though. Moron Ed.0
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If Labour has most English seats and next to none in Scotland EV4EL becomes as attractive to them as it is now for the Tories.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, not sure Labour will go for English votes for English laws. Their preference appears to be to **** up England so they have little political fiefdoms (which worked so very well for them in Scotland).
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Core Vote Gallery. I'm lost re his wider strategy.
Cameron thumped him using Bill Somebody.oxfordsimon said:No-one cares about Stamp duty and Hedge funds - what is Miliband doing?
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Ed goes back to the 70s, every tired Tory trope under the sun wheeled out.0
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"No wonder the person who wrote 'Things Can Only Get Better' says it no longer applies to Labour" says David Cameron
Wouldn't that imply Labour cant get any better?
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You can still get 0-5 SLAB seats at 7/1 from William hill.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/m/223080387/How+Many+Seats+Will+Labour+Win+In+Scotland+at+GE+2015?
IMO, that bet should be about the same odds as the SNP taking Glasgow NE.0 -
Roy's standing down this year.Pulpstar said:
I thought Labour were safe in Glenrothes, being in the East and having a 40% majority - but who knows.Plato said:Where does Glenrothes stand in the mix?
Easterross said:
It's wonderful. The prospect of Labour being ground into the dust in Scotland is just fantastic. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath going SNP would be the icing on the cake.TheScreamingEagles said:24 hours on from this polling, I'm still in a state of shock and amazement.
This polling is tote amazeballs.
I think this projection for 2015:
Prediction for 2015-
Roy (Labour)- 59%
SNP- 27%
Conservative- 6%
Liberal Democrats- 4%
UKIP- 3%
Others- 1%
On UK Polling report may just, may just be a "Touch" optimistic for Labour though.0 -
EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question0
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Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk · 2m2 minutes ago
Interesting that Miliband didn’t mention Lord Ashcroft in his list of Tory donors. Can’t imagine why he’d omit that name today… #pmqs0 -
I am not so sure, Labour care about Scotland because it has 40 odd Labour seats in it, those days have passed. The SNP will run the Scottish Westminster seats now until there aren't any. After Miliband has had to push through his tenth bill of the session on a confidence motion, having dropped most of the important clauses from the bill to make it "acceptable" he is going to be itching for the situation to chance, and its not going to all the time Scotland are in the union.SouthamObserver said:
I can't see either the Tories or Labour agreeing to a referendum that they think they might lose. The SNP clearly stated it was a once in a lifetime opportunity and Westminster will hold them to that.Indigo said:
Yes indeed. Although I would be surprised if it was even Confidence and Supply, much more fun to be had supporting a minority government on a bill-by-bill basis, demoralises their troops by continuously demonstrating their reliance on SNP votes, pisses everyone off south of the board, plays well north of the border.Pulpstar said:
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.Indigo said:
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.JWisemann said:So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
If you listen to our SNP posters here, current nationalist thinking seems to have moved on as the likelihood increases that they will have a minority Westminster government by the balls.SouthernObserver said:
There will only be another referendum if Westminster gives the green light. It's hard to envisage that happening for a while. As the SNP stated, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/sep/thursdays-vote-once-lifetime-opportunity-fm0 -
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I backed terrorism @ 25/1Tissue_Price said:
Ah, sorry, thought you'd backed "terrorism".TheScreamingEagles said:
It was about business/corporation tax rates.Tissue_Price said:
You're not getting paid for that. It wasn't a question.TheScreamingEagles said:Kerching!
It was a decent bet. One of those horrible good value losers.
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If Labour are on the point of losing Motherwell and Wishaw, there's nothing to be lost by throwing caution to the winds.AllyPally_Rob said:
So do Labour in effect call the nationalists bluff by ruling out a coalition with the SNP, in effect trying to say to lefty Scots 'it really is us or the Tories'?Artist said:On current projections the SNP supporters will be getting exactly what the majority of them want, the Tories out, someone who will argue for the best deal for Scotland and a party that could drag Labour away from cuts.
The only way this can change is if Labour's polling worsens or Labour rule out a coalition with the SNP.
Seems a pretty high risk strategy to me...
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Mr. Isam, logically yes, but try saying Ed Miliband's perfect whilst keeping your face straight.0
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Angus Robertson :-) Bercow redeeming himself?0
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He's run out of other options.oxfordsimon said:No-one cares about Stamp duty and Hedge funds - what is Miliband doing?
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I thought you avoided Twitter!antifrank said:
Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk · 2m2 minutes ago
Interesting that Miliband didn’t mention Lord Ashcroft in his list of Tory donors. Can’t imagine why he’d omit that name today… #pmqs0 -
The Scots don't haver very long lifetimes, all that Buckfast and deep fried pizzaSouthamObserver said:
I can't see either the Tories or Labour agreeing to a referendum that they think they might lose. The SNP clearly stated it was a once in a lifetime opportunity and Westminster will hold them to that.Indigo said:
Yes indeed. Although I would be surprised if it was even Confidence and Supply, much more fun to be had supporting a minority government on a bill-by-bill basis, demoralises their troops by continuously demonstrating their reliance on SNP votes, pisses everyone off south of the board, plays well north of the border.Pulpstar said:
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.Indigo said:
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.JWisemann said:So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
If you listen to our SNP posters here, current nationalist thinking seems to have moved on as the likelihood increases that they will have a minority Westminster government by the balls.SouthernObserver said:
There will only be another referendum if Westminster gives the green light. It's hard to envisage that happening for a while. As the SNP stated, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/sep/thursdays-vote-once-lifetime-opportunity-fm
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On the other hand the SNP are benefiting from, and demanding, power without responsibility ''the prerogative of the harlot through the ages''.taffys said:This Scottish stuff is fascinating. Remind me, the No campaign won the referendum, right?
There must be a unionist vote to be harvested, somewhere??
At some point they will have to make choices without blaming someone else for the results. Maybe then the unionist vote will move back to a party representing sound (centre right) government.0 -
He's run out of other options.
Even here he's getting beaten. The rich are paying more under the tories than they ever did under labour.0 -
Ed Balls looks reaallllllly unhappy. Hattie is looking anywhere else. WTF is EdM doing?0
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I'm still not a fan.Plato said:I thought you avoided Twitter!
antifrank said:Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk · 2m2 minutes ago
Interesting that Miliband didn’t mention Lord Ashcroft in his list of Tory donors. Can’t imagine why he’d omit that name today… #pmqs0 -
"Indeed, today’s polls suggest that, if anything, the picture may be even worse for Labour in its heartlands than the national polls suggest. On average Labour secured 58% of the vote in the 14 seats in 2010, while according to Ashcroft the party now stands at 37% in these seats, a drop of 21 points. That compares with an average drop of 15 points in the most recent Scotland wide polls."RodCrosby said:
I see the Prof has already made the point I was going to make about the closeness of many of the Ashcroft forecasts.antifrank said:An excellent summary from Professor Curtice (ie I agree with it):
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/02/ashcroft-shows-safe-labour-seats-really-risk/
That's nonsense isn't it? You would expect a bigger drop where they have more votes to lose than on average wouldn't you?
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This chap should be Labour's next leader0
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Its called clinging on to straws by your fingernails.oxfordsimon said:No-one cares about Stamp duty and Hedge funds - what is Miliband doing?
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I'm watching through my fingers now.0
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ITV News @itvnews 4m4 minutes ago
Rotherham Council 'not fit for purpose', abuse report finds http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-02-04/rotherham-council-not-fit-for-purpose-report-finds/ …0 -
OTOH, the Lib Dems now have an incumbent in Eastleigh, as opposed to defending a seat vacated by a criminal. It is genuinely a tough seat to call.audreyanne said:
In the 18 by elections held since Oldham East and Saddleworth the Liberal Democrat share of the vote has fallen by an average of 12.37%.OblitusSumMe said:
2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. If you have any evidence to contradict this, then share it.audreyanne said:2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally.
3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
At Eastleigh they managed to do even worse than that, their share falling 14.44%. They were saved at that mid-term by election, as you know (I think) by the then UKIP surge where UKIP polled 27.8%. If you think UKIP are likely to do that well, and that you think you can translate that across to the General Election, be my guest.
Were the impressive Easteigh LibDem fall to be repeated nationally at the General Election they would poll 8.5%. Funnily enough that's exactly where they're currently polling.
Facts, dear boy.0 -
Murphy's day got worse. That was long odds.0
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@iainmartin1: Good question from @DanJarvisMP - Tories not jeering him. @jameskirkup right that Jarvis could be next Labour leader. #PMQs0
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EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats.
I could easily see them voting with the tories to deny Scotland more of the pie0 -
Andrew Norfolk in The Times has blown this to Watergate standards.dr_spyn said:
ITV News @itvnews 4m4 minutes ago
Rotherham Council 'not fit for purpose', abuse report finds http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-02-04/rotherham-council-not-fit-for-purpose-report-finds/ …0 -
Oh, so he is saying they are rubbish and incapable of improvement?Anorak said:
Correct. Well done.isam said:"No wonder the person who wrote 'Things Can Only Get Better' says it no longer applies to Labour" says David Cameron
Wouldn't that imply Labour cant get any better?
Sorry, I thought it would only make sense to something that was so good it couldn't get better
Great joke Dave!0 -
UNS says not, and UNS has generally performed better than "proportional swing". But UNS can break down with large swings - quite obviously Labour couldn't lose 20% in Berwickshire and poll -10%, for example.isam said:
"Indeed, today’s polls suggest that, if anything, the picture may be even worse for Labour in its heartlands than the national polls suggest. On average Labour secured 58% of the vote in the 14 seats in 2010, while according to Ashcroft the party now stands at 37% in these seats, a drop of 21 points. That compares with an average drop of 15 points in the most recent Scotland wide polls."RodCrosby said:
I see the Prof has already made the point I was going to make about the closeness of many of the Ashcroft forecasts.antifrank said:An excellent summary from Professor Curtice (ie I agree with it):
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/02/ashcroft-shows-safe-labour-seats-really-risk/
That's nonsense isn't it? You would expect a bigger drop where they have more votes to lose than on average wouldn't you?0 -
Cameron uses a Labour backbench question to attack Ed for 'weaponising the NHS'0
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@gabyhinsliff: Suspect we're missing point re business vs Lab. Not wot M&S boss thinks but that he feels free to say it; dsnt fear customer backlash..
@gabyhinsliff: ..in other words, dsnt really think they're going to win. People are not afraid of offending Ed.0 -
Vote Labour
The #Casey report into sexual abuse in #Rotherham says the town's council is "not fit for purpose"0 -
Frankly, that EdM is LESS popular than DCameron in Scotland speaks volumes. And that's not even allowing for Gordon who remained more popular despite getting the Darwin Award for Best PM.taffys said:
EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats0 -
@PCollinsTimes: Labour's good points on business are now lost. Ed Balls is actually the pro-business guy in the team. Somehow they have to Kill Bill.0
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Latest report in the Rotherham sex abuse scandal. Council not fit for purpose.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-311307500 -
@OliverCooper: Guardian says Miliband was "effectively monstered by Cameron" at #PMQs. Quite.0
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I thought so. Labour are at the bottom of the barrel, and are busy getting splinters as they try and go down further.isam said:
Oh, so he is saying they are rubbish and incapable of improvement?Anorak said:
Correct. Well done.isam said:"No wonder the person who wrote 'Things Can Only Get Better' says it no longer applies to Labour" says David Cameron
Wouldn't that imply Labour cant get any better?
Sorry, I thought it would only make sense to something that was so good it couldn't get better
Great joke Dave!0 -
Please leave me alone.0
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And most of all, incumbancy will benefit current Labour MPs in Scotland which is perhaps why the betting markets have not been moved by Lord A's constituency polling.JackW said:May I just caution PBers about Lord A's constituency polling.
None of the polling has named candidates which will be of certain benefit to incumbents, especially LibDems but also to a high profile candidate such as Salmond in the Gordon constituency.0 -
Not Labour's best day and it's going to get worse.
The Casey inquiry has surfaced officially and the BBC has "political correctness" in its headline.0 -
Even I think there's more than one Unionist vote to be harvested. Probably.taffys said:This Scottish stuff is fascinating. Remind me, the No campaign won the referendum, right?
There must be a unionist vote to be harvested, somewhere??
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@paulwaugh: RT @GeneralBoles: Next Labour leader.....get your money on now before the price comes in #pmqs http://t.co/VCgqvrUVis>And so it begins0
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Well yes that's what I meant.. going from 58 to 37 isn't as bad as going from 30 to 18Tissue_Price said:
UNS says not, and UNS has generally performed better than "proportional swing". But UNS can break down with large swings - quite obviously Labour couldn't lose 20% in Berwickshire and poll -10%, for example.isam said:
"Indeed, today’s polls suggest that, if anything, the picture may be even worse for Labour in its heartlands than the national polls suggest. On average Labour secured 58% of the vote in the 14 seats in 2010, while according to Ashcroft the party now stands at 37% in these seats, a drop of 21 points. That compares with an average drop of 15 points in the most recent Scotland wide polls."RodCrosby said:
I see the Prof has already made the point I was going to make about the closeness of many of the Ashcroft forecasts.antifrank said:An excellent summary from Professor Curtice (ie I agree with it):
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/02/ashcroft-shows-safe-labour-seats-really-risk/
That's nonsense isn't it? You would expect a bigger drop where they have more votes to lose than on average wouldn't you?0 -
Nick Clegg doesn't look like a well man.0
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I concur - I talk politics with Tesco delivery bods and there's a lot of Tories in WVMLand here.Scott_P said:
@gabyhinsliff: Suspect we're missing point re business vs Lab. Not wot M&S boss thinks but that he feels free to say it; dsnt fear customer backlash..
@gabyhinsliff: ..in other words, dsnt really think they're going to win. People are not afraid of offending Ed.0 -
Mr Predator vs Producer is *pro-business* ? Well that's a remarkably limbo dancing low barScott_P said:
@PCollinsTimes: Labour's good points on business are now lost. Ed Balls is actually the pro-business guy in the team. Somehow they have to Kill Bill.
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Very sound CV, much better than most Labourites have to offer.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Good question from @DanJarvisMP - Tories not jeering him. @jameskirkup right that Jarvis could be next Labour leader. #PMQs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Jarvis
BS in International Politics and Strategic Studies.
MA in Conflict, Security & Development from King's College London.
Sandhurst
Parachute Regiment
Kosovo
Sierra Leone
2 Tours in Afghanistan, first in recon, then as company commander for special forces support.0 -
SPIN's SNP price is creeping up: Now 35-370
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Is Ed less popular than Cameron in Glasgow?Plato said:Frankly, that EdM is LESS popular than DCameron in Scotland speaks volumes. And that's not even allowing for Gordon who remained more popular despite getting the Darwin Award for Best PM.
taffys said:EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats
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@JGForsyth: Confirmation of how ugly this election is going to be. Spouses now considered fair game at PMQs
What happened to labour's 'clean campaign' crap?0 -
F1: from the livefeed - it's suggested the Ferrari engine has gained circa 80bhp. Felipe Nasr reckons it's similar to the 2014 Mercedes (which he drove now and then). However, the Silver Arrows are liking hiding their light under a bushel, and are believed to have added around 50bhp themselves.
Excepting Honda, which is new, the Renault's looking a little unreliable, but it's very early days.0 -
The unionist votes in Scotland are shared between Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem and UKIP.taffys said:This Scottish stuff is fascinating. Remind me, the No campaign won the referendum, right?
There must be a unionist vote to be harvested, somewhere??
The independence votes are almost all SNP plus a handful of Green voters.
The FPTP system thus favours SNP.0 -
Rotherham Council condemned as "not fit for purpose" by the Casey Report.0
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Even I think there's more than one Unionist vote to be harvested. Probably.
I'm probably speaking out of turn, but there might be an opportunity for the tories. Even if they got say four seats north of the border (out of the posher parts of Scotland of course), that might be crucial given the electoral balance of power.
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The one thing I take from PMQs.
Dave and the Tories are very confident.
Ed & Labour aren't.0 -
According to the slightly dubious 3-part question from Lord Ashcroft, yes.Sean_F said:
Is Ed less popular than Cameron in Glasgow?Plato said:Frankly, that EdM is LESS popular than DCameron in Scotland speaks volumes. And that's not even allowing for Gordon who remained more popular despite getting the Darwin Award for Best PM.
taffys said:EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats
(a) I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister
(b) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister - BUT I'd still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister
(c) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister – AND I'd prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead
Results on page 8 of the pdf.0 -
My tip for the top a while back; which probably dooms him to obscurity.Indigo said:
Very sound CV, much better than most Labourites have to offer.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Good question from @DanJarvisMP - Tories not jeering him. @jameskirkup right that Jarvis could be next Labour leader. #PMQs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Jarvis
BS in International Politics and Strategic Studies.
MA in Conflict, Security & Development from King's College London.
Sandhurst
Parachute Regiment
Kosovo
Sierra Leone
2 Tours in Afghanistan, first in recon, then as company commander for special forces support.
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@IsabelHardman: We cannot take photos in the Commons, which is a shame as it would be useful to show how fed up Labour benches look #PMQs0
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If this was a political TV drama - I'd call this set of scenes a plot foul - it's just so convenient for the show writers to dump all over the nerdy guy and prompt calls for a coup before it was all too late... just three months out...
LOLScott_P said:@paulwaugh: RT @GeneralBoles: Next Labour leader.....get your money on now before the price comes in #pmqs http://t.co/VCgqvrUVis>And so it begins
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Clegg is not happy with the way Cameron and the Tories are using everything for election purposes, including PMQ's. Cameron never answers many of the questions put to him and instead reads out something, which often does not relate to what was asked.chestnut said:Nick Clegg doesn't look like a well man.
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