@eucopresident I have decided to convene a special European Council on 6 March.
We are living a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.
In my consultations with European leaders, I’ve heard a shared commitment to meet those challenges at EU level: strengthening European Defence and contributing decisively to peace on our continent and long-term security of Ukraine.
I will continue to work together with @vonderleyen and all Member States to be ready to take decisions on 6 March.
He didn’t waste a minute - quite literally 18:01 - head of the European Council calls extraordinary summit of European leaders to discuss Ukraine and defense. EU can’t move without Berlin - incentive for action.
Outgoing Chancellor Scholz calls the result 'a bitter election result for the SPD' while still thanking party workers for their efforts
He was effing useless and will not be missed.
Th SPD will be looking a new leader
Germany the second G7 nation to shift from a left liberal government to a right of centre government in 6 months after the US and both Biden and Scholz were one term heads of government.
Not encouraging for Sir Keir, he will be hoping Albanese can scrape home in Australia and the Liberals and NDP further close the gap in Canada
The trend in 2024 (and now 2025) was for every incumbent party to lose their election, whether or the left or the right.
I think it's too early to say if voters will have the same sentiment in 2028/2029. Quite possible but I don't think this vote tells us much in that regard.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
Yes in UK context it is like a hung parliament with the Tories winning most seats at the next general election, Reform second and Labour third but Kemi then doing a deal with a humiliated Starmer anyway to keep Farage out of power.
Though to be fair the AfD have some far right elements Reform don't yet
Except that Germany has already had three CDU/CSU + SDP govts this century and the UK has had 0 Con/Lab govts since WW2.
The AfD is doubling its vote every five years or so. Ergo they will be the German government by the end of the decade
They would need to overtake the CDU as the main party of the right though which is unlikely while they are led by the more conservative Merz. SPD probably already squeezed down to near their core
I was half joking. But only half
I do believe most western governments will end up with versions of Trump/Milei/Bukele, albeit adapted to local circumstances
I think Trump and Milei will be one term wonders (or second one term wonders in Trump's case), elsewhere the nationalist right can only get into power with the centre right in a coalition as is now the case in Italy, Israel, New Zealand and Sweden and the Netherlands and maybe the case in Spain and the UK next time.
For the moment for historical reasons the main parties have a firewall to keep the AfD out
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
AFD creeping up, SPD and Green creeping down, but single figures and decimal points, nothing dramatic. AfD might crack 20% but it's not going to change much. AfD/BSW might crack 5% (which is the threshold) which would make a difference.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
How about an article about why they named it after the stuff you make plates and cups out of.
Why didn’t they call it “Gold” - is it a sign of a built-in Chinese modesty or was it an early sign that the Chinese recognised that the ordinary cheaper items would be their route to global trade dominance.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Always better to look at the distribution maps, than raw, nationwide percentages.
why? the nationwide percentages of the party vote are what count.
Because a sectional party has a fundamental limit on its success - it’s section.
But that map doesn't tell you very much about how parties are doing in different areas, it only shows the predicted biggest party in each constituency.
And which parties do you mean based on that map? The SPD?
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
How about an article about why they named it after the stuff you make plates and cups out of.
Why didn’t they call it “Gold” - is it a sign of a built-in Chinese modesty or was it an early sign that the Chinese recognised that the ordinary cheaper items would be their route to global trade dominance.
I, for one, would like to know.
But in that sort of poor slinging match, we would come off worst.
Always better to look at the distribution maps, than raw, nationwide percentages.
Reunification worked then.
The cultural differences that emerged after just 40 years or so of separation under different systems are surprisingly striking and long lasting. Now imagine trying to reunify the Koreas!
About 30 years ago I read a paper which demonstrated a high correlation between British regional accents and the pre-Roman tribal hunting grounds…
A bit of a shite electoral system where the make up of the government depends on whether a fringe party achieved 4.9% or 5% of the vote.
And a combined vote total of 45% resulting in an absolute majority of seats ain't PR as far as I'm concerned.
But still better than FPTP, mind!
Which system is better?
d'Hondt with minimum 8 member constituencies and candidate order determined by party primaries.
But one of your complaints was
"a combined vote total of 45% resulting in an absolute majority of seats ain't PR as far as I'm concerned."
Your system could easily have the same problem, or worse.
But I am not advocating a national PR system, just multi-member local PR.
If we had a fully proportional national list system, I would be comfortable with that, but I am aware that some people value local representation, hence my compromise of constituencies big enough that the result can be fairly represented by who gets elected.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
How about an article about why they named it after the stuff you make plates and cups out of.
Why didn’t they call it “Gold” - is it a sign of a built-in Chinese modesty or was it an early sign that the Chinese recognised that the ordinary cheaper items would be their route to global trade dominance.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
How about an article about why they named it after the stuff you make plates and cups out of.
Why didn’t they call it “Gold” - is it a sign of a built-in Chinese modesty or was it an early sign that the Chinese recognised that the ordinary cheaper items would be their route to global trade dominance.
I, for one, would like to know.
You do realise it isn't called China in Chinese?
Wait, what? Next you will be telling me that they named the material “China” after the country and not the other way round
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
Some good news from the US: (Off topic, but I thought those of you who wish the US well will like it.) The annual Mexico/US celebration in Laredo, Texas came off as it has every year but one, since 1898: "LAREDO, Texas — George Washington started his annual procession to the border just after dawn Saturday, a coterie of children in colonial dress alongside him under the oaks of the red-brick Plaza de San Augustín.
Together they walked toward one of the international bridges that connect the United States and Mexico here, the music of a fife and drum band echoing on the quiet morning streets. Past the cathedral, the American Legion post, the Republic of the Rio Grande Museum.
Yes, that's right, Mexicans and Americans were gathering to celebrate George Washington's brithday. (The bridge is named the "Juárez-Lincoln International Bridge", in honor of two men who worked to restore Mexican independence after Napoleon III installed a Hapsburg ruler there.)
A bit of a shite electoral system where the make up of the government depends on whether a fringe party achieved 4.9% or 5% of the vote.
And a combined vote total of 45% resulting in an absolute majority of seats ain't PR as far as I'm concerned.
But still better than FPTP, mind!
Which system is better?
d'Hondt with minimum 8 member constituencies and candidate order determined by party primaries.
But one of your complaints was
"a combined vote total of 45% resulting in an absolute majority of seats ain't PR as far as I'm concerned."
Your system could easily have the same problem, or worse.
But I am not advocating a national PR system, just multi-member local PR.
If we had a fully proportional national list system, I would be comfortable with that, but I am aware that some people value local representation, hence my compromise of constituencies big enough that the result can be fairly represented by who gets elected.
Fine. But you can't really complain about the lack of total proportionality in PR system with a 5% hurdle, if your preferred system also isn't totally proportional. Indeed it has a higher local hurdle.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
Er, do they?
I only ever slept with one Chinese woman, and she didn't; I can't recall ever noticing any other Chinese women being obviously mammorific.
Han feet and hands can be a bit odd, though. Boney.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Viewcode Good evening CoPilot. I have an acquaintance who needs a brief analysis of China's politics in 2025. He is an arts graduate who can understand reasonably complex English. Can you recommend a useful briefing paper, article or video for him?
CoPilot Good evening! Here are a few resources that provide a comprehensive analysis of China's politics in 2025:
1. **[China 2025: What To Watch](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/new-report-china-2025-what-watch)** by the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. This report forecasts critical developments in China during 2025 and beyond, highlighting domestic challenges and geopolitical tensions.
These resources should provide a solid understanding of the current political climate in China. If you need more information or have any other questions, feel free to ask!
Viewcode Thank you CoPilot. You have been very useful
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
No PBers for the AfD? Hmm, not sure about that.
I would like to think none of this forum are really neo nazis. Which is what the AfD are. Of an order of magnitude nastier than Reform or RN.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
I don't know where I'd fit into that as a Shire Tory that is fairly right-wing.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
How about an article about why they named it after the stuff you make plates and cups out of.
Why didn’t they call it “Gold” - is it a sign of a built-in Chinese modesty or was it an early sign that the Chinese recognised that the ordinary cheaper items would be their route to global trade dominance.
I, for one, would like to know.
You do realise it isn't called China in Chinese?
Wait, what? Next you will be telling me that they named the material “China” after the country and not the other way round
China the crockery is named after China Clay, a constituent. China Clay is named after Gaoling, where the first clay was mined. It's where Kaolin is named from.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
No PBers for the AfD? Hmm, not sure about that.
I would like to think none of this forum are really neo nazis. Which is what the AfD are. Of an order of magnitude nastier than Reform or RN.
I lose track. There was a time when they were economically eurosceptic and just wanted the Deutschmark.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
If reparations are in order, and given Trump's 'negotiations' position:
I want $5 trillion from the USA for our help in Afghanistan and Iraq after *they* were attacked. I want $50 trillion from Russia for our help in WW2 - given that they were on the side on the Nazi's for two years, when we fought alone.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
I don't know where I'd fit into that as a Shire Tory that is fairly right-wing.
CSU rather than CDU, perhaps? It's an odd quirk in the German setup, to be sure.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
No PBers for the AfD? Hmm, not sure about that.
I would like to think none of this forum are really neo nazis. Which is what the AfD are. Of an order of magnitude nastier than Reform or RN.
A bit of a shite electoral system where the make up of the government depends on whether a fringe party achieved 4.9% or 5% of the vote.
And a combined vote total of 45% resulting in an absolute majority of seats ain't PR as far as I'm concerned.
But still better than FPTP, mind!
Which system is better?
d'Hondt with minimum 8 member constituencies and candidate order determined by party primaries.
But one of your complaints was
"a combined vote total of 45% resulting in an absolute majority of seats ain't PR as far as I'm concerned."
Your system could easily have the same problem, or worse.
But I am not advocating a national PR system, just multi-member local PR.
If we had a fully proportional national list system, I would be comfortable with that, but I am aware that some people value local representation, hence my compromise of constituencies big enough that the result can be fairly represented by who gets elected.
Fine. But you can't really complain about the lack of total proportionality in PR system with a 5% hurdle, if your preferred system also isn't totally proportional. Indeed it has a higher local hurdle.
The hurdle distorts what aims to be a nationally fully proportional system.
While I can understand why the hurdle is there, to keep cranks and extremists out of parliament, it doesn't exactly work when such parties get 20% of the vote, and a relatively mainstream party ends up being excluded.
@MoonRabbit I believe it was you that had a theory that Liverpool's second half of the season was going to be much tougher than the first half due to the away fixtures remaining - which didn't make any sense to me as already by that stage Arsenal were the only viable rival and their second half meeting is at Anfield.
With 11 point lead (albeit Arsenal have a game in hand and 11 remaining games I wonder if you still stand by that theory? Especially since interestingly the remaining fixtures not only include hosting Arsenal at Anfield, but 7 of Liverpool's 11 remaining fixtures are at Anfield.
Of course its still "only February" but we're actually only 2 fixtures away from April now.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
I don't know where I'd fit into that as a Shire Tory that is fairly right-wing.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
I don't know where I'd fit into that as a Shire Tory that is fairly right-wing.
CSU rather than CDU, perhaps? It's an odd quirk in the German setup, to be sure.
Yeah, probably - although I'm not Catholic if it's chiefly about that.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
It's too early to say precisely. The ZDF exit poll has them on 20.0%.
No, they have them on 20%
Actually 19.8%
apologise, they have now published to 1 decimal place.
so the fdp and bsw could be polling 4.95, which may be splitting herrs, but is crucial in this case.
Well given there's a 0.9% difference in the exit polls for the Greens, I don't think we need to worry about such precision at this point!
normally I would agree, but in this case 4.95% means 0 seats, and 5.00% means 32 seats, which can have a bearing on the coalition numbers
There is also an exemption from the 5% rule for parties that do particularly well in 3 constituencies, as I recall. Not sure that's relevant here for the FDP or BSW, though.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
No PBers for the AfD? Hmm, not sure about that.
I would like to think none of this forum are really neo nazis. Which is what the AfD are. Of an order of magnitude nastier than Reform or RN.
Well Leon and Glenners were rooting for them in this election. Guess it could be for 'sophisticated' reasons.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
The FDP are fanatically pro-EU, even by Germany's neurotic standards, which I think isn't really how I'd describe Bartholomew, although he can of course contradict me if I've misunderstood his positions. Basically, like many Krauts, they think that economic wisdom involves dumping German exports on other European countries, and damn the consequences for economic instability or financial solvency there.
But I doubt he, or very many other posters on here, strive for a European federal state as the FDP does.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
Er, do they?
I only ever slept with one Chinese woman, and she didn't; I can't recall ever noticing any other Chinese women being obviously mammorific.
Han feet and hands can be a bit odd, though. Boney.
The Chinese women Leon has encountered may be a niche subsection.
While a fusillade of blistering Trump attacks have been launched against other countries – among them places as various as Canada, Denmark, Mexico and Panama – the UK has so far avoided being whacked.
Nobody sentient in Number 10, the Foreign Office or the Ministry of Defence is relaxed now. Not after what has been unleashed over the past 10 days. As a doctrine, “Don’t poke the beast” only worked for so long as the beast chose not to bite off your leg regardless. One question accompanying the prime minister across the Atlantic is how “ballsy” he is prepared to be when he is up close and personal with the US president. Should Trump repeat his smears about Ukraine, the prime minister will have a choice to make. If he responds meekly or mutely, it will be at the great risk of looking pathetically pusillanimous. If he calls it out as a calumny, it will be at the serious peril of making himself the target of the fiery wrath of this thin-skinned and vindictive US president.
I’m told that the prime minister will contend to the president that leaving Europe insecure will undermine the strategic position of the US because it will embolden aggressive moves by China and strengthen Beijing’s ties with Moscow, exactly the opposite of what Washington wants. Sir Keir will also make the case that Europe is now heeding Trump on taking more responsibility for its own security.
Diplomats reckon that there is one approach with the greatest potential to have traction on this occupant of the Oval Office. That is to appeal to his ego and self-interest with the warning that a dirty carve-up of Ukraine on the Kremlin’s terms will project Putin as the apex predator and leave the US president looking like a weak dupe. Kim Darroch, a former UK ambassador to the US, suggests: “If I were Starmer, I would say to Trump that this is your chance for your place in history, the man who brought peace and ended this war. But it has to be a fair deal. If it’s a bad deal, you are not going to get that praise, you are going to get a load of criticism and that will be your record in the history books.”
Vanity is one of the more reliable traits of Donald Trump. Leaning into his narcissism may be undignified, but it may also be essential if Sir Keir is to come home from Washington with anything that he can call a success.
A bit of a shite electoral system where the make up of the government depends on whether a fringe party achieved 4.9% or 5% of the vote.
And a combined vote total of 45% resulting in an absolute majority of seats ain't PR as far as I'm concerned.
But still better than FPTP, mind!
Which system is better?
d'Hondt with minimum 8 member constituencies and candidate order determined by party primaries.
But one of your complaints was
"a combined vote total of 45% resulting in an absolute majority of seats ain't PR as far as I'm concerned."
Your system could easily have the same problem, or worse.
But I am not advocating a national PR system, just multi-member local PR.
If we had a fully proportional national list system, I would be comfortable with that, but I am aware that some people value local representation, hence my compromise of constituencies big enough that the result can be fairly represented by who gets elected.
Fine. But you can't really complain about the lack of total proportionality in PR system with a 5% hurdle, if your preferred system also isn't totally proportional. Indeed it has a higher local hurdle.
The hurdle distorts what aims to be a nationally fully proportional system.
While I can understand why the hurdle is there, to keep cranks and extremists out of parliament, it doesn't exactly work when such parties get 20% of the vote, and a relatively mainstream party ends up being excluded.
It's the numbers really. The FDP never concentrates their vote. They are nowhere near winning a direct seat, whereas the AFD, Linke and Greens all concentrate in some seats. This means the 5% rule is not as stressful for them.
A bit like why the Libdems did well last year, they concentrated a lot of their vote.
I’m told that the prime minister will contend to the president that leaving Europe insecure will undermine the strategic position of the US because it will embolden aggressive moves by China and strengthen Beijing’s ties with Moscow, exactly the opposite of what Washington wants. Sir Keir will also make the case that Europe is now heeding Trump on taking more responsibility for its own security.
The problem is that this comes across as patronising. It's not as though this position isn't well-represented within the internal policy debate in the US.
While a fusillade of blistering Trump attacks have been launched against other countries – among them places as various as Canada, Denmark, Mexico and Panama – the UK has so far avoided being whacked.
Nobody sentient in Number 10, the Foreign Office or the Ministry of Defence is relaxed now. Not after what has been unleashed over the past 10 days. As a doctrine, “Don’t poke the beast” only worked for so long as the beast chose not to bite off your leg regardless. One question accompanying the prime minister across the Atlantic is how “ballsy” he is prepared to be when he is up close and personal with the US president. Should Trump repeat his smears about Ukraine, the prime minister will have a choice to make. If he responds meekly or mutely, it will be at the great risk of looking pathetically pusillanimous. If he calls it out as a calumny, it will be at the serious peril of making himself the target of the fiery wrath of this thin-skinned and vindictive US president.
I’m told that the prime minister will contend to the president that leaving Europe insecure will undermine the strategic position of the US because it will embolden aggressive moves by China and strengthen Beijing’s ties with Moscow, exactly the opposite of what Washington wants. Sir Keir will also make the case that Europe is now heeding Trump on taking more responsibility for its own security.
Diplomats reckon that there is one approach with the greatest potential to have traction on this occupant of the Oval Office. That is to appeal to his ego and self-interest with the warning that a dirty carve-up of Ukraine on the Kremlin’s terms will project Putin as the apex predator and leave the US president looking like a weak dupe. Kim Darroch, a former UK ambassador to the US, suggests: “If I were Starmer, I would say to Trump that this is your chance for your place in history, the man who brought peace and ended this war. But it has to be a fair deal. If it’s a bad deal, you are not going to get that praise, you are going to get a load of criticism and that will be your record in the history books.”
Vanity is one of the more reliable traits of Donald Trump. Leaning into his narcissism may be undignified, but it may also be essential if Sir Keir is to come home from Washington with anything that he can call a success.
Tell Trump that Moscow needs to give$1tr damages to Ukraine.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
The FDP are fanatically pro-EU, even by Germany's neurotic standards, which I think isn't really how I'd describe Bartholomew, although he can of course contradict me if I've misunderstood his positions. Basically, like many Krauts, they think that economic wisdom involves dumping German exports on other European countries, and damn the consequences for economic instability or financial solvency there.
But I doubt he, or very many other posters on here, strive for a European federal state as the FDP does.
A pro-EU Barty bobs.
This is of course the difficulty with cross referencing. I don’t know what I’d be in Germany. I’d probably float between CDU, SDP, FDP and Grune. I know I’d be a Macroniste in France and Democrat in the US but beyond that it’s hard to translate.
Outgoing Chancellor Scholz calls the result 'a bitter election result for the SPD' while still thanking party workers for their efforts
He was effing useless and will not be missed.
Th SPD will be looking a new leader
Scholz was still better than Merkel and Schroeder.
Or rather not as bad.
One thing about Merkel is that she did come down decisively on one side once she shifted her position on something, so it's possible she would have been more effective in making the Zeitenwende happen than Scholz was.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
I can give you a little anecdote, oddly addressing your 'surprisingly big hooters' anecdote.
We had an engineer come over from HK. He had travelled extensively in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, etc), but never been to Europe. When he joined our company, he came over for a fortnight's indoctrination.
A colleague took him into London for the first weekend. Being from HK, the engineer knew English, but not perfectly. On the Monday, I asked him how he had found London.
He said: "Your women, they are so..." and then he put his hands up to his chest and made 'large' motions. After we had stopped laughing, we managed to work out he meant "provocatively dressed'. In other words, they showed cleavage.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
The FDP are fanatically pro-EU, even by Germany's neurotic standards, which I think isn't really how I'd describe Bartholomew, although he can of course contradict me if I've misunderstood his positions. Basically, like many Krauts, they think that economic wisdom involves dumping German exports on other European countries, and damn the consequences for economic instability or financial solvency there.
But I doubt he, or very many other posters on here, strive for a European federal state as the FDP does.
A pro-EU Barty bobs.
This is of course the difficulty with cross referencing. I don’t know what I’d be in Germany. I’d probably float between CDU, SDP, FDP and Grune. I know I’d be a Macroniste in France and Democrat in the US but beyond that it’s hard to translate.
I think I would have to go Green as the FDP in Germany is nothing like today's Libdems.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
Er, do they?
I only ever slept with one Chinese woman, and she didn't; I can't recall ever noticing any other Chinese women being obviously mammorific.
Han feet and hands can be a bit odd, though. Boney.
The Chinese women Leon has encountered may be a niche subsection.
Leon really shouldn’t go using a part of his own anatomy as the measuring stick.
While a fusillade of blistering Trump attacks have been launched against other countries – among them places as various as Canada, Denmark, Mexico and Panama – the UK has so far avoided being whacked.
Nobody sentient in Number 10, the Foreign Office or the Ministry of Defence is relaxed now. Not after what has been unleashed over the past 10 days. As a doctrine, “Don’t poke the beast” only worked for so long as the beast chose not to bite off your leg regardless. One question accompanying the prime minister across the Atlantic is how “ballsy” he is prepared to be when he is up close and personal with the US president. Should Trump repeat his smears about Ukraine, the prime minister will have a choice to make. If he responds meekly or mutely, it will be at the great risk of looking pathetically pusillanimous. If he calls it out as a calumny, it will be at the serious peril of making himself the target of the fiery wrath of this thin-skinned and vindictive US president.
I’m told that the prime minister will contend to the president that leaving Europe insecure will undermine the strategic position of the US because it will embolden aggressive moves by China and strengthen Beijing’s ties with Moscow, exactly the opposite of what Washington wants. Sir Keir will also make the case that Europe is now heeding Trump on taking more responsibility for its own security.
Diplomats reckon that there is one approach with the greatest potential to have traction on this occupant of the Oval Office. That is to appeal to his ego and self-interest with the warning that a dirty carve-up of Ukraine on the Kremlin’s terms will project Putin as the apex predator and leave the US president looking like a weak dupe. Kim Darroch, a former UK ambassador to the US, suggests: “If I were Starmer, I would say to Trump that this is your chance for your place in history, the man who brought peace and ended this war. But it has to be a fair deal. If it’s a bad deal, you are not going to get that praise, you are going to get a load of criticism and that will be your record in the history books.”
Vanity is one of the more reliable traits of Donald Trump. Leaning into his narcissism may be undignified, but it may also be essential if Sir Keir is to come home from Washington with anything that he can call a success.
If possible, it would be desirable for Starmer to educate Trump that VAT in the UK is a form of sales tax on all goods, whatever their origin, not a tariff just on imported goods, so does not discriminate against imports from the USA.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
Blinkered view
AfD + BSW+Linke is 33%.
So a third of Germans are voting for the extremes.
Politically something is going wrong.
A third of the US is hardcore MAGA. Seems to be a thing.
And about a half of the one third are in the gutter. That 15% crops up with genuine far right sentiment in poll after poll. Any populist party that can add a big slice of the general protest vote to that is in business.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
Er, do they?
I only ever slept with one Chinese woman, and she didn't; I can't recall ever noticing any other Chinese women being obviously mammorific.
Han feet and hands can be a bit odd, though. Boney.
The Chinese women Leon has encountered may be a niche subsection.
Leon really shouldn’t go using a part of his own anatomy as the measuring stick.
So we are back to the conversation about three and a half inch floppies.
SPD 116 CDU/CSU 211 Greens 98 AfD 142 Left 62 SSW 1
630 seats, so 315ish needed for a majority
SPD+Green+Left = 276 so won't work CDU/CSU + Green = 309 might work CDU/CSU+AfD = 353 so will work, but um... CDU/CSU+SPD = 327, which will work but be hysterical
So there y'go. Musk bought another election. Bad Musk.
Thank fuck the AfD don't look like getting more than 20%. We can just about live with the neo-fascists being supported by only 1 in 5 voters.
And yet the centre left - for so long dominant in Germany - have fallen BEHIND the Far Right
Because this was all being predicted by the polls it seems shrug-worthy. It is not. It is seismic
The Uniparty have won the election.
In German terms the Greens really belong in the centre left too. I’d say they fit the niche that the Lib Dems plus the rural NIMBY greens have in Britain. Plus a touch of idiocy on nuclear power just to pep things up a bit.
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
The FDP are fanatically pro-EU, even by Germany's neurotic standards, which I think isn't really how I'd describe Bartholomew, although he can of course contradict me if I've misunderstood his positions. Basically, like many Krauts, they think that economic wisdom involves dumping German exports on other European countries, and damn the consequences for economic instability or financial solvency there.
But I doubt he, or very many other posters on here, strive for a European federal state as the FDP does.
From what I know of German parties (not much, admittedly) I would support the FDP if I were German.
Germany's position in the EU isn't an issue like Britain's was. In addition my view of the EU is more nuanced than people think. I was pro EU until the referendum and only narrowly voted Leave, I could have voted Remain. But I'm passionately pro democracy more than anti EU.
Having voted to Leave, we had to Leave in my eyes. That's been done now. Germany hasn't so voted, so it's not an issue there.
Besides there is an integrity to believing in European federalism that I respect. If you want to have a federal state then argue that, if you don't, then don't hand the powers over but deny that's what you want.
While a fusillade of blistering Trump attacks have been launched against other countries – among them places as various as Canada, Denmark, Mexico and Panama – the UK has so far avoided being whacked.
Nobody sentient in Number 10, the Foreign Office or the Ministry of Defence is relaxed now. Not after what has been unleashed over the past 10 days. As a doctrine, “Don’t poke the beast” only worked for so long as the beast chose not to bite off your leg regardless. One question accompanying the prime minister across the Atlantic is how “ballsy” he is prepared to be when he is up close and personal with the US president. Should Trump repeat his smears about Ukraine, the prime minister will have a choice to make. If he responds meekly or mutely, it will be at the great risk of looking pathetically pusillanimous. If he calls it out as a calumny, it will be at the serious peril of making himself the target of the fiery wrath of this thin-skinned and vindictive US president.
I’m told that the prime minister will contend to the president that leaving Europe insecure will undermine the strategic position of the US because it will embolden aggressive moves by China and strengthen Beijing’s ties with Moscow, exactly the opposite of what Washington wants. Sir Keir will also make the case that Europe is now heeding Trump on taking more responsibility for its own security.
Diplomats reckon that there is one approach with the greatest potential to have traction on this occupant of the Oval Office. That is to appeal to his ego and self-interest with the warning that a dirty carve-up of Ukraine on the Kremlin’s terms will project Putin as the apex predator and leave the US president looking like a weak dupe. Kim Darroch, a former UK ambassador to the US, suggests: “If I were Starmer, I would say to Trump that this is your chance for your place in history, the man who brought peace and ended this war. But it has to be a fair deal. If it’s a bad deal, you are not going to get that praise, you are going to get a load of criticism and that will be your record in the history books.”
Vanity is one of the more reliable traits of Donald Trump. Leaning into his narcissism may be undignified, but it may also be essential if Sir Keir is to come home from Washington with anything that he can call a success.
If possible, it would be desirable for Starmer to educate Trump that VAT in the UK is a form of sales tax on all goods, whatever their origin, not a tariff just on imported goods, so does not discriminate against imports from the USA.
"Educate" Trump. Now there's a challenging assignment.
So KPD v NSDAP rerun to come? Tomorrow not belonging to the yokels on those numbers.
Young voters always vote more left than average and the far right tend to do better amongst young voters and voters of working age than pensioners, the latter have experience, are wary of extremes and have built up more capital
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
Er, do they?
I only ever slept with one Chinese woman, and she didn't; I can't recall ever noticing any other Chinese women being obviously mammorific.
Han feet and hands can be a bit odd, though. Boney.
The Chinese women Leon has encountered may be a niche subsection.
Leon really shouldn’t go using a part of his own anatomy as the measuring stick.
Presumably it's rather more variable in length than the standard platinum-iridium bar they used to use (and that was bad enough - I know someone who knows about that sort of thing). So no.
The 34 years since reunification has (so far?) failed to erase the differences established during 45 years under Soviet rule.
I think "failed to erase the differences" is perhaps the wrong way of looking at it. The way reunification was handled created new divisions all of its own.
AIUI the young and ambitious headed west. Those left behind in the east (in both senses) saw their progress and felt embittered and voted to upset the apple cart. Originally Die Linke and increasingly AfD as those who remember the actual Nazis die off
I’m told that the prime minister will contend to the president that leaving Europe insecure will undermine the strategic position of the US because it will embolden aggressive moves by China and strengthen Beijing’s ties with Moscow, exactly the opposite of what Washington wants. Sir Keir will also make the case that Europe is now heeding Trump on taking more responsibility for its own security.
The problem is that this comes across as patronising. It's not as though this position isn't well-represented within the internal policy debate in the US.
Pretty much everything you say to Trump is going to be patronising.
Either that or incredibly rude. Thems the choices.
Tomorrow I have to write about China for the Knapper’s Gazette
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
How about an article about why they named it after the stuff you make plates and cups out of.
Why didn’t they call it “Gold” - is it a sign of a built-in Chinese modesty or was it an early sign that the Chinese recognised that the ordinary cheaper items would be their route to global trade dominance.
I, for one, would like to know.
You do realise it isn't called China in Chinese?
The name China probably came indirectly from the Qin dynasty (the terracotta warriors man). The Mandarin (north Chinese) name for Chinese is Han, the next dynasty, while the same name in Cantonese is Tong, or Tang, a much later dynasty reflecting the later colonisation of south China.
So arguably it was called China in Chinese at one point.
Comments
World events moving very swiftly.
SPD 16.2%
CDU/CSU 28.9%
Green 13.0%
FDP 4.9%
AFD 19.9%
Left 8.5%
BSW 4.8%
Others 3.8%
Source https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2025-02-23-BT-DE/index-content.shtml
Manually typed, so apologies for any errors
I think it's too early to say if voters will have the same sentiment in 2028/2029. Quite possible but I don't think this vote tells us much in that regard.
Labour in 2028? They are favourites to win again and I agree with that. But 4 years is a long long time. Esp at our age.
SPD 118
CDU/CSU 210
Greens 94
AfD 145
Left 62
SSW 1
630 seats, so 315ish needed for a majority
Source https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2025-02-23-BT-DE/charts/index-content/chart_1845705.shtml
Manually typed, so apologies for any errors
For the moment for historical reasons the main parties have a firewall to keep the AfD out
I would cross reference as follows:
CDU/CSU: @Big_G_NorthWales and @MarqueeMark plus blue wall former Tory Lib Dems plus some Blairites
SPD: @OnlyLivingBoy, some Blairites plus a chunk of Lib Dems
Green: @SandyRentool, UK rural Green Party plus some soft left and the greener Lib Dems
Linke: @NickPalmer , the nicer Corbynites, and the NUS
BSW: @bigjohnowls plus some of our Saturday visitors
AfD: Reform plus a bit of EDL
FDP: @BartholomewRoberts
"a combined vote total of 45% resulting in an absolute majority of seats ain't PR as far as I'm concerned."
Your system could easily have the same problem, or worse.
EDIT beaten to I see
No idea what to say. I might say that young Chinese women have surprisingly big hooters - which they do - but I’m not sure I can maintain that level of sophisticated political analysis over 1200 words
Ideas welcome
Why didn’t they call it “Gold” - is it a sign of a built-in Chinese modesty or was it an early sign that the Chinese recognised that the ordinary cheaper items would be their route to global trade dominance.
I, for one, would like to know.
But that map doesn't tell you very much about how parties are doing in different areas, it only shows the predicted biggest party in each constituency.
And which parties do you mean based on that map? The SPD?
https://x.com/wahlen_de/status/1893722905793499287
LINKE: 27% (+19)
AfD: 19% (+13)
Union: 14% (+4)
SPD: 13% (-2)
GRÜNE: 11% (-12)
BSW: 6% (NEU)
FDP: 5% (-18)
If we had a fully proportional national list system, I would be comfortable with that, but I am aware that some people value local representation, hence my compromise of constituencies big enough that the result can be fairly represented by who gets elected.
The annual Mexico/US celebration in Laredo, Texas came off as it has every year but one, since 1898:
"LAREDO, Texas — George Washington started his annual procession to the border just after dawn Saturday, a coterie of children in colonial dress alongside him under the oaks of the red-brick Plaza de San Augustín.
Together they walked toward one of the international bridges that connect the United States and Mexico here, the music of a fife and drum band echoing on the quiet morning streets. Past the cathedral, the American Legion post, the Republic of the Rio Grande Museum.
Finally the founding father and his entourage arrived, coming midspan to greet his counterpart — Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla, the father of Mexican independence. Youngsters from both sides hugged. The crowd cheered."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/22/laredo-george-washington-bridge-ceremony-mexico/
Yes, that's right, Mexicans and Americans were gathering to celebrate George Washington's brithday. (The bridge is named the "Juárez-Lincoln International Bridge", in honor of two men who worked to restore Mexican independence after Napoleon III installed a Hapsburg ruler there.)
Seems to be a thing.
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten
I might be being unfair on one of them in that...
Great.
I only ever slept with one Chinese woman, and she didn't; I can't recall ever noticing any other Chinese women being obviously mammorific.
Han feet and hands can be a bit odd, though. Boney.
Is somebody off sick?
Good evening CoPilot. I have an acquaintance who needs a brief analysis of China's politics in 2025. He is an arts graduate who can understand reasonably complex English. Can you recommend a useful briefing paper, article or video for him?
CoPilot
Good evening! Here are a few resources that provide a comprehensive analysis of China's politics in 2025:
- 1. **[China 2025: What To Watch](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/new-report-china-2025-what-watch)** by the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. This report forecasts critical developments in China during 2025 and beyond, highlighting domestic challenges and geopolitical tensions.
- 2. **[China Politics 2025: Stronger as Xi Goes](https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-forecast-politics-2025-stronger-as-xi-jinping-goes/)** by MacroPolo. This article discusses the political landscape under Xi Jinping's leadership and the focus on domestic priorities.
- 3. **[China 2025: A Pivotal Year Amidst Domestic and Geopolitical Challenges](https://theunn.com/china-2025-a-pivotal-year-amidst-domestic-and-geopolitical-challenges/)**. This article emphasizes the challenges China faces on both domestic and international fronts, including U.S.-China relations and tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
These resources should provide a solid understanding of the current political climate in China. If you need more information or have any other questions, feel free to ask!Viewcode
Thank you CoPilot. You have been very useful
I want $5 trillion from the USA for our help in Afghanistan and Iraq after *they* were attacked.
I want $50 trillion from Russia for our help in WW2 - given that they were on the side on the Nazi's for two years, when we fought alone.
Seems fair.
While I can understand why the hurdle is there, to keep cranks and extremists out of parliament, it doesn't exactly work when such parties get 20% of the vote, and a relatively mainstream party ends up being excluded.
With 11 point lead (albeit Arsenal have a game in hand and 11 remaining games I wonder if you still stand by that theory? Especially since interestingly the remaining fixtures not only include hosting Arsenal at Anfield, but 7 of Liverpool's 11 remaining fixtures are at Anfield.
Of course its still "only February" but we're actually only 2 fixtures away from April now.
That said, I'm also not German.
But I doubt he, or very many other posters on here, strive for a European federal state as the FDP does.
https://www.foxnews.com/
While a fusillade of blistering Trump attacks have been launched against other countries – among them places as various as Canada, Denmark, Mexico and Panama – the UK has so far avoided being whacked.
Nobody sentient in Number 10, the Foreign Office or the Ministry of Defence is relaxed now. Not after what has been unleashed over the past 10 days. As a doctrine, “Don’t poke the beast” only worked for so long as the beast chose not to bite off your leg regardless. One question accompanying the prime minister across the Atlantic is how “ballsy” he is prepared to be when he is up close and personal with the US president. Should Trump repeat his smears about Ukraine, the prime minister will have a choice to make. If he responds meekly or mutely, it will be at the great risk of looking pathetically pusillanimous. If he calls it out as a calumny, it will be at the serious peril of making himself the target of the fiery wrath of this thin-skinned and vindictive US president.
I’m told that the prime minister will contend to the president that leaving Europe insecure will undermine the strategic position of the US because it will embolden aggressive moves by China and strengthen Beijing’s ties with Moscow, exactly the opposite of what Washington wants. Sir Keir will also make the case that Europe is now heeding Trump on taking more responsibility for its own security.
Diplomats reckon that there is one approach with the greatest potential to have traction on this occupant of the Oval Office. That is to appeal to his ego and self-interest with the warning that a dirty carve-up of Ukraine on the Kremlin’s terms will project Putin as the apex predator and leave the US president looking like a weak dupe. Kim Darroch, a former UK ambassador to the US, suggests: “If I were Starmer, I would say to Trump that this is your chance for your place in history, the man who brought peace and ended this war. But it has to be a fair deal. If it’s a bad deal, you are not going to get that praise, you are going to get a load of criticism and that will be your record in the history books.”
Vanity is one of the more reliable traits of Donald Trump. Leaning into his narcissism may be undignified, but it may also be essential if Sir Keir is to come home from Washington with anything that he can call a success.
Or rather not as bad.
A bit like why the Libdems did well last year, they concentrated a lot of their vote.
With Scholtz's weak position over Ukraine, I'd probably vote Green ahead of SPD.
I know it’s Germany and all that, but each party ending up with 0.0 or 0.5 is just too neat to be plausible
I would block twitter for a start, it's just shitty propaganda from a psycho foreign power-mad oligarch. Wouldn't be losing anything of value.
50% of which will then be remitted to the USA.
This is of course the difficulty with cross referencing. I don’t know what I’d be in Germany. I’d probably float between CDU, SDP, FDP and Grune. I know I’d be a Macroniste in France and Democrat in the US but beyond that it’s hard to translate.
SPD 16.2%
CDU/CSU 28.8%
Green 12.7%
FDP 4.9%
AFD 20.2%
Left 8.5%
BSW 4.8%
Others 3.9%
Source https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2025-02-23-BT-DE/charts/index-content/chart_1846232.shtml
Manually typed, so apologies for any errors
We had an engineer come over from HK. He had travelled extensively in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, etc), but never been to Europe. When he joined our company, he came over for a fortnight's indoctrination.
A colleague took him into London for the first weekend. Being from HK, the engineer knew English, but not perfectly. On the Monday, I asked him how he had found London.
He said: "Your women, they are so..." and then he put his hands up to his chest and made 'large' motions. After we had stopped laughing, we managed to work out he meant "provocatively dressed'. In other words, they showed cleavage.
And, no, it will never be.
Tomorrow not belonging to the yokels on those numbers.
SPD 118
CDU/CSU 210
Green 92
AFD 147
Left 62
SSW 1
630 seats, so 315ish needed for a majority
Source https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2025-02-23-BT-DE/charts/index-content/chart_1846236.shtml
Manually typed, so apologies for any errors
Germany's position in the EU isn't an issue like Britain's was. In addition my view of the EU is more nuanced than people think. I was pro EU until the referendum and only narrowly voted Leave, I could have voted Remain. But I'm passionately pro democracy more than anti EU.
Having voted to Leave, we had to Leave in my eyes. That's been done now. Germany hasn't so voted, so it's not an issue there.
Besides there is an integrity to believing in European federalism that I respect. If you want to have a federal state then argue that, if you don't, then don't hand the powers over but deny that's what you want.
embittered and voted to upset the apple cart. Originally Die Linke and increasingly AfD as those who remember the actual Nazis die off
Either that or incredibly rude. Thems the choices.
So arguably it was called China in Chinese at one point.