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The German election thread – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,358
edited March 8 in General
The German election thread – politicalbetting.com

YouGov's final MRP of the 2025 German election shows a clear lead for the Christian Democrats, with gains for the AfD and The LeftCSU/CSU: 220 seats (+23 from 2021)AfD: 145 (+62)SPD: 115 (-91)Greens: 94 (-24)The Left: 55 (+16)BSW: 0 (New)FDP: 0 (-91)

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188
    FPT, @DoubleCarpet posted this.

    Germany

    Polls close 5pm GMT

    https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/livestreams/livestream1

    https://www.ardmediathek.de/live

    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten-sendungen/zdfspezial/bundestagswahl-2025-zdf-wahlstudio-1-100.html

    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundeswahlleiter.html

    ZDF might be geoblocked but hopefully some of the TV links will work!

    Please post any good links especially live result maps.

    First seat results should be in within 2 hours or so of poll close, final results could be midnight or later.

    Expecting AfD to win all states in the east except Berlin, CSU obviously wins Bavaria, SPD may hold Bremen, Berlin and Hamburg could be tight, while CDU should win all the other Lander.

    Will be looking to see whether FDP and BSW clear the 5% threshold, recent polls suggest Linke should be comfortably over. Will the 8-9 or so point polling gap between the Union and AfD hold in the exit poll or will the AfD have underpolled and the CDU/CSU overpolled?

    The more parties in the new Bundestag, the more complex coalition building becomes. Given that tonight will be the SPD's worst postwar result, Scholz should resign as leader tonight if he has any sense/dignity but will stay as caretaker Chancellor while Merz forms a new government.

    Depends on the numbers but new government should be either GroKo (Union + SPD, as per 3/4 of the Merkel govts), Kiwi (Union + Green) or quite possibly a Kenya (all three).

    However, given that what leaders say before election day and what they say once the results are in can often be different things, so if all of the above options collapse (Austria is now on its 3rd attempt to form a new government), I think there's an outside chance of a CDU/CSU government with AfD confidence and supply, would be a last resort, but if all other options have been tried and failed, I don't think it can be completely ruled out.

    Many thanks,

    DC
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    Zwei
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,049
    FPT:
    JohnO said:

    Looking like a very high turnout in Germany with 52% voting by 2.00pm CET. Was only 36.5% at this stage in 2021 and low forties in previous elections.

    Any thoughts on who that favours?

    Radicals turning out because they finally have something exciting to vote for?

    Normies who may be hacked off with the government but like Trump and Musk even less?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    Looking at this MRP, Ladbrokes 3/1 on AfD 15-20% looks good value.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,328
    Fpt
    Jim_Miller said:

    Kamski - Since you are here, a question that has bothered me for years: Does the CDU/CSU split reflect the old Protestant/Catholic split in Germany?

    It’s Bavaria/rest of Germany. Bavarian is Catholic but not the only Catholic part of Germany.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Alles fur die rugby
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    A Kiwi coalition will never get off the ground.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    Stuartinromford said:

    FPT:

    JohnO said:

    Looking like a very high turnout in Germany with 52% voting by 2.00pm CET. Was only 36.5% at this stage in 2021 and low forties in previous elections.

    Any thoughts on who that favours?

    Radicals turning out because they finally have something exciting to vote for?

    Normies who may be hacked off with the government but like Trump and Musk even less?
    Linke voters? They're the ones on a surge.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    FPT
    StillWaters said:

    kamski said:

    StillWaters said:

    williamglenn said:

    kamski said:

    williamglenn said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Any predictions for the German election? I think it could be closer for 1st place than expected.

    Especially if you count the CDU and CSU separately.
    I predicted yesterday this would be your line. Of course it's misleading to count them separately, but misleading is a step up from your usual lies.
    It's not meaningless to separate them because we could end up with a scenario where the Union parties have to vote against their own Chancellor candidate to avoid the spectre of a minority government on AfD votes. Will the CDU and CSU necessaritly see eye-to-eye on this?
    Cute. Another narrative to push - a moderate government dependent on tacit support from neo-Nazis


    That's not going to happen.
    I know. But you can see @williamglenn preparing the narrative

    CDU not a majority
    CDU + CSU a majority
    CDU + AFD a majority

    A CSU/CSU government suddenly becomes a minority government dependent on tacit support from the AFD.

    The building blocks are correct even if the conclusion is erroneous. But that’s enough to support the narrative
    No, you misunderstood the scenario I was outlining.

    If CDU + CSU are the largest bloc but not a majority and every majority coalition is ruled out then ordinarily a minority CDU/CSU government would be logical, but the left-wing parties can effectively veto it unless the CDU/CSU break the 'firewall' and rely on AfD votes. The only way the CDU/CSU could avoid this would be to vote against their own candidate and clear the path for a left-wing coalition to take over.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 928
    SandyRentool said:

    A Kiwi coalition will never get off the ground.

    Last Austrian govt was a Kiwi.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    Another go-around at LBA, but the Ryanair from Marrakesh made it down at the second attempt.

    Skies are getting a bit crowded round here.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243
    SandyRentool said:

    A Kiwi coalition will never get off the ground.

    If CDU/CSU and SPD combined don't have a majority then there will be limited alternative options. No chance AfD is involved.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001
    I’m a bit nonplussed by the advert for the Army in the half time ads - a female soldier stops an exercise on somewhere like Salisbury plain and everything freezes. She asks what’s in the Amry for her and is surrounded by a group of other women and a football and trophy and she says how she gets to play her favourite sport.

    Now I can be a little old fashioned but is being able to play football the big deal clincher to get thousands to join the army? I have heard that women are actually able to play football anytime now so possibly no need to join up to do it?

    We have a recruitment problem you say? Not sure this ad is the answer.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461


    Always better to look at the distribution maps, than raw, nationwide percentages.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    boulay said:

    I’m a bit nonplussed by the advert for the Army in the half time ads - a female soldier stops an exercise on somewhere like Salisbury plain and everything freezes. She asks what’s in the Amry for her and is surrounded by a group of other women and a football and trophy and she says how she gets to play her favourite sport.

    Now I can be a little old fashioned but is being able to play football the big deal clincher to get thousands to join the army? I have heard that women are actually able to play football anytime now so possibly no need to join up to do it?

    We have a recruitment problem you say? Not sure this ad is the answer.

    There is an entire episode of The Hollowmen dedicated to military recruitment ads.

    The politicians want ads showing war, the forces wants ads showing recreation and camaraderie, no bombs or bullets anywhere.

    Which if you look at the "made in the Royal Navy" ads, seems to be exactly where we ended up.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    This is what passes for news on the BBC now. Well worth the license fee !

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgl62ppp16o
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    I make a gag about a flightless bird, and people think I'm offering an insight into German politics!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871
    boulay said:

    I’m a bit nonplussed by the advert for the Army in the half time ads - a female soldier stops an exercise on somewhere like Salisbury plain and everything freezes. She asks what’s in the Amry for her and is surrounded by a group of other women and a football and trophy and she says how she gets to play her favourite sport.

    Now I can be a little old fashioned but is being able to play football the big deal clincher to get thousands to join the army? I have heard that women are actually able to play football anytime now so possibly no need to join up to do it?

    We have a recruitment problem you say? Not sure this ad is the answer.

    A few top female sportswomen have been in the army in their career - Kelly Holmes being one, and there was a rower ISTR won at the Olympics.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,996
    boulay said:

    I’m a bit nonplussed by the advert for the Army in the half time ads - a female soldier stops an exercise on somewhere like Salisbury plain and everything freezes. She asks what’s in the Amry for her and is surrounded by a group of other women and a football and trophy and she says how she gets to play her favourite sport.

    Now I can be a little old fashioned but is being able to play football the big deal clincher to get thousands to join the army? I have heard that women are actually able to play football anytime now so possibly no need to join up to do it?

    We have a recruitment problem you say? Not sure this ad is the answer.

    Is not the aim to show that the Army isn't all freezing drills but also gives you social support and fun?

    Rather like a lot of jobs emphasising employee perks - especially when the pay isn't spectacular - as a way of convincing someone to choose that job over another one.

    People thinking of joining up are probably aware of the 'soldiering' bit about being in the army, but probably aren't of say, the benefits that are there to attract and retain staff like access to its sports clubs or the opportunities it can offer away from your duties.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    Got Die Basis on that who should you vote for quiz, not sure how serious my answers were though
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397
    SandyRentool said:

    Another go-around at LBA, but the Ryanair from Marrakesh made it down at the second attempt.

    Skies are getting a bit crowded round here.

    Whoever thought LBA was the perfect place for an airport needs their head examined..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835
    Ratters said:

    SandyRentool said:

    A Kiwi coalition will never get off the ground.

    If CDU/CSU and SPD combined don't have a majority then there will be limited alternative options. No chance AfD is involved.
    If BSW and FDP don't make it into Parliament, that means that only about 84-85% of votes did. That means you only need 42% or so for a majority.

    What this means is that -if the CDU/CSU is on 30%- then they need a further 12% or so. It's entirely possible they could get there with any one of SPD, AfD or Greens.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT, @DoubleCarpet posted this.

    Germany

    Polls close 5pm GMT

    https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/livestreams/livestream1

    https://www.ardmediathek.de/live

    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten-sendungen/zdfspezial/bundestagswahl-2025-zdf-wahlstudio-1-100.html

    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundeswahlleiter.html

    ZDF might be geoblocked but hopefully some of the TV links will work!

    Please post any good links especially live result maps.

    First seat results should be in within 2 hours or so of poll close, final results could be midnight or later.

    Expecting AfD to win all states in the east except Berlin, CSU obviously wins Bavaria, SPD may hold Bremen, Berlin and Hamburg could be tight, while CDU should win all the other Lander.

    Will be looking to see whether FDP and BSW clear the 5% threshold, recent polls suggest Linke should be comfortably over. Will the 8-9 or so point polling gap between the Union and AfD hold in the exit poll or will the AfD have underpolled and the CDU/CSU overpolled?

    The more parties in the new Bundestag, the more complex coalition building becomes. Given that tonight will be the SPD's worst postwar result, Scholz should resign as leader tonight if he has any sense/dignity but will stay as caretaker Chancellor while Merz forms a new government.

    Depends on the numbers but new government should be either GroKo (Union + SPD, as per 3/4 of the Merkel govts), Kiwi (Union + Green) or quite possibly a Kenya (all three).

    However, given that what leaders say before election day and what they say once the results are in can often be different things, so if all of the above options collapse (Austria is now on its 3rd attempt to form a new government), I think there's an outside chance of a CDU/CSU government with AfD confidence and supply, would be a last resort, but if all other options have been tried and failed, I don't think it can be completely ruled out.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Not sure what Scholz is supposed to "resign as leader" of tonight?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 928
    My main regret watching the German TV coverage is that I did Latin rather than German at school :(
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    Pulpstar said:

    Got Die Basis on that who should you vote for quiz, not sure how serious my answers were though

    You realise they are a kind of far-right fringe party?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 928
    kamski said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT, @DoubleCarpet posted this.

    Germany

    Polls close 5pm GMT

    https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/livestreams/livestream1

    https://www.ardmediathek.de/live

    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten-sendungen/zdfspezial/bundestagswahl-2025-zdf-wahlstudio-1-100.html

    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundeswahlleiter.html

    ZDF might be geoblocked but hopefully some of the TV links will work!

    Please post any good links especially live result maps.

    First seat results should be in within 2 hours or so of poll close, final results could be midnight or later.

    Expecting AfD to win all states in the east except Berlin, CSU obviously wins Bavaria, SPD may hold Bremen, Berlin and Hamburg could be tight, while CDU should win all the other Lander.

    Will be looking to see whether FDP and BSW clear the 5% threshold, recent polls suggest Linke should be comfortably over. Will the 8-9 or so point polling gap between the Union and AfD hold in the exit poll or will the AfD have underpolled and the CDU/CSU overpolled?

    The more parties in the new Bundestag, the more complex coalition building becomes. Given that tonight will be the SPD's worst postwar result, Scholz should resign as leader tonight if he has any sense/dignity but will stay as caretaker Chancellor while Merz forms a new government.

    Depends on the numbers but new government should be either GroKo (Union + SPD, as per 3/4 of the Merkel govts), Kiwi (Union + Green) or quite possibly a Kenya (all three).

    However, given that what leaders say before election day and what they say once the results are in can often be different things, so if all of the above options collapse (Austria is now on its 3rd attempt to form a new government), I think there's an outside chance of a CDU/CSU government with AfD confidence and supply, would be a last resort, but if all other options have been tried and failed, I don't think it can be completely ruled out.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Not sure what Scholz is supposed to "resign as leader" of tonight?
    The SPD.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Tight match in Rome
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    @PippaCrerar
    NEW: President Zelenskyy is asked if he'd “give up” being Ukrainian president in exchange for peace.

    “Yes, I am happy, if it is for the peace of Ukraine. If you need me to leave this chair, I am ready to do that, and I also can exchange it for Nato membership for Ukraine."

    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1893696629783294457
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    boulay said:

    I’m a bit nonplussed by the advert for the Army in the half time ads - a female soldier stops an exercise on somewhere like Salisbury plain and everything freezes. She asks what’s in the Amry for her and is surrounded by a group of other women and a football and trophy and she says how she gets to play her favourite sport.

    Now I can be a little old fashioned but is being able to play football the big deal clincher to get thousands to join the army? I have heard that women are actually able to play football anytime now so possibly no need to join up to do it?

    We have a recruitment problem you say? Not sure this ad is the answer.

    Twas ever thus:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/ab/British_Army_Recruitment_poster.JPG
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    Malmesbury said:



    Always better to look at the distribution maps, than raw, nationwide percentages.

    why? the nationwide percentages of the party vote are what count.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243
    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    SandyRentool said:

    A Kiwi coalition will never get off the ground.

    If CDU/CSU and SPD combined don't have a majority then there will be limited alternative options. No chance AfD is involved.
    If BSW and FDP don't make it into Parliament, that means that only about 84-85% of votes did. That means you only need 42% or so for a majority.

    What this means is that -if the CDU/CSU is on 30%- then they need a further 12% or so. It's entirely possible they could get there with any one of SPD, AfD or Greens.
    Agreed. If only 5 parties make it past 5% then CDU/CSU will likely have their pick of partners.

    If 7 parties make it past 5% then they may be forced to combine with both SPD and Greens (assuming AfD are off the cards).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    SandyRentool said:

    A Kiwi coalition will never get off the ground.

    If CDU/CSU and SPD combined don't have a majority then there will be limited alternative options. No chance AfD is involved.
    If BSW and FDP don't make it into Parliament, that means that only about 84-85% of votes did. That means you only need 42% or so for a majority.

    What this means is that -if the CDU/CSU is on 30%- then they need a further 12% or so. It's entirely possible they could get there with any one of SPD, AfD or Greens.
    Of those SPD is surely the most likely.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    DoubleCarpet said:

    kamski said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT, @DoubleCarpet posted this.

    Germany

    Polls close 5pm GMT

    https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/livestreams/livestream1

    https://www.ardmediathek.de/live

    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten-sendungen/zdfspezial/bundestagswahl-2025-zdf-wahlstudio-1-100.html

    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundeswahlleiter.html

    ZDF might be geoblocked but hopefully some of the TV links will work!

    Please post any good links especially live result maps.

    First seat results should be in within 2 hours or so of poll close, final results could be midnight or later.

    Expecting AfD to win all states in the east except Berlin, CSU obviously wins Bavaria, SPD may hold Bremen, Berlin and Hamburg could be tight, while CDU should win all the other Lander.

    Will be looking to see whether FDP and BSW clear the 5% threshold, recent polls suggest Linke should be comfortably over. Will the 8-9 or so point polling gap between the Union and AfD hold in the exit poll or will the AfD have underpolled and the CDU/CSU overpolled?

    The more parties in the new Bundestag, the more complex coalition building becomes. Given that tonight will be the SPD's worst postwar result, Scholz should resign as leader tonight if he has any sense/dignity but will stay as caretaker Chancellor while Merz forms a new government.

    Depends on the numbers but new government should be either GroKo (Union + SPD, as per 3/4 of the Merkel govts), Kiwi (Union + Green) or quite possibly a Kenya (all three).

    However, given that what leaders say before election day and what they say once the results are in can often be different things, so if all of the above options collapse (Austria is now on its 3rd attempt to form a new government), I think there's an outside chance of a CDU/CSU government with AfD confidence and supply, would be a last resort, but if all other options have been tried and failed, I don't think it can be completely ruled out.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Not sure what Scholz is supposed to "resign as leader" of tonight?
    The SPD.
    Which he isn't leader of.

    I mean de facto as chancellor/chancellor-candidate he is sort of "leader" of the SPD, but he will remain as Chancellor until a new coalition is ready, so what is he going to resign as leader of?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 928
    More links...

    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse.html - official results

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8U3zJyjLG4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoS6ifYUFeA
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,711
    edited February 23
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    SandyRentool said:

    A Kiwi coalition will never get off the ground.

    If CDU/CSU and SPD combined don't have a majority then there will be limited alternative options. No chance AfD is involved.
    If BSW and FDP don't make it into Parliament, that means that only about 84-85% of votes did. That means you only need 42% or so for a majority.

    What this means is that -if the CDU/CSU is on 30%- then they need a further 12% or so. It's entirely possible they could get there with any one of SPD, AfD or Greens.
    Of those SPD is surely the most likely.
    They might decline. Junior coalition partner is rather a poisoned chalice.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 573
    On the German election. AfD and presumably BSW if over 5% are uncoalitionable. It is impossible to form a coalition without the CDU running it if they are the largest party, or even second to AfD.
    The FDP if over 5% can't be in government with the Greens.
    So we are left with:
    CDU/CSU plus SPD. Hopefully this has a majority.
    CDU/CSU (with not much enthusiam fromthe latter) plus Greens. Not a very likely end result, but fantastic if it looks adds up to over half the MPs because it will put Merz in a better negotiating position as there is more than one option.
    Lastly the possibility if FDP or BSW or both get MPs and so CDU/CSU plus SPD can't get a majority. This would be very tricky.
    I do hope AfD will not do well, because I fear that Elon Musk will question the legitimacy of the new coalition without them, and get told to do one, undermining Europe/US relations.
    We will soon see.
    .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    Malmesbury said:



    Always better to look at the distribution maps, than raw, nationwide percentages.

    Reunification worked then.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 928
    kamski said:

    DoubleCarpet said:

    kamski said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT, @DoubleCarpet posted this.

    Germany

    Polls close 5pm GMT

    https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/livestreams/livestream1

    https://www.ardmediathek.de/live

    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten-sendungen/zdfspezial/bundestagswahl-2025-zdf-wahlstudio-1-100.html

    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundeswahlleiter.html

    ZDF might be geoblocked but hopefully some of the TV links will work!

    Please post any good links especially live result maps.

    First seat results should be in within 2 hours or so of poll close, final results could be midnight or later.

    Expecting AfD to win all states in the east except Berlin, CSU obviously wins Bavaria, SPD may hold Bremen, Berlin and Hamburg could be tight, while CDU should win all the other Lander.

    Will be looking to see whether FDP and BSW clear the 5% threshold, recent polls suggest Linke should be comfortably over. Will the 8-9 or so point polling gap between the Union and AfD hold in the exit poll or will the AfD have underpolled and the CDU/CSU overpolled?

    The more parties in the new Bundestag, the more complex coalition building becomes. Given that tonight will be the SPD's worst postwar result, Scholz should resign as leader tonight if he has any sense/dignity but will stay as caretaker Chancellor while Merz forms a new government.

    Depends on the numbers but new government should be either GroKo (Union + SPD, as per 3/4 of the Merkel govts), Kiwi (Union + Green) or quite possibly a Kenya (all three).

    However, given that what leaders say before election day and what they say once the results are in can often be different things, so if all of the above options collapse (Austria is now on its 3rd attempt to form a new government), I think there's an outside chance of a CDU/CSU government with AfD confidence and supply, would be a last resort, but if all other options have been tried and failed, I don't think it can be completely ruled out.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Not sure what Scholz is supposed to "resign as leader" of tonight?
    The SPD.
    Which he isn't leader of.

    I mean de facto as chancellor/chancellor-candidate he is sort of "leader" of the SPD, but he will remain as Chancellor until a new coalition is ready, so what is he going to resign as leader of?
    Ok fair point. But he could/should as a minimum announce that he won't be part of the new govt I would have thought? The 2005-9 gov was a GroKo but I think part of the price of that was that Schroder had to step down from frontline politics completely.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    SandyRentool said:

    A Kiwi coalition will never get off the ground.

    If CDU/CSU and SPD combined don't have a majority then there will be limited alternative options. No chance AfD is involved.
    If BSW and FDP don't make it into Parliament, that means that only about 84-85% of votes did. That means you only need 42% or so for a majority.

    What this means is that -if the CDU/CSU is on 30%- then they need a further 12% or so. It's entirely possible they could get there with any one of SPD, AfD or Greens.
    I would prefer Union-Green, over Union-SPD. Because they would have more clearcut support for Ukraine. And because I think it would be healthier for German democracy the SPD to have a chance to rebuild in opposition.

    Unfortunately it looks unlikely (even if they get a majority).

    CDU/CSU won't go into government with the AfD.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,711
    Casino_Royale said:

    Malmesbury said:



    Always better to look at the distribution maps, than raw, nationwide percentages.

    Reunification worked then.
    The cultural differences that emerged after just 40 years or so of separation under different systems are surprisingly striking and long lasting. Now imagine trying to reunify the Koreas!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,988
    It's official: British music is now shite. Lost our way in the world.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y23pe2v0vo
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Malmesbury said:



    Always better to look at the distribution maps, than raw, nationwide percentages.

    Reunification worked then.
    The cultural differences that emerged after just 40 years or so of separation under different systems are surprisingly striking and long lasting. Now imagine trying to reunify the Koreas!
    It would have to speak to their very Seouls.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    DoubleCarpet said:

    kamski said:

    DoubleCarpet said:

    kamski said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT, @DoubleCarpet posted this.

    Germany

    Polls close 5pm GMT

    https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/livestreams/livestream1

    https://www.ardmediathek.de/live

    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten-sendungen/zdfspezial/bundestagswahl-2025-zdf-wahlstudio-1-100.html

    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundeswahlleiter.html

    ZDF might be geoblocked but hopefully some of the TV links will work!

    Please post any good links especially live result maps.

    First seat results should be in within 2 hours or so of poll close, final results could be midnight or later.

    Expecting AfD to win all states in the east except Berlin, CSU obviously wins Bavaria, SPD may hold Bremen, Berlin and Hamburg could be tight, while CDU should win all the other Lander.

    Will be looking to see whether FDP and BSW clear the 5% threshold, recent polls suggest Linke should be comfortably over. Will the 8-9 or so point polling gap between the Union and AfD hold in the exit poll or will the AfD have underpolled and the CDU/CSU overpolled?

    The more parties in the new Bundestag, the more complex coalition building becomes. Given that tonight will be the SPD's worst postwar result, Scholz should resign as leader tonight if he has any sense/dignity but will stay as caretaker Chancellor while Merz forms a new government.

    Depends on the numbers but new government should be either GroKo (Union + SPD, as per 3/4 of the Merkel govts), Kiwi (Union + Green) or quite possibly a Kenya (all three).

    However, given that what leaders say before election day and what they say once the results are in can often be different things, so if all of the above options collapse (Austria is now on its 3rd attempt to form a new government), I think there's an outside chance of a CDU/CSU government with AfD confidence and supply, would be a last resort, but if all other options have been tried and failed, I don't think it can be completely ruled out.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Not sure what Scholz is supposed to "resign as leader" of tonight?
    The SPD.
    Which he isn't leader of.

    I mean de facto as chancellor/chancellor-candidate he is sort of "leader" of the SPD, but he will remain as Chancellor until a new coalition is ready, so what is he going to resign as leader of?
    Ok fair point. But he could/should as a minimum announce that he won't be part of the new govt I would have thought? The 2005-9 gov was a GroKo but I think part of the price of that was that Schroder had to step down from frontline politics completely.
    Yes I think both CDU and CSU have already said/implied Scholz won't be welcome in the next government. I'm not sure if Scholz needs to announce that before any coalition negotiations have started?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Scott_xP said:

    @PippaCrerar
    NEW: President Zelenskyy is asked if he'd “give up” being Ukrainian president in exchange for peace.

    “Yes, I am happy, if it is for the peace of Ukraine. If you need me to leave this chair, I am ready to do that, and I also can exchange it for Nato membership for Ukraine."

    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1893696629783294457

    Zelensky is a mensch; Trump is an arse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    MarqueeMark said:

    It's official: British music is now shite. Lost our way in the world.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y23pe2v0vo

    Wasn't Jemini warning enough?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    MarqueeMark said:

    It's official: British music is now shite. Lost our way in the world.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y23pe2v0vo

    It's just that nobody else can understand our strange local language known as MLE.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    edited February 23
    Has DoubleCarpet turned up with his famous election night links? I hope so.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    gettingbetter said:

    On the German election. AfD and presumably BSW if over 5% are uncoalitionable. It is impossible to form a coalition without the CDU running it if they are the largest party, or even second to AfD.
    The FDP if over 5% can't be in government with the Greens.
    So we are left with:
    CDU/CSU plus SPD. Hopefully this has a majority.
    CDU/CSU (with not much enthusiam fromthe latter) plus Greens. Not a very likely end result, but fantastic if it looks adds up to over half the MPs because it will put Merz in a better negotiating position as there is more than one option.
    Lastly the possibility if FDP or BSW or both get MPs and so CDU/CSU plus SPD can't get a majority. This would be very tricky.
    I do hope AfD will not do well, because I fear that Elon Musk will question the legitimacy of the new coalition without them, and get told to do one, undermining Europe/US relations.
    We will soon see.
    .

    Pretty much. BSW aren't technically uncoalitionable (they are in coalitions with both the CDU and SPD in state governments), but in reality it's not an option.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    Yes he has. Thanks DC for the links.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 928
    Andy_JS said:

    Has DoubleCarpet turned up with his famous election night links? I hope so.

    Yes - at the start of the thread reposted FPT, more links higher up.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    StillWaters said:

    Fpt

    Jim_Miller said:

    Kamski - Since you are here, a question that has bothered me for years: Does the CDU/CSU split reflect the old Protestant/Catholic split in Germany?

    It’s Bavaria/rest of Germany. Bavarian is Catholic but not the only Catholic part of Germany.
    True, though conservative rural Catholicism plays a part. The other more catholic parts of Germany (eg the Rhineland) are mostly less rural and less conservative.

    However, CSU leader and minister-president of Bavaria Söder is a protestant.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    Taz said:

    This is what passes for news on the BBC now. Well worth the license fee !

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgl62ppp16o

    "arrived from Syria on a dinghy"

    Typo for France in there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    MarqueeMark said:

    It's official: British music is now shite. Lost our way in the world.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y23pe2v0vo

    Quite depressing being British these days

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-bitter-cocktail-of-british-decline/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    No shit...

    @atrupar
    Hegseth says firing of top military lawyers was about making sure "they don't exist to be roadblocks to anything that happens."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1893676454673522785
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    edited February 23
    StillWaters said:

    Fpt

    Jim_Miller said:

    Kamski - Since you are here, a question that has bothered me for years: Does the CDU/CSU split reflect the old Protestant/Catholic split in Germany?

    It’s Bavaria/rest of Germany. Bavarian is Catholic but not the only Catholic part of Germany.
    Now Christians in Germany as a whole are plurality Roman Catholic too.

    On latest figures 24% of Germany are Roman Catholics and only 21.9% Lutheran Protestants with 1.9% Orthodox, 41.9% irreligious and 3.6% Muslim

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Germany#Hinduism
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PippaCrerar
    NEW: President Zelenskyy is asked if he'd “give up” being Ukrainian president in exchange for peace.

    “Yes, I am happy, if it is for the peace of Ukraine. If you need me to leave this chair, I am ready to do that, and I also can exchange it for Nato membership for Ukraine."

    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1893696629783294457

    Zelensky is a mensch; Trump is an arse.
    @AmichaiStein1

    Zelensky on Trump's mineral deal: "Ten generations of Ukrainians would have to pay. I'm not signing that"

    https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1893683465251365167
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 573
    kamski said:

    gettingbetter said:

    On the German election. AfD and presumably BSW if over 5% are uncoalitionable. It is impossible to form a coalition without the CDU running it if they are the largest party, or even second to AfD.
    The FDP if over 5% can't be in government with the Greens.
    So we are left with:
    CDU/CSU plus SPD. Hopefully this has a majority.
    CDU/CSU (with not much enthusiam fromthe latter) plus Greens. Not a very likely end result, but fantastic if it looks adds up to over half the MPs because it will put Merz in a better negotiating position as there is more than one option.
    Lastly the possibility if FDP or BSW or both get MPs and so CDU/CSU plus SPD can't get a majority. This would be very tricky.
    I do hope AfD will not do well, because I fear that Elon Musk will question the legitimacy of the new coalition without them, and get told to do one, undermining Europe/US relations.
    We will soon see.
    .

    Pretty much. BSW aren't technically uncoalitionable (they are in coalitions with both the CDU and SPD in state governments), but in reality it's not an option.
    That was pre-Trump. They are too pro-Russian so are now uncoalitionable. I did forget to mention that die Linke are uncoalitionable with the CDU so out of the mix too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    edited February 23
    .
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PippaCrerar
    NEW: President Zelenskyy is asked if he'd “give up” being Ukrainian president in exchange for peace.

    “Yes, I am happy, if it is for the peace of Ukraine. If you need me to leave this chair, I am ready to do that, and I also can exchange it for Nato membership for Ukraine."

    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1893696629783294457

    Zelensky is a mensch; Trump is an arse.
    @AmichaiStein1

    Zelensky on Trump's mineral deal: "Ten generations of Ukrainians would have to pay. I'm not signing that"

    https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1893683465251365167
    It's ironic to reflect that the end of Season 2 of Servant of the People ended with Goloborodko/Zelensky refusing to sign a deal with the IMF that had much the same terms...and he was imprisoned for it.

    I wonder if life might imitate art here given Trump's contempt for the law.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    @Mylovanov

    Zelensky: Trump is not forever, but the Russian threat is permanent

    We don’t care that Putin won’t attack while Trump is in the office. We need peace and guarantees that will outlast Trump and Putin

    (The last phrase is not verbatim)

    https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1893694026596937786
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    In Oaxaca, Mexico.

    https://x.com/StreetArtUtopia/status/1893373437692821808
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,988
    Is counting in Germany done by machines?

    Where is their Sunderland in the race for first results?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,996
    Scott_xP said:

    No shit...

    @atrupar
    Hegseth says firing of top military lawyers was about making sure "they don't exist to be roadblocks to anything that happens."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1893676454673522785

    Say what you like about the drunken fool, he says the quiet part out loud.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    MarqueeMark said:

    Is counting in Germany done by machines?

    Where is their Sunderland in the race for first results?

    Don't think they use machines but counting is extremely fast because it's done at the polling stations and there aren't many votes to count in each one.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,405
    MarqueeMark said:

    Is counting in Germany done by machines?

    Where is their Sunderland in the race for first results?

    Sudetenland North.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    MarqueeMark said:

    Is counting in Germany done by machines?

    Where is their Sunderland in the race for first results?

    There isn't really an equivalent in Germany. The dramatic moment is the "elephant round" immediately after the exit poll is announced when they have the party leaders in a live TV discussion.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    Kylo has been busy hacking the Grok code

    On Friday it said this

    https://x.com/LinusEkenstam/status/1893058388956766349

    Yesterday it was this

    https://x.com/FlyingDutchPall/status/1893452268319449435

    Now it is this

    https://x.com/Guru_Merc/status/1893570387306242138
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Malmesbury said:



    Always better to look at the distribution maps, than raw, nationwide percentages.

    Reunification worked then.
    The cultural differences that emerged after just 40 years or so of separation under different systems are surprisingly striking and long lasting. Now imagine trying to reunify the Koreas!
    Odd thing: we're now only a few years away from Germany having spent longer reunified than split in the first place.

    That Soviet occupation did a lot of damage.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    Oops a daisy

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/champions-trophy-pcb-asks-icc-for-clarification-over-india-anthem-being-played-before-australia-england-1474398
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    Fairliered said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Is counting in Germany done by machines?

    Where is their Sunderland in the race for first results?

    Sudetenland North.
    That's clearly Pfalz.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    MarqueeMark said:

    It's official: British music is now shite. Lost our way in the world.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y23pe2v0vo

    It looks like that whole list is shite.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    SandyRentool said:

    A Kiwi coalition will never get off the ground.

    If CDU/CSU and SPD combined don't have a majority then there will be limited alternative options. No chance AfD is involved.
    If BSW and FDP don't make it into Parliament, that means that only about 84-85% of votes did. That means you only need 42% or so for a majority.

    What this means is that -if the CDU/CSU is on 30%- then they need a further 12% or so. It's entirely possible they could get there with any one of SPD, AfD or Greens.
    Of those SPD is surely the most likely.
    They might decline. Junior coalition partner is rather a poisoned chalice.
    If the only other option is fresh elections they'll agree something.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835
    Andy_JS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Is counting in Germany done by machines?

    Where is their Sunderland in the race for first results?

    Don't think they use machines but counting is extremely fast because it's done at the polling stations and there aren't many votes to count in each one.
    This is one of the things Americans really don't get: "ah, but in Germany you get election results in a couple of hours, whereas it can take a day in the US."

    Well yes. But in Germany (or the UK), you are filling in a single ballot paper. In the US, you might well be voting on 50+ things.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    Leon said:

    Tight match in Rome

    France opened a can of whoopass.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835
    So where's that exit poll.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    Exit polls out
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    Links from @DoubleCarpet (see prev for sources)

    https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/livestreams/livestream1
    https://www.ardmediathek.de/live
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten-sendungen/zdfspezial/bundestagswahl-2025-zdf-wahlstudio-1-100.html
    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundeswahlleiter.html
    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse.html - official results
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8U3zJyjLG4
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoS6ifYUFeA
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    viewcode said:

    Links from @DoubleCarpet (see prev for sources)

    https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/livestreams/livestream1
    https://www.ardmediathek.de/live
    https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten-sendungen/zdfspezial/bundestagswahl-2025-zdf-wahlstudio-1-100.html
    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundeswahlleiter.html
    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse.html - official results
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8U3zJyjLG4
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoS6ifYUFeA

    Further links from me:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/feb/23/german-election-live-olaf-scholz-alice-weidel-afd-friedrich-merz-germany-latest-news
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,439
    MarqueeMark said:

    Is counting in Germany done by machines?

    Where is their Sunderland in the race for first results?

    I clearly wasn’t the only person who read that as Sudetenland. A word that’s probably been quoted in media more in the past 2 weeks than the preceding 8 decades.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    Guardian says "Exit polls: CDU/CSU projected winner of 2025 German election"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/feb/23/german-election-live-olaf-scholz-alice-weidel-afd-friedrich-merz-germany-latest-news
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835
    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    Why are the FDP so often on 4.9%? Amazing to see it happening again.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,439
    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    That’s extremely close to the 5% threshold for the bottom 2.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    Good news the AfD look like they did slightly worse than expected.

    Bad ish news the FDP are close enough they might still make it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    edited February 23
    Exit poll Germany
    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    Left Party 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    https://news.sky.com/story/german-election-latest-exit-poll-expected-soon-with-all-eyes-on-the-far-right-13313086

    So looks like Merz will be next German chancellor as expected and a clear shift to the right in Germany, though most likely will be a Union and SPD grand coalition
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835
    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    On those numbers, and assuming that FPD doesn't make the cut, then the CDU can partner with the Greens, the SPD or the AfD.

    If the FDP or BSW does make it, then a Green coalition on its own becomes impossible.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,049
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    That’s extremely close to the 5% threshold for the bottom 2.
    And if the brief bit of Peter Schnee I just caught is right, Union + SPD works as long as the tiddlers are out, but not if they make it in.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,439
    edited February 23
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    Good news the AfD look like they did slightly worse than expected.

    Bad ish news the FDP are close enough they might still make it
    So if they don’t it’s CDU/SD/Green and if they do it’s CDU/SD/FDP?

    EDIT: ignore, I forgot the denominator drops when a party drops below.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 928
    Andy_JS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Is counting in Germany done by machines?

    Where is their Sunderland in the race for first results?

    Don't think they use machines but counting is extremely fast because it's done at the polling stations and there aren't many votes to count in each one.
    Think it's hand counted, mainly in polling stations but maybe some counting centres too. First results (maybe Bavaria, Rhineland) normally slower than first UK results though.

    ZDF had both FDP and BSW bang on 5%, ARD had them at 4.9 & 4.7.

    Looks like if FDP clear 5%, 3 party coalition needed if no AfD participation.

    84% turnout!! DW reporting
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    On those numbers, and assuming that FPD doesn't make the cut, then the CDU can partner with the Greens, the SPD or the AfD.

    If the FDP or BSW does make it, then a Green coalition on its own becomes impossible.
    Green not possible and AfD not happening
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    Alice Weidel says the AfD's hand will always be open to participate in government and warns that if the CDU betray their voters by making a coalition with the left then they will overtake them in the next election.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 928
    williamglenn said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Is counting in Germany done by machines?

    Where is their Sunderland in the race for first results?

    There isn't really an equivalent in Germany. The dramatic moment is the "elephant round" immediately after the exit poll is announced when they have the party leaders in a live TV discussion.
    Elephant round will be later on eg 8.45 IIRC
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    edited February 23
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    That’s extremely close to the 5% threshold for the bottom 2.
    Isn’t this pretty much exactly as predicted by the polls?

    Germany is nicely fulfilling its orderly and predictable stereotype even in a time of disorderly and unpredictable flux. Bravo
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    Exit poll percentages

    SPD 16% (-9.7)
    CDU/CSU 29% (+4.9)
    Green 13.5% (-1.2)
    FDP 4.9% (-6.5)
    AFD 19.5% (+9.1)
    Left 8.5% (+3.6)
    BSW 4.7 (+4.7)
    Others 3.9% (-4.8)

    Source https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoS6ifYUFeA
    Manually typed, so apologies for any errors
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243
    By my calculations CDU/CSU and Greens won't be viable alone.

    Whether or not SPD and CDU/CSU are over 50% will be touch and go if FDP squeak past 5%.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    I wonder why the Left suddenly picked up support at the end of the campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    Andy_JS said:

    I wonder why the Left suddenly picked up support at the end of the campaign.

    As they squeezed the BSW
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    Why are the FDP so often on 4.9%? Amazing to see it happening again.
    German LDs nichts winning here.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    Good news the AfD look like they did slightly worse than expected.

    Bad ish news the FDP are close enough they might still make it
    So if they don’t it’s CDU/SD/Green and if they do it’s CDU/SD/FDP?

    EDIT: ignore, I forgot the denominator drops when a party drops below.
    If FDP don't make it it's Union-SPD. If they do the only options are Union-SPD-Green or Union-SPD-FDP, which are both recipes for disaster.

    What fucking morons voted FDP?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    kamski said:

    TimS said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CDU/CSU 29%
    AfD 19.5%
    SPD 16%
    Greens 13.5%
    The Left 8.5%
    FDP 4.9%
    BSW 4.7%

    Phewy

    Good news the AfD look like they did slightly worse than expected.

    Bad ish news the FDP are close enough they might still make it
    So if they don’t it’s CDU/SD/Green and if they do it’s CDU/SD/FDP?

    EDIT: ignore, I forgot the denominator drops when a party drops below.
    If FDP don't make it it's Union-SPD. If they do the only options are Union-SPD-Green or Union-SPD-FDP, which are both recipes for disaster.

    What fucking morons voted FDP?
    Union-SPD-FDP would be the best result for Germany in my view and give Merz more room to push through his agenda
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Germany in for a spell of chaotic quasi-coalition non-government? Ideal timing
This discussion has been closed.