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The German election thread – politicalbetting.com

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  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    viewcode said:

    MikeL said:

    BSW 5.03% (after 260/299)

    Source plz?
    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse/bund-99.html#stimmentabelle9

    Scroll down to precise numbers and calculate % yourself.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    biggles said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Peter is leaving at the end of next month. The card is next to the files by Andrea's office. Please send contributions to the following account.

    Is this something to do with Musk?
    No. BartholemewRoberts complained about inane emails and gave Janice's missing water bottle as an example. I picked up the hook and ran with it, giving mock examples of inane emails I get at work. I can't go into too much detail without identifying the organisation I work for, so I gave the nonspecific ones. I didn't make up the "period awareness" one.
    Mrs Biggles (along with every girlfriend I had in the past) seems perfectly aware of her period without any external help. I had thought that was the norm. Evidently not.
    Thinking about it, it may have been menopause awareness. As previously stated I have a swiss cheese memory these days. :(
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,738
    viewcode said:

    Peter is leaving at the end of next month. The card is next to the files by Andrea's office. Please send contributions to the following account.

    We have accidentally installed some highly vulnerable software to everyone's laptops. Please don't use it. If you have already, and your item number is less than 2400, please submerge it in the nearest bath for at least 30 seconds.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    MikeL said:

    viewcode said:

    MikeL said:

    BSW 5.03% (after 260/299)

    Source plz?
    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse/bund-99.html#stimmentabelle9

    Scroll down to precise numbers and calculate % yourself.
    5.0144% now. That's very tight but dropping
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    kamski said:

    nico67 said:

    kamski said:

    MikeL said:

    BSW 5.03% (after 260/299)

    That's after 4 of the last 7 eastern constituencies dropped. I don't think it's enough for them.
    Would they expect to do well in Cologne because that hasn’t reported yet ?
    Not especially. Would expect them to do worse here than nationally.
    Having said that they seem to be on exactly 5.0% and have 2 Meck-Pomm and 1 Sachsen Anhalt still to come, so it will be extremely close.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234

    The results by age paint quite a stark picture for the future of Germany. Both the CDU/CSU and SPD are aided by the votes of 70+ pensioners.

    https://x.com/simongerman600/status/1893787066938380708

    Though the CDU/CSU won all age categories over 45 and it is they who decide elections
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    viewcode said:

    biggles said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Peter is leaving at the end of next month. The card is next to the files by Andrea's office. Please send contributions to the following account.

    Is this something to do with Musk?
    No. BartholemewRoberts complained about inane emails and gave Janice's missing water bottle as an example. I picked up the hook and ran with it, giving mock examples of inane emails I get at work. I can't go into too much detail without identifying the organisation I work for, so I gave the nonspecific ones. I didn't make up the "period awareness" one.
    Mrs Biggles (along with every girlfriend I had in the past) seems perfectly aware of her period without any external help. I had thought that was the norm. Evidently not.
    Thinking about it, it may have been menopause awareness. As previously stated I have a swiss cheese memory these days. :(
    We had a menopause awareness session with my team of 30 (90% female and mostly of a certain age). I learned a lot
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    edited February 23
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Peter is leaving at the end of next month. The card is next to the files by Andrea's office. Please send contributions to the following account.

    Is this something to do with Musk?
    No. BartholemewRoberts complained about inane emails and gave Janice's missing water bottle as an example. I picked up the hook and ran with it, giving mock examples of inane emails I get at work. I can't go into too much detail without identifying the organisation I work for, so I gave the nonspecific ones. I didn't make up the "period awareness" one.
    The internet would still be a (mostly) wonderful place today if every time someone sent a message or email they had to put a small amount of money, say 20 pence. Because it would stop them posting unnecessary messages without preventing them from posting important ones because almost everyone can afford that much. Dial-up internet fees used to do the same thing for the first 10 years or so of the internet.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    nico67 said:

    kamski said:

    MikeL said:

    BSW 5.03% (after 260/299)

    That's after 4 of the last 7 eastern constituencies dropped. I don't think it's enough for them.
    Would they expect to do well in Cologne because that hasn’t reported yet ?
    Not especially. Would expect them to do worse here than nationally.
    Having said that they seem to be on exactly 5.0% and have 2 Meck-Pomm and 1 Sachsen Anhalt still to come, so it will be extremely close.
    Could Baden W and Westfalia save Mertz from a nightmare scenario ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234


    Matthew Yglesias
    @mattyglesias
    ·
    1h
    Replying to @mattyglesias

    Trump is now pretending that his administration was backing CDU all along when both the VP and Shadow President Musk very explicitly tried to get center-right Germans to vote AfD instead.

    Trump likes winners and those who back winners, which is good for Merz but not so good for Elon and Vance (even if he might secretly have backed the AfD he was sensible enough not to back them publicly so he can now praise the 'conservative' CDU win)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    That was supposed to say "pay" not "put" as you can probably guess.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    Andy_JS said:

    That was supposed to say "pay" not "put" as you can probably guess.

    It works with 'put' if you imagine an old-fashioned electricity meter that you need to feed before posting.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    so 5.03% with 1 Meck-Pomm and 24 west german constituencies to come. Err, still to close to call I think
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    BSW 5.033% (after 274/299)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    Halle has gone to the AfD. I thought this was a big university town? Maybe that's a different Halle.

    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse/bund-99/land-15/wahlkreis-71.html
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited February 24
    BSW 5.0068% (after 284/299)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    MikeL said:

    BSW 5.0068% (after 284/299)

    Omg it’s going to be so close . 1 former East Germany constituency and 14 from the west to come .
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,632
    Only just catching up with this - what are the implications for a government of whether or not BSW exceeds 5%?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    Andy_JS said:
    Critically one of the last ones is in Meck-Pomm, which should be good for them. Which means.... still too close to call by my calculations
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    Andy_JS said:
    Is it possible to order a national recount if they're within a few votes of the 5% total?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    Cookie said:

    Only just catching up with this - what are the implications for a government of whether or not BSW exceeds 5%?

    Huge . If BSW get the 5.0% that means Mertz would need the Greens.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,632
    nico67 said:

    Cookie said:

    Only just catching up with this - what are the implications for a government of whether or not BSW exceeds 5%?

    Huge . If BSW get the 5.0% that means Mertz would need the Greens.
    And if not, presumably a Union/SPD coalition?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902

    Andy_JS said:
    Is it possible to order a national recount if they're within a few votes of the 5% total?
    I asked someone this at a previous election and they said recounts don't exist in Germany, unless there is a court order due to alleged foul play or something like that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    BSW drop below 5% with 290/299
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    kamski said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Critically one of the last ones is in Meck-Pomm, which should be good for them. Which means.... still too close to call by my calculations
    Do you know what the other 14 constituencies still to come are? I've just tried to find out myself but wasn't able to.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    BSW 4.988% (after 290/299)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    So now 1 former East German constituency left and 8 from the west .
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited February 24
    The East German seat left is right at the west side - ie bordering West Germany - don't know if that may impact.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    BSW currently 6,000 votes below 5%.

    How many do they get in a typical East German seat?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    MikeL said:

    BSW currently 6,000 votes below 5%.

    How many do they get in a typical East German seat?

    They'll probably get 10% ish in that seat.

    So still too close to call
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    296 of 299. 4.985%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited February 24
    BSW 4.985% (after 296/299)

    East German seat in I THINK.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    viewcode said:

    296 of 299. 4.985%

    They think it's all over.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,996
    kle4 said:

    Wow.

    "House democrats know what they are doing"

    "The collapse is coming"


    Mike Sington
    @MikeSington
    ·
    2h
    “It’s over!” James Carville predicts the Trump administration is going to completely collapse in “less than 30 days”. He advises Dems to sit back and let it happen. (Video: SiriusXM/Mediaite)

    https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1893755499851485248

    Yeah, I don't buy it.

    Trump and Musk are chaotic, but everyone fought too hard and bitter to 'completely collapse', even something has to give from this frenetic beginning.
    The thing about America - a blessing that is also a curse - is that owing to its advantages you can monumentally screw up with dreadful policies and its economy is resiliant enough to wear it before you are called on it.

    It's virtually impossible to do a Truss even if you're promising tariffs and massive unfunded tax cuts for the richest. The benefits of being the world's reserve currency and largest economy.

    That may change over time, but is liable to be a slow motion decline as advantages are eroded, corruption and scandals pile up and when a crash is magnified by guard rails being removed. That's not happening immediately even if you think Trump and Musk's moves are disastrous.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    edited February 24
    The 3 seats to come are reportedly Mannheim, Viersen & Flensburg-Schleswig.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769

    viewcode said:

    296 of 299. 4.985%

    They think it's all over.
    I am literally*1 on tenterhooks over a party I have little knowledge or interest in. Should I be scared? Pleased? Slightly miffed? What?

    *1 not literally
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited February 24
    3 seats to go - all West Germany:

    Flensburg-Schleswig
    Viersen
    Mannheim
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    Andy_JS said:

    The 3 seats to come are reportedly Mannheim, Viersen & Flensburg-Schleswig.

    Then they won't make it I think. Unlikely to do well in Flensburg, and the other 2 I don't see why they wouldn't be close to the West German average (ie under 5%)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited February 24
    They need 6.4% in the remaining 3 seats (assuming remaining seats are average size and average turnout).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited February 24
    BSW 4.981 (after 297/299).

    Viersen in.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    MikeL said:

    They need 6.4% in the remaining 3 seats (assuming remaining seats are average size and average turnout).

    Won't make it. Average west german seat is around 4 or 4.1% I think. Schleswig Holstein 3.5%.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    One of the two seats to declare is I think the one with a lot of Danish speakers. BSW unlikely to do well there.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited February 24
    They need 7.8% in final two seats.

    Flensburg very near Danish border.

    EDIT: It borders Denmark I THINK (unless it's on coast - there is no Germany to the north of it).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    It’s down to Mannheim which has a decent size population .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    nico67 said:

    It’s down to Mannheim which has a decent size population .

    Very industrial town.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    MikeL said:

    They need 7.8% in final two seats.

    Flensburg very near Danish border.

    EDIT: It borders Denmark I THINK (unless it's on coast - there is no Germany to the north of it).

    Lots of Danish speakers and I think the Danish party has a guaranteed seat in the German parliament.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    edited February 24

    viewcode said:

    296 of 299. 4.985%

    They think it's all over.
    297 of 2.99. 4.980%
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    I've got to crash. BSW fall a few votes short. I'm glad of that at least.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited February 24
    BSW 4.973 (after 298/299)

    Danish seat in.

    Mannheim still to come.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    edited February 24
    Vice chancellor of Germany, Robert Habeck, just lost his constituency seat in Flensburg-Schleswig. BSW got 3.2%.

    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse/bund-99/land-1/wahlkreis-1.html
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited February 24
    BSW would need 13% in Mannheim if average vote size.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    MikeL said:

    BSW 4.973 (after 298/299)

    Danish seat in.

    Mannheim still to come.

    What drama !
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    edited February 24
    MikeL said:

    BSW would need 13% in Mannheim if average vote size.

    The result last time (list vote) was:

    SPD 25.3%
    Greens 21.1%
    CDU 18.2%
    FDP 13.1%
    AfD 9.1%
    Left 5.0%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mannheim_(electoral_district)#2021_election
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    All seats in. Final result:

    BSW 4.973%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited February 24
    CDU/CSU 28.6%
    AFD 20.8%
    SPD 16.4%
    Green 11.6%
    Linke 8.8%

    Total of above = 86.2%

    CDU/CSU + SPD has 45% - well over half of the 86.2%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    MikeL said:

    CDU/CSU 28.6%
    AFD 20.8%
    SPD 16.4%
    Green 11.6%
    Linke 8.8%

    CDU's turn in the hotseat to quickly become very unpopular lol
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    Wow what drama at the end . I’m not sure how many thousands of votes made the difference but this is a huge result for Mertz because having to rely on the Greens would have made a massive difference and made it almost impossible to get a coalition together .
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    5% was 2,482,104 votes.

    BSW got 2,468,670 votes.

    Short by 13,434 votes.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    296 of 299. 4.985%

    They think it's all over.
    297 of 2.99. 4.980%
    299 of 299. 4.972%
  • Shame FDP failed but great news that BSW did and that Sholz is out.

    Hopefully AfD have peaked and fall back from here not continue to rise due to the inevitable grand coalition.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    edited February 24
    Final result (provisional)

    Union 28.52%
    AfD 20.80%
    SPD 16.41%
    Grn 11.61%
    Linke 8.77%
    BSW 4.97%
    FDP 4.33%
    FW 1.55%
    Animals 0.97%
    Others 2.06%

    https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

    The previous coalition parties received 32.35%.

    Union + SPD = 44.94%.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    MikeL said:

    5% was 2,482,104 votes.

    BSW got 2,468,670 votes.

    Short by 13,434 votes.

    Thanks for doing the maths . Mertz trying to hobble a coalition together with the SPD and Greens would have been close to impossible .

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    MikeL said:

    5% was 2,482,104 votes.

    BSW got 2,468,670 votes.

    Short by 13,434 votes.

    45 votes per constituency.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    The next German government is probably going to be one that 55.06% of German voters didn't vote for, despite their PR system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    edited February 24
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    CDU/CSU 28.6%
    AFD 20.8%
    SPD 16.4%
    Green 11.6%
    Linke 8.8%

    CDU's turn in the hotseat to quickly become very unpopular lol
    I think Merz will be a good chancellor, he will cut spending and tax, control the borders and reduce immigration to Germany and increase German aid to Ukraine.

    The SPD as his likely coalition partners (the Greens won't accept his expansion of nuclear energy) can share any unpopularity and the AfD as largest party of opposition will keep their share but remain too extreme for most Germans
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    13.88% of votes excluded from contributing to seats. About 6.9 million votes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    CDU/CSU 28.6%
    AFD 20.8%
    SPD 16.4%
    Green 11.6%
    Linke 8.8%

    CDU's turn in the hotseat to quickly become very unpopular lol
    I think Merz will be a good chancellor, he will cut spending and tax, control the borders and reduce immigration to Germany and increase German aid to Ukraine.

    The SPD as his coalition partners can share any unpopularity and the AfD in opposition will keep their share but remain too extreme for most Germans
    Merz campaigned on immigration even in the early 2000s when he was a rival to Merkel, so there's a chance he will quitely steal the AfD's clothes and try to render them irrelevant.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    Andy_JS said:

    The next German government is probably going to be one that 55.06% of German voters didn't vote for, despite their PR system.

    Yes but it’s still a lot more representative than our system. I don’t know much about Mertz but he’s got off to a good start by slating Musk !
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    edited February 24
    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The next German government is probably going to be one that 55.06% of German voters didn't vote for, despite their PR system.

    Yes but it’s still a lot more representative than our system. I don’t know much about Mertz but he’s got off to a good start by slating Musk !
    Usually. In 2010 the Tory + LibDem government collectively polled 59.1%.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    It’s pretty clear now that European leaders have to act on immigration and that’s a whole lot easier for Mertz without needing the Greens . Whatever side of the debate you’re on it’s evident that people are worried about that . For the EU countries it’s not really about FOM but immigration from outside of there.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    Seats are 329 to the Union/SDP and 301 to everyone else, majority 28.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    "Berlin-based journalist Thomas Vorreyer points out that had the vote been based only on those aged between 35 and 44 the AfD would have come out top. 26% of people in that age category voted for the far right party, with the CDU/CSU in second place on 24%."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/feb/23/german-election-live-olaf-scholz-alice-weidel-afd-friedrich-merz-germany-latest-news
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,822
    Andy_JS said:

    Seats are 329 to the Union/SDP and 301 to everyone else, majority 28.

    You’ve been a star this evening . Thanks so much for these updates and I never thought I’d be biting my nails over whether BSW got to 5.0% .

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    A wooden spoon to whoever wrote this. I know it's late, but this is your job.

    "Final results

    The results are in, confirming the CDU/CSU on 28.5%, the AfD in second place on 20.8% – its best result ever – the SPD slumping by 10 percentage points to 16.4% and the Greens to 11.6%.

    The Left has surged to 8.8% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has just snuck in with exactly 5%."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/feb/23/german-election-live-olaf-scholz-alice-weidel-afd-friedrich-merz-germany-latest-news
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    The Economist's forecast was pretty good.

    They predicted Union 213, AfD 146, SPD 109, Greens 94, Left 67, Others 1.

    The result was Union 208, AfD 151, SPD 121, Greens 85, Left 64, Others 1.

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/2025-german-election-polls-prediction-forecast/forecast
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    Opinium holds out as the only recent pollster giving Labour a lead.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2025
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    Without permission from Wellington, apparently!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    There'll be many words and maps about how badly Germany has done at integrating its East since reunification. Here's the other side of it --- how well East Germany has done since reunification and how much better off it is than North England today.
    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/1893732737682399343
  • I presume it didn't cost them £18bn....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    Nigelb said:

    There'll be many words and maps about how badly Germany has done at integrating its East since reunification. Here's the other side of it --- how well East Germany has done since reunification and how much better off it is than North England today.
    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/1893732737682399343

    I don't entirely believe statistics showing the North of England to be in a terrible state.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    There'll be many words and maps about how badly Germany has done at integrating its East since reunification. Here's the other side of it --- how well East Germany has done since reunification and how much better off it is than North England today.
    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/1893732737682399343

    I don't entirely believe statistics showing the North of England to be in a terrible state.
    I take you haven't been to places like Stoke....
  • US President Donald Trump has appointed right-wing commentator Dan Bongino as deputy director of the FBI.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835
    ohnotnow said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, but I'm a mod so I can get away with it:

    Groq (not Grok) is absolutely amazing. It's a platform for running opensource LLMs (like LLaMa or DeepSeek), and it runs at 5x the speed of ChatGPT or Grok or Claude. It is absolutely staggering what a difference it makes when replies appear instantly.

    If you combine it with Open WebUI, you can hook these models up to the Internet, and have your own personal ChatGPT that is simply better than ChatGPT.

    Have you tried Cerebras? Leaves groq in the dust in my tests.
    I'm on the waitlist.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like AfD may get slightly above 20%.

    WUNDERBAR!!*

    *that one is for @kinabalu who gets a tiny secret thrill in hoping I’m actually a Nazi
    Your excitement made me think of this scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NmYUUv8DUE

    Be careful what you get yourself into.
    What did I just watch????
    From the movie Euro Trip.

    Cooper goes to a sex club full of beautiful women and signs up, being told they won't stop until he says the safe word which he laughs at as why would he want them to stop? Then as soon as he agrees the girls leave, the club gets transformed into BDSM, the girls are replaced with men, and the safe word is an unintelligible word he can't say so matters get worse.
    Yvette Cooper???
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,835
    I see someone has managed to get Grok to spill its system prompt:



  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    This was a good result for Germany.

    Mertz ought to have been the Union leader 20 years ago, not the hapless Merkel.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,328

    Didn't the FDP trigger this election?

    Seems like somewhat of an own goal.

    The SDP
    I thought the FDP pulled out of the coalition with the SDP and Greens which is what triggered the election?
    That’s what the SDP claimed. But if you looked at the first 48 hours the SDP had a grid and control of the narrative while the FDP was all over the place - they were caught completely by surprise
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 908

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    There'll be many words and maps about how badly Germany has done at integrating its East since reunification. Here's the other side of it --- how well East Germany has done since reunification and how much better off it is than North England today.
    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/1893732737682399343

    I don't entirely believe statistics showing the North of England to be in a terrible state.
    I take you haven't been to places like Stoke....
    Stoke is, of course, in the Midlands
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    Andy_JS said:

    "Berlin-based journalist Thomas Vorreyer points out that had the vote been based only on those aged between 35 and 44 the AfD would have come out top. 26% of people in that age category voted for the far right party, with the CDU/CSU in second place on 24%."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/feb/23/german-election-live-olaf-scholz-alice-weidel-afd-friedrich-merz-germany-latest-news

    But even in that narrow band it's barely a quarter of the vote. Indeed only 6 % better than the national vote share overall. The vote is not even geographically, but must be fairly even by age, compared with UK political parties. The pro-immigration parties (Greens and Linke) did well with the young.

    Merz looks to be able to form a stable government strong on Defence and Ukraine, though we shall see how well it works on Germanys economic malaise. I would expect a fairly robust response to Trump's tarrifs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,988
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Berlin-based journalist Thomas Vorreyer points out that had the vote been based only on those aged between 35 and 44 the AfD would have come out top. 26% of people in that age category voted for the far right party, with the CDU/CSU in second place on 24%."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/feb/23/german-election-live-olaf-scholz-alice-weidel-afd-friedrich-merz-germany-latest-news

    But even in that narrow band it's barely a quarter of the vote. Indeed only 6 % better than the national vote share overall. The vote is not even geographically, but must be fairly even by age, compared with UK political parties. The pro-immigration parties (Greens and Linke) did well with the young.

    Merz looks to be able to form a stable government strong on Defence and Ukraine, though we shall see how well it works on Germanys economic malaise. I would expect a fairly robust response to Trump's tarrifs.
    Be interesting to see whether that response includes a number of Taurus cruise missiles slamming into Russian hydrocarbons infrastructure. Or into the Kerch Bridge.

    Or whether the US Ambassador - probably now somebody called Billy-Bub - has a quiet word in his ear.

  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    Sean_F said:

    This was a good result for Germany.

    Mertz ought to have been the Union leader 20 years ago, not the hapless Merkel.

    Merz is an idiot. Maybe he'll surprise on the upside.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,961
    Nick Robinson in Berlin, words to strike fear in enemies of political cliché everywhere.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,406
    edited February 24
    kamski said:

    Sean_F said:

    This was a good result for Germany.

    Mertz ought to have been the Union leader 20 years ago, not the hapless Merkel.

    Merz is an idiot. Maybe he'll surprise on the upside.
    Not my cup of tea either. Thanks for your contributions yesterday, it has significantly improved my understanding of German politics.

    There's a striking gender divide in young people between males and females over politics developing with 34% of 18-24 year old women supporting Linke.

    https://bsky.app/profile/foxinsoxuk.bsky.social/post/3livppjqecs2b

    This is increasingly an international phenomenon.


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,141
    Foxy said:

    kamski said:

    Sean_F said:

    This was a good result for Germany.

    Mertz ought to have been the Union leader 20 years ago, not the hapless Merkel.

    Merz is an idiot. Maybe he'll surprise on the upside.
    Not my cup of tea either. Thanks for your contributions yesterday, it has significantly improved my understanding of German politics.

    There's a striking gender divide in young people between males and females over politics developing with 34% of 18-24 year old women supporting Linke.

    https://bsky.app/profile/foxinsoxuk.bsky.social/post/3livppjqecs2b
    Your comment on Bluesky is a bit more opinionated:

    There's a massive divide in many countries between empathetic young women and incel men radicalised in the online manosphere and through violent gaming.
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