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How long can Trump last? – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    Awks
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798

    The left will be having a collective breakdown, all because they didn't take Biden out of the running years ago

    I expected a change but this is far more than anything anyone could have imagined and as I said earlier, the world order has changed on today, 20th January 2025
    The left have collective breakdowns, while the right have moral vacuums I suppose. Neither gets us very far.
  • Thoughtful right wingers really ought to be having a collective breakdown as well. This guy is your global standard bearer- are these really your standards?

    As the line in the movie goes,
    Do you still think you can control them?
    I think it all depends on just how this plays out

    It may just be rhetoric but certainly it is a huge move to the right and how it impacts politics across the globe remains to be seen
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,024

    The idea that the consumer foots the whole bill for them is far too simplistic though.
    Who pays the tax on petrol? Saudi Aramco or British drivers?

    Now, will there be multiple impacts? Sure.

    In particular, assuming no one else retaliates, then the impact will be mostly to cause the US dollar to appreciate slightly, and for product to spend slightly longer going around the world. (Buy Norwegian shipping companies.)

    See my video on bilateral trade balances: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kDJDOLkQAs
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,825
    viewcode said:

    Um, everything he has said has been pretty widely trailed over the last few days or weeks, and Project 2025/Agenda47/whatever were wide-ranging and specific. There's nothing here that's surprising.

    The only surprise is that previously a lot of the stupid shit Trump said he would do was quite different to the stupid shit he actually did.

    This time around he seems to be doing the stupid shit he said he would do.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,770
    So is America going to invade Mexico and Panama?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,388

    Clear and Present Danger by Tom Clancy.

    Probably his most best book - the film rewrote the story stupidly.

    In the book, the President declares the Colombian drug cartel (supposed to be Medellin, give the time, but not named) as a threat to the US. The use of the military goes slowly wrong. It’s not (largely) due to overt evil - people do X, which seems reasonable to them. Which causes Y. Then someone does Z.
    Saw the film on TV last week :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,388
    LET FREEDOM REIGN!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,858
    In other news, Lewis Hamilton seems to have gained some fashion sense.
    https://x.com/LewisHamilton/status/1881300328592949476
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,122
    "Starmer: State failed in ‘ultimate duty’ to protect Southport victims"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/20/southport-murder-trial/
  • They're overdoing it a bit, here.

    I propose some reforms - how about a transfer of power that involves getting punted in a municipal leisure centre in the wee small hours?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,969
    re the Panama Canal, he'll try to buy it back with an offer they can't refuse
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    The left will be having a collective breakdown, all because they didn't take Biden out of the running years ago

    I expected a change but this is far more than anything anyone could have imagined and as I said earlier, the world order has changed on today, 20th January 2025

    Well, Trump's your man Mr G. The UK right - Tory and Reform - has thrown its hat in with him. And you'll be spending the next four years blaming everyone but them for doing it.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286

    I think it all depends on just how this plays out

    It may just be rhetoric but certainly it is a huge move to the right and how it impacts politics across the globe remains to be seen
    It’s amazing how we don’t talk about this more. The entire western world is moving very sharply to the right - even hard right

    But when did we last see such a vibe shift? The 1960s? The end of WW2?

    This is epochal stuff but we act like it’s normal. Starmer’s Britain under Labour is looking like a massive outlier - deeply exposed - and doomed
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    This nerd has drawn the short straw having to follow the last guy...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,825

    Musk just shat himself!
    The speculation is that without EV subsidies, most of the non-Tesla EV manufacturers in the US will be in the shit. Tesla would be the clear winner for US made EVs….
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,879
    ...

    I think it all depends on just how this plays out

    It may just be rhetoric but certainly it is a huge move to the right and how it impacts politics across the globe remains to be seen
    But Big G. the move isn't towards a One Nation Conservatism it's towards the Tommy Robinson's right. I am surprised you are so sanguine.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,122
    Fishing said:

    Might want to change its name to something like Church of Old, Habit-Driven, Traditionalist England With Nothing Better To Do On A Sunday.
    Mocking the CoE is a silly thing to do because any replacement will be more extreme because the CoE is such a liberal church.
  • Driver said:

    ooh, we have a new one! What's the over/under on this one?

    I don't think it will last long !
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer: State failed in ‘ultimate duty’ to protect Southport victims"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/20/southport-murder-trial/

    L'etat, c'est vous.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,265
    rcs1000 said:

    Who pays the tax on petrol? Saudi Aramco or British drivers?

    Now, will there be multiple impacts? Sure.

    In particular, assuming no one else retaliates, then the impact will be mostly to cause the US dollar to appreciate slightly, and for product to spend slightly longer going around the world. (Buy Norwegian shipping companies.)

    See my video on bilateral trade balances: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kDJDOLkQAs
    Do MFN rules restrict what Trump can do in singling out countries for tariffs?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,879
    ...
    GIN1138 said:

    So is America going to invade Mexico and Panama?

    It would appear so. A bit like Iraq, the victory will be swift but the aftermath might be messy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,388
    Enrico Pallazzo!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,980
    kamski said:

    Do MFN rules restrict what Trump can do in singling out countries for tariffs?
    Again, do you think Trump cares? He can just do whatever he wants due to American economic and military might.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,825
    Andy_JS said:

    Mocking the CoE is a silly thing to do because any replacement will be more extreme because the CoE is such a liberal church.
    The chief purpose of the CoE is avoiding religion in the nation conversation. Replacing it with a liking for steam trains, weak tea and vague niceness.

    Get rid of the CoE and you’ll get people banging on about Sky Faries, more.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,969
    well now ... what news has been buried today?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,692

    Well, Trump's your man Mr G. The UK right - Tory and Reform - has thrown its hat in with him. And you'll be spending the next four years blaming everyone but them for doing it.

    Well I'm if the right but at no point ha e I thrown my hat in with Trump.
    Even if I agreed with his stance (and there are small subsets of it that I do among the large amounts that I don't) I can't see how his presidency brings about a UK which is any less left wing.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,491
    Driver said:

    I should've taken the under...
    Got to say I never thought he would have gone so quickly.

    I think we need to factor in whether rcs1000 or TSE are around....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,879
    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer: State failed in ‘ultimate duty’ to protect Southport victims"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/20/southport-murder-trial/

    Now Musk has just lost his automotive business to Executive Order it would be interesting for his take on Starmer's admission.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,858
    geoffw said:

    re the Panama Canal, he'll try to buy it back with an offer they can't refuse

    Take the memecoins, or we invade ?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,879
    Leon said:

    That black pastor is brilliant

    I don't believe I have ever had black pasta. Squid ink?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,265
    Andy_JS said:

    Mocking the CoE is a silly thing to do because any replacement will be more extreme because the CoE is such a liberal church.
    It's hardly liberal compared to mainstream European protestant churches
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144

    Again, do you think Trump cares? He can just do whatever he wants due to American economic and military might.
    He can try to do it because he's Trump. It might work because the US is big. but while it's big, it's not overbearingly hegemonic. It's the largest economic and military power on earth but it still can't take everyone else on at once and expect to win.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    I wonder if Trump is religious
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    The chief purpose of the CoE is avoiding religion in the nation conversation. Replacing it with a liking for steam trains, weak tea and vague niceness.

    Get rid of the CoE and you’ll get people banging on about Sky Faries, more.
    You missed out real ale and Test Match Cricket, which the Arch Bishop takes an oath to defend, I think.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,858
    Quite the feud.

    My new column: The Bidens can’t get over Pelosi’s (crucial and needed) intervention last summer

    And 1 Pelosi has had enough

    “If I was Lady McBiden, I’d put on my big girl pants, play the long game and think about my husband’s legacy. There aren’t that many people left in America who have something nice to say about Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi is one of them.”


    https://politico.com/news/magazine/2025/01/19/lady-mcbiden-alexandra-pelosi-first-lady-00199164
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,123

    I understand it is the bible given to him by his Mother in 1955
    Not opened in 70 years obviously.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,444

    Well, Trump's your man Mr G. The UK right - Tory and Reform - has thrown its hat in with him. And you'll be spending the next four years blaming everyone but them for doing it.
    It sounds like that you really want is for us to be part of America so that you can join with your Democratic brethren in fighting the good fight against him. You don't see him as the leader of a foreign country but as a political opponent.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    He can try to do it because he's Trump. It might work because the US is big. but while it's big, it's not overbearingly hegemonic. It's the largest economic and military power on earth but it still can't take everyone else on at once and expect to win.
    In a purely economic, rather than military, contest without the West at its back, it might find it gets humbled quicker than it thinks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,510
    kamski said:

    It's hardly liberal compared to mainstream European protestant churches
    Most of Europe is Roman Catholic or Orthodox which are certainly more conservative than the C of E, even if Lutherans and Methodists and Church of Scotland (but not Free Church of Scotland) are more liberal even than C of E.

    Fastest growing Protestant churches globally though are Pentecostal, Independent Evangelical and to a lesser extent Baptist all of which are more conservative than the C of E too
  • ...

    But Big G. the move isn't towards a One Nation Conservatism it's towards the Tommy Robinson's right. I am surprised you are so sanguine.
    Frankly, nobody knows how this will pan out for better or worse so let's see
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    It sounds like that you really want is for us to be part of America so that you can join with your Democratic brethren in fighting the good fight against him. You don't see him as the leader of a foreign country but as a political opponent.

    No, I see him as a US President with whom the UK right is utterly besotted. And that will have significant implications for UK politics.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,393
    biggles said:

    You missed out real ale and Test Match Cricket, which the Arch Bishop takes an oath to defend, I think.
    Not given the way Kent are playing lately.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,940
    He may - I emphasise may - have slipped in a Martin Luther King reference. When Trump said "From this day on, the United States of America will be a free, sovereign and independent nation" he may have summarized the words of King's speech, either from King's speech in Ghana ("We are a free and sovereign people") or from his sermon in St Paul's ("We are now a free and independent nation", based on the Declaration of Independence?). Given it's MLK day, it would be a nice - if unconscious - reference.

    https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/publications/autobiography-martin-luther-king-jr/chapter-11-birth-new-nation
    https://www.chr.org.uk/anddidthosefeet/martin-luther-king-visits-st-pauls-cathedral-december-6th-1984/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,940
    viewcode said:

    He may - I emphasise may - have slipped in a Martin Luther King reference. When Trump said "From this day on, the United States of America will be a free, sovereign and independent nation" he may have summarized the words of King's speech, either from King's speech in Ghana ("We are a free and sovereign people") or from his sermon in St Paul's ("We are now a free and independent nation", based on the Declaration of Independence?). Given it's MLK day, it would be a nice - if unconscious - reference.

    https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/publications/autobiography-martin-luther-king-jr/chapter-11-birth-new-nation
    https://www.chr.org.uk/anddidthosefeet/martin-luther-king-visits-st-pauls-cathedral-december-6th-1984/

    "We will dream boldly" is deffo a Star Trek ripoff, though... :)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    Leon said:

    I wonder if Trump is religious

    He sees himself as the Messiah, as do many others.

  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    No, I see him as a US President with whom the UK right is utterly besotted. And that will have significant implications for UK politics.

    You really don't understand the UK right, do you? "Besotted"???
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    viewcode said:

    He may - I emphasise may - have slipped in a Martin Luther King reference. When Trump said "From this day on, the United States of America will be a free, sovereign and independent nation" he may have summarized the words of King's speech, either from King's speech in Ghana ("We are a free and sovereign people") or from his sermon in St Paul's ("We are now a free and independent nation", based on the Declaration of Independence?). Given it's MLK day, it would be a nice - if unconscious - reference.

    https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/publications/autobiography-martin-luther-king-jr/chapter-11-birth-new-nation
    https://www.chr.org.uk/anddidthosefeet/martin-luther-king-visits-st-pauls-cathedral-december-6th-1984/

    He mentioned MLK and his Dream explicitly as well.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    Driver said:

    You really don't understand the UK right, do you? "Besotted"???

    Absolutely. They think he is fantastic.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,510
    edited January 20
    Leon said:

    It’s amazing how we don’t talk about this more. The entire western world is moving very sharply to the right - even hard right

    But when did we last see such a vibe shift? The 1960s? The end of WW2?

    This is epochal stuff but we act like it’s normal. Starmer’s Britain under Labour is looking like a massive outlier - deeply exposed - and doomed
    The 1980s with Thatcher, Reagan, Kohl, Mulroney etc (the 1960s and 1990s were more a shift to the centre left and liberals in the western world) though now the shift is more to the cultural right with Trump, Farage, Poilievre, Le Pen, Meloni, Dutton etc than the economic right.

    By the end of this year Starmer may be the only centre left leader left in a G7 nation assuming Scholz loses in Germany and Trudeau's Liberal successor loses in Canada. Albanese is only a 50% chance to be re elected for Labor in Australia too and Spain's Socialist PM likely loses in 2027.

    Macron will still be there but he is more economically centre right than centre left even if socially relatively liberal
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,879
    ...

    Frankly, nobody knows how this will pan out for better or worse so let's see
    It already looks pretty alarming to me, and we haven't seen his tariff narrative yet.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,123
    Driver said:

    You really don't understand the UK right, do you? "Besotted"???
    Nigel, Suella and Liz been expelled from the UK right have they?
  • Well, Trump's your man Mr G. The UK right - Tory and Reform - has thrown its hat in with him. And you'll be spending the next four years blaming everyone but them for doing it.

    I will be spending the next four years, God willing, enjoying time with my dear wife and family and politics comes a long way behind
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    Absolutely. They think he is fantastic.

    Oh dear. Sun Tzu would be disappointed.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    Nigel, Suella and Liz been expelled from the UK right have they?
    Three people are the whole of the UK right, are they?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,879

    Not opened in 70 years obviously.
    A family heirloom used to furtively secrete a handy sidearm during times of prohibition?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,435
    Jonathan said:

    RIP British Foreign Policy 1940-2024. You had a good run.

    It did?
  • Not opened in 70 years obviously.
    Well I can't become President, not just not being a native born American but our Family Bible, a Brownian Edition of the early 19th C is 2 ft x 18 ins x 6 ins and certainly too heavy for anyone to hold even with two hands for more than a few seconds. But it is a nice book. Yes, I know there are a lot of Family Bibles around, but they are good things to have even from the Areligious like all of my family.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,123
    Driver said:

    Three people are the whole of the UK right, are they?
    They have their followers. I believe a couple of them even managed to get elected.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,858
    viewcode said:

    He may - I emphasise may - have slipped in a Martin Luther King reference. When Trump said "From this day on, the United States of America will be a free, sovereign and independent nation" he may have summarized the words of King's speech, either from King's speech in Ghana ("We are a free and sovereign people") or from his sermon in St Paul's ("We are now a free and independent nation", based on the Declaration of Independence?). Given it's MLK day, it would be a nice - if unconscious - reference.

    https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/publications/autobiography-martin-luther-king-jr/chapter-11-birth-new-nation
    https://www.chr.org.uk/anddidthosefeet/martin-luther-king-visits-st-pauls-cathedral-december-6th-1984/

    Alabama, Mississippi also honoring Robert E. Lee on Martin Luther King Day
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/alabama-mississippi-robert-e-lee-martin-luther-king-day/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,435

    Clear and Present Danger by Tom Clancy.

    Probably his most best book - the film rewrote the story stupidly.

    In the book, the President declares the Colombian drug cartel (supposed to be Medellin, give the time, but not named) as a threat to the US. The use of the military goes slowly wrong. It’s not (largely) due to overt evil - people do X, which seems reasonable to them. Which causes Y. Then someone does Z.
    Subsequent reality has made the 'corrupt wrong-un' President in that seem very tame and mild mannered. It was probably quite a naive portrayal even in the halcyon days of the 90s though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,510
    Biden's helicopter departs DC
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    Overpromise and underdeliver, wasn’t it?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,147
    I watched the Inauguration on BBC1 from 3.30. It was quite interesting celeb spotting but was too drawn out, I started listening to the Trump speech but gave up after a few minutes, He is such a boring speaker - would never get a lecturing job!
  • glwglw Posts: 10,292
    GIN1138 said:

    So is America going to invade Mexico and Panama?

    Yes that's apparently the policy of the peacemaker.

    I've got to say that the whole damn speech was absolutely ridiculous, and the journalists already sanewashing this claptrap should be ashamed.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,692

    No, I see him as a US President with whom the UK right is utterly besotted. And that will have significant implications for UK politics.

    No, this is daft. You have committed an uncharacteristic fallacy: I don't like x; I don't like y; therefore x = y. I see no more evidence in here or elsewhere of the right being besotted with Trump than of the left being besotted with Putin.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,071

    This is the point. "America first" on steroids means that America is not our friend and we should act as such. The other alternative is that we capitulate and simply join the United States.
    My pension pot is already there pretty much.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,397
    Ladbrokes really missed a trick with their market - Trump to be replaced after 2029 is not impossible.

    I hope Betfair list a similar market and with that latter option separated out.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798

    He sees himself as the Messiah, as do many others.

    Who is on his Second Coming.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    They have their followers. I believe a couple of them even managed to get elected.

    Shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel was on TV last night arguing that the Tories have a far closer relationship and far greater agreement with the Trump-controlled Republicans than Reform. In the Daily Express she described Trump as an ally!

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,397
    Leon said:

    I wonder if Trump is religious

    You could write to him and ask. He might be interested in your stamp collection too. Make sure you mention it.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    They have their followers. I believe a couple of them even managed to get elected.
    So does Jeremy Corbyn, with whom by logical extension "the UK left" is "utterly besotted".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    Cookie said:

    No, this is daft. You have committed an uncharacteristic fallacy: I don't like x; I don't like y; therefore x = y. I see no more evidence in here or elsewhere of the right being besotted with Trump than of the left being besotted with Putin.
    @SouthamObserver is ignoring the secular shift to the right across the west. Trump is merely the most notable example

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,955
    edited January 20

    No, I see him as a US President with whom the UK right is utterly besotted. And that will have significant implications for UK politics.

    It's one of things that distinguishes Reform voters from all other voters, and why adding Tory + Reform is wrong. On culture war stuff, the current crop of Conservative voters are far closer to Labour.

    "Very happy about Trump election victory"

    Labour 5%
    Lib Dem 5%
    Conservative 10%

    Reform 38%
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Cookie said:

    No, this is daft. You have committed an uncharacteristic fallacy: I don't like x; I don't like y; therefore x = y. I see no more evidence in here or elsewhere of the right being besotted with Trump than of the left being besotted with Putin.
    Trump was -22 favourable amongst Tories in the last poll I can find from about a week ago. The claim is absurd.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,510
    Leon said:

    I wonder if Trump is religious

    Vance is more so, a strict Catholic whose eyes were closed in the prayers unlike the swaying Trump who was Presbyterian but now is non denominational
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,444

    Shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel was on TV last night arguing that the Tories have a far closer relationship and far greater agreement with the Trump-controlled Republicans than Reform. In the Daily Express she described Trump as an ally!

    He's the President of the USA. If you expect the British state to treat him like the leader of Nazi Germany you will be very disappointed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    CNN really not happy about Biden’s pardons
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,123
    Driver said:

    So does Jeremy Corbyn, with whom by logical extension "the UK left" is "utterly besotted".
    Hadn’t realised Corbyn was a US politician.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    Eabhal said:

    It's one of things that distinguishes Reform voters from all other voters, and why adding Tory + Reform is wrong. On culture war stuff, the current crop of Conservative voters are far closer to Labour.

    "Very happy about Trump election victory"

    Labour 5%
    Lib Dem 5%
    Conservative 10%

    Reform 38%

    Yep - Tory voters are far more circumspect. That's why it's such a surprise to see Tory MPs and shadow ministers so effusive and keen. Too much time online and reading the right wing press, I guess.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,444
    Eabhal said:

    It's one of things that distinguishes Reform voters from all other voters, and why adding Tory + Reform is wrong. On culture war stuff, the current crop of Conservative voters are far closer to Labour.

    "Very happy about Trump election victory"

    Labour 5%
    Lib Dem 5%
    Conservative 10%

    Reform 38%
    Even on those numbers, embracing anti-Trumpism could push a sizeable number of Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative voters to Reform.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,955
    edited January 20

    Yep - Tory voters are far more circumspect. That's why it's such a surprise to see Tory MPs and shadow ministers so effusive and keen. Too much time online and reading the right wing press, I guess.

    That's the other distinguishing factor - the "very online" are far more likely to be Reform voters, and that's why PB/Facebook/Reform are dominated by that particular version of right-of-centre voters.

    They are in a sub-bubble, where they know they don't represent everyone but do think they represent everyone on the right.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    He's the President of the USA. If you expect the British state to treat him like the leader of Nazi Germany you will be very disappointed.

    I would be horrified if the British state did that. I am entirely unsurprised that Reform and the Conservative party are so keen on him.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,024
    kamski said:

    Do MFN rules restrict what Trump can do in singling out countries for tariffs?
    Not really: treaties only really bind the hands of countries which abide by them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,024

    Even on those numbers, embracing anti-Trumpism could push a sizeable number of Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative voters to Reform.
    Works both ways surely: Reform embracing Trump could push a sizeable number of their voters towards other parties.

    (Also: is one-in-twenty a sizeable number?)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    Leon said:

    @SouthamObserver is ignoring the secular shift to the right across the west. Trump is merely the most notable example

    The right is in the ascendent culturally, no doubt about that, and it's actually good to see some of the bollocks of the right on left being consigned to the rubbish bin. Economically, I am less sure. The new right seems to be very much up for the state. Even Reform has called for the renationalisation of the water companies.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,397

    Hadn’t realised Corbyn was a US politician.
    The flip-side of Musk spouting off on UK issues is that it becomes far easier for UK nutters to return the favour. For once I wish Corbyn the best of luck.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090

    He sees himself as the Messiah, as do many others.

    He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,388

    Subsequent reality has made the 'corrupt wrong-un' President in that seem very tame and mild mannered. It was probably quite a naive portrayal even in the halcyon days of the 90s though.
    The President: How dare you come in here and lecture me!

    Jack Ryan: How dare *you*, sir!

    The President: How dare you come into this office and bark at me like some little junkyard dog? I am the President of the United States!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,955
    edited January 20

    Even on those numbers, embracing anti-Trumpism could push a sizeable number of Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative voters to Reform.
    That's even more interesting maths. The total proportion of voters who are "very happy" that Trump won is 11% - half Reform's current polling (total happy is 20%).

    Coming out against Trump bags you 57% (45% very unhappy). If you're a Tory and want to win some votes back from Labour and Lib Dem voters, you don't have a choice really.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,858
    rcs1000 said:

    Works both ways surely: Reform embracing Trump could push a sizeable number of their voters towards other parties.

    (Also: is one-in-twenty a sizeable number?)
    The idea that Ed Davey saying nasty things about Trump might drive LibDem supporters to vote Reform is at least an original one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    Taz said:

    Crikey he’s going on a bit

    Yeah, lost my £7 there.

    Still, not my worst bet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,122
    "The hate for ham and pineapple pizza is pure snobbery
    No, the Hawaiian has nothing to do with Italy. But yes, it is delicious
    Josh Barrie"

    https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/josh-barrie-the-hate-for-ham-and-pineapple-pizza-is-pure-snobbery/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,024
    HYUFD said:

    Vance is more so, a strict Catholic whose eyes were closed in the prayers unlike the swaying Trump who was Presbyterian but now is non denominational
    If you believe that Trump has genuine religious belief, then I have a bridge to sell you.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,611
    Andy_JS said:

    Mocking the CoE is a silly thing to do because any replacement will be more extreme because the CoE is such a liberal church.
    So liberal that they refuse to hold same sex weddings in their churches.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Cookie said:

    No, this is daft. You have committed an uncharacteristic fallacy: I don't like x; I don't like y; therefore x = y. I see no more evidence in here or elsewhere of the right being besotted with Trump than of the left being besotted with Putin.
    Johnson, Truss, Braverman, Farage and Patel were all at the inauguration.

    Not all the right are besotted with Trump of course, but many are.

    And Farage seemed quite keen on Putin as well at one point.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    Leon said:

    Just saying that doesn't make it true, I'm afraid. Especially when it flies in the face of the evidence

    It's oddly like Rachel Reeves believing that if she says "growth" enough, then "growth" will magically appear, like she is casting spells on the economy
    She believed her own propaganda about the fact it was only the Tories holding Britain back.

    Just wait for the shock when they go to the EU for a "better deal" and come back with a Mauritius.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Trump and Vance are both “Scots-Irish” to some extent.
This discussion has been closed.