How long can Trump last? – politicalbetting.com
How long can Trump last? – politicalbetting.com
The orange one will be back in the Oval Office today and Ladbrokes have a couple of betting markets related to his tenure.
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I'm not convinced by that logic. The argument for Presidential immunity is, in part, based on the idea that he can be impeached, and that that is the appropriate process to use. The immunity granted by SCOTUS should not interfere with an impeachment process.
But I agree with your other points!
Vance would then become POTUS for the remainder of Trump's term
SCOTUS hasn't given Trump immunity in relation to impeachment and conviction by the Senate - that remains a possibility for sitting Presidents. But impeachment is hugely unlikely to happen in the first two years as Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives. Whilst it is wholly possible (indeed likely) Democrats will take the House in 2026, they are less likely to take the Senate, still less with the sort of majority to put them anywhere close to the two-thirds needed to convict.
It would take something much more catastrophic than a serious tariff induced recession to get GOP senators to vote in favour of impeachment, and the Democrats aren't likely to make the mistake of starting a process they can't win, after the last time they tried it.
And as noted above, death is likely to void any market.
If you want to bet on US politics, save your powder for the midterms.
I can only see markets for winner of the 2028 election, where Vance is 11/4.
Why Penrith?
The possibility Trump may die (or be incapacitated by a stroke or whatever) is built into those odds, which would be much longer on him not serving the full term if he was a younger person. The terms of the bet could also easily say that it won't pay out in the event of death, but presumably they don't.
No sign of their falling out yet (tho I think they will, eventully)
Not good news for Labour and Starmer, given how much Musk loathes Labour and Starmer
I would be interested in an over/under 1.5 times the Dems try impeachment in the next four years though...
He hasn't just made the greatest comeback in US political history, he also escaped death by assassination by about two centimetres just a few months back
Now here he is, the 47th President. A remarkable story. You seriously would not put it in a screenplay, it would be rejected as too absurd
Have you been there ?
It could work quite well. Certainly they aren't AFAIA (which I'm not that particuarly) "passionate' about the same things which might lead to a conflict.
ETA and subsidies.
They assumed at the time that the failed attempt would rebound on the Senators who voted it down. They're unlikely to make that mistake again.
If they take control of the House in the midterms, they will be concentrating on winning in 2028.
Still, as long as he's putting the boot into Starmer and Labour, it's all good. I hope Trump excarnates Starmer
Have we ever had an American administration THIS hostile to the UK party of government? I am not sure we have
PB was utter shite during this entire election campaign. So much pathetic wishful thinking
Andreas Michaelis, German ambassador to the US and former envoy to the UK, is victim of a disabling leak of his memo to Berlin on Trump. He wrote the Trump 2.0 agenda "of maximum disruption, of breaking up established political order and bureaucratic structures, as well as his plans for revenge, ultimately mean a redefinition of the constitutional order.
"Basic democratic principles and checks and balances will be largely undermined, the legislature, law enforcement and media will be robbed of their independence and misused as a political arm, Big Tech will be given co-governing power," it says. Germany standing by their man in Washington, something Boris Johnson chose not to do when leak of similar sentiments expressed by UK ambassador in 1st term.
https://x.com/patrickwintour/status/1881340323978178812
Persian Gulf / Arabian Gulf
Using the former in the UAE does not go down well.
And whoever was around in 1812?
The Clinton administration in 1993 after Major and Central Office's support for Bush 41 in 1992 is closer and before that probably have to go back to IKE and Eden over Suez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQklEU34nNU
I genuinely believe they are so shit they are headed for unprecedented, BEYOND-Truss levels of unpopularity, so UK voters won't especially mind - or care - who is hating on them, because Brits will be hating on them even more
How do we decide what places are called? I thought a lot of places had different names depending upon who/where you are e.g. the English channel.
Just wondering what happens if I decide to change it back again, does he have to change it again? Should I drop him a line? Do I need to draw up an Executive Order of my own? Just trying to find out the process.
So the Democrats will be divided between those who think that they should impeach Trump on the merits of the case, and those who would see it as a distraction from winning the 2028 elections.
For the purposes of clarity, I am not purely gleeful at Trump coming in to office, even if I sound so. I still think there is a high potential for disaster, especially with his threatened tariffs, he is still the polar bear on the melting ice floe. But am I, on today of all days, enjoying the discomfort of the Left? Yes, of course, we are all human
Neither of them can make anyone outside their bureaucracies pay attention.
Or what else is meant by renaming the place?
If the Democrats win the 2026 midterms and take both chambers of Congress there is a 90% chance they will start impeachment proceedings against Trump in my view
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/15/tiktoks-us-unit-could-be-worth-as-much-as-50-billion-in-a-sale.html
https://x.com/gilesmacdonogh/status/1881358407921537436?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q