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Irish General Election Predictions [Part 2/2] Constituencies F – W – politicalbetting.com
Irish General Election Predictions [Part 2/2] Constituencies F – W – politicalbetting.com
I hope you all appreciated part one. Part two will have slightly more insight.
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https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1861403987687231932
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/uk-sends-kyiv-more-storm-shadows-as-starmer-pledges-support
And there's controversy around the FG candidate who was acquitted of a serious assault. Could be a surprise here.
https://kyivindependent.com/honestly-go-f-k-yourself-ukrainians-react-to-joe-rogans-rant-on-ukraine/
Former boxing champ Wladimir Klitchko has offered to go on his podcast and give the Ukranian point of view, which would be good to watch. https://x.com/klitschko/status/1860797661701460226
NB = second best bet
https://www.oddschecker.com/betting-terms/nb
I am more interested in PAW [Party for animal welfare]. I hope they build for the future.
He might attract more votes. All publicity is good publicity.
Irish politics odds are usually overexaggerated.
In the US there’s also the economic argument, where seemingly billions of dollars are being sent to Ukraine (they’re not, most of the spending is in the US), whereas little money is being made available for disaster victims in the US (see recent hurricanes and wildfires, where displaced persons were offered $750 by the Federal government).
Personally I think that winning this war is existential not only for Ukraine, but also for much of Eastern Europe, and everyone (including the US and Canada) needs to step up. There’s some early signs of significant economic disruption in Russia at the moment (inflation, interest rates, exchange rates etc) and they have at best another year before their economy starts to collapse internally.
Rogan v Klitchko will get as many viewers as Rogan v Trump did, I hope it happens.
https://x.com/fongern_fx/status/1861027003375206890
VW, profits slump by 64%.
Audi, profits slump by 91%.
BMW, profits slump by 84%.
Mercedes-Benz, profits slump by 54%.
Germany's core industry is staring into the abyss.
It ought to be libertarianism 101 that people are entitled to defend themselves, both individually and collectively.
Libertarians basically want a very small state and are fiscally conservative and socially liberal
Referee reportedly told friend ‘I hope you backed as discussed’ after he cautioned Leeds’ Ezgjan Alioski in Championship match in 2019
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/11/26/david-coote-fa-gambling-investigation-booking-leeds/
https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/11/25/irish-times-poll-fine-gael-support-slumps-as-general-election-campaign-enters-final-stretch/
So, the local hospitals don't have capacity for cataract operations and the waiting list is >12 months. Not to worry, the Healy-Raes will sort you out with a bus to Belfast to get it done privately, and have you reimbursed by the government.
Or, you're having a bit of trouble with a planning application to build a house for your son. Not to worry, the Healy-Raes will talk to the council planning department and then it's all smiles all round. Sure, didn't his grandfather know your grandfather and we're all here to help each other out?
Plus there's a lot of mileage in invoking resistance to the too clever by half eejits up in Dublin. County Dublin supplies 49 TDs this time, out of 174 in total, so Dublin and the Dublin commuter belt is of central importance for the big parties to appeal to, but independents in rural areas distant from Dublin and all its national infrastructure can make a lot of play out of standing up for the "ignored people of rural Ireland", although FF/FG bend over backwards to please the strong rural and farming lobbies.
The Healy-Raes are particularly strong in South Kerry - even the "big" city of Tralee (population 26,000) is a source of resentment.
So, two main factors. Politics in Ireland is hyper-local, many orders of magnitudes beyond what the Liberal Democrats could imagine. And the state in Ireland is dysfunctional, and local politicians have done well to exploit that dysfunctionality to build a base of support that owes them and feels reliant on their patronage.
But his is only one voice, however influential it might have been in the past, and this is not a view universally shared by other Libertarians - as shown in the responses to his occasional postings on the matter. Extremist Libertarians - the Propertarians and others - are opposed to any external involvment and almost all internal involvement of the State in human interactions. Many of us with a Libertarian bent do not agree with this extremist view and have a more nuanced view of foreign policy interventions.
At least the Celtic fans generously left out the stupid bit.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/celtic-fans-douglas-ross-banner-29193096
Mind you It doesn't let Starmer and Miliband off the hook for presiding over such declining profits and the uncertainty that will bring to towns like Ingolstadt, Wolfsburg, Munich, Stuttgart and Bremen.
(For similar reasons as to why The Groucho Club shouldn't have any members).
'Small state' people generally become tongue tied when asked to choose between abolishing the NHS, state pensions, free education or social housing.
A large chunk of this was the determination not to invest in batteries, when it came clear that batteries had won the war to power ZEVs.
Here comes a very offensive opinion. I may get banned for life from PB for making it.
"Investing in battery production" doesn't mean
- Having conferences about battery production
- Press releases about battery production
- TV interviews about battery production
- Government announcements about battery production
- 10,000 page strategy documents about battery production
- Buying batteries from China
It means taking actual money. And building actual fucking factories to build actual fucking batteries.
Anything you do every damn day, is part of your core business
OK
Could someone help cart away the "Industry leaders" who have just died of heart failure from the speaking of heresy?
So, they're always at the funerals, shaking hands, reminding people of their connections, being a real person. It's easy for me to say that the Healy-Raes are an awful pair of hypocrites and a lot more besides, but the people who vote for them know them and trust them to stand up for them in Dublin.
Has anyone informed Elon?
The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.
https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year
It's also why so many of them have so much admiration for Putin, a tough-guy authoritarian, who should be anathema to any libertarian worth the name.
But perhaps FG will do really badly. The main talking point of the campaign seems to be how crap Harris is.
Musk switches between the 2 dependent on his mood
Now, I'm liberal, but to a degree
I want ev'rybody to be free
But if you think that I'll let Barry Goldwater
Move in next door and marry my daughter
You must think I'm crazy
I wouldn't let him do it for all the farms in Cuba
"I've got a good mind to go out and join a club and beat you over the head with it"
You'd book it, bring in some ghastly cheap wine and some snacks. MPs and their assistants can't resist free booze. It was like chumming for sharks....
Anyway, Tony Blair turned up a couple of times, before he began his ascent. The reason he stuck in the mind, was that he would adopt the mannerisms (and apparently, the tenor of thought) of those he was talking to. A couple of people commented on that.
A couple of us reckoned, later, that Iraq happened because, after a week at GBWs ranch in Texas, he was a redneck Republican.
Of course you have to apply for the money. That's how benefits generally work.
A large amount of additional FEMA support was available for temporary housing, getting medical care, funeral costs, and the cost of damaged personal property.
Top hats were in fashion, as well.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65612295.amp
1) Nice ones aren’t cheap, especially vs. nearly new normal cars - Gvt can help by subsidising if we want to increase take up.
2) I am nervous of second hand batteries. More so than of engines. I might need educating.
3) I am not convinced the recharging infrastructure is in place and don’t want to wait to recharge. Gvt can fix this.
4) I like powerful cars that go vroom. Gvt cannot fix this.
Because of number 4 I am unlikely to switch in my lifetime. And I’m only 40.
This goes back to the Maui fires nearly two years ago, where the displaced people got nothing bar that initial payment. Here’s the Biden admin boasting about the $5.6m (that’s million, not billion), that they spent on 2,000 displaced households. Call it $1k per person. Most of the other assistance that could be applied for, is in the form of loans. https://www.staradvertiser.com/2023/08/18/hawaii-news/fema-has-paid-out-more-than-5-6-million-to-maui-fire-survivors/
Let’s not get into the FEMA official who was fired for telling aid workers to avoid houses showing signs of Trump support in Florida. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/08/politics/fema-employee-trump-florida-hurricane/index.html
There’s only one side caught continually lying here.
CCTV from a school obtained by the BBC shows autistic children being shoved into padded rooms, thrown to the floor, restrained by the neck - or left alone, sitting in vomit.
The footage from Whitefield School in north-east London resembles "torture", one safeguarding expert told us. It shows for the first time the reality of what pupils faced.
Pupils attending Whitefield school are happy, well cared for and kept safe. Pupils are
treated with dignity and respect and enjoy positive relationships with adults. Staff
are highly knowledgeable about working with the considerable range of varying
needs.
The school in question is https://www.whitefieldschool.org.uk/ , not to be confused with https://www.whitefield.barnet.sch.uk/
(full disclosure: I still prefer them and haven't switched)
{runs away giggling}
Politicians fail to understand that the only place you’ll find the public transport system of cenral London, is central London.
*just behind the TV licence.
A system of fines isn't going to create that; it's just going to further erode what little we have left.
Deal with, and incentives for one of more overseas manufacturers to build manufacturing capacity here (for both batteries and vehicles) are essential.
Also, with current battery developments, the best manufacturers will reach cost parity with ICE vehicles within two to three years. so there isn't a lot of time to carry on messing around.
If you're in American suburbia and have plenty of space for charging at home then buying a second or third car that's an EV isn't such a big deal. If it's your only car then it needs to be able to handle everything you might ever want to do with it.
Stellantis are moving electric van work which would have happened at Luton up to Ellesmere port, and the diesel van work to an existing factory in France. Given they manufacture both Vauxhall and french brands of van at these factories - many for export, it's fairly clear they don't expect tariffs in either direction.
"Stellantis said the decision has been ‘made within the context of the UK’s ZEV Mandate’, a government policy that dictates EVs must make up a certain percentage of carmakers’ sales each year. "
But no, it's the Brexit!