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Irish General Election Predictions [Part 2/2] Constituencies F – W – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645

    Pulpstar said:

    Maybe turnout is down in these states, or perhaps they're counting slowly, or both but currently:

    % of 2 party turnout from last time:

    88.99% CA
    90.00% HI
    92.44% NY
    92.94% IL
    92.94% OR
    93.16% NJ
    93.19% MA
    93.48% MS
    93.54% LA
    93.85% DC
    94.26% AK

    Many Democrat votes from 2020 stayed home? Likely young people?

    On 2020 dems are down 6,887,121

    Trump is up 2,655,662

    Votes cast 2020 158,427,986 65.8% turnout
    2024 155,803,701 63.7%

    It was actually a tight election.
    The GOP can be soundly beaten in both PV and EC next time, without transferring a single vote to Dems. They are electorally on thin ice.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    Leon said:

    Just heard that one of my oldest and best friends is aiming to become a Tory MP in 2028-9!

    Completely out of the blue. But she could easily do it. Very clever, very shrewd, strategically smart, a gift for geting on with anyone, and a book of contacts to kill for

    Watch that space

    "Very clever, very shrewd, strategically smart, a gift for geting[sic] on with anyone"? Is she sure she's chosen the right party? :lol:
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Gas really needs to be the last resort though. We should only be burning gas when weather conditions are such that all other options - storage, demand management, etc - have reached their limit. Ideally the large power surplus at other times can then be used to extract CO2 from the atmosphere to acheive net zero emissions.
    Gas will naturally be run down as we add more renewables to the grid. Every time a panel gets added to the grid, it is essentially producing power in perpetuity.

    So, we need to stop worrying about natural gas (which is in the general scheme of things pretty unpolluting anyway), and make it as easy as possible for people to add new storage and renewables.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    Arguably not! Possibly retired or perhaps not in work.

    Utterly bonkers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    What gives you that understanding, do you have something to link to?
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Scotland currently has 50GW of renewable capacity in development, including 24GW of pumped hydro and battery which helps with intermittency. That's in addition to our 15GW of current capacity.

    Given our average consumption is about 16GW at the moment, I think we'll be fine.
    Why, England will steal it for sure and make us pay 3x to get any back.
    I should've clarified about the 16GW consumption - that's all energy consumption, including that from gas boilers, ICE cars and ferries.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,316

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    I'd characterise the foxes I would frequently encounter on the means streets of Islington as arrogant rather than sly. This is what happens when you don't hunt the buggers. That Birmingham pub should change its name to The Arrogant Fox, adorned with a sign depicting one attacking a baby.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-london-21420492
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    Eventually, there will be so much solar capacity, that even on the darkest day of the year and even if it overcast all (the short) day, that 24 hours worth of UK electricity will be generated.

    It's the inevitable consequence of continued falling solar panel prices.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    They should change it temporarily to The PETA Pillock.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,443

    If anyone is bothered...

    "I am pleased to announce that our new Chancellor will be Lord Hague of Richmond, having achieved over 50% of the votes in the final stage of the election."

    No dice for Mandelson in Oxford.

    "in the final stage" -- so after transferring preferences?
    Full result:

    First Stage

    Lord Hague: 9,589
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 6,296
    Baroness Jan Royall: 3,599
    Lord Peter Mandelson: 2,940
    Rt Hon Dominic Grieve: 2,484 (eliminated and votes transferred)

    Second Stage

    Lord Hague: 10,472
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 6,915
    Baroness Jan Royall: 3,945
    Lord Peter Mandelson: 3,344 (eliminated and votes transferred)

    Third Stage

    Lord Hague: 11,766
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 7,727
    Baroness Jan Royall: 4,662 (eliminated and votes transferred)

    Final Stage

    Lord Hague: 12,609 (Elected)
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 11,006

    Mandy flopped somewhat. I think he has his hat in the ring for Ambassador to US
    though.
    The alumni actively voted against a current head of college being appointed, which I think was the right decision.

    FWIW I was actively canvassed by a former colleague of Hague’s on his behalf
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    Errrrrr.

    Did you mean to reply to another comment perhaps?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    There to be "usefully impotent', in Patten's words.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    What gives you that understanding, do you have something to link to?
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
    That’s not fitting the narrative of one term government due to incompetence. Who’s side are you on 😠
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    Arguably not! Possibly retired or perhaps not in work.

    Utterly bonkers.
    On the other hand, PETA have got themselves on to the BBC website. That may, perhaps, have been the point.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Solar. Solar. Solar.

    You think I'm joking, but panel prices have absolutely collapsed, and it's getting economic to put them up pretty much everywhere now.

    And electric cars are the perfect complement to intermittent power generation, because they can soak up excess power produced by renewables thanks to their batteries.
    No, that makes sense.
    Increasingly so, even at our latitude and low levels of sunshine.

    But the big wind projects will carry on for quite a while, as the two are complementary, and battery prices aren't cheap enough (nor production volumes high enough) to cover the intermittency gap.

    Incidentally, there are some studies suggesting it will soon be most economic just to massively overbuild solar (like 5-10 times), to generate sufficient power even in winter, rather than trying to fill the most stubborn intermittency gaps with more than a day's worth of storage.
    Won't that cheap electricity during the summer induce massive consumer and industrial demand, so we'll always be chasing storage during the winter? There will always be a value in balancing output through the year.

    I'm thinking a bit how GPUs keep getting better, but the games keep getting better too.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    edited November 27
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    Errrrrr.

    Did you mean to reply to another comment perhaps?
    Probably 🤦‍♀️

    Or this might be your rapid fire quiz round.

    Does LA have flies all year round, or do some hide in cracks for a bit anyway?

    Is it true British Baked beans are far superior to US baked beans?

    Birds of doom keep being washed up on California beaches, worried yet?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    I'd characterise the foxes I would frequently encounter on the means streets of Islington as arrogant rather than sly. This is what happens when you don't hunt the buggers. That Birmingham pub should change its name to The Arrogant Fox, adorned with a sign depicting one attacking a baby.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-london-21420492
    I'd go with the Lawyer in Wife's Kimono, with a sign of a fox being bludgeoned to death by said lawyer.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,857

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    Don't tell them about Beatrix Potter. Keep them away from Jemima Puddleduck.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Solar. Solar. Solar.

    You think I'm joking, but panel prices have absolutely collapsed, and it's getting economic to put them up pretty much everywhere now.

    And electric cars are the perfect complement to intermittent power generation, because they can soak up excess power produced by renewables thanks to their batteries.
    No, that makes sense.
    Increasingly so, even at our latitude and low levels of sunshine.

    But the big wind projects will carry on for quite a while, as the two are complementary, and battery prices aren't cheap enough (nor production volumes high enough) to cover the intermittency gap.

    Incidentally, there are some studies suggesting it will soon be most economic just to massively overbuild solar (like 5-10 times), to generate sufficient power even in winter, rather than trying to fill the most stubborn intermittency gaps with more than a day's worth of storage. /
    That's pretty much 100% true. At a certain price of solar panel, it becomes the default option.

    And it's amazing how few people have caught up with this yet.
    That's because all of this stuff is coming from China; there's an instinctive reluctance to accept it, I think.
    Which is a bit silly considering it's all on top of a western technology base. We just lacked the political will to spend the money to build it fast.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    What gives you that understanding, do you have something to link to?
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
    Yet more evidence of people fleeing the UK under a Labour government!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    Errrrrr.

    Did you mean to reply to another comment perhaps?
    As I always said, the best part of a cheese sandwich is the crust.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Solar. Solar. Solar.

    You think I'm joking, but panel prices have absolutely collapsed, and it's getting economic to put them up pretty much everywhere now.

    And electric cars are the perfect complement to intermittent power generation, because they can soak up excess power produced by renewables thanks to their batteries.
    No, that makes sense.
    Increasingly so, even at our latitude and low levels of sunshine.

    But the big wind projects will carry on for quite a while, as the two are complementary, and battery prices aren't cheap enough (nor production volumes high enough) to cover the intermittency gap.

    Incidentally, there are some studies suggesting it will soon be most economic just to massively overbuild solar (like 5-10 times), to generate sufficient power even in winter, rather than trying to fill the most stubborn intermittency gaps with more than a day's worth of storage. /
    That's pretty much 100% true. At a certain price of solar panel, it becomes the default option.

    And it's amazing how few people have caught up with this yet.
    And solar is still hugely under-used on domestic roofs, factories, car parks, pretty much everywhere.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,708
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    What gives you that understanding, do you have something to link to?
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
    If that trend continues it should send a chill down the spin of every Tory and Reform supporter. If Sir Keir can portray himself as immigrant-basher-in-chief then his pasta sauce and Rachel's CV will matter not one jot.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,443
    Carnyx said:

    If anyone is bothered...

    "I am pleased to announce that our new Chancellor will be Lord Hague of Richmond, having achieved over 50% of the votes in the final stage of the election."

    No dice for Mandelson in Oxford.

    "in the final stage" -- so after transferring preferences?
    Indeed. I wondered how Elish Angiolini did, being a Scots lawyer and former Solicitor General etc. at Holyrood, and on investigation she was coming very fast up the last straight behind Lord H when they passed the post.

    https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2024-11-27-lord-hague-richmond-elected-new-chancellor-
    oxford-university
    The second to last was also a university president (on was Hugh’s and the other Somerville).

    I voted against both on principle: the chancellor should be an outside not someone promoted from the executive. Basic governance requirement
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    What gives you that understanding, do you have something to link to?
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/13977484/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
    If that trend continues it should send a chill down the spin of every Tory and Reform supporter. If Sir Keir can portray himself as immigrant-basher-in-chief then his pasta sauce and Rachel's CV will matter not one jot.
    Did the *UK* Sun actually report that? Yes, it did ... forget the pasta sauce, then.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/30977601/deportation-flights-up-keir-starmer-election/
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932
    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    I might be one of the courses I suppose.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    Selebian said:

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    Arguably not! Possibly retired or perhaps not in work.

    Utterly bonkers.
    On the other hand, PETA have got themselves on to the BBC website. That may, perhaps, have been the point.

    The pub's defence should really be that they're named for the disgraced former defence secretary, not the animal :wink:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    kjh said:

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    I might be one of the courses I suppose.
    Well don’t go all woke at the last minute. Remember we must maintain a bridge to the past, for stability, structure and purpose.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    ‪Lewis Goodall‬ ‪@lewisgoodall.com‬
    ·
    54m
    Mishal Husain one of the very best broadcasters/interviewers the BBC has. Massive loss to the corporation.

    https://bsky.app/profile/lewisgoodall.com/post/3lbwrvbezhc23
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    Errrrrr.

    Did you mean to reply to another comment perhaps?
    As I always said, the best part of a cheese sandwich is the crust.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pygmy_hippopotamus
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Solar. Solar. Solar.

    You think I'm joking, but panel prices have absolutely collapsed, and it's getting economic to put them up pretty much everywhere now.

    And electric cars are the perfect complement to intermittent power generation, because they can soak up excess power produced by renewables thanks to their batteries.
    No, that makes sense.
    Increasingly so, even at our latitude and low levels of sunshine.

    But the big wind projects will carry on for quite a while, as the two are complementary, and battery prices aren't cheap enough (nor production volumes high enough) to cover the intermittency gap.

    Incidentally, there are some studies suggesting it will soon be most economic just to massively overbuild solar (like 5-10 times), to generate sufficient power even in winter, rather than trying to fill the most stubborn intermittency gaps with more than a day's worth of storage.
    Won't that cheap electricity during the summer induce massive consumer and industrial demand, so we'll always be chasing storage during the winter? There will always be a value in balancing output through the year.

    I'm thinking a bit how GPUs keep getting better, but the games keep getting better too.
    We haven't yet adjusted to the idea of power abundance.
    It's going to change an awful lot of things (though given the still real constraints on overall global panel manufacturing capacity, it will take a while).

    The UK is something of an outlier anyway - most of the world's population lives in areas better insolated. Some far better.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    We once googled 'personal chair' and a rather risque inflatable was offered, with some sort of spike that you are supposed to sit on...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422
    This is an interesting research question: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304393219302004

    Basically, Trump being an inconsistent nutter who randomly said things hit Investment. “Trade policy uncertainty reduced U.S. investment by about 1.5% in 2018.”

    This will all happen again with Trump currently talking about introducing big tariffs in day 1.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    We once googled 'personal chair' and a rather risque inflatable was offered, with some sort of spike that you are supposed to sit on...
    Oh! :open_mouth: I was thinking more of Granny Weatherwax being offered a chair by Ridcully.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,920
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    If anyone is bothered...

    "I am pleased to announce that our new Chancellor will be Lord Hague of Richmond, having achieved over 50% of the votes in the final stage of the election."

    No dice for Mandelson in Oxford.

    "in the final stage" -- so after transferring preferences?
    Full result:

    First Stage

    Lord Hague: 9,589
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 6,296
    Baroness Jan Royall: 3,599
    Lord Peter Mandelson: 2,940
    Rt Hon Dominic Grieve: 2,484 (eliminated and votes transferred)

    Second Stage

    Lord Hague: 10,472
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 6,915
    Baroness Jan Royall: 3,945
    Lord Peter Mandelson: 3,344 (eliminated and votes transferred)

    Third Stage

    Lord Hague: 11,766
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 7,727
    Baroness Jan Royall: 4,662 (eliminated and votes transferred)

    Final Stage

    Lord Hague: 12,609 (Elected)
    Lady Elish Angiolini: 11,006

    Mandy flopped somewhat. I think he has his hat in the ring for Ambassador to US though.
    Excellent result for Lord Hague who clearly loves Oxford University and will do a great job
    Hague picked up 3020 second...and third etc preference votes.
    Lady Angiolini 4710 such.
    Hardly a ringing endorsement.
    She was the local candidate, having been Principal of St Hugh's for over a decade.
    So not a surprise she picked up a heap of third preferences. Hague's big lead on first preferences is a pretty strong endorsement for a Tory politician, in the wake of the last decade of government.
    But when he was politically active, was Hague incompetent? Was he corrupt and self-serving?

    It may be that Hague is not a proper Conservative..... We must consult HY......
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932
    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Instantaneous load is pretty meaningless without storage “depth”

    Even at the grid smoothing time scale.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    PETA have always been performative nutcases.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    That said, 70GW would be a lot, enough to cover current peak demand, I think? So 70GWh probably more likely and at lower max power?

  • ‪Lewis Goodall‬ ‪@lewisgoodall.com‬
    ·
    54m
    Mishal Husain one of the very best broadcasters/interviewers the BBC has. Massive loss to the corporation.

    https://bsky.app/profile/lewisgoodall.com/post/3lbwrvbezhc23

    Going to Bloomberg, apparently. Presumably for a higher salary and certainly for one that is confidential and isn't a political football.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Correct. We have about 3GW of potential output from hydro at the moment, storage of 24GWh.

    I think total storage (battery and hydro) in development is about 200GWh.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932
    edited November 27

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    PETA have always been performative nutcases.
    Whoops post to the wrong post. Too much celebrating by me.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932
    edited November 27

    kjh said:

    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

    Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.
  • This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    PETA have always been performative nutcases.
    I was wondering whether the problem they have is with the ageist nature of the name or the suggestion that a fox could be deceitful? Or is it the combination?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    edited November 27
    kjh said:

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    I might be one of the courses I suppose.
    "The swan is excellent," said the Dean. "A fine bird and the widgeon gives it a certain gamin flavour."
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    We once googled 'personal chair' and a rather risque inflatable was offered, with some sort of spike that you are supposed to sit on...
    Do you still have the link?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Dems took the lead last night in CA House District 13 - after Reps had led all the way until now.

    Current House position:

    Reps 219, Dems 213

    Three races still to call:

    CA 13 - Dem leads by 182 votes (out of 208,000 total)
    CA 45 - Dem leads by 613 votes (out of 315,000 total)
    IA 1 - Rep leads by 798 votes (out of 413,000 total)

    So if the leader wins in all three remaining races the final result will be:

    Reps 220, Dems 215
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Carnyx said:

    kjh said:

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    I might be one of the courses I suppose.
    "The swan is excellent," said the Dean. "A fine bird and the widgeon gives it a certain gamin flavour."
    Tom Sharpe was a friend of mine's god father.
  • kjh said:

    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

    Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    I have one every 4 years !!!!

    So my 80th was only my 20th actual birthday, and it has caused confusion throughout my life, no more so then as a child when I had 2 as my Mother and Father couldn't agree a date

    My Mother said I was born in February, and my Father said not the 28th, so I had the 1st March as well !!!!!!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    edited November 27
    And in other news that may become more prominent:

    "JUST NOW: After launching a shock offensive this morning, the Syrian opposition is just 5 miles away from entering Aleppo City.

    They've barrelled through regime and Russian positions — taking over a dozen villages in Aleppo province."

    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1861784431951843476

    Edit:
    https://defence-blog.com/syrian-rebels-launch-major-offensive/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114

    This has appeared on the BBC website:

    "An animal rights group has been accused of undermining real issues after asking a pub to change its name, claiming it is offensive to foxes.
    The People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals group (Peta) wrote to owners of The Sly Old Fox on Hurst Street, Birmingham, saying the name was "derogatory"."

    I'm suppose I'm moderately woke, but haven't people anything better to do?

    I'd characterise the foxes I would frequently encounter on the means streets of Islington as arrogant rather than sly. This is what happens when you don't hunt the buggers. That Birmingham pub should change its name to The Arrogant Fox, adorned with a sign depicting one attacking a baby.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-london-21420492
    Personally I would prefer to be referred to as a sly old fox.

    I leave baby eating to the PB Tories.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,122
    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Cookie said:

    1 Russian Ruble now equals 0.0089 United States Dollar.

    It's quite fun watching this.

    Is this ACTUALLY the Ruble declining, or it the Dollar appreciating?
    The Rouble is heading towards free fall. It is falling as fast against the Euro and other currencies too.
    As someone else said, it's falling similarly against the Euro:
    https://www.xe.com/en-gb/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=RUB&To=EUR

    And interestingly, the Chinese Yuan:
    https://www.xe.com/en-gb/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=RUB&To=CNY
    Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Bank Rossii, was looking pretty grim a few days ago. Interest rates at 21% and set to rise further in December. Meanwhile massive and unsustainable hikes in military spending, the economy overheating and even more sanctions. It looks like they have run out of reserves to defend the currency.

    If the RUR collapses against the Yuan then it could well be game over.
    That is a real concern and what would you expect to follow that event ?
    The Rouble falls apart and they can not pay the bills. China could step in to rescue, but that is quite a risky option.
    I think a much bigger problem for Russia is the extent to which production and distribution of basic foodstuffs has been affected by the war. Putin's desire to shield the youth in St Petersberg and Moscow from conscription has meant that Russia has had to rely on the rural young, and that's having a significant impact on farm production. The prices of fresh vegetables have nearly doubled this year.

    I don't think that's sustainable.
    Yes, and that is not the only massive distortion in their economy, it is causing significant power distribution problems too.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    We once googled 'personal chair' and a rather risque inflatable was offered, with some sort of spike that you are supposed to sit on...
    Do you still have the link?
    Naughty. Google it on your own device1
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080
    Another raft of local by-elections tomorrow mainly caused by new MPs resigning their council seats. A fairly simple picture with Lab defences in Barking and Dagenham(x3), Enfield, Fife, Islington, Sheffield, and West Dunbartonshire; together with LD defences in South Gloucestershire and York. Once again no Con defences.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    And in other news that may become more prominent:

    "JUST NOW: After launching a shock offensive this morning, the Syrian opposition is just 5 miles away from entering Aleppo City.

    They've barrelled through regime and Russian positions — taking over a dozen villages in Aleppo province."

    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1861784431951843476

    Operation 'Die Wacht Am Rhein" was pretty successful at the start too.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080
    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    Related, very loosely, to the header: For some time I have been speculating that national flags with specific meanings -- for example, those of the US and the UK -- belong to nations that are proud of their history, while anonymous tri-colors belong to nations that aren't.

    A well confirmed hypothesis, true beyond all doubt. At this moment there isn't a single thing in the whole of the last 3000 years of history that any Italian or French person could take the smallest bit of pride in.
    Lots of colonialism and neo-colonialism, racism (see colonialism)....

    Suggesting that there is anything to be proud of in that history makes you literally worse than that guy who is literally worse than Hitler.
    Many tricolours do have specific meanings.
    France: Liberty, equality, fraternity.
    Germany: The colours of the army which fought against Napoleon
    Belgium: Three of the 7(?) provinces which made up Belgium, I think? (What about the other four?)
    Ireland: Catholics, Protestants and the hope that they can live in peace together.

    I'm sure there are many more.
    Blue is often used to represent the sea or the sky. Thus Ukraine is yellow for the grain and blue for the sky.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405

    And in other news that may become more prominent:

    "JUST NOW: After launching a shock offensive this morning, the Syrian opposition is just 5 miles away from entering Aleppo City.

    They've barrelled through regime and Russian positions — taking over a dozen villages in Aleppo province."

    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1861784431951843476

    Edit:
    https://defence-blog.com/syrian-rebels-launch-major-offensive/

    13 year old war !
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Kinell. 4pm. Stygian
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    MikeL said:

    Dems took the lead last night in CA House District 13 - after Reps had led all the way until now.

    Current House position:

    Reps 219, Dems 213

    Three races still to call:

    CA 13 - Dem leads by 182 votes (out of 208,000 total)
    CA 45 - Dem leads by 613 votes (out of 315,000 total)
    IA 1 - Rep leads by 798 votes (out of 413,000 total)

    So if the leader wins in all three remaining races the final result will be:

    Reps 220, Dems 215

    Except, there are three Republicans who have either resigned (Matt Gaetz), or about to resign to take up roles in the administration (Michael Waltz and Elise Stefanik).

    That means that the vote will be 217 vs 215 until the special elections happen. (The Florida 1st is not until April 1, for example.)

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Dems took the lead last night in CA House District 13 - after Reps had led all the way until now.

    Current House position:

    Reps 219, Dems 213

    Three races still to call:

    CA 13 - Dem leads by 182 votes (out of 208,000 total)
    CA 45 - Dem leads by 613 votes (out of 315,000 total)
    IA 1 - Rep leads by 798 votes (out of 413,000 total)

    So if the leader wins in all three remaining races the final result will be:

    Reps 220, Dems 215

    Except, there are three Republicans who have either resigned (Matt Gaetz), or about to resign to take up roles in the administration (Michael Waltz and Elise Stefanik).

    That means that the vote will be 217 vs 215 until the special elections happen. (The Florida 1st is not until April 1, for example.)

    Just to add: it's not inconceivable that the New York 21st (Elisa Stefanik) could end up flipping. It's a 60:40 district, but if Democrats are fired up, and turnout is low, they stand a chance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 27
    Jeremy Moody the secretary and adviser to the CAAV said the measures will in fact hit 2,500 farmers each year, five times the Treasury’s estimates.

    While the Government has insisted that this analysis incorporates claims for both BPR and APR combined, Mr Moody said it has approached the calculation in the wrong way.

    The Treasury analysis was based on how many estates claimed APR and then claimed BPR, but this has “completely missed” the people who are farmers but only claim BPR, Mr Moody said.

    The Treasury and the BBC’s analysis has therefore missed people who own the land but do not own the farmhouse (such as those in farming partnerships), people who only have tenanted businesses and therefore do not own land or buildings, and farmers who are shareholders in family companies.

    Over a generation, Mr Moody said 75,000 farms will be affected by the changes.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/27/tractor-tax-hits-five-times-more-farmers-reeves-claims/

    Not surprising the BBC Verify matches the Treasury, as the Treasury policy is taken from work of the same individual who BBC Verified used.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Somewhat dystopian BBC News advert framing itself as leading the fight against disinformation:

    https://www.bbccreative.co.uk/project/bbc-news-trust-is-earned-2/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Eabhal said:

    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Correct. We have about 3GW of potential output from hydro at the moment, storage of 24GWh.

    I think total storage (battery and hydro) in development is about 200GWh.
    Which is about 5 hours of grid usage, IIRC.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Labour List has just updated its list of Labour MP declared positions on Assisted Dying. It is now:

    For 83
    Against 52

    (Approx two thirds undecided or unknown)

    https://labourlist.org/2024/11/assisted-dying-bill-labour-mps-kim-leadbeater/
  • kjh said:

    kjh said:

    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

    Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.
    I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
    My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,126
    edited November 27

    Jeremy Moody the secretary and adviser to the CAAV said the measures will in fact hit 2,500 farmers each year, five times the Treasury’s estimates.

    While the Government has insisted that this analysis incorporates claims for both BPR and APR combined, Mr Moody said it has approached the calculation in the wrong way.

    The Treasury analysis was based on how many estates claimed APR and then claimed BPR, but this has “completely missed” the people who are farmers but only claim BPR, Mr Moody said.

    The Treasury and the BBC’s analysis has therefore missed people who own the land but do not own the farmhouse (such as those in farming partnerships), people who only have tenanted businesses and therefore do not own land or buildings, and farmers who are shareholders in family companies.

    Over a generation, Mr Moody said 75,000 farms will be affected by the changes.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/27/tractor-tax-hits-five-times-more-farmers-reeves-claims/

    Not surprising the BBC Verify matches the Treasury, as the Treasury policy is taken from work of the same individual who BBC Verified used.

    The Treasury then was only out by a factor of 5, which is actually quite good for government guesses.

    I remember the Home Office forecasting that 13,000 East Europeans would come when we allowed them to work here, and four or five million came, so a factor of three or four hundred.

    Is that the all time record miss on an important matter?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,694

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

    Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.
    I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
    My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!
    Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932
    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kjh said:

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    I might be one of the courses I suppose.
    "The swan is excellent," said the Dean. "A fine bird and the widgeon gives it a certain gamin flavour."
    Tom Sharpe was a friend of mine's god father.
    The college is Peterhouse and I keep having to think before saying it to ensure I don't say Porterhouse. If I drop that clanger on the night I might end up as one of the dishes.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,694
    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kjh said:

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    But what does a University Chancellor actually do, apart from intermittently knock a rod on a gate shouting something in Latin, and attend the annual feast once a year, where the Kings Menagerie are table slapped in, in cages, and then glassed to death?
    It's all a load of poppycock and nonsense isn't it. At least that was my view until as part of my 70th birthday celebrations I have been invited to sit on the high table on Sunday at one of the Cambridge College formals where my son's girlfriend is a fellow.

    I now of course think it is a wonderful ritual.

    I will be having words with them though as to why they grubbed up their medlar tree and deprived me of the fruit this year.
    Sit on the high table? Do they not have chairs? Or have all those been used up creating professorial positions? :wink:
    I might be one of the courses I suppose.
    "The swan is excellent," said the Dean. "A fine bird and the widgeon gives it a certain gamin flavour."
    Tom Sharpe was a friend of mine's god father.
    The college is Peterhouse and I keep having to think before saying it to ensure I don't say Porterhouse. If I drop that clanger on the night I might end up as one of the dishes.
    Sounds like a great present.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942

    Eabhal said:

    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Correct. We have about 3GW of potential output from hydro at the moment, storage of 24GWh.

    I think total storage (battery and hydro) in development is about 200GWh.
    Which is about 5 hours of grid usage, IIRC.
    More like 10, after taking into account nuclear and max imports from Europe.

    If you consider we are going to treble our wind power, weakest extended period over the past year is equivalent to about 10GW, so that would give us 19 hours.

    But in that scenario, we'd have fired up the gas to tide us over.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

    Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.
    I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
    My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!
    Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.
    In Simone de Buevoir's autobiography she wrote something like

    At 35, I felt essentially the same as I did at 25

    At 45, the same as 35. And at 55, the same as 45.

    It was only at 65 that I felt noticably different to how I was a decade before.

    I'm glad that 85 is the new 65.

    Of course, she smoked like a chimney too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    Reform claiming that they are closing in on 100k members.

    https://www.reformparty.uk/join

    How are the Tories doing?
  • lintolinto Posts: 43

    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Instantaneous load is pretty meaningless without storage “depth”

    Even at the grid smoothing time scale.
    Aren't we at the pont now where it makes sense to just put panels on every roof instead of tiles since they're cheaper or at least equivalent in cost? I know when I recently re-roofed the solar panels weren't any more expensive than tiles per m2. But you'd also need to add in battery storage etc which adds to the cost since export rates are so poor.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 27
    So it seems like the treasury / academic at Warwick university* has fundamentally misunderstood the structure of the farming business and as a result smaller scale tax dodgers and mega corps are unaffected, genuine farmers are in the firing line.

    * given his previous musings, it might be more deliberate than accidental, as very much thinks the state should own the means of production.
  • Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Correct. We have about 3GW of potential output from hydro at the moment, storage of 24GWh.

    I think total storage (battery and hydro) in development is about 200GWh.
    Which is about 5 hours of grid usage, IIRC.
    More like 10, after taking into account nuclear and max imports from Europe.

    If you consider we are going to treble our wind power, weakest extended period over the past year is equivalent to about 10GW, so that would give us 19 hours.

    But in that scenario, we'd have fired up the gas to tide us over.
    Whole new business models will no doubt emerge to take advantage of cheap electricity for most of the time in return for being prepared to shut down when supplies are tight. I'm sure demand management will play at least as big a role as storage in the future.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    linto said:

    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Instantaneous load is pretty meaningless without storage “depth”

    Even at the grid smoothing time scale.
    Aren't we at the pont now where it makes sense to just put panels on every roof instead of tiles since they're cheaper or at least equivalent in cost? I know when I recently re-roofed the solar panels weren't any more expensive than tiles per m2. But you'd also need to add in battery storage etc which adds to the cost since export rates are so poor.
    For residentials, we're closing in, but we're not there yet. (We're - say - about 3 years away.)

    If you're building a factory or a supermarket, mind, then you're probably there in all but the most northerly parts of the UK.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,720
    edited November 27
    linto said:

    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Instantaneous load is pretty meaningless without storage “depth”

    Even at the grid smoothing time scale.
    Aren't we at the pont now where it makes sense to just put panels on every roof instead of tiles since they're cheaper or at least equivalent in cost? I know when I recently re-roofed the solar panels weren't any more expensive than tiles per m2. But you'd also need to add in battery storage etc which adds to the cost since export rates are so poor.
    They appear to be no more expensive than fence panels. Something wrong there, surely.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    They have approaching 12000 since end of July.

    Early instant impact of spending a fraction of the exorbitant amount wasted of Rwanda vanity project in to more focus on processing claims.

    They have specialist experienced teams working on oldest claims and newer newly recruited teams working on newer arrivals.

    Working the pipeline at both ends.

    Commonsense in any business very rare when Politicians are involved.

    A very clear example that when Starmer says he has run huge departments that he has and can walk the walk and not just talk.

    A PM with genuine managerial experience. Boring and bland maybe, lacking charisma probably but rolling his sleeves up and getting things done.
    The interminable strikes have stopped too, which must be helping to get things done.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

    Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.
    I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
    My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!
    Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.
    Unfortunately, it can go wrong a lot earlier than that... :(
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Leon said:

    Kinell. 4pm. Stygian

    Norman tore a strip off the back page of the Sun, turned it into shape of a stick, and twirled the stick around in his right ear. “Over there -“ he gestured, with his left flapper, “there’s a book - Magical Britain by Rob Wildwood. Take a look.”
    “Where, exactly?” You asked, rising onto elbows, but seeing only that bare wall coughing had come through all last night.
    “You know where it is.” Norman smirked, eyeballing and sniffing his stick before transferring it into his left ear. “If it keeps you quiet for the rest of the week, it’ll be a proper blessing.”
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,610
    edited November 27

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

    Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.
    I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
    My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!
    Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.
    And me !!!!!

    Though the medics have done a good job so far for me
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141


    ‪Lewis Goodall‬ ‪@lewisgoodall.com‬
    ·
    54m
    Mishal Husain one of the very best broadcasters/interviewers the BBC has. Massive loss to the corporation.

    https://bsky.app/profile/lewisgoodall.com/post/3lbwrvbezhc23

    Oh God, the last bulwark against Today becoming a chummy, lower middle-brow smugfest, gone.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    viewcode said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

    Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.
    I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
    My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!
    Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.
    Unfortunately, it can go wrong a lot earlier than that... :(
    Tell me about it... :(
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    linto said:

    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    Has anyone given any thought to how the electricity will be generated to power this new fleet of EV cars that will be tearing up and down the country.

    Especially in winter when those batteries will be less efficient and have more demands for the power - lights, heating, demisting etc etc.

    A few more offshore wind turbines ?

    Lights ? How much juice do you think LED consumes ?

    There is huge grid capacity available between 11:30pm and 6:30AM every day of the year.

    Probably enough to fully charge 7 million cars a week already.

    A more relevant question is what do we do when there no wind.
    We recently had 14 days when our solar panels struggled and the blades on the wind farm in the Irish sea barely turned

    I just do not understand why nuclear and tidal haven't been the same priority
    Because nuclear is extremely expensive, and historically has had poor uptime.

    You want dispatchable power to combine with intermittent power generation - and that makes gas by far the best back up option.
    Just common sense to be fair, but not for the green lobby
    Not sure who this green lobby are, but the CCC have us using gas to deal with intermittency into to the 2050s. I don't think that will be needed - that UK currently has 70GW of battery capacity in development.

    (And on RCS's point, 31GW of solar in development, with 9GW operational at the moment).
    70GW of battery doesn’t make much sense.

    Unless it means 70GWh?
    Surely both measures are relevant - storage capacity and instantaneous power that can be delivered?
    Instantaneous load is pretty meaningless without storage “depth”

    Even at the grid smoothing time scale.
    Aren't we at the pont now where it makes sense to just put panels on every roof instead of tiles since they're cheaper or at least equivalent in cost? I know when I recently re-roofed the solar panels weren't any more expensive than tiles per m2. But you'd also need to add in battery storage etc which adds to the cost since export rates are so poor.
    They appear to be no more expensive than fence panels. Something wrong there, surely.
    Making solar cells is not complex or - when done at scale - particularly expensive.

    The issue right now is that the other costs (installation and inverters) have not come down at the same rate as panels. That is changing.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    edited November 27
    rcs1000 said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    It has been a wonderful November. I enjoy it anyway as we have 4 birthdays and a wedding anniversary in the month as well as bonfire night and I enjoy the cooking in November in preparation for Christmas. I have already made the pudding and mincemeat and bottled the sloe gin and the Christmas cake is midway through its long journey. Lots of pickle has been made with the apples from my garden, but as mentioned I am having to give the medlars a miss this year. The Stollen will wait until December as it only lasts 1 day at a time; the rest will improve with time.

    My birthday is normally forgotten as it is the last in the long list but this year it has been fantastic. I have received several lovely presents (all doing things, not physical things) and taken friends out for dinner here in Surrey, in Southwold and Cambridge next weekend. In addition I have been treated to a Michelin star meal in Surrey and will have another on Friday in Cambridge and of course on top of that I will have the formal dinner on Sunday.

    I'm enjoying November.

    I would still rather be 30 than 70, but fortunately I am still very fit.

    Maybe you would still be 30 if you didn’t have 4 birthdays in a month. Stick to one a year.
    Birthdays for my son, daughter, wife, then anniversary, then my birthday all in the space of 10 days. The anniversary is definitely my fault. My wife gave me an ultimatum to get married by my 40th birthday. I celebrated it on the flight to the honeymoon. Definitely cut it fine.
    I feel conned out of my 60th birthday celebrations, it was during lockdown.
    My son sent me a nice food hamper but I had to cook the meal myself. Roll on 70!
    Looking at my diary, life around 70 was good. It was only as I passed 80 that bits of me really started going irreparably wrong.
    In Simone de Buevoir's autobiography she wrote something like

    At 35, I felt essentially the same as I did at 25

    At 45, the same as 35. And at 55, the same as 45.

    It was only at 65 that I felt noticably different to how I was a decade before.

    I'm glad that 85 is the new 65.

    Of course, she smoked like a chimney too.
    You look radically different between 5 and 15, and between 15 and 25. But from 25 to 55 you look about the same. But then you "go over" and you look radically different between 55 and 65. And it's all downhill from there. Between 25 and 55 you just need exercise, skincare, dentistry, a good diet, possibly dye. But from 55 onwards you need plastic surgery to look like the same person, and a lot of it as you continue to age.
  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 279

    rcs1000 said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    They won't leave, because there's an entire legal industry that will use the law (at the taxpayer's expense) to prevent them having to leave. Modern slavery, sudden conversion to Christianity (home country Muslim), realisation of being gay (home country Muslim). Rates of return for visa overstayers are through the floor.
    The Conservative government was, yes, very poor at deporting anyone.

    I don't see any actual evidence to back up this claim around visa overstayers making claims around slavery/religion/sexuality in large numbers.
    The Conservatives were very poor on immigration, as you will have found me saying both at the time and since. However, Conservative Home Secretaries also existed within an ever-growing thicket of laws (May's modern slavery law amongst them) whose increasing use makes operating the immigration system effectively an impossibility. The Tories did fail to grasp the nettle, leave the ECHR, reform the Human Rights Act, repeal the Modern Slavery Act, but would you be a fan of that?

    I feel what you're really trying to say is that deportation/returns figures are what they are because Suella Braverman forgot to ask the Home Office to deport people because she's stooopid. Which is glib nonsense.
    I didn't say anything about Braverman or her intelligence. Why deportations fell so much under the Tories is not completely clear, but part of it appears to be because funding for the Immigration Enforcement Department fell by 11% in real terms between 2015-16 and 2019-20, as the NAO noted, and the obsession with the Rwanda scheme over more successful methods.

    You suggest what happened was caused by a "thicket of laws". However, you haven't shown any evidence that more visa overstayers are making claims along the lines you described.
    My understanding is that deportations have sharply stepped up since Labour took over.
    They have approaching 12000 since end of July.

    Early instant impact of spending a fraction of the exorbitant amount wasted of Rwanda vanity project in to more focus on processing claims.

    They have specialist experienced teams working on oldest claims and newer newly recruited teams working on newer arrivals.

    Working the pipeline at both ends.

    Commonsense in any business very rare when Politicians are involved.

    A very clear example that when Starmer says he has run huge departments that he has and can walk the walk and not just talk.

    A PM with genuine managerial experience. Boring and bland maybe, lacking charisma probably but rolling his sleeves up and getting things done.
    The interminable strikes have stopped too, which must be helping to get things done.
    Of course if your mantra is pragmatic conciliation as opposed to a bone headed refusal to converse with anybody who doesn't 100% agree with you, it can deliver prompt and eye-catching results.

    Happier workers deliver increased productivity.

    Not rocket science to people experienced in running large bodies.

    Clearly something lacking for those whose life experience is Eton, Oxford, intern, straight in to House of Commons.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,897
    edited November 27

    biggles said:

    Eabhal said:

    algarkirk said:

    Good morning. Thanks to the Daily Mail I now know that it is Labour's fault that the EV sales mandates set by the Tories are unachievable.

    There is something distasteful about legislation which fines manufacturers because their customers want, or don't want, to buy particular numbers of a lawful product.
    The trouble is the alternative is some sort of taxation on ICE cars (an effective subsidy for EVs), which most voters would be extremely pissed about. Hence the tax rise on employer NICs rather than income tax, and the incoherent freezing of fuel duty.
    I think the work needs to be done on why people are resistant to move to EVs. Needs a proper survey but speaking for myself:

    1) Nice ones aren’t cheap, especially vs. nearly new normal cars - Gvt can help by subsidising if we want to increase take up.

    2) I am nervous of second hand batteries. More so than of engines. I might need educating.

    3) I am not convinced the recharging infrastructure is in place and don’t want to wait to recharge. Gvt can fix this.

    4) I like powerful cars that go vroom. Gvt cannot fix this.

    Because of number 4 I am unlikely to switch in my lifetime. And I’m only 40.
    I think that's a good list.

    The government cut subsidy too early.

    On the second-hand batteries I would like to see a standard battery test that could be done and could form the basis of an insurance-backed guarantee. I think that would create confidence in second-hand battery electric car sales.

    On the recharging infrastructure this is exactly like home insulation. Governments love to talk about doing it and it never seems to happen in the volume required to make a difference. It's so frustrating because it's so obvious.

    On the vroom, from what I've heard the pickup and acceleration on electric cars can be impressive. Give a good one a test drive and you might surprise yourself and be won over. I've heard from a few people who were sceptical but we're strong converts after direct experience.
    The acceleration on most modern electric cars is devastating.

    This is a function of having a flat torque curve - max torque is available from zero.

    And, to get decent range, regenerative brakes. That is, the motor runs in reverse to put leccy back in the battery. This requires a powerful motor and the ability for the electronics to handle a big current going in/out of the battery.

    This is why a number of electric 4 door saloons are 4 second cars.

    At this point, someone often asks if using a smaller motor would increase range or decrease power usage. The answer is “not really” - electric motors are a fraction of the weight of ICE engines. Making them a bit smaller has next to no effect on overall weight.
    Acceleration is the most effing pointless metric in cars; almost all cars nowadays have an acceleration that is perfectly acceptable for everyday use. Those who obsess about acceleration tend to be rather (ahem) silly.

    (I was saying this before the advent of electric cars, ever since my brother bought one of the first Lotus Elise's.... ;) )
    This is true. A couple of years ago we inherited my mother-in-laws VW Passat. All I knew about Passats before that was the Zoe Williams review that complained about how sluggishly they accelerated. So imagine my surprise when I found that the acceleration was actually much faster than on our previous car, a Skoda Octavia, which I had honestly always enjoyed legitimately flooring it when on a slip road and getting up to speed to join a motorway.

    But for someone who chooses cars on the basis of the vroom potential it will be relevant.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Canadian government expects 4.9 million people to leave voluntarily when their visas expire.

    The UK faces a similar question over the people given visas by Boris Johnson’s government. If they are not renewed then a lot of people will need to leave.

    https://torontosun.com/news/national/feds-expect-4-9-million-with-expiring-visas-to-voluntarily-leave-canada-in-next-year

    Here's a prediction: 95% of them won't leave.
    Actually, I think the vast majority will leave.
    Yes - for comparison, the equivalent figure in the UK is generally around 5% or lower for most non-EEA visa types.

    (The main exception being High Value / Tier 1 visa holders, only 85-ish% of whom are recorded as leaving on time - though most will have had permission to overstay, being in the process of changing to a different visa type or getting Indefinite Leave to Remain)
This discussion has been closed.