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Jenrick remains the favourite to succeed Sunak – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,238
    kyf_100 said:

    I always assumed even the basic cover, "third party, fire and theft" would cover you if, er, your car was set on fire.

    However there is a whole article published yesterday about this not being the case - https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-13714039/Riot-damage-home-car-insurance-pay-out.html

    "For example, major car insurer Admiral will not pay out for damage from rioting, as well as from other violence such as terrorism and war."

    Bit of a shocker, really. But typical of insurance companies to worm their way out of paying for anything.
    Isn't that a thing going way back?

    IIRC the police were reluctant to declare a "riot" in 2011 - and justified it by pointing out that insurance wouldn't pay out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    DougSeal said:

    What time do the riots start tonight?

    Hopefully not until after the 400m final.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    The Mike Flowers Pops was a great 90s band.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,354
    Obvious thing to say but I can't get over the similarities between these people and the casually dressed rsoles that congregate in Russian tv studios to enthusiastically justify what ever horrors are being committed in Ukraine.

    Hanno Hauenstein
    @hahauenstein
    Schlesinger on Channel 12 on rape of Palestinian detainees suspected of terror: “It’s also first of all what they deserve (…) and secondly, maybe it will also serve as a deterrent (…) it’s a very worthy revenge - just a shame we don’t do it in an institutionalised manner.”

    https://x.com/hahauenstein/status/1821175392327069930
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    DougSeal said:

    It has happened at some points in history, Spain in the 30s and the Jim Crow US South spring to mind, but not very recently, and not in this country since the 17th century.
    Turns out there's an attack happening on a church right now because it runs an asylum centre

    https://x.com/JoshHalliday/status/1821247539531673935
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,849
    “100 far right protests”

    lol. What a load of shite
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,238
    Sandpit said:

    Hopefully not until after the 400m final.
    I really think we should organise a PB riot. Bit like the PB panics during COVID. But only if someone promises to help put away the folding chairs afterwards.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730
    edited August 2024
    DougSeal said:

    It has happened at some points in history, Spain in the 30s and the Jim Crow US South spring to mind, but not very recently, and not in this country since the 17th century.
    Charleston, SC, 2015. Not a mob, just one man.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Leon said:

    “100 far right protests”

    lol. What a load of shite

    The night is young. And it’s not much fun if you know the police are aware of it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287
    Sandpit said:

    Hopefully not until after the 400m final.
    I wouldn't expect it to be quite that controversial.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited August 2024
    DougSeal said:

    It has happened at some points in history, Spain in the 30s and the Jim Crow US South spring to mind, but not very recently, and not in this country since the 17th century.
    Er ... 1780? Gordon Riots. Eg

    https://www.layersoflondon.org/map/records/roman-catholic-chapel-destroyed-in-the-gordon-riots (and Bath as well apparently)

    Anti-RCism is not so distant as one might like, of course.

    And, more recently, the Bishop's Palace at Bristol was burnt in the 1831 riots, though that wasn't necessarily a church per se (might have had a consecrated chapel)>
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited August 2024
    Cicero said:

    It really takes a special kind of person to lecture someone who has been a member of the Liberals and Liberal Democrats for over 45 years, and who has been pretty active over much of that time, as a candidate, both Parliamentary and local, as an organiser and as a very regular conference attender about what the membership of the party is and what it is not.

    I know my party and you, sir, do not.
    You don't, you only know the Liberal wing of your party not the Social Democratic wing clearly.

    If Orange Book Liberalism was so popular it would not have got just 8% of the vote in 2015 would it? The only examples of Liberal parties being the main centre right party in western nations are in Australia (where they have effectively always held that position in coalition with the conservative Nationals), Japan, where the LDP has been dominant for decades and arguably the Netherlands which is a much more socially liberal nation by culture than the UK is.

    If the LDs became a centre right party the social democrats who are heirs of those like Jenkins and Williams and Owen who defected from Labour in the 1980s ie those who make up the Democrats part of the LDs would defect en masse back to Labour which under Starmer would be closer to the old SDP than a centre right Orange Book Liberal party would be
  • FF43 said:

    I'm barely imagining churches being attacked by the mob in the same way that mosques are.
    Attacking mosques is disgraceful. The perpetrators should be properly punished

    Even the hate preaching mosques shouldn't be attacked by mobs. They should be shut down by the law. I think that they've started doing that in Germany

    I hope the cops and the CPS go as zealously after the mob that violently assaulted a guy smoking a fag outside a pub in some Northern city, even though the community elders came to apologise later
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    I wonder how the Irish people will feel if Meta and Twitter simply shut down their services in Ireland? I see a surge in VPN usage coming soon.
    The point I have been making...yes a government could instruct national isp's to block say twitter

    The idea that twitter junkies won't go round that ban via vpn's is ridiculous. All it will do is show the government has no power
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Carnyx said:

    Er ... 1780? Gordon Riots. Eg

    https://www.layersoflondon.org/map/records/roman-catholic-chapel-destroyed-in-the-gordon-riots (and Bath as well apparently)

    Anti-RCism is not so distant as one might like, of course.

    And, more recently, the Bishop's Palace at Bristol was burnt in the 1831 riots, though that wasn't necessarily a church per se (might have had a consecrated chapel)>
    True. 18th century would have been more accurate than 17th, but think 1831 is pushing it.
  • So far, so good ; and possibly combination of three or four things.

    Starmer's experience with messaging and rapid processing , and sentencing , after the 2011 riots , seems to have scared them.

    A lot of Russian bot or troll activity could have masked the smaller number of homegrown trouble-makers actually willing to do anything.

    If any of the targets were genuine, the advance police presence or knowledge of anti-racist posters , too, may have put them off.

    And lastly, the good old British weather , has put a helping hand in , by being damp and anticlimactic.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    From where? If they couldn't win Tory voters this time they are unlikely to win many more next time and they have already squeezed Labour tactical votes in their target seats as far as they can go
    We targeted ruthlessly. For instance Farnham and Bordon was not a top target even though it could have been. Supporters were coming from there to other targets like Guildford. If all goes well for the LDs and we don't need to target Guildford the same way as this time we will all be in Farnham and Bordon and if under the same circumstances as the last election it would fall. We nearly took it without working it. Think what we could do if we really went for it.

    That will happen all over the country. I would predict that if the election was run with both the LDs and Tories on the same level of popularity as at the GE, but starting with the current seats we would take another 20 seats. At least 2 more in Surrey for a start.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    HYUFD said:

    You don't, you only know the Liberal wing of your party not the Social Democratic wing clearly.

    If Orange Book Liberalism was so popular it would not have got just 8% of the vote in 2015 would it? The only examples of Liberal parties being the main centre right party in western nations are in Australia (where they have effectively always held that position in coalition with the conservative Nationals), Japan, where the LDP has been dominant for decades and arguably the Netherlands which is a much more socially liberal nation by culture than the UK is.

    If the LDs became a centre right party the social democrats who are heirs of those like Jenkins and Williams and Owen who defected from Labour in the 1980s ie those who make up the Democrats part of the LDs would defect en masse back to Labour which under Starmer would be closer to the old SDP than a centre right Orange Book Liberal party would be
    I think that low for the LDs was half losing faith with voters over tuition fees, and half people feeling that the Cameron Tory Party was a pretty good proxy for Orange Book Liberalism. The latter were to be sorely disappointed once the shackles of coalition were removed.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    algarkirk said:

    If governments, including ours, shut down services that didn't voluntarily comply with national laws, norms and customs about libel, conspiracy, organising crime, abuse, harmful content, racial slurs etc then services would arise, funded by advertisers who would have confidence in them, which did so.

    At the moment Gresham's law applies. Only government intervention can change that.
    Governments don't have the power to do this that they believe they do most will just find ways around it and the government will a) look even more stupid than normal and b) make a lot of people tell them to fuck off in the next election

    In short never going to happen
  • Britain's closing early tonight because guys who like wearing Swastikas are up for targeting some black people. If you're sitting there wondering which side you're on you need to sit back and reflect a little bit.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1821237065863897281
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    edited August 2024
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    If you're a police officer and you're facing disorder this evening, thank you. Go get 'em. We've got your backs.

    --

    Not sure the fighting talk is necessarily helpful, but the sentiment is correct.

    Dan is quicker than most to identify the correct message in these situations, but I am still a little surprised how long it's taken people with influence, across the spectrum, to reach the position I suggested on here almost immediately after Southport, when it became apparent there were going to be protests;

    "Respect the victims, Support the police, Go home"

    In a world that moves so fast, people can be sooo slooow.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited August 2024
    DougSeal said:

    True. 18th century would have been more accurate than 17th, but think 1831 is pushing it.
    Quite, but on reflection add also the 1791 riots in Birmingham. Several dissenting churches went west. As, in another sense, did Priestley (eventually).

    Not sure about Ireland, though - potentially right down to living memory?

    They did burn down churches etc in the USA at that sort of time, too, but IANAE. A riot in Charlestown, Mass., disposed of a RC convent in 1834 on checking, which may or mau not qualify ...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,849
    edited August 2024
    FF43 said:

    Turns out there's an attack happening on a church right now because it runs an asylum centre

    https://x.com/JoshHalliday/status/1821247539531673935
    Absolutely no evidence of an "attack". Stop spreading fake news. Just says "masked youths"

    Could very easily be anti-Semitic antifa
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Awesome PB from Amber Anning in the women’s 400m, to qualify for the final.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570

    Britain's closing early tonight because guys who like wearing Swastikas are up for targeting some black people. If you're sitting there wondering which side you're on you need to sit back and reflect a little bit.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1821237065863897281

    Are we the bad guys?

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Leon said:

    Absolutely no evidence of an "attack". Stop spreading fake news. Just says "masked youths"

    Could very easily be anti-Semitic antifa
    Attacking a church? I think you’re a bit confused there…
  • (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    If you're a police officer and you're facing disorder this evening, thank you. Go get 'em. We've got your backs.

    --

    Not sure the fighting talk is necessarily helpful, but the sentiment is correct.

    Dan is quicker than most to identify the correct message in these situations, but I am still a little surprised how long it's taken people with influence, across the spectrum, to reach the position I suggested on here almost immediately after Southport, when it became apparent there were going to be protests;

    "Respect the victims, Support the police, Go home"

    In a world that moves so fast, people can be sooo slooow.

    Interestingly my wife says there's been quite a mood shift on TikTok with a lot of videos showing Keir Starmer saying that those engaging in violence will regret it . . . being spliced together with stories about how in 2011 the rioters faced heavy sentences when they were prosecuted by ... Keir Starmer.

    Quite an interesting contrast with a lot of the talk going on here.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,849
    DougSeal said:

    Attacking a church? I think you’re a bit confused there…
    "Defending" it, dorkus
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    edited August 2024
    Carnyx said:

    Same if it gets hopelessly contaminated if someone plays noughts and crosses on the control board of the nearest nuke power station. Even more so if it is evaporated in the ground burst of a 1-MT warhead.

    What's the point of premiums?
    Quite.

    I once got an email from a specialist provider offering me a ridiculously good deal on watch insurance for a specific, old, expensive (but not particularly flashy) timepiece. Bit their hand off as it was 1/4 of what I was paying previously.

    On closer inspection, the insurance didn't cover me if I left the house with it, or even if it was lying around the house but not in the safe...

    I know, I know, always read the small print. But when you insure something for, say "third party, fire and theft" you assume that fire is covered, whatever that fire is caused by. It's not like most car fires start spontaneously, so presumably insurance that doesn't pay out on fires caused by malicious actors isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Edit: And yet we are forced by law to purchase it.
  • Interestingly my wife says there's been quite a mood shift on TikTok with a lot of videos showing Keir Starmer saying that those engaging in violence will regret it . . . being spliced together with stories about how in 2011 the rioters faced heavy sentences when they were prosecuted by ... Keir Starmer.

    Quite an interesting contrast with a lot of the talk going on here.
    Quite. Earlier a posted a link of Starmer being accused of racism because of how quick his response to the 2011 was.

    He seems to be making some impact with his particular experience and type of approach.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Leon said:

    Absolutely no evidence of an "attack". Stop spreading fake news. Just says "masked youths"

    Could very easily be anti-Semitic antifa
    Since when have you been a sane voice of reason, quelling dramatic voices? ;)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Attacking mosques is disgraceful. The perpetrators should be properly punished

    Even the hate preaching mosques shouldn't be attacked by mobs. They should be shut down by the law. I think that they've started doing that in Germany

    I hope the cops and the CPS go as zealously after the mob that violently assaulted a guy smoking a fag outside a pub in some Northern city, even though the community elders came to apologise later
    Fat chance of that
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,849
    Me, this morning


    Leon Posts: 51,722
    9:58AM
    I’ve got a suspicion these planned “30 attacks” on lawyers etc won’t actually materialise and we will see basically nothing. Maybe a few kids. Its probably the coppers (understandably) jumping at ghosts and bots on Telegram, who are deliberately trying to spook them

    Indeed I think the riots, for now, are largely done

    Pray that I’m right!
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 982
    DougSeal said:

    The night is young. And it’s not much fun if you know the police are aware of it.
    This might of stopped it

    https://x.com/novaramedia/status/1821255311216537805
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,337
    ...

    Interestingly my wife says there's been quite a mood shift on TikTok with a lot of videos showing Keir Starmer saying that those engaging in violence will regret it . . . being spliced together with stories about how in 2011 the rioters faced heavy sentences when they were prosecuted by ... Keir Starmer.

    Quite an interesting contrast with a lot of the talk going on here.
    So all this violent chaotic failure, what's the common denominator? Starmer.

    Although last time around he didn't get done over by the World's most influential Businessman.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    Incoming oppo on Walz

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/08/07/harris-vp-pick-walzs-long-history-with-china-may-prove-awkward/

    “Walz got married on the fifth anniversary of the deadly 1989 Tiananmen Square military crackdown, with his wife Gwen telling a local newspaper “he wanted to have a date he’ll always remember.””
  • I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'

    That advice has nothing to do with the riots and is due to the threat of terrorism.

    That warning was there months ago: https://web.archive.org/web/20240515071009/https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/united-kingdom

    A high degree of caution has been recommended for years in fact, it seems the high degree of caution was added in 2017 (when there was a spate of terrorist attacks) and hasn't been removed since except for Covid19: https://web.archive.org/web/20170615121319/https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/united-kingdom
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    MaxPB said:

    Yeah I think a lot of this is being whipped up by bots on social media and Russian trolls feeding misinformation to the media. I'd be shocked if there was more than a few scuffles tonight and hopefully whatever rioting happens is met with hard responses from the police, head cracking, kettling etc...
    Looks like some variation of this is right. The list as I saw it didn't make sense, I mean what kind of fool will try and riot in Walthamstow. Any fascist turning up there will get their head kicked in, they'd be outnumbered 20:1.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Are we the bad guys?

    Every fcukwitted nutter putting their tuppence worth in, it is pathetic. all governments for last 30 years hav eignored the elephant in the room and now the chickens ar ecoming home to roost. Country i sfecked , too many people , too little infrastructure due to politician's being useless lazy stupid uncaring twats.
    Starmer talking absolute bullshit and pretending to be tough will be lobving being able to further their police state , get more surveillance etc through to suit all teh snowflakes and do gooders.Him and the rest of his champagne socialists are not affected by the state the country is in.
    What is need is good governance but we have no chance of it with the retreads running the show
  • kyf_100 said:

    Quite.

    I once got an email from a specialist provider offering me a ridiculously good deal on watch insurance for a specific, old, expensive (but not particularly flashy) timepiece. Bit their hand off as it was 1/4 of what I was paying previously.

    On closer inspection, the insurance didn't cover me if I left the house with it, or even if it was lying around the house but not in the safe...

    I know, I know, always read the small print. But when you insure something for, say "third party, fire and theft" you assume that fire is covered, whatever that fire is caused by. It's not like most car fires start spontaneously, so presumably insurance that doesn't pay out on fires caused by malicious actors isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Edit: And yet we are forced by law to purchase it.
    I can't tell if you're being serious or not but there is no compulsion by law to have fire insurance on a vehicle.

    If you have your vehicle SORN then no insurance is necessary.

    The insurance is there for in case you hit a third party while using it, not malicious actors burning it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,731
    So, where are all the Tory leadership contenders on the riots?

    Patel and Cleverly have been strongly opposed to the riots, with Patel criticising Farage. Jenrick has been on the more whataboutery wing of the party, saying the police have treated the current protestors more harshly than pro-Gaza protestors. Stride criticised him for that, so we can put him in the same camp as Patel and Cleverly. Badenoch had that interview for the Telegraph early on with a lot of legitimate-questions-ing, but I've not heard from her since. I've not seen anything from Tugendhat.

    Is that a good summary? Any updates? Can anyone fill in the gaps?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    .

    I really think we should organise a PB riot. Bit like the PB panics during COVID. But only if someone promises to help put away the folding chairs afterwards.
    Who's bringing the booze ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited August 2024
    Another near miss for gold for Team GB in the 400m.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Fucks sake, another silver. It's not been our games this year.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,397
    edited August 2024
    kyf_100 said:

    Quite.

    I once got an email from a specialist provider offering me a ridiculously good deal on watch insurance for a specific, old, expensive (but not particularly flashy) timepiece. Bit their hand off as it was 1/4 of what I was paying previously.

    On closer inspection, the insurance didn't cover me if I left the house with it, or even if it was lying around the house but not in the safe...

    I know, I know, always read the small print. But when you insure something for, say "third party, fire and theft" you assume that fire is covered, whatever that fire is caused by. It's not like most car fires start spontaneously, so presumably insurance that doesn't pay out on fires caused by malicious actors isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Edit: And yet we are forced by law to purchase it.
    Legally, you only need third party insurance. And you don't even need that if you're willing to deposit £500k with the government. That's gone.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Surely Tory MP's won't let this fool Jenrick get anywhere near the final two?

    Things continue to look well placed for Kemi, IMO. #TeamKemi
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Nunu5 said:

    This might of stopped it

    https://x.com/novaramedia/status/1821255311216537805
    The plod certainly went out of their way to advertise it. I wonder if there was any method to that? I’ve no idea but they’d be out of their minds to try anything in Walthamstow tonight.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,309
    We should all welcome the fact if there is no/limited trouble tonight. I really hope that is the end of it. If the weekend is quiet then perhaps it is done.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited August 2024
    Oh, and other annoying silver. Hudson-Smith this time in the 400m, but it’s a European record for the Brit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    edited August 2024

    Incoming oppo on Walz

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/08/07/harris-vp-pick-walzs-long-history-with-china-may-prove-awkward/

    “Walz got married on the fifth anniversary of the deadly 1989 Tiananmen Square military crackdown, with his wife Gwen telling a local newspaper “he wanted to have a date he’ll always remember.””

    Nothingburger.

    The guy has a sense of humour; the GOP idea that he's a 'commie' is obvious balls.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,164
    edited August 2024
    Leon said:

    Me, this morning


    Leon Posts: 51,722
    9:58AM
    I’ve got a suspicion these planned “30 attacks” on lawyers etc won’t actually materialise and we will see basically nothing. Maybe a few kids. Its probably the coppers (understandably) jumping at ghosts and bots on Telegram, who are deliberately trying to spook them

    Indeed I think the riots, for now, are largely done

    Pray that I’m right!

    Hmmm - I think they could pop up again at the weekend. The enormous counter-protests that have formed at some of the advertised rioting spots appear to be an effective deterrent this evening.

    The photos from Walthamstow are quite something. And videos of rioters hiding behind the police in Brighton (what were they thinking) are utterly humiliating.

    The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if the police deliberately highlighted the locations for this reason.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Off-topic:

    "Marcus started this year not being able to run more than a few metres in a row. On September 7th he is going to run a marathon.

    4 months ago he decided to push himself to run 1 mile everyday for a month to raise awareness and funds for mental health."

    https://x.com/Thehullboy1/status/1821158034007044275

    It doesn't have to be about the speed; it's about doing what you can. If you do that, you've already beaten most people.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited August 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Nothingburger.
    IT's also being misread. He's a politics lecturer. It's like a military historian getting married on 6 June - no worries forgetting the wedding anniversary.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541
    edited August 2024
    HYUFD said:

    You don't, you only know the Liberal wing of your party not the Social Democratic wing clearly.

    If Orange Book Liberalism was so popular it would not have got just 8% of the vote in 2015 would it? The only examples of Liberal parties being the main centre right party in western nations are in Australia (where they have effectively always held that position in coalition with the conservative Nationals), Japan, where the LDP has been dominant for decades and arguably the Netherlands which is a much more socially liberal nation by culture than the UK is.

    If the LDs became a centre right party the social democrats who are heirs of those like Jenkins and Williams and Owen who defected from Labour in the 1980s ie those who make up the Democrats part of the LDs would defect en masse back to Labour which under Starmer would be closer to the old SDP than a centre right Orange Book Liberal party would be
    Much as I like you @hyufd, you really aren't right on this one and @Cicero is. We do know our party and you don't. There is no conflict within the LDs between Liberals and Social Democrats. Much of the time even we don't know which colleagues are which. I remember having this discussion at a LD party after the election where we were comparing opinions. I couldn't have told you before those discussions if other members were from one wing or the other, because we just don't have those wings even though some of us are clearly liberals and some of us are clearly social democrats.

    Looking at the 2015 election result is daft. We didn't lose because we were Liberals and not Social Democrats. Nobody believes that. We lost because of the coalition and things like Tuition fees. If you asked any voters they couldn't have told you whether we were mainly Liberals or Social Democrats in 2015 and they couldn't now. Only anoraks like us know there is a difference.

    And see my other post re being able to win more seats. Here is a bit of info for you. In Guildford in the build up to the election we knocked on 31,000 doors and sent out regular leaflets. During the election we knocked on 32,000 doors. That is nearly everyone twice. 13 leaflets or letters went out and several hundred posterboards went up during the election, although many of those letters were targeted so not to everyone.

    There are plenty of Tory seats we could have done that in but didn't have the resources to do so. So we targeted ruthlessly. There are now the next batch of seats to go for and resources we can move from the last lot of targets we have won,

    Now that may not happen. The Tories may recover and we may be defending ruthlessly and targeting nowhere. But if it stays the same we will be have many more Tory seats next time as well as some labour ones to go for.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 857
    Nigelb said:

    Nothingburger.

    The guy has a sense of humour; the GOP idea that he's a 'commie' is obvious balls.
    Yeah pretty weak stuff. I sometimes tell people I was born on the same day as the Chernobyl disaster if they ask my birthday.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,609
    DougSeal said:

    What time do the riots start tonight?

    As soon as the insurance company managers have gone home.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,653
    DougSeal said:

    The Mike Flowers Pops was a great 90s band.

    No match for Combustible Edison:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combustible_Edison

    Their 'Carnival of Souls' is still a regular listen of mine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STwDhzqMhDw

    Anyway - fight!... I'll be the one in the chiffon and fabulous shoes.
  • Carnyx said:

    IT's also being misread. He's a politics lecturer. It's like a military historian getting married on 6 June - no worries forgetting the wedding anniversary.
    Same reason I got married on Halloween.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    Nunu5 said:

    This might of stopped it

    https://x.com/novaramedia/status/1821255311216537805
    Interesting how it's become another "free free palestine" mob judging from that video. Not sure how comfortable I'd feel being visibly Jewish walking past that.

    Or even being Jewish and showing up to support my local community and stand against far right nazis, only to find I'd walked into a bunch of "free free Palestine" numpties.

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,508
    Sandpit said:

    Oh, and other annoying silver. Hudson-Smith this time in the 400m, but it’s a European record for the Brit.

    The BBC commentator build up strikes again.
  • My band of the 90s was 2 Unlimited.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,846
    Nigelb said:

    Nothingburger.

    The guy has a sense of humour; the GOP idea that he's a 'commie' is obvious balls.
    Is it humorous? People standing up for freedom got squashed. Could you explain the chucklesome quality?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    Britain's closing early tonight because guys who like wearing Swastikas are up for targeting some black people. If you're sitting there wondering which side you're on you need to sit back and reflect a little bit.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1821237065863897281

    Though it's quite possibly nothing.

    The idiots might just have shot their bolt.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Looks like way more anti-nazi rallies out there than any nazi activity so far.

    Fingers crossed...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Eabhal said:

    Hmmm - I think they could pop up again at the weekend. The enormous counter-protests that have formed at some of the advertised rioting spots appear to be an effective deterrent this evening.

    The photos from Walthamstow are quite something. And videos of rioters hiding behind the police in Brighton (what were they thinking) are utterly humiliating.

    The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if the police deliberately highlighted the locations for this reason.
    I was thinking the same thing myself, or to telegraph (pun intended) to the rioters that they knew exactly where they were going. If you’re going to do something you know is illegal then you’d be mighty dissuaded knowing the police knew what you were going to do it and when.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,572
    Carnyx said:

    IT's also being misread. He's a politics lecturer. It's like a military historian getting married on 6 June - no worries forgetting the wedding anniversary.
    Indeed.

    Who could forget the Battle of Stoney Creek and all the implications that had for the world?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    ohnotnow said:

    No match for Combustible Edison:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combustible_Edison

    Their 'Carnival of Souls' is still a regular listen of mine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STwDhzqMhDw

    Anyway - fight!... I'll be the one in the chiffon and fabulous shoes.
    You’re right! I surrender!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,731
    Stereodog said:

    Yeah pretty weak stuff. I sometimes tell people I was born on the same day as the Chernobyl disaster if they ask my birthday.
    Were you perchance born with any superpowers?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,653

    We should all welcome the fact if there is no/limited trouble tonight. I really hope that is the end of it. If the weekend is quiet then perhaps it is done.

    Supposed to be quite hot and muggy in the SE over the weekend. That might play a part.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Liam Thorp
    @LiamThorpECHO
    ·
    25m
    Absolutely enormous numbers out in Liverpool to defend an asylum charity from the threat of far-right violence
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    ydoethur said:

    Indeed.

    Who could forget the Battle of Stoney Creek and all the implications that had for the world?
    Imagine the effect on the Dieppe Landings, for one thing.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    edited August 2024
    Hilarious scenes by Brighton station. A handful of EDL types turned up hoping to cause mayhem, outnumbered by many hundreds of people politely telling them that they're not welcome in the city. Carnival atmosphere. They got nowhere near their target, and seem to have gone now. One arrest. Very effective policing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,849
    edited August 2024
    How many officers are getting overtime for the "expected 100 Fascist coup attempts" tonight?

    6000?

    The absurd government should just give me £2,000 a minute to make predictions, and I'd still save them millions
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541

    Same reason I got married on Halloween.
    I got married 2 days before my 40th birthday. I was given an ultimatum by my wife-to-be, to get married before I was 40. I cut it a bit fine.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Leon said:

    How many officers are getting overtime for the "expected 100 Fascist coup attempts" tonight?

    6000?

    The absurd government should just give me £2,000 a minute to make predictions, and I'd still save them millions

    Which would then be expended, and more, in riot damage compensation ...
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,926
    edited August 2024
    Sandpit said:

    Oh, and other annoying silver. Hudson-Smith this time in the 400m, but it’s a European record for the Brit.

    Not enough bicarb again.

    My father was prescribed it for lack of go go a couple of years ago and at the time it seemed a bit odd. Maybe not now...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited August 2024

    Hilarious scenes by Brighton station. A handful of EDL types turned up hoping to cause mayhem, outnumbered by many hundreds of people politely telling them that they're not welcome in the city. They got nowhere near their target, and seem to have gone now. One arrest. Very effective policing.

    Heard they were confronted by a phalanx of drag queens at Brighton station.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951
    MaxPB said:

    Fucks sake, another silver. It's not been our games this year.

    This is really really annoying, from a statistical perspective.

    If he’d won gold, GB would have been on identical medals to France: 13G, 16S, 20B.

    But if we win a gold tomorrow and France get a silver there’s still hope.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Leon said:

    How many officers are getting overtime for the "expected 100 Fascist coup attempts" tonight?

    6000?

    The absurd government should just give me £2,000 a minute to make predictions, and I'd still save them millions

    Let's hope there is a Russian code word on Telegram that means 'tomorrow night really lads, not tonight'.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,653
    ydoethur said:

    Indeed.

    Who could forget the Battle of Stoney Creek and all the implications that had for the world?
    Now I'm reminded about the old Absolutely sketch about Stoneybridge council aiming for an Olympic bid :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q00N6N8yDRk

    I'd like to make it clear I in no way, ever, at all, picture this when thinking about the SNP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,849
    Eabhal said:

    Hmmm - I think they could pop up again at the weekend. The enormous counter-protests that have formed at some of the advertised rioting spots appear to be an effective deterrent this evening.

    The photos from Walthamstow are quite something. And videos of rioters hiding behind the police in Brighton (what were they thinking) are utterly humiliating.

    The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if the police deliberately highlighted the locations for this reason.
    No, I'm just 20 IQ points higher than anyone on here and OBVS even higher than anyone in the police or the government

    I gave my reasoning for making that prediction at the time, at Orly Airport, this morning. Riots have a natural life cycle, this riot-sequence was clearly near its natural end, to anyone with a mahoohoohoohoohoosive brain
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,609

    We should all welcome the fact if there is no/limited trouble tonight. I really hope that is the end of it. If the weekend is quiet then perhaps it is done.

    Hopefully, potential rioters have seen some of their fellows convicted and jailed, and decided they don’t want it to happen to them.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 150

    Hilarious scenes by Brighton station. A handful of EDL types turned up hoping to cause mayhem, outnumbered by many hundreds of people politely telling them that they're not welcome in the city. They got nowhere near their target, and seem to have gone now. One arrest. Very effective policing.

    Perhaps a naive question, but why are so many of the anti-racist protesters wearing face coverings? Hoping for a scuffle, or afraid of tear gas and the like?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287
    edited August 2024

    Incoming oppo on Walz

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/08/07/harris-vp-pick-walzs-long-history-with-china-may-prove-awkward/

    “Walz got married on the fifth anniversary of the deadly 1989 Tiananmen Square military crackdown, with his wife Gwen telling a local newspaper “he wanted to have a date he’ll always remember.””

    It's because he was in China at the time. He has a long history of supporting freedom for Hong Kong, Tibet, Taiwan and China itself, the very opposite of a CCP stooge.

    https://x.com/williamnee/status/1820958930731700408?t=uErRuDLs06xABstcOMlu1w&s=19
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,653
    Leon said:

    How many officers are getting overtime for the "expected 100 Fascist coup attempts" tonight?

    6000?

    The absurd government should just give me £2,000 a minute to make predictions, and I'd still save them millions

    Though your predictions of invasions by a) aliens, b) the woke, c) non-pretty ethnics, would probably about make it a net deficit.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,241
    kyf_100 said:

    Quite.

    I once got an email from a specialist provider offering me a ridiculously good deal on watch insurance for a specific, old, expensive (but not particularly flashy) timepiece. Bit their hand off as it was 1/4 of what I was paying previously.

    On closer inspection, the insurance didn't cover me if I left the house with it, or even if it was lying around the house but not in the safe...

    I know, I know, always read the small print. But when you insure something for, say "third party, fire and theft" you assume that fire is covered, whatever that fire is caused by. It's not like most car fires start spontaneously, so presumably insurance that doesn't pay out on fires caused by malicious actors isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Edit: And yet we are forced by law to purchase it.
    The recent story I thought was particularly bad was that the insurers won the legal case against some university regarding damage caused when the army did a controlled explosion of a discovered WW2 bomb. The reasoning was that it was the result of war and so covered by that exclusion cause. Personally I think this is wrong -- those clauses are there AIUI to avoid insurers getting wiped out because suddenly all their policyholders are claiming at once because of the Blitz or some similarly widespread cause of claims. They shouldn't be allowed to stretch them to cover genuinely random one off events like "WW2 bomb turns up in the back garden". I think riots on the scale we're seeing are also something insurers should be forced to shoulder the damage for -- spread the risk among all their policyholders rather than screwing over the unlucky few.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786

    Heard they were confronted by a phalanx of drag queens at Brighton station.
    Wouldn't be surprised. I didn't see the drag queens, but I did see an impromptu band playing jolly songs to welcome them.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited August 2024
    Oh ffs ! Can’t just one USA sprinter have an off day !
  • ohnotnow said:

    Though your predictions of invasions by a) aliens, b) the woke, c) non-pretty ethnics, would probably about make it a net deficit.
    Non-pretty ethnics??

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbaGry1F_VU
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Leon said:

    No, I'm just 20 IQ points higher than anyone on here and OBVS even higher than anyone in the police or the government

    I gave my reasoning for making that prediction at the time, at Orly Airport, this morning. Riots have a natural life cycle, this riot-sequence was clearly near its natural end, to anyone with a mahoohoohoohoohoosive brain
    How do you think it works in government? They sit there and conclude, like you, that there's likely going to be piss all tonight from the nazi farts and then take that risk by standing down all the special riot squaddies ?

    No way they do that.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786

    Perhaps a naive question, but why are so many of the anti-racist protesters wearing face coverings? Hoping for a scuffle, or afraid of tear gas and the like?
    Covid fears still lingering in Brighton. :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Leon said:

    How many officers are getting overtime for the "expected 100 Fascist coup attempts" tonight?

    6000?

    The absurd government should just give me £2,000 a minute to make predictions, and I'd still save them millions

    They've heard of you and don't want to risk the Leondamus effect.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,849
    edited August 2024
    ohnotnow said:

    Though your predictions of invasions by a) aliens, b) the woke, c) non-pretty ethnics, would probably about make it a net deficit.
    I made a pretty bold prediction this morning, standing in the Vueling Q for Heathrow at Orly. I simply extracted the information available, crunched it like GPTeightyfuckingbillion, then extrapolated the outcome, with my insane knowkedge of sociopsychology, and realised: the riots are over. They are done. Doesn't even need rain

    I AM GENIUS
  • I am not the least surprised at the non turnout of the anti immigrant protestors tonight, following the saturation coverage of the police preparations and indeed I found it hard to understand why during mid week

    The country needs to wait and see what happens this weekend before breathing a sigh of relief

    However, if we are entering calmer waters it should be recognised that there are real issues over immigration and frank discussions are needed by all politicians on the best way to deal with the issues and heal the terrible divisions
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,849

    Perhaps a naive question, but why are so many of the anti-racist protesters wearing face coverings? Hoping for a scuffle, or afraid of tear gas and the like?
    Hoping for a scuffle. A fair number will be extremely unpleasant antifa antiSemites, as we have seen earlier
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Oh dear, what a shame.

    Wow. As they say, big if true. But it does appear as though Yevgeny Poddubny, one of the most prominent of Russia’s war propagandists, has been killed in a Ukrainian FPV drone strike. He was present in all of the Kremlin’s wars of the past decade+, including the Donbas in 2014.
    https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1821260779376799758
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,164

    Perhaps a naive question, but why are so many of the anti-racist protesters wearing face coverings? Hoping for a scuffle, or afraid of tear gas and the like?
    No ULEZ in Brighton
This discussion has been closed.