Tldr: Matt Goodwin has shot himself in the kneecaps. He has left his professorship for full-time Substacking and is no longer a prof nor an academic.
We did this down thread, Goodwin tweeted to say this isn't true.
Also even if he has, he claims he has 1000s of paid subs to his substack (and I can believe it, substack is quietly wildly successful for a lot of people), that will be £50k+/month easily. Would you teach a load of shitty undergrads at a middle tier uni when you can make £600k a year writing a few articles. I bet he makes another 6 figures a year from media appearances.
No normal journalist is making that. Owen Jones is like the left wing version, he makes way more money now than he ever did writing for the Guardian.
Substack is like the OnlyFans for nerds. It is well known there are people making millions writing their little blogs on there.
He says he's still a honorary Professor...which just confirms that he's left. He says a big thing is a coming next month. I reckon he's got a GBNews slot, or maybe joining Reform.
Any guesses?
The substack / media stuff makes money but it isn't going to be very fulfilling, it is a peripheral role that just isn't very serious. The most obvious career move would be advisor to Reform, either leads to a political career, or you can return to a professorship afterwards - but who knows what universities will be like in the future.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
I'd wait. If the co-ordination & strategic leadership is there, melting away for a bit is part of what you do, in fact its essential to push the pedal, come off it and change tactics. Im not sure those qualities or indeed a willingness to push more serious concentrated violence are in place but we arent going to find out in a week, you measure this thing in months.
I am far from convinced the far right is that well organised or that large in number*. I have heard security experts talk in the recent past of being in the low 100s of people who pose serious terrorist threat. We have had a number of previous attempts with the anti-Palestine protests etc and they never garner many people. I think it is more they caught the zeitgeist of pissed off people about recent events, lots of useful idiots and scallies, but the general public melts away pretty quickly when protests get violent.
* I am talking about hardcore people who want a violent race war, not people who are rather racist / ignorant.
Almost nobody voted for far-right parties at the general election for the simple reason that no such parties put up candidates, which leads me to believe the far-right is extremely small in numbers. Of course we used to get a fair number of BNP and NF candidates a while back.
Looks like huge numbers of police and anti-fascist protestors turned up today/tonight, but hardly any far-right protestors showed up. Maybe the whole thing was fake on their part.
Mostly the Far Right (and Far Left) are nowhere near as popular as they think they are. They spend too much time in their echo chambers and believe that they speak for far more people than they do.
'Look, we're populists, that means popular, right?'
Harris to protesters repeatedly heckling at Michigan rally (about Gaza war):
“Everyone’s voice matters. But I am speaking now…
“You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”
There is a long time until the election.
It is. Does Trump still have the stamina for such a campaign ?
What I would say is that is existential for him because of all the court cases. Also, their campaign may work better if Trump is the underdog/insurgent, or it is seen as a very tight race.
Another factor is that Harris is in a bit of a honeymoon phase, this will burn itself out. If the democrats believe they are winning then discipline/messaging problems will set in, particularly if they are trying to move to the centre against the desires of their supporters.
Harris to protesters repeatedly heckling at Michigan rally (about Gaza war):
“Everyone’s voice matters. But I am speaking now…
“You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”
There is a long time until the election.
It is. Does Trump still have the stamina for such a campaign ?
What I would say is that is existential for him because of all the court cases. Also, their campaign may work better if Trump is the underdog/insurgent, or it is seen as a very tight race.
Another factor is that Harris is in a bit of a honeymoon phase, this will burn itself out. If the democrats believe they are winning then discipline/messaging problems will set in, particularly if they are trying to move to the centre against the desires of their supporters.
I reckon Trump can win if enough undecideds/swing voters in swing states think the economy was doing better under Trump, and are willing to ignore to ignore his unsuitability for office. Trump himself probably spends as much time reminding them of the latter as he does boasting of the former, so it's going to be close!
Trump at 2.14 is a buy I think, if only to make sure I don't lose my shirt again. Long way to go before November.
Reckon he's got further to fall before it becomes a trading bet
Yes, he is looking old and tired. He has further to fall.
Just looking old and tired is a big improvement from how he was being described by supporters of Biden mere months ago. Then he was dangerously senile and fairly near death. If he keeps getting younger at this rate he'll be 30 come election time.
Not much sign of these 100 riots thus far. A few hundred counters in Hackney with nowt to counter.
Well, it's not very popular but cricket fans in this country don't generally go in for rioting.
How many people do you need for a riot ? Do enough people turn up to a Hundred match for one ?
12 is riot. 3 is violent disorder. We have a lot of law in place about this, and a lot of people will be surprised. It's not wise even to stay present in such a situation.
From the CPS website:
The Public Order Act 1986: Riot (section 1) differs from Violent Disorder (section 2) in the following respects:
The minimum number involved (twelve in riot, three in violent disorder); In riot the twelve or more persons must act for a “common purpose.” This is not necessary for violent disorder. Riot requires that the defendant uses actual violence either themselves or through aiding and abetting others in the group of twelve or more to use violence. For violent disorder the defendant may be guilty through using threats of violence alone (either personally or by aiding and abetting the other two present.)
Trump at 2.14 is a buy I think, if only to make sure I don't lose my shirt again. Long way to go before November.
Reckon he's got further to fall before it becomes a trading bet
Yes, he is looking old and tired. He has further to fall.
Just looking old and tired is a big improvement from how he was being described by supporters of Biden mere months ago. Then he was dangerously senile and fairly near death. If he keeps getting younger at this rate he'll be 30 come election time.
So even Trump supporters are now admitting he looks old and tired.
tbf months ago the main argument was which of Biden and Trump was the more senile, I think there was general agreement that Biden looked older.
Looks like huge numbers of police and anti-fascist protestors turned up today/tonight, but hardly any far-right protestors showed up. Maybe the whole thing was fake on their part.
Mostly the Far Right (and Far Left) are nowhere near as popular as they think they are. They spend too much time in their echo chambers and believe that they speak for far more people than they do.
Centrists are guilty of that too I think - all political partisans are.
In fact, it's a hallmark of such people, like having an exaggerated belief in their own competence in government.
Harris to protesters repeatedly heckling at Michigan rally (about Gaza war):
“Everyone’s voice matters. But I am speaking now…
“You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”
There is a long time until the election.
It is. Does Trump still have the stamina for such a campaign ?
What I would say is that is existential for him because of all the court cases. Also, their campaign may work better if Trump is the underdog/insurgent, or it is seen as a very tight race.
Another factor is that Harris is in a bit of a honeymoon phase, this will burn itself out. If the democrats believe they are winning then discipline/messaging problems will set in, particularly if they are trying to move to the centre against the desires of their supporters.
Another other factor is how much is it worth to Trump when/if RFK Jr endorses him.
Trump at 2.14 is a buy I think, if only to make sure I don't lose my shirt again. Long way to go before November.
Reckon he's got further to fall before it becomes a trading bet
Yes, he is looking old and tired. He has further to fall.
Just looking old and tired is a big improvement from how he was being described by supporters of Biden mere months ago. Then he was dangerously senile and fairly near death. If he keeps getting younger at this rate he'll be 30 come election time.
So even Trump supporters are now admitting he looks old and tired.
tbf months ago the main argument was which of Biden and Trump was the more senile, I think there was general agreement that Biden looked older.
Biden has dropped out btw.
Trump is now unarguably the most brain-addled candidate on offer this November. His latest nonsense is that Biden was the subject of a coup by Harris, Croooked Joe is going to come back for his job at the Convention, so he can have another debate with Trump.
Tldr: Matt Goodwin has shot himself in the kneecaps. He has left his professorship for full-time Substacking and is no longer a prof nor an academic.
We did this down thread, Goodwin tweeted to say this isn't true.
Also even if he has, he claims he has 1000s of paid subs to his substack (and I can believe it, substack is quietly wildly successful for a lot of people), that will be £50k+/month easily. Would you teach a load of shitty undergrads at a middle tier uni when you can make £600k a year writing a few articles. I bet he makes another 6 figures a year from media appearances.
No normal journalist is making that. Owen Jones is like the left wing version, he makes way more money now than he ever did writing for the Guardian.
Substack is like the OnlyFans for nerds. It is well known there are people making millions writing their little blogs on there.
He says he's still a honorary Professor...which just confirms that he's left. He says a big thing is a coming next month. I reckon he's got a GBNews slot, or maybe joining Reform.
Any guesses?
The substack / media stuff makes money but it isn't going to be very fulfilling, it is a peripheral role that just isn't very serious. The most obvious career move would be advisor to Reform, either leads to a political career, or you can return to a professorship afterwards - but who knows what universities will be like in the future.
Substack has much value - it is like a pay-for-entry blog.
Joshua Rozenburg the legal commentator uses it, for example. But it's an island, afaics, and cannot be the central attraction.
There are communities of successful Youtubers springing up elsewhere, since YT is such an Aunt Fanny with much censorship (say a swear word and a vid could be demonetized), open to abuse by false copyright claims etc.
People move out to Patreon (who take 20% iirc), Substack, but still mainly have a YT channel for the engagement and the audience base.
You can get support from the paying 1%, but you can't engage new payers without a wider offering. And it needs a base with public profile, such as eg Lee Anderson has in Parliament and GBN.
I think Goodwin is missing that one. He may need to sell his soul to the Spectator or similar, if he can write - but I don't think the Speccie has much over Substack in these terms.
One person whom I support - Dave Walker the Cartoonist - has just shifted his voluntary-paid-for support / ideas group from Facebook to Substack. The loss of engagement will I think hit him, but he did not ask.
Trump at 2.14 is a buy I think, if only to make sure I don't lose my shirt again. Long way to go before November.
Reckon he's got further to fall before it becomes a trading bet
Yes, he is looking old and tired. He has further to fall.
Just looking old and tired is a big improvement from how he was being described by supporters of Biden mere months ago. Then he was dangerously senile and fairly near death. If he keeps getting younger at this rate he'll be 30 come election time.
So even Trump supporters are now admitting he looks old and tired.
tbf months ago the main argument was which of Biden and Trump was the more senile, I think there was general agreement that Biden looked older.
Biden has dropped out btw.
Trump is now unarguably the most brain-addled candidate on offer this November. His latest nonsense is that Biden was the subject of a coup by Harris, Croooked Joe is going to come back for his job at the Convention, so he can have another debate with Trump.
"Weird" is too kind.
RFK Jr is a strong contender, not to be underestimated!
Mr. Fishing, I think the tendency to overestimate how many people agree with a political view one happens to hold oneself is due to the nature of man placing himself at the centre of things as a matter of course. Someone too left or right wing is significantly more left or right than our own view. It's like a caveman making a map. The cave will always be at the centre. And it's why countries traditionally have themselves at the centre of map.
Also, because we hold a view, we tend to think it's sensible and/or logical, and that therefore 'obviously' people agree. Online social media can become silos or echo chambers which just reinforces this.
Harris to protesters repeatedly heckling at Michigan rally (about Gaza war):
“Everyone’s voice matters. But I am speaking now…
“You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”
There is a long time until the election.
It is. Does Trump still have the stamina for such a campaign ?
What I would say is that is existential for him because of all the court cases. Also, their campaign may work better if Trump is the underdog/insurgent, or it is seen as a very tight race.
Another factor is that Harris is in a bit of a honeymoon phase, this will burn itself out. If the democrats believe they are winning then discipline/messaging problems will set in, particularly if they are trying to move to the centre against the desires of their supporters.
That's called hopecasting. There's absolutely no evidence for it.
It's equally possible that their momentum continues to grow.
Harris to protesters repeatedly heckling at Michigan rally (about Gaza war):
“Everyone’s voice matters. But I am speaking now…
“You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”
There is a long time until the election.
It is. Does Trump still have the stamina for such a campaign ?
What I would say is that is existential for him because of all the court cases. Also, their campaign may work better if Trump is the underdog/insurgent, or it is seen as a very tight race.
Another factor is that Harris is in a bit of a honeymoon phase, this will burn itself out. If the democrats believe they are winning then discipline/messaging problems will set in, particularly if they are trying to move to the centre against the desires of their supporters.
Another other factor is how much is it worth to Trump when/if RFK Jr endorses him.
Whoever wins, I am not seeing any talent in that group that will enable it to win the next GE. Also, the populist right is married to the riots and that will stain the political project even more beyond the damage already done when they were in government. The riots were a sudden release of frustration as impotent anger of being shut out of government, but it will stick to the right for years and yeas to come and they know it. Look at a guy like Allister Heath at the Telegraph. One of the main guys stirring shit on the right for years on end: "British apocalypse," "1000 hours to save britain," "betrayal of britain," "Labour's sinister plan." He is now back peddaling like crazy, disowning the rioters who have been his bread and butter. Express likewise... in the long run these riots are part of the demise of the populist right. In even a week or two there is going to be a huge moral hangover, where people reflect on where such politcal methods of violence and fear to obtain political objectives will take this country.
OT just in case there are any fiction writers in the site, Ukraine is invading a specific part of Russia and nobody can work out what their objective is but it's the site of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly. What do they want with the Anomaly?
Whoever wins, I am not seeing any talent in that group that will enable it to win the next GE. Also, the populist right is married to the riots and that will stain the political project even more beyond the damage already done when they were in government. The riots were a sudden release of frustration as impotent anger of being shut out of government, but it will stick to the right for years and yeas to come and they know it. Look at a guy like Allister Heath at the Telegraph. One of the main guys stirring shit on the right for years on end: "British apocalypse," "1000 hours to save britain," "betrayal of britain," "Labour's sinister plan." He is now back peddaling like crazy, disowning the rioters who have been his bread and butter. Express likewise... in the long run these riots are part of the demise of the populist right. In even a week or two there is going to be a huge moral hangover, where people reflect on where such politcal methods of violence and fear to obtain political objectives will take this country.
I dont think the people rioting were the local constituency conservative party.
Harris to protesters repeatedly heckling at Michigan rally (about Gaza war):
“Everyone’s voice matters. But I am speaking now…
“You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”
There is a long time until the election.
It is. Does Trump still have the stamina for such a campaign ?
What I would say is that is existential for him because of all the court cases. Also, their campaign may work better if Trump is the underdog/insurgent, or it is seen as a very tight race.
Another factor is that Harris is in a bit of a honeymoon phase, this will burn itself out. If the democrats believe they are winning then discipline/messaging problems will set in, particularly if they are trying to move to the centre against the desires of their supporters.
That's called hopecasting. There's absolutely no evidence for it.
It's equally possible that their momentum continues to grow.
Kamala now 1.98, with Trump 2.16 on BFX
Crossover well and truly.
It's going to be close, but if Kamala wins it may be possible to believe in America again.
Harris to protesters repeatedly heckling at Michigan rally (about Gaza war):
“Everyone’s voice matters. But I am speaking now…
“You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”
There is a long time until the election.
It is. Does Trump still have the stamina for such a campaign ?
What I would say is that is existential for him because of all the court cases. Also, their campaign may work better if Trump is the underdog/insurgent, or it is seen as a very tight race.
Another factor is that Harris is in a bit of a honeymoon phase, this will burn itself out. If the democrats believe they are winning then discipline/messaging problems will set in, particularly if they are trying to move to the centre against the desires of their supporters.
That's called hopecasting. There's absolutely no evidence for it.
It's equally possible that their momentum continues to grow.
I think we have evidence for Court Cases having some effect on sane Republicans and Independents.
OTOH we have some prominent Republicans who have previously not been comfortable with Trump change their spots, as the party is basically now part of Trump Family Inc.
I am going to make a prediction: Trump will drop out if Harris keeps making these gains. He is going to say he can't win in a rigged system to avoid owning a loss. This can sens the trump supporters into some crazy behaviour.
Looking at the Olympics medal table why is it that India - which has the largest population in the world - has only 3 bronze medals ?
Surely they should be doing better than this ?
They don't fund Olympic sports.
Look where they are in cricket.
And yet they still have a massive population which is bound tg have some talent in it. Even if you took the wealthiest 5% of Indians thats still a well heeled cohort the size of the UK.
Trump at 2.14 is a buy I think, if only to make sure I don't lose my shirt again. Long way to go before November.
Reckon he's got further to fall before it becomes a trading bet
Yes, he is looking old and tired. He has further to fall.
Just looking old and tired is a big improvement from how he was being described by supporters of Biden mere months ago. Then he was dangerously senile and fairly near death. If he keeps getting younger at this rate he'll be 30 come election time.
So even Trump supporters are now admitting he looks old and tired.
tbf months ago the main argument was which of Biden and Trump was the more senile, I think there was general agreement that Biden looked older.
Biden has dropped out btw.
Trump is now unarguably the most brain-addled candidate on offer this November. His latest nonsense is that Biden was the subject of a coup by Harris, Croooked Joe is going to come back for his job at the Convention, so he can have another debate with Trump.
"Weird" is too kind.
RFK Jr is a strong contender, not to be underestimated!
He has a note from his mum explaining a worm ate part of his brain.
Trump on the other hand has no such excuse. Maybe Hannibal Lecter ate part of his?
Whoever wins, I am not seeing any talent in that group that will enable it to win the next GE. Also, the populist right is married to the riots and that will stain the political project even more beyond the damage already done when they were in government. The riots were a sudden release of frustration as impotent anger of being shut out of government, but it will stick to the right for years and yeas to come and they know it. Look at a guy like Allister Heath at the Telegraph. One of the main guys stirring shit on the right for years on end: "British apocalypse," "1000 hours to save britain," "betrayal of britain," "Labour's sinister plan." He is now back peddaling like crazy, disowning the rioters who have been his bread and butter. Express likewise... in the long run these riots are part of the demise of the populist right. In even a week or two there is going to be a huge moral hangover, where people reflect on where such politcal methods of violence and fear to obtain political objectives will take this country.
I dont think the people rioting were the local constituency conservative party.
No, but it sticks to those politicians who court hooliganism with apocalyptic discourse... that hard right of the conservatives and reform...
Looking at the Olympics medal table why is it that India - which has the largest population in the world - has only 3 bronze medals ?
Surely they should be doing better than this ?
They don't fund Olympic sports.
Look where they are in cricket.
And yet they still have a massive population which is bound tg have some talent in it. Even if you took the wealthiest 5% of Indians thats still a well heeled cohort the size of the UK.
Lots of Olympic sports aren't really practised in India. Eg the internet claims only 0.5% of Indians know how to swim.
Kier Starmer cynically plays the long game... he could put troops on the street, but then the right will call him a dictator. He can also let the populist right destroy its own credibility in politics by showing the world what they do to local communities ...showing the world what methods it supports. In a year the populists will still be married to this and there will be an endless source of criticism to direct at braverman and farage going into 2029... as with brexit the populists are not playing the game strategically... Starmer is. A quick gratification of primal violent urges and you have burnt the legitimacy of your political project to the ground. No game plan going forward... just instinct and reflect and short termism... that is what did away with brexit too.
Trump's play will be to mire this is the state houses, some of which have now been populated with Trumpites...and then push in onto the Trumpreme Court to certify him...
I wouldn't bet on this market...money could be stuck as the US sinks into a full on constitutional crisis and possible civil war...
Comments
Does Trump still have the stamina for such a campaign ?
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1821338769271779799
Another factor is that Harris is in a bit of a honeymoon phase, this will burn itself out. If the democrats believe they are winning then discipline/messaging problems will set in, particularly if they are trying to move to the centre against the desires of their supporters.
Taylor Swift Vienna concerts cancelled after attack threat
Who’d have thought that Taylor Swift would be targeted by terrorists?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/07/thames-water-goes-into-special-measures-licence-breach/
From the CPS website:
The Public Order Act 1986:
Riot (section 1) differs from Violent Disorder (section 2) in the following respects:
The minimum number involved (twelve in riot, three in violent disorder);
In riot the twelve or more persons must act for a “common purpose.” This is not necessary for violent disorder.
Riot requires that the defendant uses actual violence either themselves or through aiding and abetting others in the group of twelve or more to use violence. For violent disorder the defendant may be guilty through using threats of violence alone (either personally or by aiding and abetting the other two present.)
https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/public-order-offences-incorporating-charging-standard
tbf months ago the main argument was which of Biden and Trump was the more senile, I think there was general agreement that Biden looked older.
Biden has dropped out btw.
In fact, it's a hallmark of such people, like having an exaggerated belief in their own competence in government.
https://x.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1821287049837867109
but now this is trending
#TheTragicRoundabout
"Weird" is too kind.
Joshua Rozenburg the legal commentator uses it, for example. But it's an island, afaics, and cannot be the central attraction.
There are communities of successful Youtubers springing up elsewhere, since YT is such an Aunt Fanny with much censorship (say a swear word and a vid could be demonetized), open to abuse by false copyright claims etc.
People move out to Patreon (who take 20% iirc), Substack, but still mainly have a YT channel for the engagement and the audience base.
You can get support from the paying 1%, but you can't engage new payers without a wider offering. And it needs a base with public profile, such as eg Lee Anderson has in Parliament and GBN.
I think Goodwin is missing that one. He may need to sell his soul to the Spectator or similar, if he can write - but I don't think the Speccie has much over Substack in these terms.
One person whom I support - Dave Walker the Cartoonist - has just shifted his voluntary-paid-for support / ideas group from Facebook to Substack. The loss of engagement will I think hit him, but he did not ask.
Surely they should be doing better than this ?
Mr. Fishing, I think the tendency to overestimate how many people agree with a political view one happens to hold oneself is due to the nature of man placing himself at the centre of things as a matter of course. Someone too left or right wing is significantly more left or right than our own view. It's like a caveman making a map. The cave will always be at the centre. And it's why countries traditionally have themselves at the centre of map.
Also, because we hold a view, we tend to think it's sensible and/or logical, and that therefore 'obviously' people agree. Online social media can become silos or echo chambers which just reinforces this.
It seems Harris is unstoppable and Trump is heading for a heavy defeat
At least the west can breath easier as the Trump years fade into history
There's absolutely no evidence for it.
It's equally possible that their momentum continues to grow.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2024-07-24b.661.2&s="thames+water"+2024-07-08..2024-08-08#g661.5
Approx zero.
Hed be safer getting LDs Hugh Grant and Colin Firth in their speedos and wrestling in the Thames. It would at least raise visibility.
Look where they are in cricket.
NEW THREAD
Crossover well and truly.
It's going to be close, but if Kamala wins it may be possible to believe in America again.
OTOH we have some prominent Republicans who have previously not been comfortable with Trump change their spots, as the party is basically now part of Trump Family Inc.
Trump on the other hand has no such excuse. Maybe Hannibal Lecter ate part of his?
Kier Starmer cynically plays the long game... he could put troops on the street, but then the right will call him a dictator. He can also let the populist right destroy its own credibility in politics by showing the world what they do to local communities ...showing the world what methods it supports. In a year the populists will still be married to this and there will be an endless source of criticism to direct at braverman and farage going into 2029... as with brexit the populists are not playing the game strategically... Starmer is. A quick gratification of primal violent urges and you have burnt the legitimacy of your political project to the ground. No game plan going forward... just instinct and reflect and short termism... that is what did away with brexit too.
I wouldn't bet on this market...money could be stuck as the US sinks into a full on constitutional crisis and possible civil war...