Jenrick turned up for a very quickly arranged Chinese dinner last night. Fluent presentation but the usual hard-right shtick to entice the membership. Hey that worked so well in 1997-2005. I berated him for his open support for Trump (well, what a surprise) to which he replied that the GOP is our "sister party".
No chance of his getting my vote but I fear he'll win. What then after almost 50 years party membership?
Next week it's drinkkies with Mel.
So what happens if the final two are Jenrick and Patel? 😩
You would both be welcome in the LDs. I know that might mean you will burn in hell, but really both of you have views that aren't a million miles away from mine and you both seem to have a cracking sense of humour as well (you will need it).
Apparently the greatest Tory PM ever (well certainly after Thatcher and Dave) defected to the Liberals, so there is precedent.
I draw the line at wearing sandals, that is a red line for me.
I never wear sandals and I don't have a beard. I'm the black sheep of the LDs. Tolerated, but only just.
Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?
So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.
He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks
There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire
Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?
It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy
The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless
I want a BAME Loto, that way I wont have to listen to 5 years of Lefty dross on race and women. Old pasty face Starmer just wont cut it.
A fair point
If its not Jenrick, it should be Badenoch. I quite like Patel but she is obviously not liked by trillions of my fellow Brits, so it's pointless
My fear is that Badenoch is a kind of featherweight ideologue. She's a thinker, she's not a politician. She's brittle and intellectual and a bit globalist. A kind of Davos woman of the right. She's an addition to the party, but leader? No
However she'd be my second choice. if the Tories go for Cleverly or Tugendhat they are admitting defeat in the next election, too, and also risking destruction by Reform
Priti Patel was the architect of Rwanda, or at least her dabs were found on the smoking gun. That is probably a weakness because Rwanda never looked like working but could turn positive if illegal immigration rockets over the next two months. Priti is Boris's man but does that count for much these days? And the Oxbridge snobs in the media won't have this Essex graduate.
Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?
So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.
He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks
There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire
Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?
It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy
The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless
I want a BAME Loto, that way I wont have to listen to 5 years of Lefty dross on race and women. Old pasty face Starmer just wont cut it.
Let's be fair - you'd prefer a half-open pot noodle to Starmer.
Taoiseach Simon Harris says the era of self regulation by social media companies is over
He’s prepared to meet Elon Musk and other social media company execs to discuss Irish government plans for financial sanctions and personal liabilities for failing to remove harmful content
The top article on the Spectator website is European concerns over something similar happening over there. Looks like they will try and get ahead of it.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
Starmer got 34% on a 60% turnout. Sunak struggled home with 24%. As to popularity, he's lost a little but strangely not with 2024 Conservative voters who seem to like him - perhaps not the Devil Incaranate some on here would have us believe.
Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?
So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.
He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks
There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire
Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?
It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy
The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless
If your Camden pad is leasehold, you should not be voting Jenrick. The guy stymied leasehold reform and was on the side of developers who lobbied against any kind of reform. Net result is that leasehold flats have significantly underperformed the rest of the UK housing market - so if you are a leaseholder (which most of us in London are) the guy has literally lost you a ton of money.
Leaving aside all the other stuff about the mural-painting, lockdown-breaking, expenses-grabbing, self-serving little toad, the guy was possibly the worst housing minister we have ever had, and that is up against some stiff competition. Compare and contrast with Gove, who was actually quite good in the role, and is one of the few Tories I still like.
Our eldest son and his wife who live in Vancouver together with their fellow citizens have been warned by the Canadian government not to travel to the UK
Very pleased my wife and my diamond wedding celebrations were in May though our daughter in law is visiting us in October on her way home from an international tourism conference in Portugal
Silly. Most places are totally unaffected by the riots.
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?
So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.
He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks
There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire
Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?
It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy
The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless
I want a BAME Loto, that way I wont have to listen to 5 years of Lefty dross on race and women. Old pasty face Starmer just wont cut it.
Let's be fair - you'd prefer a half-open pot noodle to Starmer.
Well that's hardly news. However setting my personal dislike aside I am surprised at just how inept his government has been. The honeymoon has been remarkably short.
Perhaps he will get a grip and he's just having teething problems or it might be the shitshow that was the Cons masked Labours inadequacies.
Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?
So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.
He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks
There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire
Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?
It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy
The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless
He’s got psychopath’s eyes. A young one while still at the torturing animals stage, but still..
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
IIRC a few weeks before the election I made a joke on here about Labour winning a 200 seat majority with 33% of the vote. The joke nearly came true: 170 majority with 33.7%.
You are often uncannily accurate in your predictions. Chapeau
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
No it didn't - a set of lies posted on social media blaming a Muslim asylum seeker triggered the riots.
Potato, potato.
And that might be the next point of controversy for two tier Keir. The rioters are being sent down while the Swiftie-killer is still on remand. And what of airport head-stamp man, both the copper and the two who attacked the police? It's all on video so why is no-one in court?
This is a very fair question being asked on TwiX. Where are the Manchester police attackers? Have they even been charged?? It's not like there's a lack of evidence
Brisk justice is all very bracing, but again, is it two tier, Sir Kier?
Is Sir Keir now personally administering the policing, arrests, charging and trials of every crime that happens in Britain? If he is then perhaps that's a good thing - as we saw from his electoral triumph the man's capable of super-human accomplishments - but didn't Magna Carta have something to say about that?
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
No it didn't - a set of lies posted on social media blaming a Muslim asylum seeker triggered the riots.
Potato, potato.
And that might be the next point of controversy for two tier Keir. The rioters are being sent down while the Swiftie-killer is still on remand. And what of airport head-stamp man, both the copper and the two who attacked the police? It's all on video so why is no-one in court?
This is a very fair question being asked on TwiX. Where are the Manchester police attackers? Have they even been charged?? It's not like there's a lack of evidence
Brisk justice is all very bracing, but again, is it two tier, Sir Kier?
Is Sir Keir now personally administering the policing, arrests, charging and trials of every crime that happens in Britain? If he is then perhaps that's a good thing - as we saw from his electoral triumph the man's capable of super-human accomplishments - but didn't Magna Carta have something to say about that?
OT The Rest is Entertainment on the complete collapse of the Edinburgh fringe to television route into comedy, and how social media jokes are the route to big paydays on tour for standups. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOtJgWTa3qg&t=994s
Third, like the Tories will be if Jenrick is leader.
I like your optimism.
My hope is that he campaigns in culture wars poetry and leads in centrist prose.
He was a centrist until Brexit/immigration radicalised him.
What you advocate (Blairism with lower taxes) wouldn't get close to 20% of the vote, let alone 30%+.
The Tories won't be coming back into office without a firm offer on solving immigration and cultural relativism/toxic identity politics, and it's a hard age not a soft one, so best get used to it rather than pretend it's still 2005.
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
Yes, let’s go back to the 1960s, where kids were kidnapped from Manchester fairgrounds to be tortured to death and buried on the Moors. Good honest child murder by the right sort (wink wink) of murderer.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
I doubt the Johnson's coalition of pensionable red waller's and the comfortable south can be repeated. Reform have taken the angry vote and its not foreseeably coming back.
I honestly believe Johnsonism has killed the Conservatives. So the Cons can either die with dignity or slowly attrit while their membership does.
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
No it didn't - a set of lies posted on social media blaming a Muslim asylum seeker triggered the riots.
Potato, potato.
And that might be the next point of controversy for two tier Keir. The rioters are being sent down while the Swiftie-killer is still on remand. And what of airport head-stamp man, both the copper and the two who attacked the police? It's all on video so why is no-one in court?
a few (3) rioters who have pleaded guilty have been jailed. most of the rioters are on remand no different to the Swiftie-killer.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
They need a pact with Reform where Reform stand in those Labour seats the Tories have no chance of winning. The Tory purists are aghast but if Churchill could cut a deal with Stalin then hold your nose. They can then Blue wall until there hearts are content.
I think this is the worst of all worlds for the Conservative Party.
A pact allows them to be portrayed as being the same as Reform, while also allowing Reform to grow in importance. The Conservative Party depends on being the only party of the right: they need to destroy Reform.
They are fortunate in this in that Reform is led by Nigel Farage, and Nigel - like Ray Davies - falls out with everyone he works with. And also that Reform has, so far, shown little interest in getting their foot in the door in local government.
The next Conservative leader should tack right, and ensure there is no space for Reform. After Reform has been destroyed they can look to expand the tent.
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
I'm confused as you seem to be saying that the St John's, Cambridge educated lawyer isn't that bright as he doesn't seem to think through the consequences of his ideas..
Although electing him will confirm to many people that the Tory party are the nasty party.
There’s something wrong at St John’s as they also accepted Richard Burgon.
I know. They accepted a friend of mine. Whose academic career consisted in part of throwing waterfilled johnnies at the punters below his room window.
Who hasn't engaged in that joyous pastime? TBH I had completely forgotten about it, and wonder whether the hilarity that it once caused might be worth another go!
I’m going to do it this very afternoon
In fact I think we should all do it, as a protest against the riots (by all sides)
At 5pm sharp every able-bodied PB-er should gather at his/her window and throw water-filled jimmy hats at bemused bypassers, then after a few minutes we should stop, and return to our normal lives, without offering any explanation for our behaviour
Dropping a water-soaked full loaf just behind them so it goes SPLAT! and leaves an unrecognisable mush is much more satisfying, as the try to work out what sort of creature has just plummeted to its death....
Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?
So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.
He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks
There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire
Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?
It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy
The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless
I want a BAME Loto, that way I wont have to listen to 5 years of Lefty dross on race and women. Old pasty face Starmer just wont cut it.
Oh, you will.
They will just say she's the wrong sort of BAME or has sold out BAME people.
Anyway, I'm done with all that. All history now as far as I'm concerned.
Best candidate wins. And that's exactly how it should be.
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
I heard that. It was interesting ("I'm not political, but I am dismayed by Starmer and Cooper's response"). He said what lots of people have said - that the government should take account of the concerns of the public.
But what does he expect exactly? He sounded like a reasonable man, so surely doesn't agree with mobs of thugs trying to unleash a pogrom on muslims and ethnic minorities. So what exactly does he object to about Starmer saying the full force of the law should be brought down on the rioters? Should it not? Should Starmer say "I feel your pain" and endorse them?
Presumably he wants the government to reduce immigration. They have a policy on immigration and asylum, we've just gone through an election where it was there in their manifesto. Current immigration levels are a result of Tory policy. What more does he want? Again, he seemed a reasonable man, so presumably is not in favour of repatriation.
All these conversations take place as if the people at the centre of this - migrants and people with different skin colour or religion - don't exist as people. That we should "take account of concerns" that essentially say to a large group of our own citizens that they are not welcome. I wish the BBC in particular would bring a bit more to the forefront the lives and experiences of the people caught up in the middle of this, particularly refugees stuck in those hotels and reception centres who must find the whole thing pretty frightening.
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
OT The Rest is Entertainment on the complete collapse of the Edinburgh fringe to television route into comedy, and how social media jokes are the route to big paydays on tour for standups. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOtJgWTa3qg&t=994s
Yep just been watching that - as they say you don't need TV to get famous nowadays you can do it on Tiktak / similar but it takes time to build a critical mass of audience.
Once you've done it though as a comedian you are sorted as the audience will go to every tour...
Jenrick turned up for a very quickly arranged Chinese dinner last night. Fluent presentation but the usual hard-right shtick to entice the membership. Hey that worked so well in 1997-2005. I berated him for his open support for Trump (well, what a surprise) to which he replied that the GOP is our "sister party".
No chance of his getting my vote but I fear he'll win. What then after almost 50 years party membership?
Next week it's drinkkies with Mel.
So not only does he support Trump, but he does so for a facile reason. If he is the best the Conservatives can come up with they really might be toast.
More to the point, when you go through the CVs of the new Lib Dem MPs, Lots of ex military, lots of really impressive academic, business, community and local credentials... these are the kinds of MPs who could easily have been conservative. Then you think well, it the Tories go down the Reform/Populist rabbit hole there is an actual conservative party to vote for- moderate decent, pragmatic, hard working, reasonable and sensible. Everything that the Tories used to claim to be.
At this point the Lib Dems only need to take 26 MPs in order to push the Tories into third place or 29 if you took the Tories and Reform together, and yes I know this is a mildly specious argument but under FPTP but there are 72 Lib Dem MPs and only 5 RefUK. However, Truss and now Jenrick saying they support Trump is absolutely lethal, totally lines them up with Farage in the Petin camp and could actually trigger a hard core of the Tories to defect since they completely loathe both Trump and Farage. Local Tories often get on well with local Lib Dems, and we could certainly see emergence of the Lib Dems as the centre right party that many Tories say they are or want to be (but are actually not and definitely would not be as allies of Trump).
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
Because of stuff like THIS
"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"
Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)
Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?
So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.
He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks
There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire
Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?
It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy
The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless
I get that the PB consensus don’t want someone like Jenrick to lead the Tories because of a lot of us centrists would really quite like a Tory Party back that we feel comfortable voting for. But I agree that given the current political situation and the lie of the land, from a strategic perspective in the here and now, the Tories probably do need someone “of the right”.
There’s a lot of shock and horror on here that the Tories would dream to do it, but the party has changed, and the political environment has changed, and the Tories being centrist and incompetent (because they cannot demonstrate competence after the last term of office) isn’t going to do anything but drive more voters to the fringes.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
Spot on. He will royally fuck off LD curious voters through wrecking pensions, shares, VAT on private schools and jacking up high end taxes (so there's 20 to 30 seats to go at there, at least) and really rile the Reform curious with the Woke crusade in education and by an open-door policy in immigration. Meaning many return to the colours and the Tories rake in a further 50-60 seats there too.
Strangely, and I wouldn't usually say this and I'd expect to be called delusional if I did, if the Tories play it right (and that's from automatic) they should easily get 200+ seats and, if Starmer flushes it all down the toilet, they could get to 300+ seats again in one hit too.
They need to have a better team, better plan, and better solutions. And then it's very possible.
Media Prog is fascinating today. Apologies if its been posted already but the person who first posted the lie about the Southport murderer being a Muslim boat person was a Cheshire housewife living in a £1,500,000 house married with three grown up children. The really fascinating part is that this company could trace who it was and they explain how they did it
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
No it didn't - a set of lies posted on social media blaming a Muslim asylum seeker triggered the riots.
Potato, potato.
And that might be the next point of controversy for two tier Keir. The rioters are being sent down while the Swiftie-killer is still on remand. And what of airport head-stamp man, both the copper and the two who attacked the police? It's all on video so why is no-one in court?
This is a very fair question being asked on TwiX. Where are the Manchester police attackers? Have they even been charged?? It's not like there's a lack of evidence
Brisk justice is all very bracing, but again, is it two tier, Sir Kier?
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
Because of stuff like THIS
"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"
Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)
How many times are we going to get this slightly amended version of the exactly same post from you?
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
What's all this tacking to the centre stuff? Mushy compromises and splitting the difference?
Voters want pragmatism and solutions. Real leaders define and shape exactly where that is themselves.
The liberals at large really don't get this (not at all) because they protect core aspects of their theology as sacrosanct and are simply incapable of seeing it in any other way. This happened with free movement and I can see it happening with migration and asylum rights more broadly, and the HRA on top.
That's the opportunity for the Conservatives and to be seen as the new redefined centre ground, if they can get the tone and pitch right.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
Starmer got 34% on a 60% turnout. Sunak struggled home with 24%. As to popularity, he's lost a little but strangely not with 2024 Conservative voters who seem to like him - perhaps not the Devil Incaranate some on here would have us believe.
Only because you want to see an end of the Conservative Party.
Not true.
I would like to see an end of the Farascist adjacent, Brexiteering, Rwanda fanbois fukwits currently running the party in the faint hope that sanity would return
But yes, I want him to win so he will be publicly humiliated
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
Because of stuff like THIS
"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"
Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)
How many times are we going to get this slightly amended version of the exactly same post from you?
Every time Labour does something truly annoying or Woke or inept or rubbish
So, approximately once an hour
This is what it means being in government. You get attacked constantly. I understand that lefties are not used to it
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
I can see what flying pigs would look like.
That doesn't mean they will come to pass.
Another keeper.
I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
What's all this tacking to the centre stuff? Mushy compromises and splitting the difference?
Voters want pragmatism and solutions. Real leaders define and shape exactly where that is themselves.
The liberals at large really don't get this (not at all) because they protect core aspects of their theology as sacrosanct and are simply incapable of seeing it in any other way. This happened with free movement and I can see it happening with migration and asylum rights more broadly, and the HRA on top.
That's the opportunity for the Conservatives and to be seen as the new redefined centre ground, if they can get the tone and pitch right.
Your ideology is than anything presented in a Blue rosette is sacrosanct. That is not exactly pragmatism. Pragmatism left the Tory party a long long time ago.
Ironically, though, in a universe where Sunak had waited until the Autumn, we might have seen it with the current situation as Sunak would almost certainly have attempted to negotiate with the rioters to curry favour with Reform voters. We dodged a bullet there.
Jenrick turned up for a very quickly arranged Chinese dinner last night. Fluent presentation but the usual hard-right shtick to entice the membership. Hey that worked so well in 1997-2005. I berated him for his open support for Trump (well, what a surprise) to which he replied that the GOP is our "sister party".
No chance of his getting my vote but I fear he'll win. What then after almost 50 years party membership?
Next week it's drinkkies with Mel.
So not only does he support Trump, but he does so for a facile reason. If he is the best the Conservatives can come up with they really might be toast.
More to the point, when you go through the CVs of the new Lib Dem MPs, Lots of ex military, lots of really impressive academic, business, community and local credentials... these are the kinds of MPs who could easily have been conservative. Then you think well, it the Tories go down the Reform/Populist rabbit hole there is an actual conservative party to vote for- moderate decent, pragmatic, hard working, reasonable and sensible. Everything that the Tories used to claim to be.
At this point the Lib Dems only need to take 26 MPs in order to push the Tories into third place or 29 if you took the Tories and Reform together, and yes I know this is a mildly specious argument but under FPTP but there are 72 Lib Dem MPs and only 5 RefUK. However, Truss and now Jenrick saying they support Trump is absolutely lethal, totally lines them up with Farage in the Petin camp and could actually trigger a hard core of the Tories to defect since they completely loathe both Trump and Farage. Local Tories often get on well with local Lib Dems, and we could certainly see emergence of the Lib Dems as the centre right party that many Tories say they are or want to be (but are actually not and definitely would not be as allies of Trump).
I mentioned awhile ago that Chris Coghlan would be one to watch if he got elected, which he did. I was in his constituency until boundary changes moved me to Guildford. I voted for him to be the candidate over the candidate who stood last time who is a very capable guy and whom I feel very sorry for now, but Chris Coghlan's CV in almost unbelievable and he comes over in person the same. He is like a younger clone of Paddy Ashdown. What I don't know is can he now perform, now he is there.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
Starmer got 34% on a 60% turnout. Sunak struggled home with 24%. As to popularity, he's lost a little but strangely not with 2024 Conservative voters who seem to like him - perhaps not the Devil Incaranate some on here would have us believe.
Sunak is a really nice bloke.
Yes, smart and likeable. Just not very prime ministerial, sadly
Worst Radio 4 programme: The Moral Maze with Mel & the gang.
In violent agreement. The BBC at its condescending worst in translating morality, events and society for we oiks mode. Guests are either people I’ve always disliked or people I’ve grown to dislike since appearing on MM (though I only hear the trailers nowadays).
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
They need a pact with Reform where Reform stand in those Labour seats the Tories have no chance of winning. The Tory purists are aghast but if Churchill could cut a deal with Stalin then hold your nose. They can then Blue wall until there hearts are content.
I think this is the worst of all worlds for the Conservative Party.
A pact allows them to be portrayed as being the same as Reform, while also allowing Reform to grow in importance. The Conservative Party depends on being the only party of the right: they need to destroy Reform.
They are fortunate in this in that Reform is led by Nigel Farage, and Nigel - like Ray Davies - falls out with everyone he works with. And also that Reform has, so far, shown little interest in getting their foot in the door in local government.
The next Conservative leader should tack right, and ensure there is no space for Reform. After Reform has been destroyed they can look to expand the tent.
A dangerous path to tread. Time and time again we see mainstream parties punished for tacking to the extremes. The thing about extremists is that they are, well, extreme. If the Tories tack to the right, those to the right of them will simply move further right, until, at some point, you get mass defections to Labour or the LDs, or a breakaway moderate Conservative party.
What's great about this ticket is there's the candidate born in 1964 to appeal to young voters and the candidate born in 1964 to appeal to older voters.
BTW, the most Republican birth cohort in America is people born in 1964.
Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?
So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.
He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks
There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire
Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?
It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy
The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless
I get that the PB consensus don’t want someone like Jenrick to lead the Tories because of a lot of us centrists would really quite like a Tory Party back that we feel comfortable voting for. But I agree that given the current political situation and the lie of the land, from a strategic perspective in the here and now, the Tories probably do need someone “of the right”.
There’s a lot of shock and horror on here that the Tories would dream to do it, but the party has changed, and the political environment has changed, and the Tories being centrist and incompetent (because they cannot demonstrate competence after the last term of office) isn’t going to do anything but drive more voters to the fringes.
This isn't aimed at you and your comment has driven me to just underline how much I fucking hate this false centrists versus right dichotomy.
It's so stupidity reductive, and wrong. The Conservatives need to win over floating voters and build an election winning coalition: that will involve both Reform and LD/Labour defectors. They are both required to get back into power.
They are not mutually exclusive and there is no path to power that conveniently ignores one but not the other.
I'd essentially rule out voting for any Conservative leadership candidate who talks in this way.
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
I can see what flying pigs would look like.
That doesn't mean they will come to pass.
Another keeper.
I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.
You'll be the same too.
I assure you, I have a perfect memory.
The Tories could reverse some of this decline in one go. If they have a capable leader.
The idea they could return to power if led by a cheap crook and failure like Jenrick is ludicrous.
Remember, dissatisfaction with Starmer doesn't automatically mean that votes will head to the Tories.
The Palestinians on the West Bank probably feel the same.
Well you don't have to agree with someone entirely on one issue to agree with them on another. I have learned to understand since 7 October why many perfectly reasonable Jews are as implacable as they are. The hate they face is grotesque.
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
Because of stuff like THIS
"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"
Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)
They seem to be totally tone-deaf. Starmer thinks that just because he's put his ming vase on the mantelpiece, with just a little bit of dust on it and a few coughs, he can now turn on the disco he can now do whatever the fuck he likes.
I did, thankyou. And thankyou PB for all the good advice. I have now squirted WD40 into the lock!
I always use graphite (soft pencil will do) on locks as oil tends to gum them up. WD40 is unlikely to do any harm though.
If you are having to pull the key up or push it down to get it to open the mechanism is likely to be worn, so worth replacing before you have to get out the angle grinder. A 5 minute job for most locks.
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
I can see what flying pigs would look like.
That doesn't mean they will come to pass.
Another keeper.
I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.
You'll be the same too.
Yep - given the result in 2019 and the subsequent result in 2024 - it's possible that the same may happen in reverse and the Tories win a majority.
The problem for the Tories though is that they are currently subject to a pincer movement attacked by Labour in urban areas, Reform in the poorest areas and the Lib Dems in the richest areas.
And you can't create a manifesto of ideas that will please all 3 sets of potential voters.
Hence I don't see 2028 being a repeat of 2019 or even 2017 because I don't see them picking off all 3 sets of voters especially if they target reform rather than Labour switchers.
On one thing of high salience right now - the riots - it is a test for the Conservative leader candidates.
Serious opposition politicians will support Keir Starmer in his handling of the riots. Not because they are holding back on their intention to replace him at the earliest opportunity, but because the public expects you to be on the side of the people dealing with the problem - the police, the courts, the government. And also because you would expect to do exactly the same when, as you hope, you will replace Starmer.
Priti Patel alone of the candidates gets this. Jenrick emphatically does not.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
They need a pact with Reform where Reform stand in those Labour seats the Tories have no chance of winning. The Tory purists are aghast but if Churchill could cut a deal with Stalin then hold your nose. They can then Blue wall until there hearts are content.
I think this is the worst of all worlds for the Conservative Party.
A pact allows them to be portrayed as being the same as Reform, while also allowing Reform to grow in importance. The Conservative Party depends on being the only party of the right: they need to destroy Reform.
They are fortunate in this in that Reform is led by Nigel Farage, and Nigel - like Ray Davies - falls out with everyone he works with. And also that Reform has, so far, shown little interest in getting their foot in the door in local government.
The next Conservative leader should tack right, and ensure there is no space for Reform. After Reform has been destroyed they can look to expand the tent.
I disagree
1. a pact might allow those areas which are badly represented to get better representation. FPTP cuts them off at the legs atm. If therer's a realistic hance of representation the forgotten places might get a voice. The Tories cant reach the parts Reform can.
2. A pact is a pact it's up to the two parties to work out an programme. The Tories happily knifed Clegg so let's not pretend they are "honourable". Pacts only stay together if there is something for both sides.
3. Farage is a tremendous shit stirrer and I mean that as a plus. He will do the dirty work Souihern Cons run from and give Labour a hard time. The Tories will have a hard enough time battling the LDs in the South if they are to get back on their feet.
4. As you point out Farage is no spring chicken. Post Nigel there may be a more rounded character who makes a longer term alliance easier. I use the Lab Coop model as an example.
5. The Tories are for the foreseeable future in no shape to destroy Reform. They should forget about it. They should worry about the 2.8 million natural conservatives who sit at home ( Im one ) because the party has no conservatives values or vision. get them back voting and that's a lot of votes. In the mean tinme they have the LDs stealing their southern seats and labour as their opponent. A war on two fronts is bad, opening up a third is not a good idea.
6. I dont think the Conservatives should tack right. They should just try being conservatives again. They need a moderate skill leader who can hold a party together. The so called modernisers became addicted with "elections are won in the centre". This is bollocks. The correct statement is "elections are won in the centre if you keep your party wings on board" You have to bring all the elements with you and simply jumping to the right wont fix their problem. They need a bit of red meat for all their activists and a vision for where they are going to hold it together.
So if they want to be out of power for quite some time do what they are doing. If they want to hold HMG to account and win an election eat some crow and cut a deal. A three front war is a mugs game.
Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?
So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.
He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks
There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire
Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?
It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy
The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless
I want a BAME Loto, that way I wont have to listen to 5 years of Lefty dross on race and women. Old pasty face Starmer just wont cut it.
A fair point
If its not Jenrick, it should be Badenoch. I quite like Patel but she is obviously not liked by trillions of my fellow Brits, so it's pointless
My fear is that Badenoch is a kind of featherweight ideologue. She's a thinker, she's not a politician. She's brittle and intellectual and a bit globalist. A kind of Davos woman of the right. She's an addition to the party, but leader? No
However she'd be my second choice. if the Tories go for Cleverly or Tugendhat they are admitting defeat in the next election, too, and also risking destruction by Reform
Priti Patel was the architect of Rwanda, or at least her dabs were found on the smoking gun. That is probably a weakness because Rwanda never looked like working but could turn positive if illegal immigration rockets over the next two months. Priti is Boris's man but does that count for much these days? And the Oxbridge snobs in the media won't have this Essex graduate.
There have been 3500 boat arrivals in SKS's first month. It has been masked by the fact that we have riots on the streets, but shitcanning Rwanda could look like a very bad idea if it keeps up.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
Starmer got 34% on a 60% turnout. Sunak struggled home with 24%. As to popularity, he's lost a little but strangely not with 2024 Conservative voters who seem to like him - perhaps not the Devil Incaranate some on here would have us believe.
Sunak is a really nice bloke.
Yes, smart and likeable. Just not very prime ministerial, sadly
He was given a hospital pass. He might have been ok under other circumstances.
@krishgm Deputy PM @AngelaRayner criticises Tory leadership candidate @RobertJenrick over the racist riots saying ""People like Robert Jenrick have been stirring up some of the problems that we've seen in our communities ...Actually, what we want to see is communities coming together, and the vast majority of the public want to see that."
I did, thankyou. And thankyou PB for all the good advice. I have now squirted WD40 into the lock!
I always use graphite (soft pencil will do) on locks as oil tends to gum them up. WD40 is unlikely to do any harm though.
If you are having to pull the key up or push it down to get it to open the mechanism is likely to be worn, so worth replacing before you have to get out the angle grinder. A 5 minute job for most locks.
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
I can see what flying pigs would look like.
That doesn't mean they will come to pass.
Another keeper.
I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.
You'll be the same too.
Yep - given the result in 2019 and the subsequent result in 2024 - it's possible that the same may happen in reverse and the Tories win a majority.
The problem for the Tories though is that they are currently subject to a pincer movement attacked by Labour in urban areas, Reform in the poorest areas and the Lib Dems in the richest areas.
And you can't create a manifesto of ideas that will please all 3 sets of potential voters.
Hence I don't see 2028 being a repeat of 2019 or even 2017 because I don't see them picking off all 3 sets of voters especially if they target reform rather than Labour switchers.
Perhaps social media and the resulting polarisation of the country has done for the Tories. We have become a nation of small tents.
On one thing of high salience right now - the riots - it is a test for the Conservative leader candidates.
Serious opposition politicians will support Keir Starmer in his handling of the riots. Not because they are holding back on their intention to replace him at the earliest opportunity, but because the public expects you to be on the side of the people dealing with the problem - the police, the courts, the government. And also because you would expect to do exactly the same when, as you hope, you will replace Starmer.
Priti Patel alone of the candidates gets this. Jenrick emphatically does not.
His proposal to ban the utterance of "god is great"is a glimpse of how disastrous him being leader would be for the Tories.
On one thing of high salience right now - the riots - it is a test for the Conservative leader candidates.
Serious opposition politicians will support Keir Starmer in his handling of the riots. Not because they are holding back on their intention to replace him at the earliest opportunity, but because the public expects you to be on the side of the people dealing with the problem - the police, the courts, the government. And also because you would expect to do exactly the same when, as you hope, you will replace Starmer.
Priti Patel alone of the candidates gets this. Jenrick emphatically does not.
His proposal to ban the utterance of "god is great"is a glimpse of how disastrous him being leader would be for the Tories.
I did, thankyou. And thankyou PB for all the good advice. I have now squirted WD40 into the lock!
I always use graphite (soft pencil will do) on locks as oil tends to gum them up. WD40 is unlikely to do any harm though.
If you are having to pull the key up or push it down to get it to open the mechanism is likely to be worn, so worth replacing before you have to get out the angle grinder. A 5 minute job for most locks.
Good advice, thanks. I shall do that!
And now, to the shops. My French roadtrip is done and it's back to Camden under grey cloud. Oh well
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
Yes, let’s go back to the 1960s, where kids were kidnapped from Manchester fairgrounds to be tortured to death and buried on the Moors. Good honest child murder by the right sort (wink wink) of murderer.
Can we please stop this rose tinted shite.
Mind, Orwell was complaining about the decline in the quality of the English murder in the 1940s ... always was the case.
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
Because of stuff like THIS
"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"
Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)
With the labour party, there are a lot of contested subjects that they aren't even capable of rationally debating, due to the extent that 'woke discourse' has affected them. so they will just end up making bad political decisions. They may be able to sort out something like planning, but they have almost no chance at all of sorting out immigration.
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
I can see what flying pigs would look like.
That doesn't mean they will come to pass.
Another keeper.
I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.
You'll be the same too.
Yep - given the result in 2019 and the subsequent result in 2024 - it's possible that the same may happen in reverse and the Tories win a majority.
The problem for the Tories though is that they are currently subject to a pincer movement attacked by Labour in urban areas, Reform in the poorest areas and the Lib Dems in the richest areas.
And you can't create a manifesto of ideas that will please all 3 sets of potential voters.
Hence I don't see 2028 being a repeat of 2019 or even 2017 because I don't see them picking off all 3 sets of voters especially if they target reform rather than Labour switchers.
Labour's vote is so low that - unless they really hammer the tactical voting drum - even a small Lab > Lib swing likely gives a moribund Tory party moderate net seats at the next election.
I don't think it is quite as absurd as this, but I do have somewhat similar thoughts whenever nebulously defined 'community leaders' are referred to. It could mean any number of things.
Why the hell did the police ever start coordinating their efforts via unelected "community leaders"? Absurd policy.
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
What's all this tacking to the centre stuff? Mushy compromises and splitting the difference?
Voters want pragmatism and solutions. Real leaders define and shape exactly where that is themselves.
The liberals at large really don't get this (not at all) because they protect core aspects of their theology as sacrosanct and are simply incapable of seeing it in any other way. This happened with free movement and I can see it happening with migration and asylum rights more broadly, and the HRA on top.
That's the opportunity for the Conservatives and to be seen as the new redefined centre ground, if they can get the tone and pitch right.
When I say "tack to the centre", what I mean is that the Conservatives need to win the voters who went Reform first. And once they've won those guys back and eliminated Reform, then they can look to win back voters who went LibDem or Labour.
I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
Because of stuff like THIS
"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"
Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)
With the labour party, there are a lot of contested subjects that they aren't even capable of rationally debating, due to the extent that 'woke discourse' has affected them. so they will just end up making bad political decisions. They may be able to sort out something like planning, but they have almost no chance at all of sorting out immigration.
We saw this during the election campaign where the claim was the Rwanda plan failed to act as a deterrent because there were still crossings. Conveniently omitting that the plan had been stuck in the courts and hadn't actually started...
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
I can see what flying pigs would look like.
That doesn't mean they will come to pass.
Another keeper.
I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.
@krishgm Following Jenrick's suggestion that people who shout 'God is Great' in the street should be arrested another Tory leadership candidate @MelJStride said "I think the suggestion of wholesale criminalisation of the words Allahu Akbar is unwise and insensitive. Any threat in the use of these words can only ever be implied in the very rarest of circumstances. Context clearly matters hugely here."
I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'
"UK"
Outside England and Belfast (bits of), where's the problem?
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
Yes, let’s go back to the 1960s, where kids were kidnapped from Manchester fairgrounds to be tortured to death and buried on the Moors. Good honest child murder by the right sort (wink wink) of murderer.
Can we please stop this rose tinted shite.
Mind, Orwell was complaining about the decline in the quality of the English murder in the 1940s ... always was the case.
British murder in this case, given Brady wasn't English
I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'
"UK"
Outside England and Belfast (bits of), where's the problem?
Perhaps the Canadian government only gives advice on a national level?
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
I can see what flying pigs would look like.
That doesn't mean they will come to pass.
Another keeper.
I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.
You'll be the same too.
Yep - given the result in 2019 and the subsequent result in 2024 - it's possible that the same may happen in reverse and the Tories win a majority.
The problem for the Tories though is that they are currently subject to a pincer movement attacked by Labour in urban areas, Reform in the poorest areas and the Lib Dems in the richest areas.
And you can't create a manifesto of ideas that will please all 3 sets of potential voters.
Hence I don't see 2028 being a repeat of 2019 or even 2017 because I don't see them picking off all 3 sets of voters especially if they target reform rather than Labour switchers.
My point is that such a pincer movement can very easily flip on its head and work precisely in reverse.
Taoiseach Simon Harris says the era of self regulation by social media companies is over
He’s prepared to meet Elon Musk and other social media company execs to discuss Irish government plans for financial sanctions and personal liabilities for failing to remove harmful content
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
I can see what flying pigs would look like.
That doesn't mean they will come to pass.
Another keeper.
I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.
You'll be the same too.
Yep - given the result in 2019 and the subsequent result in 2024 - it's possible that the same may happen in reverse and the Tories win a majority.
The problem for the Tories though is that they are currently subject to a pincer movement attacked by Labour in urban areas, Reform in the poorest areas and the Lib Dems in the richest areas.
And you can't create a manifesto of ideas that will please all 3 sets of potential voters.
Hence I don't see 2028 being a repeat of 2019 or even 2017 because I don't see them picking off all 3 sets of voters especially if they target reform rather than Labour switchers.
All this raises the unaddressed key question, which is not which candidate can bring together incompatible views. The issue is who, if anyone, is the Tory leader who makes the weather, and has leadership quality so great that a diverse set of voters will respond to their lead. That is, a leader who leads, not follows, uniting most of the factions around their distinct vision.
Without this the Tories are dead in the water for now.
BTW whether Starmer is such a leader is being tested right now, with a lot of people hoping he is. He has not yet had a good time with the riots, and has been very one dimensional but the opportunity is still there for him.
I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'
"UK"
Outside England and Belfast (bits of), where's the problem?
If someone is looking to travel to Scotland or Wales they may subsequently wish to visit other parts of the UK during the trip, so of course the advisory cannot be so specific.
On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
Because of stuff like THIS
"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"
Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)
With the labour party, there are a lot of contested subjects that they aren't even capable of rationally debating, due to the extent that 'woke discourse' has affected them. so they will just end up making bad political decisions. They may be able to sort out something like planning, but they have almost no chance at all of sorting out immigration.
Yes, precisely. They are emotionally and constitutionally incapable of dealing with the boats/migration, they are so marinated in Wokeness. It is like asking a devout Catholic to write abortion law and mandate abortion clinics
I predicted before the election that this one issue, above all others, was a reef in the shallows, waiting to rip open the government's keel. I didn't expect them to go sailing speedily TOWARDS the rocks with such blind eagerness
There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.
They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.
That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.
They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.
They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.
Yes, let’s go back to the 1960s, where kids were kidnapped from Manchester fairgrounds to be tortured to death and buried on the Moors. Good honest child murder by the right sort (wink wink) of murderer.
Can we please stop this rose tinted shite.
Mind, Orwell was complaining about the decline in the quality of the English murder in the 1940s ... always was the case.
British murder in this case, given Brady wasn't English
Taoiseach Simon Harris says the era of self regulation by social media companies is over
He’s prepared to meet Elon Musk and other social media company execs to discuss Irish government plans for financial sanctions and personal liabilities for failing to remove harmful content
I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'
"UK"
Outside England and Belfast (bits of), where's the problem?
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
What's all this tacking to the centre stuff? Mushy compromises and splitting the difference?
Voters want pragmatism and solutions. Real leaders define and shape exactly where that is themselves.
The liberals at large really don't get this (not at all) because they protect core aspects of their theology as sacrosanct and are simply incapable of seeing it in any other way. This happened with free movement and I can see it happening with migration and asylum rights more broadly, and the HRA on top.
That's the opportunity for the Conservatives and to be seen as the new redefined centre ground, if they can get the tone and pitch right.
When I say "tack to the centre", what I mean is that the Conservatives need to win the voters who went Reform first. And once they've won those guys back and eliminated Reform, then they can look to win back voters who went LibDem or Labour.
But they do need to win back both sets of voters.
And, importantly, they need to do it in the order you prescribe. Because if they tack to the centre FIRST then Reform will surge and potentially devour them
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
Yes, exactly right
What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny
Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper
Starmer got 34% on a 60% turnout. Sunak struggled home with 24%. As to popularity, he's lost a little but strangely not with 2024 Conservative voters who seem to like him - perhaps not the Devil Incaranate some on here would have us believe.
Sunak is a really nice bloke.
I suspect he's a very nice man, but he got sucked into the "it's all the fault of "lefty lawyers" garbage pumped out by Johnson and Patel, which is the catalyst for nutjobs to smash up the premises of "lefty lawyers " later today. He was better than that!
Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?
This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that
Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone
Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.
Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.
I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.
Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.
What's all this tacking to the centre stuff? Mushy compromises and splitting the difference?
Voters want pragmatism and solutions. Real leaders define and shape exactly where that is themselves.
The liberals at large really don't get this (not at all) because they protect core aspects of their theology as sacrosanct and are simply incapable of seeing it in any other way. This happened with free movement and I can see it happening with migration and asylum rights more broadly, and the HRA on top.
That's the opportunity for the Conservatives and to be seen as the new redefined centre ground, if they can get the tone and pitch right.
When I say "tack to the centre", what I mean is that the Conservatives need to win the voters who went Reform first. And once they've won those guys back and eliminated Reform, then they can look to win back voters who went LibDem or Labour.
But they do need to win back both sets of voters.
There seems to be an unwritten assumption here that Reform voters will vote for the tory party - I just don't see it..
Taoiseach Simon Harris says the era of self regulation by social media companies is over
He’s prepared to meet Elon Musk and other social media company execs to discuss Irish government plans for financial sanctions and personal liabilities for failing to remove harmful content
I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'
"UK"
Outside England and Belfast (bits of), where's the problem?
Perhaps the Canadian government only gives advice on a national level?
*ducks*
The Canadian Government has updated its travel advise for the United Kingdom
Comments
Leaving aside all the other stuff about the mural-painting, lockdown-breaking, expenses-grabbing, self-serving little toad, the guy was possibly the worst housing minister we have ever had, and that is up against some stiff competition. Compare and contrast with Gove, who was actually quite good in the role, and is one of the few Tories I still like.
https://melaniephillips.substack.com/p/britains-multicultural-disaster
Braverman et all should learn how it is done.
Perhaps he will get a grip and he's just having teething problems or it might be the shitshow that was the Cons masked Labours inadequacies.
Un shitshow peut en cacher un autre
Perfect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOtJgWTa3qg&t=994s
The Tories won't be coming back into office without a firm offer on solving immigration and cultural relativism/toxic identity politics, and it's a hard age not a soft one, so best get used to it rather than pretend it's still 2005.
Can we please stop this rose tinted shite.
I honestly believe Johnsonism has killed the Conservatives. So the Cons can either die with dignity or slowly attrit while their membership does.
A pact allows them to be portrayed as being the same as Reform, while also allowing Reform to grow in importance. The Conservative Party depends on being the only party of the right: they need to destroy Reform.
They are fortunate in this in that Reform is led by Nigel Farage, and Nigel - like Ray Davies - falls out with everyone he works with. And also that Reform has, so far, shown little interest in getting their foot in the door in local government.
The next Conservative leader should tack right, and ensure there is no space for Reform. After Reform has been destroyed they can look to expand the tent.
(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government
They will just say she's the wrong sort of BAME or has sold out BAME people.
Anyway, I'm done with all that. All history now as far as I'm concerned.
Best candidate wins. And that's exactly how it should be.
That doesn't mean they will come to pass.
Once you've done it though as a comedian you are sorted as the audience will go to every tour...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927
At this point the Lib Dems only need to take 26 MPs in order to push the Tories into third place or 29 if you took the Tories and Reform together, and yes I know this is a mildly specious argument but under FPTP but there are 72 Lib Dem MPs and only 5 RefUK. However, Truss and now Jenrick saying they support Trump is absolutely lethal, totally lines them up with Farage in the Petin camp and could actually trigger a hard core of the Tories to defect since they completely loathe both Trump and Farage. Local Tories often get on well with local Lib Dems, and we could certainly see emergence of the Lib Dems as the centre right party that many Tories say they are or want to be (but are actually not and definitely would not be as allies of Trump).
"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"
https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/home/labour-scraps-previous-governments-british-workers-social-housing-allocation-plan-87937
Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)
There’s a lot of shock and horror on here that the Tories would dream to do it, but the party has changed, and the political environment has changed, and the Tories being centrist and incompetent (because they cannot demonstrate competence after the last term of office) isn’t going to do anything but drive more voters to the fringes.
Strangely, and I wouldn't usually say this and I'd expect to be called delusional if I did, if the Tories play it right (and that's from automatic) they should easily get 200+ seats and, if Starmer flushes it all down the toilet, they could get to 300+ seats again in one hit too.
They need to have a better team, better plan, and better solutions. And then it's very possible.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0021jb0
Voters want pragmatism and solutions. Real leaders define and shape exactly where that is themselves.
The liberals at large really don't get this (not at all) because they protect core aspects of their theology as sacrosanct and are simply incapable of seeing it in any other way. This happened with free movement and I can see it happening with migration and asylum rights more broadly, and the HRA on top.
That's the opportunity for the Conservatives and to be seen as the new redefined centre ground, if they can get the tone and pitch right.
I would like to see an end of the Farascist adjacent, Brexiteering, Rwanda fanbois fukwits currently running the party in the faint hope that sanity would return
But yes, I want him to win so he will be publicly humiliated
Leon's endorsement is encouraging in that regard
So, approximately once an hour
This is what it means being in government. You get attacked constantly. I understand that lefties are not used to it
I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.
You'll be the same too.
Ironically, though, in a universe where Sunak had waited until the Autumn, we might have seen it with the current situation as Sunak would almost certainly have attempted to negotiate with the rioters to curry favour with Reform voters. We dodged a bullet there.
The BBC at its condescending worst in translating morality, events and society for we oiks mode. Guests are either people I’ve always disliked or people I’ve grown to dislike since appearing on MM (though I only hear the trailers nowadays).
What's great about this ticket is there's the candidate born in 1964 to appeal to young voters and the candidate born in 1964 to appeal to older voters.
BTW, the most Republican birth cohort in America is people born in 1964.
https://x.com/DanaHoule/status/1820867852792164652
It's so stupidity reductive, and wrong. The Conservatives need to win over floating voters and build an election winning coalition: that will involve both Reform and LD/Labour defectors. They are both required to get back into power.
They are not mutually exclusive and there is no path to power that conveniently ignores one but not the other.
I'd essentially rule out voting for any Conservative leadership candidate who talks in this way.
The Tories could reverse some of this decline in one go. If they have a capable leader.
The idea they could return to power if led by a cheap crook and failure like Jenrick is ludicrous.
Remember, dissatisfaction with Starmer doesn't automatically mean that votes will head to the Tories.
He's about to be shown just how wrong he can be.
If you are having to pull the key up or push it down to get it to open the mechanism is likely to be worn, so worth replacing before you have to get out the angle grinder. A 5 minute job for most locks.
The problem for the Tories though is that they are currently subject to a pincer movement attacked by Labour in urban areas, Reform in the poorest areas and the Lib Dems in the richest areas.
And you can't create a manifesto of ideas that will please all 3 sets of potential voters.
Hence I don't see 2028 being a repeat of 2019 or even 2017 because I don't see them picking off all 3 sets of voters especially if they target reform rather than Labour switchers.
Serious opposition politicians will support Keir Starmer in his handling of the riots. Not because they are holding back on their intention to replace him at the earliest opportunity, but because the public expects you to be on the side of the people dealing with the problem - the police, the courts, the government. And also because you would expect to do exactly the same when, as you hope, you will replace Starmer.
Priti Patel alone of the candidates gets this. Jenrick emphatically does not.
1. a pact might allow those areas which are badly represented to get better representation. FPTP cuts them off at the legs atm. If therer's a realistic hance of representation the forgotten places might get a voice. The Tories cant reach the parts Reform can.
2. A pact is a pact it's up to the two parties to work out an programme. The Tories happily knifed Clegg so let's not pretend they are "honourable". Pacts only stay together if there is something for both sides.
3. Farage is a tremendous shit stirrer and I mean that as a plus. He will do the dirty work Souihern Cons run from and give Labour a hard time. The Tories will have a hard enough time battling the LDs in the South if they are to get back on their feet.
4. As you point out Farage is no spring chicken. Post Nigel there may be a more rounded character who makes a longer term alliance easier. I use the Lab Coop model as an example.
5. The Tories are for the foreseeable future in no shape to destroy Reform. They should forget about it. They should worry about the 2.8 million natural conservatives who sit at home ( Im one ) because the party has no conservatives values or vision. get them back voting and that's a lot of votes. In the mean tinme they have the LDs stealing their southern seats and labour as their opponent. A war on two fronts is bad, opening up a third is not a good idea.
6. I dont think the Conservatives should tack right. They should just try being conservatives again. They need a moderate skill leader who can hold a party together. The so called modernisers became addicted with "elections are won in the centre". This is bollocks. The correct statement is "elections are won in the centre if you keep your party wings on board"
You have to bring all the elements with you and simply jumping to the right wont fix their problem. They need a bit of red meat for all their activists and a vision for where they are going to hold it together.
So if they want to be out of power for quite some time do what they are doing. If they want to hold HMG to account and win an election eat some crow and cut a deal. A three front war is a mugs game.
TBH, that's the only thing about the contest which us sightly interesting.
Boris and Truss on the other hand....
@krishgm
Deputy PM @AngelaRayner criticises Tory leadership candidate @RobertJenrick over the racist riots saying ""People like Robert Jenrick have been stirring up some of the problems that we've seen in our communities ...Actually, what we want to see is communities coming together, and the vast majority of the public want to see that."
I really think we need some statistical support for this. I think the evidence is patchy at the very best, contradictory as often as not.
And now, to the shops. My French roadtrip is done and it's back to Camden under grey cloud. Oh well
Labour's vote is so low that - unless they really hammer the tactical voting drum - even a small Lab > Lib swing likely gives a moribund Tory party moderate net seats at the next election.
Why the hell did the police ever start coordinating their efforts via unelected "community leaders"? Absurd policy.
How do people find out who their community leader is? Is there a 'howdidtheyvote' equivalent? Or do they get assigned a community leader at birth? Do I have a community leader?
https://nitter.poast.org/christiancalgie/status/1821093196346081407#m
But they do need to win back both sets of voters.
Following Jenrick's suggestion that people who shout 'God is Great' in the street should be arrested another Tory leadership candidate @MelJStride said "I think the suggestion of wholesale criminalisation of the words Allahu Akbar is unwise and insensitive. Any threat in the use of these words can only ever be implied in the very rarest of circumstances. Context clearly matters hugely here."
Outside England and Belfast (bits of), where's the problem?
*ducks*
Without this the Tories are dead in the water for now.
BTW whether Starmer is such a leader is being tested right now, with a lot of people hoping he is. He has not yet had a good time with the riots, and has been very one dimensional but the opportunity is still there for him.
I predicted before the election that this one issue, above all others, was a reef in the shallows, waiting to rip open the government's keel. I didn't expect them to go sailing speedily TOWARDS the rocks with such blind eagerness
Neutralising Reform is the initial task
I wonder if Harris is related to Ed Miliband ?
https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/united-kingdom