It was my second visit. My first was as a student. Going with family is a different experience. It's a very pretty city, but in trying to give the kids a bowdlerised highlights-in-one-day package on a baking day in August, it quickly starts to feel like every otger capital city: hot and crowded and peppered with angry Arabs and pride flags and American candy stores and graffiti and luxury stores and tat, and the beauty you came to see quickly fades into the background. Even an inspired lunch choice from oldest daughter brought only temporary respite. I mean, we had a nice day. But I was finding it hard to feel as well-disposed to the place as I did last time I visited.
And then, at oldest daughter's polite insistence, we did this. And it was terrifying and brilliant and turned the day into one I will never forget: https://youtu.be/GjgD0cfcmV0?si=DxwfR2xLb2flgUcP
It helps that this is in Noord Amsterdam - a fiveminute ferry ride away from central station, but completely different in feel and
That looks fun
Can I ask why you chose Holland and Amsterdam? It is not what it was
Because I'm not very adventurous and somewhat impecunious.
Holland, because: We have done Cornwall for the last 8 years. East side of the Camel estuary. And it is perfect, and I'm slightly sad not to be there, but we have done everything there now and one year's memories are starting to blur into another. And while I could spend all day on a good beach, that's not true of all my family. And my oldest won't necessarily be holidaying with us for many more years, and wants to see a bit of the world. But also, we're pasty northerners who don't do well in the heat, and flying in the summer holidays as a family of five is prohibitively expensive. And every time we've been to France it's been cold and wet - and while I try to be open minded about abroad I find France just far too French, Breton cider aside. And many people have recommended this spot to us - it's a holiday park within striking distance of the sea, with all sorts on site. It's genuinely good - has the best aquapark I've ever been to. I wouldn't rule out coming again. But holidaying in such a crowded corner of Europe does feel odd. And Amsterdam because we're here so may as well go and take a look. I have however solved the mystery of where all the families of five holiday. This place is full of them. I've been considering other Northern European destinations should we elect to do something similar next year: Germany and Poland on the Baltic coast, perhaps.
Understood. And all fair
But I think you’d love l’Aveyron. It is considerably cooler than the med - because altitude - but still gets the amazing sun. Think Cornwall on a perfect day. 26C then 16C at night - no rain
And if you do get hot you just dive in one of the rivers. Everyone does it. Then have a beer that you’ve cooled in the waters
I can honestly say in all my travels I have never so firmly felt: my god, this is the place to come for a family holiday
And rodez is pretty cheap to get to from the uk
I shall investigate and propose to the family for next year!
Belgium is worth a visit. I had a great motorcycle holiday camping there in 1987. Interesting cities, particularly Ypres, lovely country in the ardennes and Luxembourg charming too.
It was my second visit. My first was as a student. Going with family is a different experience. It's a very pretty city, but in trying to give the kids a bowdlerised highlights-in-one-day package on a baking day in August, it quickly starts to feel like every otger capital city: hot and crowded and peppered with angry Arabs and pride flags and American candy stores and graffiti and luxury stores and tat, and the beauty you came to see quickly fades into the background. Even an inspired lunch choice from oldest daughter brought only temporary respite. I mean, we had a nice day. But I was finding it hard to feel as well-disposed to the place as I did last time I visited.
And then, at oldest daughter's polite insistence, we did this. And it was terrifying and brilliant and turned the day into one I will never forget: https://youtu.be/GjgD0cfcmV0?si=DxwfR2xLb2flgUcP
It helps that this is in Noord Amsterdam - a fiveminute ferry ride away from central station, but completely different in feel and
That looks fun
Can I ask why you chose Holland and Amsterdam? It is not what it was
Because I'm not very adventurous and somewhat impecunious.
Holland, because: We have done Cornwall for the last 8 years. East side of the Camel estuary. And it is perfect, and I'm slightly sad not to be there, but we have done everything there now and one year's memories are starting to blur into another. And while I could spend all day on a good beach, that's not true of all my family. And my oldest won't necessarily be holidaying with us for many more years, and wants to see a bit of the world. But also, we're pasty northerners who don't do well in the heat, and flying in the summer holidays as a family of five is prohibitively expensive. And every time we've been to France it's been cold and wet - and while I try to be open minded about abroad I find France just far too French, Breton cider aside. And many people have recommended this spot to us - it's a holiday park within striking distance of the sea, with all sorts on site. It's genuinely good - has the best aquapark I've ever been to. I wouldn't rule out coming again. But holidaying in such a crowded corner of Europe does feel odd. And Amsterdam because we're here so may as well go and take a look. I have however solved the mystery of where all the families of five holiday. This place is full of them. I've been considering other Northern European destinations should we elect to do something similar next year: Germany and Poland on the Baltic coast, perhaps.
Understood. And all fair
But I think you’d love l’Aveyron. It is considerably cooler than the med - because altitude - but still gets the amazing sun. Think Cornwall on a perfect day. 26C then 16C at night - no rain
And if you do get hot you just dive in one of the rivers. Everyone does it. Then have a beer that you’ve cooled in the waters
I can honestly say in all my travels I have never so firmly felt: my god, this is the place to come for a family holiday
And rodez is pretty cheap to get to from the uk
I shall investigate and propose to the family for next year!
Jenrick turned up for a very quickly arranged Chinese dinner last night. Fluent presentation but the usual hard-right shtick to entice the membership. Hey that worked so well in 1997-2005. I berated him for his open support for Trump (well, what a surprise) to which he replied that the GOP is our "sister party".
No chance of his getting my vote but I fear he'll win. What then after almost 50 years party membership?
Next week it's drinkkies with Mel.
So not only does he support Trump, but he does so for a facile reason. If he is the best the Conservatives can come up with they really might be toast.
More to the point, when you go through the CVs of the new Lib Dem MPs, Lots of ex military, lots of really impressive academic, business, community and local credentials... these are the kinds of MPs who could easily have been conservative. Then you think well, it the Tories go down the Reform/Populist rabbit hole there is an actual conservative party to vote for- moderate decent, pragmatic, hard working, reasonable and sensible. Everything that the Tories used to claim to be.
At this point the Lib Dems only need to take 26 MPs in order to push the Tories into third place or 29 if you took the Tories and Reform together, and yes I know this is a mildly specious argument but under FPTP but there are 72 Lib Dem MPs and only 5 RefUK. However, Truss and now Jenrick saying they support Trump is absolutely lethal, totally lines them up with Farage in the Petin camp and could actually trigger a hard core of the Tories to defect since they completely loathe both Trump and Farage. Local Tories often get on well with local Lib Dems, and we could certainly see emergence of the Lib Dems as the centre right party that many Tories say they are or want to be (but are actually not and definitely would not be as allies of Trump).
Most LDs neither want nor would accept being a centre right party, the social democratic wing of the party would defect en masse to Labour if it tried as effectively happened in 2015 when Clegg's centre right LDs in Cameron's coalition govt got just 8% of the vote
It really takes a special kind of person to lecture someone who has been a member of the Liberals and Liberal Democrats for over 45 years, and who has been pretty active over much of that time, as a candidate, both Parliamentary and local, as an organiser and as a very regular conference attender about what the membership of the party is and what it is not.
I know my party and you, sir, do not.
You don't, you only know the Liberal wing of your party not the Social Democratic wing clearly.
If Orange Book Liberalism was so popular it would not have got just 8% of the vote in 2015 would it? The only examples of Liberal parties being the main centre right party in western nations are in Australia (where they have effectively always held that position in coalition with the conservative Nationals), Japan, where the LDP has been dominant for decades and arguably the Netherlands which is a much more socially liberal nation by culture than the UK is.
If the LDs became a centre right party the social democrats who are heirs of those like Jenkins and Williams and Owen who defected from Labour in the 1980s ie those who make up the Democrats part of the LDs would defect en masse back to Labour which under Starmer would be closer to the old SDP than a centre right Orange Book Liberal party would be
Much as I like you @hyufd, you really aren't right on this one and @Cicero is. We do know our party and you don't. There is no conflict within the LDs between Liberals and Social Democrats. Much of the time even we don't know which colleagues are which. I remember having this discussion at a LD party after the election where we were comparing opinions. I couldn't have told you before those discussions if other members were from one wing or the other, because we just don't have those wings even though some of us are clearly liberals and some of us are clearly social democrats.
Looking at the 2015 election result is daft. We didn't lose because we were Liberals and not Social Democrats. Nobody believes that. We lost because of the coalition and things like Tuition fees. If you asked any voters they couldn't have told you whether we were mainly Liberals or Social Democrats in 2015 and they couldn't now. Only anoraks like us know there is a difference.
And see my other post re being able to win more seats. Here is a bit of info for you. In Guildford in the build up to the election we knocked on 31,000 doors and sent out regular leaflets. During the election we knocked on 32,000 doors. That is nearly everyone twice. 13 leaflets or letters went out and several hundred posterboards went up during the election, although many of those letters were targeted so not to everyone.
There are plenty of Tory seats we could have done that in but didn't have the resources to do so. So we targeted ruthlessly. There are now the next batch of seats to go for and resources we can move from the last lot of targets we have won,
Now that may not happen. The Tories may recover and we may be defending ruthlessly and targeting nowhere. But if it stays the same we will be have many more Tory seats next time as well as some labour ones to go for.
History is on my side. For example, in 1945 the Liberals got just 9% on a centrist or even centre right liberal platform and the Liberals never got over 10% of the vote until Grimond got 11% in 1964, before falling back to 8.5% in 1966. In Feb 1974 Thorpe's Liberals did admittedly peak at 19% (though that was partly a result of his being more charismatic than Heath and Wilson) before falling to 13% under Steel in 1979 after Thorpe's scandals emerged.
Only the social democrat wing of the Labour Party leaving to form the SDP under Roy Jenkins and then forming the Alliance with the Liberals at the 1983 general election got the combined Liberals and SDP over 20% on a centre left platform to 25% and then 22% under Owen in 1987.
The merged parties which formed the LDs then never ceased to get under 15% of the voted from 1992 to 2010, peaking at 22% in 2005 under Charles Kennedy on an even left of Blair's Labour platform never mind just left of the Tories and 23% in 2010 when Clegg pledged to scrap tuition fees before moving right and backing increasing them in government as you say.
After going into coalition with the Tories in 2010 however the LDs collapsed to just 8% in 2015 and although they have got back over 10% since by appealing to hardline Remainers who opposed Brexit they have still not got over 15% again.
If the LDs became a centre right party they would also lose most of the Labour tactical votes that helped win them southern seats from the Tories last month and also have no chance in Labour seats Kennedy won in 2005
There won't be a Tory party, and politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum. Plenty of ex Tories will never vote for Farage.
Why won't there be a Tory party? Not one leadership contender is suggesting merging with Reform.
However if that did happen Canada style then if the LDs became a centre right One Nation Tory party effectively obviously the social democratic wing of the LDs would in turn move to Labour
I've covered this in several posts to explain why that wouldn't happen. Whether you agree with me or not it is worth trying to take on what we are saying.
I'll try again:
a) Unlike the Tories and Labour although we all have different views (as you know I am a Liberal rather than a Social Democrat) that doesn't really register within the party itself very much. I have no idea what most of the people I campaigned with are. Unless I get into a discussion I am unaware whether a fellow member is a Liberal or Social Democrat. Although individually we are one or the other to some extent, we don't actually have such wings, unlike Labour and the Tories.
b) if you canvas someone (try doing this?) and they tell you they are voting LD, try asking them whether they are Liberals or Social Democrats. Except for the odd person like me you will get a blank response. If you ask which wing a Tory voter or Labour voter is on, many will know.
Don't assume because you have these wings in the Tory party they exist in the same way in the LDs.
However if we went to PR, I do agree and think that split would happen.
a) It certainly would if the LDs went centre right. See the collapse in the LD vote from 23% in 2010 to just 8% in 2015 after the LDs went into government with the Tories, a level the LDs have still not fully recovered from. You would stay in a centre right Liberal party, social democrats would go to Labour. There is an Orange Book and social democrat LD wing.
b) Social Democrat voters certainly knew they weren't centre right in 2015, hence those that voted LD in 2010 went Labour in 2015.
If we went PR all the main parties would likely split to some degree yes
We have been around this loop twice already @hyufd so I suggest we stop, but just to answer your points again:
We did not collapse in 2015 because we went centre right. We collapsed because of the coalition, because of tuition fees, because.... The electorate had no idea if we were centre right or social democrats. As I said test it, ask voters when canvassing. See if they know. They don't. They have not a clue.
Why do they not have a clue because there is no Social Democrat wing and Liberal wing. Several of us who are long standing members have told you so. Don't you think we would know if such things existed. Yes there are Social Democrats. Yes there are Liberals like me. But there are no wings. It is just one big melting pot. We argue about stuff, we disagree about stuff, but I couldn't tell you which 'wing' any of my fellow LDs would sit in, without an in depth discussion with them.
What I do agree with you on is that all parties would split with PR and yes I would be in a Liberal party and those colleagues of mine who are Social Democrats would probably join a Social Democrat party. But at this point in time, with the odd exception, I could not tell you who they are. This is very different to the Tory and Labour party who do have wings and who do shift left and right and the public notice (eg Corbyn cf Starmer). Only anoraks like you and me notice any change in the LDs
How surprised should we be that Dylan Carey, who pleaded guilty to violent disorder today at Liverpool Crown Court, was out canvassing for Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon in Makerfield last month?
It was my second visit. My first was as a student. Going with family is a different experience. It's a very pretty city, but in trying to give the kids a bowdlerised highlights-in-one-day package on a baking day in August, it quickly starts to feel like every otger capital city: hot and crowded and peppered with angry Arabs and pride flags and American candy stores and graffiti and luxury stores and tat, and the beauty you came to see quickly fades into the background. Even an inspired lunch choice from oldest daughter brought only temporary respite. I mean, we had a nice day. But I was finding it hard to feel as well-disposed to the place as I did last time I visited.
And then, at oldest daughter's polite insistence, we did this. And it was terrifying and brilliant and turned the day into one I will never forget: https://youtu.be/GjgD0cfcmV0?si=DxwfR2xLb2flgUcP
It helps that this is in Noord Amsterdam - a fiveminute ferry ride away from central station, but completely different in feel and
Go to Amsterdam in winter or late autumn.
Uncrowded.
Completely different.
The darkening light and maybe some fog adds to the atmosphere. Everywhere you look there are high windows with lights and candles. Empty canal sides.
It is pure noom.
My favourite time to visit Venice is the depths of Winter. No tourists to speak of - but breathtakingly pretty. Lead-black canals and brutal, eye-watering light.
Just for a bit of fun, regarding the Olympics Medal table, I assigned 3 points for a Gold, 2 points for a Silver, and 1 for a Bronze:
G S B Total points United States 81 70 32 183 China 75 46 17 138 France 39 34 21 94 Great Britain 36 34 20 90 Australia 54 24 11 89 Japan 36 12 13 61 South Korea 36 16 7 59 Italy 27 20 8 55 Netherlands 27 10 6 43 Germany 24 10 5 39
Remember, this is just for a bit of fun!
On that basis we are doing well
On the face of it GB had another shytshow in the Olympics today
BUT
Our 400m runner got a European record and was the best European performance in the Olympics since Viktor Markin 1980 (someone can check this)
In the cycling AUS were expected to win and again we did really well
Our chance of Top 3 medal table is gone now after AUS won loads of golds today, well done to them they deserve it, their best performance of all time?
And it's unlikely we will catch France. A few more gold medals in the cycling and maybe @KJH in the pentathlon and we can finish Top 5 which we would have taken at the start 👍
Just for a bit of fun, regarding the Olympics Medal table, I assigned 3 points for a Gold, 2 points for a Silver, and 1 for a Bronze:
G S B Total points United States 81 70 32 183 China 75 46 17 138 France 39 34 21 94 Great Britain 36 34 20 90 Australia 54 24 11 89 Japan 36 12 13 61 South Korea 36 16 7 59 Italy 27 20 8 55 Netherlands 27 10 6 43 Germany 24 10 5 39
Remember, this is just for a bit of fun!
On that basis we are doing well
On the face of it GB had another shytshow in the Olympics today
BUT
Our 400m runner got a European record and was the best European performance in the Olympics since Viktor Markin 1980 (someone can check this)
In the cycling AUS were expected to win and again we did really well
Our chance of Top 3 medal table is gone now after AUS won loads of golds today, well done to them they deserve it, their best performance of all time?
And it's unlikely we will catch France. A few more gold medals in the cycling and maybe @KJH in the pentathlon and we can finish Top 5 which we would have taken at the start 👍
How surprised should we be that Dylan Carey, who pleaded guilty to violent disorder today at Liverpool Crown Court, was out canvassing for Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon in Makerfield last month?
It was my second visit. My first was as a student. Going with family is a different experience. It's a very pretty city, but in trying to give the kids a bowdlerised highlights-in-one-day package on a baking day in August, it quickly starts to feel like every otger capital city: hot and crowded and peppered with angry Arabs and pride flags and American candy stores and graffiti and luxury stores and tat, and the beauty you came to see quickly fades into the background. Even an inspired lunch choice from oldest daughter brought only temporary respite. I mean, we had a nice day. But I was finding it hard to feel as well-disposed to the place as I did last time I visited.
And then, at oldest daughter's polite insistence, we did this. And it was terrifying and brilliant and turned the day into one I will never forget: https://youtu.be/GjgD0cfcmV0?si=DxwfR2xLb2flgUcP
It helps that this is in Noord Amsterdam - a fiveminute ferry ride away from central station, but completely different in feel and
That looks fun
Can I ask why you chose Holland and Amsterdam? It is not what it was
Because I'm not very adventurous and somewhat impecunious.
Holland, because: We have done Cornwall for the last 8 years. East side of the Camel estuary. And it is perfect, and I'm slightly sad not to be there, but we have done everything there now and one year's memories are starting to blur into another. And while I could spend all day on a good beach, that's not true of all my family. And my oldest won't necessarily be holidaying with us for many more years, and wants to see a bit of the world. But also, we're pasty northerners who don't do well in the heat, and flying in the summer holidays as a family of five is prohibitively expensive. And every time we've been to France it's been cold and wet - and while I try to be open minded about abroad I find France just far too French, Breton cider aside. And many people have recommended this spot to us - it's a holiday park within striking distance of the sea, with all sorts on site. It's genuinely good - has the best aquapark I've ever been to. I wouldn't rule out coming again. But holidaying in such a crowded corner of Europe does feel odd. And Amsterdam because we're here so may as well go and take a look. I have however solved the mystery of where all the families of five holiday. This place is full of them. I've been considering other Northern European destinations should we elect to do something similar next year: Germany and Poland on the Baltic coast, perhaps.
Understood. And all fair
But I think you’d love l’Aveyron. It is considerably cooler than the med - because altitude - but still gets the amazing sun. Think Cornwall on a perfect day. 26C then 16C at night - no rain
And if you do get hot you just dive in one of the rivers. Everyone does it. Then have a beer that you’ve cooled in the waters
I can honestly say in all my travels I have never so firmly felt: my god, this is the place to come for a family holiday
And rodez is pretty cheap to get to from the uk
I shall investigate and propose to the family for next year!
Bonne chance!
You have whet my appetite as well. As I mentioned some days ago I was there (twice) about 25 years ago and enjoyed it and you are making me think of returning. I am also thinking of the Midi canal which I haven't done.
Currently planning however a trip to Portugal again and Seville/Cordoba/Granada this September and October.
It was my second visit. My first was as a student. Going with family is a different experience. It's a very pretty city, but in trying to give the kids a bowdlerised highlights-in-one-day package on a baking day in August, it quickly starts to feel like every otger capital city: hot and crowded and peppered with angry Arabs and pride flags and American candy stores and graffiti and luxury stores and tat, and the beauty you came to see quickly fades into the background. Even an inspired lunch choice from oldest daughter brought only temporary respite. I mean, we had a nice day. But I was finding it hard to feel as well-disposed to the place as I did last time I visited.
And then, at oldest daughter's polite insistence, we did this. And it was terrifying and brilliant and turned the day into one I will never forget: https://youtu.be/GjgD0cfcmV0?si=DxwfR2xLb2flgUcP
It helps that this is in Noord Amsterdam - a fiveminute ferry ride away from central station, but completely different in feel and
...intensity, and an area I hadn't been to before - so I had no preconceived notions for it to live up to. But the activity: I'm a hard man to frighten, but it was one of the scariest things I've ever done. Which is pretty brilliant in itself. I also now have a photo I will forever treasure (I thought they'd sting you for it but you can download it for free) of me and youngest daughter from behind, dangling improbably above the Amsterdam skyline. It's hard to believe it's not greenscreened.
Aside from all that, the best thing about the day was Dutch public transport, which was thrillingly punctual and well connected.
Go to south l'Aveyron!
Honestly, it is the Gallic Garden of Eden. Provence before Peter Mayle and the plebs. Gorgeous towns and villages everywhere. You have brilliant kayaking, wild swimming, hiking, climbing, zipwiring (often over the kayakers). There are endless places to picnic, there is fishing to be done, there are entire valleys to explore with barely anyone else
There are tiny film festivals in the villages. There are cafes in sun splashed squares with Aperols for the adults. There are little museums and galleries and there are big cities not so far away, Lyon, Toulouse, if you insist. Rent a house (they are still incredibly cheap compared to Provence or the Dordogne). Go see Templar towns with real life artisanal cutlers in the ramparts with proper burning forges. Listen to mad boho jazz bands in the very very French village fetes. You will probably be the only non-French people
It is idyllic. I was there with my older daughter and we had superb fun - but a part of me was weirdly yearning to be a Dad with three kids, introducing them to this paradise
It is one hour drive from Rodez, 90 minutes from Montepelier. Amazing
I like the sound of all that, except perhaps for the heat! I am by instinct a doer rather than a seeer on holiday and that sort of thing suits my temper much more.
The advantage of l'Aveyron is that everything you do in the day is pretty cheap
Kayaking is about €15 per person for two hours, they let you take picnics and extend it to four hours, they don't mind, so that's a whole day, you swim, you drink, you snooze, it's lush. I have kayaked all around the world - I love it - especially in warm sun - and the Gorges du Tarn is probably the best kayaking I have ever done. You can also canoe, or do really fierce rapids etc
Also picnics for dinner are brilliant: you will maybe want to picnic every night as well - we did - because the views are so stupendous and it is such a joy, then you clamber home in the dark with headtorches. Magical. Nightingales sing, bats swing around, the vivid wildlife is wonderful, boys will romp and girls will dream, or vice versa
It is a last glimpse of beautiful Europe as she was, rural and unspoiled and untouristed, and all of it one hour from Rodez airport
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Just for a bit of fun, regarding the Olympics Medal table, I assigned 3 points for a Gold, 2 points for a Silver, and 1 for a Bronze:
G S B Total points United States 81 70 32 183 China 75 46 17 138 France 39 34 21 94 Great Britain 36 34 20 90 Australia 54 24 11 89 Japan 36 12 13 61 South Korea 36 16 7 59 Italy 27 20 8 55 Netherlands 27 10 6 43 Germany 24 10 5 39
Remember, this is just for a bit of fun!
On that basis we are doing well
On the face of it GB had another shytshow in the Olympics today
BUT
Our 400m runner got a European record and was the best European performance in the Olympics since Viktor Markin 1980 (someone can check this)
In the cycling AUS were expected to win and again we did really well
Our chance of Top 3 medal table is gone now after AUS won loads of golds today, well done to them they deserve it, their best performance of all time?
And it's unlikely we will catch France. A few more gold medals in the cycling and maybe @KJH in the pentathlon and we can finish Top 5 which we would have taken at the start 👍
Jenrick turned up for a very quickly arranged Chinese dinner last night. Fluent presentation but the usual hard-right shtick to entice the membership. Hey that worked so well in 1997-2005. I berated him for his open support for Trump (well, what a surprise) to which he replied that the GOP is our "sister party".
No chance of his getting my vote but I fear he'll win. What then after almost 50 years party membership?
Next week it's drinkkies with Mel.
So not only does he support Trump, but he does so for a facile reason. If he is the best the Conservatives can come up with they really might be toast.
More to the point, when you go through the CVs of the new Lib Dem MPs, Lots of ex military, lots of really impressive academic, business, community and local credentials... these are the kinds of MPs who could easily have been conservative. Then you think well, it the Tories go down the Reform/Populist rabbit hole there is an actual conservative party to vote for- moderate decent, pragmatic, hard working, reasonable and sensible. Everything that the Tories used to claim to be.
At this point the Lib Dems only need to take 26 MPs in order to push the Tories into third place or 29 if you took the Tories and Reform together, and yes I know this is a mildly specious argument but under FPTP but there are 72 Lib Dem MPs and only 5 RefUK. However, Truss and now Jenrick saying they support Trump is absolutely lethal, totally lines them up with Farage in the Petin camp and could actually trigger a hard core of the Tories to defect since they completely loathe both Trump and Farage. Local Tories often get on well with local Lib Dems, and we could certainly see emergence of the Lib Dems as the centre right party that many Tories say they are or want to be (but are actually not and definitely would not be as allies of Trump).
Most LDs neither want nor would accept being a centre right party, the social democratic wing of the party would defect en masse to Labour if it tried as effectively happened in 2015 when Clegg's centre right LDs in Cameron's coalition govt got just 8% of the vote
It really takes a special kind of person to lecture someone who has been a member of the Liberals and Liberal Democrats for over 45 years, and who has been pretty active over much of that time, as a candidate, both Parliamentary and local, as an organiser and as a very regular conference attender about what the membership of the party is and what it is not.
I know my party and you, sir, do not.
You don't, you only know the Liberal wing of your party not the Social Democratic wing clearly.
If Orange Book Liberalism was so popular it would not have got just 8% of the vote in 2015 would it? The only examples of Liberal parties being the main centre right party in western nations are in Australia (where they have effectively always held that position in coalition with the conservative Nationals), Japan, where the LDP has been dominant for decades and arguably the Netherlands which is a much more socially liberal nation by culture than the UK is.
If the LDs became a centre right party the social democrats who are heirs of those like Jenkins and Williams and Owen who defected from Labour in the 1980s ie those who make up the Democrats part of the LDs would defect en masse back to Labour which under Starmer would be closer to the old SDP than a centre right Orange Book Liberal party would be
Much as I like you @hyufd, you really aren't right on this one and @Cicero is. We do know our party and you don't. There is no conflict within the LDs between Liberals and Social Democrats. Much of the time even we don't know which colleagues are which. I remember having this discussion at a LD party after the election where we were comparing opinions. I couldn't have told you before those discussions if other members were from one wing or the other, because we just don't have those wings even though some of us are clearly liberals and some of us are clearly social democrats.
Looking at the 2015 election result is daft. We didn't lose because we were Liberals and not Social Democrats. Nobody believes that. We lost because of the coalition and things like Tuition fees. If you asked any voters they couldn't have told you whether we were mainly Liberals or Social Democrats in 2015 and they couldn't now. Only anoraks like us know there is a difference.
And see my other post re being able to win more seats. Here is a bit of info for you. In Guildford in the build up to the election we knocked on 31,000 doors and sent out regular leaflets. During the election we knocked on 32,000 doors. That is nearly everyone twice. 13 leaflets or letters went out and several hundred posterboards went up during the election, although many of those letters were targeted so not to everyone.
There are plenty of Tory seats we could have done that in but didn't have the resources to do so. So we targeted ruthlessly. There are now the next batch of seats to go for and resources we can move from the last lot of targets we have won,
Now that may not happen. The Tories may recover and we may be defending ruthlessly and targeting nowhere. But if it stays the same we will be have many more Tory seats next time as well as some labour ones to go for.
History is on my side. For example, in 1945 the Liberals got just 9% on a centrist or even centre right liberal platform and the Liberals never got over 10% of the vote until Grimond got 11% in 1964, before falling back to 8.5% in 1966. In Feb 1974 Thorpe's Liberals did admittedly peak at 19% (though that was partly a result of his being more charismatic than Heath and Wilson) before falling to 13% under Steel in 1979 after Thorpe's scandals emerged.
Only the social democrat wing of the Labour Party leaving to form the SDP under Roy Jenkins and then forming the Alliance with the Liberals at the 1983 general election got the combined Liberals and SDP over 20% on a centre left platform to 25% and then 22% under Owen in 1987.
The merged parties which formed the LDs then never ceased to get under 15% of the voted from 1992 to 2010, peaking at 22% in 2005 under Charles Kennedy on an even left of Blair's Labour platform never mind just left of the Tories and 23% in 2010 when Clegg pledged to scrap tuition fees before moving right and backing increasing them in government as you say.
After going into coalition with the Tories in 2010 however the LDs collapsed to just 8% in 2015 and although they have got back over 10% since by appealing to hardline Remainers who opposed Brexit they have still not got over 15% again.
If the LDs became a centre right party they would also lose most of the Labour tactical votes that helped win them southern seats from the Tories last month and also have no chance in Labour seats Kennedy won in 2005
The Conservatives however have never polled lower than 30% in a General Election (we know they have in local elections and European parliamentary elections) until July 4th when they polled 24% and won 121 seats, their worst performance since the Reform Act of 1832 so applying historical parallels when we are in uncharted territory seems a little like hopecasting. The last time they polled anywhere near this (1997, 30.7% and 165 seats) they were out of Government for 13 years.
24% was still double the 12% the LDs got.
In 1997 Labour under Blair got 43%, 10% more than the 33% Labour under Starmer got
Your problem with that is that it illustrates two things - the potential for Tory revival at the next election, and the potential for oblivion.
Your opponents winning big without actually doing that well comes with a huge, flashing warning sign.
Only if the rightwing vote is effectively split again
What about the last few days makes you feel the right is coming together rather than splintering further?
Farage shifting to target working class Labour seats now and Jenrick, likely next Tory leader, shifting towards what Reform voters want to hear. Indeed you could well have Reform focusing on working class Labour seats the Tories normally can't reach and the Tories focusing on middle class Labour and LD seats Reform normally can't reach
Jenrick would be a terrible choice of leader and the conservative party only hope of recovery is to divorce entirely the idea if will accommodate Reform
So right. The choice is crush or accommodate. It's possible candidates for leader have to lean to accommodate to win the leadership, and will snap back. But it is complete madness. The only strategy is to crush.
Tories only got 24%, that is never enough to win under FPTP, with Reform however the combined Tory and Reform vote was 38% which certainly is.
Jenrick could reach out to Reform voters, maybe even do a deal with Farage while still not repelling 2019 Conservative voters who went Labour or LD in a way Patel would. So he would also be better able to exploit any unpopularity for the Labour government
You try to compromise with crazy then. I wish you the best of British luck.
Jenrick turned up for a very quickly arranged Chinese dinner last night. Fluent presentation but the usual hard-right shtick to entice the membership. Hey that worked so well in 1997-2005. I berated him for his open support for Trump (well, what a surprise) to which he replied that the GOP is our "sister party".
No chance of his getting my vote but I fear he'll win. What then after almost 50 years party membership?
Next week it's drinkkies with Mel.
So not only does he support Trump, but he does so for a facile reason. If he is the best the Conservatives can come up with they really might be toast.
More to the point, when you go through the CVs of the new Lib Dem MPs, Lots of ex military, lots of really impressive academic, business, community and local credentials... these are the kinds of MPs who could easily have been conservative. Then you think well, it the Tories go down the Reform/Populist rabbit hole there is an actual conservative party to vote for- moderate decent, pragmatic, hard working, reasonable and sensible. Everything that the Tories used to claim to be.
At this point the Lib Dems only need to take 26 MPs in order to push the Tories into third place or 29 if you took the Tories and Reform together, and yes I know this is a mildly specious argument but under FPTP but there are 72 Lib Dem MPs and only 5 RefUK. However, Truss and now Jenrick saying they support Trump is absolutely lethal, totally lines them up with Farage in the Petin camp and could actually trigger a hard core of the Tories to defect since they completely loathe both Trump and Farage. Local Tories often get on well with local Lib Dems, and we could certainly see emergence of the Lib Dems as the centre right party that many Tories say they are or want to be (but are actually not and definitely would not be as allies of Trump).
Most LDs neither want nor would accept being a centre right party, the social democratic wing of the party would defect en masse to Labour if it tried as effectively happened in 2015 when Clegg's centre right LDs in Cameron's coalition govt got just 8% of the vote
It really takes a special kind of person to lecture someone who has been a member of the Liberals and Liberal Democrats for over 45 years, and who has been pretty active over much of that time, as a candidate, both Parliamentary and local, as an organiser and as a very regular conference attender about what the membership of the party is and what it is not.
I know my party and you, sir, do not.
You don't, you only know the Liberal wing of your party not the Social Democratic wing clearly.
If Orange Book Liberalism was so popular it would not have got just 8% of the vote in 2015 would it? The only examples of Liberal parties being the main centre right party in western nations are in Australia (where they have effectively always held that position in coalition with the conservative Nationals), Japan, where the LDP has been dominant for decades and arguably the Netherlands which is a much more socially liberal nation by culture than the UK is.
If the LDs became a centre right party the social democrats who are heirs of those like Jenkins and Williams and Owen who defected from Labour in the 1980s ie those who make up the Democrats part of the LDs would defect en masse back to Labour which under Starmer would be closer to the old SDP than a centre right Orange Book Liberal party would be
Much as I like you @hyufd, you really aren't right on this one and @Cicero is. We do know our party and you don't. There is no conflict within the LDs between Liberals and Social Democrats. Much of the time even we don't know which colleagues are which. I remember having this discussion at a LD party after the election where we were comparing opinions. I couldn't have told you before those discussions if other members were from one wing or the other, because we just don't have those wings even though some of us are clearly liberals and some of us are clearly social democrats.
Looking at the 2015 election result is daft. We didn't lose because we were Liberals and not Social Democrats. Nobody believes that. We lost because of the coalition and things like Tuition fees. If you asked any voters they couldn't have told you whether we were mainly Liberals or Social Democrats in 2015 and they couldn't now. Only anoraks like us know there is a difference.
And see my other post re being able to win more seats. Here is a bit of info for you. In Guildford in the build up to the election we knocked on 31,000 doors and sent out regular leaflets. During the election we knocked on 32,000 doors. That is nearly everyone twice. 13 leaflets or letters went out and several hundred posterboards went up during the election, although many of those letters were targeted so not to everyone.
There are plenty of Tory seats we could have done that in but didn't have the resources to do so. So we targeted ruthlessly. There are now the next batch of seats to go for and resources we can move from the last lot of targets we have won,
Now that may not happen. The Tories may recover and we may be defending ruthlessly and targeting nowhere. But if it stays the same we will be have many more Tory seats next time as well as some labour ones to go for.
History is on my side. For example, in 1945 the Liberals got just 9% on a centrist or even centre right liberal platform and the Liberals never got over 10% of the vote until Grimond got 11% in 1964, before falling back to 8.5% in 1966. In Feb 1974 Thorpe's Liberals did admittedly peak at 19% (though that was partly a result of his being more charismatic than Heath and Wilson) before falling to 13% under Steel in 1979 after Thorpe's scandals emerged.
Only the social democrat wing of the Labour Party leaving to form the SDP under Roy Jenkins and then forming the Alliance with the Liberals at the 1983 general election got the combined Liberals and SDP over 20% on a centre left platform to 25% and then 22% under Owen in 1987.
The merged parties which formed the LDs then never ceased to get under 15% of the voted from 1992 to 2010, peaking at 22% in 2005 under Charles Kennedy on an even left of Blair's Labour platform never mind just left of the Tories and 23% in 2010 when Clegg pledged to scrap tuition fees before moving right and backing increasing them in government as you say.
After going into coalition with the Tories in 2010 however the LDs collapsed to just 8% in 2015 and although they have got back over 10% since by appealing to hardline Remainers who opposed Brexit they have still not got over 15% again.
If the LDs became a centre right party they would also lose most of the Labour tactical votes that helped win them southern seats from the Tories last month and also have no chance in Labour seats Kennedy won in 2005
The Conservatives however have never polled lower than 30% in a General Election (we know they have in local elections and European parliamentary elections) until July 4th when they polled 24% and won 121 seats, their worst performance since the Reform Act of 1832 so applying historical parallels when we are in uncharted territory seems a little like hopecasting. The last time they polled anywhere near this (1997, 30.7% and 165 seats) they were out of Government for 13 years.
24% was still double the 12% the LDs got.
In 1997 Labour under Blair got 43%, 10% more than the 33% Labour under Starmer got
Your problem with that is that it illustrates two things - the potential for Tory revival at the next election, and the potential for oblivion.
Your opponents winning big without actually doing that well comes with a huge, flashing warning sign.
Only if the rightwing vote is effectively split again
What about the last few days makes you feel the right is coming together rather than splintering further?
Farage shifting to target working class Labour seats now and Jenrick, likely next Tory leader, shifting towards what Reform voters want to hear. Indeed you could well have Reform focusing on working class Labour seats the Tories normally can't reach and the Tories focusing on middle class Labour and LD seats Reform normally can't reach
Tories would be well advised to concentrate on trying to win seats they previously held for over 100 years, such was their defeat.
You get the impression the Tories still don’t get it.
Recent history suggest parties need years and several further defeats before they get it.
It was my second visit. My first was as a student. Going with family is a different experience. It's a very pretty city, but in trying to give the kids a bowdlerised highlights-in-one-day package on a baking day in August, it quickly starts to feel like every otger capital city: hot and crowded and peppered with angry Arabs and pride flags and American candy stores and graffiti and luxury stores and tat, and the beauty you came to see quickly fades into the background. Even an inspired lunch choice from oldest daughter brought only temporary respite. I mean, we had a nice day. But I was finding it hard to feel as well-disposed to the place as I did last time I visited.
And then, at oldest daughter's polite insistence, we did this. And it was terrifying and brilliant and turned the day into one I will never forget: https://youtu.be/GjgD0cfcmV0?si=DxwfR2xLb2flgUcP
It helps that this is in Noord Amsterdam - a fiveminute ferry ride away from central station, but completely different in feel and
That looks fun
Can I ask why you chose Holland and Amsterdam? It is not what it was
Because I'm not very adventurous and somewhat impecunious.
Holland, because: We have done Cornwall for the last 8 years. East side of the Camel estuary. And it is perfect, and I'm slightly sad not to be there, but we have done everything there now and one year's memories are starting to blur into another. And while I could spend all day on a good beach, that's not true of all my family. And my oldest won't necessarily be holidaying with us for many more years, and wants to see a bit of the world. But also, we're pasty northerners who don't do well in the heat, and flying in the summer holidays as a family of five is prohibitively expensive. And every time we've been to France it's been cold and wet - and while I try to be open minded about abroad I find France just far too French, Breton cider aside. And many people have recommended this spot to us - it's a holiday park within striking distance of the sea, with all sorts on site. It's genuinely good - has the best aquapark I've ever been to. I wouldn't rule out coming again. But holidaying in such a crowded corner of Europe does feel odd. And Amsterdam because we're here so may as well go and take a look. I have however solved the mystery of where all the families of five holiday. This place is full of them. I've been considering other Northern European destinations should we elect to do something similar next year: Germany and Poland on the Baltic coast, perhaps.
Understood. And all fair
But I think you’d love l’Aveyron. It is considerably cooler than the med - because altitude - but still gets the amazing sun. Think Cornwall on a perfect day. 26C then 16C at night - no rain
And if you do get hot you just dive in one of the rivers. Everyone does it. Then have a beer that you’ve cooled in the waters
I can honestly say in all my travels I have never so firmly felt: my god, this is the place to come for a family holiday
And rodez is pretty cheap to get to from the uk
I shall investigate and propose to the family for next year!
Did that neck of the woods a couple of decades back (year of the Concorde disaster, sadly). It was just the same back then.
The highlight was the bats emerging from the roof tiles of the farmhouse we rented, every evening at dusk.
Just for a bit of fun, regarding the Olympics Medal table, I assigned 3 points for a Gold, 2 points for a Silver, and 1 for a Bronze:
G S B Total points United States 81 70 32 183 China 75 46 17 138 France 39 34 21 94 Great Britain 36 34 20 90 Australia 54 24 11 89 Japan 36 12 13 61 South Korea 36 16 7 59 Italy 27 20 8 55 Netherlands 27 10 6 43 Germany 24 10 5 39
Remember, this is just for a bit of fun!
On that basis we are doing well
On the face of it GB had another shytshow in the Olympics today
BUT
Our 400m runner got a European record and was the best European performance in the Olympics since Viktor Markin 1980 (someone can check this)
In the cycling AUS were expected to win and again we did really well
Our chance of Top 3 medal table is gone now after AUS won loads of golds today, well done to them they deserve it, their best performance of all time?
And it's unlikely we will catch France. A few more gold medals in the cycling and maybe @KJH in the pentathlon and we can finish Top 5 which we would have taken at the start 👍
I'm assuming you have done this on purpose this time @londonpubman but as I said yesterday I am willing to give the heptathlon a go, but I am not willing to go through the sex change necessary to qualify. I suggest we leave it up to KJT.
It was my second visit. My first was as a student. Going with family is a different experience. It's a very pretty city, but in trying to give the kids a bowdlerised highlights-in-one-day package on a baking day in August, it quickly starts to feel like every otger capital city: hot and crowded and peppered with angry Arabs and pride flags and American candy stores and graffiti and luxury stores and tat, and the beauty you came to see quickly fades into the background. Even an inspired lunch choice from oldest daughter brought only temporary respite. I mean, we had a nice day. But I was finding it hard to feel as well-disposed to the place as I did last time I visited.
And then, at oldest daughter's polite insistence, we did this. And it was terrifying and brilliant and turned the day into one I will never forget: https://youtu.be/GjgD0cfcmV0?si=DxwfR2xLb2flgUcP
It helps that this is in Noord Amsterdam - a fiveminute ferry ride away from central station, but completely different in feel and
Go to Amsterdam in winter or late autumn.
Uncrowded.
Completely different.
The darkening light and maybe some fog adds to the atmosphere. Everywhere you look there are high windows with lights and candles. Empty canal sides.
It is pure noom.
My favourite time to visit Venice is the depths of Winter. No tourists to speak of - but breathtakingly pretty. Lead-black canals and brutal, eye-watering light.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
I just don't believe this narrative. The claims of 100 protests targeting addresses that contained numerous simple errors was dodgy as hell. Even at the worst of the protests over the weekend, you weren't getting 10,000s turning, so now you going to get 100 worth of protests numbers.
I think it is more that in the UK protests have historically died pretty rapidly when they turn violent, student fees, BLM, anti-COVID. I think it is more that far right have convinced a combination of far right, some concerned citizens wanting to protest and scallies looking for opportunity for some criminality. The middle group won't turn up when its being painted of being a riot from the get-go and the last lot will go home on their e-bikes if it is clear there aren't numbers to allow them to go looting.
It was my second visit. My first was as a student. Going with family is a different experience. It's a very pretty city, but in trying to give the kids a bowdlerised highlights-in-one-day package on a baking day in August, it quickly starts to feel like every otger capital city: hot and crowded and peppered with angry Arabs and pride flags and American candy stores and graffiti and luxury stores and tat, and the beauty you came to see quickly fades into the background. Even an inspired lunch choice from oldest daughter brought only temporary respite. I mean, we had a nice day. But I was finding it hard to feel as well-disposed to the place as I did last time I visited.
And then, at oldest daughter's polite insistence, we did this. And it was terrifying and brilliant and turned the day into one I will never forget: https://youtu.be/GjgD0cfcmV0?si=DxwfR2xLb2flgUcP
It helps that this is in Noord Amsterdam - a fiveminute ferry ride away from central station, but completely different in feel and
That looks fun
Can I ask why you chose Holland and Amsterdam? It is not what it was
Because I'm not very adventurous and somewhat impecunious.
Holland, because: We have done Cornwall for the last 8 years. East side of the Camel estuary. And it is perfect, and I'm slightly sad not to be there, but we have done everything there now and one year's memories are starting to blur into another. And while I could spend all day on a good beach, that's not true of all my family. And my oldest won't necessarily be holidaying with us for many more years, and wants to see a bit of the world. But also, we're pasty northerners who don't do well in the heat, and flying in the summer holidays as a family of five is prohibitively expensive. And every time we've been to France it's been cold and wet - and while I try to be open minded about abroad I find France just far too French, Breton cider aside. And many people have recommended this spot to us - it's a holiday park within striking distance of the sea, with all sorts on site. It's genuinely good - has the best aquapark I've ever been to. I wouldn't rule out coming again. But holidaying in such a crowded corner of Europe does feel odd. And Amsterdam because we're here so may as well go and take a look. I have however solved the mystery of where all the families of five holiday. This place is full of them. I've been considering other Northern European destinations should we elect to do something similar next year: Germany and Poland on the Baltic coast, perhaps.
Understood. And all fair
But I think you’d love l’Aveyron. It is considerably cooler than the med - because altitude - but still gets the amazing sun. Think Cornwall on a perfect day. 26C then 16C at night - no rain
And if you do get hot you just dive in one of the rivers. Everyone does it. Then have a beer that you’ve cooled in the waters
I can honestly say in all my travels I have never so firmly felt: my god, this is the place to come for a family holiday
And rodez is pretty cheap to get to from the uk
I shall investigate and propose to the family for next year!
Bonne chance!
You have whet my appetite as well. As I mentioned some days ago I was there (twice) about 25 years ago and enjoyed it and you are making me think of returning. I am also thinking of the Midi canal which I haven't done.
Currently planning however a trip to Portugal again and Seville/Cordoba/Granada this September and October.
Any recommendations appreciated.
Nevertheless the Netherlands has some cracking towns. On modern urban design, they’re the experts, and their historic town centres are very attractive. It’s just the countryside all around that is as boring as ****.
Politics UK @PolitlcsUK 🚨 NEW: There have been no reports of riots tonight as thousands of anti-racist protesters significantly outnumber anti-immigration demonstrators across the country
Just for a bit of fun, regarding the Olympics Medal table, I assigned 3 points for a Gold, 2 points for a Silver, and 1 for a Bronze:
G S B Total points United States 81 70 32 183 China 75 46 17 138 France 39 34 21 94 Great Britain 36 34 20 90 Australia 54 24 11 89 Japan 36 12 13 61 South Korea 36 16 7 59 Italy 27 20 8 55 Netherlands 27 10 6 43 Germany 24 10 5 39
Remember, this is just for a bit of fun!
On that basis we are doing well
On the face of it GB had another shytshow in the Olympics today
BUT
Our 400m runner got a European record and was the best European performance in the Olympics since Viktor Markin 1980 (someone can check this)
In the cycling AUS were expected to win and again we did really well
Our chance of Top 3 medal table is gone now after AUS won loads of golds today, well done to them they deserve it, their best performance of all time?
And it's unlikely we will catch France. A few more gold medals in the cycling and maybe @KJH in the pentathlon and we can finish Top 5 which we would have taken at the start 👍
Lol Heptathlon shows how old I am 😈
I nearly mentioned that as well as you putting me forward for the Olympics, but thought that might be rubbing salt into the wound.
Such a shame. Maybe time to get back to the day job of trying to find miserable conscripts for the meatgrinder of death?
In what way? Putin pumps both sides. It is about division and sowing narratives of grievance. Plenty of that has been sowed, mainstream media discussing two tier policing, issue of immigration has again become very high profile, etc.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
It was my second visit. My first was as a student. Going with family is a different experience. It's a very pretty city, but in trying to give the kids a bowdlerised highlights-in-one-day package on a baking day in August, it quickly starts to feel like every otger capital city: hot and crowded and peppered with angry Arabs and pride flags and American candy stores and graffiti and luxury stores and tat, and the beauty you came to see quickly fades into the background. Even an inspired lunch choice from oldest daughter brought only temporary respite. I mean, we had a nice day. But I was finding it hard to feel as well-disposed to the place as I did last time I visited.
And then, at oldest daughter's polite insistence, we did this. And it was terrifying and brilliant and turned the day into one I will never forget: https://youtu.be/GjgD0cfcmV0?si=DxwfR2xLb2flgUcP
It helps that this is in Noord Amsterdam - a fiveminute ferry ride away from central station, but completely different in feel and
Go to Amsterdam in winter or late autumn.
Uncrowded.
Completely different.
The darkening light and maybe some fog adds to the atmosphere. Everywhere you look there are high windows with lights and candles. Empty canal sides.
It is pure noom.
My favourite time to visit Venice is the depths of Winter. No tourists to speak of - but breathtakingly pretty. Lead-black canals and brutal, eye-watering light.
We're all focused on the riots here but it should be mentioned that Ukraine has launched an offensive into Kursk. Whether they intend to stay or will be able to for long isn't clear. Previous incursions saw them leave pretty quickly. Does seem to be some panic on the Russian side going on.
Am I alone in absolutely adoring picnics? I believe they are one of the quickest routes to genuine happiness, and are only challenged by sex or the subtler opiates
You are with people you love, and like to talk to. You find the right spot. The sun is shining. Life is good. The view is ace. You lay down your picnic equipment - gotta have layers! - and you feast on fine cheese, good bread, tomatoes, ham, salamis, fruit, berries, and wine, and it all costs about a third of the price of a good restaurant and is easily twice as enjoyable and you watch the sun set over the hills and the moon rise over the chateau, AND you get to use complex knives and tools which are very satisfying for adult males so it is quite alpha
A great picnic is vastly more memorable and satisfying that a posh restaurant meal. I cannot even remember the meals my older daughter and I had in l'Aveyron, but we had those two spellbinding picnics and we talked about life and the world and the universe as the stars came out and I will cherish those memories till I die
Am I alone in absolutely adoring picnics? I believe they are one of the quickest routes to genuine happiness, and are only challenged by sex or the subtler opiates
You are with people you love, and like to talk to. You find the right spot. The sun is shining. Life is good. The view is ace. You lay down your picnic equipment - gotta have layers! - and you feast on fine cheese, good bread, tomatoes, ham, salamis, fruit, berries, and wine, and it all costs about a third of the price of a good restaurant and is easily twice as enjoyable and you watch the sun set over the hills and the moon rise over the chateau, AND you get to use complex knives and tools which are very satisfying for adult males so it is quite alpha
A great picnic is vastly more memorable and satisfying that a posh restaurant meal. I cannot even remember the meals my older daughter and I had in l'Aveyron, but we had those two spellbinding picnics and we talked about life and the world and the universe as the stars came out and I will cherish those memories till I die
Ever fallen asleep after a picnic? It's the best. Especially if you wake up only because you are cold, and it's much later than you think.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
Jenrick turned up for a very quickly arranged Chinese dinner last night. Fluent presentation but the usual hard-right shtick to entice the membership. Hey that worked so well in 1997-2005. I berated him for his open support for Trump (well, what a surprise) to which he replied that the GOP is our "sister party".
No chance of his getting my vote but I fear he'll win. What then after almost 50 years party membership?
Next week it's drinkkies with Mel.
So not only does he support Trump, but he does so for a facile reason. If he is the best the Conservatives can come up with they really might be toast.
More to the point, when you go through the CVs of the new Lib Dem MPs, Lots of ex military, lots of really impressive academic, business, community and local credentials... these are the kinds of MPs who could easily have been conservative. Then you think well, it the Tories go down the Reform/Populist rabbit hole there is an actual conservative party to vote for- moderate decent, pragmatic, hard working, reasonable and sensible. Everything that the Tories used to claim to be.
At this point the Lib Dems only need to take 26 MPs in order to push the Tories into third place or 29 if you took the Tories and Reform together, and yes I know this is a mildly specious argument but under FPTP but there are 72 Lib Dem MPs and only 5 RefUK. However, Truss and now Jenrick saying they support Trump is absolutely lethal, totally lines them up with Farage in the Petin camp and could actually trigger a hard core of the Tories to defect since they completely loathe both Trump and Farage. Local Tories often get on well with local Lib Dems, and we could certainly see emergence of the Lib Dems as the centre right party that many Tories say they are or want to be (but are actually not and definitely would not be as allies of Trump).
Most LDs neither want nor would accept being a centre right party, the social democratic wing of the party would defect en masse to Labour if it tried as effectively happened in 2015 when Clegg's centre right LDs in Cameron's coalition govt got just 8% of the vote
It really takes a special kind of person to lecture someone who has been a member of the Liberals and Liberal Democrats for over 45 years, and who has been pretty active over much of that time, as a candidate, both Parliamentary and local, as an organiser and as a very regular conference attender about what the membership of the party is and what it is not.
I know my party and you, sir, do not.
You don't, you only know the Liberal wing of your party not the Social Democratic wing clearly.
If Orange Book Liberalism was so popular it would not have got just 8% of the vote in 2015 would it? The only examples of Liberal parties being the main centre right party in western nations are in Australia (where they have effectively always held that position in coalition with the conservative Nationals), Japan, where the LDP has been dominant for decades and arguably the Netherlands which is a much more socially liberal nation by culture than the UK is.
If the LDs became a centre right party the social democrats who are heirs of those like Jenkins and Williams and Owen who defected from Labour in the 1980s ie those who make up the Democrats part of the LDs would defect en masse back to Labour which under Starmer would be closer to the old SDP than a centre right Orange Book Liberal party would be
Much as I like you @hyufd, you really aren't right on this one and @Cicero is. We do know our party and you don't. There is no conflict within the LDs between Liberals and Social Democrats. Much of the time even we don't know which colleagues are which. I remember having this discussion at a LD party after the election where we were comparing opinions. I couldn't have told you before those discussions if other members were from one wing or the other, because we just don't have those wings even though some of us are clearly liberals and some of us are clearly social democrats.
Looking at the 2015 election result is daft. We didn't lose because we were Liberals and not Social Democrats. Nobody believes that. We lost because of the coalition and things like Tuition fees. If you asked any voters they couldn't have told you whether we were mainly Liberals or Social Democrats in 2015 and they couldn't now. Only anoraks like us know there is a difference.
And see my other post re being able to win more seats. Here is a bit of info for you. In Guildford in the build up to the election we knocked on 31,000 doors and sent out regular leaflets. During the election we knocked on 32,000 doors. That is nearly everyone twice. 13 leaflets or letters went out and several hundred posterboards went up during the election, although many of those letters were targeted so not to everyone.
There are plenty of Tory seats we could have done that in but didn't have the resources to do so. So we targeted ruthlessly. There are now the next batch of seats to go for and resources we can move from the last lot of targets we have won,
Now that may not happen. The Tories may recover and we may be defending ruthlessly and targeting nowhere. But if it stays the same we will be have many more Tory seats next time as well as some labour ones to go for.
History is on my side. For example, in 1945 the Liberals got just 9% on a centrist or even centre right liberal platform and the Liberals never got over 10% of the vote until Grimond got 11% in 1964, before falling back to 8.5% in 1966. In Feb 1974 Thorpe's Liberals did admittedly peak at 19% (though that was partly a result of his being more charismatic than Heath and Wilson) before falling to 13% under Steel in 1979 after Thorpe's scandals emerged.
Only the social democrat wing of the Labour Party leaving to form the SDP under Roy Jenkins and then forming the Alliance with the Liberals at the 1983 general election got the combined Liberals and SDP over 20% on a centre left platform to 25% and then 22% under Owen in 1987.
The merged parties which formed the LDs then never ceased to get under 15% of the voted from 1992 to 2010, peaking at 22% in 2005 under Charles Kennedy on an even left of Blair's Labour platform never mind just left of the Tories and 23% in 2010 when Clegg pledged to scrap tuition fees before moving right and backing increasing them in government as you say.
After going into coalition with the Tories in 2010 however the LDs collapsed to just 8% in 2015 and although they have got back over 10% since by appealing to hardline Remainers who opposed Brexit they have still not got over 15% again.
If the LDs became a centre right party they would also lose most of the Labour tactical votes that helped win them southern seats from the Tories last month and also have no chance in Labour seats Kennedy won in 2005
The Conservatives however have never polled lower than 30% in a General Election (we know they have in local elections and European parliamentary elections) until July 4th when they polled 24% and won 121 seats, their worst performance since the Reform Act of 1832 so applying historical parallels when we are in uncharted territory seems a little like hopecasting. The last time they polled anywhere near this (1997, 30.7% and 165 seats) they were out of Government for 13 years.
24% was still double the 12% the LDs got.
In 1997 Labour under Blair got 43%, 10% more than the 33% Labour under Starmer got
Your problem with that is that it illustrates two things - the potential for Tory revival at the next election, and the potential for oblivion.
Your opponents winning big without actually doing that well comes with a huge, flashing warning sign.
Only if the rightwing vote is effectively split again
What about the last few days makes you feel the right is coming together rather than splintering further?
Farage shifting to target working class Labour seats now and Jenrick, likely next Tory leader, shifting towards what Reform voters want to hear. Indeed you could well have Reform focusing on working class Labour seats the Tories normally can't reach and the Tories focusing on middle class Labour and LD seats Reform normally can't reach
Tories would be well advised to concentrate on trying to win seats they previously held for over 100 years, such was their defeat.
You get the impression the Tories still don’t get it.
Recent history suggest parties need years and several further defeats before they get it.
Depends on the economy, if Labour muck it up (and immigration) the Tories could be back in 5 years or so as they were in 1979 after losing power in 1974 and 1970 after losing power in 1964
Just for a bit of fun, regarding the Olympics Medal table, I assigned 3 points for a Gold, 2 points for a Silver, and 1 for a Bronze:
G S B Total points United States 81 70 32 183 China 75 46 17 138 France 39 34 21 94 Great Britain 36 34 20 90 Australia 54 24 11 89 Japan 36 12 13 61 South Korea 36 16 7 59 Italy 27 20 8 55 Netherlands 27 10 6 43 Germany 24 10 5 39
Remember, this is just for a bit of fun!
On that basis we are doing well
On the face of it GB had another shytshow in the Olympics today
BUT
Our 400m runner got a European record and was the best European performance in the Olympics since Viktor Markin 1980 (someone can check this)
In the cycling AUS were expected to win and again we did really well
Our chance of Top 3 medal table is gone now after AUS won loads of golds today, well done to them they deserve it, their best performance of all time?
And it's unlikely we will catch France. A few more gold medals in the cycling and maybe @KJH in the pentathlon and we can finish Top 5 which we would have taken at the start 👍
I'm assuming you have done this on purpose this time @londonpubman but as I said yesterday I am willing to give the heptathlon a go, but I am not willing to go through the sex change necessary to qualify. I suggest we leave it up to KJT.
Am I alone in absolutely adoring picnics? I believe they are one of the quickest routes to genuine happiness, and are only challenged by sex or the subtler opiates
You are with people you love, and like to talk to. You find the right spot. The sun is shining. Life is good. The view is ace. You lay down your picnic equipment - gotta have layers! - and you feast on fine cheese, good bread, tomatoes, ham, salamis, fruit, berries, and wine, and it all costs about a third of the price of a good restaurant and is easily twice as enjoyable and you watch the sun set over the hills and the moon rise over the chateau, AND you get to use complex knives and tools which are very satisfying for adult males so it is quite alpha
A great picnic is vastly more memorable and satisfying that a posh restaurant meal. I cannot even remember the meals my older daughter and I had in l'Aveyron, but we had those two spellbinding picnics and we talked about life and the world and the universe as the stars came out and I will cherish those memories till I die
Ever fallen asleep after a picnic? It's the best. Especially if you wake up only because you are cold, and it's much later than you think.
I have! Indeed in quite alarming circumstances
But the fact I remember them so vividly goes to show. Picnics are fucking brilliant
It's that intoxicating mix of fresh air and walks and greenery and good food and wine and human company,under the sun: dejeuner sur l'herbe
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
Well the polling done on this wasn't great for Starmer and seemed to suggest that the public does have concerns.
Personally, I think his response was fine, I think he should have also (without false equivalence) said no vigilantes, that isn't the way forward, lets the police do their job. But also, it is somewhat out of his control in the very short term, if 1000s want to go onto the street, he can't personally stop them, he has to hope the police manage the situation. In 2011, the police were very poor for several days and totally lost control, this time, they seem to have managed things better under difficult circumstances and the situation has never become one where they have had to just let rioters do their thing for hours on end.
Am I alone in absolutely adoring picnics? I believe they are one of the quickest routes to genuine happiness, and are only challenged by sex or the subtler opiates
You are with people you love, and like to talk to. You find the right spot. The sun is shining. Life is good. The view is ace. You lay down your picnic equipment - gotta have layers! - and you feast on fine cheese, good bread, tomatoes, ham, salamis, fruit, berries, and wine, and it all costs about a third of the price of a good restaurant and is easily twice as enjoyable and you watch the sun set over the hills and the moon rise over the chateau, AND you get to use complex knives and tools which are very satisfying for adult males so it is quite alpha
A great picnic is vastly more memorable and satisfying that a posh restaurant meal. I cannot even remember the meals my older daughter and I had in l'Aveyron, but we had those two spellbinding picnics and we talked about life and the world and the universe as the stars came out and I will cherish those memories till I die
Ever fallen asleep after a picnic? It's the best. Especially if you wake up only because you are cold, and it's much later than you think.
I have! Indeed in quite alarming circumstances
But the fact I remember them so vividly goes to show. Picnics are fucking brilliant
It's that intoxicating mix of fresh air and walks and greenery and good food and wine and human company,under the sun: dejeuner sur l'herbe
As its best it beats any restaurant, at any time
I've been on some rubbish picnics. Two-tier picnics.
We're all focused on the riots here but it should be mentioned that Ukraine has launched an offensive into Kursk. Whether they intend to stay or will be able to for long isn't clear. Previous incursions saw them leave pretty quickly. Does seem to be some panic on the Russian side going on.
Some time ago on this forum, whenever there was much talk of the Ukrainian counter offensive, I suggested that rather than drive south and through a considerable set of defences, the Ukrainians should drive East into Russia then hook south back into Ukraine and right up the arse of the Russian lines. It was well known that the Russians hadnt much deployed on many parts of the border.
The problem I felt was that the Americans might have a problem with it. Some in the Biden adminstration definitely do but it appears they arent asking questions in public right now. Europe has done the Ukrainians a favour and come out saying its all fair, which leaves the Americans as outflanked as the Russians may be in the coming days.
What we dont know is whether the Ukrainians are going to do the hook, aim to create a massive diversion and turn back, cut the railway & road supply hub that they have nearly reached or a combination. Its unclear what the size of forces is but I have seen suggestions that is 2+ brigades.
Am I alone in absolutely adoring picnics? I believe they are one of the quickest routes to genuine happiness, and are only challenged by sex or the subtler opiates
You are with people you love, and like to talk to. You find the right spot. The sun is shining. Life is good. The view is ace. You lay down your picnic equipment - gotta have layers! - and you feast on fine cheese, good bread, tomatoes, ham, salamis, fruit, berries, and wine, and it all costs about a third of the price of a good restaurant and is easily twice as enjoyable and you watch the sun set over the hills and the moon rise over the chateau, AND you get to use complex knives and tools which are very satisfying for adult males so it is quite alpha
A great picnic is vastly more memorable and satisfying that a posh restaurant meal. I cannot even remember the meals my older daughter and I had in l'Aveyron, but we had those two spellbinding picnics and we talked about life and the world and the universe as the stars came out and I will cherish those memories till I die
Did you do any as a kid ? That’s some of my best memories - so you did your daughter a solid there.
We're all focused on the riots here but it should be mentioned that Ukraine has launched an offensive into Kursk. Whether they intend to stay or will be able to for long isn't clear. Previous incursions saw them leave pretty quickly. Does seem to be some panic on the Russian side going on.
Some time ago on this forum, whenever there was much talk of the Ukrainian counter offensive, I suggested that rather than drive south and through a considerable set of defences, the Ukrtainians should drive East into Russia then hook south back into Ukraine and right up the arse of the Russian lines. It was well known that the Russians hadnt much deployed on many parts of the border.
The problem I felt was that the Americans might have a problem with it. Some in the Biden adminstration definitely do but it appears they arent asking questions in public right now. Europe has done the Ukrainians a favour and come out saying its all fair, which leaves the Americans as outflanked as the Russians may be in the coming days.
What we dont know is whether the Ukrainians are going to do the hook, aim to create a massive diversion and turn back, cut the railway & road supply hub that they have nearly reached or a combination. Its unclear what the size of forces is but I have seen suggestions that is 2+ brigades.
If it is that big, its no diversion.
The US have said outright, and publicly that it’s Ukraine’s business not theirs. Which is quite the change from a while back.
Looks like huge numbers of police and anti-fascist protestors turned up today/tonight, but hardly any far-right protestors showed up. Maybe the whole thing was fake on their part.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
Am I alone in absolutely adoring picnics? I believe they are one of the quickest routes to genuine happiness, and are only challenged by sex or the subtler opiates
You are with people you love, and like to talk to. You find the right spot. The sun is shining. Life is good. The view is ace. You lay down your picnic equipment - gotta have layers! - and you feast on fine cheese, good bread, tomatoes, ham, salamis, fruit, berries, and wine, and it all costs about a third of the price of a good restaurant and is easily twice as enjoyable and you watch the sun set over the hills and the moon rise over the chateau, AND you get to use complex knives and tools which are very satisfying for adult males so it is quite alpha
A great picnic is vastly more memorable and satisfying that a posh restaurant meal. I cannot even remember the meals my older daughter and I had in l'Aveyron, but we had those two spellbinding picnics and we talked about life and the world and the universe as the stars came out and I will cherish those memories till I die
Did you do any as a kid ? That’s some of my best memories - so you did your daughter a solid there.
I did a couple as a child, but not majorly, my parents weren't very outdoorsy. I have made sure I've done a lot with both my daughters, and I am very pleased to do have done so
As you say. they are bankable memories, for sure: there is some intrinsic magic to them, I am not sure what it is. Perhaps an atavistic memory of hunter gatherer feasting??
There’s some daft chat that Ukraine used F16s to shoot down KA52 helos around the offensive. Seems implausible.
Its feasible, they have the kit, but we have no clarity of forward deployment of those birds.
Feasible, but would they risk them like that ?
It can be beyond visual range, they have been supplied with the relevant missiles, but bear in mind that the Ukrainians have put a lot of effort into SEAD in the last lot of weeks, you assume to create better conditions for their new stuff to operate. No point in patrolling around Lviv or Kiev, Russian aircraft dont fly near there.
Am I alone in absolutely adoring picnics? I believe they are one of the quickest routes to genuine happiness, and are only challenged by sex or the subtler opiates
You are with people you love, and like to talk to. You find the right spot. The sun is shining. Life is good. The view is ace. You lay down your picnic equipment - gotta have layers! - and you feast on fine cheese, good bread, tomatoes, ham, salamis, fruit, berries, and wine, and it all costs about a third of the price of a good restaurant and is easily twice as enjoyable and you watch the sun set over the hills and the moon rise over the chateau, AND you get to use complex knives and tools which are very satisfying for adult males so it is quite alpha
A great picnic is vastly more memorable and satisfying that a posh restaurant meal. I cannot even remember the meals my older daughter and I had in l'Aveyron, but we had those two spellbinding picnics and we talked about life and the world and the universe as the stars came out and I will cherish those memories till I die
Did you do any as a kid ? That’s some of my best memories - so you did your daughter a solid there.
I did a couple as a child, but not majorly, my parents weren't very outdoorsy. I have made sure I've done a lot with both my daughters, and I am very pleased to do have done so
As you say. they are bankable memories, for sure: there is some intrinsic magic to them, I am not sure what it is. Perhaps an atavistic memory of hunter gatherer feasting??
Partly that it’s just you. No waiters etc - just family or friends or lovers. So solitude is necessary; picnics in crowded locations aren’t the same.
According to international law, Ukraine has a legal right to defend itself, including striking an aggressor on its territory, said European Commission spokesman Peter Stano regarding the events in the Kursk https://x.com/Azovsouth/status/1821232486330069370
Great scenes on TV tonight of the anti racists. It looks like on top of everything else SKS has managed to restore our national pride. Well done him and well done the police
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
I'd wait. If the co-ordination & strategic leadership is there, melting away for a bit is part of what you do, in fact its essential to push the pedal, come off it and change tactics. Im not sure those qualities or indeed a willingness to push more serious concentrated violence are in place but we arent going to find out in a week, you measure this thing in months.
Am I alone in absolutely adoring picnics? I believe they are one of the quickest routes to genuine happiness, and are only challenged by sex or the subtler opiates
You are with people you love, and like to talk to. You find the right spot. The sun is shining. Life is good. The view is ace. You lay down your picnic equipment - gotta have layers! - and you feast on fine cheese, good bread, tomatoes, ham, salamis, fruit, berries, and wine, and it all costs about a third of the price of a good restaurant and is easily twice as enjoyable and you watch the sun set over the hills and the moon rise over the chateau, AND you get to use complex knives and tools which are very satisfying for adult males so it is quite alpha
A great picnic is vastly more memorable and satisfying that a posh restaurant meal. I cannot even remember the meals my older daughter and I had in l'Aveyron, but we had those two spellbinding picnics and we talked about life and the world and the universe as the stars came out and I will cherish those memories till I die
Haven't had a picnic for ages. Used to do them all the time, ie. 1990s.
There’s some daft chat that Ukraine used F16s to shoot down KA52 helos around the offensive. Seems implausible.
Its feasible, they have the kit, but we have no clarity of forward deployment of those birds.
Feasible, but would they risk them like that ?
It can be beyond visual range, they have been supplied with the relevant missiles, but bear in mind that the Ukrainians have put a lot of effort into SEAD in the last lot of weeks, you assume to create better conditions for their new stuff to operate. No point in patrolling around Lviv or Kiev, Russian aircraft dont fly near there.
That’s true - though that effort has been concentrated away from where the assault is taking place. And the AIM 120B, which I think is what they’ve been given (?), isn’t that long range.
I’d thought the prime task for the new kit was to be countering the aircraft releasing glide bombs at the front line.
Caitlin Moran @caitlinmoran · 2h Can't remember the last time Twitter made me so happy - all the footage, from across the country, of peaceful anti-racist protests. Streets jammed. Poetic that the opposite of civil war is all over Musk's platform.
Great scenes on TV tonight of the anti racists. It looks like on top of everything else SKS has managed to restore our national pride. Well done him and well done the police
Early days but Elon's civil war is looking as solid as his Tesla company's share price.
Am I alone in absolutely adoring picnics? I believe they are one of the quickest routes to genuine happiness, and are only challenged by sex or the subtler opiates
You are with people you love, and like to talk to. You find the right spot. The sun is shining. Life is good. The view is ace. You lay down your picnic equipment - gotta have layers! - and you feast on fine cheese, good bread, tomatoes, ham, salamis, fruit, berries, and wine, and it all costs about a third of the price of a good restaurant and is easily twice as enjoyable and you watch the sun set over the hills and the moon rise over the chateau, AND you get to use complex knives and tools which are very satisfying for adult males so it is quite alpha
A great picnic is vastly more memorable and satisfying that a posh restaurant meal. I cannot even remember the meals my older daughter and I had in l'Aveyron, but we had those two spellbinding picnics and we talked about life and the world and the universe as the stars came out and I will cherish those memories till I die
Ever fallen asleep after a picnic? It's the best. Especially if you wake up only because you are cold, and it's much later than you think.
I have! Indeed in quite alarming circumstances
But the fact I remember them so vividly goes to show. Picnics are fucking brilliant
It's that intoxicating mix of fresh air and walks and greenery and good food and wine and human company,under the sun: dejeuner sur l'herbe
As its best it beats any restaurant, at any time
I've never liked picnics myself as I'm a bit funny about warm food (anything cheese or meat based I like straight out of the fridge). However I do adore garden parties. Some of my happiest memories are sitting in a friend's garden getting slowly drunk around a fire pit.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The hope not hate expert was quoted that there wasn't much chatter on the far right boards they monitor about tonight.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
I'd wait. If the co-ordination & strategic leadership is there, melting away for a bit is part of what you do, in fact its essential to push the pedal, come off it and change tactics. Im not sure those qualities or indeed a willingness to push more serious concentrated violence are in place but we arent going to find out in a week, you measure this thing in months.
I am far from convinced the far right is that well organised or that large in number*. I have heard security experts talk in the recent past of being in the low 100s of people who pose serious terrorist threat. We have had a number of previous attempts with the anti-Palestine protests etc and they never garner many people. I think it is more they caught the zeitgeist of pissed off people about recent events, lots of useful idiots and scallies, but the general public melts away pretty quickly when protests get violent.
* I am talking about hardcore people who want a violent race war, not people who are rather racist / ignorant.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
The yobs can tell everyone who will listen all about their "legitimate concerns" during the three year stretch in a four person one bucket shithole cell in Wandsworth.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
I'd wait. If the co-ordination & strategic leadership is there, melting away for a bit is part of what you do, in fact its essential to push the pedal, come off it and change tactics. Im not sure those qualities or indeed a willingness to push more serious concentrated violence are in place but we arent going to find out in a week, you measure this thing in months.
I am far from convinced the far right is that well organised or that large in number. I have heard security experts talk in the recent past of being in the low 100s of people who pose serious terrorist threat. We have had a number of previous attempts with the anti-Palestine protests etc and they never garner many people. I think it is more they caught the zeitgeist of pissed off people about recent events, lots of useful idiots and scallies, but the general public melts away pretty quickly when protests get violent.
Yep.
The media for example keep on about EDL. But according to anti-nazi like Hope Not Hate it basically no longer exists as a functioning org.
The splinter cells have like a dozen activists with a couple of leading lights who do all the work.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
I'd wait. If the co-ordination & strategic leadership is there, melting away for a bit is part of what you do, in fact its essential to push the pedal, come off it and change tactics. Im not sure those qualities or indeed a willingness to push more serious concentrated violence are in place but we arent going to find out in a week, you measure this thing in months.
I am far from convinced the far right is that well organised or that large in number. I have heard security experts talk in the recent past of being in the low 100s of people who pose serious terrorist threat. We have had a number of previous attempts with the anti-Palestine protests etc and they never garner many people. I think it is more they caught the zeitgeist of pissed off people about recent events, lots of useful idiots and scallies, but the general public melts away pretty quickly when protests get violent.
Yep.
The media for example keep on about EDL. But according to anti-nazi like Hope Not Hate it basically no longer exists as a functioning org.
The splinter cells have like a dozen activists with a couple of leading lights who do all the work.
Also if you are savvy you can make it pay being just being on the edge of things. You can turn it into a quality grift. Old Tommy two names lives a life of luxury, I heard him boasting on some podcast a few months ago how he has been doing wellness retreats with loads of posh middle class women that didn't realise who he was and appears to live in the sunshine in Europe somewhere all year round now.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
I'd wait. If the co-ordination & strategic leadership is there, melting away for a bit is part of what you do, in fact its essential to push the pedal, come off it and change tactics. Im not sure those qualities or indeed a willingness to push more serious concentrated violence are in place but we arent going to find out in a week, you measure this thing in months.
I am far from convinced the far right is that well organised or that large in number. I have heard security experts talk in the recent past of being in the low 100s of people who pose serious terrorist threat. We have had a number of previous attempts with the anti-Palestine protests etc and they never garner many people. I think it is more they caught the zeitgeist of pissed off people about recent events, lots of useful idiots and scallies, but the general public melts away pretty quickly when protests get violent.
Yep.
The media for example keep on about EDL. But according to anti-nazi like Hope Not Hate it basically no longer exists as a functioning org.
The splinter cells have like a dozen activists with a couple of leading lights who do all the work.
Also if you are savvy you can make it pay being just being on the edge of things. You can turn it into a quality grift. Old Tommy two names lives a life of luxury, I heard him boasting on some podcast a few months ago how he has been doing wellness retreats with loads of posh middle women that didn't realise who he was.
There’s some daft chat that Ukraine used F16s to shoot down KA52 helos around the offensive. Seems implausible.
Its feasible, they have the kit, but we have no clarity of forward deployment of those birds.
Feasible, but would they risk them like that ?
It can be beyond visual range, they have been supplied with the relevant missiles, but bear in mind that the Ukrainians have put a lot of effort into SEAD in the last lot of weeks, you assume to create better conditions for their new stuff to operate. No point in patrolling around Lviv or Kiev, Russian aircraft dont fly near there.
That’s true - though that effort has been concentrated away from where the assault is taking place. And the AIM 120B, which I think is what they’ve been given (?), isn’t that long range.
I’d thought the prime task for the new kit was to be countering the aircraft releasing glide bombs at the front line.
Which means they need to be deployed forward.
What is happening in Kursk (and rumours are of an incurison into Belgorod as well) is remarkably vague as are its actual objectives. If its a diversion, its high risk and potentially costly commit. If its designed to just stick the tongue out its completely stupid to waste resources. If its a hinge for a wider offensive then its potentially worth it. Reports suggest anything from 400 to 3000+ Ukrainians involved which is a rather large variation. The Ukrainian OPSEC, its fair to say has been really good, all the reports appear to be Russian-side.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
I'd wait. If the co-ordination & strategic leadership is there, melting away for a bit is part of what you do, in fact its essential to push the pedal, come off it and change tactics. Im not sure those qualities or indeed a willingness to push more serious concentrated violence are in place but we arent going to find out in a week, you measure this thing in months.
I am far from convinced the far right is that well organised or that large in number. I have heard security experts talk in the recent past of being in the low 100s of people who pose serious terrorist threat. We have had a number of previous attempts with the anti-Palestine protests etc and they never garner many people. I think it is more they caught the zeitgeist of pissed off people about recent events, lots of useful idiots and scallies, but the general public melts away pretty quickly when protests get violent.
Yep.
The media for example keep on about EDL. But according to anti-nazi like Hope Not Hate it basically no longer exists as a functioning org.
The splinter cells have like a dozen activists with a couple of leading lights who do all the work.
Also if you are savvy you can make it pay being just being on the edge of things. You can turn it into a quality grift. Old Tommy two names lives a life of luxury, I heard him boasting on some podcast a few months ago how he has been doing wellness retreats with loads of posh middle women that didn't realise who he was.
He's a classic snake oil grifter.
I am not sure we will ever really know the truth about him. By that I mean, he doesn't appear to have had a job for a very very long time, but ended up with a million quid house and seemingly limitless money. He gets sued for £100k and it doesn't seem to change anything. There is the odd story like Rebel news paid him £100k a year to be a journalist and he claims he sold loads of books / gets donations. But something never quite adds up. Divorced, bankrupt, yet seamlessly moves abroad, goes on posho wellness retreats and £500 a night 5* star hotels in Greece, a life that people on really good money would struggle to afford.
Tldr: Matt Goodwin has shot himself in the kneecaps. He has left his professorship for full-time Substacking and is no longer a prof nor an academic.
We did this down thread, Goodwin tweeted to say this isn't true.
Also even if he has, he claims he has 1000s of paid subs to his substack (and I can believe it, substack is quietly wildly successful for a lot of people), that will be £50k+/month easily. Would you teach a load of shitty undergrads at a middle tier uni when you can make £600k a year writing a few articles. I bet he makes another 6 figures a year from media appearances.
No normal journalist is making that. Owen Jones is like the left wing version, he makes way more money now than he ever did writing for the Guardian.
Substack is like the OnlyFans for nerds. It is well known there are people making millions writing their little blogs on there.
Tldr: Matt Goodwin has shot himself in the kneecaps. He has left his professorship for full-time Substacking and is no longer a prof nor an academic.
We did this down thread, Goodwin tweeted to say this isn't true.
Also even if he has, he claims he has 1000s of paid subs to his substack (and I can believe it, substack is quietly wildly successful for a lot of people), that will be £50k+/month easily. Would you teach a load of shitty undergrads at a middle tier uni when you can make £600k a year writing a few articles. I bet he makes another 6 figures a year from media appearances.
No normal journalist is making that. Owen Jones is like the left wing version, he makes way more money now than he ever did writing for the Guardian.
Substack is like the OnlyFans for nerds. It is well known there are people making millions writing their little blogs on there.
I was a subscriber of his substack for a while, although not now.
Tldr: Matt Goodwin has shot himself in the kneecaps. He has left his professorship for full-time Substacking and is no longer a prof nor an academic.
We did this down thread, Goodwin tweeted to say this isn't true.
Also even if he has, he claims he has 1000s of paid subs to his substack (and I can believe it, substack is quietly wildly successful for a lot of people), that will be £50k+/month easily. Would you teach a load of shitty undergrads at a middle tier uni when you can make £600k a year writing a few articles. I bet he makes another 6 figures a year from media appearances.
No normal journalist is making that. Owen Jones is like the left wing version, he makes way more money now than he ever did writing for the Guardian.
Substack is like the OnlyFans for nerds. It is well known there are people making millions writing their little blogs on there.
I was a subscriber of his substack for a while, although not now.
I am sure there is probably a high turnover of subs (like all these things) and probably a limited window where people are actually interested in what you have to say unless you are providing really specialist advice about say finance. However, like any of these influencers, if you can spin it into the big bucks, you ride that wave to the max and probably set for life.
Tldr: Matt Goodwin has shot himself in the kneecaps. He has left his professorship for full-time Substacking and is no longer a prof nor an academic.
We did this down thread, Goodwin tweeted to say this isn't true.
Also even if he has, he claims he has 1000s of paid subs to his substack (and I can believe it, substack is quietly wildly successful for a lot of people), that will be £50k+/month easily. Would you teach a load of shitty undergrads at a middle tier uni when you can make £600k a year writing a few articles. I bet he makes another 6 figures a year from media appearances.
No normal journalist is making that. Owen Jones is like the left wing version, he makes way more money now than he ever did writing for the Guardian.
Substack is like the OnlyFans for nerds. It is well known there are people making millions writing their little blogs on there.
He says he's still a honorary Professor...which just confirms that he's left. He says a big thing is a coming next month. I reckon he's got a GBNews slot, or maybe joining Reform.
I am far from convinced the far right is that well organised or that large in number*. I have heard security experts talk in the recent past of being in the low 100s of people who pose serious terrorist threat. We have had a number of previous attempts with the anti-Palestine protests etc and they never garner many people. I think it is more they caught the zeitgeist of pissed off people about recent events, lots of useful idiots and scallies, but the general public melts away pretty quickly when protests get violent.
* I am talking about hardcore people who want a violent race war, not people who are rather racist / ignorant.
I'm not sure they have ever been organised. Or even really existed. It's mainly a leftist strawman to justify their own antics.
30-35 years ago, the 'Anti Nazi League' (the thuggee wing of the Socialist Workers Party as it seemed to me) would regularly advertise events/counter-protests in South London to 'bash fascism' and 'fight the right' and various other slogan-based things. Some of my schoolmates boasted of attending these and getting into fights.
But the marches/events they were purporting to be fighting against barely existed and sometimes didn't take place at all (much to the disappointment of those who went out to fight against whatever it was). When they did, it was a tiny number of people, frequently older blokes just meeting for a beer and a racist chat, so they were always outnumbered in multitudes by the ANL yobs who were looking for any excuse to start a fight.
This wouldn't have made for a compelling narrative, so the scale and aggressiveness of the opponent had to be exaggerated, but even that stopped working after a while when most outsiders realised that it was always the anti-Nazi league in their hundreds vs about five 'Nazis' and none of them were actually real Nazis, obviously.
The violence and hooliganism was real, just not in the way they wanted people to believe. Someone in my year kicked me repeatedly in the head after finding out I wasn't entirely sympathetic to the ANL 'cause' and considered them a bunch of disingenuous hypocrites. Fuck you, Calum. Fuck you.
Tldr: Matt Goodwin has shot himself in the kneecaps. He has left his professorship for full-time Substacking and is no longer a prof nor an academic.
We did this down thread, Goodwin tweeted to say this isn't true.
Also even if he has, he claims he has 1000s of paid subs to his substack (and I can believe it, substack is quietly wildly successful for a lot of people), that will be £50k+/month easily. Would you teach a load of shitty undergrads at a middle tier uni when you can make £600k a year writing a few articles. I bet he makes another 6 figures a year from media appearances.
No normal journalist is making that. Owen Jones is like the left wing version, he makes way more money now than he ever did writing for the Guardian.
Substack is like the OnlyFans for nerds. It is well known there are people making millions writing their little blogs on there.
He says he's still a honorary Professor...which just confirms that he's left. He says a big thing is a coming next month. I reckon he's got a GBNews slot, or maybe joining Reform.
Any guesses?
Well given Boris doesn't seem to be doing his shift on GB News and they go through presenters like there is no tomorrow. Maybe.
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
I'd wait. If the co-ordination & strategic leadership is there, melting away for a bit is part of what you do, in fact its essential to push the pedal, come off it and change tactics. Im not sure those qualities or indeed a willingness to push more serious concentrated violence are in place but we arent going to find out in a week, you measure this thing in months.
I am far from convinced the far right is that well organised or that large in number*. I have heard security experts talk in the recent past of being in the low 100s of people who pose serious terrorist threat. We have had a number of previous attempts with the anti-Palestine protests etc and they never garner many people. I think it is more they caught the zeitgeist of pissed off people about recent events, lots of useful idiots and scallies, but the general public melts away pretty quickly when protests get violent.
* I am talking about hardcore people who want a violent race war, not people who are rather racist / ignorant.
Almost nobody voted for far-right parties at the general election for the simple reason that no such parties put up candidates, which leads me to believe the far-right is extremely small in numbers. Of course we used to get a fair number of BNP and NF candidates a while back.
Tldr: Matt Goodwin has shot himself in the kneecaps. He has left his professorship for full-time Substacking and is no longer a prof nor an academic.
We did this down thread, Goodwin tweeted to say this isn't true.
Also even if he has, he claims he has 1000s of paid subs to his substack (and I can believe it, substack is quietly wildly successful for a lot of people), that will be £50k+/month easily. Would you teach a load of shitty undergrads at a middle tier uni when you can make £600k a year writing a few articles. I bet he makes another 6 figures a year from media appearances.
No normal journalist is making that. Owen Jones is like the left wing version, he makes way more money now than he ever did writing for the Guardian.
Substack is like the OnlyFans for nerds. It is well known there are people making millions writing their little blogs on there.
He says he's still a honorary Professor...which just confirms that he's left. He says a big thing is a coming next month. I reckon he's got a GBNews slot, or maybe joining Reform.
Any guesses?
I've considered the possibility before he might want to put himself in the position to succeed Farage as leader of Reform (when Farage inevitably gets bored).
Commercial flight trackers suggest no air traffic over Lebanon and Syria
I imagine there might have been the possibility of some serious turbulence....
Lot of interest in Iranian military exercises that started at 4.30am local time. The Iranians have been good at maintaining ambiguity orn targets, scale and timing. Rumour has it the US has had some difficulty getting certainity on Iranian plans
"The Labour Party would need a record swing in votes at the next general election to win a majority in the House of Commons, according to analysis of the new electoral map.
The next election will be fought on new constituency boundaries, redrawn to reflect population changes and to try to even out voter numbers in each area.
An analysis of these changes for BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association suggests Labour needs a national swing of 12.7% to win with just a small majority.
That's considerably higher than the 10.2% achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 and higher even than the 12% achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945."
ABC News obtained audio of Donald Trump praising Tim Walz's handling of the George Floyd protests in Minnesota: “Very happy” “I fully agree with the way he handled it... [Walz is an] excellent guy” https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1821289551954112882
One reason for the apparent far right no show, the source said, was the deterrent effect of the wave of swift arrests and court appearances that gathered pace after the violence at the weekend, which caused widespread shock.
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
PB Tories who thought Starmer should have sucked up to the rioters instead of going hard on them disastrously wrong. Who would have guessed?
Who was saying that?
Lots of stuff on here from certain individuals who said that Starmer's response was "a disaster" and that he should have acknowledged people's "legitimate concerns."
The dying embers of the depleted Tory herd..... It's been embarrassing.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
I'd wait. If the co-ordination & strategic leadership is there, melting away for a bit is part of what you do, in fact its essential to push the pedal, come off it and change tactics. Im not sure those qualities or indeed a willingness to push more serious concentrated violence are in place but we arent going to find out in a week, you measure this thing in months.
One possible reactive cycle is the 'far right' winding up the 'counter protests'. These are oestensibly to 'defend against fascism' but if you look at the protests, they get hijacked by pro palestine sentiment along with people holding up placards with statements like 'refugees welcome' (how many? A billion?) So the counter protestors could be whipped up in to doing their own 'pro terrorist riot', and then the accusation would be that the lower tier of the policing/justice system applies to them. And so, the whole thing becomes 'two sides, both as bad as each other', which actually then ultimately has the effect of further legitimising the 'far right'.
The best strategy is to let the far right protests burn itself out, let the justice system run its course, try and win back those who are sympathetic to the 'far right' but draw a firm line at not accepting political violence of any kind.
Looks like huge numbers of police and anti-fascist protestors turned up today/tonight, but hardly any far-right protestors showed up. Maybe the whole thing was fake on their part.
Mostly the Far Right (and Far Left) are nowhere near as popular as they think they are. They spend too much time in their echo chambers and believe that they speak for far more people than they do.
OT just in case there are any fiction writers in the site, Ukraine is invading a specific part of Russia and nobody can work out what their objective is but it's the site of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly. What do they want with the Anomaly?
Comments
We did not collapse in 2015 because we went centre right. We collapsed because of the coalition, because of tuition fees, because.... The electorate had no idea if we were centre right or social democrats. As I said test it, ask voters when canvassing. See if they know. They don't. They have not a clue.
Why do they not have a clue because there is no Social Democrat wing and Liberal wing. Several of us who are long standing members have told you so. Don't you think we would know if such things existed. Yes there are Social Democrats. Yes there are Liberals like me. But there are no wings. It is just one big melting pot. We argue about stuff, we disagree about stuff, but I couldn't tell you which 'wing' any of my fellow LDs would sit in, without an in depth discussion with them.
What I do agree with you on is that all parties would split with PR and yes I would be in a Liberal party and those colleagues of mine who are Social Democrats would probably join a Social Democrat party. But at this point in time, with the odd exception, I could not tell you who they are. This is very different to the Tory and Labour party who do have wings and who do shift left and right and the public notice (eg Corbyn cf Starmer). Only anoraks like you and me notice any change in the LDs
How surprised should we be that Dylan Carey, who pleaded guilty to violent disorder today at Liverpool Crown Court, was out canvassing for Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon in Makerfield last month?
https://x.com/GregoryDavisHNH/status/1820814357321629848
On the face of it GB had another shytshow in the Olympics today
BUT
Our 400m runner got a European record and was the best European performance in the Olympics since Viktor Markin 1980 (someone can check this)
In the cycling AUS were expected to win and again we did really well
Our chance of Top 3 medal table is gone now after AUS won loads of golds today, well done to them they deserve it, their best performance of all time?
And it's unlikely we will catch France. A few more gold medals in the cycling and maybe @KJH in the pentathlon and we can finish Top 5 which we would have taken at the start 👍
Currently planning however a trip to Portugal again and Seville/Cordoba/Granada this September and October.
Any recommendations appreciated.
Kayaking is about €15 per person for two hours, they let you take picnics and extend it to four hours, they don't mind, so that's a whole day, you swim, you drink, you snooze, it's lush. I have kayaked all around the world - I love it - especially in warm sun - and the Gorges du Tarn is probably the best kayaking I have ever done. You can also canoe, or do really fierce rapids etc
Also picnics for dinner are brilliant: you will maybe want to picnic every night as well - we did - because the views are so stupendous and it is such a joy, then you clamber home in the dark with headtorches. Magical. Nightingales sing, bats swing around, the vivid wildlife is wonderful, boys will romp and girls will dream, or vice versa
It is a last glimpse of beautiful Europe as she was, rural and unspoiled and untouristed, and all of it one hour from Rodez airport
Guardian blog
Former DPP boss SKS non-fans please explain?
The highlight was the bats emerging from the roof tiles of the farmhouse we rented, every evening at dusk.
Lovely part of the world.
Please tell me that was deliberate this time?
I think it is more that in the UK protests have historically died pretty rapidly when they turn violent, student fees, BLM, anti-COVID. I think it is more that far right have convinced a combination of far right, some concerned citizens wanting to protest and scallies looking for opportunity for some criminality. The middle group won't turn up when its being painted of being a riot from the get-go and the last lot will go home on their e-bikes if it is clear there aren't numbers to allow them to go looting.
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 NEW: There have been no reports of riots tonight as thousands of anti-racist protesters significantly outnumber anti-immigration demonstrators across the country
James O'Brien
@mrjamesob
·
1h
From now on, a vote for Reform is clearly a vote for racist riots. That’s why Farage is so rattled. #FaragesRiots
Such a shame. Maybe time to get back to the day job of trying to find miserable conscripts for the meatgrinder of death?
Two weeks ago, dad and daughter
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Watermark-Essay-Venice-Joseph-Brodsky/dp/0141391499
He went in winter for thirty years.
More recently on Venice, and also good:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Venice-Interior-Javier-Marías/dp/0241248876/
(Translated from the Spanish)
You are with people you love, and like to talk to. You find the right spot. The sun is shining. Life is good. The view is ace. You lay down your picnic equipment - gotta have layers! - and you feast on fine cheese, good bread, tomatoes, ham, salamis, fruit, berries, and wine, and it all costs about a third of the price of a good restaurant and is easily twice as enjoyable and you watch the sun set over the hills and the moon rise over the chateau, AND you get to use complex knives and tools which are very satisfying for adult males so it is quite alpha
A great picnic is vastly more memorable and satisfying that a posh restaurant meal. I cannot even remember the meals my older daughter and I had in l'Aveyron, but we had those two spellbinding picnics and we talked about life and the world and the universe as the stars came out and I will cherish those memories till I die
It’s going to be pretty hard for Republicans to call this guy “extreme.”
https://x.com/SawyerHackett/status/1821189091473641527
No it isn’t.
But it’s going to be tough to do so with any shred of credibility.
But the fact I remember them so vividly goes to show. Picnics are fucking brilliant
It's that intoxicating mix of fresh air and walks and greenery and good food and wine and human company,under the sun: dejeuner sur l'herbe
As its best it beats any restaurant, at any time
Personally, I think his response was fine, I think he should have also (without false equivalence) said no vigilantes, that isn't the way forward, lets the police do their job. But also, it is somewhat out of his control in the very short term, if 1000s want to go onto the street, he can't personally stop them, he has to hope the police manage the situation. In 2011, the police were very poor for several days and totally lost control, this time, they seem to have managed things better under difficult circumstances and the situation has never become one where they have had to just let rioters do their thing for hours on end.
Two-tier picnics.
The problem I felt was that the Americans might have a problem with it. Some in the Biden adminstration definitely do but it appears they arent asking questions in public right now. Europe has done the Ukrainians a favour and come out saying its all fair, which leaves the Americans as outflanked as the Russians may be in the coming days.
What we dont know is whether the Ukrainians are going to do the hook, aim to create a massive diversion and turn back, cut the railway & road supply hub that they have nearly reached or a combination. Its unclear what the size of forces is but I have seen suggestions that is 2+ brigades.
If it is that big, its no diversion.
That’s some of my best memories - so you did your daughter a solid there.
Which is quite the change from a while back.
Seems implausible.
You could feel the desperation for Starmer to fail. Fortunately he didn't. It looks like his 'no compromise no prisoners' was a triumphant success. He didn't give an inch to the racists and what we're left with is a rather sad Tory and Reform Party licking their wounds who look even less fit to govern than they did a month ago
As you say. they are bankable memories, for sure: there is some intrinsic magic to them, I am not sure what it is. Perhaps an atavistic memory of hunter gatherer feasting??
No waiters etc - just family or friends or lovers. So solitude is necessary; picnics in crowded locations aren’t the same.
According to international law, Ukraine has a legal right to defend itself, including striking an aggressor on its territory, said European Commission spokesman Peter Stano regarding the events in the Kursk
https://x.com/Azovsouth/status/1821232486330069370
It shouldn’t need saying, but it does.
I’d thought the prime task for the new kit was to be countering the aircraft releasing glide bombs at the front line.
Caitlin Moran
@caitlinmoran
·
2h
Can't remember the last time Twitter made me so happy - all the footage, from across the country, of peaceful anti-racist protests. Streets jammed. Poetic that the opposite of civil war is all over Musk's platform.
* I am talking about hardcore people who want a violent race war, not people who are rather racist / ignorant.
Now... on to the sun loungers of Crete.
Kamala is now the betting favourite on betfair for POTUS..this is a big fucking deal and what a fucking turnaround. Go girl
The media for example keep on about EDL. But according to anti-nazi like Hope Not Hate it basically no longer exists as a functioning org.
The splinter cells have like a dozen activists with a couple of leading lights who do all the work.
Good times.
Many of us on PB though predicted this moment as soon as Biden was dropped.
This is why this site is the best.
Harris 2.06
Trump 2.08
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927
What is happening in Kursk (and rumours are of an incurison into Belgorod as well) is remarkably vague as are its actual objectives. If its a diversion, its high risk and potentially costly commit. If its designed to just stick the tongue out its completely stupid to waste resources. If its a hinge for a wider offensive then its potentially worth it. Reports suggest anything from 400 to 3000+ Ukrainians involved which is a rather large variation. The Ukrainian OPSEC, its fair to say has been really good, all the reports appear to be Russian-side.
Tldr: Matt Goodwin has shot himself in the kneecaps. He has left his professorship for full-time Substacking and is no longer a prof nor an academic.
Also even if he has, he claims he has 1000s of paid subs to his substack (and I can believe it, substack is quietly wildly successful for a lot of people), that will be £50k+/month easily. Would you teach a load of shitty undergrads at a middle tier uni when you can make £600k a year writing a few articles. I bet he makes another 6 figures a year from media appearances.
No normal journalist is making that. Owen Jones is like the left wing version, he makes way more money now than he ever did writing for the Guardian.
Substack is like the OnlyFans for nerds. It is well known there are people making millions writing their little blogs on there.
He says he's still a honorary Professor...which just confirms that he's left. He says a big thing is a coming next month. I reckon he's got a GBNews slot, or maybe joining Reform.
Any guesses?
I'm not sure they have ever been organised. Or even really existed. It's mainly a leftist strawman to justify their own antics.
30-35 years ago, the 'Anti Nazi League' (the thuggee wing of the Socialist Workers Party as it seemed to me) would regularly advertise events/counter-protests in South London to 'bash fascism' and 'fight the right' and various other slogan-based things. Some of my schoolmates boasted of attending these and getting into fights.
But the marches/events they were purporting to be fighting against barely existed and sometimes didn't take place at all (much to the disappointment of those who went out to fight against whatever it was). When they did, it was a tiny number of people, frequently older blokes just meeting for a beer and a racist chat, so they were always outnumbered in multitudes by the ANL yobs who were looking for any excuse to start a fight.
This wouldn't have made for a compelling narrative, so the scale and aggressiveness of the opponent had to be exaggerated, but even that stopped working after a while when most outsiders realised that it was always the anti-Nazi league in their hundreds vs about five 'Nazis' and none of them were actually real Nazis, obviously.
The violence and hooliganism was real, just not in the way they wanted people to believe. Someone in my year kicked me repeatedly in the head after finding out I wasn't entirely sympathetic to the ANL 'cause' and considered them a bunch of disingenuous hypocrites. Fuck you, Calum. Fuck you.
https://x.com/da_wessel/status/1821313969505645023
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0021qsy
Predicting a riot in Hounslow almost caused one
7 August 2024, 10:31pm"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/predicting-a-riot-in-hounslow-almost-caused-one/
"The Labour Party would need a record swing in votes at the next general election to win a majority in the House of Commons, according to analysis of the new electoral map.
The next election will be fought on new constituency boundaries, redrawn to reflect population changes and to try to even out voter numbers in each area.
An analysis of these changes for BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association suggests Labour needs a national swing of 12.7% to win with just a small majority.
That's considerably higher than the 10.2% achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 and higher even than the 12% achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67361138
In reality the swing was only 10.8% yet Labour won a majority of 170 as we know.
Harris to protesters repeatedly heckling at Michigan rally (about Gaza war):
“Everyone’s voice matters. But I am speaking now…
“You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”
https://news.sky.com/story/king-charles-has-asked-for-daily-updates-on-protests-sky-news-understands-13192761
https://x.com/BrianDMcBride/status/1821305096820400192
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1821289551954112882
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1d75033rvwo
The Mail front page, particularly, is worthy of framing.
The best strategy is to let the far right protests burn itself out, let the justice system run its course, try and win back those who are sympathetic to the 'far right' but draw a firm line at not accepting political violence of any kind.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Magnetic_Anomaly