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Should we start describing Kamala as the favourite for the White House Race? – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    P
    Leon said:

    Watch this and tell me we don’t have two-tier policing


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1820881508413899082?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The use of the word “partners” was quite telling.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    DavidL said:

    That's why I say people are twitchy and the current bloody stalemate suits the US (and us) very well.
    If some Ivan had bothered to connect up that AMRAAMski correctly, then it would have hit the RAF Rivet Joint aircraft, and we’d have been in The Fun Zone
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    WillG said:

    You can have a legitimate grievance while still having absolutely no grounds to justify rioting.
    But I don't believe 20 year old Liam Grey from Mexborough had a grievance, he was out for a ruck.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    Mel Stride first to try and distance himself from the Farascist riots...

    @mikeysmith
    STORY

    Mel Stride is the first Tory leadership contender to explicitly rule out a deal with
    @Nigel_Farage - branding him "irresponsible" over riots.

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1820927927376052567
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    edited August 2024
    MaxPB said:

    A wealth tax would need to have minimum thresholds and fundamentally is someone who owns a £3m house with a £2.4m mortgage wealthy? Would you tax that person on the whole £3m or just the £0.6m?
    It would have to be the net £0.6m, the other £2.4m is held by other people - those who have savings in the building society or bank.
  • Foxy said:

    No, wealth needs to be taxed as well as income, or otherwise structural inequality in the country is entrenched.
    I support taxing property more but how do you define other wealth ?

    For example I have far more wealth in my DC pension pots than I do in my property.

    Do you include those as wealth to be taxed ? If so then how do you include the equivalent in DB pensions ?

  • Are today's triple jumpers anywhere near Jonathan Edwards? That WR has to be what 30 years now.

    We had 2 men jumping over 18 meters at the European Championships this year. Longest 18.18 against Edwards' 18.29. Third best of all time.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    kjh said:

    I suggest you read the account he linked to and then maybe you might change that view. Probably some of the worst anti semitism possible. See @viewcode comments. Pure Nazism. Not even oblique, but straight out there hatred. Look at the Jewish cartoons, the glorification of Hitler, the video abusing a bastard Jew. This is what Musk is linking to.
    He linked to a meme that was not anti semetic, pro Hitler / Nazi or whatever you want to call it. But actually made a fairly perceptive point about the uk criminal justice system. Why do you suppose he read back through the past posts of that meme poster?

    It really is quite silly to think Elon Musk supports the glorification of Hitler and the destruction of the Jews but you believe whatever you want.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 141
    edited August 2024
    A month into a new government: this forum is debating the advantages of Chinese-style censorship and @Roger posts something like this (on the previous thread).

    "Harris/Walz works well. It has notes of Vienna and an elegant pre war Europe

    Harris /Shapiro is a little too Board of Deputies"

    Extraordinary.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Is that you, Elon?
    No.

    Has anyone noticed Elon is an anagram of Leon?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690

    It would have to be the net £0.6m, the other £2.4m is held by other people - those who have savings in the building society or bank.
    But what seems to be being proposed is a flat 0.5% tax on property values, not net wealth, which is crackers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    edited August 2024

    Yes that would be fine - do you want to give me an email address or something (suitably disguised if on here) so I can send a receipt conf if available?

    Will be by the weekend if that's ok.
    No receipt required. I trust you'll do it. Cheers.

    @DoubleCarpet
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    MaxPB said:

    A wealth tax would need to have minimum thresholds and fundamentally is someone who owns a £3m house with a £2.4m mortgage wealthy? Would you tax that person on the whole £3m or just the £0.6m?
    They live in a £3m house - if they can afford a £2.4m mortgage at 4.5% interest they can afford a 0.5% tax bill
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,455
    edited August 2024

    I support taxing property more but how do you define other wealth ?

    For example I have far more wealth in my DC pension pots than I do in my property.

    Do you include those as wealth to be taxed ? If so then how do you include the equivalent in DB pensions ?
    Property is a pretty good proxy of wealth in the UK, and not mobile or concealable.

    It's why I always have opposed the LD proposal of a local income tax.

    Pensions are taxed when taken.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    This is, disturbing...

    @ElieNYC

    My dude wanted to run against Biden so badly that he is now producing fanfic

    https://x.com/ElieNYC/status/1820924424880578604
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051
    Leon said:

    It’s utterly incredible

    “Community leaders told us it would be fine so we didn’t bother policing it and anyway there were only 94 people with machetes”
    It's a form of indirect rule practiced in colonial times, that we seem to still be quite happy to try on our own shores.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    WillG said:

    The British approach of delegating authority to self appointed community leaders, often with extremely chauvinistic and backwards views, is bananas.
    Tell me about it.

    In Northern Ireland we have community leaders who are in some danger of evolving as far as opposable thumbs. Very low primates…..

    Perhaps we could swap them with some people less violent, bigoted and into the drug trade. Hmmmm…. Taliban might be a good fit?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    eek said:

    They live in a £3m house - if they can afford a £2.4m mortgage at 4.5% interest they can afford a 0.5% tax bill
    So it's not a wealth tax then because that person doesn't have £3m in wealth, they have £0.6m in wealth.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Mein Kampf?
    No, you can keep your copy.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    2m
    Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Rioters face terror charges, warns DPP”



    Throw the book at them. No mercy.

    Would something like joint entreprise on arson be easier to prove and open to even life sentences?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    rcs1000 said:

    He lost a fight with a rabbit. No President could survive that.
    It was the oil crisis which did for his presidency.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    MaxPB said:

    But what seems to be being proposed is a flat 0.5% tax on property values, not net wealth, which is crackers.
    If you are arguing it’s crackers because it won’t raise as much as council tax currently does I agree.

    If you are arguing it’s crackers because some people in the South East / London will pay more than additional bands (the other solution) is going to create the same issue.

    My problem is that the banding of houses in 1990 was done badly and even ignoring that in a lot of areas many houses that are Band E/F are now worth less than band C/D houses in other parts of the town that have improved.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,401

    SKS fans.

    Your boy has lost control of the streets.

    Quiet on the streets, riot in the sheets. Vote Carnforth.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,455

    Mein Kampf?
    I think you will find that it was the readers of Mein Kampf who beat people up in the street, smashed up their shops and tried to burn their houses and places of worship.
  • eek said:

    They live in a £3m house - if they can afford a £2.4m mortgage at 4.5% interest they can afford a 0.5% tax bill
    The challenge with switching to a wealth tax is evasion. Income tax and NI are hard to evade if you are on PAYE; likewise council tax is hard to evade. A wealth tax though is hard for the Revenue to fully enforce - you would presumably be relying on some form of self-declaration and then there is a lot of subjectivity - how much is that painting worth or shares in the family firm? And it becomes easier for people to hide cash in the mattress or buy gold bars.
  • But I don't believe 20 year old Liam Grey from Mexborough had a grievance, he was out for a ruck.
    People from Mexborough wont like that description - he's actually from Kilnhurst.

    You can get a three bed semi in his street for about £140k.

    As you say he was out for a ruck, in an earlier generation he would have got it at a football match, a picket line or a Friday night.

    It wasn't the lack of opportunities or lifelong poverty.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953

    Kamala Harris is shortening on Betfair. Now into 2.18. Trump 1.94 favourite.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927

    Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.

    I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.

    Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.

    Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,538
    Nigelb said:

    It was the oil crisis which did for his presidency.
    It was the helicopter crash while trying to rescue the hostages. If they'd pulled it off Carter would have walked it.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    The challenge with switching to a wealth tax is evasion. Income tax and NI are hard to evade if you are on PAYE; likewise council tax is hard to evade. A wealth tax though is hard for the Revenue to fully enforce - you would presumably be relying on some form of self-declaration and then there is a lot of subjectivity - how much is that painting worth or shares in the family firm? And it becomes easier for people to hide cash in the mattress or buy gold bars.
    Which is why every time we’ve looked at the idea on this site we end up using houses as a proxy for wealth.

    And the advantage there is if you wish to move to a cheaper house, your wealth would likely be shifted into productive purposes (investment in the stock market / a business) to generate a return.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    edited August 2024
    MaxPB said:

    So it's not a wealth tax then because that person doesn't have £3m in wealth, they have £0.6m in wealth.
    Correct. A bit like council tax.

    It's just council tax with a formula. It's not perfect. There will be weird distortions. A land value tax is probably better. But unlike all other forms of tax/wealth/land tax, it's possible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Cookie said:

    These riots have been enabled by 25 years of stratospheric immigration levels.
    The other, and probably better explanation, is the utter failure of levelling up (or whatever you want to call it).
    It the economic prospects of the poorest WWC had improved, you probably wouldn’t be seeing this, anlmost irrespective of immigration levels.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,411
    MaxPB said:

    So it's not a wealth tax then because that person doesn't have £3m in wealth, they have £0.6m in wealth.
    If Labour seriously tries to impose a property tax remotely like the one proposed you'll know they're actively trying to lose the next election. They'd alienate virtually anyone of any influence in the country, lose London for a generation and please only their core vote and most of them only slightly.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    The challenge with switching to a wealth tax is evasion. Income tax and NI are hard to evade if you are on PAYE; likewise council tax is hard to evade. A wealth tax though is hard for the Revenue to fully enforce - you would presumably be relying on some form of self-declaration and then there is a lot of subjectivity - how much is that painting worth or shares in the family firm? And it becomes easier for people to hide cash in the mattress or buy gold bars.
    If you hid cash in the mattress you would have lost about 10% bank interest over the last two years, more if comparing to investments. Why not just pay the much lower wealth tax? Also if it is in the hundreds of thousands or millions that a wealth tax targets you would also really struggle to ever spend it or put it back in the system.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Fishing said:

    If Labour seriously tries to impose a property tax remotely like the one proposed you'll know they're actively trying to lose the next election. They'd alienate virtually anyone of any influence in the country, lose London for a generation and please only their core vote and most of them only slightly.
    The point of doing it now is that it could be implemented in April 2026 (heck you could actually do it in 2025 at a push) leaving plenty of time for it to be running before the next election.

    And many people in Labour areas would be better off ..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    But I don't believe 20 year old Liam Grey from Mexborough had a grievance, he was out for a ruck.
    "Sick of being left behind by globalisation and the knowledge economy. I'm going to burn down a Mosque."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    Fishing said:

    If Labour seriously tries to impose a property tax remotely like the one proposed you'll know they're actively trying to lose the next election. They'd alienate virtually anyone of any influence in the country, lose London for a generation and please only their core vote and most of them only slightly.
    Well they'd be suddenly landing people in pretty ordinary terraced houses bills of £7-10k across big swathes of London if it was on gross value rather than net value. Imagine telling a family in London that they're going to pay £500-700 per month for their new council tax so that potholes in Sunderland get fixed.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    Olympics: certainly a difficult few days for Britain with lots of gold opportunities not being converted. But we are still Top 5 in the table.

    Still a chance for us to beat France or more realistically Australia if we can get maybe 4 or 5 in the cycling plus we need to pick up a few others eg as correctly identified by @MaxPB, KJH who has been consistently excellent for years and I really hope she wins!

    From my perspective it looks like France 3 as they will continue to win across wide range of events, GB 4 and Aus 5 as their main strength is in swimming which is finished.

    Clearly USA and China 1 and 2 no idea which order.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    eek said:

    The point of doing it now is that it could be implemented in April 2026 (heck you could actually do it in 2025 at a push) leaving plenty of time for it to be running before the next election.

    And many people in Labour areas would be better off ..
    They'd lose the entirety of the South East and London for more than a generation and big parts of the East and South West. Plus some of the posher bits of the North.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,455
    MaxPB said:

    Well they'd be suddenly landing people in pretty ordinary terraced houses bills of £7-10k across big swathes of London if it was on gross value rather than net value. Imagine telling a family in London that they're going to pay £500-700 per month for their new council tax so that potholes in Sunderland get fixed.
    Likely to go down very well in Sunderland though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    Foxy said:

    Likely to go down very well in Sunderland though.
    I have no doubt, yet I don't see it as an election winning strategy. As I said before, Labour are never going to do it, the furthest we might go is a new valuation for council tax and new upper bands up to O or P.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited August 2024
    MaxPB said:

    They'd lose the entirety of the South East and London for more than a generation and big parts of the East and South West. Plus some of the posher bits of the North.
    And so we reach the point why council tax hasn’t changed in 30+ years the political cost is too much so it can only be done on the first few months after an election because otherwise it’s too late.

    Worse it them takes 2-3 years to calculate the appropriate rates so that it can’t be implement before year 3/4 of the Parliament just as the next election comes round.

    That’s why it’s going to be a percentage of house price, because that can be implemented quickly hopefully providing enough time that people get used to it
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    edited August 2024
    eek said:

    And so we reach the point why council tax hasn’t changed in 30+ years the political cost is too much so it can only be done on the first few months after an election because otherwise it’s too late.

    Worse it them takes 2-3 years to calculate the appropriate rates so that it can’t be implement before year 3/4 of the Parliament just as the next election comes round.

    That’s why it’s going to be a percentage of house price, because that can be implemented quickly hopefully providing enough time that people get used to it
    I think you're deluding yourself if you think Labour will ever introduce a property tax on gross value but 🤷‍♂️

    The reality of the situation is that Labour will probably do precisely zero on council tax.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,130

    Absolute confirmation if it were needed.

    Kamala Harris
    @KamalaHarris
    I am proud to announce that I've asked @Tim_Walz
    to be my running mate.
    As a governor, a coach, a teacher, and a veteran, he's delivered for working families like his.
    It's great to have him on the team.
    Now let’s get to work. Join us:

    https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1820828396298879294

    It's a pity that they feel the need to do it in such a schmaltzy way with a camera on each of them and then try to make it sound spontaneous. I know it's the American way but I'm sure we're hoping she'll be different
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Good grief, BBC. Can you not interview any Americans on the US election who aren’t Republicans ?
    WTF is Frank fucking Lunz - long time GOP propagandist - the go to guy on analysing Harris’s VP pick ? And presented as some sort of objective commentator.
  • If you hid cash in the mattress you would have lost about 10% bank interest over the last two years, more if comparing to investments. Why not just pay the much lower wealth tax? Also if it is in the hundreds of thousands or millions that a wealth tax targets you would also really struggle to ever spend it or put it back in the system.
    There's still the practicality of it. What should the tax be paid on? Home equity? Investments? Car? Furniture? Do I need to try and work out what my 2 year old TV is worth? And again if it is self-declaration, how do the Revenue check for fiddling? Do they send inspectors to visit people's houses looking for undeclared antiques? And what about overseas assets?

    And then the other side of the coin is debt. As I have a large mortgage, my total debt exceeds my total assets. Should the government pay me a refund for that? I

    If such a tax was brought in, it would have a massive distorting effect on the economy, as it would encourage people not to spend on anything that could be an asset or increase the value of an asset e.g. new car, house extension. Instead, it would either encourage people to spend money on non-assets e.g. foreign holiday or to put all their money into debt repayment. This would have a devastating impact on several sectors of the economy and would also lead to falling asset values across the board as people chose to/had to sell.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    MaxPB said:

    I think you're deluding yourself if you think Labour will ever introduce a property tax on gross value but 🤷‍♂️

    The reality of the situation is that Labour will probably do precisely zero on council tax.
    The government needs to raise tax revenue and there isn’t many (any) places left where additional revenue can be generated.

    It’s why you end up looking at council tax because there isn’t much left that isn’t taxed to the hilt or is untouchable due to election commitments
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    @Leon

    University of Edinburgh on Gobekli Tepe, giving credence to Graham Hancock!

    https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1053218
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    kinabalu said:

    "Sick of being left behind by globalisation and the knowledge economy. I'm going to burn down a Mosque."
    The classic story of fascism, really.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,538
    MaxPB said:

    Well they'd be suddenly landing people in pretty ordinary terraced houses bills of £7-10k across big swathes of London if it was on gross value rather than net value. Imagine telling a family in London that they're going to pay £500-700 per month for their new council tax so that potholes in Sunderland get fixed.
    And, of course, house prices would collapse because of the embodied tax liability, so a lot of recent purchasers would find themselves in negative equity.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712
    This is Britain.

    Not Elon Musk's paranoid demented fantasies.



    https://x.com/jdpoc/status/1820809699882684827
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    Scott_xP said:

    This is, disturbing...

    @ElieNYC

    My dude wanted to run against Biden so badly that he is now producing fanfic

    https://x.com/ElieNYC/status/1820924424880578604

    He’s not ok, is he?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited August 2024

    And, of course, house prices would collapse because of the embodied tax liability, so a lot of recent purchasers would find themselves in negative equity.
    For recent purchasers the impact would be far less than the impact Trussonomics had on those who bought from 2018 onwards and have had to remortgage since 2022.
  • Nigelb said:

    The other, and probably better explanation, is the utter failure of levelling up (or whatever you want to call it).
    It the economic prospects of the poorest WWC had improved, you probably wouldn’t be seeing this, anlmost irrespective of immigration levels.
    Their prospects have improved.

    But, in all societies, there are going to be the underclass dregs who cause trouble and accept no responsibilities.
  • moonshine said:

    @Leon

    University of Edinburgh on Gobekli Tepe, giving credence to Graham Hancock!

    https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1053218

    :innocent:

    https://grahamhancock.com/drsunilatlantis/
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    edited August 2024
    kyf_100 said:

    Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.

    I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.

    Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.

    Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
    I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.

    I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    MaxPB said:

    They'd lose the entirety of the South East and London for more than a generation and big parts of the East and South West. Plus some of the posher bits of the North.
    Far more constituencies 0.5% would be a big cut, I'd guess probably 90% maybe.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,779

    Their prospects have improved.

    But, in all societies, there are going to be the underclass dregs who cause trouble and accept no responsibilities.
    The dregs causing trouble and accepting no responsibilities in this case is 100% Nigel Farage.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787
    moonshine said:

    He linked to a meme that was not anti semetic, pro Hitler / Nazi or whatever you want to call it. But actually made a fairly perceptive point about the uk criminal justice system. Why do you suppose he read back through the past posts of that meme poster?

    It really is quite silly to think Elon Musk supports the glorification of Hitler and the destruction of the Jews but you believe whatever you want.
    You don't have to read back far down the history of the meme poster, just a few flicks down. It took me a second to realise what was happening.
  • kyf_100 said:

    Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.

    I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.

    Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.

    Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
    Its not so much as to whether they're worse off its often more if they think they're worse off.

    And at a further step whether they think they're worse off than they think they deserve to be.

    Some mixture of reality versus memories and perceived reality versus self-entitled expectations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Nigelb said:

    Good grief, BBC. Can you not interview any Americans on the US election who aren’t Republicans ?
    WTF is Frank fucking Lunz - long time GOP propagandist - the go to guy on analysing Harris’s VP pick ? And presented as some sort of objective commentator.

    They were all Democrats on Newsnight and BBC1, even Luntz said Harris was favourite in his view. Not a single Republican on there!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322

    Olympics: certainly a difficult few days for Britain with lots of gold opportunities not being converted. But we are still Top 5 in the table.

    Still a chance for us to beat France or more realistically Australia if we can get maybe 4 or 5 in the cycling plus we need to pick up a few others eg as correctly identified by @MaxPB, KJH who has been consistently excellent for years and I really hope she wins!

    From my perspective it looks like France 3 as they will continue to win across wide range of events, GB 4 and Aus 5 as their main strength is in swimming which is finished.

    Clearly USA and China 1 and 2 no idea which order.

    I assume you mean KJT although I am willing to give the heptathlon ago, but I'm not sure of the sex change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited August 2024

    I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.

    I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
    At the moment I think we could see the first Republican presidential election win in the popular vote and EC since Bush beat Kerry 20 years ago in 2004. Harris-Walz is the most leftwing Democratic ticket since McGovern-Shriver in 1972
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,130
    Scott_xP said:

    This is, disturbing...

    @ElieNYC

    My dude wanted to run against Biden so badly that he is now producing fanfic

    https://x.com/ElieNYC/status/1820924424880578604

    Sid and Doris......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Scott_xP said:

    This is, disturbing...

    @ElieNYC

    My dude wanted to run against Biden so badly that he is now producing fanfic

    https://x.com/ElieNYC/status/1820924424880578604

    He seems genuinely mentally unstable, I don't think it is an act. Amazing how much 45% of americans love it though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    eek said:

    For recent purchasers the impact would be far less than the impact Trussonomics had on those who bought from 2018 onwards and have had to remortgage since 2022.
    Then you don't understand interest rates properly, the moron premium from Truss unwound a few weeks after Rishi and Hunt settled everything down. This would cause structurally higher tax for everyone in London and the South East and big chunks of the rest of the country.

    It's much more likely that the chancellor will do some accounting tricks to make it look like the deficit is falling than actually raise tax or move to a suicidal property taxation system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    eek said:

    The government needs to raise tax revenue and there isn’t many (any) places left where additional revenue can be generated.

    It’s why you end up looking at council tax because there isn’t much left that isn’t taxed to the hilt or is untouchable due to election commitments
    Council tax should be set by local councils accountable to their local voters for it, not central government
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    moonshine said:

    @Leon

    University of Edinburgh on Gobekli Tepe, giving credence to Graham Hancock!

    https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1053218

    That’s amazing. Ta. Hancock possibly vindicated??

    This also strongly implies the people of the Tas Tepeler had writing, how else could they do all this. I’ve been suggesting this for years

    6000 years before Sumer
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment I think we could see the first Republican presidential election win in the popular vote and EC since Bush beat Kerry 20 years ago in 2004. Harris-Walz is the most leftwing Democratic ticket since McGovern-Shriver in 1972
    The GOP haven't come within 2.5m of the popular vote since 2004, that is a very bold prediction indeed.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507
    HYUFD said:

    Council tax should be set by local councils accountable to their local voters for it, not central government
    The government can do precisely that by uncapping council tax bands. A local % property tax would be another option.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712
    HYUFD said:

    They were all Democrats on Newsnight and BBC1, even Luntz said Harris was favourite in his view. Not a single Republican on there!
    Posters on here post now and again that Lunz is a GOP propagandist.

    I just don't see that.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    Their prospects have improved.

    But, in all societies, there are going to be the underclass dregs who cause trouble and accept no responsibilities.
    That’s the point. There are large numbers of folk whose prospects have not improved - despite the political promises of the last decade.

    And dismissing them all as “dregs” is pretty contemptible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712
    Oh FFS.

    I guess the BBC will now have to respond by putting him on QT for six weeks in a row as soon as it is next on.


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    1m
    Wednesday’s Daily EXPRESS: “Farage Warns: Britain Is At ‘Quite Perilous Point’ “. #TomorrowsPapersToday
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Leon said:

    That’s amazing. Ta. Hancock possibly vindicated??

    This also strongly implies the people of the Tas Tepeler had writing, how else could they do all this. I’ve been suggesting this for years

    6000 years before Sumer
    That's a hell of a gap. What the heck was going on in all those years? Human civilization letting us down!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712
    Prediction: Farage and co are overplaying their miserable hand. Maybe deliberately somehow to influence the tory leadership race.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited August 2024
    According to Yougov's fame and popularity rankings, Tommy Robinson unsurprisingly has a net negative rating but at -21% it is actually better than Sunak at -42%, Starmer at -38%, Jeremy Hunt at -35% and Priti Patel at -22%. Farage at -14% is not that much higher than him either and 70% have heard of Robinson.

    Tugendhat is at +7% and Badenoch at +11% so would likely give the Tories a boost if elected new Tory leader. Jenrick is also only at -3%
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/explore/public_figure/Tommy_Robinson
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Hunt
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Priti_Patel
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Nigel_Farage
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Tom_Tugendhat
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Kemi_Badenoch
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Robert_Jenrick
  • BBC News - Hamas names Yahya Sinwar as new overall leader
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqxjjvdq7eyo
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,496

    Oh FFS.

    I guess the BBC will now have to respond by putting him on QT for six weeks in a row as soon as it is next on.


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    1m
    Wednesday’s Daily EXPRESS: “Farage Warns: Britain Is At ‘Quite Perilous Point’ “. #TomorrowsPapersToday

    To balance things out they could reduce their mentions of him from every second news item to every third? Maybe fill in that slot with Lee Anderson, for even more balance?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    kjh said:

    I assume you mean KJT although I am willing to give the heptathlon ago, but I'm not sure of the sex change.
    Yes sorry too much time on here 😃😃😃
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Eabhal said:

    Correct. A bit like council tax.

    It's just council tax with a formula. It's not perfect. There will be weird distortions. A land value tax is probably better. But unlike all other forms of tax/wealth/land tax, it's possible.
    Like with the removal of winter fuel allowance for most pensioners. As discussed on here, Labour did it quickly and rapidly in the most and, in this case, only efficient way possible, without adding to expensive bureaucracy (or simply adding to the backlog without adding more civil servants).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    It's good that Musk has let bygones by bygones after things like this in the past.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited August 2024
    MaxPB said:

    Then you don't understand interest rates properly, the moron premium from Truss unwound a few weeks after Rishi and Hunt settled everything down. This would cause structurally higher tax for everyone in London and the South East and big chunks of the rest of the country.

    It's much more likely that the chancellor will do some accounting tricks to make it look like the deficit is falling than actually raise tax or move to a suicidal property taxation system.
    So 5 year fix mortgage rates in say February 2022 weren’t 2.4% compared to the 4.3% they were this February and the 4.5% they were today when I looked

    https://rationanalytics.com/uk/mortgage-rates-5-year

    Granted calling the reason behind the increase Trussonomics was a tad unfair but it’s a useful shortcut to show that since 2021 mortgage rates have increased significantly far more than 0.5%
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322
    moonshine said:

    He linked to a meme that was not anti semetic, pro Hitler / Nazi or whatever you want to call it. But actually made a fairly perceptive point about the uk criminal justice system. Why do you suppose he read back through the past posts of that meme poster?

    It really is quite silly to think Elon Musk supports the glorification of Hitler and the destruction of the Jews but you believe whatever you want.
    What? He just stumbles upon it does he? He doesn't look to see what he is linking to either? Are you for real? Have you actually looked at what this person posts. It's vile. It is disgusting and it is up front. You have to be an idiot of the first order not to see it and I'm sure Musk isn't an idiot. How do you think I saw it? I only saw it because I saw Musk's post. How did Musk not see it? Don't be an idiot by defending this.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    eek said:

    So 5 year fix mortgage rates in say February 2022 weren’t 2.4% compared to the 4.3% they were this February and the 4.5% they were today when I looked

    https://rationanalytics.com/uk/mortgage-rates-5-year

    But that's not because of Liz Truss, that's because interest rates went up all over the world. Or do you really think we could have held rates down at 0.5% while inflation was running at 13%?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    :innocent:

    https://grahamhancock.com/drsunilatlantis/
    Excellent stuff
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 908
    Nigelb said:

    That’s the point. There are large numbers of folk whose prospects have not improved - despite the political promises of the last decade.

    And dismissing them all as “dregs” is pretty contemptible.
    Smashing up hotels, being violent, and attacking the police and ethnic minorities. I'm happy to call the people doing this dregs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    Posters on here post now and again that Lunz is a GOP propagandist.

    I just don't see that.

    Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant and pollster,[1][2] best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz

    I’m hoping you’re being sarcastic.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322

    Yes sorry too much time on here 😃😃😃
    No need to apologise as it gave me the opportunity for (he says modestly) a good joke. You set it up beautifully for me.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited August 2024
    Phil said:

    The government can do precisely that by uncapping council tax bands. A local % property tax would be another option.
    Probably worth looking at it from the other direction - London will be paying more but surely @dixiedean shouldnt be paying the equivalent of 4% tax a year on what I suspect is a small house / flat
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,496
    Leon said:

    That’s amazing. Ta. Hancock possibly vindicated??

    This also strongly implies the people of the Tas Tepeler had writing, how else could they do all this. I’ve been suggesting this for years

    6000 years before Sumer
    If you want an interesting GPT/Claude discussion - ask it about the bronze age collapse and the rise of monotheism. Chatting to it with idea about The Flood is also quite interesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Nigelb said:

    Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant and pollster,[1][2] best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz

    I’m hoping you’re being sarcastic.
    He is generally objective and also close to David Cameron, hardly MAGA
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited August 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant and pollster,[1][2] best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz

    I’m hoping you’re being sarcastic.
    I think there is a spectrum from obvious partisan to actual propagandist. I'm sure I've seen him say occasionally critical things about the GOP, or at least be measured, which the full on propagandists would never do.
  • FF43 said:

    The dregs causing trouble and accepting no responsibilities in this case is 100% Nigel Farage.
    Your explanation is too easy.

    He's a factor, undoubtedly, but the "Cause" ?

    "100%" ?

    I don't buy it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    kle4 said:

    The GOP haven't come within 2.5m of the popular vote since 2004, that is a very bold prediction indeed.
    The GOP haven't faced a ticket as liberal left as this since 2004 either and even Kerry picked Edwards, a moderate Southerner from North Carolina (despite his later zipper problem)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    kjh said:

    What? He just stumbles upon it does he? He doesn't look to see what he is linking to either? Are you for real? Have you actually looked at what this person posts. It's vile. It is disgusting and it is up front. You have to be an idiot of the first order not to see it and I'm sure Musk isn't an idiot. How do you think I saw it? I only saw it because I saw Musk's post. How did Musk not see it? Don't be an idiot by defending this.
    Whilst people can be very intelligent in some ways and very dumb in others, when someone's public persona is in part based around proclaiming how bloody smart they are, it reduces their ability to use the tried and tested 'I'm an idiot/I didn't know' defences. See also Trump, Donald, and Bankman-Fried, Sam.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.

    I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
    Yes, I don't think people are quite clocking what a weak candidate Trump is. Without the gift of an opponent too frail to campaign he's going to struggle.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    eek said:

    Probably worth looking at it from the other direction - London will be paying more but surely @dixiedean shouldnt be paying the equivalent of 4% tax a year on what I suspect is a small house / flat
    That's a feature not a bug, from the Tories trying to keep the poll tax element.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712
    Walz's cat is called Afton.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712
    kle4 said:

    I think there is a spectrum from obvious partisan to actual propagandist. I'm sure I've seen him say occasionally critical things about the GOP, or at least be measured, which the full on propagandists would never do.
    He is often measured. Often just reports on his focus groups.
This discussion has been closed.