I wouldn't be suprised if in the end nothing happens. It's like the Barnett formula. People agree that it ought to be revisited but it will create winners and losers - the winners will take the win and the losers will complain a lot.
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
Yes, I don't think people are quite clocking what a weak candidate Trump is. Without the gift of an opponent too frail to campaign he's going to struggle.
Trump won in 2016 and got 47% even in 2020, he isn't that weak
Good grief, BBC. Can you not interview any Americans on the US election who aren’t Republicans ? WTF is Frank fucking Lunz - long time GOP propagandist - the go to guy on analysing Harris’s VP pick ? And presented as some sort of objective commentator.
They were all Democrats on Newsnight and BBC1, even Luntz said Harris was favourite in his view. Not a single Republican on there!
Posters on here post now and again that Lunz is a GOP propagandist.
I just don't see that.
Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant and pollster,[1][2] best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz
I’m hoping you’re being sarcastic.
He is generally objective and also close to David Cameron, hardly MAGA
This also strongly implies the people of the Tas Tepeler had writing, how else could they do all this. I’ve been suggesting this for years
6000 years before Sumer
That's a hell of a gap. What the heck was going on in all those years? Human civilization letting us down!
The amazing thing about Gobekli Tepe is not the long gap from it until Sumer but the very short gap between the end of the Younger Dryas to its construction. A mere handful of human lifetimes relatively speaking. Just what were humans up to the circa 70k years prior in the equatorial zone, which was relatively inhabitable despite the ice age?
Hancock is evocative because there appears little logic to the idea that the makers of Gobekli Tepe developed such sophisticated knowledge in such a short period of benign climate, but there is no history worthy of the name in the many many millennia prior, in places with an equally benign climate.
Good grief, BBC. Can you not interview any Americans on the US election who aren’t Republicans ? WTF is Frank fucking Lunz - long time GOP propagandist - the go to guy on analysing Harris’s VP pick ? And presented as some sort of objective commentator.
They were all Democrats on Newsnight and BBC1, even Luntz said Harris was favourite in his view. Not a single Republican on there!
Posters on here post now and again that Lunz is a GOP propagandist.
I just don't see that.
Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant and pollster,[1][2] best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz
I’m hoping you’re being sarcastic.
I think there is a spectrum from obvious partisan to actual propagandist. I'm sure I've seen him say occasionally critical things about the GOP, or at least be measured, which the full on propagandists would never do.
As per Wikipedia "developing Republican talking points", Luntz is a professional propagandist. Newsnight have always liked him though, years ago they paid him to work with focus groups of floating voters, which was him working out talking points for the Conservatives.
Guido is talking about Council tax switching to a proportional system of x %(0.5%) of the current value. I suspect it's going to happen because changing the bands is impossible as even he points out...
I'd say there may be some weasel words in that from Paul Staines. He's quoting a report from the CSJ, which was founded by Iain Duncan Smith, Tim Montgomerie, Mark Florman and Philippa Stroud.
Havnig said that, a switch to 0.5% of market value would be a huge improvement imo, which if it includes an abolition of Stamp Duty as proposed by its main proponents will be in the financial interests of a large majority.
The main thing I'd say for RR and KS is not to be panicked by a bit of rhetoric from the Right.
Council Tax raises £46.7 billion according to the OBR or about 1.7% of national income so not huge in the cosmic scheme of things. Not sure how which Business Rates raises - way back in 2014-15, it was twice as much as Council Tax but that's probably changed with the pamdemic.
The plan, AIUI, is 0.5% on occupied residential property and 2.5% on empty homes based on a revaluation. There are roughly 24 million homes in the UK.
Doing a crude calculation on Stodge Towers it would mean £250 extra per year.
The % of Council Revenue coming from Council Tax has increased, at the same time as funding levels have been restricted.
That is because Councils have been kept on a starvation diet since ~2010, in both England and Scotland. But more so in England. In Scotland (one of our North Britons such as @Eabhal will tell us) I believe they had a freeze in cash terms for 6-7 consecutive years.
If we want effective and capable Councils they need a fairly big funding boost, and it will take time to build capacity.
I'd say that conservatively Local Authorities need a funding boost from current levels of something like a quarter to a third in the short term, just for recovery to 2010 levels.
The 0.5% suggestion is interesting but it seems to me there are a few challenges:
1) Switching to this system would lead to increased tax in London and SE and reduced tax in the North. How do you make sure that each council has enough money to spend? It sounds like more lateral transfers would be required but then it becomes a less local tax. 2) How do you decide how much each property is worth? In the 1990s, the valuations were done by driving by. The fact there were bands meant into didn't matter if the valuations were slightly out. However, if you are charging 0.5% then you need more precise valuations e.g. a 5k value difference is worth £25 a year 3) How often would valuations be updated? Again there could be issues for council budgets as house prices change e.g. 10% rise=extra money to spend, 10% fall=austerity
I think that’s right. Personally I think the banding system is probably the right approach, though the higher bands could perhaps pay a bit more.
The issue with it is that it has never been updated and there’s never been a good time for a government to force a revaluation.
If Labour are smart they’ll get a revaluation through now and then they’ll set up an independent body to conduct the revaluations at ten year intervals, a bit like boundary commissions. It might not stop politicians campaigning to freeze the valuations but it will make it politically harder to do so.
And create an automatic revaluation once a house is extended. That can’t be too difficult to do, just tie it into the building control process.
What do you do about things such as - reworking a property to improve energy efficiency can increase the value substantially
?
I think this is why you can’t be too intricate with the valuation/banding process and why I think it needs to be tied to more “headline” items like bedrooms, size, location. You don’t want to discourage improving the housing stock.
How about hearths?
It’s why a land value tax is by far the best system. You can improve your property as much as you like but pay the same tax.
The trouble with all of these proposals is that anything based on a proportion of value that isn't locally set becomes a giant tax on London and the South East. If Barnet council think they're able to set the tax at a lower rate to deliver services then they should be able to do so. Setting a national rate of 0.5% leaves no flexibility and will either result in redistribution (which shouldn't be done with local government taxes) or waste in local governments as they try to spend money they don't need.
Being blunt - council tax is very poor way of raising local taxes - it probably should be a national tax with a percentage of income tax given to councils
No thanks. At least the councils have some say in this and therefore the residents have some say in it. A nationally set tax and settlement process takes local tax policy out of the hands of local people.
So how about 0.3% set by the council + 0.2% wealth
Nope, all set locally. Otherwise it just becomes another redistribution method from the south to the north. I don't have a problem with the concept of the latter but don't hide it under the guise of local taxation. Raise national taxes and do it from those funds if that's the end goal.
Why do you think I split it into 2 - the first bit is set by the council (and can be adjusted) the second (wealth part) is national…
Then add it onto income tax.
No, wealth needs to be taxed as well as income, or otherwise structural inequality in the country is entrenched.
It’s worth noting that it’s the wealthier right wing posters on here who are now objecting to a wealth tax…
A wealth tax would need to have minimum thresholds and fundamentally is someone who owns a £3m house with a £2.4m mortgage wealthy? Would you tax that person on the whole £3m or just the £0.6m?
They live in a £3m house - if they can afford a £2.4m mortgage at 4.5% interest they can afford a 0.5% tax bill
So it's not a wealth tax then because that person doesn't have £3m in wealth, they have £0.6m in wealth.
If Labour seriously tries to impose a property tax remotely like the one proposed you'll know they're actively trying to lose the next election. They'd alienate virtually anyone of any influence in the country, lose London for a generation and please only their core vote and most of them only slightly.
The point of doing it now is that it could be implemented in April 2026 (heck you could actually do it in 2025 at a push) leaving plenty of time for it to be running before the next election.
And many people in Labour areas would be better off ..
They'd lose the entirety of the South East and London for more than a generation and big parts of the East and South West. Plus some of the posher bits of the North.
And so we reach the point why council tax hasn’t changed in 30+ years the political cost is too much so it can only be done on the first few months after an election because otherwise it’s too late.
Worse it them takes 2-3 years to calculate the appropriate rates so that it can’t be implement before year 3/4 of the Parliament just as the next election comes round.
That’s why it’s going to be a percentage of house price, because that can be implemented quickly hopefully providing enough time that people get used to it
I think you're deluding yourself if you think Labour will ever introduce a property tax on gross value but 🤷♂️
The reality of the situation is that Labour will probably do precisely zero on council tax.
The government needs to raise tax revenue and there isn’t many (any) places left where additional revenue can be generated.
It’s why you end up looking at council tax because there isn’t much left that isn’t taxed to the hilt or is untouchable due to election commitments
Council tax should be set by local councils accountable to their local voters for it, not central government
The government can do precisely that by uncapping council tax bands. A local % property tax would be another option.
Probably worth looking at it from the other direction - London will be paying more but surely @dixiedean shouldnt be paying the equivalent of 4% tax a year on what I suspect is a small house / flat
That's a feature not a bug, from the Tories trying to keep the poll tax element.
I work with software something can be both a bug and a feature depending on the audience I’m talking to
I guess the BBC will now have to respond by putting him on QT for six weeks in a row as soon as it is next on.
Allie Hodgkins-Brown @AllieHBNews · 1m Wednesday’s Daily EXPRESS: “Farage Warns: Britain Is At ‘Quite Perilous Point’ “. #TomorrowsPapersToday
To balance things out they could reduce their mentions of him from every second news item to every third? Maybe fill in that slot with Lee Anderson, for even more balance?
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
Yes, I don't think people are quite clocking what a weak candidate Trump is. Without the gift of an opponent too frail to campaign he's going to struggle.
Trump's one win was against a strong, possibly too confident candidate. He lost against Biden.
Farage can go fxck himself . He’s thrown petrol onto the flames .
These riots have been enabled by the toxic discourse of those in government these last 5 years.
These riots have been enabled by 25 years of stratospheric immigration levels.
The other, and probably better explanation, is the utter failure of levelling up (or whatever you want to call it). It the economic prospects of the poorest WWC had improved, you probably wouldn’t be seeing this, anlmost irrespective of immigration levels.
Their prospects have improved.
But, in all societies, there are going to be the underclass dregs who cause trouble and accept no responsibilities.
That’s the point. There are large numbers of folk whose prospects have not improved - despite the political promises of the last decade.
And dismissing them all as “dregs” is pretty contemptible.
You don't accept that people who want to burn down hotels or buses or loot local shops or attack people they don't like the look of are 'dregs' ?
Sure there are millions of people who are struggling but then there always has been and always will be and opportunities for most of them are better now than they were a decade ago.
And the proportion of those who are causing trouble is miniscule.
Nor is there any magic wand to lift all of those who are struggling out of their difficulties - some can be helped through more affordable housing or better training opportunities but for many, unfortunate though it is, their life trajectory was set decades ago.
For example there is no magic wand which is going to allow the London poor to get good housing or for a low skilled fifty year old to earn good pay.
Olympics: certainly a difficult few days for Britain with lots of gold opportunities not being converted. But we are still Top 5 in the table.
Still a chance for us to beat France or more realistically Australia if we can get maybe 4 or 5 in the cycling plus we need to pick up a few others eg as correctly identified by @MaxPB, KJH who has been consistently excellent for years and I really hope she wins!
From my perspective it looks like France 3 as they will continue to win across wide range of events, GB 4 and Aus 5 as their main strength is in swimming which is finished.
Clearly USA and China 1 and 2 no idea which order.
I assume you mean KJT although I am willing to give the heptathlon ago, but I'm not sure of the sex change.
Yes sorry too much time on here 😃😃😃
No need to apologise as it gave me the opportunity for (he says modestly) a good joke. You set it up beautifully for me.
You can have a gold medal in any case because I projected 1 LD seat in Surrey whereas you got 6 which I believe was more in line with your projections
He seems genuinely mentally unstable, I don't think it is an act. Amazing how much 45% of americans love it though.
Who can make sense of it? Maybe he's their favourite mad uncle who is not as bonkers as he seems after a bourbon? Or they hate the libs so much that they would rather follow a certifiable nut job into the jaws of destruction?
This also strongly implies the people of the Tas Tepeler had writing, how else could they do all this. I’ve been suggesting this for years
6000 years before Sumer
That's a hell of a gap. What the heck was going on in all those years? Human civilization letting us down!
Thing is, if the people of the tas Tepeler had sophisticated calendars and actual writing and advanced architecture and urban water systems and complex religions and special shrine towns… all in 10,000BC - how long had they had that? We could be seeing the END of a long ancient civilisation dating back thousands or even tens of thousands of years before that
And all of it without agriculture????
It’s completely confounding. No wonder it annoys archaeologists who tend to ignore it if they can as best they can. It simply doesn’t fit any accepted narrative of human development and it makes them all look like ignorant fools
That’s one reason they pick on Graham Hancock. Also he makes loads of money and they scramble for underpaid tenure
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kambala, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tried to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE. He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!! https://nitter.poast.org/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1820919085741334572#m
Though I'm not convinced it was Trump who wrote this - he spelled 'Stolen' correctly.
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
Farage can go fxck himself . He’s thrown petrol onto the flames .
These riots have been enabled by the toxic discourse of those in government these last 5 years.
These riots have been enabled by 25 years of stratospheric immigration levels.
The other, and probably better explanation, is the utter failure of levelling up (or whatever you want to call it). It the economic prospects of the poorest WWC had improved, you probably wouldn’t be seeing this, anlmost irrespective of immigration levels.
Their prospects have improved.
But, in all societies, there are going to be the underclass dregs who cause trouble and accept no responsibilities.
That’s the point. There are large numbers of folk whose prospects have not improved - despite the political promises of the last decade.
And dismissing them all as “dregs” is pretty contemptible.
Smashing up hotels, being violent, and attacking the police and ethnic minorities. I'm happy to call the people doing this dregs.
I am not talking about the rioters, who are a tiny minority (whose behaviour I do not excuse). But they are the criminal extreme among a much larger number of the disaffected.
Guido is talking about Council tax switching to a proportional system of x %(0.5%) of the current value. I suspect it's going to happen because changing the bands is impossible as even he points out...
I'd say there may be some weasel words in that from Paul Staines. He's quoting a report from the CSJ, which was founded by Iain Duncan Smith, Tim Montgomerie, Mark Florman and Philippa Stroud.
Havnig said that, a switch to 0.5% of market value would be a huge improvement imo, which if it includes an abolition of Stamp Duty as proposed by its main proponents will be in the financial interests of a large majority.
The main thing I'd say for RR and KS is not to be panicked by a bit of rhetoric from the Right.
Council Tax raises £46.7 billion according to the OBR or about 1.7% of national income so not huge in the cosmic scheme of things. Not sure how which Business Rates raises - way back in 2014-15, it was twice as much as Council Tax but that's probably changed with the pamdemic.
The plan, AIUI, is 0.5% on occupied residential property and 2.5% on empty homes based on a revaluation. There are roughly 24 million homes in the UK.
Doing a crude calculation on Stodge Towers it would mean £250 extra per year.
The % of Council Revenue coming from Council Tax has increased, at the same time as funding levels have been restricted.
That is because Councils have been kept on a starvation diet since ~2010, in both England and Scotland. But more so in England. In Scotland (one of our North Britons such as @Eabhal will tell us) I believe they had a freeze in cash terms for 6-7 consecutive years.
If we want effective and capable Councils they need a fairly big funding boost, and it will take time to build capacity.
I'd say that conservatively Local Authorities need a funding boost from current levels of something like a quarter to a third in the short term, just for recovery to 2010 levels.
The 0.5% suggestion is interesting but it seems to me there are a few challenges:
1) Switching to this system would lead to increased tax in London and SE and reduced tax in the North. How do you make sure that each council has enough money to spend? It sounds like more lateral transfers would be required but then it becomes a less local tax. 2) How do you decide how much each property is worth? In the 1990s, the valuations were done by driving by. The fact there were bands meant into didn't matter if the valuations were slightly out. However, if you are charging 0.5% then you need more precise valuations e.g. a 5k value difference is worth £25 a year 3) How often would valuations be updated? Again there could be issues for council budgets as house prices change e.g. 10% rise=extra money to spend, 10% fall=austerity
I think that’s right. Personally I think the banding system is probably the right approach, though the higher bands could perhaps pay a bit more.
The issue with it is that it has never been updated and there’s never been a good time for a government to force a revaluation.
If Labour are smart they’ll get a revaluation through now and then they’ll set up an independent body to conduct the revaluations at ten year intervals, a bit like boundary commissions. It might not stop politicians campaigning to freeze the valuations but it will make it politically harder to do so.
And create an automatic revaluation once a house is extended. That can’t be too difficult to do, just tie it into the building control process.
What do you do about things such as - reworking a property to improve energy efficiency can increase the value substantially
?
I think this is why you can’t be too intricate with the valuation/banding process and why I think it needs to be tied to more “headline” items like bedrooms, size, location. You don’t want to discourage improving the housing stock.
How about hearths?
It’s why a land value tax is by far the best system. You can improve your property as much as you like but pay the same tax.
The trouble with all of these proposals is that anything based on a proportion of value that isn't locally set becomes a giant tax on London and the South East. If Barnet council think they're able to set the tax at a lower rate to deliver services then they should be able to do so. Setting a national rate of 0.5% leaves no flexibility and will either result in redistribution (which shouldn't be done with local government taxes) or waste in local governments as they try to spend money they don't need.
Being blunt - council tax is very poor way of raising local taxes - it probably should be a national tax with a percentage of income tax given to councils
No thanks. At least the councils have some say in this and therefore the residents have some say in it. A nationally set tax and settlement process takes local tax policy out of the hands of local people.
So how about 0.3% set by the council + 0.2% wealth
Nope, all set locally. Otherwise it just becomes another redistribution method from the south to the north. I don't have a problem with the concept of the latter but don't hide it under the guise of local taxation. Raise national taxes and do it from those funds if that's the end goal.
Why do you think I split it into 2 - the first bit is set by the council (and can be adjusted) the second (wealth part) is national…
Then add it onto income tax.
No, wealth needs to be taxed as well as income, or otherwise structural inequality in the country is entrenched.
It’s worth noting that it’s the wealthier right wing posters on here who are now objecting to a wealth tax…
A wealth tax would need to have minimum thresholds and fundamentally is someone who owns a £3m house with a £2.4m mortgage wealthy? Would you tax that person on the whole £3m or just the £0.6m?
It doesn't really matter so long as the property pays the tax on the £3m somewhere.
Either the occupier pays it or the bank they lend the mortgage pays it for that share. In the latter case they will of course whack it onto interest payments so we're back at the full tax on whoever has the economic ownership of the property. Anything else facilitates tax arbitrage through leverage.
Kamala Harris @KamalaHarris I am proud to announce that I've asked @Tim_Walz to be my running mate. As a governor, a coach, a teacher, and a veteran, he's delivered for working families like his. It's great to have him on the team. Now let’s get to work. Join us:
It's a pity that they feel the need to do it in such a schmaltzy way with a camera on each of them and then try to make it sound spontaneous. I know it's the American way but I'm sure we're hoping she'll be different
Though I am getting why Walz. Catch this great tiktok on his new hands free law.
He just exudes normality. Just the sort of bloke you want running stuff.
Don't underestimate the Ed Davey campaigning approach, it works. People want to like their leaders and Kamala and Tim just look so much more positive and fun to be with than the MAGA weirdos.
America might well escape the pit of doom that is Trump2.
What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kambala, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tried to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE. He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!! https://nitter.poast.org/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1820919085741334572#m
Though I'm not convinced it was Trump who wrote this - he spelled 'Stolen' correctly.
It does feel very like someone has told a GPT to respond 'a bit like Donald Trump'. None of the confused-but-catchy hatred or blind lashing out.
This also strongly implies the people of the Tas Tepeler had writing, how else could they do all this. I’ve been suggesting this for years
6000 years before Sumer
That's a hell of a gap. What the heck was going on in all those years? Human civilization letting us down!
The amazing thing about Gobekli Tepe is not the long gap from it until Sumer but the very short gap between the end of the Younger Dryas to its construction. A mere handful of human lifetimes relatively speaking. Just what were humans up to the circa 70k years prior in the equatorial zone, which was relatively inhabitable despite the ice age?
Hancock is evocative because there appears little logic to the idea that the makers of Gobekli Tepe developed such sophisticated knowledge in such a short period of benign climate, but there is no history worthy of the name in the many many millennia prior, in places with an equally benign climate.
I suspect Hancock is probably right in his wider thesis - even if some of his narrower claims are ludicrous (generally added to his central narrative to justify another book or tv show)
The tas Tepeler prove that there were advanced human civilisations much much older than we ever thought possible. The sumer-origin hypothesis is essentially overturned
It is therefore highly possible (if not probable?) that in the tens of thousands of years before now that advanced civilisations have risen and fallen. Leaving barely any trace because of enormous climate and planetary change
Remember the only reason we have the tas Tepeler is because
1. The inhabitants deliberately entombed their temple towns (we don’t know why) - thus protecting them
2. The climate suddenly became much drier and more arid (this may be one of the reasons the culture collapsed) which also preserved the stones
Without that they would be long gone and we’d never have found them
Kamala Harris @KamalaHarris I am proud to announce that I've asked @Tim_Walz to be my running mate. As a governor, a coach, a teacher, and a veteran, he's delivered for working families like his. It's great to have him on the team. Now let’s get to work. Join us:
It's a pity that they feel the need to do it in such a schmaltzy way with a camera on each of them and then try to make it sound spontaneous. I know it's the American way but I'm sure we're hoping she'll be different
Though I am getting why Walz. Catch this great tiktok on his new hands free law.
He just exudes normality. Just the sort of bloke you want running stuff.
Don't underestimate the Ed Davey campaigning approach, it works. People want to like their leaders and Kamala and Tim just look so much more positive and fun to be with than the MAGA weirdos.
America might well escape the pit of doom that is Trump2.
He does seem to project an unthreatening demeanour. He's already being labelled a far left lunatic, I am sure, so a normal presentation will be helpful whether or not that's nonsense.
American political rallies look exciting in isolated clips, but seem like they'd be an absolute pain to sit through - so much waiting, and they go on so long too. Still, nice to see people engaged - even Corbyn rallies could be charming to see people so enthusiastic, despite what they were excited about.
What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kambala, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tried to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE. He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!! https://nitter.poast.org/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1820919085741334572#m
Though I'm not convinced it was Trump who wrote this - he spelled 'Stolen' correctly.
It does feel very like someone has told a GPT to respond 'a bit like Donald Trump'. None of the confused-but-catchy hatred or blind lashing out.
What are the chances that DONald TruMP has to dump his WORST veep choice IN HISTORY days BEFORE the GOP convention and somehow SORT OUT the losing CRASHING mess by SELECTING Haley to STEM the collapse of women voters with CATS!!!!!!
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
An fascinating angle (most will rightly consider unimportant in the current context, but I find interesting) is how what we've just been through (hopefully, it's coming to an end) influences the Green/Lefty protest strategy/dynamic, going forward.
There's a slightly disorienting outbreak of "thank/support the police" postings amongst the greens, from what I can see on twitter, at least.
I took a jog past yet another incident in Belfast to have nosey at what was going on. Minor as it was, ramming a car into an estate agents, the motivation of the message to a pretty long standing & prominent local business in the area couldn't be more clear.
Notably the police here appear to have no issue popping off the odd plastic bullet and are getting their water cannon that they lent out to their counterparts down in the Republic sent back up the road.
Which bears the question, what is wrong with the police over there? They have this kind of kit available.
This also strongly implies the people of the Tas Tepeler had writing, how else could they do all this. I’ve been suggesting this for years
6000 years before Sumer
That's a hell of a gap. What the heck was going on in all those years? Human civilization letting us down!
The amazing thing about Gobekli Tepe is not the long gap from it until Sumer but the very short gap between the end of the Younger Dryas to its construction. A mere handful of human lifetimes relatively speaking. Just what were humans up to the circa 70k years prior in the equatorial zone, which was relatively inhabitable despite the ice age?
Hancock is evocative because there appears little logic to the idea that the makers of Gobekli Tepe developed such sophisticated knowledge in such a short period of benign climate, but there is no history worthy of the name in the many many millennia prior, in places with an equally benign climate.
I suspect Hancock is probably right in his wider thesis - even if some of his narrower claims are ludicrous (generally added to his central narrative to justify another book or tv show)
The tas Tepeler prove that there were advanced human civilisations much much older than we ever thought possible. The sumer-origin hypothesis is essentially overturned
It is therefore highly possible (if not probable?) that in the tens of thousands of years before now that advanced civilisations have risen and fallen. Leaving barely any trace because of enormous climate and planetary change
Remember the only reason we have the tas Tepeler is because
1. The inhabitants deliberately entombed their temple towns (we don’t know why) - thus protecting them
2. The climate suddenly became much drier and more arid (this may be one of the reasons the culture collapsed) which also preserved the stones
Without that they would be long gone and we’d never have found them
Hancock doesn’t claim that such a civilisation was making iPhones and space rockets. But it’s highly plausible (probable?) that it was transoceanic, had a sophisticated understanding of the heavens etc… and who knows, perhaps there was science and enlightenment known to them that is unknown to us, because we followed a different technology tree (ie hydrocarbons).
This also strongly implies the people of the Tas Tepeler had writing, how else could they do all this. I’ve been suggesting this for years
6000 years before Sumer
That's a hell of a gap. What the heck was going on in all those years? Human civilization letting us down!
The amazing thing about Gobekli Tepe is not the long gap from it until Sumer but the very short gap between the end of the Younger Dryas to its construction. A mere handful of human lifetimes relatively speaking. Just what were humans up to the circa 70k years prior in the equatorial zone, which was relatively inhabitable despite the ice age?
Hancock is evocative because there appears little logic to the idea that the makers of Gobekli Tepe developed such sophisticated knowledge in such a short period of benign climate, but there is no history worthy of the name in the many many millennia prior, in places with an equally benign climate.
A lot of perfectly inhabitable territory was flooded at the end of the Ice Age, resulting in little to no archaeology being carried out in such areas.
Kamala Harris @KamalaHarris I am proud to announce that I've asked @Tim_Walz to be my running mate. As a governor, a coach, a teacher, and a veteran, he's delivered for working families like his. It's great to have him on the team. Now let’s get to work. Join us:
It's a pity that they feel the need to do it in such a schmaltzy way with a camera on each of them and then try to make it sound spontaneous. I know it's the American way but I'm sure we're hoping she'll be different
Though I am getting why Walz. Catch this great tiktok on his new hands free law.
He just exudes normality. Just the sort of bloke you want running stuff.
Don't underestimate the Ed Davey campaigning approach, it works. People want to like their leaders and Kamala and Tim just look so much more positive and fun to be with than the MAGA weirdos.
America might well escape the pit of doom that is Trump2.
That's great! Is that his daughter or grand daughter?
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
At the moment I think we could see the first Republican presidential election win in the popular vote and EC since Bush beat Kerry 20 years ago in 2004. Harris-Walz is the most leftwing Democratic ticket since McGovern-Shriver in 1972
The GOP haven't come within 2.5m of the popular vote since 2004, that is a very bold prediction indeed.
That's only 4 elections. It's like saying anyone predicting a Labour victory in the UK in 2024 was making a very bold prediction indeed because the Conservatives had beaten Labour 4 elections in a row (and by bigger margins than Dems beat Republicans in the last 4 US presidential elections).
Kamala Harris @KamalaHarris I am proud to announce that I've asked @Tim_Walz to be my running mate. As a governor, a coach, a teacher, and a veteran, he's delivered for working families like his. It's great to have him on the team. Now let’s get to work. Join us:
It's a pity that they feel the need to do it in such a schmaltzy way with a camera on each of them and then try to make it sound spontaneous. I know it's the American way but I'm sure we're hoping she'll be different
Though I am getting why Walz. Catch this great tiktok on his new hands free law.
He just exudes normality. Just the sort of bloke you want running stuff.
Don't underestimate the Ed Davey campaigning approach, it works. People want to like their leaders and Kamala and Tim just look so much more positive and fun to be with than the MAGA weirdos.
America might well escape the pit of doom that is Trump2.
That's great! Is that his daughter or grand daughter?
BBC News - US arrests Pakistani national in alleged plot to kill Trump
A Pakistani man with ties to the Iranian government has been charged by the US Department of Justice for allegedly plotting to assassinate US government officials.
I took a jog past yet another incident in Belfast to have nosey at what was going on. Minor as it was, ramming a car into an estate agents, the motivation of the message to a pretty long standing & prominent local business in the area couldn't be more clear.
Notably the police here appear to have no issue popping off the odd plastic bullet and are getting their water cannon that they lent out to their counterparts down in the Republic sent back up the road.
Which bears the question, what is wrong with the police over there? They have this kind of kit available.
Good grief, BBC. Can you not interview any Americans on the US election who aren’t Republicans ? WTF is Frank fucking Lunz - long time GOP propagandist - the go to guy on analysing Harris’s VP pick ? And presented as some sort of objective commentator.
They were all Democrats on Newsnight and BBC1, even Luntz said Harris was favourite in his view. Not a single Republican on there!
Posters on here post now and again that Lunz is a GOP propagandist.
I just don't see that.
Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant and pollster,[1][2] best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz
I’m hoping you’re being sarcastic.
I think there is a spectrum from obvious partisan to actual propagandist. I'm sure I've seen him say occasionally critical things about the GOP, or at least be measured, which the full on propagandists would never do.
Read his book “Words that Work”. He literally wrote the manual on modern Republican propaganda.
He’s not a fan of Trump, but he is a long time propagandist.
This also strongly implies the people of the Tas Tepeler had writing, how else could they do all this. I’ve been suggesting this for years
6000 years before Sumer
That's a hell of a gap. What the heck was going on in all those years? Human civilization letting us down!
The amazing thing about Gobekli Tepe is not the long gap from it until Sumer but the very short gap between the end of the Younger Dryas to its construction. A mere handful of human lifetimes relatively speaking. Just what were humans up to the circa 70k years prior in the equatorial zone, which was relatively inhabitable despite the ice age?
Hancock is evocative because there appears little logic to the idea that the makers of Gobekli Tepe developed such sophisticated knowledge in such a short period of benign climate, but there is no history worthy of the name in the many many millennia prior, in places with an equally benign climate.
I suspect Hancock is probably right in his wider thesis - even if some of his narrower claims are ludicrous (generally added to his central narrative to justify another book or tv show)
The tas Tepeler prove that there were advanced human civilisations much much older than we ever thought possible. The sumer-origin hypothesis is essentially overturned
It is therefore highly possible (if not probable?) that in the tens of thousands of years before now that advanced civilisations have risen and fallen. Leaving barely any trace because of enormous climate and planetary change
Remember the only reason we have the tas Tepeler is because
1. The inhabitants deliberately entombed their temple towns (we don’t know why) - thus protecting them
2. The climate suddenly became much drier and more arid (this may be one of the reasons the culture collapsed) which also preserved the stones
Without that they would be long gone and we’d never have found them
It was also located in an area NOT flooded at the end of the Ice Age. Compare the Sunda Shelf, Persian Gulf, Doggerland, etc.
Olympics: certainly a difficult few days for Britain with lots of gold opportunities not being converted. But we are still Top 5 in the table.
Still a chance for us to beat France or more realistically Australia if we can get maybe 4 or 5 in the cycling plus we need to pick up a few others eg as correctly identified by @MaxPB, KJH who has been consistently excellent for years and I really hope she wins!
From my perspective it looks like France 3 as they will continue to win across wide range of events, GB 4 and Aus 5 as their main strength is in swimming which is finished.
Clearly USA and China 1 and 2 no idea which order.
I assume you mean KJT although I am willing to give the heptathlon ago, but I'm not sure of the sex change.
Yes sorry too much time on here 😃😃😃
No need to apologise as it gave me the opportunity for (he says modestly) a good joke. You set it up beautifully for me.
You can have a gold medal in any case because I projected 1 LD seat in Surrey whereas you got 6 which I believe was more in line with your projections
Hopefully we get them back next time. Maybe 😈
That is kind of you. I was spot on with the seat numbers, but got lucky because we missed one of my dead certs, but got one I wasn't expecting.
A month into a new government: this forum is debating the advantages of Chinese-style censorship and @Roger posts something like this (on the previous thread).
"Harris/Walz works well. It has notes of Vienna and an elegant pre war Europe
Harris /Shapiro is a little too Board of Deputies"
Extraordinary.
I loathe the Board of deputies. They most certainly do NOT speak for British Jews. They speak for Netanyahu and Likud. However that was not the reason for my quip. That was simply a shorthand to say that Shapiro does too and for that reason Walz is the more desirable choice
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
Yes, we have to remember in the UK Harris would win comfortably, even Gore, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry would have won comfortably. In US terms the UK is a blue state, probably similar to New Jersey for instance not a swing state that will decide the election. Only Reform voters would clearly vote for Trump here
Guido is talking about Council tax switching to a proportional system of x %(0.5%) of the current value. I suspect it's going to happen because changing the bands is impossible as even he points out...
I'd say there may be some weasel words in that from Paul Staines. He's quoting a report from the CSJ, which was founded by Iain Duncan Smith, Tim Montgomerie, Mark Florman and Philippa Stroud.
Havnig said that, a switch to 0.5% of market value would be a huge improvement imo, which if it includes an abolition of Stamp Duty as proposed by its main proponents will be in the financial interests of a large majority.
The main thing I'd say for RR and KS is not to be panicked by a bit of rhetoric from the Right.
Council Tax raises £46.7 billion according to the OBR or about 1.7% of national income so not huge in the cosmic scheme of things. Not sure how which Business Rates raises - way back in 2014-15, it was twice as much as Council Tax but that's probably changed with the pamdemic.
The plan, AIUI, is 0.5% on occupied residential property and 2.5% on empty homes based on a revaluation. There are roughly 24 million homes in the UK.
Doing a crude calculation on Stodge Towers it would mean £250 extra per year.
The % of Council Revenue coming from Council Tax has increased, at the same time as funding levels have been restricted.
That is because Councils have been kept on a starvation diet since ~2010, in both England and Scotland. But more so in England. In Scotland (one of our North Britons such as @Eabhal will tell us) I believe they had a freeze in cash terms for 6-7 consecutive years.
If we want effective and capable Councils they need a fairly big funding boost, and it will take time to build capacity.
I'd say that conservatively Local Authorities need a funding boost from current levels of something like a quarter to a third in the short term, just for recovery to 2010 levels.
The 0.5% suggestion is interesting but it seems to me there are a few challenges:
1) Switching to this system would lead to increased tax in London and SE and reduced tax in the North. How do you make sure that each council has enough money to spend? It sounds like more lateral transfers would be required but then it becomes a less local tax. 2) How do you decide how much each property is worth? In the 1990s, the valuations were done by driving by. The fact there were bands meant into didn't matter if the valuations were slightly out. However, if you are charging 0.5% then you need more precise valuations e.g. a 5k value difference is worth £25 a year 3) How often would valuations be updated? Again there could be issues for council budgets as house prices change e.g. 10% rise=extra money to spend, 10% fall=austerity
The Proportional Property tax proposals have thoughts about all of that, which gives possible ideas: https://fairershare.org.uk/faq/
I took a jog past yet another incident in Belfast to have nosey at what was going on. Minor as it was, ramming a car into an estate agents, the motivation of the message to a pretty long standing & prominent local business in the area couldn't be more clear.
Notably the police here appear to have no issue popping off the odd plastic bullet and are getting their water cannon that they lent out to their counterparts down in the Republic sent back up the road.
Which bears the question, what is wrong with the police over there? They have this kind of kit available.
Only in NI is it legal to use water cannon.
Are you sure on that? Whats the problem over there, water use restrictions?
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
He [Trump] wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him.
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
Yes, we have to remember in the UK Harris would win comfortably, even Gore, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry would have won comfortably. In US terms the UK is a blue state, probably similar to New Jersey for instance not a swing state that will decide the election. Only Reform voters would clearly vote for Trump here
From a betting perspective I think it's really important to see things through that lens. Most on here in 2016 were for Hillary and few could see Trump's appeal.
But this is a betting site, and it's best to bet with your head, not with your heart. I still think Trump will do it in 2024, because the US economy is more dire than the headlines let on (and the headlines are pretty dire). Trump understands his audience, hence the no tax on tips policy. As I say, he's a Boris type character, a posho who working stiffs seem to love. I have bet accordingly.
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
Yes, we have to remember in the UK Harris would win comfortably, even Gore, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry would have won comfortably. In US terms the UK is a blue state, probably similar to New Jersey for instance not a swing state that will decide the election. Only Reform voters would clearly vote for Trump here
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
Yes, we have to remember in the UK Harris would win comfortably, even Gore, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry would have won comfortably. In US terms the UK is a blue state, probably similar to New Jersey for instance not a swing state that will decide the election. Only Reform voters would clearly vote for Trump here
From a betting perspective I think it's really important to see things through that lens. Most on here in 2016 were for Hillary and few could see Trump's appeal.
But this is a betting site, and it's best to bet with your head, not with your heart. I still think Trump will do it in 2024, because the US economy is more dire than the headlines let on (and the headlines are pretty dire). Trump understands his audience, hence the no tax on tips policy. As I say, he's a Boris type character, a posho who working stiffs seem to love. I have bet accordingly.
I think it is 50/50 at the moment, which gives advantage to the GOP as they are more motivated to use the power of the state houses to disrupt things. But he could still win outright.
Guido is talking about Council tax switching to a proportional system of x %(0.5%) of the current value. I suspect it's going to happen because changing the bands is impossible as even he points out...
I'd say there may be some weasel words in that from Paul Staines. He's quoting a report from the CSJ, which was founded by Iain Duncan Smith, Tim Montgomerie, Mark Florman and Philippa Stroud.
Havnig said that, a switch to 0.5% of market value would be a huge improvement imo, which if it includes an abolition of Stamp Duty as proposed by its main proponents will be in the financial interests of a large majority.
The main thing I'd say for RR and KS is not to be panicked by a bit of rhetoric from the Right.
Council Tax raises £46.7 billion according to the OBR or about 1.7% of national income so not huge in the cosmic scheme of things. Not sure how which Business Rates raises - way back in 2014-15, it was twice as much as Council Tax but that's probably changed with the pamdemic.
The plan, AIUI, is 0.5% on occupied residential property and 2.5% on empty homes based on a revaluation. There are roughly 24 million homes in the UK.
Doing a crude calculation on Stodge Towers it would mean £250 extra per year.
The % of Council Revenue coming from Council Tax has increased, at the same time as funding levels have been restricted.
That is because Councils have been kept on a starvation diet since ~2010, in both England and Scotland. But more so in England. In Scotland (one of our North Britons such as @Eabhal will tell us) I believe they had a freeze in cash terms for 6-7 consecutive years.
If we want effective and capable Councils they need a fairly big funding boost, and it will take time to build capacity.
I'd say that conservatively Local Authorities need a funding boost from current levels of something like a quarter to a third in the short term, just for recovery to 2010 levels.
The 0.5% suggestion is interesting but it seems to me there are a few challenges:
1) Switching to this system would lead to increased tax in London and SE and reduced tax in the North. How do you make sure that each council has enough money to spend? It sounds like more lateral transfers would be required but then it becomes a less local tax. 2) How do you decide how much each property is worth? In the 1990s, the valuations were done by driving by. The fact there were bands meant into didn't matter if the valuations were slightly out. However, if you are charging 0.5% then you need more precise valuations e.g. a 5k value difference is worth £25 a year 3) How often would valuations be updated? Again there could be issues for council budgets as house prices change e.g. 10% rise=extra money to spend, 10% fall=austerity
The Proportional Property tax proposals have thoughts about all of that, which gives possible ideas: https://fairershare.org.uk/faq/
One point of order on that, they basically say well you can use sales data + algorithm to value propeties. US tech start-up literally bust themselves using such an approach to flip properties in large part because they found their price estimates were often extremely inaccurate. Do we back government to create better tech than silicon valley talent loaded companies, who couldn't make it work?
David Herdson @DavidHerdson The racist right is trying to simultaneously:
1. Establish a narrative that the government has 'lost control'; 2. Put themselves forward as the 'voice of real Britain'; 3. Intimidate locations into withdrawing from asylum services; 4. Provoke a response from ethnic minorities.
They are being enabled by elements of social, published and broadcast media which are happy to push their line and spread their propaganda.
Regulators need to be much more proactive in enforcing existing rules. Police also need to be more proactive in enforcing the law and demonstrating that they are doing so.
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
He [Trump] wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him.
Nice Freudian slip there
I'm the king of typos, sorry.
Funnily enough, there probably is a psychoanalytic perspective where we can describe Trump as the Freduian Id for the American working classes. Certainly in 2016, he was a kind of conduit for their rage. Dunno if that will hold true in 2024. But I tend to view people voting for Trump as voting for a symbol rather than a person, or even a coherent ideology. He is their messenger, in a weird way that makes no sense to us on the other side of the pond.
My main problem with any new tax is it always starts off as only x%, no different to now etc, then 10 years down the line its always been nudged up and up.
I took a jog past yet another incident in Belfast to have nosey at what was going on. Minor as it was, ramming a car into an estate agents, the motivation of the message to a pretty long standing & prominent local business in the area couldn't be more clear.
Notably the police here appear to have no issue popping off the odd plastic bullet and are getting their water cannon that they lent out to their counterparts down in the Republic sent back up the road.
Which bears the question, what is wrong with the police over there? They have this kind of kit available.
Only in NI is it legal to use water cannon.
Are you sure on that? Whats the problem over there, water use restrictions?
Only six water cannons are operational in the United Kingdom, all held by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI); these are Somati RCV9000 Vehicle Mounted Water Cannons built on GINAF chassis, which after extensive evaluation by a Defence Scientific Advisory Council sub-committee as a less-lethal replacement of baton rounds, began to enter service with the PSNI from 2004 onwards.[39][40][41] Water cannon use outside Northern Ireland is not approved, and would require the statutory authorisation from the Home Secretary for use in England and Wales[42] or the parliament of Scotland for use in Scotland.[citation needed]
In June 2014, London's Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime Stephen Greenhalgh authorised the Metropolitan Police to buy three second-hand Wasserwerfer 9000s from the German Federal Police. Mayor of London Boris Johnson said that the purchase had been authorised before Parliamentary approval, as the three cannons cost £218,000 to purchase and would require a further £125,000 of work before being deemed suitable for service, as opposed to £870,000 for a single new machine.[43] But after a study of their safety and effectiveness, Home Secretary Theresa May said in Parliament in July 2015 that she had decided not to license them for use.[44] They were sold in November 2018 with the intention that they were to be broken up for spare parts.[45]
David Herdson @DavidHerdson The racist right is trying to simultaneously:
1. Establish a narrative that the government has 'lost control'; 2. Put themselves forward as the 'voice of real Britain'; 3. Intimidate locations into withdrawing from asylum services; 4. Provoke a response from ethnic minorities.
They are being enabled by elements of social, published and broadcast media which are happy to push their line and spread their propaganda.
Regulators need to be much more proactive in enforcing existing rules. Police also need to be more proactive in enforcing the law and demonstrating that they are doing so.
Immigrants are being scapegoated for the country’s problems in a not dissimilar way the EU was a decade back. It’s a more toxic gambit, of course.
I took a jog past yet another incident in Belfast to have nosey at what was going on. Minor as it was, ramming a car into an estate agents, the motivation of the message to a pretty long standing & prominent local business in the area couldn't be more clear.
Notably the police here appear to have no issue popping off the odd plastic bullet and are getting their water cannon that they lent out to their counterparts down in the Republic sent back up the road.
Which bears the question, what is wrong with the police over there? They have this kind of kit available.
Only in NI is it legal to use water cannon.
Are you sure on that? Whats the problem over there, water use restrictions?
Only six water cannons are operational in the United Kingdom, all held by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI); these are Somati RCV9000 Vehicle Mounted Water Cannons built on GINAF chassis, which after extensive evaluation by a Defence Scientific Advisory Council sub-committee as a less-lethal replacement of baton rounds, began to enter service with the PSNI from 2004 onwards.[39][40][41] Water cannon use outside Northern Ireland is not approved, and would require the statutory authorisation from the Home Secretary for use in England and Wales[42] or the parliament of Scotland for use in Scotland.[citation needed]
In June 2014, London's Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime Stephen Greenhalgh authorised the Metropolitan Police to buy three second-hand Wasserwerfer 9000s from the German Federal Police. Mayor of London Boris Johnson said that the purchase had been authorised before Parliamentary approval, as the three cannons cost £218,000 to purchase and would require a further £125,000 of work before being deemed suitable for service, as opposed to £870,000 for a single new machine.[43] But after a study of their safety and effectiveness, Home Secretary Theresa May said in Parliament in July 2015 that she had decided not to license them for use.[44] They were sold in November 2018 with the intention that they were to be broken up for spare parts.[45]
David Herdson @DavidHerdson The racist right is trying to simultaneously:
1. Establish a narrative that the government has 'lost control'; 2. Put themselves forward as the 'voice of real Britain'; 3. Intimidate locations into withdrawing from asylum services; 4. Provoke a response from ethnic minorities.
They are being enabled by elements of social, published and broadcast media which are happy to push their line and spread their propaganda.
Regulators need to be much more proactive in enforcing existing rules. Police also need to be more proactive in enforcing the law and demonstrating that they are doing so.
Immigrants are being scapegoated for the country’s problems in a not dissimilar way the EU was a decade back. It’s a more toxic gambit, of course.
If immigration is a causal factor behind some of our problems, is it scapegoating immigrants to point that out?
Chinese state TV pulled the plug on a live broadcast at the weekend, as democratic Taiwan's badminton team beat China in the men's doubles to take Olympic gold in Paris. https://x.com/WilliamYang120/status/1820716382805434618
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
Yes, we have to remember in the UK Harris would win comfortably, even Gore, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry would have won comfortably. In US terms the UK is a blue state, probably similar to New Jersey for instance not a swing state that will decide the election. Only Reform voters would clearly vote for Trump here
...and Johnson, Truss, Braverman, Jenrick... oh I've lost interest in the list now, because it'll be a really long list.
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
Yes, we have to remember in the UK Harris would win comfortably, even Gore, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry would have won comfortably. In US terms the UK is a blue state, probably similar to New Jersey for instance not a swing state that will decide the election. Only Reform voters would clearly vote for Trump here
I don't understand what the relevance is of saying which candidate in an American election would win in another country like the UK. We don't usually discuss which party in a UK election would win if American voters were choosing between them.
I took a jog past yet another incident in Belfast to have nosey at what was going on. Minor as it was, ramming a car into an estate agents, the motivation of the message to a pretty long standing & prominent local business in the area couldn't be more clear.
Notably the police here appear to have no issue popping off the odd plastic bullet and are getting their water cannon that they lent out to their counterparts down in the Republic sent back up the road.
Which bears the question, what is wrong with the police over there? They have this kind of kit available.
Only in NI is it legal to use water cannon.
Are you sure on that? Whats the problem over there, water use restrictions?
Only six water cannons are operational in the United Kingdom, all held by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI); these are Somati RCV9000 Vehicle Mounted Water Cannons built on GINAF chassis, which after extensive evaluation by a Defence Scientific Advisory Council sub-committee as a less-lethal replacement of baton rounds, began to enter service with the PSNI from 2004 onwards.[39][40][41] Water cannon use outside Northern Ireland is not approved, and would require the statutory authorisation from the Home Secretary for use in England and Wales[42] or the parliament of Scotland for use in Scotland.[citation needed]
In June 2014, London's Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime Stephen Greenhalgh authorised the Metropolitan Police to buy three second-hand Wasserwerfer 9000s from the German Federal Police. Mayor of London Boris Johnson said that the purchase had been authorised before Parliamentary approval, as the three cannons cost £218,000 to purchase and would require a further £125,000 of work before being deemed suitable for service, as opposed to £870,000 for a single new machine.[43] But after a study of their safety and effectiveness, Home Secretary Theresa May said in Parliament in July 2015 that she had decided not to license them for use.[44] They were sold in November 2018 with the intention that they were to be broken up for spare parts.[45]
Thats not the same as saying you cant use them, that refers to the particular kit that Boris Johnson got and based on the above the Home Secretary therefore can nod through the use of water cannon so why not?. They can be put on a boat and sent over
In addition plastic bullets are available and all UK police forces train for use, I havent seen them deployed in England despite the widespread impression that this is all very serious disorder.
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
Yes, we have to remember in the UK Harris would win comfortably, even Gore, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry would have won comfortably. In US terms the UK is a blue state, probably similar to New Jersey for instance not a swing state that will decide the election. Only Reform voters would clearly vote for Trump here
I don't understand what the relevance is of saying which candidate in an American election would win in another country like the UK. We don't usually discuss which party in a UK election would win if American voters were choosing between them.
The relevance is it colours how we might interpret US politics based on which way we would likely vote. It's also easier to do because there are only two choices, whereas in our system it may be dominated by two but there are sufficient other options to make it harder to do the reverse. And we never discuss which party in a UK election would win if american voters were choosing because it's not something they would ever bother to ask as I doubt american voters give two shits about our elections, whereas we rightly do care about their because it is more impactful on the world.
I took a jog past yet another incident in Belfast to have nosey at what was going on. Minor as it was, ramming a car into an estate agents, the motivation of the message to a pretty long standing & prominent local business in the area couldn't be more clear.
Notably the police here appear to have no issue popping off the odd plastic bullet and are getting their water cannon that they lent out to their counterparts down in the Republic sent back up the road.
Which bears the question, what is wrong with the police over there? They have this kind of kit available.
Only in NI is it legal to use water cannon.
Are you sure on that? Whats the problem over there, water use restrictions?
Only six water cannons are operational in the United Kingdom, all held by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI); these are Somati RCV9000 Vehicle Mounted Water Cannons built on GINAF chassis, which after extensive evaluation by a Defence Scientific Advisory Council sub-committee as a less-lethal replacement of baton rounds, began to enter service with the PSNI from 2004 onwards.[39][40][41] Water cannon use outside Northern Ireland is not approved, and would require the statutory authorisation from the Home Secretary for use in England and Wales[42] or the parliament of Scotland for use in Scotland.[citation needed]
In June 2014, London's Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime Stephen Greenhalgh authorised the Metropolitan Police to buy three second-hand Wasserwerfer 9000s from the German Federal Police. Mayor of London Boris Johnson said that the purchase had been authorised before Parliamentary approval, as the three cannons cost £218,000 to purchase and would require a further £125,000 of work before being deemed suitable for service, as opposed to £870,000 for a single new machine.[43] But after a study of their safety and effectiveness, Home Secretary Theresa May said in Parliament in July 2015 that she had decided not to license them for use.[44] They were sold in November 2018 with the intention that they were to be broken up for spare parts.[45]
Thats not the same as saying you cant use them, that refers to the particular kit that Boris Johnson got and based on the above the Home Secretary therefore can nod through the use of water cannon so why not?. They can be put on a boat and sent over
In addition plastic bullets are available and all UK police forces train for use, I havent seen them deployed in England despite the widespread impression that this is all very serious disorder.
From reference [42] above:
Theresa May rejects use of water cannon in England and Wales
Home secretary says police ‘will never’ deploy military-style equipment on the streets after rejecting request for use of water cannon
Vikram Dodd Thu 23 Jul 2015 17.29 BST
The home secretary has signalled that she will never approve the use of water cannon on the streets of England and Wales, fearing it may damage police legitimacy and the principle of policing by consent. Explaining her rejection of an application for their use that was backed by the London mayor, Boris Johnson, Theresa May said police in the UK should never routinely carry guns or use military-style equipment.
Johnson had already bought three second-hand water cannon units from Germany, hoping that May would authorise their use. But it emerged last week that the units were riddled with faults, and May said on Thursday that she would not permit them to be used, even if the 67 faults were rectified.
During a speech in Brixton, south London, in which she promised to subject policing to a raft of further radical reform, May said: “Our police have never and will never routinely carry guns or hide behind military-style equipment.” On her veto of water cannon, she said: “I was also acutely conscious of the potential impact of water cannon on perceptions of police legitimacy and the very principle of policing by consent.”
Turning down the application earlier this month, May told MPs that her decision followed exhaustive medical and scientific tests which led her to conclude that the German cannon had the potential to cause serious injuries including spinal fractures, that there were doubts over their usefulness in fast-moving riots, and that they were likely to damage the British tradition of policing by consent.
Hold on...isn't that an arb? You put 100 on Trump and 100 on Harris, and depending on who wins you get 202 or 214 back.
Strict arbitrage usually implies no risk.
There is risk in this market, this far out.
But yes, you're correct in your calculation, although you would need to deduct (and adjust, slightly) the stakes to calculate (equal) profit on either outcome.
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
2016 Trump was able to spin himself as caring for the ordinary Joe Sixpack.
2024 Trump is bitter and obsessed with himself.
He's a preening narcissist that doesn't give a damn about ordinary Joes and just wants to be great and screw anyone who says he's not the best President ever.
David Herdson @DavidHerdson The racist right is trying to simultaneously:
1. Establish a narrative that the government has 'lost control'; 2. Put themselves forward as the 'voice of real Britain'; 3. Intimidate locations into withdrawing from asylum services; 4. Provoke a response from ethnic minorities.
They are being enabled by elements of social, published and broadcast media which are happy to push their line and spread their propaganda.
Regulators need to be much more proactive in enforcing existing rules. Police also need to be more proactive in enforcing the law and demonstrating that they are doing so.
Immigrants are being scapegoated for the country’s problems in a not dissimilar way the EU was a decade back. It’s a more toxic gambit, of course.
If immigration is a causal factor behind some of our problems, is it scapegoating immigrants to point that out?
I took a jog past yet another incident in Belfast to have nosey at what was going on. Minor as it was, ramming a car into an estate agents, the motivation of the message to a pretty long standing & prominent local business in the area couldn't be more clear.
Notably the police here appear to have no issue popping off the odd plastic bullet and are getting their water cannon that they lent out to their counterparts down in the Republic sent back up the road.
Which bears the question, what is wrong with the police over there? They have this kind of kit available.
Only in NI is it legal to use water cannon.
Are you sure on that? Whats the problem over there, water use restrictions?
Only six water cannons are operational in the United Kingdom, all held by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI); these are Somati RCV9000 Vehicle Mounted Water Cannons built on GINAF chassis, which after extensive evaluation by a Defence Scientific Advisory Council sub-committee as a less-lethal replacement of baton rounds, began to enter service with the PSNI from 2004 onwards.[39][40][41] Water cannon use outside Northern Ireland is not approved, and would require the statutory authorisation from the Home Secretary for use in England and Wales[42] or the parliament of Scotland for use in Scotland.[citation needed]
In June 2014, London's Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime Stephen Greenhalgh authorised the Metropolitan Police to buy three second-hand Wasserwerfer 9000s from the German Federal Police. Mayor of London Boris Johnson said that the purchase had been authorised before Parliamentary approval, as the three cannons cost £218,000 to purchase and would require a further £125,000 of work before being deemed suitable for service, as opposed to £870,000 for a single new machine.[43] But after a study of their safety and effectiveness, Home Secretary Theresa May said in Parliament in July 2015 that she had decided not to license them for use.[44] They were sold in November 2018 with the intention that they were to be broken up for spare parts.[45]
Thats not the same as saying you cant use them, that refers to the particular kit that Boris Johnson got and based on the above the Home Secretary therefore can nod through the use of water cannon so why not?. They can be put on a boat and sent over
In addition plastic bullets are available and all UK police forces train for use, I havent seen them deployed in England despite the widespread impression that this is all very serious disorder.
From reference [42] above:
Theresa May rejects use of water cannon in England and Wales
Home secretary says police ‘will never’ deploy military-style equipment on the streets after rejecting request for use of water cannon
Vikram Dodd Thu 23 Jul 2015 17.29 BST
The home secretary has signalled that she will never approve the use of water cannon on the streets of England and Wales, fearing it may damage police legitimacy and the principle of policing by consent. Explaining her rejection of an application for their use that was backed by the London mayor, Boris Johnson, Theresa May said police in the UK should never routinely carry guns or use military-style equipment.
Johnson had already bought three second-hand water cannon units from Germany, hoping that May would authorise their use. But it emerged last week that the units were riddled with faults, and May said on Thursday that she would not permit them to be used, even if the 67 faults were rectified.
During a speech in Brixton, south London, in which she promised to subject policing to a raft of further radical reform, May said: “Our police have never and will never routinely carry guns or hide behind military-style equipment.” On her veto of water cannon, she said: “I was also acutely conscious of the potential impact of water cannon on perceptions of police legitimacy and the very principle of policing by consent.”
Turning down the application earlier this month, May told MPs that her decision followed exhaustive medical and scientific tests which led her to conclude that the German cannon had the potential to cause serious injuries including spinal fractures, that there were doubts over their usefulness in fast-moving riots, and that they were likely to damage the British tradition of policing by consent.
Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.
I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.
Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.
Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.
I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
2016 Trump was able to spin himself as caring for the ordinary Joe Sixpack.
2024 Trump is bitter and obsessed with himself.
He's a preening narcissist that doesn't give a damn about ordinary Joes and just wants to be great and screw anyone who says he's not the best President ever.
Certainly my opinion, but not the one I get from my American mates.
As I say it's a betting site, and we have a very Euro-centric view here. The idea of Trump winning (again) is weird to us. He's outside the overton window for what any of us, left or right, would vote for.
In America, where tribal identities are different, I think Trump's persona reflects a lot of those identities, and people are voting for 'their guy'.
Trying to apply British political wisdom to why Trump is so damn inexplicably popular misses the point - we don't get it, because we're not of the culture.
I think Trump will win, but even if he loses, he will lose by a narrow margin. Whereas if he was a UK politician he'd make Farage look popular.
US culture isn't ours, which is why, combined with the dire US economy under Biden, I'm still predicting a Trump win.
The people directing the violence, when they come to court, won't have local addresses.
If they ever do. I also don't think it is disputed that some people are travelling to cause trouble, the Nazi tattoo bloke from Stoke appeared in Sunderland, however there was a fair bit of initial reaction of well its not folk from round here that would ever do such things and the media reported as fact that it was basically all out of towners i.e. the travelling EDL boys.
I think it is more complicated than that e.g. there is a lot of young youths taking opportunity to have a ruck / steal stuff, who I don't think are there for much more than that. They are fairly easy to spot on their e-bikes in balaclavas. They didn't come on the train from half the country away.
"One in three Brits support this week's anti-immigration protests"
"The broader peaceful protests have garnered the support of one in three (34 per cent) members of the public, but more than half (54 per cent) opposed. Reform UK voters backed the wider peaceful protests (81 per cent), but they are the only party to show any great deal of support for them. Fewer than one in five Labour and Lib Dem (18 to 19 per cent) voters supported the protests, while Conservatives were split on the matter (43 per support and 48 per cent oppose). The YouGov poll suggests sympathy for those taking part in the protests is broader. Six in ten Brits (58 per cent) said they had a fair amount of sympathy for those involved in the wider peaceful protests. This included majorities from all party voters."
I took a jog past yet another incident in Belfast to have nosey at what was going on. Minor as it was, ramming a car into an estate agents, the motivation of the message to a pretty long standing & prominent local business in the area couldn't be more clear.
Notably the police here appear to have no issue popping off the odd plastic bullet and are getting their water cannon that they lent out to their counterparts down in the Republic sent back up the road.
Which bears the question, what is wrong with the police over there? They have this kind of kit available.
Only in NI is it legal to use water cannon.
Are you sure on that? Whats the problem over there, water use restrictions?
Only six water cannons are operational in the United Kingdom, all held by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI); these are Somati RCV9000 Vehicle Mounted Water Cannons built on GINAF chassis, which after extensive evaluation by a Defence Scientific Advisory Council sub-committee as a less-lethal replacement of baton rounds, began to enter service with the PSNI from 2004 onwards.[39][40][41] Water cannon use outside Northern Ireland is not approved, and would require the statutory authorisation from the Home Secretary for use in England and Wales[42] or the parliament of Scotland for use in Scotland.[citation needed]
In June 2014, London's Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime Stephen Greenhalgh authorised the Metropolitan Police to buy three second-hand Wasserwerfer 9000s from the German Federal Police. Mayor of London Boris Johnson said that the purchase had been authorised before Parliamentary approval, as the three cannons cost £218,000 to purchase and would require a further £125,000 of work before being deemed suitable for service, as opposed to £870,000 for a single new machine.[43] But after a study of their safety and effectiveness, Home Secretary Theresa May said in Parliament in July 2015 that she had decided not to license them for use.[44] They were sold in November 2018 with the intention that they were to be broken up for spare parts.[45]
Thats not the same as saying you cant use them, that refers to the particular kit that Boris Johnson got and based on the above the Home Secretary therefore can nod through the use of water cannon so why not?. They can be put on a boat and sent over
In addition plastic bullets are available and all UK police forces train for use, I havent seen them deployed in England despite the widespread impression that this is all very serious disorder.
From reference [42] above:
Theresa May rejects use of water cannon in England and Wales
Home secretary says police ‘will never’ deploy military-style equipment on the streets after rejecting request for use of water cannon
Vikram Dodd Thu 23 Jul 2015 17.29 BST
The home secretary has signalled that she will never approve the use of water cannon on the streets of England and Wales, fearing it may damage police legitimacy and the principle of policing by consent. Explaining her rejection of an application for their use that was backed by the London mayor, Boris Johnson, Theresa May said police in the UK should never routinely carry guns or use military-style equipment.
Johnson had already bought three second-hand water cannon units from Germany, hoping that May would authorise their use. But it emerged last week that the units were riddled with faults, and May said on Thursday that she would not permit them to be used, even if the 67 faults were rectified.
During a speech in Brixton, south London, in which she promised to subject policing to a raft of further radical reform, May said: “Our police have never and will never routinely carry guns or hide behind military-style equipment.” On her veto of water cannon, she said: “I was also acutely conscious of the potential impact of water cannon on perceptions of police legitimacy and the very principle of policing by consent.”
Turning down the application earlier this month, May told MPs that her decision followed exhaustive medical and scientific tests which led her to conclude that the German cannon had the potential to cause serious injuries including spinal fractures, that there were doubts over their usefulness in fast-moving riots, and that they were likely to damage the British tradition of policing by consent.
Theresa May isnt the Home Secretary.
No, but she was when Boris tried to get barely functional ex-German water cannon onto the streets of London.
"One in three Brits support this week's anti-immigration protests"
"The broader peaceful protests have garnered the support of one in three (34 per cent) members of the public, but more than half (54 per cent) opposed. Reform UK voters backed the wider peaceful protests (81 per cent), but they are the only party to show any great deal of support for them. Fewer than one in five Labour and Lib Dem (18 to 19 per cent) voters supported the protests, while Conservatives were split on the matter (43 per support and 48 per cent oppose). The YouGov poll suggests sympathy for those taking part in the protests is broader. Six in ten Brits (58 per cent) said they had a fair amount of sympathy for those involved in the wider peaceful protests. This included majorities from all party voters."
Observation - Labour and LD voters appear to have very similar views, across the various questions. This is interesting.
Quiz - 62% of Britons would support bringing in the army to help tackle the 2024 riots Would you support or oppose using the army to help deal with the unrest in England? %
WHICH PARTY SUPPORTERS ARE MOST IN FAVOUR? (Strongly support/somewhat support, combined)......
It's the Lib Dems voters!
(In fairness, it's MoE stuff, and the support is characteristically equivocal, with 26% "strongly" and 42% "somewhat" supportive)
Perhaps what happened tonight in Belfast is a bit of a case study in how things get out of hand very quickly.
Video emerges of an immigrant man (origins unknown) attacking an elderly resident at what is reportedly a sheltered housing facility in the Shankill area of Belfast. For uninitiated the Shankill is the hub of loyalist terror groups. Same man reportedly decides to try to strike up conversations with local women whilst walking along said Shankill Road.
Fair to say there was no sign of any of the recent anti immigrant protests & trouble in this area.
Guess what happened once that video and story started to get around.
I think the first batch will be more likely to be locals and already 'known to the authorities' as they say. The out-of-towners will be less well known to the local plod and will also need some work with another police force to actually arrest, they will be more likely in the later batches.
For those equating the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America with Lutheran state churches in Scandinavia, note that ELCA is but one - albeit one of the largest - of a plethora of Lutheran denominations in USA:
Plethora of different Lutheran churches stems from variety of splits, schisms, mergers, etc. based on theological, national and other differences and differentiations.
In my humble (or otherwise) section of Seattle, there are plenty of Lutheran options, including two on my regular route to my morning coffee. One also nearby is the Finnish Lutheran Church.
Seattle has so many Lutheran congregations due to the prevalence of Norwegians, Swedes, Danes and Finns (in approximately that order) among first & second generation immigrants in late 19th and early 20th centuries. In addition to direct immigration, even more indirect from Minnesota and the Dakotas.
HOWEVER note that ethnic heritage of Tim Walz is primarily German, according to his wiki bio.
For those equating the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America with Lutheran state churches in Scandinavia, note that ELCA is but one - albeit one of the largest - of a plethora of Lutheran denominations in USA:
Plethora of different Lutheran churches stems from variety of splits, schisms, mergers, etc. based on theological, national and other differences and differentiations.
In my humble (or otherwise) section of Seattle, there are plenty of Lutheran options, including two on my regular route to my morning coffee. One also nearby is the Finnish Lutheran Church.
Seattle has so many Lutheran congregations due to the prevalence of Norwegians, Swedes, Danes and Finns (in approximately that order) among first & second generation immigrants in late 19th and early 20th centuries. In addition to direct immigration, even more indirect from Minnesota and the Dakotas.
HOWEVER note that ethnic heritage of Tim Walz is primarily German, according to his wiki bio.
Those, meaning me. 😊 I wasn't really conflating them, just starting a conversation on the subject.
Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.
I would have thought the deterrence value of accelerated prosecutions in the context of copycat disorder would be evident to most people. It would be nice if all cases could be dealt with this quickly, but the government has inherited a criminal justice system close to breaking point from the Conservatives and it will take time to turn it around.
Kamala Harris @KamalaHarris I am proud to announce that I've asked @Tim_Walz to be my running mate. As a governor, a coach, a teacher, and a veteran, he's delivered for working families like his. It's great to have him on the team. Now let’s get to work. Join us:
It's a pity that they feel the need to do it in such a schmaltzy way with a camera on each of them and then try to make it sound spontaneous. I know it's the American way but I'm sure we're hoping she'll be different
Though I am getting why Walz. Catch this great tiktok on his new hands free law.
He just exudes normality. Just the sort of bloke you want running stuff.
Don't underestimate the Ed Davey campaigning approach, it works. People want to like their leaders and Kamala and Tim just look so much more positive and fun to be with than the MAGA weirdos.
America might well escape the pit of doom that is Trump2.
For those equating the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America with Lutheran state churches in Scandinavia, note that ELCA is but one - albeit one of the largest - of a plethora of Lutheran denominations in USA:
Plethora of different Lutheran churches stems from variety of splits, schisms, mergers, etc. based on theological, national and other differences and differentiations.
In my humble (or otherwise) section of Seattle, there are plenty of Lutheran options, including two on my regular route to my morning coffee. One also nearby is the Finnish Lutheran Church.
Seattle has so many Lutheran congregations due to the prevalence of Norwegians, Swedes, Danes and Finns (in approximately that order) among first & second generation immigrants in late 19th and early 20th centuries. In addition to direct immigration, even more indirect from Minnesota and the Dakotas.
HOWEVER note that ethnic heritage of Tim Walz is primarily German, according to his wiki bio.
Those, meaning me. 😊 I wasn't really conflating them, just starting a conversation on the subject.
ELCA are an interesting denomination. They are relatively liberal / mainstream and in communion with ECUSA and Moravians amongst others.
They have a female Presiding Bishop, and they permit gay marriage according to the local congregational view.
They were very early onto the internet in the mid-1990s.
Walz has two great advantages as a politician: He is not a lawyer -- and he is a winning football coach. (Most Americans dislike lawyers -- and love winning coaches, especially football coaches.) "After returning, Walz took a job teaching and coaching in Alliance, Nebraska, where he met his wife, Gwen Whipple, a fellow teacher.[11] He and Gwen married in 1994, and moved two years later to Mankato in Minnesota, his wife's home state,[11] where he worked as a geography teacher and coach at Mankato West High School.[10] He coached the football team to its first state championship in 1999." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Walz
And, then there is this: "Walz was ranked the 7th-most bipartisan House member during the 114th Congress (and the most bipartisan member from Minnesota) in the Bipartisan Index created by The Lugar Center and the McCourt School of Public Policy, which ranks members of Congress by measuring how often their bills attract co-sponsors from the opposite party and how often they co-sponsor bills by members of the opposite party."
Good comment. Neither part of the "liberal elitist" tag is going to stick.
Early signs are that the Trump campaign is already flailing around, trying to find an effective attack.
I quite like the "first non-lawyer on a Democratic ticket since Jimmy Carter" line.
Average blood pressure in the posh bit of Sheffield increases a little.
It isn't a good idea for Dems to mention Jimmy Carter.
It’s almost universally agreed that he’s America’s best former President, doing much better work after he left office than he did in office. His reputation has definitely solid, even amongst Republicans -
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c72p27k3klyo
I wouldn't be suprised if in the end nothing happens. It's like the Barnett formula. People agree that it ought to be revisited but it will create winners and losers - the winners will take the win and the losers will complain a lot.
Hancock is evocative because there appears little logic to the idea that the makers of Gobekli Tepe developed such sophisticated knowledge in such a short period of benign climate, but there is no history worthy of the name in the many many millennia prior, in places with an equally benign climate.
Hubris will be the Dem's weakness.
Sure there are millions of people who are struggling but then there always has been and always will be and opportunities for most of them are better now than they were a decade ago.
And the proportion of those who are causing trouble is miniscule.
Nor is there any magic wand to lift all of those who are struggling out of their difficulties - some can be helped through more affordable housing or better training opportunities but for many, unfortunate though it is, their life trajectory was set decades ago.
For example there is no magic wand which is going to allow the London poor to get good housing or for a low skilled fifty year old to earn good pay.
Hopefully we get them back next time. Maybe 😈
And all of it without agriculture????
It’s completely confounding. No wonder it annoys archaeologists who tend to ignore it if they can as best they can. It simply doesn’t fit any accepted narrative of human development and it makes them all look like ignorant fools
That’s one reason they pick on Graham Hancock. Also he makes loads of money and they scramble for underpaid tenure
What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kambala, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tried to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE. He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!!
https://nitter.poast.org/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1820919085741334572#m
Though I'm not convinced it was Trump who wrote this - he spelled 'Stolen' correctly.
But they are the criminal extreme among a much larger number of the disaffected.
Either the occupier pays it or the bank they lend the mortgage pays it for that share. In the latter case they will of course whack it onto interest payments so we're back at the full tax on whoever has the economic ownership of the property. Anything else facilitates tax arbitrage through leverage.
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGevMBd47/
He just exudes normality. Just the sort of bloke you want running stuff.
Don't underestimate the Ed Davey campaigning approach, it works. People want to like their leaders and Kamala and Tim just look so much more positive and fun to be with than the MAGA weirdos.
America might well escape the pit of doom that is Trump2.
The tas Tepeler prove that there were advanced human civilisations much much older than we ever thought possible. The sumer-origin hypothesis is essentially overturned
It is therefore highly possible (if not probable?) that in the tens of thousands of years before now that advanced civilisations have risen and fallen. Leaving barely any trace because of enormous climate and planetary change
Remember the only reason we have the tas Tepeler is because
1. The inhabitants deliberately entombed their temple towns (we don’t know why) - thus protecting them
2. The climate suddenly became much drier and more arid (this may be one of the reasons the culture collapsed) which also preserved the stones
Without that they would be long gone and we’d never have found them
Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.
I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
There's a slightly disorienting outbreak of "thank/support the police" postings amongst the greens, from what I can see on twitter, at least.
Notably the police here appear to have no issue popping off the odd plastic bullet and are getting their water cannon that they lent out to their counterparts down in the Republic sent back up the road.
Which bears the question, what is wrong with the police over there? They have this kind of kit available.
A Pakistani man with ties to the Iranian government has been charged by the US Department of Justice for allegedly plotting to assassinate US government officials.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6233y4757zo
He literally wrote the manual on modern Republican propaganda.
He’s not a fan of Trump, but he is a long time propagandist.
Kamala 2.14-2.16
https://fairershare.org.uk/faq/
Court hearings begin wrt the Rotherham hotel attack.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c15gg123ydqo
But this is a betting site, and it's best to bet with your head, not with your heart. I still think Trump will do it in 2024, because the US economy is more dire than the headlines let on (and the headlines are pretty dire). Trump understands his audience, hence the no tax on tips policy. As I say, he's a Boris type character, a posho who working stiffs seem to love. I have bet accordingly.
Anyone else get Obama mannerism vibes ?
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1820936129173995950
David Herdson
@DavidHerdson
The racist right is trying to simultaneously:
1. Establish a narrative that the government has 'lost control';
2. Put themselves forward as the 'voice of real Britain';
3. Intimidate locations into withdrawing from asylum services;
4. Provoke a response from ethnic minorities.
They are being enabled by elements of social, published and broadcast media which are happy to push their line and spread their propaganda.
Regulators need to be much more proactive in enforcing existing rules. Police also need to be more proactive in enforcing the law and demonstrating that they are doing so.
Funnily enough, there probably is a psychoanalytic perspective where we can describe Trump as the Freduian Id for the American working classes. Certainly in 2016, he was a kind of conduit for their rage. Dunno if that will hold true in 2024. But I tend to view people voting for Trump as voting for a symbol rather than a person, or even a coherent ideology. He is their messenger, in a weird way that makes no sense to us on the other side of the pond.
In June 2014, London's Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime Stephen Greenhalgh authorised the Metropolitan Police to buy three second-hand Wasserwerfer 9000s from the German Federal Police. Mayor of London Boris Johnson said that the purchase had been authorised before Parliamentary approval, as the three cannons cost £218,000 to purchase and would require a further £125,000 of work before being deemed suitable for service, as opposed to £870,000 for a single new machine.[43] But after a study of their safety and effectiveness, Home Secretary Theresa May said in Parliament in July 2015 that she had decided not to license them for use.[44] They were sold in November 2018 with the intention that they were to be broken up for spare parts.[45]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_cannon#Riot_control
Trump 2.02
Harris 2.14
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927
Chinese state TV pulled the plug on a live broadcast at the weekend, as democratic Taiwan's badminton team beat China in the men's doubles to take Olympic gold in Paris.
https://x.com/WilliamYang120/status/1820716382805434618
In addition plastic bullets are available and all UK police forces train for use, I havent seen them deployed in England despite the widespread impression that this is all very serious disorder.
Theresa May rejects use of water cannon in England and Wales
Home secretary says police ‘will never’ deploy military-style equipment on the streets after rejecting request for use of water cannon
Vikram Dodd
Thu 23 Jul 2015 17.29 BST
The home secretary has signalled that she will never approve the use of water cannon on the streets of England and Wales, fearing it may damage police legitimacy and the principle of policing by consent. Explaining her rejection of an application for their use that was backed by the London mayor, Boris Johnson, Theresa May said police in the UK should never routinely carry guns or use military-style equipment.
Johnson had already bought three second-hand water cannon units from Germany, hoping that May would authorise their use. But it emerged last week that the units were riddled with faults, and May said on Thursday that she would not permit them to be used, even if the 67 faults were rectified.
During a speech in Brixton, south London, in which she promised to subject policing to a raft of further radical reform, May said: “Our police have never and will never routinely carry guns or hide behind military-style equipment.” On her veto of water cannon, she said: “I was also acutely conscious of the potential impact of water cannon on perceptions of police legitimacy and the very principle of policing by consent.”
Turning down the application earlier this month, May told MPs that her decision followed exhaustive medical and scientific tests which led her to conclude that the German cannon had the potential to cause serious injuries including spinal fractures, that there were doubts over their usefulness in fast-moving riots, and that they were likely to damage the British tradition of policing by consent.
There is risk in this market, this far out.
But yes, you're correct in your calculation, although you would need to deduct (and adjust, slightly) the stakes to calculate (equal) profit on either outcome.
2024 Trump is bitter and obsessed with himself.
He's a preening narcissist that doesn't give a damn about ordinary Joes and just wants to be great and screw anyone who says he's not the best President ever.
Since it is not, it is moot.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evangelical_Lutheran_Church_in_America
As I say it's a betting site, and we have a very Euro-centric view here. The idea of Trump winning (again) is weird to us. He's outside the overton window for what any of us, left or right, would vote for.
In America, where tribal identities are different, I think Trump's persona reflects a lot of those identities, and people are voting for 'their guy'.
Trying to apply British political wisdom to why Trump is so damn inexplicably popular misses the point - we don't get it, because we're not of the culture.
I think Trump will win, but even if he loses, he will lose by a narrow margin. Whereas if he was a UK politician he'd make Farage look popular.
US culture isn't ours, which is why, combined with the dire US economy under Biden, I'm still predicting a Trump win.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com
Analysis of court documents shows seven in 10 of those in court lived less than five miles from scenes of violent disorder
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/06/suspects-facing-riot-charges-are-mostly-locals/
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
I think it is more complicated than that e.g. there is a lot of young youths taking opportunity to have a ruck / steal stuff, who I don't think are there for much more than that. They are fairly easy to spot on their e-bikes in balaclavas. They didn't come on the train from half the country away.
"The broader peaceful protests have garnered the support of one in three (34 per cent) members of the public, but more than half (54 per cent) opposed. Reform UK voters backed the wider peaceful protests (81 per cent), but they are the only party to show any great deal of support for them.
Fewer than one in five Labour and Lib Dem (18 to 19 per cent) voters supported the protests, while Conservatives were split on the matter (43 per support and 48 per cent oppose). The YouGov poll suggests sympathy for those taking part in the protests is broader. Six in ten Brits (58 per cent) said they had a fair amount of sympathy for those involved in the wider peaceful protests. This included majorities from all party voters."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13715181/one-three-brits-protests-seven-percent-support-violent-riots.html
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50257-the-public-reaction-to-the-2024-riots
The polling is actually quite interesting.
1 observation & 1 quiz question.
Observation - Labour and LD voters appear to have very similar views, across the various questions. This is interesting.
Quiz - 62% of Britons would support bringing in the army to help tackle the 2024 riots
Would you support or oppose using the army to help deal with the unrest in England? %
WHICH PARTY SUPPORTERS ARE MOST IN FAVOUR? (Strongly support/somewhat support, combined)......
It's the Lib Dems voters!
(In fairness, it's MoE stuff, and the support is characteristically equivocal, with 26% "strongly" and 42% "somewhat" supportive)
Video emerges of an immigrant man (origins unknown) attacking an elderly resident at what is reportedly a sheltered housing facility in the Shankill area of Belfast. For uninitiated the Shankill is the hub of loyalist terror groups. Same man reportedly decides to try to strike up conversations with local women whilst walking along said Shankill Road.
Fair to say there was no sign of any of the recent anti immigrant protests & trouble in this area.
Guess what happened once that video and story started to get around.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Lutheran_denominations_in_North_America
Plethora of different Lutheran churches stems from variety of splits, schisms, mergers, etc. based on theological, national and other differences and differentiations.
In my humble (or otherwise) section of Seattle, there are plenty of Lutheran options, including two on my regular route to my morning coffee. One also nearby is the Finnish Lutheran Church.
Seattle has so many Lutheran congregations due to the prevalence of Norwegians, Swedes, Danes and Finns (in approximately that order) among first & second generation immigrants in late 19th and early 20th centuries. In addition to direct immigration, even more indirect from Minnesota and the Dakotas.
HOWEVER note that ethnic heritage of Tim Walz is primarily German, according to his wiki bio.
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819
Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.
They have a female Presiding Bishop, and they permit gay marriage according to the local congregational view.
They were very early onto the internet in the mid-1990s.
Kamala 2.12