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Should we start describing Kamala as the favourite for the White House Race? – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good grief, BBC. Can you not interview any Americans on the US election who aren’t Republicans ?
    WTF is Frank fucking Lunz - long time GOP propagandist - the go to guy on analysing Harris’s VP pick ? And presented as some sort of objective commentator.

    They were all Democrats on Newsnight and BBC1, even Luntz said Harris was favourite in his view. Not a single Republican on there!
    Posters on here post now and again that Lunz is a GOP propagandist.

    I just don't see that.

    Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant and pollster,[1][2] best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz

    I’m hoping you’re being sarcastic.
    He is generally objective and also close to David Cameron, hardly MAGA
    His Newsnight focus group made Cameron leader.
    Luntz was at Oxford around the same time as Boris & Cameron. It is possible he knew them, and likely he knew of them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    I would have thought the deterrence value of accelerated prosecutions in the context of copycat disorder would be evident to most people. It would be nice if all cases could be dealt with this quickly, but the government has inherited a criminal justice system close to breaking point from the Conservatives and it will take time to turn it around.
    This is key. Speed matters; length of sentence is more or less immaterial.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump is now less than a 50% chance to win the election according to Betfair Exchange punters.

    Trump 2.02
    Harris 2.14

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927

    Hold on...isn't that an arb? You put 100 on Trump and 100 on Harris, and depending on who wins you get 202 or 214 back.
    If I was a millionaire I'd be putting large sums on both candidates in order to make a healthy profit.
    What if Trump's next assassin is successful?
    That is why there is a small premium on named candidates versus their parties.

    Trump 1.99 vs Kamala 2.12
    Republican 1.95 vs Democrat 2.06
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134

    Andy_JS said:
    Trump 1.99
    Kamala 2.12
    Trump was up to 2.02 slightly earlier today, although after that post you've quoted.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Musky Baby seems to think that suing your potential customers into becoming customers is a good idea...

    "Elon Musk's X/Twitter is suing a group of major companies, alleging that they unlawfully conspired to boycott the site.

    It accuses the food giants Unilever and Mars, private healthcare company CVS Health, and renewable energy firm Orsted - along with a trade association called the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA) - of depriving it of "billions of dollars" in advertising revenue."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Kamala Harris is shortening on Betfair. Now into 2.18. Trump 1.94 favourite.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927

    Trump is value here. I'd vote for Kamala over the orange one, but I'm aware the market is wish-casting.

    I think what it will come down to is the economy. Most Americans have become poorer as a result of the madcap inflation of the last few years. And Trump is really sensitive to those working class stiffs who are worse off, hence his no tax on tips policy.

    Irrespective of one's ideology, parties in power during massive economic downturns, such as we've seen in every western nation post Covid and Ukraine, don't tend to do well.

    Dispassionately, my money remains on Trump. As it would almost any other candidate not in government for the last four years.
    I see it the other way. I actually think the market is being too cautious here. The trend and direction of travel has all been in Harris’ favour. What’s more, the Harris “bounce” looks to be sustaining itself right now. And it has longer to run. She’ll get decent coverage from the Walz pick (generally seems to have gone down well - these things can unravel but it seems OK so far), then she’s got the convention.

    I think it’s entirely possible she’s polling 3-5 points ahead by the end of August. Not an insurmountable lead for Trump to overcome by any means, but he hasn’t reacted well to the shift in the race, and he needs to get his act together.
    I think that's fair, if Harris can present herself as the change candidate. Or even as the 'yes it hurt, yes it worked' candidate.

    What's unusual about this election is it's against someone who has already held the office for four years, so has a track record we can judge him against.
    Or she can present herself a Walz as the actually sane candidates.
    The semiotics of American elections are fascinating, I've repeatedly stated my view that without Tony Soprano on TV, there would be no President Trump in the White House. It is all theatre. Or theater, in the states.

    Trump might look bonkers to you and me, but the thing I got when I was working in America in 2016 was just how attuned he was to the 'working class joe' out there, and how everything he said hit all the right notes with that kind of voter. He wasn't one of them, but they felt he was standing up for him. He was a Boris type politician, a posho who somehow tickled the tummies of those other politicians couldn't reach. In a way that looks totally alien to us as brits.

    I don't work in the states any more, so I'm much further removed this time around. But I'm also aware of putting a UK spin on how we would vote based on our culture, vs how the US votes.
    2016 Trump was able to spin himself as caring for the ordinary Joe Sixpack.

    2024 Trump is bitter and obsessed with himself.

    He's a preening narcissist that doesn't give a damn about ordinary Joes and just wants to be great and screw anyone who says he's not the best President ever.
    Making the ordinary Joe believe that - in 90 days - is the challenge of the Harris/Walz ticket.

    Walz is probably Harris's best shot at making that case. He doesn't have to persuade them to vote for Harris; just not to vote for Convict Trump.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    "Mass imprisonment of rioters will ‘destabilise’ England’s jail system, warns prison governors’ group
    Surge of inmates similar to 2011 risks destabilising prison system, says PGA official"

    https://www.ft.com/content/3ad42541-d3d4-4460-a337-1f361af3b53e
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited August 7
    Mark Butcher - It’s just horrendous news and I just hope that he’s in a better place now, that’s all.

    “It’s very distressing, principally for his family,” Atherton said.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/08/06/mark-butcher-graham-thorpe-michael-atherton-cork-tribute/

    Maybe I reading too much into that comment, but that doesn't make it sound like he died of something like cancer. It rather sounds like he killed himself.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Mark Butcher - It’s just horrendous news and I just hope that he’s in a better place now, that’s all.

    “It’s very distressing, principally for his family,” Atherton said.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/08/06/mark-butcher-graham-thorpe-michael-atherton-cork-tribute/

    Maybe I reading too much into that comment, but that doesn't make it sound like he died of something like cancer. It rather sounds like he killed himself.

    He had been ill for a while.He turned down the Afghanistan coaching job due to illness in 2022.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited August 7
    Taz said:

    Mark Butcher - It’s just horrendous news and I just hope that he’s in a better place now, that’s all.

    “It’s very distressing, principally for his family,” Atherton said.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/08/06/mark-butcher-graham-thorpe-michael-atherton-cork-tribute/

    Maybe I reading too much into that comment, but that doesn't make it sound like he died of something like cancer. It rather sounds like he killed himself.

    He had been ill for a while.He turned down the Afghanistan coaching job due to illness in 2022.
    That's what I mean. 2 years ago it was reported he was ill and undergoing treatment, after which nothing more reported. These comments don't sound like the death of somebody who has been for instance battling cancer for 2 years, it sounds more of one of shock. It is has been well reported that at times during his life he struggled mentally.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    edited August 7

    Mark Butcher - It’s just horrendous news and I just hope that he’s in a better place now, that’s all.

    “It’s very distressing, principally for his family,” Atherton said.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/08/06/mark-butcher-graham-thorpe-michael-atherton-cork-tribute/

    Maybe I reading too much into that comment, but that doesn't make it sound like he died of something like cancer. It rather sounds like he killed himself.

    On the other hand he's had the illness for a couple of years. Very sad.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited August 7
    Andy_JS said:

    Mark Butcher - It’s just horrendous news and I just hope that he’s in a better place now, that’s all.

    “It’s very distressing, principally for his family,” Atherton said.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/08/06/mark-butcher-graham-thorpe-michael-atherton-cork-tribute/

    Maybe I reading too much into that comment, but that doesn't make it sound like he died of something like cancer. It rather sounds like he killed himself.

    On the other hand he's had the illness for a couple of years. Very sad.
    But the comments are one of shock, as if it was unexpected and distressing for the family. If you have some serious illness for 2 years, normally the comments are along the lines of battled bravely, but unfortunately couldn't overcome it, died surrounded by their family, thoughts go out to the wife / kids. And there is no word of whatever the illness was etc.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Eabhal said:

    Walz is box office. Making sofa jokes about Vance.

    I wondered about the couch thing getting a bit tired, but this is a fair point.

    GOP lies: Dems tried to kill Trump, crashed the economy, abort live babies, and are pedophiles.

    Dem lies: JD Vance may have fucked a couch.

    … and y’all WONDER why we’re have fun with the couch nonsense?

    https://x.com/ElieNYC/status/1820973662859882608

    An obviously ridiculous lie, which mocks your opponents who are notorious liars, is fairly appropriate.


  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo

    I wonder if the directors of the Post Office will face the same ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    edited August 7

    Andy_JS said:

    Mark Butcher - It’s just horrendous news and I just hope that he’s in a better place now, that’s all.

    “It’s very distressing, principally for his family,” Atherton said.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/08/06/mark-butcher-graham-thorpe-michael-atherton-cork-tribute/

    Maybe I reading too much into that comment, but that doesn't make it sound like he died of something like cancer. It rather sounds like he killed himself.

    On the other hand he's had the illness for a couple of years. Very sad.
    But the comments are one of shock, as if it was unexpected and distressing for the family. If you have some serious illness for 2 years, normally the comments are along the lines of battled bravely, but unfortunately couldn't overcome it, died surrounded by their family, thoughts go out to the wife / kids. And there is no word of whatever the illness was etc.
    A dear friend of mine had been ill with cancer for a couple of years, and had battled it bravely. The last time I saw him, he was much better, and was off for a holiday at a miner's convalescence home.

    He suddenly became very ill whilst at the home, and died in an ambulance on the way to hospital. It was a deep shock, as we thought he was getting much better; besides, he was an indestructible sort of chap. He was only in his early forties.

    Edit: I don't think it was the cancer that killed him, but his body just gave up on him.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,981
    Did anyone else have Tim Walz on their bingo card?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    edited August 7
    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !

    Still it’s refreshing to see the Police are now taking an interest in aggressive shoplifting and I presume they will not be looking at shoplifting where the value is less than £200 unlike before the riots.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    edited August 7

    Andy_JS said:

    Mark Butcher - It’s just horrendous news and I just hope that he’s in a better place now, that’s all.

    “It’s very distressing, principally for his family,” Atherton said.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/08/06/mark-butcher-graham-thorpe-michael-atherton-cork-tribute/

    Maybe I reading too much into that comment, but that doesn't make it sound like he died of something like cancer. It rather sounds like he killed himself.

    On the other hand he's had the illness for a couple of years. Very sad.
    But the comments are one of shock, as if it was unexpected and distressing for the family. If you have some serious illness for 2 years, normally the comments are along the lines of battled bravely, but unfortunately couldn't overcome it, died surrounded by their family, thoughts go out to the wife / kids. And there is no word of whatever the illness was etc.
    A dear friend of mine had been ill with cancer for a couple of years, and had battled it bravely. The last time I saw him, he was much better, and was off for a holiday at a miner's convalescence home.

    He suddenly became very ill whilst at the home, and died in an ambulance on the way to hospital. It was a deep shock, as we thought he was getting much better; besides, he was an indestructible sort of chap. He was only in his early forties.

    Edit: I don't think it was the cancer that killed him, but his body just gave up on him.
    Same happened my sister. She fought an aggressive cancer for 4 years, but her body gave up when she was on an operating table, She was 36.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
    Maybe/Maybe not but it is certainly gaining some traction.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
    Maybe/Maybe not but it is certainly gaining some traction.
    Is it?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo

    I wonder if the directors of the Post Office will face the same ?
    No; but that's a very different sort of case. These appear fairly uncomplex, open-and-shut cases. The PO cases would be much more complex.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
    Maybe/Maybe not but it is certainly gaining some traction.
    To quote the old saying

    Never wrestle with a pig. You just get dirty and the pig enjoys it.

    Starmer's spin doctors are ignoring the basics, especially when the pig is ultra rich and has his own social media platform
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo

    I wonder if the directors of the Post Office will face the same ?
    No; but that's a very different sort of case. These appear fairly uncomplex, open-and-shut cases. The PO cases would be much more complex.
    In my view it will be the usual exercise in kicking the problem in to the long grass. Lawyers get rich and justice isnt done.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo

    I wonder if the directors of the Post Office will face the same ?
    No; but that's a very different sort of case. These appear fairly uncomplex, open-and-shut cases. The PO cases would be much more complex.
    In my view it will be the usual exercise in kicking the problem in to the long grass. Lawyers get rich and justice isnt done.
    Perhaps; not wanting to tackle complex things - especially where they might fail - is a trait that afflicts most people.

    In the case of these riots, most of the cases are probably quite simple. Were you the person who set fire to this wheelie bin and sent it into police lines? Are you the lady taking those stolen crocs out of this shop? Are you the person who wrote this comment online? In many cases the crime will be fairly clear - sometimes because the fuckwits videod themselves doing the crime - and it will be a case of ensuring they have the right person. And as they took part during a riot, AIUI the penalties can be more severe.

    (I am obviously not a lawyer, and the above may have lawyers snorting their morning coffee onto their keyboards.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    'Two Tier Keir' is a devastating nickname. It's catchy, quite clever, and like all damaging nicknames, contains an element of truth. It is going to dog SKS in every hypocritical decision that he makes and special interest group that he favours for the remainder of his (hopefully brief) spell in Government.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
    Maybe/Maybe not but it is certainly gaining some traction.
    To quote the old saying

    Never wrestle with a pig. You just get dirty and the pig enjoys it.

    Starmer's spin doctors are ignoring the basics, especially when the pig is ultra rich and has his own social media platform
    Most people with eyes and a brain can see the damage that is being done by social media posts. We all need social media, and we need it to not be a cesspit. That means regulation both by governments and by the platforms.

    I don't have a problem with Musk championing free speech. An important principle. But it needs to be tempered with obeying national laws - I can't post online hate and please free speech, and the 1st also doesn't ptotect you in the US.

    He huffs and he puffs about regulation. But also quietly gets on with obeying them where imposed - TwiX is a business and he needs it to be viable. So face him down. TwiX, Telegram, Facebook - all of them. Shape up or it will get very expensive.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    edited August 7

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
    Maybe/Maybe not but it is certainly gaining some traction.
    To quote the old saying

    Never wrestle with a pig. You just get dirty and the pig enjoys it.

    Starmer's spin doctors are ignoring the basics, especially when the pig is ultra rich and has his own social media platform
    Most people with eyes and a brain can see the damage that is being done by social media posts. We all need social media, and we need it to not be a cesspit. That means regulation both by governments and by the platforms.

    I don't have a problem with Musk championing free speech. An important principle. But it needs to be tempered with obeying national laws - I can't post online hate and please free speech, and the 1st also doesn't ptotect you in the US.

    He huffs and he puffs about regulation. But also quietly gets on with obeying them where imposed - TwiX is a business and he needs it to be viable. So face him down. TwiX, Telegram, Facebook - all of them. Shape up or it will get very expensive.
    Indeed. Musk’s rhetoric is just rhetoric. Since he took over, Twitter has been complying with a much higher rate of government and court requests to remove content: https://www.forbes.com/sites/katherinehamilton/2023/04/27/twitter-has-complied-with-almost-every-government-request-for-censorship-since-musk-took-over-report-finds/
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
    Maybe/Maybe not but it is certainly gaining some traction.
    To quote the old saying

    Never wrestle with a pig. You just get dirty and the pig enjoys it.

    Starmer's spin doctors are ignoring the basics, especially when the pig is ultra rich and has his own social media platform
    Most people with eyes and a brain can see the damage that is being done by social media posts. We all need social media, and we need it to not be a cesspit. That means regulation both by governments and by the platforms.

    I don't have a problem with Musk championing free speech. An important principle. But it needs to be tempered with obeying national laws - I can't post online hate and please free speech, and the 1st also doesn't ptotect you in the US.

    He huffs and he puffs about regulation. But also quietly gets on with obeying them where imposed - TwiX is a business and he needs it to be viable. So face him down. TwiX, Telegram, Facebook - all of them. Shape up or it will get very expensive.
    Well I hear what you say, but the basic problem is the internet is global. You can legislate until youre blue in the face but if the poster is in the US what are you going to do ? Are you going to ban Trumps platform just cos you dont like him ?

    The focus on reporting is just a red herring, you have to look at whats driving the rage and see what can be done about it.



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
    Maybe/Maybe not but it is certainly gaining some traction.
    To quote the old saying

    Never wrestle with a pig. You just get dirty and the pig enjoys it.

    Starmer's spin doctors are ignoring the basics, especially when the pig is ultra rich and has his own social media platform
    Most people with eyes and a brain can see the damage that is being done by social media posts. We all need social media, and we need it to not be a cesspit. That means regulation both by governments and by the platforms.

    I don't have a problem with Musk championing free speech. An important principle. But it needs to be tempered with obeying national laws - I can't post online hate and please free speech, and the 1st also doesn't ptotect you in the US.

    He huffs and he puffs about regulation. But also quietly gets on with obeying them where imposed - TwiX is a business and he needs it to be viable. So face him down. TwiX, Telegram, Facebook - all of them. Shape up or it will get very expensive.
    "I don't have a problem with Musk championing free speech"

    TBH, I don't think he does. He likes *his* free speech, and the voice of those who pretty much agree with him (and the legions of sycophants who support him). He is much less keen on the 'free speech' of those who oppose him.

    I do think he reads the fawning comments that agree with every post he makes, however outrageous, and this encourages him to become more extreme. It'd be funny if many of those voices were just bots...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599

    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo

    I wonder if the directors of the Post Office will face the same ?
    No; but that's a very different sort of case. These appear fairly uncomplex, open-and-shut cases. The PO cases would be much more complex.
    In my view it will be the usual exercise in kicking the problem in to the long grass. Lawyers get rich and justice isnt done.
    Perhaps; not wanting to tackle complex things - especially where they might fail - is a trait that afflicts most people.

    In the case of these riots, most of the cases are probably quite simple. Were you the person who set fire to this wheelie bin and sent it into police lines? Are you the lady taking those stolen crocs out of this shop? Are you the person who wrote this comment online? In many cases the crime will be fairly clear - sometimes because the fuckwits videod themselves doing the crime - and it will be a case of ensuring they have the right person. And as they took part during a riot, AIUI the penalties can be more severe.

    (I am obviously not a lawyer, and the above may have lawyers snorting their morning coffee onto their keyboards.)
    With joint enterprise surely you dont actually need to be the person setting fire to it.....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo

    I wonder if the directors of the Post Office will face the same ?
    No; but that's a very different sort of case. These appear fairly uncomplex, open-and-shut cases. The PO cases would be much more complex.
    In my view it will be the usual exercise in kicking the problem in to the long grass. Lawyers get rich and justice isnt done.
    Perhaps; not wanting to tackle complex things - especially where they might fail - is a trait that afflicts most people.

    In the case of these riots, most of the cases are probably quite simple. Were you the person who set fire to this wheelie bin and sent it into police lines? Are you the lady taking those stolen crocs out of this shop? Are you the person who wrote this comment online? In many cases the crime will be fairly clear - sometimes because the fuckwits videod themselves doing the crime - and it will be a case of ensuring they have the right person. And as they took part during a riot, AIUI the penalties can be more severe.

    (I am obviously not a lawyer, and the above may have lawyers snorting their morning coffee onto their keyboards.)
    well all of that yes, but then why are the polcce not tracking down thugs who steam raid shops and empty the shelves ? Or why have they let JSO grind London a halt and wait for a year to do anything much about it ? And lets be clear that all happened under a Conservative government. It's the erratic application of the law which annoys those who respect it and the police and politicians have only themselves to blame.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited August 7
    For all the virtue signalling the entertainment industry loves to do, they seem to be full of the scummiest people.

    'He screamed in my face' - junior crew on Strictly speak out
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxr2z4g7pz4o
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062

    For those equating the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America with Lutheran state churches in Scandinavia, note that ELCA is but one - albeit one of the largest - of a plethora of Lutheran denominations in USA:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Lutheran_denominations_in_North_America

    Plethora of different Lutheran churches stems from variety of splits, schisms, mergers, etc. based on theological, national and other differences and differentiations.

    In my humble (or otherwise) section of Seattle, there are plenty of Lutheran options, including two on my regular route to my morning coffee. One also nearby is the Finnish Lutheran Church.

    Seattle has so many Lutheran congregations due to the prevalence of Norwegians, Swedes, Danes and Finns (in approximately that order) among first & second generation immigrants in late 19th and early 20th centuries. In addition to direct immigration, even more indirect from Minnesota and the Dakotas.

    HOWEVER note that ethnic heritage of Tim Walz is primarily German, according to his wiki bio.

    A large number of Protestant Germans are indeed Lutheran. In fact in Europe, the Lutheran churches are, under the Porvoo declaration actually in full communion with the Anglican/Episcopalian churches too. It's an open and very humane version of Christianity. The ritual, quite often influenced by Bach, is sonorous and beautiful too.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    I think Starmer has always been clear that he inherited a badly neglected criminal justice system that needs investment to catch up its backlog of cases.

    It becomes very hard to have a fair trial after years of delay, and we lose the benefits of swift sentences on copycat offenders.

    The Tories left every public service from jails to police, from universities to the Royal Navy in a very poor state.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited August 7

    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo

    I wonder if the directors of the Post Office will face the same ?
    Have the two lads from Manchester airport tear up being charged with anything yet?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo

    I wonder if the directors of the Post Office will face the same ?
    No; but that's a very different sort of case. These appear fairly uncomplex, open-and-shut cases. The PO cases would be much more complex.
    In my view it will be the usual exercise in kicking the problem in to the long grass. Lawyers get rich and justice isnt done.
    Perhaps; not wanting to tackle complex things - especially where they might fail - is a trait that afflicts most people.

    In the case of these riots, most of the cases are probably quite simple. Were you the person who set fire to this wheelie bin and sent it into police lines? Are you the lady taking those stolen crocs out of this shop? Are you the person who wrote this comment online? In many cases the crime will be fairly clear - sometimes because the fuckwits videod themselves doing the crime - and it will be a case of ensuring they have the right person. And as they took part during a riot, AIUI the penalties can be more severe.

    (I am obviously not a lawyer, and the above may have lawyers snorting their morning coffee onto their keyboards.)
    well all of that yes, but then why are the polcce not tracking down thugs who steam raid shops and empty the shelves ? Or why have they let JSO grind London a halt and wait for a year to do anything much about it ? And lets be clear that all happened under a Conservative government. It's the erratic application of the law which annoys those who respect it and the police and politicians have only themselves to blame.
    JSO: IMV because they were reasonably cleverish, and tried to stay more-or-less on the side of the line that would not break the law, or be such a small punishment that it would not involve custodial time. That is a fine line to walk, and some of them crossed the line too often.

    The context of the riots also helps in these cases; AIUI (from watching YouTube lawyers...) the law treats criminal acts performed during a riot much more harshly; it is seen as a very aggravating factor.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited August 7

    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo

    I wonder if the directors of the Post Office will face the same ?
    No; but that's a very different sort of case. These appear fairly uncomplex, open-and-shut cases. The PO cases would be much more complex.
    In my view it will be the usual exercise in kicking the problem in to the long grass. Lawyers get rich and justice isnt done.
    Perhaps; not wanting to tackle complex things - especially where they might fail - is a trait that afflicts most people.

    In the case of these riots, most of the cases are probably quite simple. Were you the person who set fire to this wheelie bin and sent it into police lines? Are you the lady taking those stolen crocs out of this shop? Are you the person who wrote this comment online? In many cases the crime will be fairly clear - sometimes because the fuckwits videod themselves doing the crime - and it will be a case of ensuring they have the right person. And as they took part during a riot, AIUI the penalties can be more severe.

    (I am obviously not a lawyer, and the above may have lawyers snorting their morning coffee onto their keyboards.)
    well all of that yes, but then why are the polcce not tracking down thugs who steam raid shops and empty the shelves ? Or why have they let JSO grind London a halt and wait for a year to do anything much about it ? And lets be clear that all happened under a Conservative government. It's the erratic application of the law which annoys those who respect it and the police and politicians have only themselves to blame.
    JSO: IMV because they were reasonably cleverish, and tried to stay more-or-less on the side of the line that would not break the law, or be such a small punishment that it would not involve custodial time. That is a fine line to walk, and some of them crossed the line too often.

    The context of the riots also helps in these cases; AIUI (from watching YouTube lawyers...) the law treats criminal acts performed during a riot much more harshly; it is seen as a very aggravating factor.
    JSO are extremely well backed and adviced e.g. the slow walk in the road was a loophole in which it wasn't illegal, it was only advised in the highway code that you did your best not to do so. Same as being dickheads at sporting events, the most you will likely get done with is trespass and the venue will just ban you.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Cicero said:

    For those equating the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America with Lutheran state churches in Scandinavia, note that ELCA is but one - albeit one of the largest - of a plethora of Lutheran denominations in USA:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Lutheran_denominations_in_North_America

    Plethora of different Lutheran churches stems from variety of splits, schisms, mergers, etc. based on theological, national and other differences and differentiations.

    In my humble (or otherwise) section of Seattle, there are plenty of Lutheran options, including two on my regular route to my morning coffee. One also nearby is the Finnish Lutheran Church.

    Seattle has so many Lutheran congregations due to the prevalence of Norwegians, Swedes, Danes and Finns (in approximately that order) among first & second generation immigrants in late 19th and early 20th centuries. In addition to direct immigration, even more indirect from Minnesota and the Dakotas.

    HOWEVER note that ethnic heritage of Tim Walz is primarily German, according to his wiki bio.

    A large number of Protestant Germans are indeed Lutheran. In fact in Europe, the Lutheran churches are, under the Porvoo declaration actually in full communion with the Anglican/Episcopalian churches too. It's an open and very humane version of Christianity. The ritual, quite often influenced by Bach, is sonorous and beautiful too.
    My brother's brother in law is an Evangelican Lutheran Pastor in Schwelsig Holstein, and so far as I can see theologically and structurally it is very similar to the Anglican/Episcopelian Church. Indeed I did a Bible reading in a family service there once.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Starmer says rioters can expect rapid sentencing
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kjdjylnqyo

    I wonder if the directors of the Post Office will face the same ?
    Have the two lads from Manchester airport tear up being charged with anything yet?
    Their lawyer was having a go at the police yesterday. I am not a fan of him...
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,797
    IMHO Walz will be a tremendous pick as candidate veep

    Literally the entire Democratic Party is behind him. Strong endorsements from HRC, the Obamas, Biden, the Squad, the other VP candidates….

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/6/2261121/-No-disarray-here-Democrats-unite-in-support-of-Harris-Walz-ticket?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web

    And America loves a coach…

    Stick a fork in Trump. He’s peaked.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited August 7
    JSO twats did fall foul recently. The throwing shit at paintings, their defence was they knew the priceless painting was protected so no damage was inflicted by their actions. However, they didn't realise the frame was extremely valuable and they have caused significant damage to it, so they are in the doo doo.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344

    For all the virtue signalling the entertainment industry loves to do, they seem to be full of the scummiest people.

    'He screamed in my face' - junior crew on Strictly speak out
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxr2z4g7pz4o

    We had Flavia Cacace round recently (she and Jimi have a smallholding very near to us). She didn't really want to get into the Strictly controversy, but she did say she felt very grateful that various celebs had taken time to write to her to say this didn't in any way reflect their experience they had on the show with her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344

    IMHO Walz will be a tremendous pick as candidate veep

    Literally the entire Democratic Party is behind him. Strong endorsements from HRC, the Obamas, Biden, the Squad, the other VP candidates….

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/6/2261121/-No-disarray-here-Democrats-unite-in-support-of-Harris-Walz-ticket?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web

    And America loves a coach…

    Stick a fork in Trump. He’s peaked.

    Walz was quite superb on his first public meeting with Harris. The genial assassin.

    Independents are going to love him.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    For those equating the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America with Lutheran state churches in Scandinavia, note that ELCA is but one - albeit one of the largest - of a plethora of Lutheran denominations in USA:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Lutheran_denominations_in_North_America

    Plethora of different Lutheran churches stems from variety of splits, schisms, mergers, etc. based on theological, national and other differences and differentiations.

    In my humble (or otherwise) section of Seattle, there are plenty of Lutheran options, including two on my regular route to my morning coffee. One also nearby is the Finnish Lutheran Church.

    Seattle has so many Lutheran congregations due to the prevalence of Norwegians, Swedes, Danes and Finns (in approximately that order) among first & second generation immigrants in late 19th and early 20th centuries. In addition to direct immigration, even more indirect from Minnesota and the Dakotas.

    HOWEVER note that ethnic heritage of Tim Walz is primarily German, according to his wiki bio.

    A large number of Protestant Germans are indeed Lutheran. In fact in Europe, the Lutheran churches are, under the Porvoo declaration actually in full communion with the Anglican/Episcopalian churches too. It's an open and very humane version of Christianity. The ritual, quite often influenced by Bach, is sonorous and beautiful too.
    My brother's brother in law is an Evangelican Lutheran Pastor in Schwelsig Holstein, and so far as I can see theologically and structurally it is very similar to the Anglican/Episcopelian Church. Indeed I did a Bible reading in a family service there once.
    Which parish ? Im sat in Hamburg and could do with some divine assistance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
    Maybe/Maybe not but it is certainly gaining some traction.
    To quote the old saying

    Never wrestle with a pig. You just get dirty and the pig enjoys it.

    Starmer's spin doctors are ignoring the basics, especially when the pig is ultra rich and has his own social media platform
    There's nothing they can do about 'Two Tier' - that's legitimate, even if dishonest political speech.
    But in his amplification of those like Tommy Robinson, he risks straying into illegality. At that point, there are, potentially, real legal remedies available.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    Andy_JS said:

    MattW said:

    Apologies if already posted.

    Court hearings begin wrt the Rotherham hotel attack.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c15gg123ydqo

    A lot faster than prosecutions for those involved in the Rotherham grooming gangs.
    Morning all.

    But the 2011 minorities riots prosecutions were also a lot faster than the Riotherhsn ones, too. The difference is not race but the need to restore order after riots. Some of this stuff really needs to be scrutinised more carefully.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297

    NEW THREAD

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    FF43 said:

    .

    'Two Tier Keir' is a devastating nickname. It's catchy, quite clever, and like all damaging nicknames, contains an element of truth. It is going to dog SKS in every hypocritical decision that he makes and special interest group that he favours for the remainder of his (hopefully brief) spell in Government.

    "Two Tier Keir" seems clever and to have an element of truth to those that support the riots to some extent and also think Keir Starmer responsible for them, which is about 30% of the population, including most Reform supporters and half of Tories.

    This is way too many people but even so the bulk of the population who want nothing to with any of it aren't going to go "what about?" They just want the perpetrators punished.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50257-the-public-reaction-to-the-2024-riots
    It has nothing to do with 'supporting the riots' - most people (quite rightly) want to see disorder and crime punished harshly whichever community it emanates from. Hence why the two tier nickname is damaging.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
    Maybe/Maybe not but it is certainly gaining some traction.
    Is it?
    Yes, it seems to be. You're not the target audience.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer warns rioters will be sentenced 'within a week'"

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-riots-latest-far-right-southport-live-13186819

    Nothing wrong with this in itself, but many people will contrast it with how long it takes, or has taken, for justice to be served in other cases.

    Two tier Kier !
    As attacks goes, that's a really poor line.
    Maybe/Maybe not but it is certainly gaining some traction.
    Is it?
    Yes, it seems to be. You're not the target audience.
    Perhaps. Or perhaps you're too ingrained in the target audience?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    For those equating the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America with Lutheran state churches in Scandinavia, note that ELCA is but one - albeit one of the largest - of a plethora of Lutheran denominations in USA:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Lutheran_denominations_in_North_America

    Plethora of different Lutheran churches stems from variety of splits, schisms, mergers, etc. based on theological, national and other differences and differentiations.

    In my humble (or otherwise) section of Seattle, there are plenty of Lutheran options, including two on my regular route to my morning coffee. One also nearby is the Finnish Lutheran Church.

    Seattle has so many Lutheran congregations due to the prevalence of Norwegians, Swedes, Danes and Finns (in approximately that order) among first & second generation immigrants in late 19th and early 20th centuries. In addition to direct immigration, even more indirect from Minnesota and the Dakotas.

    HOWEVER note that ethnic heritage of Tim Walz is primarily German, according to his wiki bio.

    A large number of Protestant Germans are indeed Lutheran. In fact in Europe, the Lutheran churches are, under the Porvoo declaration actually in full communion with the Anglican/Episcopalian churches too. It's an open and very humane version of Christianity. The ritual, quite often influenced by Bach, is sonorous and beautiful too.
    My brother's brother in law is an Evangelican Lutheran Pastor in Schwelsig Holstein, and so far as I can see theologically and structurally it is very similar to the Anglican/Episcopelian Church. Indeed I did a Bible reading in a family service there once.
    Which parish ? Im sat in Hamburg and could do with some divine assistance.
    Eckenforde. So about 90 minutes drive.

    I do love Hamburg, it's a beautiful city. I remember lots of red squirrels in the botanic gardens there, if you need a spiritual lift.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    Andy_JS said:

    Mark Butcher - It’s just horrendous news and I just hope that he’s in a better place now, that’s all.

    “It’s very distressing, principally for his family,” Atherton said.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/08/06/mark-butcher-graham-thorpe-michael-atherton-cork-tribute/

    Maybe I reading too much into that comment, but that doesn't make it sound like he died of something like cancer. It rather sounds like he killed himself.

    On the other hand he's had the illness for a couple of years. Very sad.
    But the comments are one of shock, as if it was unexpected and distressing for the family. If you have some serious illness for 2 years, normally the comments are along the lines of battled bravely, but unfortunately couldn't overcome it, died surrounded by their family, thoughts go out to the wife / kids. And there is no word of whatever the illness was etc.
    A dear friend of mine had been ill with cancer for a couple of years, and had battled it bravely. The last time I saw him, he was much better, and was off for a holiday at a miner's convalescence home.

    He suddenly became very ill whilst at the home, and died in an ambulance on the way to hospital. It was a deep shock, as we thought he was getting much better; besides, he was an indestructible sort of chap. He was only in his early forties.

    Edit: I don't think it was the cancer that killed him, but his body just gave up on him.
    Same happened my sister. She fought an aggressive cancer for 4 years, but her body gave up when she was on an operating table, She was 36.
    That's awful. I've lost friends to cancer; family is something else.
    Just heard from my friend waiting for a stem cell transplant that he's got Covid. He's already beaten the odds half a dozen times, so fingers crossed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    edited August 7
    Edit
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,788
    edited August 7

    Andy_JS said:

    Mark Butcher - It’s just horrendous news and I just hope that he’s in a better place now, that’s all.

    “It’s very distressing, principally for his family,” Atherton said.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/08/06/mark-butcher-graham-thorpe-michael-atherton-cork-tribute/

    Maybe I reading too much into that comment, but that doesn't make it sound like he died of something like cancer. It rather sounds like he killed himself.

    On the other hand he's had the illness for a couple of years. Very sad.
    But the comments are one of shock, as if it was unexpected and distressing for the family. If you have some serious illness for 2 years, normally the comments are along the lines of battled bravely, but unfortunately couldn't overcome it, died surrounded by their family, thoughts go out to the wife / kids. And there is no word of whatever the illness was etc.
    A dear friend of mine had been ill with cancer for a couple of years, and had battled it bravely. The last time I saw him, he was much better, and was off for a holiday at a miner's convalescence home.

    He suddenly became very ill whilst at the home, and died in an ambulance on the way to hospital. It was a deep shock, as we thought he was getting much better; besides, he was an indestructible sort of chap. He was only in his early forties.

    Edit: I don't think it was the cancer that killed him, but his body just gave up on him.
    Same happened my sister. She fought an aggressive cancer for 4 years, but her body gave up when she was on an operating table, She was 36.
    Damn, that's hard. Sorry to hear that: major sympathies. ☹️
  • ArchvaldorArchvaldor Posts: 18

    To answer the thread - imo we should describe her as the favourite if, and only if, she is shorter odds than Trump in the markets. Even if she were 99% to win in reality. Because that's what favourite means.

    I was meaning in the sense of the polling.
    Polling is massively biased towards centrist candidates to the extent of being essentially useless.

    The Labour party got 6% less than predicted, Biden similarly under-performed. It didn't matter to the result because they had giant leads in the first place but in a close election the value has to be on Trump.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    For those equating the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America with Lutheran state churches in Scandinavia, note that ELCA is but one - albeit one of the largest - of a plethora of Lutheran denominations in USA:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Lutheran_denominations_in_North_America

    Plethora of different Lutheran churches stems from variety of splits, schisms, mergers, etc. based on theological, national and other differences and differentiations.

    In my humble (or otherwise) section of Seattle, there are plenty of Lutheran options, including two on my regular route to my morning coffee. One also nearby is the Finnish Lutheran Church.

    Seattle has so many Lutheran congregations due to the prevalence of Norwegians, Swedes, Danes and Finns (in approximately that order) among first & second generation immigrants in late 19th and early 20th centuries. In addition to direct immigration, even more indirect from Minnesota and the Dakotas.

    HOWEVER note that ethnic heritage of Tim Walz is primarily German, according to his wiki bio.

    A large number of Protestant Germans are indeed Lutheran. In fact in Europe, the Lutheran churches are, under the Porvoo declaration actually in full communion with the Anglican/Episcopalian churches too. It's an open and very humane version of Christianity. The ritual, quite often influenced by Bach, is sonorous and beautiful too.
    My brother's brother in law is an Evangelican Lutheran Pastor in Schwelsig Holstein, and so far as I can see theologically and structurally it is very similar to the Anglican/Episcopelian Church. Indeed I did a Bible reading in a family service there once.
    Which parish ? Im sat in Hamburg and could do with some divine assistance.
    If you go to the Garden Hotel Poseldorf and have breakfast they serve a soft boiled egg in a wine flute. I've never worked out how they do it and it has driven me to distraction. If you get your divine assistance would you mind asking about my boiled egg?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    A British terror suspect and associate of the notorious “White Widow” has been deported from Kenya to the UK after completing a lengthy jail sentence.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/08/jermaine-grant-kenya-deported/
This discussion has been closed.