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The choice of running mate by Kamala Harris could be crucial – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,573
    And so it begins...



    Morning Joe
    @Morning_Joe

    Democrats cautiously optimistic they finally have first female president
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    And so it begins...

    Morning Joe
    @Morning_Joe

    Democrats cautiously optimistic they finally have first female president

    The shameless ramping is hillarious.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,820
    DavidL said:

    She was spot on. At his nomination Kavanaugh said Roe was “settled as a precedent of the Supreme Court” and that it is “entitled the respect under principles of stare decisis.” He also said that “as a judge” he would respect the Roe precedent.

    “And one of the important things to keep in mind about Roe v. Wade is that it has been reaffirmed many times over the past 45 years, as you know, and most prominently, most importantly, reaffirmed in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992,” he continued. “When that came up, the Supreme Court didn’t reaffirm it in passing.”

    Kavanaugh went on to explain that Casey very carefully and explicitly reaffirmed Roe under the plurality opinion by then-Justices Sandra Day O’Connor, Anthony Kennedy, and David Souter.

    He's, to use a technical term, a lying shit.
    Kamala Harris: Can you think of any laws that give the government the power to make decisions about the male body?

    Brett Kavanaugh: I'm not thinking of any right now..

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1815770917571576231

    During that exchange, he takes on the patented Tucker Carlson expression of dumb insolence.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830

    And so it begins...



    Morning Joe
    @Morning_Joe

    Democrats cautiously optimistic they finally have first female president

    What begins? - the overconfidence, you mean?

    You're getting HRC vibes?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,573
    kinabalu said:

    What begins? - the overconfidence, you mean?

    You're getting HRC vibes?
    Yep.

    They should not be optimistic. They should be terrified they are looking like they will lose and they should be working their socks off to find out where they are failing to convince and doing something. At least with a candidate who has energy and is clearly able to actually do the four year term things are looking a little better.

    And she went to Wisconsin which is more than HRC did.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Nigelb said:

    Kamala Harris: Can you think of any laws that give the government the power to make decisions about the male body?

    Brett Kavanaugh: I'm not thinking of any right now..

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1815770917571576231

    During that exchange, he takes on the patented Tucker Carlson expression of dumb insolence.
    And there is no constitutional or legal right to terminate a baby's life up until birth either, Roe was just the other extreme
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited July 2024
    kjh said:


    @HYUFD I have only seen a few of the comments earlier re the Falklands, but we have discussed this on an earlier occasion. The Falklands was not an easy war to win. If they had invaded the Isle of Wight it would have been, but the Falklands is much further away. The Exocet threat to the Aircraft Carriers was significant and could have ended the attempt there and then. The loss of the Atlantic Conveyor was key, depriving the Army of transport helicopters. It could have been worse.There are many more examples that put it on a knife edge, but to give one with the opinion of someone who should know:

    The Argentinean Air Force bombed our ships too low to enable the arming of their bombs causing several direct hits not to explode. They fixed that issue.

    Lord Craig, the retired Marshal of the Royal Air Force, is said to have remarked on that failure: "Six better fuses and we would have lost" I suspect he knows better than you or I. It was touch and go.

    Maybe but the Falklands was British sovereign territory with inhabitants who wished to stay British and we correctly used all means to defend it.

    We also had submarines with nuclear weapons the Argentines didn't and a better trained army, whereas the Chinese had nuclear weapons like us and a bigger army so defending Hong Kong once the lease expired was never a realistic prospect in the same way. There was also no lease for the Falklands, it was permanently British as long as the inhabitants wished it that way
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,309

    Yep.

    They should not be optimistic. They should be terrified they are looking like they will lose and they should be working their socks off to find out where they are failing to convince and doing something. At least with a candidate who has energy and is clearly able to actually do the four year term things are looking a little better.

    And she went to Wisconsin which is more than HRC did.
    Far too complacent. I think they’re allowed to be optimistic - at present the switcheroo has gone better than anyone imagined and it looks like Harris is making inroads. But they are still in a tie, or slightly behind, and they have ground to make up.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Nigelb said:

    Your advice to the Democrats has thus far been consistently wrong, so I'm laying Shapiro.
    No it hasn't, Harris has no clear poll lead in the poll average at present and without Shapiro helping her win Pennsylvania she almost certainly loses it to Trump and the EC and election
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,379

    The lesser-known, the better they polled. If 'Beverley Saunders' had been on the list she'd have polled the best.
    Given the importance of the Leader of the Opposition in the aftermath of a landslide defeat, electing a disembodied name as a placeholder for a couple of years might be worth a try.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    HYUFD said:

    No it hasn't,
    5 stages of grief?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Sandpit said:

    I know both Democrat and Republican Catholics.

    It depends on whether you place a higher value on wealth distribution or social issues, as Catholics generally believe in both. If the Dems go hard on abortion, that has the potential to turn much of the Catholic vote Republican.
    Indeed whereas some evangelicals are fine with prosperity gospel and living in mansions with private jets and limos while also bashing abortion, not even Catholic Bishops let alone priests have anywhere near that luxury, indeed Catholic priests take a poverty vow
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197
    Nigelb said:

    Not quite everything.

    That's a while longer.
    https://www.quantamagazine.org/vacuum-of-space-to-decay-sooner-than-expected-but-still-not-soon-20240722/
    ...Recently, a group of physicists in Slovenia claimed to have found a small error in the calculation, one that quickens the end of the universe as we know it to 10^790 years, instead of 10^794..
    So you're saying my pension is a waste of money?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,558
    HYUFD said:

    Maybe but the Falklands was British sovereign territory with inhabitants who wished to stay British and we correctly used all means to defend it.

    We also had submarines with nuclear weapons the Argentines didn't and a better trained army, whereas the Chinese had nuclear weapons like us and a bigger army so defending Hong Kong once the lease expired was never a realistic prospect in the same way. There was also no lease for the Falklands, it was permanently British as long as the inhabitants wished it that way
    I'm not disagreeing with the defending of it, although there are merits on discussing that, nor anything else you have said in that post. Just disagreeing it was easy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    kjh said:

    I assume though (although I could be wrong) that Catholics are more likely to be Democrats and Conservative Evangelicals more likely Republican therefore the lose of the Catholic vote is more important.
    Hispanic Catholics lean Democrat, white Catholics lean Republican but neither are as Republican as white conservative Evangelicals.

    Black evangelicals are normally Democrat
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    Looks like some realism has seeped back in after the Kamala excitement yesterday on betfair.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    maaarsh said:

    Looks like some realism has seeped back in after the Kamala excitement yesterday on betfair.

    I think it's becoming nearly as good as Brian Rose. Each to his own.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197

    The Gay vs the Ex-Gay. Or Definitely Not Gay. Or My "Mentor" is Gay, but I'm Not Gay.

    OK?

    Welcome to America in 2024.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMdPj3HXMgQ
    Like I said. Hilarious.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,558
    DavidL said:

    So you're saying my pension is a waste of money?
    If you plan to live that long and have a DB pension you are quids in. If you have a DC pension you are in big trouble.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,820
    HYUFD said:

    And there is no constitutional or legal right to terminate a baby's life up until birth either, Roe was just the other extreme
    Roe was a consensus decision, not an extreme.
    And you (as you often do) inaccurately caricature what is said.

    ..This right of privacy, whether it be founded in the Fourteenth Amendment's concept of personal liberty and restrictions upon state action, as we feel it is, or, as the District Court determined, in the Ninth Amendment's reservation of rights to the people, is broad enough to encompass a woman's decision whether to terminate her pregnancy...

    ...A State may properly assert important interests in safeguarding health, maintaining medical standards, and in protecting potential life. At some point in pregnancy, these respective interests become sufficiently compelling to sustain regulation of the factors that govern the abortion decision. ... We, therefore, conclude that the right of personal privacy includes the abortion decision, but that this right is not unqualified and must be considered against important state interests in regulation...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,820
    ydoethur said:

    5 stages of grief?
    Michelle Obama is still third favourite for the Presidency.
    Albeit now out to about 85 on Betfair.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346
    Leon said:

    I have just bought an artisanal cheese knife from juan the blacksmith who fashions daggars and swords from scrap metal in his own forge set in the 12th century walls of the fortified Templar town of Saint Eulalie-de-Cernon

    Are you thinking of launching a line of whittled cheese themed sex aids to add to you flint knapped range?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197
    Nigelb said:

    Kamala Harris: Can you think of any laws that give the government the power to make decisions about the male body?

    Brett Kavanaugh: I'm not thinking of any right now..

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1815770917571576231

    During that exchange, he takes on the patented Tucker Carlson expression of dumb insolence.
    It will be a grim irony if Trump's decision to put these lying fools onto the SC (Kavanaugh was far from alone in his lies) ends up costing him re-election. FWIW (and subject to my repeated acknowledgements that I do not understand the American psyche at all) I think that it will. Abortion was always going to be a big element of this election but with Harris in the driving seat it may prove to be the central question. The irony is made all the more delicious in that I don't think Trump ever gave a damn about it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830

    Yep.

    They should not be optimistic. They should be terrified they are looking like they will lose and they should be working their socks off to find out where they are failing to convince and doing something. At least with a candidate who has energy and is clearly able to actually do the four year term things are looking a little better.

    And she went to Wisconsin which is more than HRC did.
    Now there's a viable DEM candidate I've reconnected with my previous long-held confidence that America will not re-elect Donald Trump. However, given the horror of that prospect, I don't like the idea even of it being close. Close means unbearable tension, 'events' and randomness deciding things, and the strong possibility of shenanigans with the corrupt Supreme Court.

    I'm so emotionally invested in this election, I really do see it as Light v Dark on the biggest stage, that I'm not sure I should also have a lot of money riding on the outcome. I'm thinking of netting my book right down to small profit/loss on Harris/Trump respectively. Probably I won't but I am considering it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited July 2024
    kjh said:

    If you plan to live that long and have a DB pension you are quids in. If you have a DC pension you are in big trouble.
    Most now have DC private pensions, so the Triple Locked state pension looks set to stay indefinitely as it would be electoral suicide to get rid of it as DC private pensions do not provide most pensioners with enough in retirement
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830
    edited July 2024
    maaarsh said:

    Looks like some realism has seeped back in after the Kamala excitement yesterday on betfair.

    Hasn't moved that much. Trump 1.6 vs Harris 2.8.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited July 2024
    DavidL said:

    It will be a grim irony if Trump's decision to put these lying fools onto the SC (Kavanaugh was far from alone in his lies) ends up costing him re-election. FWIW (and subject to my repeated acknowledgements that I do not understand the American psyche at all) I think that it will. Abortion was always going to be a big element of this election but with Harris in the driving seat it may prove to be the central question. The irony is made all the more delicious in that I don't think Trump ever gave a damn about it.
    Though the anti Roe SC likely stays for some time even if Harris wins, so he will have eternal reward in heaven with the other conservative evangelicals he can join for all eternity even if he loses
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,864
    DavidL said:

    It will be a grim irony if Trump's decision to put these lying fools onto the SC (Kavanaugh was far from alone in his lies) ends up costing him re-election. FWIW (and subject to my repeated acknowledgements that I do not understand the American psyche at all) I think that it will. Abortion was always going to be a big element of this election but with Harris in the driving seat it may prove to be the central question. The irony is made all the more delicious in that I don't think Trump ever gave a damn about it.
    A further irony is that Trump's position is surely the obvious way to detoxify the issue by removing it from national politics. Both sides need to be more tolerant of the existence of people within the United States who disagree with them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197
    HYUFD said:

    Though the anti Roe SC likely stays for some time even if Harris loses, so he will have eternal reward in heaven with the other conservative evangelicals he can join for all eternity
    And I can't think of a better punishment for him than that!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    Leon said:

    I have just bought an artisanal cheese knife from juan the blacksmith who fashions daggars and swords from scrap metal in his own forge set in the 12th century walls of the fortified Templar town of Saint Eulalie-de-Cernon

    The shards from a fractured, poorly made, cheese knife really detract from the whole cheese experience I find.

    (I might consider a Japanese artisanal blacksmiths product, but with that one exception I'd avoid)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    The next President market has lost its marbles in my view. Insanity!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Nigelb said:

    Roe was a consensus decision, not an extreme.
    And you (as you often do) inaccurately caricature what is said.

    ..This right of privacy, whether it be founded in the Fourteenth Amendment's concept of personal liberty and restrictions upon state action, as we feel it is, or, as the District Court determined, in the Ninth Amendment's reservation of rights to the people, is broad enough to encompass a woman's decision whether to terminate her pregnancy...

    ...A State may properly assert important interests in safeguarding health, maintaining medical standards, and in protecting potential life. At some point in pregnancy, these respective interests become sufficiently compelling to sustain regulation of the factors that govern the abortion decision. ... We, therefore, conclude that the right of personal privacy includes the abortion decision, but that this right is not unqualified and must be considered against important state interests in regulation...


    A right of personal liberty and protection of peoples' rights does not give the right to terminate human life up to birth, not least as that contradicts protecting potential life you mention and the judges mentioned. It is up to the states where they decide human life begins not the Federal govt
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202

    The Gay vs the Ex-Gay. Or Definitely Not Gay. Or My "Mentor" is Gay, but I'm Not Gay.

    OK?

    Welcome to America in 2024.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMdPj3HXMgQ
    The Gay vs the Senator for Narnia.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    edited July 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Though the anti Roe SC likely stays for some time even if Harris wins, so he will have eternal reward in heaven with the other conservative evangelicals he can join for all eternity even if he loses
    deleted, you'd corrected it.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Omnium said:

    The shards from a fractured, poorly made, cheese knife really detract from the whole cheese experience I find.

    (I might consider a Japanese artisanal blacksmiths product, but with that one exception I'd avoid)
    That truly was a Hattori Hanzo cheese knife.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    kinabalu said:

    Hasn't moved that much. Trump 1.6 vs Harris 2.8.
    It steadily moved from 1.6 to 1.7 in increments yesterday as people got on the Shamala train - has retraced its steps today given she is regretably the same awful candidate she ever was.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830

    A further irony is that Trump's position is surely the obvious way to detoxify the issue by removing it from national politics. Both sides need to be more tolerant of the existence of people within the United States who disagree with them.
    They had a settled balanced position with Roe v Wade. Upending that was not an exercise in detoxification.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,402
    Sandpit said:

    Start here: https://infiniteundo.com/post/25326999628/falsehoods-programmers-believe-about-time
    A lot of that is about internal computer clocks, rather than time per se, but yes, it's a minefield. ISTR some computer systems called the year 2000 a leap year, when it was not, as the programmers forgot the rules:

    *) If the year is divisible by 4, it is a leap year.
    *) Unless it is divisible by 100, in which case it is not a leap year.
    *) Unless it is divisible by 400, in which case it is.

    So 1900 was not a leap year, but 2000 was. 2100 will not be, but 2400 will be. Some systems (I think Excel) called 1900 a leap year if you put it in a cell.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,558
    HYUFD said:

    Most now have DC private pensions, so the Triple Locked state pension looks set to stay indefinitely as it would be electoral suicide to get rid of it as DC private pensions do not provide most pensioners with enough in retirement
    It was a joke. If you live to the end of the universe a DB pension would be quite profitable whereas the best DC pension even Bill Gates could buy would be rubbish.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    maaarsh said:

    It steadily moved from 1.6 to 1.7 in increments yesterday as people got on the Shamala train - has retraced its steps today given she is regretably the same awful candidate she ever was.
    Awww, look who ignored RCS's tip of Kamala at 40 last week.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    kinabalu said:

    They had a settled balanced position with Roe v Wade. Upending that was not an exercise in detoxification.
    Evidently it wasn't settled, and balanced is clearly laughable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    Omnium said:

    The next President market has lost its marbles in my view. Insanity!

    That just reflects the state of one of the candidates.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830
    maaarsh said:

    It steadily moved from 1.6 to 1.7 in increments yesterday as people got on the Shamala train - has retraced its steps today given she is regretably the same awful candidate she ever was.
    What's this "Shamala" business?

    You're not a MAGA moron, are you?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,864
    kinabalu said:

    They had a settled balanced position with Roe v Wade. Upending that was not an exercise in detoxification.
    We managed to tolerate part of the UK not allowing abortion for decades without it ever becoming a national political football.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,864
    Muesli said:

    The Gay vs the Senator for Narnia.
    Where does the idea that Vance is gay come from?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482

    We managed to tolerate part of the UK not allowing abortion for decades without it ever becoming a national political football.
    Well it couldn't have become a football when women weren't allowed to play.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Where does the idea that Vance is gay come from?
    His autobiography.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    I am unbelievably glad I live in a country where abortion is not a live political debate, because everyone grasps that it isn’t a simple one.

    In due course we might need to drop the age limit a smidge, but I think our position reflects reality, including the one that, like it or not, if you ban it then it will still happen on kitchen tables and people will die. I do not understand why Americans do not grasp this.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830
    maaarsh said:

    Evidently it wasn't settled, and balanced is clearly laughable.
    It was settled for decades. And yes it was balanced. It was not that different to how we have it here - abortion neither banned nor compulsory.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Had no idea that some Catholics have a problem with Kamala Harris.

    "Catholics warn of Kamala Harris’ record of ‘anti-Catholic bigotry’"

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jul/23/traditional-catholics-warn-of-kamala-harriss-recor/

    The way she went on you would think that the Knights of St Columba were some sort of sinister catholic Freemasons.

    Any fule knows that you join the Catenians for that.

    I was invited to join once but declined.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    kinabalu said:

    What's this "Shamala" business?

    You're not a MAGA moron, are you?
    It was a Fielding reference but I'll be more careful not to offend the preferred candidate in future.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346
    kinabalu said:

    What's this "Shamala" business?

    You're not a MAGA moron, are you?
    There seems to be more here than one would expect. I am particularly surprised by one of our senior posters.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    biggles said:

    I am unbelievably glad I live in a country where abortion is not a live political debate, because everyone grasps that it isn’t a simple one.

    In due course we might need to drop the age limit a smidge, but I think our position reflects reality, including the one that, like it or not, if you ban it then it will still happen on kitchen tables and people will die. I do not understand why Americans do not grasp this.

    We've chosen, and chosen well, to keep all sorts of things out of politics. Religion is the obvious example, and the policy of 'just get on with it' has worked magnificently for centuries, and I hope that the mad mullahs of Ealing just do that. (I'm not sure there are any mad mullahs in Ealing). Sex! Tricky for us Brits - but it's the same thing - all a bit unpleasant and happens mostly behind closed doors for a reason, but the variety of it really isn't so important.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    kinabalu said:

    It was settled for decades. And yes it was balanced. It was not that different to how we have it here - abortion neither banned nor compulsory.
    Strawman. Nobody argues for abortion to be compulsory.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    kinabalu said:

    It was settled for decades. And yes it was balanced. It was not that different to how we have it here - abortion neither banned nor compulsory.
    'Settling' a political debate by judicial fiat such that one of the 2 parties of government makes it a core part of their platform to over-turn it was not settled in any meaningful sense. The proof is clearly in the pudding.

    And yes it's abundantly clear that for most people how we have things here is 'normal' and thus the issue isn't worth any serious thought, but that doesn't make it so. To the previous point, inventing a constitutional right which was clearly not there wasn't balance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    A lot of that is about internal computer clocks, rather than time per se, but yes, it's a minefield. ISTR some computer systems called the year 2000 a leap year, when it was not, as the programmers forgot the rules:

    *) If the year is divisible by 4, it is a leap year.
    *) Unless it is divisible by 100, in which case it is not a leap year.
    *) Unless it is divisible by 400, in which case it is.

    So 1900 was not a leap year, but 2000 was. 2100 will not be, but 2400 will be. Some systems (I think Excel) called 1900 a leap year if you put it in a cell.
    But it was a leap year, as you note below.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 2024
    kinabalu said:

    It was settled for decades. And yes it was balanced. It was not that different to how we have it here - abortion neither banned nor compulsory.
    Balanced in that unelected judges interpreted a privavy clause in a constitution written by a bunch of men who made Ian Paisley look like a Catholic as giving a right to Abortion.

    Whatever you think about the subject, it was decided here by our elected representatives and if you want it change you need to win an election with sufficient electoral representatives.

    That decision by unelected judges poisoned the US body politic and basically caused the culture wars.

    It is a warning of the dangers of written constitutions elevating the unlected judges who interpret them over elected representatitives. And a warning of the dangers of federations (Hurrah for Brexit).

    We now have neither other than the residual interference of a supranational proto constitutional court (for now).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    But it was a leap year, as you note below.
    Leap years: 1600, 2000, 2400
    Not leap years: 1700, 1800, 1900, 2100, 2200, 2300, 2500
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Chaos at the Olympics on Day -2...

    15 minutes added time in the football with Morocco leading Argentina 2-1.

    Pitch invader during the added time.

    Argentina equalise in the 16th minute of added time, Morocco fans throw Coke cups and bottles on the field, the ref takes the players off, and the TV broadcast assumes that's full time.

    An hour later, VAR disallows the goal, and the players have to come back for three minutes in an empty stadium.

    Which sees no further goals, and Morocco win.
  • Driver said:

    Strawman. Nobody argues for abortion to be compulsory.
    Deng Xiaoping says hello.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    Sandpit said:

    Leap years: 1600, 2000, 2400
    Not leap years: 1700, 1800, 1900, 2100, 2200, 2300, 2500
    Although wasn't 1600 before they did the new calculations? Hence why in 1752 there was an 11 day jump.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,309
    kinabalu said:

    Hasn't moved that much. Trump 1.6 vs Harris 2.8.
    A difficult market to judge at the moment. Probably a fair reflection of the state of play at the moment - but it feels like things are in a state of flux until more polling filters through with Harris as the candidate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,820
    maaarsh said:

    It was a Fielding reference but I'll be more careful not to offend the preferred candidate in future.
    You misspelled it, then, offending PB pedants of all political persuasions.
  • Nigelb said:

    Kamala Harris: Can you think of any laws that give the government the power to make decisions about the male body?

    Brett Kavanaugh: I'm not thinking of any right now..

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1815770917571576231

    During that exchange, he takes on the patented Tucker Carlson expression of dumb insolence.
    Of course abortion impacts the male body. How dare you imply that those who identify as male don't have wombs
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Driver said:

    Chaos at the Olympics on Day -2...

    15 minutes added time in the football with Morocco leading Argentina 2-1.

    Pitch invader during the added time.

    Argentina equalise in the 16th minute of added time, Morocco fans throw Coke cups and bottles on the field, the ref takes the players off, and the TV broadcast assumes that's full time.

    An hour later, VAR disallows the goal, and the players have to come back for three minutes in an empty stadium.

    Which sees no further goals, and Morocco win.

    What a farce.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,693
    edited July 2024
    This is my photo for the day, and a question. It is the "Public Art" installation at "Fold Street" launched this afternoon by Samsung, with TfL, Taylor Herring, St Marks Studios and Iris (creative agency types I think).

    Do we have anyone who goes home that way? I'm interested to see what you think.

    They have messed around with the readability of station signs, and installed various "folded" items in the middle of pavements. Imagine approaching that in a powerchair from the Right Hand Side in the dark.

    For a fair comparison with a parallel for non-disabled people, what would happen if they replaced all the road signs at a junction with ones pointing in the wrong direction for "art", and for fun replaced manhole covers with identical looking ones made from thin plastic for the public to fall down?

    If this is what it looks like, and I accept I can't know until I have seen a proper site report, Samsung are going to get their nuts somewhat roasted, and perhaps quite quickly. Baroness Tanni-Grey Thompson will have things to say, for a start.

    It can be done creatively and safely, but I think they perhaps just did not think to think.

    https://news.samsung.com/uk/folded-london-bus-stops-the-traffic
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    Sandpit said:

    What a farce.
    The UK government should have bought up all those tickets and bussed in the migrants that have come from France.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,016
    Sandpit said:

    The shameless ramping is hillarious.
    VG (especially if it was inadvertent)

  • HYUFD said:

    Maybe but the Falklands was British sovereign territory with inhabitants who wished to stay British and we correctly used all means to defend it.

    We also had submarines with nuclear weapons the Argentines didn't and a better trained army, whereas the Chinese had nuclear weapons like us and a bigger army so defending Hong Kong once the lease expired was never a realistic prospect in the same way. There was also no lease for the Falklands, it was permanently British as long as the inhabitants wished it that way
    It would have been quite funny though if we had handed over the New Territories to the legitimate Chinese Government, based in Taiwan, and kept a large naval base in Hong Kong itself to assist the legitimate Chinese govednment in fending off the communist terrorists.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,929
    ydoethur said:

    Although wasn't 1600 before they did the new calculations? Hence why in 1752 there was an 11 day jump.
    It is the leap seconds that cause real trouble.

    On the third stroke, it will be 23:59:60...
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Sandpit said:

    What a farce.
    Yeah, it was obvious in real time that VAR was going to have to have a look because it was a fourth attempt on goal (one saved, one saved onto the crossbar and one just hit the crossbar) and that kind of thing always has a chance to have a player offside, but the utter lack of communication to the media when the players went off is strange to say the least. Maybe emptying the stands was the plan...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,231

    Awww, look who ignored RCS's tip of Kamala at 40 last week.
    Me too. I backed Kamala in the teens, long before she reached 40s, largely because Biden's age was hardly a state secret. I just wish I'd gone in again at 40s. As you would. I got Vance at a double figure price although I backed Cotton the same day, so really only half price. Buttigieg was an early pick at, erm, less than the price he has come back into overnight.

    And that's why I cashed out and took my profits. As we approach the winning line, so markets become better informed, squeezing out any value, and we can easily be picked off by insiders with privileged information (as when Rishi's mates plunged on a July election).

    I have no way of knowing whether Kamala will choose Kelly, Shapiro or one of the others. Worse, I might have an opinion, like many PBers, on who she *should* choose, which can be quite dangerous because that is not what the market will be settled on. Even if Kamala agrees with me on the ranking of the candidates, it only takes one 10-year-old tweet to surface and the top man is bottom.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    A further irony is that Trump's position is surely the obvious way to detoxify the issue by removing it from national politics. Both sides need to be more tolerant of the existence of people within the United States who disagree with them.
    Why should women who live in states like North Carolina or Arizona have to face forced births because convicted felon Donald Trump put a bunch of extremists on the Supreme Court?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,280
    edited July 2024
    kinabalu said:

    Hasn't moved that much. Trump 1.6 vs Harris 2.8.
    Slight value Harris I think but not sure. I've changed my position on Popular Vote - I have long-standing bet on Reps at big odds (so am bigly green) but think this is a value loser and have recently backed Harris for Popular Vote at 2.02 (now 1.49).

    Keenly awaiting Prof Lichtman's prediction. See link:

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2024/07/22/will-kamala-harris-win-2024-us-election-poll-predictor-allan-lichtman-assesses-the-race/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    It would have been quite funny though if we had handed over the New Territories to the legitimate Chinese Government, based in Taiwan, and kept a large naval base in Hong Kong itself to assist the legitimate Chinese govednment in fending off the communist terrorists.
    Is everyone here unaware of just how difficult it would have been to defend Hong Kong against military attack?

    Heck, even Churchill said it wasn't worth more than a token effort at best. If it lasted slightly longer than Singapore that's only because Singapore had pretty much no landward defences at all.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,989
    ydoethur said:

    But it was a leap year, as you note below.
    Oh dear, some of the Y2K code I wrote may not work in 2100.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346
    ...
    Sandpit said:

    The shameless ramping is hillarious.
    Tell me, what attracts you to a Putin-shillling, Ukraine- hating, felonious sex- pest?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830

    We managed to tolerate part of the UK not allowing abortion for decades without it ever becoming a national political football.
    Imagine if abortion was banned in all the English counties that voted Leave. We can't, thankfully.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,280

    Me too. I backed Kamala in the teens, long before she reached 40s, largely because Biden's age was hardly a state secret. I just wish I'd gone in again at 40s. As you would. I got Vance at a double figure price although I backed Cotton the same day, so really only half price. Buttigieg was an early pick at, erm, less than the price he has come back into overnight.

    And that's why I cashed out and took my profits. As we approach the winning line, so markets become better informed, squeezing out any value, and we can easily be picked off by insiders with privileged information (as when Rishi's mates plunged on a July election).

    I have no way of knowing whether Kamala will choose Kelly, Shapiro or one of the others. Worse, I might have an opinion, like many PBers, on who she *should* choose, which can be quite dangerous because that is not what the market will be settled on. Even if Kamala agrees with me on the ranking of the candidates, it only takes one 10-year-old tweet to surface and the top man is bottom.
    I had a tiny bet on Harris to be Dem nominee at 24. Kicking myself I didn't bet more.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    MattW said:

    This is my photo for the day, and a question. It is the "Public Art" installation at "Fold Street" launched this afternoon by Samsung, with TfL, Taylor Herring, St Marks Studios and Iris (creative agency types I think).

    Do we have anyone who goes home that way? I'm interested to see what you think.

    They have messed around with the readability of station signs, and installed various "folded" items in the middle of pavements. Imagine approaching that in a powerchair from the Right Hand Side in the dark.

    For a fair comparison with a parallel for non-disabled people, what would happen if they replaced all the road signs at a junction with ones pointing in the wrong direction for "art", and for fun replaced manhole covers with identical looking ones made from thin plastic for the public to fall down?

    If this is what it looks like, and I accept I can't know until I have seen a proper site report, Samsung are going to get their nuts somewhat roasted, and perhaps quite quickly. Baroness Tanni-Grey Thompson will have things to say, for a start.

    It can be done creatively and safely, but I think they perhaps just did not think to think.

    https://news.samsung.com/uk/folded-london-bus-stops-the-traffic

    I'm reminded of exciting staircases-at-an-angle which look great in Architect's Monthly but in real life ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Driver said:

    Strawman. Nobody argues for abortion to be compulsory.
    Look at C20 history and how certain groups were treated *in the UK*. It did happen.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    edited July 2024
    WillG said:

    Why should women who live in states like North Carolina or Arizona have to face forced births because convicted felon Donald Trump put a bunch of extremists on the Supreme Court?
    A strange couple of examples. Arizona's Territory-era ban isn't enforced and a 15 week limit is coming in; North Carolina allows elective abortion up to 12 weeks.

    Of course, technically elective abortion is illegal in Great Britain.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Workfare in the United Kingdom is a system of welfare regulations put into effect by UK governments at various times. Individuals subject to workfare must undertake work in return for their welfare benefit payments or risk losing them. Workfare policies are politically controversial (but not among SKS fans)
  • FffsFffs Posts: 103
    edited July 2024

    Workfare in the United Kingdom is a system of welfare regulations put into effect by UK governments at various times. Individuals subject to workfare must undertake work in return for their welfare benefit payments or risk losing them. Workfare policies are politically controversial (but not among SKS fans)

    "The neutrality of this article is disputed."

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workfare_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,321
    @JohnO

    Thank you for the link to join the Conservative Party https://membership.conservatives.com/membership/Levels

    After some thought I have decided not to do so. No reflection on the party itself, it's just that to show neutrality I would have to have joined the other parties as well and the combined membership fees was unaffordable.

    If I had joined I would have ceded my vote to you and I am sure you would have cast it in the proper manner. Good luck in the election
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,881
    kinabalu said:

    It was settled for decades. And yes it was balanced. It was not that different to how we have it here - abortion neither banned nor compulsory.
    Some parts of America allow partial late term abortions which are clearly murder?

    There are crazies on both sides. As is ever the case with the USA
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Fffs said:

    "The neutrality of this article is disputed."
    Which bit SKS fans are in favour of forcing disabled to people work aren't they.

    The NHS advisor they brought in certainly is

    But then again Alan Milburn has always been a ****
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,881
    edited July 2024
    Omnium said:

    The shards from a fractured, poorly made, cheese knife really detract from the whole cheese experience I find.

    (I might consider a Japanese artisanal blacksmiths product, but with that one exception I'd avoid)
    I very much doubt I’m going to use it for cheese. It’s insanely impractical. I will likely make it my new letter opener (for which it is perfect - long and slender)

    I have a lot of experience with knives. I’m slightly obsessed

    I actually paid £500 for one knife from a dude who forges them from old car parts on Bodmin Moor

    https://www.atkinson-art.co.uk/product-category/wolf-dingo-chef-knives-for-valhalla/
  • A reminder that Brexit was as much about stopping future EU authoritarian insanities being imposed on this FREE REALM as about reversing the existing ones.

    "The European Union is exploring a controversial proposal to establish a centralized “Asset Register,” a comprehensive database designed to track citizens’ assets across the bloc. This initiative aims to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, but has also raised concerns on privacy and data protection.

    The proposed register would encompass a wide range of assets, such as real estate, bank accounts, securities, vehicles, art, and precious metals. The final list will be determined based on the outcomes of a feasibility study and subsequent legislative decisions."

    https://coinedition.com/eus-controversial-asset-registry-proposal-sparks-privacy-debate/
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited July 2024
    Mark Kelly would seem the ideal candidate for VP .

    His terrific back story , son of 2 police officers , flew combat missions and notably went onto become an astronaut who did 4 space missions . He’s devoted to his wife Gabby Gifffords who was nearly killed in a gun rampage and is just an all round lovely guy.

    I think Josh Shapiro is a good candidate but his back story is unlikely to resonate as well with the swing states . He won Pennsylvania but that was against a total nutjob and the VP appeal needs to be broad in terms of the range of swing states IMO .

    I think it’s between those 2 . I don’t see Buttigieg getting the nod, his sexuality whether we want to admit it or not will be an issue for some people.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,379
    edited July 2024
    Meanwhile, in "life is precious" news,

    In @time, Trump’s nephew recounts a conversation w/ then-president Trump after 2020 White House meeting with disability advocates.

    “Those people…” Trump said of people w/ complex care needs. “The shape they’re in, all the expenses, maybe those kinds of people should just die.”

    https://twitter.com/AnnaBower/status/1816156132756369604
  • Which bit SKS fans are in favour of forcing disabled to people work aren't they.

    The NHS advisor they brought in certainly is

    But then again Alan Milburn has always been a ****
    Given that disabled now covers millions of people with all sorts of conditions, most of whom are both quite capable of working and likely to benefit (mental health wise) from doing so, what is the issue?

    Craig Mckinlay (ex MP) has no arms or legs but I'm sure would be outraged if you say he is incapable of working.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,881
    Omnium said:

    We've chosen, and chosen well, to keep all sorts of things out of politics. Religion is the obvious example, and the policy of 'just get on with it' has worked magnificently for centuries, and I hope that the mad mullahs of Ealing just do that. (I'm not sure there are any mad mullahs in Ealing). Sex! Tricky for us Brits - but it's the same thing - all a bit unpleasant and happens mostly behind closed doors for a reason, but the variety of it really isn't so important.
    You might ask a teacher in Batley how well we are “keeping religion out of politics”

    Thanks to Muslim immigration we now have a de facto blasphemy law backed up by a de facto death penalty
  • viewcode said:

    @JohnO

    Thank you for the link to join the Conservative Party https://membership.conservatives.com/membership/Levels

    After some thought I have decided not to do so. No reflection on the party itself, it's just that to show neutrality I would have to have joined the other parties as well and the combined membership fees was unaffordable.

    If I had joined I would have ceded my vote to you and I am sure you would have cast it in the proper manner. Good luck in the election

    You would also have to live with the rest of us pointing out that you are/were a card carrying Tory for ever more.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,016

    A reminder that Brexit was as much about stopping future EU authoritarian insanities being imposed on this FREE REALM as about reversing the existing ones.

    "The European Union is exploring a controversial proposal to establish a centralized “Asset Register,” a comprehensive database designed to track citizens’ assets across the bloc. This initiative aims to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, but has also raised concerns on privacy and data protection.

    The proposed register would encompass a wide range of assets, such as real estate, bank accounts, securities, vehicles, art, and precious metals. The final list will be determined based on the outcomes of a feasibility study and subsequent legislative decisions."

    https://coinedition.com/eus-controversial-asset-registry-proposal-sparks-privacy-debate/

    The EU's very own doomsday book.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Given that disabled now covers millions of people with all sorts of conditions, most of whom are both quite capable of working and likely to benefit (mental health wise) from doing so, what is the issue?

    Craig Mckinlay (ex MP) has no arms or legs but I'm sure would be outraged if you say he is incapable of working.

    You don't even need to guess. Just look up what he said when Douglas Ross sacked him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Meanwhile, in "life is precious" news,

    In @time, Trump’s nephew recounts a conversation w/ then-president Trump after 2020 White House meeting with disability advocates.

    “Those people…” Trump said of people w/ complex care needs. “The shape they’re in, all the expenses, maybe those kinds of people should just die.”

    https://twitter.com/AnnaBower/status/1816156132756369604

    Well some right to die euthanasia supporters would have agreed with him, however he seems to be more conservative now on both euthanasia and abortion than he was
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Meanwhile, in "life is precious" news,

    In @time, Trump’s nephew recounts a conversation w/ then-president Trump after 2020 White House meeting with disability advocates.

    “Those people…” Trump said of people w/ complex care needs. “The shape they’re in, all the expenses, maybe those kinds of people should just die.”

    https://twitter.com/AnnaBower/status/1816156132756369604

    Can I make an incredibly bad taste joke about how Mr Crooks seemed to have a similar idea?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,929
    geoffw said:

    The EU's very own doomsday book.

    What's the betting this government signs up to it, should it actually happen?

    Bonus points for guessing who will be excluded.
This discussion has been closed.