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The choice of running mate by Kamala Harris could be crucial – politicalbetting.com
The choice of running mate by Kamala Harris could be crucial – politicalbetting.com
JD Vance is making history as the least liked VP nominee (non-incumbent) since 1980 following his/her party's convention. He's the first to have a net negative favorable rating. Not surprising given how weak he ran in Ohio in 2022. Far worse than the average Ohio Republican. pic.twitter.com/hlZziePkKe
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Have been reading up on an early 20th-century American political boss, namely Ed Crump of Memphis, Tennessee.
Mr. Crump (what everybody called him, probably even his wife) ruled the roost in Memphis and Shelby County for decades. AND was a major political force - indeed THE major individual politico - in Tennessee state politics. Crump was far more honest than most big city bosses, and was truly dedicated and diligent in planning and providing for public services and economic growth for Memphis and it's region. What was the secret of his political success? Mobilizing working -class Whites AND Black voters in support of his candidates, while at the same time pleasing or at least assuaging the White elites AND middle-class. While he was NOT a civil rights pioneer, Crump was respected and even liked by the Black community, because he actually did something for them in return for their taxes AND support; PLUS his organization paid the poll tax required then in Tennessee and most Southern states, for less affluent supporters, White and especially Black.
Anyway, in 1940, the mayor of Memphis, resigned after tangling with Mr. Crump. Deputy mayor (a Crump man) succeeded, until the next election.
Crump's first choice was the local Democratic congressman (Republicans being thin on the ground back then, at least among eligible voters). However, the Congressman pointed out that his vote was needed on a key vote for one of FDR's defense AND pro-Allied measures (prior to Pearl Harbor).
So what to do?
> Mr. Crump decided that HE would run for mayor (he'd been previously elected before WWI) even though he had no interest in doing the job. He ran, and won with the usual landslide for a Crump candidate.
> Then shortly after being sworn in - and after the critical vote in Congress - Mayor Crump resigned, and the Memphis city commission selected as his replacement . . . the Congressman. Who then resigned his seat in the US House; the subsequent election being won by . . . wait for it . . . Mr. Crump's chosen candidate.
Crump's machine started to sputter in 1948, when he endorsed Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond for POTUS versus Harry Truman. Many of Mr. Crump's White and even more of his Black followers refused to follow him in the Fall, and thereafter. However, didn't lose his political grip in Memphis or Tennessee - or widespread respect for him - until his death in 1950s.
If she’d made a different choice, the party might have had the opportunity to select a better candidate.
He's probably got till the end of the DNC if he wants to do it - after that ballots will be being printed, state deadlines passing...
Will there be a wildcat metro strike on the night of the 100m final, so they run in a half-empty stadium and have tens of thousands of furious ticket-holders?
They all have reasonably strong positives.
I see no missing words in the headline.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/24/crowdstrike-overhaul-software-updates-global-outage/
Crowdstrike to overhaul the way they do software updates, after they inadvertently crashed an estimated 9,000,000 computers last Friday.
Her ex husband quipped "you just don't like sport much" (they're a bit like that - friendly with each other but can't resist the odd dig).
Hopefully once the games commence they'll all embrace the excitement and civic pride that comes with hosting, and try to enjoy it.
You can already see the 2028 (Or 32) hopefuls lining up tbh.
(There's still a lot we don't know about how DNA biology operates.)
The correlation between CpG methylation and gene expression is driven by sequence variants
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-024-01851-2
..In this study, we assigned CpG methylation, gene expression and alleles of sequence variants to parental haplotypes, allowing us to investigate correlations between the three sets of measurements on a haplotype level. We used these data to identify MDSs and found that, in instances where their CpG methylation correlated with gene expression, a sequence variant was invariably found in association with the CpG methylation of the same MDSs that explained most of the correlation. Hence, in instances where CpG methylation is found in association with both a sequence variant and gene expression, it is important to be cautious about assuming that the sequence variant influences the gene expression through CpG methylation. Indeed, our results are consistent with a model in which the correlations found between CpG methylation and gene expression are mostly byproducts of variability in TF protein binding to DNA created by sequence variants. In this model, TFs, but not CpG methylation, are responsible for influencing gene expression. Nonetheless, our results are equally consistent with a model in which the sequence variant exerts its influences on mRNA expression by affecting CpG methylation. In both models, however, the sequence variant is the primary driver of the correlation between CpG methylation and gene expression...
Just before US entry into WW1, there was a major election for Shelby County commissioner. Which was then controlled by Crump opponents, who managed to get his candidate kicked off the ballot.
So what to do? Mr. Crump decided to run his man as a write-in candidate. Which is heavy lifting as anyone who's participated or observed one knows. Even harder a century ago in the Deep South due to low literacy rates, particularly among African Americans who, unlike in most of Dixie, were allowed to vote.
AND just to increase the difficulty, the surname of Mr. Crump's choice was Riechman - in an electoral environment where his name as a write-in vote had to be spelled just like that, with zero room for misspelling, according to state law AND scrutiny of Crump's political opponents.
The Crump organization, in addition to its usual organizing AND poll-tax paying, embarked on a massive campaign of voter education. Including signboard advertising the right way to write "RIECHMAN" on the write-in line.
Who won with a landslide, thus demonstrating the effectiveness of the Crump organization, and also the clout of Mr. Crump then and for the next four decades.
My posts are entirely consistent with that position.
I love RTM's story.
As an aside: "During the Morris appeal process, the US court of appeals estimated the cost of removing the virus from each installation was in the range of $200–$53,000." (1)
If even that lower value is used as the cost for Crowdstrike, then they're in *deep* trouble...
(1): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_worm
Could happen.
Though given the roasters at SCOTUS Trump could tell the electoral college to vote for Eric Trump as VPOTUS and they’d back him.
P/E ratio of -676, and that was before this "event".
I think they're absolutely bolloxed.
The only possible value is for the internal knowledge base/IP to one of the magnificent seven now.
It'd make sense for Microsoft to swallow them whole tbh, probably at 0.01 cents/share or something.
If this is an insured loss, it isn't just Crowdstrike going bust...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5CKazpJcd4
"Catholics warn of Kamala Harris’ record of ‘anti-Catholic bigotry’"
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jul/23/traditional-catholics-warn-of-kamala-harriss-recor/
The former security minister, who ran for the leadership after Boris Johnson's tenure, has a net favourability of -3, compared with -28 for Priti Patel, the former home secretary who scored the lowest rating with the public.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-contender-most-popular-with-public-revealed-in-poll-13184190
All but one machine in my office, a print server, came back up with a simple fix - system restore point, getting to a recovery command prompt and deleting the offending file, booting from a Linux USB stick and deleting the offending file etc.
It wasn’t really a virus that required wiping disks and massive loss of data.
We were relatively lucky, in that our business-critical systems don’t see the Internet by design, the same can’t be said for the many airports and airlines affected though, for some the direct costs will be in the tens of millions, and the indirect costs in the tens of millions more.
Relevant voodoo poll
Poll: Will Kamala Harris' choice of Vice President affect your vote in November?
Not at all gets 88%
https://www.washingtontimes.com/polls/2024/jul/23/will-kamala-harris-choice-of-vice-president-affect/results/
UK banks are the best.
IT failures are what keep me up at night.
We’re well prepared for cyber attacks/hacking but I fear the big screw up will be something like this or the Year 2038 bug.
*Everything* will fail.
Then there’s this
https://sgs.princeton.edu/00000000
To say I had the scariest half an hour of my professional career on Friday morning, not knowing the nature of the attack, would be a gross understatement. The sigh of relief when I realised it was our “security” vendor that had fcuked up, rather than a cyber-attack directed at our business, was overwhelming.
A) if the running mate has high negatives, this can become a story. See for instance Palin and potentially now Vance.
B - I can perhaps see a marginal effect if the running mate is really popular. For instance, I would expect a Harris pick of someone like Shapiro might give her a marginal boost in PA.
For a reminder, a list of the running mates in the 21st century. Lieberman, Cheney, Edwards, Biden, Palin, Ryan, Kaine, Pence, Harris. Of all of these I’m not sure any really had any tremendous effect on the race other than Palin.
Just had an email from the conservative party asking me to re-join so I can vote for the new leader
I will not re-join the party until Braverman is irrelevant and my one vote will not make much difference anyway
Furthermore any moves to amalgamate with reform will also see me remain outside their membership
Harris if she has any sense will pick Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro as VP nominee, if she then gets Pennsylvania that is 19 electoral votes in the bag and then high black turnout in Georgia and Detroit Michigan for the Democrat ticket would be enough to see her over the 270 line
I suspect most other banks will wait until 2034.
If you ever want to piss off an IT guy just say to them ‘This is just the Y2K bug all over again, it’s nothing to worry about, nothing happened with that despite the panic.’
Is that the date we're expecting the Tories to elect a sane leader and all computers will crash from sheer astonishment?
Or the year Trump finally gets locked up, and the rocking of the earth on its axis disables all electrical devices?
Might do!
Edit: The Year 292,277,026,596 bug is the result of the upgrade to fix the Year 2038 bug.
They declared the 14th Amendment didn't apply to him. Or indeed the laws of the United States.
Jenrick not polled
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem
She can then afford to lose NV, AZ and one of WI/MI and still win, with PA.
If she is able to really start demonstrating multiple viable routes it becomes much more likely she wins.
I have said before that if the campaign essentially retreats to WI, MI, PA (which was, I think, going to be the only viable strategy for Biden) then it leaves so little room for error. If more states are in play, it means you can miss one or two here and there and still have a decent chance of getting to the 270.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3gFXxAnY1CI
Of course some Catholics will have very strong views on abortion. So does Kamala but her views are radically different.
It was fascinating stuff, but it soon got very, very complex, and was soon abandoned as unnecessary.
I bet someone's done it since.
It depends on whether you place a higher value on wealth distribution or social issues, as Catholics generally believe in both. If the Dems go hard on abortion, that has the potential to turn much of the Catholic vote Republican.
Her aggressive questioning of Kavanaugh on the issue touched a nerve.
As we approached the Templar ramparts of Saint Eulalie-de-Cernon I said to my daughter, as a joke
“I bet there’s an artisanal cutlery maker. There’s ALWAYS an artisanal cutlery maker. I intend to purchase a handmade knife”
And then…. there actually WAS an artisanal cutlery maker. And I purchased a handmade knife
Here he is. Juan the blacksmith
Mr Jenrick and Mr Stride were not included in Savanta's poll tracker because they did not run in the last leadership election.
Stride keeps dropping hints about running this time but I fully expect him to walk away from it in the end.
“And one of the important things to keep in mind about Roe v. Wade is that it has been reaffirmed many times over the past 45 years, as you know, and most prominently, most importantly, reaffirmed in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992,” he continued. “When that came up, the Supreme Court didn’t reaffirm it in passing.”
Kavanaugh went on to explain that Casey very carefully and explicitly reaffirmed Roe under the plurality opinion by then-Justices Sandra Day O’Connor, Anthony Kennedy, and David Souter.
He's, to use a technical term, a lying shit.
Most actual Catholics, meanwhile, generally ignore what the Church has to say on at least contraception and often also on abortion.
Kerching.
@HYUFD I have only seen a few of the comments earlier re the Falklands, but we have discussed this on an earlier occasion. The Falklands was not an easy war to win. If they had invaded the Isle of Wight it would have been, but the Falklands is much further away. The Exocet threat to the Aircraft Carriers was significant and could have ended the attempt there and then. The loss of the Atlantic Conveyor was key, depriving the Army of transport helicopters. It could have been worse.There are many more examples that put it on a knife edge, but to give one with the opinion of someone who should know:
The Argentinean Air Force bombed our ships too low to enable the arming of their bombs causing several direct hits not to explode. They fixed that issue.
Lord Craig, the retired Marshal of the Royal Air Force, is said to have remarked on that failure: "Six better fuses and we would have lost" I suspect he knows better than you or I. It was touch and go.
Like two weeks ago, when Brittany Ferries confiscated my beloved old Spyderco Tenacious, which is not an easy knife to replace without spending ££££
I had no idea they scanned hand luggage for FERRIES. Twits
https://youtu.be/6Rb9b8rYhII
OK?
Welcome to America in 2024.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMdPj3HXMgQ
That's a while longer.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/vacuum-of-space-to-decay-sooner-than-expected-but-still-not-soon-20240722/
...Recently, a group of physicists in Slovenia claimed to have found a small error in the calculation, one that quickens the end of the universe as we know it to 10^790 years, instead of 10^794..
Me, I'm taking a pause while I re-orientate and count my blessings (bookwise) from Joe becoming Kamala. I'm almost flat now instead of miles underwater.