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Will Trump dump J.D. Vance? – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    viewcode said:

    Maya Rudolph as Kamala in the SNL skit VP debate in 2020 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xI_lxFv203I

    That was pretty good, they should definitely bring her back. Have her alongside Shane Gillis as Trump, as they’re obviously not going to use Alec Baldwin this time around.

    I’m not sure anyone will ever top Tina Fey as Sarah Palin though, perhaps the best political impersonation of all time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,846
    DougSeal said:

    There are 220,000 people in Rochdale, more or less. Are you suggesting nearly half its population are survivors of this sexual abuse case or are you pulling figures out of your arse for effect, to inflame tensions yourself? I’m going to assume the latter.
    After Leon's relentless assault, the sun sets on the Biden presidency, so Leon returns to familiar Rochdale territory and in a taxi.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    King's Speech vote is understood to be a vote of confidence. Slightly weird because of the amendment thing, but it's an reasonable point.

    Still, the Witless Whipless Wonders have got the publicity and irrelevance they crave, and now they can say whatever they like.
    It was good to see that the length of suspension was made clear - which I don't remember being so explicit before.

    Of course all 7 are very likely to vote against the Government on other matters so the Labour majority is now 14 less on a permanent basis... But SKS has got rid of a number of left wing problems for at least a while...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,593
    Labour have the wrong priorities in not scrapping the shameful 2 child limit. Though there is an upside for Starmer in being so morally wrong in that he gets to sack a load of “why are these” Labour MPs who now get to sit in solidarity with magic grandpa on the back bench of the chamber.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Some of the tumescent (quite literally in some cases) posts about Kamala Harris on PB today are best read on an empty stomach.

    I have nothing against the lady, she seems quite nice. But let's rein it in just a tad.
    It’s not just here. As I posted yesterday the MSM seems to be losing its mind too. She is being treated as a celebrity rather than a politician. Sky news, BBC news, channel 4 news even ITV news are just treating her with a reverence they seem to reserve for the latest A list luvvie doing a press round promoting whatever dreary movie their plugging.

    One puff piece saying she’s perfectly suited to the presidency for dancing, badly, with some kids.

    Nothing on policy or possible policy positions or any of the challenges ahead.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    DougSeal said:

    There are 220,000 people in Rochdale, more or less. Are you suggesting nearly half its population are survivors of this sexual abuse case or are you pulling figures out of your arse for effect, to inflame tensions yourself? I’m going to assume the latter.
    That would be approximately every female.

    From memory of last time this came up, the maths is 1400 in Rotherham, and that's about one percent of the country, so the total nationwide is about 100000.

    Except it isn't, because that extrapolation doesn't work, for reasons that ought to be obvious to readers of a blog where we talk about polls all the time.

    1400 is 1400 too many, but it's curious that smart people continue to push such an obviously incorrect line.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    edited July 2024

    So America's Gordon Brown then.
    Whether you are a Labour voter or not (I’ve got you down as a “no” there) there way Brown faced significant personal tragedy is an example to us all. Your characterisation of him as a coward (at the very least) is the sort of graceless uber partisan personal invective that we (and I include myself in this - I am often guilty of it) should try to avoid.

    I make an exception for Trump. Fill your boots.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    Labour have the wrong priorities in not scrapping the shameful 2 child limit. Though there is an upside for Starmer in being so morally wrong in that he gets to sack a load of “why are these” Labour MPs who now get to sit in solidarity with magic grandpa on the back bench of the chamber.

    Labour know there isn't the money is provide every wishlist item that exists and removing the 2 child limit requires 3% added to NI to balance the books.

    Phrase it like that and see how many tax payers continue to support the idea...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,360
    Mr. Romford, over a hundred, I think, of the Rotherham victims were male. They tend to get ignored.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    edited July 2024
    .

    Suspect that Larry the Cat's account has been hacked. Hardly seemingly for a member of HMG to be engaging in a political cat fight beyond the realm.

    Trust Larry to maintain a dignified silence, However, IF J,D. Vance ever comes calling in Downing Street, expect the claws to be out. OR at very least a warning hiss.
    I don’t think you’re familiar with Larry the Cat’s Twitter (unofficial) account. It seems several people here aren’t. It is not a real account, Larry doesn’t actually tweet, the account was very critical of the last Government for years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820

    So America's Gordon Brown then.
    It's libellous to suggest that someone is a sexual abuser and fraudster.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    Romania arrested Andrew Tate. Which gives their justice system a gold star from me.
    And we jailed the #wholetruthfive for daring to tell the truth on climate change. Not even a bronze for us 😢
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811
    Chris said:

    Surely Vance's former anti-Trump views were already well known when Trump picked him?

    Yes, they were, but to a degree, that is part of the system. Kamala ran against Biden. Half a dozen colleagues will have stood against whoever will be the next Conservative leader.

    But with Vance there are said to be other issues. As I posted two days ago, Trump was already said to be showing buyer's remorse. For a start, Vance was probably selected to run against Joe Biden who is now out of the race. He does not balance the Republican ticket or deliver new states (and look at how this is said to be a consideration for Kamala's VP choice, and how eight years ago Mike Pence appealed to Evangelicals and Never-Trumpers). Then, Trump was said not to like Vance speaking as if he, Vance, were on top of the ticket and running to be President.

    And as you imply, perhaps Trump had not realised quite how anti-Trump Vance had been.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093
    Taz said:

    And we jailed the #wholetruthfive for daring to tell the truth on climate change. Not even a bronze for us 😢
    What 'truth' do you think they were telling? Preferably in their own words.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    Taz said:

    It’s not just here. As I posted yesterday the MSM seems to be losing its mind too. She is being treated as a celebrity rather than a politician. Sky news, BBC news, channel 4 news even ITV news are just treating her with a reverence they seem to reserve for the latest A list luvvie doing a press round promoting whatever dreary movie their plugging.

    One puff piece saying she’s perfectly suited to the presidency for dancing, badly, with some kids.

    Nothing on policy or possible policy positions or any of the challenges ahead.
    It's been that was ever since I can recall. And it's what makes a lot of people vote.

    Jimmy Carter (apart from the dancing), got quite similar coverage half a century back.
    Though most people remember him for losing to Reagan - also covered as a celebrity - four years later.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    DougSeal said:

    There are 220,000 people in Rochdale, more or less. Are you suggesting nearly half its population are survivors of this sexual abuse case or are you pulling figures out of your arse for effect, to inflame tensions yourself? I’m going to assume the latter.
    Not just Rochdale though. Up and down the country.

    This was the most recent one in Newcastle. There have been others up here. When the main perpetrator in this one was acquitted at a prior trial the BBC ran a puff piece on him at the time which allowed him to call the victim racist and play the victim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-68446855

    https://thecritic.co.uk/newsnight-and-the-rapist/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811
    Good morning, everyone. Welcome to National Starmer's first PMQs day.

    It will be less of a change for Rishi who often used to question Starmer as if it were LotoQs each Wednesday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    Sad.

    Kim Jong-un anticipates Donald Trump's reelection
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=379213
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,846
    Taz said:

    It’s not just here. As I posted yesterday the MSM seems to be losing its mind too. She is being treated as a celebrity rather than a politician. Sky news, BBC news, channel 4 news even ITV news are just treating her with a reverence they seem to reserve for the latest A list luvvie doing a press round promoting whatever dreary movie their plugging.

    One puff piece saying she’s perfectly suited to the presidency for dancing, badly, with some kids.


    Nothing on policy or possible policy positions or any of the challenges ahead.
    Her dancing was fine.

    As for vacuous celebrity Presidential candidates, Trump is the daddy. And why don't we mock Trump dancing?

    https://youtu.be/XXN8xxCxA5s?si=_w56k6ZZdVqbrbIn
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    That's how you do political insults.

    Buttigieg: Vance is a regrettable choice because he is somebody who was at his most convincing and effective when he talked about how unfit for office Trump is. And he is not explained any reason other than of course, his obvious interest in power, why he changed his mind
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1815918594661966049
  • DougSeal said:

    There are 220,000 people in Rochdale, more or less. Are you suggesting nearly half its population are survivors of this sexual abuse case or are you pulling figures out of your arse for effect, to inflame tensions yourself? I’m going to assume the latter.
    It was a rather wider matter than just Rochdale. KLF(JAM)s Its Grim Up North gives a reasonable list as I can't be bothered to.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    edited July 2024
    Taz said:

    Not just Rochdale though. Up and down the country.

    This was the most recent one in Newcastle. There have been others up here. When the main perpetrator in this one was acquitted at a prior trial the BBC ran a puff piece on him at the time which allowed him to call the victim racist and play the victim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-68446855

    https://thecritic.co.uk/newsnight-and-the-rapist/
    The offered figure of 100,000+ is nonsense. The Conservative government commissioned a report into grooming gangs. You can read it here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5fd87e348fa8f54d5733f532/Group-based_CSE_Paper.pdf
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478
    I see that Robert Peston is saying that the true scale of the mess the previous Government's left finances in will be revealed next week after Rachel Reeves asked Departments to report what areas of their spending weren't actually budgeted for.

    Seems the figure is £50bn but Robert doesn't say which bits are 1 off issues (RAAC schools, blood contamination payments...) and which ones are annual commitments.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,093

    Mr. Romford, over a hundred, I think, of the Rotherham victims were male. They tend to get ignored.

    That's a good point: and as I recall, the report said that was an underestimate as many male victims were understandably not keen to come forward.

    Also, many of the victims were Asian; again, the numbers are uncertain.

    This 'white girls in Rotherham' hides as much as it unveils. The truth is that several groups of (allegedly mainly) men from Asian cultures abused anyone they could, an not just sexually. And others in their 'culture' knew about, and ignored this, as did many in wider authority, And as ever, the cover-up made things worse.

    Another factor that is not talked about enough IMO is that people knew this was going on, and did not report it. After one of the official reports was released, the BBC interviewed a man from the area (I cannot remember if it was Rochdale or Rotherham), who said he had been offered young girls, but had rejected the offer. When asked why he had not reported it, he seemed to think it was an odd question.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049
    Cicero said:

    Come on, I didn´t vote for the guy, but one-to-one Brown is actually charming and no fool. He also has had his share of personal tragedies and cannot in any way be described as a braggart. Even Brown´s political opponents (me included) would regard Trump comparisons as a very cheap shot.
    Brown was a dud PM, and he certainly made some crass errors of judgment (coughEcclestonecough).

    But he wasn't mad, and he wasn't a criminal.

    And while his actions after the 2010 election were extremely misguided, they bear no comparison to Trump's efforts to stage an actual coup.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    What 'truth' do you think they were telling? Preferably in their own words.
    The problem is they weren't telling people anything - they were just blocking the M25...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651

    It was a rather wider matter than just Rochdale. KLF(JAM)s Its Grim Up North gives a reasonable list as I can't be bothered to.
    No - please do. An accusation of this magnitude needs at least a link. Unless you’re not telling the truth. Which I don’t think you are.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,049
    Nigelb said:

    That's how you do political insults.

    Buttigieg: Vance is a regrettable choice because he is somebody who was at his most convincing and effective when he talked about how unfit for office Trump is. And he is not explained any reason other than of course, his obvious interest in power, why he changed his mind
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1815918594661966049

    That reminded me of Osoff's withering of Perdue.

    Similar accent too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,389

    NEW THREAD

  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Taz said:

    And we jailed the #wholetruthfive for daring to tell the truth on climate change. Not even a bronze for us 😢
    What truth,did they tell? Link please.
  • That's a good point: and as I recall, the report said that was an underestimate as many male victims were understandably not keen to come forward.

    Also, many of the victims were Asian; again, the numbers are uncertain.

    This 'white girls in Rotherham' hides as much as it unveils. The truth is that several groups of (allegedly mainly) men from Asian cultures abused anyone they could, an not just sexually. And others in their 'culture' knew about, and ignored this, as did many in wider authority, And as ever, the cover-up made things worse.

    Another factor that is not talked about enough IMO is that people knew this was going on, and did not report it. After one of the official reports was released, the BBC interviewed a man from the area (I cannot remember if it was Rochdale or Rotherham), who said he had been offered young girls, but had rejected the offer. When asked why he had not reported it, he seemed to think it was an odd question.
    For much the same reason that no one reported it if you were sat in a pub in Belfast and someone got shot.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,378

    I'm getting a real "Everyone suddenly burst out singing" vibe which I have never had from politics before. Sort of thing the dimmer lefties apparently got from the smarmy murderous Blairfest of 1997.
    Partially but it also reminds me of the attempts to deify Gordon Brown in the summer of 2007.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    DougSeal said:

    No - please do. An accusation of this magnitude needs at least a link. Unless you’re not telling the truth. Which I don’t think you are.
    There are definitely more instances than just Rotherham. And the inaction by police and social services was disgraceful.

    But to get to the specific number being waved around, you need scandals as bad as Rotherham everywhere. In Reading and Richmond (both of them) and Royal Tunbridge Wells. And to say that is silly and to keep saying it is worse than silly.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    The offered figure of 100,000+ is nonsense. The Conservative government commissioned a report into grooming gangs. You can read it here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5fd87e348fa8f54d5733f532/Group-based_CSE_Paper.pdf
    I’m challenging the reference to Rochdale. I’ve said nothing about the 100,000
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,732

    That would be approximately every female.

    From memory of last time this came up, the maths is 1400 in Rotherham, and that's about one percent of the country, so the total nationwide is about 100000.

    Except it isn't, because that extrapolation doesn't work, for reasons that ought to be obvious to readers of a blog where we talk about polls all the time.

    1400 is 1400 too many, but it's curious that smart people continue to push such an obviously incorrect line.
    The 1400 figure comes from the Jay report, but that was also a projection based on reviewing 66 case files.

    To say there is not robust data is merely a fact. Misogyny and sexual abuse wasn't restricted to Rotherham of course, and we had a report just yesterday that 1 in 12 women are affected each year including 696,000 sexual assaults per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/23/violence-against-women-national-emergency-england-wales-police

    Systemic sexual abuse is quite widespread.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,378
    DougSeal said:

    No - please do. An accusation of this magnitude needs at least a link. Unless you’re not telling the truth. Which I don’t think you are.
    The number was a calculation by Alastair Meeks.

    Now if you don't agree with it perhaps you could give your own estimation.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921
    Taz said:

    O M G
    We are trying to tie him down even as we speak. I don't think the cables can take it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921
    eek said:

    Labour know there isn't the money is provide every wishlist item that exists and removing the 2 child limit requires 3% added to NI to balance the books.

    Phrase it like that and see how many tax payers continue to support the idea...
    You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs. We have run child-inhibition and child-unfriendly policies for many years and now have so few children we have to import Eastern Europeans to breed babies for us. Babies are good things not bad things.
This discussion has been closed.