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Will Trump dump J.D. Vance? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,188
edited August 4 in General
Will Trump dump J.D. Vance? – politicalbetting.com

In other another instance in 2016, Vance liked a tweet that said Trump committed “serial sexual assault.” “Maybe the Central Park 5 could take out a full-page ad to condemn the coddling of thug real estate barons who commit serial sexual assault.”https://t.co/UHuvisShh6

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,326
    Ab initio!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,832

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    I knew I should have risked the ranch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,557
    No as they were made nearly a decade ago and Vance is Trump's MAGA heir apparent
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,326
    Something weird is happening to this post in Vanilla @TSE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,307
    Has Trump ever acknowledged making a mistake, even when it would not matter? It's hard to see him backing down after picking Vance, though I suppose he could bully the guy into withdrawing as the running mate.

    But I wouldn't expect it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,557
    edited July 23

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,807
    Omnium said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    I knew I should have risked the ranch.
    Wait until the convention bounce she should receive, Trump could be trailing Harris by nearly 10%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,307

    Omnium said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    I knew I should have risked the ranch.
    Wait until the convention bounce she should receive, Trump could be trailing Harris by nearly 10%.
    Trump should be trailing anyone by nearly 10%, I won't hold my breath until I actually see it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,332
    Most of what I know of human evil comes from working with teenagers, but aren't Vance's previous remarks part of the attraction to Trump?

    "He said nasty things about me, mean things about me, but now he admits that I, the Donald, am the greatest..."

    Basically, there's nothing more alpha than getting your former critics to kneel before you.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,832

    Omnium said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    I knew I should have risked the ranch.
    Wait until the convention bounce she should receive, Trump could be trailing Harris by nearly 10%.
    Yeah - just as I'm retired now I feel a bit restrained betting in really big amounts. I've layed Trump in a waffer thin mint more though.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    FPT - AP reporting that all 19 delegates from Delaware have said they are voting for Kamala Harris at the 2024 Democratic National Convention.

    Personally salute the great Blue Hen State AND the delegation Delaware Democrats are sending to Chicago next month.

    Only those who have been in similar situation can really relate. Strong political supporters of your home state's favorite son in politics, someone you've been helping and voting for over the decades, and basking that he's finally made it all the way to the White House. And then . . .

    Being from a small state - just one Representative in US House - makes it worse. In part because state pride is amplified in smaller states, in part because the percentage of folks who have actually encountered Joe Biden, or some other favorite in another state, in person is sizable. Maybe at a political event or government setting, but even more likely at the grocery store or post office.

    Or down at the Delaware Shore.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,999
    edited July 23
    Betting post: I quite like the “will the election winner lose the popular vote?” - “No” bet at 1.65 on BFE. If Harris wins, she will surely win the popular vote, as the Dems usually do given the size of CA and NY. With insurance that if the Harris campaign bombs and Trump sweeps in, he could win the popular vote himself.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,807
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    I knew I should have risked the ranch.
    Wait until the convention bounce she should receive, Trump could be trailing Harris by nearly 10%.
    Yeah - just as I'm retired now I feel a bit restrained betting in really big amounts. I've layed Trump in a waffer thin mint more though.
    I understand, I am feeling a bit smug after laying Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom.

    It was squeaky bum time for a bit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,307

    Most of what I know of human evil comes from working with teenagers, but aren't Vance's previous remarks part of the attraction to Trump?

    "He said nasty things about me, mean things about me, but now he admits that I, the Donald, am the greatest..."

    Basically, there's nothing more alpha than getting your former critics to kneel before you.

    Indeed, there's no shortage of GOP figures who bent the knee, licked boot and, more than that, fully believe they were wrong to criticise the great man himself.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    That understates the change.

    With IPSOS we've gone from Trump 2% ahead v Biden (July 15th-16th) to Harris 2% ahead v Trump (July 22nd).

    So much for a Republican convention bounce.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Short answer to header question - No.

    Slightly longer answer - Trump is a double-downer (in more ways than one!) NOT a U-turner. Dumping JD Vance would seriously question his judgement in picking him in the first place. AND look like less like (another) display of courage, than a spasm of desperation.

    What's done is done - plus DJT will reckon that Mini-Me JDV will savage who(m)ever KH picks for VP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,871
    Fpt for @stocky asking my whereabouts in France

    - Yes I’m in l’Aveyron. Near Millau and near Lozere. A really empty and beautiful corner of France - it’s really far south so you get the cloudless skies and orange tiled villages - but sufficiently elevated that it’s not baking hot and nights are fresh

    And it’s…. Just empty. Can’t be many corners of Europe as beautiful as this (in summer, I imagine winters are brutal) which aren’t swarmed with tourists
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,557
    edited July 23
    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,999

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    That understates the change.

    With IPSOS we've gone from Trump 2% ahead v Biden (July 15th-16th) to Harris 2% ahead v Trump (July 22nd).

    So much for a Republican convention bounce.
    Well, the big picture is that tons of ordinary Americans have been screaming all year at the parties not to offer them the same two aged and unsuitable candidates, desperately wanting another option. Now one of the parties has stepped up to the plate, and Trumpy is looking rather exposed. If he hadn’t just been shot at, his fall might have been faster.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,871
    edited July 23
    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    That understates the change.

    With IPSOS we've gone from Trump 2% ahead v Biden (July 15th-16th) to Harris 2% ahead v Trump (July 22nd).

    So much for a Republican convention bounce.
    Biden very effectively squelched it. Brilliant timing of endgame IMHO; not too bad for a "demented vegetable".
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,832

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    I knew I should have risked the ranch.
    Wait until the convention bounce she should receive, Trump could be trailing Harris by nearly 10%.
    Yeah - just as I'm retired now I feel a bit restrained betting in really big amounts. I've layed Trump in a waffer thin mint more though.
    I understand, I am feeling a bit smug after laying Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom.

    It was squeaky bum time for a bit.
    It's so dull to have all your money tied up in really great bets opposing whoever, and it just sitting there. I've recently unburdened myself of quite a bit of exposure to Andy Burnham's chances as next Labour leader. I think I had 2k tied up at one point, and there are better opportunities for my money.
  • If Her Majesties Daily Telegraph is correct I will be taking early retirement before too long and moving from net contributor to net recipient, without a pdrticularly large diference in "Take Home" income (seeing as you dont pay NI or pension contributions on pension income).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/23/rachel-reeves-presented-plan-pension-tax-raid/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,392
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    I think you are heading for a huge disappointment as Harris 'Trumps' Trump

    Indeed the old saying a 'week is a long time in politics' and 'events' have merged to change the narrative very much in favour of Harris
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,955
    If Biden had dropped out last year, Haley might have had a better chance of winning the nomination.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,654
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    Unlike you, we’re happy to wait a couple of days.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,807
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    I knew I should have risked the ranch.
    Wait until the convention bounce she should receive, Trump could be trailing Harris by nearly 10%.
    Yeah - just as I'm retired now I feel a bit restrained betting in really big amounts. I've layed Trump in a waffer thin mint more though.
    I understand, I am feeling a bit smug after laying Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom.

    It was squeaky bum time for a bit.
    It's so dull to have all your money tied up in really great bets opposing whoever, and it just sitting there. I've recently unburdened myself of quite a bit of exposure to Andy Burnham's chances as next Labour leader. I think I had 2k tied up at one point, and there are better opportunities for my money.
    I get that.

    When interest rates were like 1% for nearly a decade some of these long term bets made sense.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,807
    I just wanted to get 'Trump dump' in a PB headline.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,495
    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    I knew I should have risked the ranch.
    Wait until the convention bounce she should receive, Trump could be trailing Harris by nearly 10%.
    Trump should be trailing anyone by nearly 10%, I won't hold my breath until I actually see it.
    Trump should be trailing anyone and anything except possibly the corpse of Mao Zedong by 100%.

    That he isn't is in a sense rather more worrying than the fairly unlikely possibility of him winning. It shows how fragile the American polity has become.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,807

    If Her Majesties Daily Telegraph is correct I will be taking early retirement before too long and moving from net contributor to net recipient, without a pdrticularly large diference in "Take Home" income (seeing as you dont pay NI or pension contributions on pension income).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/23/rachel-reeves-presented-plan-pension-tax-raid/

    'Her Majesties'

    I mean where do we even start with that?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,832

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    I knew I should have risked the ranch.
    Wait until the convention bounce she should receive, Trump could be trailing Harris by nearly 10%.
    Yeah - just as I'm retired now I feel a bit restrained betting in really big amounts. I've layed Trump in a waffer thin mint more though.
    I understand, I am feeling a bit smug after laying Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom.

    It was squeaky bum time for a bit.
    It's so dull to have all your money tied up in really great bets opposing whoever, and it just sitting there. I've recently unburdened myself of quite a bit of exposure to Andy Burnham's chances as next Labour leader. I think I had 2k tied up at one point, and there are better opportunities for my money.
    I get that.

    When interest rates were like 1% for nearly a decade some of these long term bets made sense.
    Yes. And sense or not they are fun - I completely love these long term political bets. However if you have big sums tied up now you have to question how much fun you're getting.
  • Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    There is bound to be a Harris "honeymoon" period for a while before normal service resumes in the US (it won't stop three months of breathless puffing of her here as the only thing between the world and Hitler 2.0 though).

    Whoever persuaded Biden to debate Trump on live TV *before* the final nominations were in was a genius though.
  • Leon said:

    Fpt for @stocky asking my whereabouts in France

    - Yes I’m in l’Aveyron. Near Millau and near Lozere. A really empty and beautiful corner of France - it’s really far south so you get the cloudless skies and orange tiled villages - but sufficiently elevated that it’s not baking hot and nights are fresh

    And it’s…. Just empty. Can’t be many corners of Europe as beautiful as this (in summer, I imagine winters are brutal) which aren’t swarmed with tourists

    If you are looking to blag your way into some serious noom - see if you can use your journo bona fides to wangle yourself a visit here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruniquel_Cave - it's not open to the public, but is a cool 18 x older than Göbekli Tepe. It's about 2 hours away from you. Looks to me like a (pre 2000s) Doctor Who set - or something from Quatermass.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,654
    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    It’s subject to all manner of uncertainty, but my sense is that it’s Harris’s to lose.
    If she can come up with a way to blunt the border issue - which given the GOP rejected legislation which would have done something to address it a year ahead of the election, is far from impossible - then Trump is toast.

    Not plain sailing, of course.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,495
    edited July 23

    I just wanted to get 'Trump dump' in a PB headline.

    Hasn't he already had a shit in a lift?


  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,871

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    That understates the change.

    With IPSOS we've gone from Trump 2% ahead v Biden (July 15th-16th) to Harris 2% ahead v Trump (July 22nd).

    So much for a Republican convention bounce.
    Biden very effectively squelched it. Brilliant timing of endgame IMHO; not too bad for a "demented vegetable".
    lol. This is not Biden’s doing. A day before he quit him and his team were strident and defiant

    Then Pelosi came over, after a bottle of vodka, with Skevington’s Gyves
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,307
    edited July 23
    Yes, I'm sure the one time you did it it was caught on camera, how very unlucky indeed. I'm sure Will Smith has never physically assaulted anyone in a rage either, apart from the one time he did so in public, people who beat horses or people only ever do so once.

    Charlotte Dujardin, Britain's joint-most decorated female Olympian, has been provisionally suspended for six months by equestrian's governing body the FEI.

    A lawyer representing the claimant who filed an official complaint against Dujardin to the FEI said in an accompanying letter seen by the BBC "the video shows Ms Dujardin beating a horse excessively with a whip".

    "What happened was completely out of character and does not reflect how I train my horses or coach my pupils, however there is no excuse," she said in statement.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/equestrian/articles/cd16ll5z086o
  • If Her Majesties Daily Telegraph is correct I will be taking early retirement before too long and moving from net contributor to net recipient, without a pdrticularly large diference in "Take Home" income (seeing as you dont pay NI or pension contributions on pension income).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/23/rachel-reeves-presented-plan-pension-tax-raid/

    'Her Majesties'

    I mean where do we even start with that?
    Using apostrophies on mobile phone keypads is against my religion.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,419
    So Vance used to be a good guy then?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,757
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @stocky asking my whereabouts in France

    - Yes I’m in l’Aveyron. Near Millau and near Lozere. A really empty and beautiful corner of France - it’s really far south so you get the cloudless skies and orange tiled villages - but sufficiently elevated that it’s not baking hot and nights are fresh

    And it’s…. Just empty. Can’t be many corners of Europe as beautiful as this (in summer, I imagine winters are brutal) which aren’t swarmed with tourists

    If you’re near Millau, go and take a look at the big bridge from underneath. It’s so much bigger than you ever thought it could be.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Viaduc-Millau_Pile-P2_Eiffel.svg
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    How long before Trump finds a way to dump Vance ?

    The Dems need to put Mark Kelly hero astronaut , devoted husband for Gabby Gifford’s and a generally really nice guy up against Vance who wants to ban abortion and thinks childless woman are second class citizens .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,495
    kle4 said:

    Yes, I'm sure the one time you did it it was caught on camera, how very unlucky indeed. I'm sure Will Smith has never physically assaulted anyone in a rage either, apart from the one time he did so in public, people who beat horses or people only every do so once.

    Charlotte Dujardin, Britain's joint-most decorated female Olympian, has been provisionally suspended for six months by equestrian's governing body the FEI.

    A lawyer representing the claimant who filed an official complaint against Dujardin to the FEI said in an accompanying letter seen by the BBC "the video shows Ms Dujardin beating a horse excessively with a whip".

    "What happened was completely out of character and does not reflect how I train my horses or coach my pupils, however there is no excuse," she said in statement.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/equestrian/articles/cd16ll5z086o

    Oh gosh.

    You're now going to set Leon off about the weird pleasures of people who live in Newent.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 23
    Photo of the Day.

    Antirhinnum feast at Heligan.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,871
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    It’s subject to all manner of uncertainty, but my sense is that it’s Harris’s to lose.
    If she can come up with a way to blunt the border issue - which given the GOP rejected legislation which would have done something to address it a year ahead of the election, is far from impossible - then Trump is toast.

    Not plain sailing, of course.
    I’d make her a 55/45 favourite

    A few possible problems

    1. She turns out to be an awful campaigner

    2. The Trump sassytempt turns out to be more conspiratorial than is assumed

    3. Biden is still there. Still President. And will be - dementedly - all the way to January. I think this is her biggest problem


    Against that, at least 40% of likely voters absolutely loathe Trump and would vote for Pol Pot if he was the only alternative to the Donald. And that *should* see her over the line
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,654
    A fun betting market would be to see if Trump replaces J.D. Vance before the election.

    I’ve been asking about this.
    Do it, Betfair, please.

    Problem for Trump would be with whom ?

    Please don’t say Doug Burgum, anybody.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,307
    Nigelb said:

    A fun betting market would be to see if Trump replaces J.D. Vance before the election.

    I’ve been asking about this.
    Do it, Betfair, please.

    Problem for Trump would be with whom ?

    Please don’t say Doug Burgum, anybody.

    MTG! MTG!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Leon said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    That understates the change.

    With IPSOS we've gone from Trump 2% ahead v Biden (July 15th-16th) to Harris 2% ahead v Trump (July 22nd).

    So much for a Republican convention bounce.
    Biden very effectively squelched it. Brilliant timing of endgame IMHO; not too bad for a "demented vegetable".
    lol. This is not Biden’s doing. A day before he quit him and his team were strident and defiant

    Then Pelosi came over, after a bottle of vodka, with Skevington’s Gyves
    Regardless the timing was perfect. The GOP are throwing their toys of the pram and Trumps moronic decision to pick Vance who will go down like a cup of sick with suburban women .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,419

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    That understates the change.

    With IPSOS we've gone from Trump 2% ahead v Biden (July 15th-16th) to Harris 2% ahead v Trump (July 22nd).

    So much for a Republican convention bounce.
    Biden very effectively squelched it. Brilliant timing of endgame IMHO; not too bad for a "demented vegetable".
    I thought that RNC would turn off moderates in droves. It felt unhinged.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,871
    edited July 23

    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    There is bound to be a Harris "honeymoon" period for a while before normal service resumes in the US (it won't stop three months of breathless puffing of her here as the only thing between the world and Hitler 2.0 though).

    Whoever persuaded Biden to debate Trump on live TV *before* the final nominations were in was a genius though.
    Absolutely. I am sure this was an inside job - someone on Biden’s team has known for ages he’s demented and incapable and this person was in despair - then had the brilliant idea of putting him up for an early debate

    They sabotaged and terminated their own king
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,788
    I don't think Harris is particularly Woke, interestingly. That's why she annoys a lot of leftists. But it could certainly help her win the election.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NYT - Robert Menendez Will Resign From Senate After Corruption Conviction

    The New Jersey senator said he would step down in late August, bowing to intense pressure from Democratic colleagues.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    There is bound to be a Harris "honeymoon" period for a while before normal service resumes in the US (it won't stop three months of breathless puffing of her here as the only thing between the world and Hitler 2.0 though).

    Whoever persuaded Biden to debate Trump on live TV *before* the final nominations were in was a genius though.
    Absolutely. I am sure this was an inside job - someone on Biden’s team has known for ages he’s demented and incapable and this person was in despair - then had the brilliant idea of putting him up for an early debate

    They sabotaged and terminated their own king
    Interesting . Certainly without the debate from hell the Dems would still be in denial and it would have been far too late after the inevitable debate horror show in September.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,654
    kinabalu said:

    So Vance used to be a good guy then?

    2016 Vance is very different to 2024 Vance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,871
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @stocky asking my whereabouts in France

    - Yes I’m in l’Aveyron. Near Millau and near Lozere. A really empty and beautiful corner of France - it’s really far south so you get the cloudless skies and orange tiled villages - but sufficiently elevated that it’s not baking hot and nights are fresh

    And it’s…. Just empty. Can’t be many corners of Europe as beautiful as this (in summer, I imagine winters are brutal) which aren’t swarmed with tourists

    If you’re near Millau, go and take a look at the big bridge from underneath. It’s so much bigger than you ever thought it could be.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Viaduc-Millau_Pile-P2_Eiffel.svg
    We just did our shopping in the Leclerc hypermarche right underneath it
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,788

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Someone predicted this a few hours ago. Can't remember who it was.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    I just wanted to get 'Trump dump' in a PB headline.

    Be sure to mention in your posting text, that the late Dr. Hunter S. Thompson use to refer to his own excretions, as "taking a Nixon".
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,523
    ydoethur said:

    I just wanted to get 'Trump dump' in a PB headline.

    Hasn't he already had a shit in a lift?


    Looks like a publicity shot from a really tragic IFA conference. Shysters on a jolly paid for by a shit fund, bugger the clients.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,307

    NYT - Robert Menendez Will Resign From Senate After Corruption Conviction

    The New Jersey senator said he would step down in late August, bowing to intense pressure from Democratic colleagues.

    A helpful reminder some wrong 'uns are Democrats.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,307
    edited July 23
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    There is bound to be a Harris "honeymoon" period for a while before normal service resumes in the US (it won't stop three months of breathless puffing of her here as the only thing between the world and Hitler 2.0 though).

    Whoever persuaded Biden to debate Trump on live TV *before* the final nominations were in was a genius though.
    Absolutely. I am sure this was an inside job - someone on Biden’s team has known for ages he’s demented and incapable and this person was in despair - then had the brilliant idea of putting him up for an early debate

    They sabotaged and terminated their own king
    If this turns out to be true that person may - may - have performed one hell of a service.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,523

    NYT - Robert Menendez Will Resign From Senate After Corruption Conviction

    The New Jersey senator said he would step down in late August, bowing to intense pressure from Democratic colleagues.

    Are you still seeing much chatter and coverage about the Trump ear bashing or has it all been overtaken by the Biden/Harris switcheroo in the US media?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kle4 said:

    NYT - Robert Menendez Will Resign From Senate After Corruption Conviction

    The New Jersey senator said he would step down in late August, bowing to intense pressure from Democratic colleagues.

    A helpful reminder some wrong 'uns are Democrats.
    And that us Democrats are pitching OUR garbage off the poop deck . . . NOT piling it up on the bridge . . .
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Vance used to be a good guy then?

    2016 Vance is very different to 2024 Vance.
    Another GOP never Trumper who suddenly decided he was marvelous.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,654

    If Biden had dropped out last year, Haley might have had a better chance of winning the nomination.

    I doubt it.
    Had Trump dropped out, certainly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,788
    edited July 23
    It's not impossible the Trump/Vance campaign will implode completely, because they really weren't expecting Biden to pull out. They don't know how to cope with the situation.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,871
    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    There is bound to be a Harris "honeymoon" period for a while before normal service resumes in the US (it won't stop three months of breathless puffing of her here as the only thing between the world and Hitler 2.0 though).

    Whoever persuaded Biden to debate Trump on live TV *before* the final nominations were in was a genius though.
    Absolutely. I am sure this was an inside job - someone on Biden’s team has known for ages he’s demented and incapable and this person was in despair - then had the brilliant idea of putting him up for an early debate

    They sabotaged and terminated their own king
    Interesting . Certainly without the debate from hell the Dems would still be in denial and it would have been far too late after the inevitable debate horror show in September.
    I can’t see any other explanation. Biden is demented. If you’re in his team you would know this. You would also know he’s so mad he is - was - determined to stand again and lose - calamitously - to Trump

    What’s the patriotic option? Fuck Biden. Persuade him to make a career ending mistake
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,654
    Leon said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    That understates the change.

    With IPSOS we've gone from Trump 2% ahead v Biden (July 15th-16th) to Harris 2% ahead v Trump (July 22nd).

    So much for a Republican convention bounce.
    Biden very effectively squelched it. Brilliant timing of endgame IMHO; not too bad for a "demented vegetable".
    lol. This is not Biden’s doing. A day before he quit him and his team were strident and defiant

    Then Pelosi came over, after a bottle of vodka, with Skevington’s Gyves
    Someone showed him some proper polls.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,419
    nico679 said:

    How long before Trump finds a way to dump Vance ?

    The Dems need to put Mark Kelly hero astronaut , devoted husband for Gabby Gifford’s and a generally really nice guy up against Vance who wants to ban abortion and thinks childless woman are second class citizens .

    No, he should stay. He encapsulates perfectly the essential mean-spiritedness of the MAGA owned GOP. So put it to the voters. Give them that choice.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,358
    edited July 23
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    There is bound to be a Harris "honeymoon" period for a while before normal service resumes in the US (it won't stop three months of breathless puffing of her here as the only thing between the world and Hitler 2.0 though).

    Whoever persuaded Biden to debate Trump on live TV *before* the final nominations were in was a genius though.
    Absolutely. I am sure this was an inside job - someone on Biden’s team has known for ages he’s demented and incapable and this person was in despair - then had the brilliant idea of putting him up for an early debate

    They sabotaged and terminated their own king
    If you want to go full tin foil hat and it was an inside job, maybe somebody swapped his meds out....we have never seen Biden be that bad publicly. For 45 mins he stood there totally zombified and when he did answer, it was the wrong question..it was like Boris post his brush with death, those press conferences he was forgetting names etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,557
    Andy_JS said:

    It's not impossible the Trump/Vance campaign will implode completely, because they really weren't expecting Biden to pull out. They don't know how to cope with the situation.

    Beat Harris the same way they beat Hillary in 2016, portray her as an elitist coastal liberal out of touch with Middle America and the swing states Biden beat Trump in in 2020
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,757
    Okay, Biden is alive!

    https://x.com/karluskap/status/1815806042384609767

    He’s on the plane from Delaware to Washington.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,871

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    There is bound to be a Harris "honeymoon" period for a while before normal service resumes in the US (it won't stop three months of breathless puffing of her here as the only thing between the world and Hitler 2.0 though).

    Whoever persuaded Biden to debate Trump on live TV *before* the final nominations were in was a genius though.
    Absolutely. I am sure this was an inside job - someone on Biden’s team has known for ages he’s demented and incapable and this person was in despair - then had the brilliant idea of putting him up for an early debate

    They sabotaged and terminated their own king
    If you want to go full tin foil hat and it was an inside job, swap his meds out....we have never seen Biden be that bad publicly.
    Excellent plot twist

    Also I don’t think you need a tin foil hat to perceive this election as being as sinister and dangerous as all fuckettybollocks. Trump is only alive because he turned his head for a moment in an unexpected way, and the security around him was so bad it’s forced the retirement of the seekyserv director
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,752
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't think Harris is particularly Woke, interestingly. That's why she annoys a lot of leftists. But it could certainly help her win the election.

    At least she doesn't take the knee, unlike SKir
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11648811/Awkward-moment-Kamala-refuses-kneel-Biden-photo-op.html

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,557

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    I think you are heading for a huge disappointment as Harris 'Trumps' Trump

    Indeed the old saying a 'week is a long time in politics' and 'events' have merged to change the narrative very much in favour of Harris
    RCP has Trump currently on 48.8% on average, ahead of Harris on 46.6%
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 697
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @stocky asking my whereabouts in France

    - Yes I’m in l’Aveyron. Near Millau and near Lozere. A really empty and beautiful corner of France - it’s really far south so you get the cloudless skies and orange tiled villages - but sufficiently elevated that it’s not baking hot and nights are fresh

    And it’s…. Just empty. Can’t be many corners of Europe as beautiful as this (in summer, I imagine winters are brutal) which aren’t swarmed with tourists

    If you’re near Millau, go and take a look at the big bridge from underneath. It’s so much bigger than you ever thought it could be.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Viaduc-Millau_Pile-P2_Eiffel.svg
    We just did our shopping in the Leclerc hypermarche right underneath it
    When French President Chirac opened it in 2004, he praised it as a wonderful tribute to French design even though Sir Norman Foster was the archiect. Mention Sir Norman to most people in Britain and they would probably say: "Didn't he design the wobbly bridge?" The French talk up their achievements whereas Brits tend to belittle them.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    A fun betting market would be to see if Trump replaces J.D. Vance before the election.

    I’ve been asking about this.
    Do it, Betfair, please.

    Problem for Trump would be with whom ?

    Please don’t say Doug Burgum, anybody.

    Like the insurgent agrarians of the Peoples Party, Bull Moose and Non-Partisan League, Fighting Doug Burgum would light a prairie fire for Trump at least halfway from Bismarck to Minot. (Rhymes with "why not?")
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,358
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    There is bound to be a Harris "honeymoon" period for a while before normal service resumes in the US (it won't stop three months of breathless puffing of her here as the only thing between the world and Hitler 2.0 though).

    Whoever persuaded Biden to debate Trump on live TV *before* the final nominations were in was a genius though.
    Absolutely. I am sure this was an inside job - someone on Biden’s team has known for ages he’s demented and incapable and this person was in despair - then had the brilliant idea of putting him up for an early debate

    They sabotaged and terminated their own king
    If you want to go full tin foil hat and it was an inside job, swap his meds out....we have never seen Biden be that bad publicly.
    Excellent plot twist

    Also I don’t think you need a tin foil hat to perceive this election as being as sinister and dangerous as all fuckettybollocks. Trump is only alive because he turned his head for a moment in an unexpected way, and the security around him was so bad it’s forced the retirement of the seekyserv director
    House of Cards new season is the best one yet.....
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,332
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    There is bound to be a Harris "honeymoon" period for a while before normal service resumes in the US (it won't stop three months of breathless puffing of her here as the only thing between the world and Hitler 2.0 though).

    Whoever persuaded Biden to debate Trump on live TV *before* the final nominations were in was a genius though.
    Absolutely. I am sure this was an inside job - someone on Biden’s team has known for ages he’s demented and incapable and this person was in despair - then had the brilliant idea of putting him up for an early debate

    They sabotaged and terminated their own king
    Or, if you really want pulp fiction...

    Biden has been sufficiently behind for a while. Partly the Afghan evacuation fiasco, partly governments are unpopular everywhere.

    But how could he walk without admitting failure and handing the election to his enemy? Walking makes him a loser. Being forced to leave by age and sickness, even in a messy "I don't want to go" way, makes him a hero. Assassination would have been even better for his reputation, but also going too far.

    To be clear, I don't believe a word of this. But if I were writing the novelisation, it's a tempting line to take. (What I actually believe is that age is now catching up with him, but only really in the last couple of months. When he is in control of his diary, and can just delegate a load of stuff, it's not an issue. But he's not up to the full-on exposure of campaigning.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,106
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    I think you are heading for a huge disappointment as Harris 'Trumps' Trump

    Indeed the old saying a 'week is a long time in politics' and 'events' have merged to change the narrative very much in favour of Harris
    RCP has Trump currently on 48.8% on average, ahead of Harris on 46.6%
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    Based on a date range of 5 to 22 July.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,523
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's not impossible the Trump/Vance campaign will implode completely, because they really weren't expecting Biden to pull out. They don't know how to cope with the situation.

    Beat Harris the same way they beat Hillary in 2016, portray her as an elitist coastal liberal out of touch with Middle America and the swing states Biden beat Trump in in 2020
    Beat Trump by portraying him as an elitist coastal liberal who donated to Harris’ campaigns in the past, New York Billionaire who was a big party boy at Studio54, he’s a Hollywood man loving his role in Home Alone 2, he’s living in a $250m dollar compound in Florida (its worth that isn’t it?).

    Someone needs to point out his cynicism that he was part of society, the 1%.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,628
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    I think you are heading for a huge disappointment as Harris 'Trumps' Trump

    Indeed the old saying a 'week is a long time in politics' and 'events' have merged to change the narrative very much in favour of Harris
    RCP has Trump currently on 48.8% on average, ahead of Harris on 46.6%
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    OK. Are only allowed to consider those polls favourable to Trump?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Andy_JS said:

    It's not impossible the Trump/Vance campaign will implode completely, because they really weren't expecting Biden to pull out. They don't know how to cope with the situation.

    Trump thought that no one could ever give up power voluntarily. Because he certainly would never do that .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,557
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't think Harris is particularly Woke, interestingly. That's why she annoys a lot of leftists. But it could certainly help her win the election.

    'Woke video resurfaces of Kamala Harris introducing her pronouns and explaining she is 'a woman in a blue suit'
    https://www.gbnews.com/news/us/watch-video-woke-kamala-harris-pronouns


    Kamala Harris Says Slavery Led to Untreated 'Physiological Outcomes,' Supports Reparations as Mental Health Issue
    https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-slavery-untreated-physiological-outcomes-mental-health-1362870
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,906
    Andy_JS said:

    It's not impossible the Trump/Vance campaign will implode completely, because they really weren't expecting Biden to pull out. They don't know how to cope with the situation.

    Vote Republican and Vance will be just a heartbeat away from being President, and that heart will be 82 by the time the term is up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,654
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I wouldn’t trust any of these polls - the ones good for Harris OR the polls good for Trump - because this is such an unprecedented moment in US politics

    In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away

    How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think

    My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop

    It’s subject to all manner of uncertainty, but my sense is that it’s Harris’s to lose.
    If she can come up with a way to blunt the border issue - which given the GOP rejected legislation which would have done something to address it a year ahead of the election, is far from impossible - then Trump is toast.

    Not plain sailing, of course.
    I’d make her a 55/45 favourite

    A few possible problems

    1. She turns out to be an awful campaigner

    2. The Trump sassytempt turns out to be more conspiratorial than is assumed

    3. Biden is still there. Still President. And will be - dementedly - all the way to January. I think this is her biggest problem


    Against that, at least 40% of likely voters absolutely loathe Trump and would vote for Pol Pot if he was the only alternative to the Donald. And that *should* see her over the line
    I was buying last night at 3 on Betfair.
    I’d take a little bit off the table at evens.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,557
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    I think you are heading for a huge disappointment as Harris 'Trumps' Trump

    Indeed the old saying a 'week is a long time in politics' and 'events' have merged to change the narrative very much in favour of Harris
    RCP has Trump currently on 48.8% on average, ahead of Harris on 46.6%
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    Based on a date range of 5 to 22 July.
    Morning Consult was taken Sunday and Monday and has Trump 2% ahead

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,358
    edited July 23
    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's not impossible the Trump/Vance campaign will implode completely, because they really weren't expecting Biden to pull out. They don't know how to cope with the situation.

    Beat Harris the same way they beat Hillary in 2016, portray her as an elitist coastal liberal out of touch with Middle America and the swing states Biden beat Trump in in 2020
    Beat Trump by portraying him as an elitist coastal liberal who donated to Harris’ campaigns in the past, New York Billionaire who was a big party boy at Studio54, he’s a Hollywood man loving his role in Home Alone 2, he’s living in a $250m dollar compound in Florida (its worth that isn’t it?).

    Someone needs to point out his cynicism that he was part of society, the 1%.

    Trump rather defused that one before when Clinton tried that line. Chapelle has a very funny bit on it. He has crafted this image of having seen that world he is fighting to drain the swamp. Its bollocks, but now the state are taking to court, he can double down on it, he is now the outsider fighting the powerful.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,871
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    I think you are heading for a huge disappointment as Harris 'Trumps' Trump

    Indeed the old saying a 'week is a long time in politics' and 'events' have merged to change the narrative very much in favour of Harris
    RCP has Trump currently on 48.8% on average, ahead of Harris on 46.6%
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    Your assessment of this election must be seen in the light of your conviction, a month back, that Trump WANTED to face Harris rather than Biden

    Which we can now see was total nonsense, as was pointed out to you then. Sorry
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,557

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    I think you are heading for a huge disappointment as Harris 'Trumps' Trump

    Indeed the old saying a 'week is a long time in politics' and 'events' have merged to change the narrative very much in favour of Harris
    RCP has Trump currently on 48.8% on average, ahead of Harris on 46.6%
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    OK. Are only allowed to consider those polls favourable to Trump?
    On average
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,106
    SandraMc said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @stocky asking my whereabouts in France

    - Yes I’m in l’Aveyron. Near Millau and near Lozere. A really empty and beautiful corner of France - it’s really far south so you get the cloudless skies and orange tiled villages - but sufficiently elevated that it’s not baking hot and nights are fresh

    And it’s…. Just empty. Can’t be many corners of Europe as beautiful as this (in summer, I imagine winters are brutal) which aren’t swarmed with tourists

    If you’re near Millau, go and take a look at the big bridge from underneath. It’s so much bigger than you ever thought it could be.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Viaduc-Millau_Pile-P2_Eiffel.svg
    We just did our shopping in the Leclerc hypermarche right underneath it
    When French President Chirac opened it in 2004, he praised it as a wonderful tribute to French design even though Sir Norman Foster was the archiect. Mention Sir Norman to most people in Britain and they would probably say: "Didn't he design the wobbly bridge?" The French talk up their achievements whereas Brits tend to belittle them.
    OTOH it tends to be the architects who get all the media cringing hysteria at the expense of the engineers.

    At least IKB did both the engineering and the detail design and pretty frills.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,307
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't think Harris is particularly Woke, interestingly. That's why she annoys a lot of leftists. But it could certainly help her win the election.

    'Woke video resurfaces of Kamala Harris introducing her pronouns and explaining she is 'a woman in a blue suit'
    https://www.gbnews.com/news/us/watch-video-woke-kamala-harris-pronouns


    Kamala Harris Says Slavery Led to Untreated 'Physiological Outcomes,' Supports Reparations as Mental Health Issue
    https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-slavery-untreated-physiological-outcomes-mental-health-1362870
    Those two stories are not even slightly similar.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,106
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    I think you are heading for a huge disappointment as Harris 'Trumps' Trump

    Indeed the old saying a 'week is a long time in politics' and 'events' have merged to change the narrative very much in favour of Harris
    RCP has Trump currently on 48.8% on average, ahead of Harris on 46.6%
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    OK. Are only allowed to consider those polls favourable to Trump?
    On average
    Most of which is *before* Pres. Biden pulled out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,557
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OOOOOOH

    #New @Reuters Poll

    🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22


    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786

    Albeit IPSOS is one of the most favourable pollsters for Harris with Trump much lower than other polls and who had her on 44% in their last poll too (plus a 2% lead for her is no more than Hillary had over Trump in 2016 when he won the EC)
    IPSOS is the only pollster who has had Trump under 45% in a 2 way with Harris rather than a 5 way. So while encouraging for Harris supporters she has taken the lead over Trump in one poll it is with the worst pollster for Trump

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    I think you are heading for a huge disappointment as Harris 'Trumps' Trump

    Indeed the old saying a 'week is a long time in politics' and 'events' have merged to change the narrative very much in favour of Harris
    RCP has Trump currently on 48.8% on average, ahead of Harris on 46.6%
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    Your assessment of this election must be seen in the light of your conviction, a month back, that Trump WANTED to face Harris rather than Biden

    Which we can now see was total nonsense, as was pointed out to you then. Sorry
    In the rustbelt it wasn't
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    If Her Majesties Daily Telegraph is correct I will be taking early retirement before too long and moving from net contributor to net recipient, without a pdrticularly large diference in "Take Home" income (seeing as you dont pay NI or pension contributions on pension income).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/23/rachel-reeves-presented-plan-pension-tax-raid/

    Wot? If you pay higher rate tax and retire early what do you become a recipient of?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, Biden is alive!

    https://x.com/karluskap/status/1815806042384609767

    He’s on the plane from Delaware to Washington.

    The bilge pumped out over THREE posts by yesterday's Putin-Bot, before it was summarily terminated, was ridiculously self defeating. Seeing as how even flat-earthers who believe the Moon landings were faked, are gonna cotton on that the allegedly late Joe Biden is still tripping (sometimes literally) around.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,622

    If Her Majesties Daily Telegraph is correct I will be taking early retirement before too long and moving from net contributor to net recipient, without a pdrticularly large diference in "Take Home" income (seeing as you dont pay NI or pension contributions on pension income).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/23/rachel-reeves-presented-plan-pension-tax-raid/

    'Her Majesties'

    I mean where do we even start with that?
    So good they named her twice?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's not impossible the Trump/Vance campaign will implode completely, because they really weren't expecting Biden to pull out. They don't know how to cope with the situation.

    Vote Republican and Vance will be just a heartbeat away from being President, and that heart will be 82 by the time the term is up.
    And with Vance in charge a national abortion ban could be coming . The Dems should hammer this point.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, Biden is alive!

    https://x.com/karluskap/status/1815806042384609767

    He’s on the plane from Delaware to Washington.

    The bilge pumped out over THREE posts by yesterday's Putin-Bot, before it was summarily terminated, was ridiculously self defeating. Seeing as how even flat-earthers who believe the Moon landings were faked, are gonna cotton on that the allegedly late Joe Biden is still tripping (sometimes literally) around.
    Body double, next?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,358
    edited July 23
    Government's should be doing everything to encourage funding your pension, instead they always see it as an easy target for taking more money. Its the right thing for the individual and the country long term.
This discussion has been closed.