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Will Trump dump J.D. Vance? – politicalbetting.com
Will Trump dump J.D. Vance? – politicalbetting.com
In other another instance in 2016, Vance liked a tweet that said Trump committed “serial sexual assault.” “Maybe the Central Park 5 could take out a full-page ad to condemn the coddling of thug real estate barons who commit serial sexual assault.”https://t.co/UHuvisShh6
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#New @Reuters Poll
🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
🔴 Trump 42%
IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815803619221950786
But I wouldn't expect it.
"He said nasty things about me, mean things about me, but now he admits that I, the Donald, am the greatest..."
Basically, there's nothing more alpha than getting your former critics to kneel before you.
Personally salute the great Blue Hen State AND the delegation Delaware Democrats are sending to Chicago next month.
Only those who have been in similar situation can really relate. Strong political supporters of your home state's favorite son in politics, someone you've been helping and voting for over the decades, and basking that he's finally made it all the way to the White House. And then . . .
Being from a small state - just one Representative in US House - makes it worse. In part because state pride is amplified in smaller states, in part because the percentage of folks who have actually encountered Joe Biden, or some other favorite in another state, in person is sizable. Maybe at a political event or government setting, but even more likely at the grocery store or post office.
Or down at the Delaware Shore.
It was squeaky bum time for a bit.
With IPSOS we've gone from Trump 2% ahead v Biden (July 15th-16th) to Harris 2% ahead v Trump (July 22nd).
So much for a Republican convention bounce.
Slightly longer answer - Trump is a double-downer (in more ways than one!) NOT a U-turner. Dumping JD Vance would seriously question his judgement in picking him in the first place. AND look like less like (another) display of courage, than a spasm of desperation.
What's done is done - plus DJT will reckon that Mini-Me JDV will savage who(m)ever KH picks for VP.
- Yes I’m in l’Aveyron. Near Millau and near Lozere. A really empty and beautiful corner of France - it’s really far south so you get the cloudless skies and orange tiled villages - but sufficiently elevated that it’s not baking hot and nights are fresh
And it’s…. Just empty. Can’t be many corners of Europe as beautiful as this (in summer, I imagine winters are brutal) which aren’t swarmed with tourists
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
In the last month a President has revealed his crippling dementia in an epochal debate, his rival has very very nearly been killed, the President (after much gruelling denial) has “resigned” and now his unpopular VP is abruptly mega famous and the new nominee for an election only months away
How can you possibly poll that?? I imagine many - most? - Americans have no idea what to think
My hunch is that Harris should be slight favourite (whereas Trump was a massive fave over Biden). But this crazy election year produces nothing but intense surprises and I’m not sure why that should stop
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/23/rachel-reeves-presented-plan-pension-tax-raid/
Indeed the old saying a 'week is a long time in politics' and 'events' have merged to change the narrative very much in favour of Harris
When interest rates were like 1% for nearly a decade some of these long term bets made sense.
That he isn't is in a sense rather more worrying than the fairly unlikely possibility of him winning. It shows how fragile the American polity has become.
I mean where do we even start with that?
Whoever persuaded Biden to debate Trump on live TV *before* the final nominations were in was a genius though.
If she can come up with a way to blunt the border issue - which given the GOP rejected legislation which would have done something to address it a year ahead of the election, is far from impossible - then Trump is toast.
Not plain sailing, of course.
Then Pelosi came over, after a bottle of vodka, with Skevington’s Gyves
Charlotte Dujardin, Britain's joint-most decorated female Olympian, has been provisionally suspended for six months by equestrian's governing body the FEI.
A lawyer representing the claimant who filed an official complaint against Dujardin to the FEI said in an accompanying letter seen by the BBC "the video shows Ms Dujardin beating a horse excessively with a whip".
"What happened was completely out of character and does not reflect how I train my horses or coach my pupils, however there is no excuse," she said in statement.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/equestrian/articles/cd16ll5z086o
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Viaduc-Millau_Pile-P2_Eiffel.svg
The Dems need to put Mark Kelly hero astronaut , devoted husband for Gabby Gifford’s and a generally really nice guy up against Vance who wants to ban abortion and thinks childless woman are second class citizens .
You're now going to set Leon off about the weird pleasures of people who live in Newent.
Antirhinnum feast at Heligan.
A few possible problems
1. She turns out to be an awful campaigner
2. The Trump sassytempt turns out to be more conspiratorial than is assumed
3. Biden is still there. Still President. And will be - dementedly - all the way to January. I think this is her biggest problem
Against that, at least 40% of likely voters absolutely loathe Trump and would vote for Pol Pot if he was the only alternative to the Donald. And that *should* see her over the line
I’ve been asking about this.
Do it, Betfair, please.
Problem for Trump would be with whom ?
Please don’t say Doug Burgum, anybody.
They sabotaged and terminated their own king
The New Jersey senator said he would step down in late August, bowing to intense pressure from Democratic colleagues.
Had Trump dropped out, certainly.
What’s the patriotic option? Fuck Biden. Persuade him to make a career ending mistake
https://x.com/karluskap/status/1815806042384609767
He’s on the plane from Delaware to Washington.
Also I don’t think you need a tin foil hat to perceive this election as being as sinister and dangerous as all fuckettybollocks. Trump is only alive because he turned his head for a moment in an unexpected way, and the security around him was so bad it’s forced the retirement of the seekyserv director
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11648811/Awkward-moment-Kamala-refuses-kneel-Biden-photo-op.html
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Biden has been sufficiently behind for a while. Partly the Afghan evacuation fiasco, partly governments are unpopular everywhere.
But how could he walk without admitting failure and handing the election to his enemy? Walking makes him a loser. Being forced to leave by age and sickness, even in a messy "I don't want to go" way, makes him a hero. Assassination would have been even better for his reputation, but also going too far.
To be clear, I don't believe a word of this. But if I were writing the novelisation, it's a tempting line to take. (What I actually believe is that age is now catching up with him, but only really in the last couple of months. When he is in control of his diary, and can just delegate a load of stuff, it's not an issue. But he's not up to the full-on exposure of campaigning.)
Someone needs to point out his cynicism that he was part of society, the 1%.
https://www.gbnews.com/news/us/watch-video-woke-kamala-harris-pronouns
Kamala Harris Says Slavery Led to Untreated 'Physiological Outcomes,' Supports Reparations as Mental Health Issue
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-slavery-untreated-physiological-outcomes-mental-health-1362870
I’d take a little bit off the table at evens.
Which we can now see was total nonsense, as was pointed out to you then. Sorry
At least IKB did both the engineering and the detail design and pretty frills.