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Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    Ghedebrav said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Greens GAIN Suffolk Coastal from Cons!

    Omg!
    No way
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    edited July 5
    Portsmouth North

    Penny loses to Lab!!!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,141
    edited July 5
    Mordaunt out. :(
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    edited July 5
    Portsmouth North -> Lab gain

    Lab 14,495
    Con 13,715
    Ref 8,501
    LD 3,031
    Grn 1,851

    Lab maj 780

    turnout 59%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited July 5
    Portsmouth N

    Lab 14495
    LDs 3031
    Cons 13715
    Ref 8501

    Penny Mordaunt defeated
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited July 5
    Labour topple Penny by 780
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239
    Penny dropped
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Penny out!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,628
    KentRising said:

    It will be Penny v Kemi for leader.

    No it won't!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Penny's dropped...
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,307
    Penny gone.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Penny gone!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    Penny out!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    KentRising said:

    It will be Penny v Kemi for leader.

    Errr maybe not then.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,560
    Penny gone.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,737
    Penny loses a close fight.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    Penny falls on her sword
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 430
    Mordaunt loses to lab
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,149
    The weird results have now been replaced by more expected results.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Reform have sunk Mordaunt.

    Not a great Labour vote. She'd have got it without the Wokery.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited July 5
    Lab gain Middlesborough S and Cleveland Simon Clarke defeated
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    COFFEY out - Green gain. Christ, Labour and the Tories aren't the only 2 parties with massive issues in their coalitions.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,353
    Penny gone
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,650
    Brighton Pavilion has not yet declared. Should I be concerned?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    The Reform vote did for Penny.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Penny loses.

    Booo.

    Had she become leader I would have become her speechwriter and Chief of Staff.

    We would have broken her record of the most uses of the word 'cock' in a Commons speech.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Mercer gone
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories unexpectedly hold Staffordshire Moorlands, given the swings in other seats in the area like Lichfield.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001514

    Its a proper funny place with funny folk, not in the comedian way.
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 167
    Just put a fiver on hunt as next leader at 80 to 1
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    Thérèse Coffey gone from Suffolk Coastal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    Ghedebrav said:

    Can the bbc dislodge their head and camera from Reform’s arse to pay any attention to these green gains?

    Nope
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Sussex Weald Con hold
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Mercer out
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 167
    50-50 to keep his seat…
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Johnny Mercer has lost.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    The Wokepenny gone
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Low turnout and Reform getting involved means few impressive vote counts for winning candidates.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    These results are a bloodbath for the Tories and the SNP.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    EScrymgeour said:

    Penny falls on her sword

    This was the comment that nailed it.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Haha Penny Mordaunt, Therese Coffey, Johnny Mercer all lose.

    Nasty pieces of work all of them

    Yay!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    MikeL said:

    Green gain Suffolk Coastal

    Not convinced.

    Bury St Edmunds was also "announced" early
    Actually a Labour gain
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    20s
    Where on earth did that come from?! I don't think anyone had the Greens winning that seat.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,149
    williamglenn said:

    Mercer out

    Thank God. He behaved like such a tool these last few weeks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Suffolk Coastal Lab gain
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    CORRECTION: LAB WINS SUFFOLK COASTAL

    Coffey out.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited July 5
    Chameleon said:

    COFFEY out - Green gain. Christ, Labour and the Tories aren't the only 2 parties with massive issues in their coalitions.

    Just to clarify - transcription error by Sky - actually Lab gain.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    Mercer gone, huzzah!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    What is it that I can easily listen to Ed Balls but turn over instantly when Mandelson comes on?

    Erugh.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Thérèse Coffey gone from Suffolk Coastal.

    Sad news along with Penny
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    MikeL said:

    CORRECTION: LAB WINS SUFFOLK COASTAL

    Coffey out.

    Hah.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    45s
    Simon Clarke has lost Middlesborough South.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,718
    John Swinney looking devastated on BBC Scotland.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,628
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Johnny Mercer has lost.

    A real pity but no surprise
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    Mercer loses. Nice

    And Dumbartonshire Mid returns home to the Lib Dems. Worth a jig.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    REF come second in Hornchurch & Upminster

    Con 32.5
    REF 28.4
    Lab 27.6
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    Ely and East Cambridgeshire has ditched Lucy Frazer.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    Casino_Royale said:

    Reform have sunk Mordaunt.

    Not a great Labour vote. She'd have got it without the Wokery.

    Yet another case where it's been a truly terrible night for the Labour Party.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Heathener said:

    Haha Penny Mordaunt, Therese Coffey, Johnny Mercer all lose.

    Nasty pieces of work all of them

    Yay!

    Soooooo pleased all of them have lost. Nasty pieces of work.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,149
    Labour just about to reach its 2015 result.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    LDs GAIN Glasto from Cons
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Solihull W Con hold
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,353
    TimS said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    Er, no. Labour landslide is the story.
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    Er, no. Labour landslide is the story.
    You can be sure that the media coverage minutes per seat for Reform will be somewhat greater than for Greens per seat or Lib Dems per seat.
    Yup. BBC :love: Reform
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 742
    edited July 5
    anyone else think the reform candidate against penny looked like a chubbier and shorter joe biden? might explain why he's been so distracted recently
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Sevenoaks Con hold
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    Thangam Debbonaire was probably my favourite Labour MP, sad to see her lose her seat in Bristol Central.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Burgessian said:

    John Swinney looking devastated on BBC Scotland.

    Another SNP leadership candidate election incoming?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,652
    HYUFD said:

    Sussex Weald Con hold

    Praise be! The Tories won't be entirely wiped out of Sussex!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    Don’t get the Curtice adjustments at all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Tories win Sevenoaks by miles - LDs overtake Labour to take second, another fail by the tactical vote sites.

    So I win my bet at 1/3, which I doubt I will ever see for that seat again.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    HYUFD said:

    Lab gain Middlesborough S and Cleveland Simon Clarke defeated

    Couple of hundred votes, Clarke will be one of the highest tory vote shares at 42%
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 430
    edited July 5
    Saqib Bhatti wins fairly easily in Meriden & Solihull East;

    CON: 16,792
    LAB: 12,208
    LIB DEM: 3,353
    GREEN: 2,929
    REF: 8,753
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Westmorland and Lonsdale LD gain
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Casino_Royale said:

    Reform have sunk Mordaunt.

    Not a great Labour vote. She'd have got it without the Wokery.

    18% swing Con to Lab but hey ;)
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 167
    Surely it’s Penny drops…
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    Claire Coutinho has held on in East Surrey.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 430
    Mercer lost
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,141
    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see Penny lose :(

    Yeah, the Conservative Party's not going to learn the right lessons and make a massive rightwards swing, isn't it, given the survivors. They're going to be out of power for 15 years.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    Ghedebrav said:

    Can the bbc dislodge their head and camera from Reform’s arse to pay any attention to these green gains?

    This is one of our biggest problems. The media stiffy for the far right.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,149
    Labour won Suffolk Coastal.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    ydoethur said:

    Burgessian said:

    John Swinney looking devastated on BBC Scotland.

    Another SNP leadership candidate election incoming?
    It's time for Forbes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Andy_JS said:

    Thangam Debbonaire was probably my favourite Labour MP, sad to see her lose her seat in Bristol Central.

    Labour top team weakened. Culture secretary who was properly in the arts.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Haha Penny Mordaunt, Therese Coffey, Johnny Mercer all lose.

    Nasty pieces of work all of them

    Yay!

    Soooooo pleased all of them have lost. Nasty pieces of work.
    PENNY held a SWORD. Be more respectful
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,010
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Labour won Suffolk Coastal.

    John Gummer's former seat, when it seemed like a Tory fortress.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    "democracy is never wrong" Mordaunt
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    Penny showing class as always
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,120
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    LDs GAIN Glasto from Cons

    Ah yes. "Oh, Sa-ar-ah Dyke!" as I believe huge crowds chanted at Glasto last week.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640
    Mordaunt speech: “Democracy is never wrong.” Good concession speech.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited July 5
    Bassetlaw is Lab gain, Reform in third, exit poll had Refor m winning.



    https://x.com/I_am_the_Paulus/status/1809055989733228685/photo/1
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,307
    Mercer gone!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    Bye Jonny and Felicity!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    HYUFD said:

    Westmorland and Lonsdale LD gain

    Huh? Or is that based on a notional Tory win last time on new boundaries?
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 430
    BTW, well done @Sean_F for pointing out the BBC exit poll update, earlier.

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,560
    edited July 5
    Monksfield said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Can the bbc dislodge their head and camera from Reform’s arse to pay any attention to these green gains?

    This is one of our biggest problems. The media stiffy for the far right.
    Person espouses moderate opinion is not news and doesn't drive clicks or views.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,120
    HYUFD said:

    Westmorland and Lonsdale LD gain

    Praise the Lord.

    (slightly too much)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    GIN1138 said:

    Penny showing class as always

    Penny reading out her leadership declaration, you mean? No point wasting it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    Monksfield said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Can the bbc dislodge their head and camera from Reform’s arse to pay any attention to these green gains?

    This is one of our biggest problems. The media stiffy for the far right.
    Reform will poll far better than the Greens tonight.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    ydoethur said:

    Burgessian said:

    John Swinney looking devastated on BBC Scotland.

    Another SNP leadership candidate election incoming?
    Nippy said there was no threat to his leadership

    So, yes...
This discussion has been closed.