Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

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  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    Oh god, the centrist dads of PB sound like the French Republicans in about 2015
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Boston. Another bet came through
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    I thought reports were Holden was behind by 20!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Lab gain Lincoln, Cons hold Louth and Horncastle
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Gosh four for Reform. Big 4 all in.
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    The fact the Tories held Aldridge Brownhills and lost Lichfield tells you all you need to know about how Fabricant’s erratic behaviour in recent years has gone down with his voters.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,311
    IOW W Labour gain, 13200 v Tory 10,000. Seely gone, Labour’s chippie from Cowes elected
  • PJH
    PJH Posts: 875
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    I've just woken up to see things are pretty much as expected: a Labour landslide.

    Good luck to all the new MPs, and thanks to all the outgoing MPs.

    Starmer has a lot of work ahead of him...
  • Eabhal
    Eabhal Posts: 11,275
    IanB2 said:

    Hubris rather than humility from IDS

    The Conservatives could make exactly the same mistake as they did after 1997.
  • AlsoLei
    AlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    edited July 2024
    Rumours that the DUP are in trouble in North Antrim - could be a TUV gain

    (and would the broadcasters count it towards the Refuk total if so?)
  • LostPassword
    LostPassword Posts: 19,679
    Is that four Labour losses now?
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    IanB2 said:

    Hubris rather than humility from IDS

    Totally. The last person that the Tories need in parliament.

    Lab threw that one away.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,862
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tice GAINS Boston for REFORM!

    Tice and Farage and Anderson in the same Commons office.

    What could possibly go wrong?
  • SeaShantyIrish2
    SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MikeL said:

    I thought reports were Holden was behind by 20!

    Reports IIRC were that there was a 20 vote margin; didn't say which way.
  • Nunu5
    Nunu5 Posts: 988
    Dumbosaurus said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    Kemi's lovely.

    Suella's evil.

    So she'll probably win...

    (I still think tories if any sense should wait a bit before choosing)
    So they'll pick straight away?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Flatlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
    Is now the time to end that policy and leave it to MPs?
    No, the MPs alone picked Rishi
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    I'm just confused with these results now, no more predicting seat counts from me, not sure what to think. Certainly an entertaining night anyhow.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,862
    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    rottenborough said:

    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent

    Yes
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    edited July 2024
    Ilford South Lab Hold (Jas Athwal new MP)
    Athwal 40%
    Indy got 23%
    Cons 15%
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    I think I’ve lost my bet with @Sandpit
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,311
    Debbonaire was crushed!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    PJH said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
    39.3% was the biggest Lab to SNP in Glasgow NE in 2015.
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    PJH said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
    There was a 39 swing in one of the Glasgow seats in 2015.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Fabricant out, no-one expected it.
  • DecrepiterJohnL
    DecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,766
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News -> 100 votes in it in Godalming & Ash.

    Hunt is the one tory I would vote for to reward his public service.

    He did the nation a huge service after Truss/Kwarteng spectacularly fucked everything up.

    Decent chap. If any tory deserves re-election, it is him.
    Hunt's more recent measures seemed designed only to screw Labour.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited July 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    Basildon & Billericay -> Con hold

    Con (Holden) 12,905
    Lab 12,885
    Ref 11,354
    LD 2,292
    Grn 2,123

    Very close threeway between Holden, Lab and Reform there but Holden comes first
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    It does so far look to have been a quite large miss for the MRPs.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    rottenborough said:

    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent

    Yes.
  • Pro_Rata
    Pro_Rata Posts: 5,690
    TimS said:

    SMukesh said:

    Carla Denyer will be the best looking MP in my book

    Lib Dem MP for Chichester
    Katie White - Leeds NW
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    PJH said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
    It's almost as if pumping millions of gallons of shit into Chichester harbour upset genteel locals in some way.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Con hold Surrey East and Sussex Weald - both easily
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    PJH said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
    PJH said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, not even close in Chicester.

    That must be one of the biggest GE swings ever, surely? 31% swing!
    She has that effect on people
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Was it worth giving up half a dozen Islamic / swampy seats for this majority?
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,862
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent

    Yes.
    Guess he will get an early peerage then?
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    Andy_JS said:

    Fabricant out, no-one expected it.

    That was always on the cards, but I’ll admit I misjudged it. I thought the Lib Dems would be his challengers.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited July 2024
    Jenrick holds Newark and Cons hold Surrey E
  • Flatlander
    Flatlander Posts: 5,137
    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It’s Suella or Kemi for Leader

    No, Tory MPs will put Barclay and Tugendhat to the members is my view still
    Is now the time to end that policy and leave it to MPs?
    No, the MPs alone picked Rishi
    Only after the members' choice failed to outlast a lettuce.
  • Nunu5
    Nunu5 Posts: 988
    BREAKING NEWS: Recount in #Blackburn, Independent candidate Adnan Hussain who stood on Palestine platform ahead by 50 votes to incumbent Labour MP Kate Hollern. #GeneralElection2024

    Labour have a Gaza problem
  • biggles
    biggles Posts: 6,817
    Starmer has a real issue on his left flank doesn’t he?
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I'm just confused with these results now, no more predicting seat counts from me, not sure what to think. Certainly an entertaining night anyhow.

    It is unusually capricious. Good fun. I fell drunkenly asleep during the boring wait-y bit which was perfect
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Coutinho has held on.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited July 2024
    Labour gain Watford and Milton Keynes Central
  • AramintaMoonbeamQC
    AramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    Luke Akehurst elected in Durham NE, cheers lads, Novara Media are crying now.
  • londonpubman
    londonpubman Posts: 3,665
    CON hold a seat in Surrey!

    Surrey E !!!
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,862

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    1m
    Lib Dems take Tunbridge Wells, a seat the Tories have held forever on a 21.4% swing.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited July 2024
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It does so far look to have been a quite large miss for the MRPs.

    If we never have to hear/see another MRP poll again I won't be sorry...
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    IanB2 said:

    IOW W Labour gain, 13200 v Tory 10,000. Seely gone, Labour’s chippie from Cowes elected

    First IOW Labour MP ever
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent

    Yes.
    Guess he will get an early peerage then?
    First winnable by election for Labour.

    He's 45.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Tice elected.
  • 148grss
    148grss Posts: 4,155
    biggles said:

    Starmer has a real issue on his left flank doesn’t he?

    Yup
  • Nunu5
    Nunu5 Posts: 988
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It does so far look to have been a quite large miss for the MRPs.

    Can't blame them!
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Tories lost Redditch by just 789 votes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001441
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    HYUFD said:

    Jenrick holds Newark and Cons hold Surrey E

    Pity.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,862
    Claire Coutinho holds.

    Leadership run?
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Watford and Milton Keynes Central

    Despite a 4% drop in their share.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001568
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    BBC have cameras at Boston and at Clacton and at Ashfield.

    But not at Bristol.

    Tossers.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,862
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is this real?????

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    27m
    Jonathan Ashworth (LAB) has LOST Leicester South to an independent

    Yes.
    Guess he will get an early peerage then?
    First winnable by election for Labour.

    He's 45.
    Peerage would be faster way of getting him into cabinet?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Con hold Droitwich
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    SMukesh said:

    Boston. Another bet came through

    Tice calls his election in Boston the proudest day in his life
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Cons HOLD Romford - exit poll said 99% Lab chance!
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Stirling is being reported as a Lab gain from SNP.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Labour gain Stirling and Gedling
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    Reform is the story
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Romford was Lab gain on EP
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Exit poll seems to have got Scotland very wrong.

    Ah well, a distant country of which we know little.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    It will be Penny v Kemi for leader.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Penny declaration now
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    biggles said:

    Starmer has a real issue on his left flank doesn’t he?

    He's had his wings clipped.

    This is a very flaky majority.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Labour almost lose Llanelli to Reform.

    Lab 12751
    Ref 11247
    PC 9511
    Con 4275

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/W07000098
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Penny declaration
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    How big a majority?
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,862
    biggles said:

    Starmer has a real issue on his left flank doesn’t he?

    Inevitable.

    The question in 2028 will be whether the left/green/reform pincer movement is enough to overturn such a huge majority???
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Labour win Beckenham and hold Oxford E and Lewisham W

  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    Pre-ordained in your mind
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    biggles said:

    Starmer has a real issue on his left flank doesn’t he?

    Still, as long as he can bring a lasting and equitable peace to the Middle East in a way that is wholly satisfactory for Jews and Muslims alike in the next five years, he ought to be fine.
    Well, it is very much *his* responsibility to do so…
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Labour gain Grimsby
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    The Conservatives might have been able to get to a hung parliament with no Farage and a good campaign.
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    You mean how you went to bed with them looking at 14 MPs and woke up with them looking at four?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,311
    GIN1138 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It does so far look to have been a quite large miss for the MRPs.

    If we never have to hear/see another MRP poll again I won't be sorry...
    Assuming politics is simply a matter of demographics ignores candidates, campaigns, organisation, local issues and, well, a significant chunk of what we all recognise as politics.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Disappointing for the LDs that they haven't easily taken Godalming & Ash, Hunt must have a personal vote there.
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Aldershot as expected goes Labour.
  • biggles
    biggles Posts: 6,817
    Every election of my life, the exit polls have undercooked the Tories by 15-30. One day I will learn to bet on that fact.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited July 2024
    UK vote share now Lab 38%, Tories 22%, Ref 16%, LDs 10%, Greens 7%
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    Suella Braverman is a dreadful speaker. She sounds like a schoolteacher talking to a five year old.
  • FeersumEnjineeya
    FeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,792
    Leon said:

    Reform is the story

    Er, no. Labour landslide is the story.
  • AlsoLei
    AlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It does so far look to have been a quite large miss for the MRPs.

    UNS seems to have been better than any of the models. I can't understand why, though!
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Green gain Suffolk Coastal
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Greens GAIN Suffolk Coastal from Cons!
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Tories unexpectedly hold Staffordshire Moorlands, given the swings in other seats in the area like Lichfield.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001514
  • RandallFlagg
    RandallFlagg Posts: 1,418
    SLAB gain Stirling
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    LDs GAIN Ely!
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Every time a Tory speaks to the media my feelings that it's going to be a complete mess over the next few years become ever stronger.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited July 2024
    Casino_Royale said:

    The Conservatives might have been able to get to a hung parliament with no Farage and a good campaign.

    The disastrous first week of the campaign. Farage was going to go nowhere the GE until Sunak stood there blowing his own feet off.

    I don't think Tories get anywhere near a hung parliament, but certainly not a mega majority on 36-37% of the vote.
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    biggles said:

    Every election of my life, the exit polls have undercooked the Tories by 15-30. One day I will learn to bet on that fact.

    I did mention it shortly before 2200 last night.
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Greens GAIN Suffolk Coastal from Cons!

    Omg!
  • Cicero
    Cicero Posts: 3,622
    Greens win Bristol and Suffolk Coastal
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    MikeL said:

    Green gain Suffolk Coastal

    Not convinced.

    Bury St Edmunds was also "announced" early
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