The first key result sees a 16.5% Con to Lab swing. – politicalbetting.com
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I heard he had become a pineapple salesman in Venezuela.BatteryCorrectHorse said:@CorrectHorseBattery despite his ban and having called Corbyn wrong, got SKS right from the beginning. Wherever he is, I hope he knows that PB is behind him.
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Andy Burnham has now become a Starmerite, what a shame his leadership ambitions have gone. Not that he'd have been any good, he's had so many positions he is dizzy.2
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Did you not watch the media during COVID....state_go_away said:had to give up on the BBC and switch to ITV - whatever happened to detailed number analysis that the anchors could understand - ended with Dimbleby and Maitless i think
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Again, if they are calling Harpenden early, that's positive for LDs as the exit poll said nail-biter - 53% probability LD, 47% probability Tory. Esher is no surprise.Scott_xP said:@BethRigby
NEW: senior Lib Dem source tells me they think LDs will take Harpenden (for the 1st time in 100 years) and Esher (Dominic Raab's former seat)1 -
Dawn Butler tried to argue that the Tories only got 37% of the vote in 2019. I'm not sure what the talking point was supposed to be but she obviously mangled it.0
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Bad news for the Tories if so.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
If true, that is very positive - it was in the exit poll as an almost complete toss up - 53% likelihood Tory, 47% Lib Dem. So it was essentially 0.5 of a seat in the LD projected 61.Scott_xP said:@MrHarryCole
Libdems claiming Tunbridge Wells has fallen.0 -
@christopherhope
LATEST LibDems are declaring victory in these formerly Conservative seats:
1. Torbay
2. North Cornwall
3. Yeovil
4. Eastleigh
5. Wimbledon
6. Woking
7. Guildford
8. South Cambridgeshire
9. Cheadle
10. Hazel Grove
11. Wokingham
12. Lewes2 -
54% turnout based on so far
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Think she meant 2010williamglenn said:Dawn Butler tried to argue that the Tories only got 37% of the vote in 2019. I'm not sure what the talking point was supposed to be but she obviously mangled it.
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I guess Marquee Mark's canvassing may not have been too accurate..Scott_xP said:@christopherhope
LATEST LibDems are declaring victory in these formerly Conservative seats:
1. Torbay
2. North Cornwall
3. Yeovil
4. Eastleigh
5. Wimbledon
6. Woking
7. Guildford
8. South Cambridgeshire
9. Cheadle
10. Hazel Grove
11. Wokingham
12. Lewes1 -
I'm struggling to understand the sheet, what do these numbers mean?Pulpstar said:The auto-updating is working ! Annoyingly there is a (elected) by the winner which means it won't parse as a number. I'll just manually adjust rather than trying anything fancy now.
Eg the 31.9 under More in Common by Blyth etc
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3 hours in and just 6 results.
Arrrrgh!0 -
Good news for Labour verus exit poll if true. That had 44% chance of Tory gain (unusually) and 39% Labour (presumably 17% SNP hold).Scott_xP said:@KieranPAndrews
Well-placed source has just predicted that Labour will win Aberdeen South, which would see SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn lose his seat
Big caveat alert: cross-party sources say it's too early to call because not enough boxes have been opened0 -
Not a lot of brisk voting action.....rottenborough said:54% turnout based on so far
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I’m still not seeing 61Scott_xP said:@christopherhope
LATEST LibDems are declaring victory in these formerly Conservative seats:
1. Torbay
2. North Cornwall
3. Yeovil
4. Eastleigh
5. Wimbledon
6. Woking
7. Guildford
8. South Cambridgeshire
9. Cheadle
10. Hazel Grove
11. Wokingham
12. Lewes0 -
good pointPulpstar said:Basildon and Broxbourne are past expected declaration time.
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Horrible turnout for a "change" electionrottenborough said:54% turnout based on so far
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Perhaps Labour need to go into coalition with the Lib Dems to have legitimacy.GIN1138 said:
Think she meant 2010williamglenn said:Dawn Butler tried to argue that the Tories only got 37% of the vote in 2019. I'm not sure what the talking point was supposed to be but she obviously mangled it.
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That was the only one so far that didn't match up...I am religiously following your predictions when the vote comes in...but Labour actual share down 14% too. I didn't realise there were so many Corbynites there...Andy_JS said:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?gid=0#gid=0Chameleon said:I've lost the link to Andy's spreadsheet, anyone kind enough to share it again?
I cocked up the Newcastle Central result, expecting Lab to get 29,000 and they got 18,800.0 -
Could be distorted by lower turnout making the first seats quicker to count, whereas seats with turnout up could take longer?rottenborough said:54% turnout based on so far
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Can't say I've ever been aware of his presence in the area...Ghedebrav said:
Ed Miliband is reasonably popular in Donny fwiw.MisterBedfordshire said:
Would be quite an achievement if Reform beat Ed Miliband given that they neglected to stand in Doncaster Northwilliamglenn said:Claiming bragging rights in advance - from June 14th:
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4835350#Comment_4835350
I'm standing by my hunch that the Portillo moment will be a prominent Labour MP losing to Reform. An Yvette Cooper or an Ed Miliband.
I do think Reform would have done better in Doncaster North but judging by results they'll be second in Doncaster Central.0 -
No chance whatsoever for next ten years now.IanB2 said:Dawn Butler coming out in favour of a debate about PR
Nigel Farage.0 -
@patrickkmaguire
Labour source in Islington suggests Jeremy Corbyn could be on course for a narrow victory – likely to be as few as 1500 votes in it3 -
Last time I did that I woke up in Bristol.Sunil_Prasannan said:I confess I fell asleep just before Swindon South
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"looking difficult for Lab in Islington North" - Rigby quoting a Labour source.0
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I was expecting 70 and still think it might happen.IanB2 said:
I’m still not seeing 61Scott_xP said:@christopherhope
LATEST LibDems are declaring victory in these formerly Conservative seats:
1. Torbay
2. North Cornwall
3. Yeovil
4. Eastleigh
5. Wimbledon
6. Woking
7. Guildford
8. South Cambridgeshire
9. Cheadle
10. Hazel Grove
11. Wokingham
12. Lewes0 -
Gateshead Central Labour hold.1
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It not a change election; it’s a disillusionment election.GIN1138 said:
Horrible turnout for a "change" electionrottenborough said:54% turnout based on so far
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Saying likely to be close to the 61% of 2005 overall.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not a lot of brisk voting action.....rottenborough said:54% turnout based on so far
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I only have 87 on my target/possibles list, and some of those look long shots indeedAndy_JS said:
I was expecting 70 and still think it might happen.IanB2 said:
I’m still not seeing 61Scott_xP said:@christopherhope
LATEST LibDems are declaring victory in these formerly Conservative seats:
1. Torbay
2. North Cornwall
3. Yeovil
4. Eastleigh
5. Wimbledon
6. Woking
7. Guildford
8. South Cambridgeshire
9. Cheadle
10. Hazel Grove
11. Wokingham
12. Lewes0 -
Those are usually pretty low turnout seats - though still down a bit.rottenborough said:54% turnout based on so far
I think we’re seeing a new geographical pattern, as suggested earlier: parts of the East and NE become Labour-Reform battlegrounds, Stockbroker belt and Wessex a Lib-Con area, and the rest of England Lab-Con.
Bad news for the Conservatives in the next election I think, unless they merge with the Putinists.0 -
@PickardJE
this is just a bad result for the Conservatives, it’s the worst result for the Conservatives in two centuries
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Terrible. Well below 2001 would be astonishing.GIN1138 said:
Horrible turnout for a "change" electionrottenborough said:54% turnout based on so far
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BBC: Richard Holden in Basildon may lose seat.7
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They do get questions at PMQs though. Or rather, Farage does. And remember he now gets a response to every statement. He was capable of getting his speeches viral when in the EU Parliament and may be able to here as well.IanB2 said:
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?Andy_JS said:
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.GIN1138 said:Very strange election.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?0 -
Didn't say who to thoughAndy_JS said:BBC: Richard Holden in Basildon may lose seat.
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ITV again?Sunil_Prasannan said:Gateshead Central Labour hold.
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I think I have won all but three of my bets:
1. Conservatives in Brecon
2. Conservatives 150-199
3. LD sell 62 (likely to be flat)
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Labour I think.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Didn't say who to thoughAndy_JS said:BBC: Richard Holden in Basildon may lose seat.
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PLEASE GOD YESAndy_JS said:BBC: Richard Holden in Basildon may lose seat.
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No chance Labour is going anywhere near PR tonight after winning 63% of the seats on just 36% of the vote on the exit pollrottenborough said:
No chance whatsoever for next ten years now.IanB2 said:Dawn Butler coming out in favour of a debate about PR
Nigel Farage.0 -
George Osbourne sounding like he had defected to Labour -0
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People don't vote they used to....mid 70%s was normal prior to 2001, even 1997, where it was said lots of Tories sat on their hands was 71%.Pro_Rata said:
Saying likely to be close to the 61% of 2005 overall.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not a lot of brisk voting action.....rottenborough said:54% turnout based on so far
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Does anyone have Norman Hall's vote in Gateshead Central ?
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BF thinks Islington North is all over - Corbyn has won1
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Yup. The Dorries line. “More in sorrow than in anger”.Monksfield said:
I never said biased BBC, just not a fan of Laura.biggles said:
He’s won more, from tight positions, than many.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Isaac Levido will never run an election campaign ever again. Useless.
Biased BBC? You sound like Nadine Dorries!Monksfield said:
Laura must be terribly disappointed though.Jonathan said:BBC’s coverage is very flat.
I’ve been on itv.
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Labour needs to deliver for the north. The Tories blagged it up but did little, Labour needs to deliver visibly.0
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I'm seeing it if they are claiming these NOW. It's rare to brief that you've gotr it unless you're pretty confident on the boxes opened so far. Some of those are no surprise at all - but to call Torbay, Wokingham and to an extent Woking (although local circumstances) pretty early is very positive. And comments elsewhere suggest they are pretty bullish on Berkhampstead and Tunbridge Wells - again fairly stretching targets.IanB2 said:
I’m still not seeing 61Scott_xP said:@christopherhope
LATEST LibDems are declaring victory in these formerly Conservative seats:
1. Torbay
2. North Cornwall
3. Yeovil
4. Eastleigh
5. Wimbledon
6. Woking
7. Guildford
8. South Cambridgeshire
9. Cheadle
10. Hazel Grove
11. Wokingham
12. Lewes
There will be ones they won't get on the flipside that they hoped for. But these are seats that the exit poll said were finely balanced.0 -
It would be Labour I think. Reform have a chance in South Basildon / East Thurrock but not in Basildon & Billericay.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Didn't say who to thoughAndy_JS said:BBC: Richard Holden in Basildon may lose seat.
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Could labour apply to join the EEA?1
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If he's the fifth party behind Lab, Con, LD and SNP, he won't get much visibility in the Commons.biggles said:
They do get questions at PMQs though. Or rather, Farage does. And remember he now gets a response to every statement. He was capable of getting his speeches viral when in the EU Parliament and may be able to here as well.IanB2 said:
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?Andy_JS said:
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.GIN1138 said:Very strange election.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?0 -
62% turnout IOW west. About 4% down on the whole island last time2
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Embarrassing to do a chicken run and still lose.Andy_JS said:BBC: Richard Holden in Basildon may lose seat.
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2
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Not bet on it but get in.TheWhiteRabbit said:BF thinks Islington North is all over - Corbyn has won
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I really hope they appreciate the responsibility they haveMonksfield said:Labour needs to deliver for the north. The Tories blagged it up but did little, Labour needs to deliver visibly.
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likely to be 4th or 5th party so not many PMQs, and he has to be arsed to get out of the bar first.biggles said:
They do get questions at PMQs though. Or rather, Farage does. And remember he now gets a response to every statement. He was capable of getting his speeches viral when in the EU Parliament and may be able to here as well.IanB2 said:
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?Andy_JS said:
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.GIN1138 said:Very strange election.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?1 -
A great escape!Fairliered said:
Last time I did that I woke up in Bristol.Sunil_Prasannan said:I confess I fell asleep just before Swindon South
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Sunak could have waited until next January.0
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Gateshead Central & Whickham result:
Lab 18,245
Ref 8,601
LD 4,987
Con 4,628
Grn 3,217
TUSC 369
Save Us Now 170
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001244
2019 notional result:
Lab 19,787
Con 13,876
LD 5,138
Brexit 1,629
Grn 1,591
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/22072 -
Would the result have been any different?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Sunak could have waited until next January.
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SKYAndy_JS said:
ITV again?Sunil_Prasannan said:Gateshead Central Labour hold.
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Other parties will need to do better, then. But also there’s more to politics than just telling people what they want to hear so you win. You have to actually do admin and stuff. That’s what’s got the Cons in the mess they are currently in.biggles said:
They do get questions at PMQs though. Or rather, Farage does. And remember he now gets a response to every statement. He was capable of getting his speeches viral when in the EU Parliament and may be able to here as well.IanB2 said:
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?Andy_JS said:
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.GIN1138 said:Very strange election.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?0 -
Peston aside, ITV has the best coverage for me, 3 big beast politicians and 2 analysts
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That is certainly true.Monksfield said:Labour needs to deliver for the north. The Tories blagged it up but did little, Labour needs to deliver visibly.
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Thank you AndyAndy_JS said:Gateshead Central & Whickham result:
Lab 18,245
Ref 8,601
LD 4,987
Con 4,628
Grn 3,217
TUSC 369
Save Us Now 170
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E140012441 -
Slightly different format in the Commons. Ask Ed Davey - empty benches and people chatting among themselves for effect. It's all deliberately done to belittle - and it works to an extent.biggles said:
They do get questions at PMQs though. Or rather, Farage does. And remember he now gets a response to every statement. He was capable of getting his speeches viral when in the EU Parliament and may be able to here as well.IanB2 said:
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?Andy_JS said:
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.GIN1138 said:Very strange election.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?0 -
Wait.
"Through no fault of their own."
Oh puh'lease.1 -
Peston is just appalling0
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I think I'll be about 50/50 in terms of number won, but very much up when all netted out as vast majority wayyyy over evens. But we shall see...rcs1000 said:I think I have won all but three of my bets:
1. Conservatives in Brecon
2. Conservatives 150-199
3. LD sell 62 (likely to be flat)
(Something wayyyyy over evens still available is rishi exit date which is not rishi exit date - it's actually on next tory permanent leader becoming so. I probably wouldn't back the 26 that's available atm but you will likely get 40 if you try to)0 -
https://x.com/markmleach/status/543826870660521985
So @Keir_Starmer selected in Holborn & St Pancras. Surely a future Labour leader and PM. You read it here first.0 -
Tories FOURTH in Gateshead Central2
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I just hope that he goes to the toilet at some point, accidentally on purpose somebody locks him in there for the rest of the night.DoubleCarpet said:Peston aside, ITV has the best coverage for me, 3 big beast politicians and 2 analysts
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Tories might have improved. Early July is an odd time, feels like 650 by-elections.FrancisUrquhart said:
Would the result have been any different?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Sunak could have waited until next January.
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The idea that Bromsgrove goes red is blowing my mind0
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IOW E - Reform thinks it’s close between her, the Tories and the Green. Labour’s candidate not at the count. Result expected 03000
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Aye I read that post through the hole in my pocket....rcs1000 said:0 -
Twitter discussion so far appears to be that Labour will so slightly better and the Tories slightly worse than the exit poll, so I wouldn’t be super confident in that 150+ Tory seat bet just yet?Yokes said:
You reckon the Conservatives above 150 seats? There was me thinking my money was done earlier.rcs1000 said:I think I have won all but three of my bets:
1. Conservatives in Brecon
2. Conservatives 150-199
3. LD sell 62 (likely to be flat)
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My parents have gone away to Cumbria - decided at short notice - and weren't bothered about not voting.Pulpstar said:
Tories might have improved. Early July is an odd time, feels like 650 by-elections.FrancisUrquhart said:
Would the result have been any different?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Sunak could have waited until next January.
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Unders on the exit poll is feeling good. 50-99 at 17s is feeling like superb value, and possibly the best value loser of the night for me. Now down to 5s.Scott_xP said:@IainDale
Getting whispers of total Tory carnage in Kent. North Kent corridor going Labour. But most Tory seats on the edge. Of the 18 seats in Kent, Tories may well lose more than 12. LibDems say they've won Tunbridge Wells, which echoes what I am hearing.0 -
Quite funny that Swindon South majority fits right in with the NE strongholds for Labour.0
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You must be new here.state_go_away said:Peston is just appalling
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I find Laura K, for all the (slightly weird) hatred for her, much more bearable than Peston.FrancisUrquhart said:
I just hope that he goes to the toilet at some point, accidentally on purpose somebody locks him in there for the rest of the night.DoubleCarpet said:Peston aside, ITV has the best coverage for me, 3 big beast politicians and 2 analysts
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Dehanna Davison still blaming Labour after 14 years.3
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I don't think the economic landscape will have improved significantly by then, in fact it could be worse. Sunak was absolutely awful campaigner (we knew that already to some extent, but he was gaffe mcgaffe face) that wouldn't have changed. Maybe D-Day and betting gate might not have happened (well D-Day would, but probably faded by then).Pulpstar said:
Tories might have improved. Early July is an odd time, feels like 650 by-elections.FrancisUrquhart said:
Would the result have been any different?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Sunak could have waited until next January.
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I think you've misunderstood. Robert was saying that's one of three bets he reckons he's LOST.PedestrianRock said:
Twitter discussion so far appears to be that Labour will so slightly better and the Tories slightly worse than the exit poll, so I wouldn’t be super confident in that 150+ Tory seat bet just yet?Yokes said:
You reckon the Conservatives above 150 seats? There was me thinking my money was done earlier.rcs1000 said:I think I have won all but three of my bets:
1. Conservatives in Brecon
2. Conservatives 150-199
3. LD sell 62 (likely to be flat)0 -
I wish they still regarded the election programmes as primarily a results service, but they probably think people should just look them up themselves these days.DoubleCarpet said:Peston aside, ITV has the best coverage for me, 3 big beast politicians and 2 analysts
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Mandelson used to be so sharp. What happened?1
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Yes, I’ve settled on ITV. Best tonightDoubleCarpet said:Peston aside, ITV has the best coverage for me, 3 big beast politicians and 2 analysts
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Sunak has to have run the worst campaign in history. I do wonder if he wanted to lose.0
