Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Reform certainly seemed to improve their poll ratings in the final week as labour fell below 40% and the Tories fell a little further too.
I’m not convinced of an surge in voter numbers from anecdotal comments based on ‘someone said this’.
We shall see.
Reform 7 or more seats now massive favourite on betfair.
That's a clear lay for me. Reform aren't a party, they're a one man ego trip with the organisational skills of a drunk brontosaurus.
But they may also turn out to be a popular ego trip amongst certain sections of the population. Nor do they need to win anything like a majority of the votes cast in their target seats if the bulk of them turn into three way marginals.
Exotic Labour and Reform gains in some exceedingly Tory places are not out of the question.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Turnout was startling across Didcot and Wallingford today - long queues of voters at some places and steady polling all day, Unlikely to be a Reform surge, no Tories at polling stations anywhere (and no Tory posters either - and this is supposed to be a safe Tory seat) and Labour actively discouraged local members (switching off access to the polling data), so I think it's a LibDem surge. The LibDem campaign was almost exclusively air war, with leaflets arriving several times a week - interesting if that works.
Reform 20% or more vote share now strong favourite on betfair. Was Goodwin right.
At one point didn't Goodwin have them at 25?
My own personal theory is that Goodwin may have led his polling sample to that 25%, by asking them questions about Reform's policies before the VI question. I think he did it to find out how people responded to right wing policies. I think he didn't do it the next time, and they went back to 20%. Which seems more realistic.
Reform 20% or more vote share now strong favourite on betfair. Was Goodwin right.
It's not the strong favourite in the sense that Betfair do the votes in bands with over 20% being the top band. So several of the bands give you a couple of percent either way, whereas the top band is ANYTHING above. That's only at 3.5 - so the odds on it being under 20% are still shorter than of it being over 20%.
This line ought also to concern the anti-cash brigade: Payment processors are also increasingly wary of working with platforms that enable sex based commerce.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
This line ought also to concern the anti-cash brigade: Payment processors are also increasingly wary of working with platforms that enable sex based commerce.
That's politics finished then.
They can't take our money and fuck us over any more.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.
In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.
The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.
I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
I would agree with that, except that Norfolk South West doesn’t scan as well. Norfolk south scans, as does Norfolk west, but not Norfolk South West. Well not to my ear anyway.
I would prefer your suggestion over the status quo though.
People already put the county name first unofficially much of the time.
So just make it official so they look better in a spreadsheet, and people can officially say it differently.
I believe shire constituencies are "North West Barsetshire" and borough constituencies are "Borchester North West"
Also where has all this Reform surge chatter come from all of a sudden? Is this like the “Susan Hall is winning in London” chatter? Do we actually have anything to suggest this rather than a couple of posts suggesting high turnout?
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Also where has all this Reform surge chatter come from all of a sudden? Is this like the “Susan Hall is winning in London” chatter? Do we actually have anything to suggest this rather than a couple of posts suggesting high turnout?
Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.
In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.
The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.
I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
I would agree with that, except that Norfolk South West doesn’t scan as well. Norfolk south scans, as does Norfolk west, but not Norfolk South West. Well not to my ear anyway.
I would prefer your suggestion over the status quo though.
People already put the county name first unofficially much of the time.
So just make it official so they look better in a spreadsheet, and people can officially say it differently.
I believe shire constituencies are "North West Barsetshire" and borough constituencies are "Borchester North West"
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Scary times.
I plan for the worst but hope for the best.
Which isn't ideal when you're trying to bet on this election.
I’m 62. The Tories have completely dominated my adult life politically. There was the Blair intromission but he never really looked to change the status quo.
The idea that they might not be around anymore, like the SDP of my youth, is quite startling. Anything less than 120 and they are gone for good.
When the old-style Liberal Party lost their 'last' election was it obvious at the time? I'm not up in GE history.
Of the three factions into which the Liberal Party had split, each with a tranche of MPs, one allied with the Tories and kept its separate ‘National Liberal’ identity for a surprisingly long time (Michael Heseltine first stood as one) before eventually disappearing into the Tory party. The other two eventually got their act together, but found that the fast-moving history of the 1930s and 40s had passed them by, and the party only survived during and immediately after the war with a tiny handful of seats, and even some of those relied on pacts with other parties not standing against them.
The 1962 Orpington by-election win came out of the blue and was a small earthquake that set in train the long slow recovery, leading eventually to the opportunity and turmoil of the Labour split and the Alliance years. They were lucky in Grimond, Thorpe and Steel to have a series of dynamic capable leaders, despite the tiny size of the parliamentary party, each in their different way well suited to the emerging media age. Grimond laid the intellectual foundation for the recovery, making the party relevant for the times, and drawing into the party a lot of people who later became prominent, internally or externally. Thorpe was an excellent publicist who brought the party to wider attention (eventually in ways rather less helpful), and Steel was a solid leader with a good media persona and the judgement to lay the foundations for the eventual merger that became the LibDems.
Thanks, interesting. The first politician I was ever really aware of was David Penhaligon.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Turnout was startling across Didcot and Wallingford today - long queues of voters at some places and steady polling all day, Unlikely to be a Reform surge, no Tories at polling stations anywhere (and no Tory posters either - and this is supposed to be a safe Tory seat) and Labour actively discouraged local members (switching off access to the polling data), so I think it's a LibDem surge. The LibDem campaign was almost exclusively air war, with leaflets arriving several times a week - interesting if that works.
Also where has all this Reform surge chatter come from all of a sudden? Is this like the “Susan Hall is winning in London” chatter? Do we actually have anything to suggest this rather than a couple of posts suggesting high turnout?
We're at the "wild speculation and animal spirits" stage of this election. All good fun.
Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.
In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.
The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.
I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
I would agree with that, except that Norfolk South West doesn’t scan as well. Norfolk south scans, as does Norfolk west, but not Norfolk South West. Well not to my ear anyway.
I would prefer your suggestion over the status quo though.
People already put the county name first unofficially much of the time.
So just make it official so they look better in a spreadsheet, and people can officially say it differently.
I believe shire constituencies are "North West Barsetshire" and borough constituencies are "Borchester North West"
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.
In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.
The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.
I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
I would agree with that, except that Norfolk South West doesn’t scan as well. Norfolk south scans, as does Norfolk west, but not Norfolk South West. Well not to my ear anyway.
I would prefer your suggestion over the status quo though.
People already put the county name first unofficially much of the time.
So just make it official so they look better in a spreadsheet, and people can officially say it differently.
I believe shire constituencies are "North West Barsetshire" and borough constituencies are "Borchester North West"
On the Exit Poll, if it’s all completed by early afternoon, how can they know the daytime voting cohort is representative of voters as a whole?
They’re already missing postal voters but evening voters too?
Whatever model underlies the exit poll (which IIRC has been done by the same people since 2005) must have worked successfully on previous occasions using such data.
Going to the same geographical locations each time minimises the probability of error when computing all the swings, too.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
Had my election day dinner ( my special chilli con cane with red peppers rather than tomatoes) and started on a bottle of Argentinian red. Will I need more?
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
We should have done a PB election night special.
TSE to host.
Hyufd doing the polls.
Nick Palmer doing the analysis.
RCS doing the tech.
Me doing the awesome puns.
Leon the roving reporter, clearly a bit sozzled and trying to be down with the youth at whatever gathering he's reporting from
Can I bagsy drawing some maps?
I'm crap at writing but I've wondered if some random GIS output might make the odd article, from transport to other sillyness like 'distance to the nearest Waitrose'.
Anyone got any suggestions?
Of course, if the whole country is a sea of red, there's not going to be much scope for any geographical amusements...
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform. Take yer pick!
I have to be up early tomorrow, so have just demolished a Cantonese meal and am working on some mispriced old Rioja. Might stay up for first few results. Wish list:
Conservatives to survive to be official opposition SNP to get smashed Corbyn to lose Galloway to lose Farage to lose Starmer to turn out to be a decent prime minister
Is this how left wingers felt the last few elections?
It's quite relaxing to find I now longer give a fuck which bunch of fifth rate drunken buffoons will work with the Civil Service to completely misunderstand the problems we face and make them worse by their inept if sometimes well-intentioned meddling.
It would be nice to see the Toad Faced One lose in Clacton though.
To me it looks like voters whose “first” election was 1997 or after (born 1975 onwards) seem to consistently vote Conservative less than those older than them
The Tory voter age difference comes up a lot but not sure I’ve seen it mentioned how well it seems to line up with 1997
Can’t be bothered to speculate why but makes you wonder if it’s still possible for the blues to reach out to them and what that would look like
I don’t think it’s labour loyalty either as that seems to ebb and flow a bit more
I have to be up early tomorrow, so have just demolished a Cantonese meal and am working on some mispriced old Rioja. Might stay up for first few results. Wish list:
Conservatives to survive to be official opposition SNP to get smashed Corbyn to lose Galloway to lose Farage to lose Starmer to turn out to be a decent prime minister
I think it is time to give some serious credit to @Heathener. She saw this coming a long time before anyone else and for a long time was a lonely and somewhat mocked figure. I may well have even expressed some incredulity myself.
And yet, here we are, just over 2 hours before the exit poll and we are all @Heatheners now.
Saw what coming? We don't know what is coming!
i don't wish to take any credit from @Heathener but was she really first in predicting a Tory wipe out? If so, fair enough, and she should take a bow
My applause would go to the PBer who said "Hartlepool is Peak Tory, all downhill from here", was it @Foxy? Someone else?
Anyway they were bang on. Kudos
Heathener has undoubtedly been the most consistent poster calling Torymageddon from way out. She also rightly noted that 2019 was a distorted baseline. But a few of us were on the bus with her. It’s been obvious for a while that Brexit has gone down very badly in the home counties.
On the day before Farage announced he was returning, I managed to lay 0 reform seats, for evens.
0 reform seats is now 26 on Betfair.
Huge, huge turnaround. And I remember many in May and early June were tipping Reform 0 seats as value - I really hope some of you aren’t very exposed on it if so
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
ITV were really good last time, aside from Peston.
Problem is in Scotland we get STV which is strictly amateur hour. I remember the last time we got the UK ITV on the internet and put it on the TV. It was excellent. Tonight I am stuck in an hotel in Glasgow so BBC it will probably have to be.
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
We should have done a PB election night special.
TSE to host.
Hyufd doing the polls.
Nick Palmer doing the analysis.
RCS doing the tech.
Me doing the awesome puns.
Leon the roving reporter, clearly a bit sozzled and trying to be down with the youth at whatever gathering he's reporting from
Can I bagsy drawing some maps?
I'm crap at writing but I've wondered if some random GIS output might make the odd article, from transport to other sillyness like 'distance to the nearest Waitrose'.
Anyone got any suggestions?
Of course, if the whole country is a sea of red, there's not going to be much scope for any geographical amusements...
I would like there to be a map like the ones on 70s and 80s weather forecasts, with the magnetic shapes that don't always quite stick properly. And there would be a complete set of shapes in all possible party colours for all possible constituencies, which would be put in place as the results came in.
On much more important matters, my golf lesson this evening seems to have resolved my short putt pull to the left miss which was costing my handicap plenty.
Also where has all this Reform surge chatter come from all of a sudden? Is this like the “Susan Hall is winning in London” chatter? Do we actually have anything to suggest this rather than a couple of posts suggesting high turnout?
My question too. I'm nibbling bets against Reform in the feeling that it's jitters/hopes from those without info.
Also where has all this Reform surge chatter come from all of a sudden? Is this like the “Susan Hall is winning in London” chatter? Do we actually have anything to suggest this rather than a couple of posts suggesting high turnout?
Fair question. It is hard to see where any reliable information might come from. Tellers for other parties, perhaps, or a misguided Tory GOTV operation (and let's face it, they've got everything else wrong so it fits the pattern) but it is more likely just recirculated rumours.
On much more important matters, my golf lesson this evening seems to have resolved my short putt pull to the left miss which was costing my handicap plenty.
So from passing two polling stations earlier, I would describe turnout as "Slow". Highlight was a spaniel heading down to cast a ballot (or cock a leg) at our local church.
My Millennial colleague was planning on voting after work, as was my barber. Apparently there was a queue to vote in his village this morning.
Tempting fate, I have placed a bottle of fizz in the fridge.
I think it is time to give some serious credit to @Heathener. She saw this coming a long time before anyone else and for a long time was a lonely and somewhat mocked figure. I may well have even expressed some incredulity myself.
And yet, here we are, just over 2 hours before the exit poll and we are all @Heatheners now.
Saw what coming? We don't know what is coming!
i don't wish to take any credit from @Heathener but was she really first in predicting a Tory wipe out? If so, fair enough, and she should take a bow
My applause would go to the PBer who said "Hartlepool is Peak Tory, all downhill from here", was it @Foxy? Someone else?
Anyway they were bang on. Kudos
Heathener has undoubtedly been the most consistent poster calling Torymageddon from way out. She also rightly noted that 2019 was a distorted baseline. But a few of us were on the bus with her. It’s been obvious for a while that Brexit has gone down very badly in the home counties.
Every government elected before 2022 is unpopular, pretty much anywhere in the world, as their populations have had to deal with wages rising meaningfully less than prices.
Those elected since have at least been able to blame their predecessors.
Northern Lass @northerness How are you hearing that when it's a criminal offence to release or publish statements on exit polls - or that can be interpreted to be based on exit polls or actual polling station voting - prior to 10pm.
This is just gossip from friends or online chatter then?
Back from two knocking-up stints (around 3 hours in total) in deepest Surrey and boy, it’s grimmer like wot I have never seen before in 40 years. No rudeness whatever, only polite but emphatic repudiation.
Had a whale of a time chatting to a lovely LibDem teller - we were both doing the 7.00am - 9.00am slot and took a selfie together at the end. There’s a camaraderie among us hacks.
Also where has all this Reform surge chatter come from all of a sudden? Is this like the “Susan Hall is winning in London” chatter? Do we actually have anything to suggest this rather than a couple of posts suggesting high turnout?
Its speculation! But it goes like this: Item: a surge in voting at teatime Hypothesis: must be people coming home from work Scenarios: 1) Its the undecided flocking Tory at the last minute 2) Its the tactical voters who have been waiting to see which way their seat is swaying before deciding 3) Its White van man coming home and rushing out to vote for Nigel
And then applying rationale as to what it may be. Would be surprised if its 1)
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
ITV were really good last time, aside from Peston.
Problem is in Scotland we get STV which is strictly amateur hour. I remember the last time we got the UK ITV on the internet and put it on the TV. It was excellent. Tonight I am stuck in an hotel in Glasgow so BBC it will probably have to be.
They have STV in Northern Ireland as well, and I think it's a much better system than FPTP.
Also where has all this Reform surge chatter come from all of a sudden? Is this like the “Susan Hall is winning in London” chatter? Do we actually have anything to suggest this rather than a couple of posts suggesting high turnout?
My question too. I'm nibbling bets against Reform in the feeling that it's jitters/hopes from those without info.
Small nibbles, mind.
if they are double figures in seats, they are going to be a very strong second in votes... I think I am a bit sceptical about that.
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
We should have done a PB election night special.
TSE to host.
Hyufd doing the polls.
Nick Palmer doing the analysis.
RCS doing the tech.
Me doing the awesome puns.
Leon the roving reporter, clearly a bit sozzled and trying to be down with the youth at whatever gathering he's reporting from
Can I bagsy drawing some maps?
I'm crap at writing but I've wondered if some random GIS output might make the odd article, from transport to other sillyness like 'distance to the nearest Waitrose'.
Anyone got any suggestions?
Of course, if the whole country is a sea of red, there's not going to be much scope for any geographical amusements...
I would like there to be a map like the ones on 70s and 80s weather forecasts, with the magnetic shapes that don't always quite stick properly. And there would be a complete set of shapes in all possible party colours for all possible constituencies, which would be put in place as the results came in.
On much more important matters, my golf lesson this evening seems to have resolved my short putt pull to the left miss which was costing my handicap plenty.
I had a golf lesson this morning! I’ve only just started and having conquered all the par-3 courses East Kent has to offer I was working on my driver to take the step up to big boy golf.
On much more important matters, my golf lesson this evening seems to have resolved my short putt pull to the left miss which was costing my handicap plenty.
I had a golf lesson this morning! I’ve only just started and having conquered all the par-3 courses East Kent has to offer I was working on my driver to take the step up to big boy golf.
Are you extending his duties so he will caddy for you?
Northern Lass @northerness How are you hearing that when it's a criminal offence to release or publish statements on exit polls - or that can be interpreted to be based on exit polls or actual polling station voting - prior to 10pm.
This is just gossip from friends or online chatter then?
In fairness to Vine (and I hate to be fair to her but will just this once) I don't think she claimed to be publishing an exit poll. To the extent it's based on anything, it'll be Tory friends glumly telling her it's been a tough day in normally safe seats.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Scary times.
I plan for the worst but hope for the best.
Which isn't ideal when you're trying to bet on this election.
I’m 62. The Tories have completely dominated my adult life politically. There was the Blair intromission but he never really looked to change the status quo.
The idea that they might not be around anymore, like the SDP of my youth, is quite startling. Anything less than 120 and they are gone for good.
When the old-style Liberal Party lost their 'last' election was it obvious at the time? I'm not up in GE history.
Of the three factions into which the Liberal Party had split, each with a tranche of MPs, one allied with the Tories and kept its separate ‘National Liberal’ identity for a surprisingly long time (Michael Heseltine first stood as one) before eventually disappearing into the Tory party. The other two eventually got their act together, but found that the fast-moving history of the 1930s and 40s had passed them by, and the party only survived during and immediately after the war with a tiny handful of seats, and even some of those relied on pacts with other parties not standing against them.
The 1962 Orpington by-election win came out of the blue and was a small earthquake that set in train the long slow recovery, leading eventually to the opportunity and turmoil of the Labour split and the Alliance years. They were lucky in Grimond, Thorpe and Steel to have a series of dynamic capable leaders, despite the tiny size of the parliamentary party, each in their different way well suited to the emerging media age. Grimond laid the intellectual foundation for the recovery, making the party relevant for the times, and drawing into the party a lot of people who later became prominent, internally or externally. Thorpe was an excellent publicist who brought the party to wider attention (eventually in ways rather less helpful), and Steel was a solid leader with a good media persona and the judgement to lay the foundations for the eventual merger that became the LibDems.
Thanks, interesting. The first politician I was ever really aware of was David Penhaligon.
On much more important matters, my golf lesson this evening seems to have resolved my short putt pull to the left miss which was costing my handicap plenty.
I had a golf lesson this morning! I’ve only just started and having conquered all the par-3 courses East Kent has to offer I was working on my driver to take the step up to big boy golf.
Are you extending his duties so he will caddy for you?
One image of the day: my view on the way to the polling station. @ManchesterKurt may know where I am!
You are abut 300m from my house, go over the bridge, houses on the right after the offices opposite Waverley Rd.
You would probably recognise me.
I don't own a car and walk Dane Rd a lot on my way to Chorlton Golf Club, always wearing shorts, normally a bucket hat or sometimes a Santa Hat, no matter what the time of year.
Northern Lass @northerness How are you hearing that when it's a criminal offence to release or publish statements on exit polls - or that can be interpreted to be based on exit polls or actual polling station voting - prior to 10pm.
This is just gossip from friends or online chatter then?
In fairness to Vine (and I hate to be fair to her but will just this once) I don't think she claimed to be publishing an exit poll. To the extent it's based on anything, it'll be Tory friends glumly telling her it's been a tough day in normally safe seats.
On much more important matters, my golf lesson this evening seems to have resolved my short putt pull to the left miss which was costing my handicap plenty.
I had a golf lesson this morning! I’ve only just started and having conquered all the par-3 courses East Kent has to offer I was working on my driver to take the step up to big boy golf.
Are you extending his duties so he will caddy for you?
Reading the site, it feels like I have called every bet wrong except Farage winning in Clacton :-(
Welcome back. Nice to see some old names returning. It's like a Gathering of the Clans: General Election Night on PB
Old friends are reunited, ancient enemies leave their guns at the door and embrace, long estranged brothers share a horn of mead as they wait for the exit poll
Also where has all this Reform surge chatter come from all of a sudden? Is this like the “Susan Hall is winning in London” chatter? Do we actually have anything to suggest this rather than a couple of posts suggesting high turnout?
Its speculation! But it goes like this: Item: a surge in voting at teatime Hypothesis: must be people coming home from work Scenarios: 1) Its the undecided flocking Tory at the last minute 2) Its the tactical voters who have been waiting to see which way their seat is swaying before deciding 3) Its White van man coming home and rushing out to vote for Nigel
And then applying rationale as to what it may be. Would be surprised if its 1)
Since we're filling the time with pointless speculation, I have a theory.
Most Con voters, wavering or otherwise, are likely to be elderly, and they're not going to suddenly decide to go out en masse at teatime.
I therefore agree, it's not (1). Folk coming back from work will be joining the queue to kick the Tories while they're down, to make sure they stay there.
Comments
As for what I said, if you will show me how my statement about their status is not one of fact I'll reconsider my position.
Exotic Labour and Reform gains in some exceedingly Tory places are not out of the question.
*When did people start calling it the GOP? Pretty much however you calculate it, it's a much younger party than the Dems.
No surprise, I know, but I’m hearing MAHOOSIVE Labour majority…
Last edited
8:03 PM · Jul 4, 2024
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https://x.com/WestminsterWAG/status/1808939743867998706
They can't take our money and fuck us over any more.
They’re already missing postal voters but evening voters too?
It’s not exactly hard for someone to predict a big Labour majority is it?
Everyone knows it's Barchester North West.
Is this how left wingers felt the last few elections?
I've just done a Leon and spilled wine all over myself.
Going to the same geographical locations each time minimises the probability of error when computing all the swings, too.
I'm crap at writing but I've wondered if some random GIS output might make the odd article, from transport to other sillyness like 'distance to the nearest Waitrose'.
Anyone got any suggestions?
Of course, if the whole country is a sea of red, there's not going to be much scope for any geographical amusements...
Mind you, she married Michael Gove, so maybe that ship has sailed.
Conservatives to survive to be official opposition
SNP to get smashed
Corbyn to lose
Galloway to lose
Farage to lose
Starmer to turn out to be a decent prime minister
For Yonder, formerly known as Populus.
It would be nice to see the Toad Faced One lose in Clacton though.
To me it looks like voters whose “first” election was 1997 or after (born 1975 onwards) seem to consistently vote Conservative less than those older than them
The Tory voter age difference comes up a lot but not sure I’ve seen it mentioned how well it seems to line up with 1997
Can’t be bothered to speculate why but makes you wonder if it’s still possible for the blues to reach out to them and what that would look like
I don’t think it’s labour loyalty either as that seems to ebb and flow a bit more
Which if you’re convinced they’re only winning 3 or 4 at best, is stonking value.
Me personally, I will not be taking it, since I think they might actually do surprisingly well and pick up 10-15 seats.
https://x.com/softleftlabour/status/1808844796116582743?s=46
0 reform seats is now 26 on Betfair.
Huge, huge turnaround. And I remember many in May and early June were tipping Reform 0 seats as value - I really hope some of you aren’t very exposed on it if so
Scenes.
Small nibbles, mind.
He said it was that I was shit at golf.
My Millennial colleague was planning on voting after work, as was my barber. Apparently there was a queue to vote in his village this morning.
Tempting fate, I have placed a bottle of fizz in the fridge.
Those elected since have at least been able to blame their predecessors.
Northern Lass
@northerness
How are you hearing that when it's a criminal offence to release or publish statements on exit polls - or that can be interpreted to be based on exit polls or actual polling station voting - prior to 10pm.
This is just gossip from friends or online chatter then?
It has to go from Professor Curtice’s team to the news broadcasters who, in turn, have to prepare their presentations.
Someone in the chain might have the potential to leak it?
Had a whale of a time chatting to a lovely LibDem teller - we were both doing the 7.00am - 9.00am slot and took a selfie together at the end. There’s a camaraderie among us hacks.
Item: a surge in voting at teatime
Hypothesis: must be people coming home from work
Scenarios:
1) Its the undecided flocking Tory at the last minute
2) Its the tactical voters who have been waiting to see which way their seat is swaying before deciding
3) Its White van man coming home and rushing out to vote for Nigel
And then applying rationale as to what it may be. Would be surprised if its 1)
Oh, the TV station? Try ITV player.
Lots of anecdote, lots of gambling, lots of ‘I’m hearing’ - but I don’t see evidence.
You would probably recognise me.
I don't own a car and walk Dane Rd a lot on my way to Chorlton Golf Club, always wearing shorts, normally a bucket hat or sometimes a Santa Hat, no matter what the time of year.
Old friends are reunited, ancient enemies leave their guns at the door and embrace, long estranged brothers share a horn of mead as they wait for the exit poll
Most Con voters, wavering or otherwise, are likely to be elderly, and they're not going to suddenly decide to go out en masse at teatime.
I therefore agree, it's not (1). Folk coming back from work will be joining the queue to kick the Tories while they're down, to make sure they stay there.