Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback. I don’t know if it’s any good though.
Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.
I was just considering that Petain book! Thanks - I’ll check the politics one
If you need a biography of Napoleon I thoroughly recommend Zamoyski. Smart and evocative and full of juicy stories
I read a fantastic book about the myth of the French Resistance, but I can't remember what it was called.
Kochanski’s recent European overview of wartime resistance is a good, authoritative read, covering France thoroughly as well as Italy, Poland, Norway and Yugoslavia, among others. Some fascinating nuggets in there. The story of the disastrous British espionage in the Netherlands was a new one for me.
I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.
I wasn't on PB for that thread but the election petition stuff strikes me as complete twaddle. Election petitions (outside the area of misconduct by the winning candidate) have succeeded due to obvious counting/transcription errors and for wrongful exclusion or inclusion of votes where, quantifiably, the impact on the result is clear. An error in sending out postal votes simply wouldn't fall into that.
Returning officers can run elections more or less well... unless it's obvious how it would have affected the result, the courts are incredibly reluctant to intervene and just aren't going to uphold the petition. In this case, even less so as evidence tends to suggest postal votes tend to favour the Tories.
The only way this could affect Badenoch, realistically, is if she narrowly lost on the night when a few more postal votes might have helped her - which is possible at the very worst end of some MRPs, but highly unlikely.
Is it not possible taht she wins by a few hundred votes and her opponent makes the protest and forces the petition?
The petition would have virtually no chance of success for the reasons I've said, and she'd remain an MP unless and until it was successful.
The courts just aren't going to uphold an election petition for errors by the returning officer (with no misconduct by the elected member) unless the effect of that error is clear and obvious, which it just can't be in these circumstances. There is a long history of election petitions and the position is clear. No election is perfectly run (indeed, some returning officers are negligent), and some are very close. That's not enough to uphold an election petition unless it is wholly clear that it changed the result.
It's journos not knowing the law and getting carried away.
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
criticise yes, but not abuse him or even threaten assault, or even use anti-terrorism law to shut him up.
But he DOES abuse people and threaten assault. He also goes around people’s houses and shouts at their families with his stupid foghorn
He’s not a protestor he’s a public nuisance and I’m amazed he hasn’t been arrested
In other news, the press haven’t got a Southgate team selection wrong yet this tourny. And they’re saying Gal is going with a back 3, a pair of wing-“backs” from some mix of Trent, Saka or Trippier, and then Hey Jude and Foden in front of Rice and Kobbie. Could be quite a lovely match finally if so
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
criticise yes, but not abuse him or even threaten assault, or even use anti-terrorism law to shut him up.
What if he's causing a public nuisance?
one person's view of a public nuisance is not the same as another....
that's democracy...
Or, there is the actual law on public nuisance. To wit:
“According to the Act, a person commits the offense of public nuisance if they:
Do an act, or Omit to do an act that they are required to do by law
And as a result:
The person endangers the life, health, property, or comfort of the public, or Obstructs the public in the exercise or enjoyment of rights common to all members of the public”
By constantly interrupting political speeches announcement and interviews - sometimes making them inaudible for the whole country - Bray obstructs the public in the exercise of democracy as is our common right
I wouldn’t put him in jail but I’d land him with an off putting fine (as the law allows)
Proof that lawyers are awesome. The rest of us pay their exorbitant fees in order to keep them in the life to which they are accustomed.
Well, they are trained to get up on theirt hind legs and come out with b-, er, stuff they don't necessarily believe. At least in the adversarial system. And they could be and still on occasion can be a MP in the spare time from being a lawyer (or so it sometimes seems even now).
(Is this situation seen also in states which have an inquisitorial system?)
Edit: Point of order. There are different kinds of lawyers. Advocates/barristers and writers/solicitors. Does the relation hold for one kind rather than another?
And of course the people who *actually* know something about something are carefully demarcated from the lawyers. Aka expert witnesses.
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
criticise yes, but not abuse him or even threaten assault, or even use anti-terrorism law to shut him up.
What if he's causing a public nuisance?
one person's view of a public nuisance is not the same as another....
that's democracy...
Or, there is the actual law on public nuisance. To wit:
“According to the Act, a person commits the offense of public nuisance if they:
Do an act, or Omit to do an act that they are required to do by law
And as a result:
The person endangers the life, health, property, or comfort of the public, or Obstructs the public in the exercise or enjoyment of rights common to all members of the public”
By constantly interrupting political speeches announcement and interviews - sometimes making them inaudible for the whole country - Bray obstructs the public in the exercise of democracy as is our common right
I wouldn’t put him in jail but I’d land him with an off putting fine (as the law allows)
His amplifiers have been seized and he may be prosecuted.
All I said is I hope he soda off. I hardly called for him to be sent to a gulag.
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.
Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.
Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.
After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
After 36 years of shift working and 24/7 on call I can sleep anywhere, anytime. Helicopters are great - an hour or two's enforced napping in a rubber suit. Trains, although the fear of missing my stop causes some sleep issues. Cars as my wife normally drives and I doze.
Though oddly I never sleep more than about 5 hours in any 24. my normal non-travelling sleep pattern is 2am to 6 or 7 am.
Okay, anyone who can sleep in helicopters is officially mad. You must have the world’s best noise-cancelling headphones.
Just about to watch a YouTube video, Eagles performing hotel California at their R&R hall of fame inductions as you all asked, and an ad came up from the man whose Dad was a toolmaker entreating me to vote labour.
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
criticise yes, but not abuse him or even threaten assault, or even use anti-terrorism law to shut him up.
What if he's causing a public nuisance?
one person's view of a public nuisance is not the same as another....
that's democracy...
Or, there is the actual law on public nuisance. To wit:
“According to the Act, a person commits the offense of public nuisance if they:
Do an act, or Omit to do an act that they are required to do by law
And as a result:
The person endangers the life, health, property, or comfort of the public, or Obstructs the public in the exercise or enjoyment of rights common to all members of the public”
By constantly interrupting political speeches announcement and interviews - sometimes making them inaudible for the whole country - Bray obstructs the public in the exercise of democracy as is our common right
I wouldn’t put him in jail but I’d land him with an off putting fine (as the law allows)
His amplifiers have been seized and he may be prosecuted.
All I said is I hope he soda off. I hardly called for him to be sent to a gulag.
Yes. Let’s hope this is his last hurrah
Its obnoxious and monotonous and by this point he’s just a tragic nutter
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)"
The conventional polls and the MRPs all agree on the broad direction of travel, but there's still a fair degree of variation. The Sky/YouGov MRP, whilst still disastrous for the Tories, gives them 34 more seats than this. They also appear to be finding it hard getting to grips with the Reform seat count, but that's hardly surprising: whether that group consists of Farage or has a dozen members will likely depend on the outcomes of a lot of three way marginals.
Will be interesting to see who's done the best job come tomorrow morning.
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.
Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.
Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.
After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
After 36 years of shift working and 24/7 on call I can sleep anywhere, anytime. Helicopters are great - an hour or two's enforced napping in a rubber suit. Trains, although the fear of missing my stop causes some sleep issues. Cars as my wife normally drives and I doze.
Though oddly I never sleep more than about 5 hours in any 24. my normal non-travelling sleep pattern is 2am to 6 or 7 am.
Okay, anyone who can sleep in helicopters is officially mad. You must have the world’s best noise-cancelling headphones.
Not allowed them. We wear the provided ear defenders and ear plugs as well. The vibration is a bigger issue but once you get used to it it is not so bad. A few yeasr ago I worked out I had done somewhere north of 750 chopper flights.
Labour candidates are tweeting in a similar manner. I’m not sure how helpful it is to be honest.
Labour still has the landing page of the Mail Online covered with the Change will only happen if you vote for it meme, so I don't think they'll be remotely bothered about Sunak's tweeting.
Does the 12 year old running Sunak's twitter ready not know how elections work? The size of the majority doesn't make the parliamentary term longer.
You have to remember that those are folk who claim that most SNP governments - minority administrations - have been one-party states. Makes you wonder what they'd call (most of) the last 14 years.
Anything much happening here today? Lot of comments for a Thursday.
2nd round of the Iranian Presidential election tomorrow, might be quite interesting with the Reformist being up 44-40 from the first round. Other than that, can't think of much.
Voted a couple of hours ago here in Ilford North, and it seemed really quiet. Pretty certain SKY news were outside my polling station in the morning (the caption just called it "East London"), but they had long gone by the time I turned up!
This is pretty sound on lawyers, but TSE is wrong to suggest that all great lawyers have to be quick on their feet. Barristers and others who centre on court appearance are indeed so - and a mighty bunch they are too. But there is a unsung body of lawyers, mostly solicitors but barristers also, who are still essentially characters out of Dickens who spend their time thinking about strict settlements made with regard to the heirs of Lord Emsworth in 1345 and whether cattle taken in withernam are irreplevisable. They are mostly slow on their feet, take their time over lunch and Lincoln's Inn would not be the same without them.
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
criticise yes, but not abuse him or even threaten assault, or even use anti-terrorism law to shut him up.
What if he's causing a public nuisance?
one person's view of a public nuisance is not the same as another....
that's democracy...
Or, there is the actual law on public nuisance. To wit:
“According to the Act, a person commits the offense of public nuisance if they:
Do an act, or Omit to do an act that they are required to do by law
And as a result:
The person endangers the life, health, property, or comfort of the public, or Obstructs the public in the exercise or enjoyment of rights common to all members of the public”
By constantly interrupting political speeches announcement and interviews - sometimes making them inaudible for the whole country - Bray obstructs the public in the exercise of democracy as is our common right
I wouldn’t put him in jail but I’d land him with an off putting fine (as the law allows)
His amplifiers have been seized and he may be prosecuted.
All I said is I hope he soda off. I hardly called for him to be sent to a gulag.
Yes. Let’s hope this is his last hurrah
Its obnoxious and monotonous and by this point he’s just a tragic nutter
Have ScottP and Steve Bray ever been seen in the same room?
"Comrades, this is your captain. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honored to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our Party's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — the Conservative Party! For 100 years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today, the game is different. We have the advantage, and it reminds me of the heady days of the Welfare State and Clement Attlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our nationalisations. Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our supermajority. The order is: engage the Starmer Drive!
"Comrades, our own Unionised Left-wing don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our extremists behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct austerity debates. Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our own laughter, while we sail to Westminster, where the sun is warm, and so is the... comradeship.
This is pretty sound on lawyers, but TSE is wrong to suggest that all great lawyers have to be quick on their feet. Barristers and others who centre on court appearance are indeed so - and a mighty bunch they are too. But there is a unsung body of lawyers, mostly solicitors but barristers also, who are still essentially characters out of Dickens who spend their time thinking about strict settlements made with regard to the heirs of Lord Emsworth in 1345 and whether cattle taken in withernam are irreplevisable. They are mostly slow on their feet, take their time over lunch and Lincoln's Inn would not be the same without them.
As we’ve seen at the Post Office Inquiry, there’s a long line of internal counsel, internal prosecutors, internal investigators, and many layers of management lawyers above them, all of whom have all completely failed to live up to the standards expected of their profession.
Although we’ve also seen Jason Beer KC, who should be Sir Jason as soon as the inquiry is complete.
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)"
The conventional polls and the MRPs all agree on the broad direction of travel, but there's still a fair degree of variation. The Sky/YouGov MRP, whilst still disastrous for the Tories, gives them 34 more seats than this. They also appear to be finding it hard getting to grips with the Reform seat count, but that's hardly surprising: whether that group consists of Farage or has a dozen members will likely depend on the outcomes of a lot of three way marginals.
Will be interesting to see who's done the best job come tomorrow morning.
The demographic models inevitably move you toward proportional swing, since the changes within each demographic subset are applied proportional to the numbers of that demographic in each seat. Whereas the traditional seat models still begin with the uniform swing. In the past, swings have tended towards uniform, for reasons not fully understood, but the bigger the swing is, the more proportional it has to be by definition.
Proportional swing takes the Tories down more in the seats they hold, hence they lose a lot more seats.
My feeling is that the swing is more likely to be proportional than uniform - but of course nobody knows. If any of the media outlets do and explain some thoughtful analysis of the early results’ swings, working out how proportional it is will be the key to knowing whether the Tories will land at the lower or upper end of the forecasts.
My general election voting record now looks like this:
1997 - Lab
2001 - Didn't vote
2005 - Lib-Dem
2010 - Con
2015 - Con
2017 - Con
2019 - Con
2024... Lab
In all sincerity, you don't have to share your voting record if you don't want to
I'm amazed that so many of you have such good memories for this. I'm either uncertain or clueless as to what way I voted in every election before 2019.
From an interesting Commons Library briefing I was surprised to see the number of lawyers in the House of Commons has reduced from 117 in the 1951-55 Parliament (93 Barristers and 24 Solicitors) to 89 in the 2015-17 Parliament (38 Barristers and 51 Solicitors). There were still 7 former miners in the 2015-17 Parliament which seems quite high.
So voted. (Rural part of Grantham and Bourne) In the end I went for an Independent. Same effect as spoiling vote I suppose but if it helps prevent them losing their deposit then that is my good deed for the day.
I won't mention what wife and daughter voted until I have checked they are okay with that. (Actually wife just came in and gave me permission - SDP)
Lady at the polling station complemented me on how much weight I had lost compared to my passport photo which cheered me up and might have been one reason I decided to be kind to an Independent. Yes I am apparently that shallow
Asked about turnout (there was no one else at the polling station when we voted). The answer was it was better than the previous 2 elections they had worked on, but given they would have been the Police Commissioner election in May and local elections a couple of years ago I am not sure that tells us much.
With thanks to those who commented on my draft list I now have my definitive top ten contemptibles for election night. I will be celebrating each one of them losing with a dram of Laphroaig (double for Farage). I will be disappointed with anything less than seven. So here goes:
Nigel Farage, Clacton George Galloway, Rochdale Jeremy Corbyn, Islington North Lee Anderson, Ashfield Akhmed Yakoob, Birmingham Ladywood Carla Denyer, Bristol Central Fazia Shaheen, Chingford and Woodford Green Liz Truss, South West Norfolk Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View Jacob Rees-Mogg, North East Somerset and Hanham
Sunak had been on the draft list, but thinking about it that was because of how historic and unprecedented such a loss would be - can't remember who it was who queried his inclusion, but thank you anyway. I don't despise him as I do these others - and besides the evidence of some swingback in the last few days should be enough for him to survive.
Thanks also to those of you who rightly suggested Mercer and Mogg.
Anything much happening here today? Lot of comments for a Thursday.
2nd round of the Iranian Presidential election tomorrow, might be quite interesting with the Reformist being up 44-40 from the first round. Other than that, can't think of much.
Do they too use stubby pencils tied to a piece of string? And can Count Binface or the father of a dead soldier stand on a school stage next to the prime minister making a speech denouncing him?
1992: Too Young. Just. And therefore didn't get to vote for OGH. 1997: Called away on work trip to Berlin and didn't get to vote. 2001: On work trip to the US and didn't get to vote. 2005: Did get to vote! 2010: Also voted! 2015: Last minute work trip. Didn't vote. 2016 referendum: Voted! 2017: Moved to America, haven't voted since.
This is pretty sound on lawyers, but TSE is wrong to suggest that all great lawyers have to be quick on their feet. Barristers and others who centre on court appearance are indeed so - and a mighty bunch they are too. But there is a unsung body of lawyers, mostly solicitors but barristers also, who are still essentially characters out of Dickens who spend their time thinking about strict settlements made with regard to the heirs of Lord Emsworth in 1345 and whether cattle taken in withernam are irreplevisable. They are mostly slow on their feet, take their time over lunch and Lincoln's Inn would not be the same without them.
As we’ve seen at the Post Office Inquiry, there’s a long line of internal counsel, internal prosecutors, internal investigators, and many layers of management lawyers above them, all of whom have all completely failed to live up to the standards expected of their profession.
Although we’ve also seen Jason Beer KC, who should be Sir Jason as soon as the inquiry is complete.
Failing upwards....we have to stop this trend.
Look at Mrs MET, Mr Natwest, etc....everything they have touched has been a shit show. Howard Davies literally went from f##k up to f##k up. FSA, LSE, Natwest.
Voted a couple of hours ago here in Ilford North, and it seemed really quiet. Pretty certain SKY news were outside my polling station in the morning (the caption just called it "East London"), but they had long gone by the time I turned up!
Middle of the day voting in Ilford North was always pretty dead, such that telling was hardly worthwhile. It will pick up with the school run and the evening rush as the commuters flood back on the tube.
1992: Too Young. Just. And therefore didn't get to vote for OGH. 1997: Called away on work trip to Berlin and didn't get to vote. 2001: On work trip to the US and didn't get to vote. 2005: Did get to vote! 2010: Also voted! 2015: Last minute work trip. Didn't vote. 2016 referendum: Voted! 2017: Moved to America, haven't voted since.
Basically, I'm not very good at this voting lark.
1997: voted 2001: voted 2005: away on a work trip and didn’t vote 2010: voted 2015: living abroad and missed the deadline 2017: voted 2019: f***ed-up up a proxy vote 2024 didn’t bother.
21:59. Yorkshire. Rishi Sunak is speaking to some journalists [who really wish they were at the Labour presser instead]
"The important thing is that a vote for Labour is a mandate for higher taxes. That's what's at stake here. Labour will raise taxes. You will pay higher taxes under Labour. Labour is the party of high tax and their high tax plans mean you will be paying higher taxes. If you don't want higher taxes, you must not give a mandate to high tax Labour, the party of high tax." [It's now 22:00. Rishi's phone buzzes. It's the exit poll. Labour have a huge majority]
"I'm disappointed by the outcome but it's important to say that this result is in no way a mandate for them to raise taxes"
Rishi's wife will pay higher taxes is what he means.
21:59. Yorkshire. Rishi Sunak is speaking to some journalists [who really wish they were at the Labour presser instead]
"The important thing is that a vote for Labour is a mandate for higher taxes. That's what's at stake here. Labour will raise taxes. You will pay higher taxes under Labour. Labour is the party of high tax and their high tax plans mean you will be paying higher taxes. If you don't want higher taxes, you must not give a mandate to high tax Labour, the party of high tax." [It's now 22:00. Rishi's phone buzzes. It's the exit poll. Labour have a huge majority]
"I'm disappointed by the outcome but it's important to say that this result is in no way a mandate for them to raise taxes"
Rishi's wife will pay higher taxes is what he means.
Rishi’s wife will never be paying higher taxes - she’ll be formally living somewhere else by next week.
1992: Too Young. Just. And therefore didn't get to vote for OGH. 1997: Called away on work trip to Berlin and didn't get to vote. 2001: On work trip to the US and didn't get to vote. 2005: Did get to vote! 2010: Also voted! 2015: Last minute work trip. Didn't vote. 2016 referendum: Voted! 2017: Moved to America, haven't voted since.
Basically, I'm not very good at this voting lark.
1997: voted 2001: voted 2005: away on a work trip and didn’t vote 2010: voted 2015: living abroad and missed the deadline 2017: voted 2019: f***ed-up up a proxy vote 2024 didn’t bother.
Ah yes, I was so determined to vote in the Referendum that I got proxy votes for my wife and I, as I thought we would both be away.
It turned out that only she ended up being away, so I voted for her. Of course, our votes counteracted each other, so I felt a bit of a tit putting two bits of paper in the ballot box with crosses in different boxes. But it was important I did my duty.
I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.
I wasn't on PB for that thread but the election petition stuff strikes me as complete twaddle. Election petitions (outside the area of misconduct by the winning candidate) have succeeded due to obvious counting/transcription errors and for wrongful exclusion or inclusion of votes where, quantifiably, the impact on the result is clear. An error in sending out postal votes simply wouldn't fall into that.
Returning officers can run elections more or less well... unless it's obvious how it would have affected the result, the courts are incredibly reluctant to intervene and just aren't going to uphold the petition. In this case, even less so as evidence tends to suggest postal votes tend to favour the Tories.
The only way this could affect Badenoch, realistically, is if she narrowly lost on the night when a few more postal votes might have helped her - which is possible at the very worst end of some MRPs, but highly unlikely.
Is it not possible taht she wins by a few hundred votes and her opponent makes the protest and forces the petition?
The petition would have virtually no chance of success for the reasons I've said, and she'd remain an MP unless and until it was successful.
The courts just aren't going to uphold an election petition for errors by the returning officer (with no misconduct by the elected member) unless the effect of that error is clear and obvious, which it just can't be in these circumstances. There is a long history of election petitions and the position is clear. No election is perfectly run (indeed, some returning officers are negligent), and some are very close. That's not enough to uphold an election petition unless it is wholly clear that it changed the result.
It's journos not knowing the law and getting carried away.
Cheers for the explanation.
Yes thanks, enjoyed the last line. I see that hasn't stopped Kemi going off on one about the local (non-Tory) councilors rather than the council officers. Even she must know that the local councilors aren't responsible for posting out ballot papers (for very good reason).
With thanks to those who commented on my draft list I now have my definitive top ten contemptibles for election night. I will be celebrating each one of them losing with a dram of Laphroaig (double for Farage). I will be disappointed with anything less than seven. So here goes:
Nigel Farage, Clacton George Galloway, Rochdale Jeremy Corbyn, Islington North Lee Anderson, Ashfield Akhmed Yakoob, Birmingham Ladywood Carla Denyer, Bristol Central Fazia Shaheen, Chingford and Woodford Green Liz Truss, South West Norfolk Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View Jacob Rees-Mogg, North East Somerset and Hanham
Sunak had been on the draft list, but thinking about it that was because of how historic and unprecedented such a loss would be - can't remember who it was who queried his inclusion, but thank you anyway. I don't despise him as I do these others - and besides the evidence of some swingback in the last few days should be enough for him to survive.
Thanks also to those of you who rightly suggested Mercer and Mogg.
The greater punishment for Sunak is being re-elected and not even being LOTO.
LOL. Thanks for that. I had forgotten that minute after the exit poll and the reactions. Really funny to see them again. So many expletives from all sides.
21:59. Yorkshire. Rishi Sunak is speaking to some journalists [who really wish they were at the Labour presser instead]
"The important thing is that a vote for Labour is a mandate for higher taxes. That's what's at stake here. Labour will raise taxes. You will pay higher taxes under Labour. Labour is the party of high tax and their high tax plans mean you will be paying higher taxes. If you don't want higher taxes, you must not give a mandate to high tax Labour, the party of high tax." [It's now 22:00. Rishi's phone buzzes. It's the exit poll. Labour have a huge majority]
"I'm disappointed by the outcome but it's important to say that this result is in no way a mandate for them to raise taxes"
Rishi's wife will pay higher taxes is what he means.
Rishi’s wife will never be paying higher taxes - she’ll be formally living somewhere else by next week.
I am sure she will be glad her family finances are not in the spotlight every time her husband's government makes any decision.
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
criticise yes, but not abuse him or even threaten assault, or even use anti-terrorism law to shut him up.
What if he's causing a public nuisance?
one person's view of a public nuisance is not the same as another....
that's democracy...
Or, there is the actual law on public nuisance. To wit:
“According to the Act, a person commits the offense of public nuisance if they:
Do an act, or Omit to do an act that they are required to do by law
And as a result:
The person endangers the life, health, property, or comfort of the public, or Obstructs the public in the exercise or enjoyment of rights common to all members of the public”
By constantly interrupting political speeches announcement and interviews - sometimes making them inaudible for the whole country - Bray obstructs the public in the exercise of democracy as is our common right
I wouldn’t put him in jail but I’d land him with an off putting fine (as the law allows)
His amplifiers have been seized and he may be prosecuted.
All I said is I hope he soda off. I hardly called for him to be sent to a gulag.
Yes. Let’s hope this is his last hurrah
Its obnoxious and monotonous and by this point he’s just a tragic nutter
Conniving rather than tragic, if the allegations are true. I would DM the gossip to you if your profile were not private. Sadly not supported enough to post on the main timeline.
With thanks to those who commented on my draft list I now have my definitive top ten contemptibles for election night. I will be celebrating each one of them losing with a dram of Laphroaig (double for Farage). I will be disappointed with anything less than seven. So here goes:
Nigel Farage, Clacton George Galloway, Rochdale Jeremy Corbyn, Islington North Lee Anderson, Ashfield Akhmed Yakoob, Birmingham Ladywood Carla Denyer, Bristol Central Fazia Shaheen, Chingford and Woodford Green Liz Truss, South West Norfolk Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View Jacob Rees-Mogg, North East Somerset and Hanham
Sunak had been on the draft list, but thinking about it that was because of how historic and unprecedented such a loss would be - can't remember who it was who queried his inclusion, but thank you anyway. I don't despise him as I do these others - and besides the evidence of some swingback in the last few days should be enough for him to survive.
Thanks also to those of you who rightly suggested Mercer and Mogg.
There are a number of those whose loss I would cheer, Galloway most of all.
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.
Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.
Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.
After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
After 36 years of shift working and 24/7 on call I can sleep anywhere, anytime. Helicopters are great - an hour or two's enforced napping in a rubber suit. Trains, although the fear of missing my stop causes some sleep issues. Cars as my wife normally drives and I doze.
Though oddly I never sleep more than about 5 hours in any 24. my normal non-travelling sleep pattern is 2am to 6 or 7 am.
Okay, anyone who can sleep in helicopters is officially mad. You must have the world’s best noise-cancelling headphones.
Not allowed them. We wear the provided ear defenders and ear plugs as well. The vibration is a bigger issue but once you get used to it it is not so bad. A few yeasr ago I worked out I had done somewhere north of 750 chopper flights.
That’s seriously impressive. I reckon I’ve done a couple of hundred commercial flights, and a couple of hundred private flights in Cessnas and gliders. Only two in helicopters though.
With thanks to those who commented on my draft list I now have my definitive top ten contemptibles for election night. I will be celebrating each one of them losing with a dram of Laphroaig (double for Farage). I will be disappointed with anything less than seven. So here goes:
Nigel Farage, Clacton George Galloway, Rochdale Jeremy Corbyn, Islington North Lee Anderson, Ashfield Akhmed Yakoob, Birmingham Ladywood Carla Denyer, Bristol Central Fazia Shaheen, Chingford and Woodford Green Liz Truss, South West Norfolk Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View Jacob Rees-Mogg, North East Somerset and Hanham
Sunak had been on the draft list, but thinking about it that was because of how historic and unprecedented such a loss would be - can't remember who it was who queried his inclusion, but thank you anyway. I don't despise him as I do these others - and besides the evidence of some swingback in the last few days should be enough for him to survive.
Thanks also to those of you who rightly suggested Mercer and Mogg.
There are a number of those whose loss I would cheer, Galloway most of all.
That is a great list, unfortunately I can see more than a few of them winning, 30p Lee, Farage, Mercer and Corbyn amongst them
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)"
The conventional polls and the MRPs all agree on the broad direction of travel, but there's still a fair degree of variation. The Sky/YouGov MRP, whilst still disastrous for the Tories, gives them 34 more seats than this. They also appear to be finding it hard getting to grips with the Reform seat count, but that's hardly surprising: whether that group consists of Farage or has a dozen members will likely depend on the outcomes of a lot of three way marginals.
Will be interesting to see who's done the best job come tomorrow morning.
The demographic models inevitably move you toward proportional swing, since the changes within each demographic subset are applied proportional to the numbers of that demographic in each seat. Whereas the traditional seat models still begin with the uniform swing. In the past, swings have tended towards uniform, for reasons not fully understood, but the bigger the swing is, the more proportional it has to be by definition.
Proportional swing takes the Tories down more in the seats they hold, hence they lose a lot more seats.
My feeling is that the swing is more likely to be proportional than uniform - but of course nobody knows. If any of the media outlets do and explain some thoughtful analysis of the early results’ swings, working out how proportional it is will be the key to knowing whether the Tories will land at the lower or upper end of the forecasts.
Interesting, although I am highly likely to miss any such thoughtful analysis should it occur. Work starts early, so I'll be obliged to try to sleep through most of the fun and games. Will discover if the Sunakocalypse came to pass when my alarm goes off at five.
LOL. Thanks for that. I had forgotten that minute after the exit poll and the reactions. Really funny to see them again. So many expletives from all sides.
They'd kill for the same result now. Being left as the largest party in a hung parliament would be seen as an unebelievable success rather than an epochal failure.
Just been to vote on the way home from work and it was pretty busy, unlike the by-election (when I voted at the same time).
Anyway, Galloway Out, hopefully.
I’m not a fan of tactical voting, but would vote Labour in a heartbeat if Galloway was the opposition. Let’s not turn English politics into Northern Irish politics.
What's the oddest polling station people here have voted at? I once voted in a polling station that was literally someone's front room.
On my bike ride at 11.00 this morning I passed a local village pub (The White Swan, Conington), which is also the polling station. A couple of people were sitting on a bench outside drinking something. And on a drive through rural Bedfordshire, there were polling station signs outside a church and another outside a village hall.
My own polling station is a cricket pavilion. In fact, both the village's cricket pavilions are polling station today, as is what passes for the village hall.
Without revealing my whole record, I have somehow *never* voted for the party I actually support at a GE, either because I was in a swing seat where I had a definite preference between the two parties in contention, or because my party was not on the ballot.
I've voted for them in locals, mayorals and (sniff) Euros though.
21:59. Yorkshire. Rishi Sunak is speaking to some journalists [who really wish they were at the Labour presser instead]
"The important thing is that a vote for Labour is a mandate for higher taxes. That's what's at stake here. Labour will raise taxes. You will pay higher taxes under Labour. Labour is the party of high tax and their high tax plans mean you will be paying higher taxes. If you don't want higher taxes, you must not give a mandate to high tax Labour, the party of high tax." [It's now 22:00. Rishi's phone buzzes. It's the exit poll. Labour have a huge majority]
"I'm disappointed by the outcome but it's important to say that this result is in no way a mandate for them to raise taxes"
Rishi's wife will pay higher taxes is what he means.
Rishi’s wife will never be paying higher taxes - she’ll be formally living somewhere else by next week.
both of them I suspect. If he isn't PM he can become a Non Dom
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I have to hand it to you, Leon. Your planning is exemplary. You should have been in the CCHQ election team!
1992: Too Young. Just. And therefore didn't get to vote for OGH. 1997: Called away on work trip to Berlin and didn't get to vote. 2001: On work trip to the US and didn't get to vote. 2005: Did get to vote! 2010: Also voted! 2015: Last minute work trip. Didn't vote. 2016 referendum: Voted! 2017: Moved to America, haven't voted since.
Basically, I'm not very good at this voting lark.
1997: voted 2001: voted 2005: away on a work trip and didn’t vote 2010: voted 2015: living abroad and missed the deadline 2017: voted 2019: f***ed-up up a proxy vote 2024 didn’t bother.
Ah yes, I was so determined to vote in the Referendum that I got proxy votes for my wife and I, as I thought we would both be away.
It turned out that only she ended up being away, so I voted for her. Of course, our votes counteracted each other, so I felt a bit of a tit putting two bits of paper in the ballot box with crosses in different boxes. But it was important I did my duty.
Yes, the 2016 referendum I got a postal vote, which somehow arrived here on time and was sent back by Fedex rather than the local postal service!
This is pretty sound on lawyers, but TSE is wrong to suggest that all great lawyers have to be quick on their feet. Barristers and others who centre on court appearance are indeed so - and a mighty bunch they are too. But there is a unsung body of lawyers, mostly solicitors but barristers also, who are still essentially characters out of Dickens who spend their time thinking about strict settlements made with regard to the heirs of Lord Emsworth in 1345 and whether cattle taken in withernam are irreplevisable. They are mostly slow on their feet, take their time over lunch and Lincoln's Inn would not be the same without them.
As we’ve seen at the Post Office Inquiry, there’s a long line of internal counsel, internal prosecutors, internal investigators, and many layers of management lawyers above them, all of whom have all completely failed to live up to the standards expected of their profession.
Although we’ve also seen Jason Beer KC, who should be Sir Jason as soon as the inquiry is complete.
Failing upwards....we have to stop this trend.
Look at Mrs MET, Mr Natwest, etc....everything they have touched has been a shit show. Howard Davies literally went from f##k up to f##k up. FSA, LSE, Natwest.
I thought of the Post Office situation when I was reading the story of the British WWII agents in the Netherlands, which I mentioned earlier. Like the German ones in the UK, they were all captured and either turned or impersonated. They’d be sent out with various security precautions - words or formats to use in their early morse messages which they were supposed to use to indicate that they were at liberty - when they (or some German imposter) failed to use them, SOE would radio back things like “you’ve forgotten to use your security code”. As the war went on, the Germans had great fun sending back all sorts of nonsense - which they called Englandspiel - as more and more bits of evidence accumulated back at SOEHQ that there was something dodgy about the Dutch agents, it was always dismissed because the truth was too awful for anyone to face up to. Until eventually what was really a scandal was finally acknowledged.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I haven't been drinking a lot this year, and 2pm is too early to start.
So I'm planning on opening a bottle of California chardonnay at 4pm when I settle down to watch the TV coverage seriously.
I think I've voted every time I could for 61 years. Councils, Referenda, General Elections. The only time I can remember not doing so was when the Returning Officer wouldn't accept my signature on a postal ballot earlier this year. The first vote I cast was in the GE of 1959, when the qualifying age was 21.
Without revealing my whole record, I have somehow *never* voted for the party I actually support at a GE, either because I was in a swing seat where I had a definite preference between the two parties in contention, or because my party was not on the ballot.
I've voted for them in locals, mayorals and (sniff) Euros though.
I have to admit I could never vote for the winner, possibly until today.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I haven't been drinking a lot this year, and 2pm is too early to start.
So I'm planning on opening a bottle of California chardonnay at 4pm when I settle down to watch the TV coverage seriously.
How wil you watch it from California? VPN? Os is BBC America showing it?
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I haven't been drinking a lot this year, and 2pm is too early to start.
So I'm planning on opening a bottle of California chardonnay at 4pm when I settle down to watch the TV coverage seriously.
How wil you watch it from California? VPN? Os is BBC America showing it?
With thanks to those who commented on my draft list I now have my definitive top ten contemptibles for election night. I will be celebrating each one of them losing with a dram of Laphroaig (double for Farage). I will be disappointed with anything less than seven. So here goes:
Nigel Farage, Clacton George Galloway, Rochdale Jeremy Corbyn, Islington North Lee Anderson, Ashfield Akhmed Yakoob, Birmingham Ladywood Carla Denyer, Bristol Central Fazia Shaheen, Chingford and Woodford Green Liz Truss, South West Norfolk Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View Jacob Rees-Mogg, North East Somerset and Hanham
Sunak had been on the draft list, but thinking about it that was because of how historic and unprecedented such a loss would be - can't remember who it was who queried his inclusion, but thank you anyway. I don't despise him as I do these others - and besides the evidence of some swingback in the last few days should be enough for him to survive.
Thanks also to those of you who rightly suggested Mercer and Mogg.
There are a number of those whose loss I would cheer, Galloway most of all.
That is a great list, unfortunately I can see more than a few of them winning, 30p Lee, Farage, Mercer and Corbyn amongst them
Mercer has a 13,000 majority so is probably toast if the polls are anything like accurate. Looks like Farage will get in. Anderson is anyone's guess, that's a complicated seat. Don't fancy Corbyn's chances given that deselected independent challengers don't typically prosper, unless anyone with local knowledge wishes to voice an opinion to the contrary...
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I haven't been drinking a lot this year, and 2pm is too early to start.
So I'm planning on opening a bottle of California chardonnay at 4pm when I settle down to watch the TV coverage seriously.
How wil you watch it from California? VPN? Os is BBC America showing it?
A compliment for the UK: I have always enjoyed the announcements of results, with the candidates standing side by side, with their rosettes, as if they were school children waiting for awards.
It's the lack of excitement and hoopla that I like, as if everyone there was saying we're so good at elections that we don't need to make a big fuss.
(Sadly, something similar doesn't seem practical in the US, because of -- among other things -- scale problems.)
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I haven't been drinking a lot this year, and 2pm is too early to start.
So I'm planning on opening a bottle of California chardonnay at 4pm when I settle down to watch the TV coverage seriously.
How wil you watch it from California? VPN? Os is BBC America showing it?
To be fair the USA is an ideal time zone to watch the election coverage.
LOL. Thanks for that. I had forgotten that minute after the exit poll and the reactions. Really funny to see them again. So many expletives from all sides.
They'd kill for the same result now. Being left as the largest party in a hung parliament would be seen as an unebelievable success rather than an epochal failure.
I reckon right now they would kill to be the second largest party in a hung Parliament to be honest.
Geoffrey Cox. He could not even turn up for a hustings meeting in Torrington neither did he send a deputy, (suspected he was out in the West Indies again)., let alone PMQ's.
Comments
“According to the Act, a person commits the offense of public nuisance if they:
Do an act, or
Omit to do an act that they are required to do by law
And as a result:
The person endangers the life, health, property, or comfort of the public, or
Obstructs the public in the exercise or enjoyment of rights common to all members of the public”
By constantly interrupting political speeches announcement and interviews - sometimes making them inaudible for the whole country - Bray obstructs the public in the exercise of democracy as is our common right
I wouldn’t put him in jail but I’d land him with an off putting fine (as the law allows)
(Is this situation seen also in states which have an inquisitorial system?)
Edit: Point of order. There are different kinds of lawyers. Advocates/barristers and writers/solicitors. Does the relation hold for one kind rather than another?
And of course the people who *actually* know something about something are carefully demarcated from the lawyers. Aka expert witnesses.
Didn’t have the heart to tell him he was in the wrong constituency.
All I said is I hope he soda off. I hardly called for him to be sent to a gulag.
Too late SKS already did.
Lot of comments for a Thursday.
Its obnoxious and monotonous and by this point he’s just a tragic nutter
Will be interesting to see who's done the best job come tomorrow morning.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/1625488/#Comment_1625488
The tories are cooked, aren’t they?
p.s. no need to pour opprobrium on Anna. That’s not the point really.
"Comrades, our own Unionised Left-wing don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our extremists behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct austerity debates. Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our own laughter, while we sail to Westminster, where the sun is warm, and so is the... comradeship.
"A great day, comrades. We sail into history!"
Although we’ve also seen Jason Beer KC, who should be Sir Jason as soon as the inquiry is complete.
Proportional swing takes the Tories down more in the seats they hold, hence they lose a lot more seats.
My feeling is that the swing is more likely to be proportional than uniform - but of course nobody knows. If any of the media outlets do and explain some thoughtful analysis of the early results’ swings, working out how proportional it is will be the key to knowing whether the Tories will land at the lower or upper end of the forecasts.
I won't mention what wife and daughter voted until I have checked they are okay with that. (Actually wife just came in and gave me permission - SDP)
Lady at the polling station complemented me on how much weight I had lost compared to my passport photo which cheered me up and might have been one reason I decided to be kind to an Independent. Yes I am apparently that shallow
Asked about turnout (there was no one else at the polling station when we voted). The answer was it was better than the previous 2 elections they had worked on, but given they would have been the Police Commissioner election in May and local elections a couple of years ago I am not sure that tells us much.
Nigel Farage, Clacton
George Galloway, Rochdale
Jeremy Corbyn, Islington North
Lee Anderson, Ashfield
Akhmed Yakoob, Birmingham Ladywood
Carla Denyer, Bristol Central
Fazia Shaheen, Chingford and Woodford Green
Liz Truss, South West Norfolk
Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View
Jacob Rees-Mogg, North East Somerset and Hanham
Sunak had been on the draft list, but thinking about it that was because of how historic and unprecedented such a loss would be - can't remember who it was who queried his inclusion, but thank you anyway. I don't despise him as I do these others - and besides the evidence of some swingback in the last few days should be enough for him to survive.
Thanks also to those of you who rightly suggested Mercer and Mogg.
1992: Too Young. Just. And therefore didn't get to vote for OGH.
1997: Called away on work trip to Berlin and didn't get to vote.
2001: On work trip to the US and didn't get to vote.
2005: Did get to vote!
2010: Also voted!
2015: Last minute work trip. Didn't vote.
2016 referendum: Voted!
2017: Moved to America, haven't voted since.
Basically, I'm not very good at this voting lark.
Look at Mrs MET, Mr Natwest, etc....everything they have touched has been a shit show. Howard Davies literally went from f##k up to f##k up. FSA, LSE, Natwest.
2001: voted
2005: away on a work trip and didn’t vote
2010: voted
2015: living abroad and missed the deadline
2017: voted
2019: f***ed-up up a proxy vote
2024 didn’t bother.
It turned out that only she ended up being away, so I voted for her. Of course, our votes counteracted each other, so I felt a bit of a tit putting two bits of paper in the ballot box with crosses in different boxes. But it was important I did my duty.
https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1808848243373322488
I see that hasn't stopped Kemi going off on one about the local (non-Tory) councilors rather than the council officers. Even she must know that the local councilors aren't responsible for posting out ballot papers (for very good reason).
Anyway, Galloway Out, hopefully.
He was self-taught, just as he had been a self-taught surveyor, earlier.
(Even though he falls outside the limits set by our host.)
My own polling station is a cricket pavilion. In fact, both the village's cricket pavilions are polling station today, as is what passes for the village hall.
I've voted for them in locals, mayorals and (sniff) Euros though.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I've seen lots of funny men
Some will rob you with a six-gun
Some with a fountain pen
Woodie Guthrie, Ballad of Pretty Boy Floyd
So I'm planning on opening a bottle of California chardonnay at 4pm when I settle down to watch the TV coverage seriously.
I'll be drinking coffee and painting futuristic toy soldiers to pass the time.
The first vote I cast was in the GE of 1959, when the qualifying age was 21.
It's the lack of excitement and hoopla that I like, as if everyone there was saying we're so good at elections that we don't need to make a big fuss.
(Sadly, something similar doesn't seem practical in the US, because of -- among other things -- scale problems.)
Lab around 80 seat majority
Con around 200 seats
Wouldn't mind Lib-Dems getting enough seats to replace SNP as the third party at Westminster.
And of course no seats for Ref and humiliation for Farage in Clacton.
But it's not going to end up like that is it?