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An outlier or harbingers? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,047
edited July 4 in General
An outlier or harbingers? – politicalbetting.com

NEW: ? Labour to Reform switchers on the rise ?Reform UK is now taking 7% of the Labour 2019 vote, a statistically significant increase from 3% last week28th June – 1st July, 2,028 GB adults, @JLPartnersPolls for @restispolitics

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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,092
    First like Labour
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 658
    I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    So basically if the Tories are very lucky they will lose epically badly, not existentially?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,571
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First like Labour

    No.point in being first without a majority...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,092
    squareroot2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First like Labour

    No.point in being first without a majority...
    THREE DAYS TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,605
    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517
    kle4 said:

    So basically if the Tories are very lucky they will lose epically badly, not existentially?

    They'd consider that an absolute win.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517
    edited July 1
    Norris fans on the timeline complaining about being victims of Verstappen’s driving, in full view of Hamilton fans.




    https://x.com/WhingerSpice/status/1807423530591551700
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,196
    The tweet says the Tories are laying the ground to get their vote to return… but they’re on -1 compared to the previous poll, so what does that mean?

    Overall, the vote changes implies others +3.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,503
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Norris fans on the timeline complaining about being victims of Verstappen’s driving, in full view of Hamilton fans.




    https://x.com/WhingerSpice/status/1807423530591551700

    Does that imply both sets of fans are right wing nut jobs?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,196
    squareroot2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First like Labour

    No.point in being first without a majority...
    Given nothing remotely suggests that they won’t get a majority, that’s a fairly moot point.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,650
    On topic - I've called out for absolutely ages that there would be a shift to a harder right party in the red wall. I doubt that it will have any impact at all on the result in places like Hartlepools, but there will be a slug of votes going to Farage and not Starmer.

    Point is for the remaining fan of the blue team, these are not voters you can "bring back home".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,605
    Ed Davey rubber dinghy klaxon:

    https://x.com/itvwestcountry/status/1807798645280100757
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    I still have outside hopes that goober Streeting loses
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    kle4 said:

    So basically if the Tories are very lucky they will lose epically badly, not existentially?

    Matt said that on the evening of May 1st 1997 he drew three cartoons, to cover all eventualities:

    1) Tories lose
    2) Tories lose badly
    3) Tories suffer absolute disaster.

    He noted drily, 'the disaster version was used in all editions.'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Norris fans on the timeline complaining about being victims of Verstappen’s driving, in full view of Hamilton fans.




    https://x.com/WhingerSpice/status/1807423530591551700

    Does that imply both sets of fans are right wing nut jobs?
    No.

    Sir Lewis is woker than Gareth Southgate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517
    bondegezou said:

    The tweet says the Tories are laying the ground to get their vote to return… but they’re on -1 compared to the previous poll, so what does that mean?

    Overall, the vote changes implies others +3.

    If you listen to the podcast where they discuss the poll, there's some pro Tory movement in the supplementaries.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if this has been done to death already but bloody hell, the US Supreme Court has done devastating damage to US democracy and the rule of law.

    Biden should use these new immunities to lock Trump up until after the election. We can argue about whether that is an official act or not afterwards. Thank God we don’t have a real Supreme Court on this country. If you ever wanted evidence of how dangerous a court without a sovereign Parliament can be look no further.

    What would the US House of Commons do about such a ruling?
    Thatcher - Pass an act overruling the Asses and Cocklecarrots.
    Starmer - Genuflect to the Lawyerly unelected Priesthood.

    Liberals and Tory Wets like Sunak. See Starmer for further details.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,196
    williamglenn said:

    Ed Davey rubber dinghy klaxon:

    https://x.com/itvwestcountry/status/1807798645280100757

    That’s an inflatable doughnut, not a dinghy. No bottom. Quite different.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if this has been done to death already but bloody hell, the US Supreme Court has done devastating damage to US democracy and the rule of law.

    Biden should use these new immunities to lock Trump up until after the election. We can argue about whether that is an official act or not afterwards. Thank God we don’t have a real Supreme Court on this country. If you ever wanted evidence of how dangerous a court without a sovereign Parliament can be look no further.

    What would the US House of Commons do about such a ruling?
    Thatcher - Pass an act overruling the Asses and Cocklecarrots.
    Starmer - Genuflect to the Lawyerly unelected Priesthood.

    Liberals and Tory Wets like Sunak. See Starmer for further details.
    Thatcher was a lawyer too...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,025
    RochdalePioneers said:

    On topic - I've called out for absolutely ages that there would be a shift to a harder right party in the red wall. I doubt that it will have any impact at all on the result in places like Hartlepools, but there will be a slug of votes going to Farage and not Starmer.

    Point is for the remaining fan of the blue team, these are not voters you can "bring back home".

    Exactly. They were never Tory votes in the first place.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,528
    bondegezou said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ed Davey rubber dinghy klaxon:

    https://x.com/itvwestcountry/status/1807798645280100757

    That’s an inflatable doughnut, not a dinghy. No bottom. Quite different.
    Soggy bottom shirley

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    The weird thing about the US Justices and Trumpers is they are relying on their opponents not being as bad as they say they are - Trump claims he was well within his rights as President to try to interfere in elections run by the states, and to try to get state houses to not certify results or even ignore them completely (in Pennsyvania they wanted millions tossed out on the basis of very minor allegations of impropriety), and the Court takes such a wide interpretation of such matters, that Biden and the Dems have a green light to reject election outcomes they do not like just as Trump did.

    So they are relying, in a situation where the GOP legitimately win, that the Democrats will not abuse their positions as Trump did, even though legally Biden himself could do so without fear.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    DavidL said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if this has been done to death already but bloody hell, the US Supreme Court has done devastating damage to US democracy and the rule of law.

    Biden should use these new immunities to lock Trump up until after the election. We can argue about whether that is an official act or not afterwards. Thank God we don’t have a real Supreme Court on this country. If you ever wanted evidence of how dangerous a court without a sovereign Parliament can be look no further.

    What would the US House of Commons do about such a ruling?
    Thatcher - Pass an act overruling the Asses and Cocklecarrots.
    Starmer - Genuflect to the Lawyerly unelected Priesthood.

    Liberals and Tory Wets like Sunak. See Starmer for further details.
    They would pass an Act impeaching the more egregious justices like Thomas and Alito and make it clear that the POTUS is subject to the law, just as everyone else is.

    Even given the appalling decisions of late I am genuinely shocked by this ruling.
    What's the difference between a sane Supreme Court ruling and Bigfoot?

    Some people think they might actually see Bigfoot.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,226
    Possibly Labour Leave voters who would never vote Conservative but are disaffected with the establishment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,572
    I don’t see how the tweet in the lead justifies its conclusion?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    I still have outside hopes that goober Streeting loses
    I have been rather impresed with Streeting on the NHS. Nothing ruled out and some genuine thinking outside the box.

    I accept it all may come to nothing but I will be interested to see if anything transfers into Government.
    He's not my cup of tea, him and Ashworth grind my grit
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    highwayparadise306 said:

    I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.

    Not correct in what way?

    I think there's a wide range possible, albeit with not many different outcomes.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    I still have outside hopes that goober Streeting loses
    I have been rather impresed with Streeting on the NHS. Nothing ruled out and some genuine thinking outside the box.

    I accept it all may come to nothing but I will be interested to see if anything transfers into Government.
    It was intriguing the floating of Alan Milburn as Chair of NHS England in Sunday's papers. Appointing Milburn would certainly be a sign of intent.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    I still have outside hopes that goober Streeting loses
    Ilford is.... Unlikely to have a reform surge
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,226
    Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.

    Wonderful imagery for the Dems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,605
    mickydroy said:

    At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%

    Survation was the outlier among the reputable pollsters with Labour on 40%. Most of the rest had the Tory lead around 10% just before the vote.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    another_richard said:

    Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.

    Wonderful imagery for the Dems.

    I would have thought the most ardent supporter of Biden's continuing candidacy is Sharky Don.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,228
    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    Any prediction of where that could be? I don't see any of the Labour front bench as being particularly vulnerable to a Reform surge, but I could be wrong.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Pulpstar said:

    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    I still have outside hopes that goober Streeting loses
    Ilford is.... Unlikely to have a reform surge
    Not to Reform! To Leanne Mohammed or the Tories through the middle if she nicks half his vote.
    Not a prediction, a fond hope
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    williamglenn said:

    mickydroy said:

    At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%

    Survation was the outlier among the reputable pollsters with Labour on 40%. Most of the rest had the Tory lead around 10% just before the vote.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Does anyone remember the last Survation poll
    williamglenn said:

    mickydroy said:

    At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%

    Survation was the outlier among the reputable pollsters with Labour on 40%. Most of the rest had the Tory lead around 10% just before the vote.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Does anybody remember the last Survation Poll
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    edited July 1
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if this has been done to death already but bloody hell, the US Supreme Court has done devastating damage to US democracy and the rule of law.

    Biden should use these new immunities to lock Trump up until after the election. We can argue about whether that is an official act or not afterwards. Thank God we don’t have a real Supreme Court on this country. If you ever wanted evidence of how dangerous a court without a sovereign Parliament can be look no further.

    What would the US House of Commons do about such a ruling?
    Thatcher - Pass an act overruling the Asses and Cocklecarrots.
    Starmer - Genuflect to the Lawyerly unelected Priesthood.

    Liberals and Tory Wets like Sunak. See Starmer for further details.
    I know I’m disagreeing with a professional lawyer….

    @DavidL I think we *do have* a real Supreme Court in this country. It is the highest court in the land.

    It’s just that our version takes as a fundamental rule that the legislature legislates, the executive executes and the judicial judges.

    Despite multiple attempts by the Fox Killer (and others), they have refused to do other than sum up the existing pile of laws, in order of precedence, to judge what is the current state of the law on the matter to hand.

    The events in the US are why this is a very wide position.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517
    DavidL said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if this has been done to death already but bloody hell, the US Supreme Court has done devastating damage to US democracy and the rule of law.

    Biden should use these new immunities to lock Trump up until after the election. We can argue about whether that is an official act or not afterwards. Thank God we don’t have a real Supreme Court on this country. If you ever wanted evidence of how dangerous a court without a sovereign Parliament can be look no further.

    What would the US House of Commons do about such a ruling?
    Thatcher - Pass an act overruling the Asses and Cocklecarrots.
    Starmer - Genuflect to the Lawyerly unelected Priesthood.

    Liberals and Tory Wets like Sunak. See Starmer for further details.
    They would pass an Act impeaching the more egregious justices like Thomas and Alito and make it clear that the POTUS is subject to the law, just as everyone else is.

    Even given the appalling decisions of late I am genuinely shocked by this ruling.
    This ruling is the sort of thing you see in the prologue of those dystopian films and TV shows like The Handmaid's Tale.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,228
    williamglenn said:

    mickydroy said:

    At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%

    Survation was the outlier among the reputable pollsters with Labour on 40%. Most of the rest had the Tory lead around 10% just before the vote.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Albeit the pollsters were all reporting quite significant rises in the Labour vote. During the campaign, the Labour polling average had risen from 25% on 18 April, to 37% on the Monday of election week.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1807837573890400709?s=19
    Workers campaign in Sutton Coldfield suspended after their canvassers get attacked
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    OK, here's a question.

    In light of today's ruling, couldn't Biden withdraw Trump's US citizenship?

    After all, Trump is entitled to a British passport and the US President can do anything as long as it's an official act, right?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    ...
    another_richard said:

    Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.

    Wonderful imagery for the Dems.

    That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    Any prediction of where that could be? I don't see any of the Labour front bench as being particularly vulnerable to a Reform surge, but I could be wrong.
    A couple of people have suggest Yvette Cooper but I really don't see it. I suspect the logic is that she only retained her seat because Brexit split the Tory vote but it would require all Tory voters to actually vote Reform and that doesn't look likely..

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    edited July 1
    The contradiction I’d like the polls to resolve is why SKS personal ratings have been increasing as the election campaign has gone on, but Labour has slipped quite markedly in voter intention.

    Perhaps it is a bit of Reform leakage and a tiny bit to the Lib Dems, but it remains a mystery.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,583
    There was some talk on here a few days ago re whether people who have seen the opening of postal votes may have an impact on betting markets.

    The movements are not huge but in the last 24 to 48 hours several Betfair markets have moved in the direction of the Conservatives doing a bit better than previously thought. eg:

    Con to get over 100 seats now 2.3 (was about 2.7)
    Con to get more votes than Reform now 1.17 (was about 1.3)
    Con to finish 2nd in seats now 1.2 (was about 1.35)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,226
    ydoethur said:

    another_richard said:

    Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.

    Wonderful imagery for the Dems.

    I would have thought the most ardent supporter of Biden's continuing candidacy is Sharky Don.
    If the GOP were really clever they would impeach Biden on grounds of incapacity.

    Forcing the Dems to defend Biden and so keep him from being replaced.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,458
    Oh great an entire thread of hopecasting and trollcasting. Still, it marginally beats bread shops and weirdo Glastonbury obsessions I suppose.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    edited July 1
    Mexicanpete said:

    ...

    another_richard said:

    Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.

    Wonderful imagery for the Dems.

    That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
    They already do.

    And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.

    I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,458
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    I still have outside hopes that goober Streeting loses
    I have been rather impresed with Streeting on the NHS. Nothing ruled out and some genuine thinking outside the box.

    I accept it all may come to nothing but I will be interested to see if anything transfers into Government.
    Yes, he’s impressive. Seems determined to modernise what is a hopelessly outdated front of house service.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,226
    Mexicanpete said:

    ...

    another_richard said:

    Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.

    Wonderful imagery for the Dems.

    That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
    It nullifies the advantage the Dems have on that issue.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    mickydroy said:

    At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%

    Survation was the outlier among the reputable pollsters with Labour on 40%. Most of the rest had the Tory lead around 10% just before the vote.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Albeit the pollsters were all reporting quite significant rises in the Labour vote. During the campaign, the Labour polling average had risen from 25% on 18 April, to 37% on the Monday of election week.
    Some people must have made a killing on the spreads, I have been waiting all campaign for some sign of a Tory comeback, which would would determine my betting, but it looks unlikely now. It is still very difficult to call the Tory seat total though, and fraught with danger
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,521
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ed Davey rubber dinghy klaxon:

    https://x.com/itvwestcountry/status/1807798645280100757

    l really hope this sort of campaign does work, I so want other party leaders to try it in future years. Much better than visiting a factory of bored workers in hard hats, or sticking leaflets through doors.
    A normal campaign visit uses up a lot of time by the local volunteers who could be otherwise canvassing etc. So Ed's exploits whilst planned from the centre may not take up vital local resources.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,528
    So France proceed to the quarter finals despite the fact that no French player has scored in open play in the Euros
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,605
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    Any prediction of where that could be? I don't see any of the Labour front bench as being particularly vulnerable to a Reform surge, but I could be wrong.
    A couple of people have suggest Yvette Cooper but I really don't see it. I suspect the logic is that she only retained her seat because Brexit split the Tory vote but it would require all Tory voters to actually vote Reform and that doesn't look likely..
    He might not count as a bigwig but Dan Jarvis is probably the most vulnerable statistically.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    I still have outside hopes that goober Streeting loses
    I have been rather impresed with Streeting on the NHS. Nothing ruled out and some genuine thinking outside the box.

    I accept it all may come to nothing but I will be interested to see if anything transfers into Government.
    Yes, he’s impressive. Seems determined to modernise what is a hopelessly outdated front of house service.
    It’s my one big hope for this government. It will take a Labour government with a big majority - giving it confidence - to reform the NHS. And Streeting does seem open minded, I like the way he scoffs at NHS-worship

    The Tories are too pathetic and frit to ever tackle the NHS, Labour just might

    Ins’allah
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,357
    I'm standing by my vote share prediction from 2 or 3 weeks ago. Lab 37%, Con 25%. (Peter Kellner came up with something similar on Sunday).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    TimS said:

    The contradiction I’d like the polls to resolve is why SKS personal ratings have been increasing as the election campaign has gone on, but Labour has slipped quite markedly in voter intention.

    Perhaps it is a bit of Reform leakage and a tiny bit to the Lib Dems, but it remains a mystery.

    Because pre campaign polling had larger Labour shares as default main opposition/not happy respondees but as the campaign progresses the discontent decide how they'll actually vote to remove the government/show dissatisfaction.
    It's the one aspect of swingback that has held. An opposition streets ahead falls back in VI during a campaign
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,544
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if this has been done to death already but bloody hell, the US Supreme Court has done devastating damage to US democracy and the rule of law.

    Biden should use these new immunities to lock Trump up until after the election. We can argue about whether that is an official act or not afterwards. Thank God we don’t have a real Supreme Court on this country. If you ever wanted evidence of how dangerous a court without a sovereign Parliament can be look no further.

    What would the US House of Commons do about such a ruling?
    Thatcher - Pass an act overruling the Asses and Cocklecarrots.
    Starmer - Genuflect to the Lawyerly unelected Priesthood.

    Liberals and Tory Wets like Sunak. See Starmer for further details.
    They would pass an Act impeaching the more egregious justices like Thomas and Alito and make it clear that the POTUS is subject to the law, just as everyone else is.

    Even given the appalling decisions of late I am genuinely shocked by this ruling.
    This ruling is the sort of thing you see in the prologue of those dystopian films and TV shows like The Handmaid's Tale.
    Suburban Science Teacher here, but...

    1 What is the best workable case that can be made for this ruling? Because it looks f#&!ING scary. Because if do what you will really is the whole of the law, fewest scruples wins.

    2 Is there any way out of this for our American friends?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    Any prediction of where that could be? I don't see any of the Labour front bench as being particularly vulnerable to a Reform surge, but I could be wrong.
    Victor Grayson?
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm standing by my vote share prediction from 2 or 3 weeks ago. Lab 37%, Con 25%. (Peter Kellner came up with something similar on Sunday).

    I think it will be a long time before one political party breaks through 40% again, smaller parties are definitely going to get a bigger share from here on in, unless I'm proved wrong in three days time
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271
    It's not surprising that the Labour share has declined somewhat given what's happened in recent months. But it's little consolation to the Tories, because it isn't going to them.
    I reckon Labour has lost about 3pp to Reform, 2pp to the Greens, and 2pp to the Lib Dems. Hence Labour on around 38% rather than their highs of around 45%.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    edited July 1
    The Tories seem to be consistently banging on about Angela Rayner in their ads and social media activity. It’s too pervasive to be accidental.

    Have they found this really resonating in focus groups? It seems odd and I’m surprised she would be a vote swinger for them, especially if have thought among potential Reform voters. But there’s obviously a strategy at work there.

    We’ve had 3 attack narratives pushed in a concerted way during this campaign:

    £2k extra tax
    Supermajority
    Angela Rayner
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Brett Kavanaugh, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Kari Lake are on a boat sailing through the shark-infested waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

    Suddenly, disaster! One shark has got too close and the skipper, trying to avoid a collision, has steered straight into a rock. The boat, struggling already with the heavy battery which is useless because the sun isn't shining, sinks.

    Who is saved?

    America.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,572
    wooliedyed said:

    Pulpstar said:

    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    I still have outside hopes that goober Streeting loses
    Ilford is.... Unlikely to have a reform surge
    Not to Reform! To Leanne Mohammed or the Tories through the middle if she nicks half his vote.
    Not a prediction, a fond hope
    She won’t win; the demographics of the seat aren’t sufficient. Likely, he is well safe. But if he loses it will be to the Tory.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517
    Stuartinromford said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if this has been done to death already but bloody hell, the US Supreme Court has done devastating damage to US democracy and the rule of law.

    Biden should use these new immunities to lock Trump up until after the election. We can argue about whether that is an official act or not afterwards. Thank God we don’t have a real Supreme Court on this country. If you ever wanted evidence of how dangerous a court without a sovereign Parliament can be look no further.

    What would the US House of Commons do about such a ruling?
    Thatcher - Pass an act overruling the Asses and Cocklecarrots.
    Starmer - Genuflect to the Lawyerly unelected Priesthood.

    Liberals and Tory Wets like Sunak. See Starmer for further details.
    They would pass an Act impeaching the more egregious justices like Thomas and Alito and make it clear that the POTUS is subject to the law, just as everyone else is.

    Even given the appalling decisions of late I am genuinely shocked by this ruling.
    This ruling is the sort of thing you see in the prologue of those dystopian films and TV shows like The Handmaid's Tale.
    Suburban Science Teacher here, but...

    1 What is the best workable case that can be made for this ruling? Because it looks f#&!ING scary. Because if do what you will really is the whole of the law, fewest scruples wins.

    2 Is there any way out of this for our American friends?
    America is more doomed than the Tory Party.

    I have joked that I would be like to be the UK's first directly elected dictator, this is the sort of ruling that would give me unlimited power.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,116
    ydoethur said:

    another_richard said:

    Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.

    Wonderful imagery for the Dems.

    I would have thought the most ardent supporter of Biden's continuing candidacy is Sharky Don.
    Banter timeline includes all house Dems voting for the 25th and all house Reps voting against
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,572
    edited July 1
    mickydroy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm standing by my vote share prediction from 2 or 3 weeks ago. Lab 37%, Con 25%. (Peter Kellner came up with something similar on Sunday).

    I think it will be a long time before one political party breaks through 40% again, smaller parties are definitely going to get a bigger share from here on in, unless I'm proved wrong in three days time
    People said that back then, until Labour members picked Corbyn….to this day, some Tories still like to pretend people were actual voting positively for the lying clown.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    This is Le Fucking HILARIOUS

    Dear old @Roger lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer, in the “4th circonscription des Alpes-Maritimes”

    How did it vote? Have a guess? Yes, it voted for Le Pen and RN. But - this is the fun bit - the RN got an overall majority, more than 50% of the vote, absolutely thrashing any rivals. This means the RN candidate is already elected, there won’t be a 2nd round - the RN victory was so emphatic

    Les résultats du premier tour des élections législatives dans la 4e circonscription des Alpes-Maritimes

    Alexandra MASSON

    Rassemblement national
    51,34 %
    1 283

    Anne-Pascale GUEDON
    Renaissance-Ensemble
    30,33 %
    758

    Virginie PARENT
    Parti communiste français-NFP
    13,81 %
    345

    Christine BEYL
    divers écologistes
    3,96 %
    99


    Etc

    So @Roger, who constantly derides the awful racist Brits and who tells us “the French will never vote for the Far Right” actually lives in a corner of France which is about as Far Right as it gets, and more than half of his neighbours support Le pen

    Weirdly, in his post election commentary, he has not mentioned this, perhaps he hasn’t noticed

    https://www.lemonde.fr/resultats-legislatives-2024/villefranche-sur-mer-06159/

    Le LOL

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,572
    edited July 1
    mickydroy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    mickydroy said:

    At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%

    Survation was the outlier among the reputable pollsters with Labour on 40%. Most of the rest had the Tory lead around 10% just before the vote.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Albeit the pollsters were all reporting quite significant rises in the Labour vote. During the campaign, the Labour polling average had risen from 25% on 18 April, to 37% on the Monday of election week.
    Some people must have made a killing on the spreads, I have been waiting all campaign for some sign of a Tory comeback, which would would determine my betting, but it looks unlikely now. It is still very difficult to call the Tory seat total though, and fraught with danger
    If you’re up on the Tories, and not at stupid numbers, best wait until the results start coming in. Then decide whether to stick, bail or twist.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    Labour on 38-39% or so rather than low 40s is completely fine if it's accompanied by efficient tactical voting for the Lib Dems in seats where that makes more sense.

    I think we are seeing ample evidence of exactly that.

    I don't think this is necessarily good news for the Tories at all.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,092
    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    I still have outside hopes that goober Streeting loses
    Got an ANONYMOUS LEAFLET today dissing Wes Streeting, basically saying he's in the pay of private health firms. As far as I can see, no Party affiliation from the sender!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/

    My bet with @TimS is gonna be a squeaker

    I fear I have lost my bet with @Sandpit
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    edited July 1
    ...
    ydoethur said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    ...

    another_richard said:

    Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.

    Wonderful imagery for the Dems.

    That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
    They already do.

    And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.

    I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
    I hope you are right. Some of the more enthusiastic Trumpsters on here are nonetheless greatly cheered by Biden's poor display last week.

    Joe's memory isn't what it was, but it would appear he doesn't require a lifetime supply of adult Pampers. Apparently the aroma around the defendant in that New York courtroom was reminiscent of eau de decomposing squirrel.

    https://youtu.be/o_KsI_wkKgI?si=sNF3OJ9Omn-kV6w5
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,458
    Leon said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    I still have outside hopes that goober Streeting loses
    I have been rather impresed with Streeting on the NHS. Nothing ruled out and some genuine thinking outside the box.

    I accept it all may come to nothing but I will be interested to see if anything transfers into Government.
    Yes, he’s impressive. Seems determined to modernise what is a hopelessly outdated front of house service.
    It’s my one big hope for this government. It will take a Labour government with a big majority - giving it confidence - to reform the NHS. And Streeting does seem open minded, I like the way he scoffs at NHS-worship

    The Tories are too pathetic and frit to ever tackle the NHS, Labour just might

    Ins’allah
    Yes, he gives zero fucks about the “ah yes the reason we perform this basic piece of admin/logistics in a manner that would embarrass an 1640s soup kitchen is Reasons” attitude of the ‘service’.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,676
    Leon said:

    This is Le Fucking HILARIOUS

    Dear old @Roger lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer, in the “4th circonscription des Alpes-Maritimes”

    How did it vote? Have a guess? Yes, it voted for Le Pen and RN. But - this is the fun bit - the RN got an overall majority, more than 50% of the vote, absolutely thrashing any rivals. This means the RN candidate is already elected, there won’t be a 2nd round - the RN victory was so emphatic

    Les résultats du premier tour des élections législatives dans la 4e circonscription des Alpes-Maritimes

    Alexandra MASSON

    Rassemblement national
    51,34 %
    1 283

    Anne-Pascale GUEDON
    Renaissance-Ensemble
    30,33 %
    758

    Virginie PARENT
    Parti communiste français-NFP
    13,81 %
    345

    Christine BEYL
    divers écologistes
    3,96 %
    99


    Etc

    So @Roger, who constantly derides the awful racist Brits and who tells us “the French will never vote for the Far Right” actually lives in a corner of France which is about as Far Right as it gets, and more than half of his neighbours support Le pen

    Weirdly, in his post election commentary, he has not mentioned this, perhaps he hasn’t noticed

    https://www.lemonde.fr/resultats-legislatives-2024/villefranche-sur-mer-06159/

    Le LOL

    Perhaps they're hoping to boot out the hated British second home interlopers.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,069
    bondegezou said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ed Davey rubber dinghy klaxon:

    https://x.com/itvwestcountry/status/1807798645280100757

    That’s an inflatable doughnut, not a dinghy. No bottom. Quite different.
    But is it a Gails or a Greggs inflatable doughnut? it seems to matter.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    edited July 1
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/

    Swingback week begins.

    Lowest LLG score I can remember in a long long time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/

    My bet with @TimS is gonna be a squeaker

    I fear I have lost my bet with @Sandpit
    Yeah, no seats looks a far off prospect!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,327
    Malmesbury said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if this has been done to death already but bloody hell, the US Supreme Court has done devastating damage to US democracy and the rule of law.

    Biden should use these new immunities to lock Trump up until after the election. We can argue about whether that is an official act or not afterwards. Thank God we don’t have a real Supreme Court on this country. If you ever wanted evidence of how dangerous a court without a sovereign Parliament can be look no further.

    What would the US House of Commons do about such a ruling?
    Thatcher - Pass an act overruling the Asses and Cocklecarrots.
    Starmer - Genuflect to the Lawyerly unelected Priesthood.

    Liberals and Tory Wets like Sunak. See Starmer for further details.
    I know I’m disagreeing with a professional lawyer….

    @DavidL I think we *do have* a real Supreme Court in this country. It is the highest court in the land.

    It’s just that our version takes as a fundamental rule that the legislature legislates, the executive executes and the judicial judges.

    Despite multiple attempts by the Fox Killer (and others), they have refused to do other than sum up the existing pile of laws, in order of precedence, to judge what is the current state of the law on the matter to hand.

    The events in the US are why this is a very wide position.
    Don’t get me wrong. I think our Supreme Court do the job right, especially since Lady Hale moved on. But this undemocratic rubbish we are seeing over the pond shows how dangerous The Hale court was.

    Parliament is sovereign. The people who elect Parliament are sovereign. That is the way it should be and, by and large, the way it is.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,458
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/

    Reformgasm has definitely expired IMO. Green looks more realistic too.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/

    Baxtered - without any tactical voting - still gives:

    LAB 445 CON 95 LD 64 REFUK 5

    Obviously Baxter's not infallible but I still think we need a mahoosive sea change for even things like Tories >150 seats.

    Lest we forget also, I think around 20-25% of the vote is already in?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,458
    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/

    My bet with @TimS is gonna be a squeaker

    I fear I have lost my bet with @Sandpit
    What’s your bet with Tim?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/

    100 to 150 seats looks a slightly better prospect now, I think we may see 50-99 100-149 crossover soon
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,866
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ed Davey rubber dinghy klaxon:

    https://x.com/itvwestcountry/status/1807798645280100757

    l really hope this sort of campaign does work, I so want other party leaders to try it in future years. Much better than visiting a factory of bored workers in hard hats, or sticking leaflets through doors.
    Where are these bets on What Will Davey Do?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,139
    TimS said:

    The Tories seem to be consistently banging on about Angela Rayner in their ads and social media activity. It’s too pervasive to be accidental.

    Have they found this really resonating in focus groups? It seems odd and I’m surprised she would be a vote swinger for them, especially if have thought among potential Reform voters. But there’s obviously a strategy at work there.

    We’ve had 3 attack narratives pushed in a concerted way during this campaign:

    £2k extra tax
    Supermajority
    Angela Rayner

    Bear in mind they are appealing to their base, and people like me, and not you.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,458
    IanB2 said:

    mickydroy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    mickydroy said:

    At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%

    Survation was the outlier among the reputable pollsters with Labour on 40%. Most of the rest had the Tory lead around 10% just before the vote.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Albeit the pollsters were all reporting quite significant rises in the Labour vote. During the campaign, the Labour polling average had risen from 25% on 18 April, to 37% on the Monday of election week.
    Some people must have made a killing on the spreads, I have been waiting all campaign for some sign of a Tory comeback, which would would determine my betting, but it looks unlikely now. It is still very difficult to call the Tory seat total though, and fraught with danger
    If you’re up on the Tories, and not at stupid numbers, best wait until the results start coming in. Then decide whether to stick, bail or twist.
    I too am trying to find a precise Tory seat bet. Very, very hard to gauge it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,379
    williamglenn said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    A harbinger of the inverse Portillo moment as a Labour bigwig loses to Reform.

    Any prediction of where that could be? I don't see any of the Labour front bench as being particularly vulnerable to a Reform surge, but I could be wrong.
    A couple of people have suggest Yvette Cooper but I really don't see it. I suspect the logic is that she only retained her seat because Brexit split the Tory vote but it would require all Tory voters to actually vote Reform and that doesn't look likely..
    He might not count as a bigwig but Dan Jarvis is probably the most vulnerable statistically.
    Thangam Debbonaire.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    MikeL said:

    There was some talk on here a few days ago re whether people who have seen the opening of postal votes may have an impact on betting markets.

    The movements are not huge but in the last 24 to 48 hours several Betfair markets have moved in the direction of the Conservatives doing a bit better than previously thought. eg:

    Con to get over 100 seats now 2.3 (was about 2.7)
    Con to get more votes than Reform now 1.17 (was about 1.3)
    Con to finish 2nd in seats now 1.2 (was about 1.35)

    I have a contact in the west country who as of last night had not yet got their postal ballot.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,572
    wooliedyed said:

    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/

    My bet with @TimS is gonna be a squeaker

    I fear I have lost my bet with @Sandpit
    Yeah, no seats looks a far off prospect!
    Still can’t believe Ladbrokes offered 1/3 on the Tories holding Sevenoaks. I put a fair chunk on; it should have been my life savings ;)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Leon said:

    This is Le Fucking HILARIOUS

    Dear old @Roger lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer, in the “4th circonscription des Alpes-Maritimes”

    How did it vote? Have a guess? Yes, it voted for Le Pen and RN. But - this is the fun bit - the RN got an overall majority, more than 50% of the vote, absolutely thrashing any rivals. This means the RN candidate is already elected, there won’t be a 2nd round - the RN victory was so emphatic

    Les résultats du premier tour des élections législatives dans la 4e circonscription des Alpes-Maritimes

    Alexandra MASSON

    Rassemblement national
    51,34 %
    1 283

    Anne-Pascale GUEDON
    Renaissance-Ensemble
    30,33 %
    758

    Virginie PARENT
    Parti communiste français-NFP
    13,81 %
    345

    Christine BEYL
    divers écologistes
    3,96 %
    99


    Etc

    So @Roger, who constantly derides the awful racist Brits and who tells us “the French will never vote for the Far Right” actually lives in a corner of France which is about as Far Right as it gets, and more than half of his neighbours support Le pen

    Weirdly, in his post election commentary, he has not mentioned this, perhaps he hasn’t noticed

    https://www.lemonde.fr/resultats-legislatives-2024/villefranche-sur-mer-06159/

    Le LOL

    Perhaps they're hoping to boot out the hated British second home interlopers.
    I hadn’t thought of that

    This huge vote for RN in the 4th Alpes Maritime is striking even by the standards of this mad Gallic election. So maybe Roger is actually DRIVING the vote? Perhaps the Villefranchistes are so fucked off with this pompous Woke retired British minor public school tampon ad executive constantly talking gibberish and trying to show them his Nutella ad from 1976 as they try to eat croissants they have switched from Macron to Le Pen in a desperate bid to make him so uncomfortable he leaves the area, and the entire town can breathe a sigh of relief

    That actually makes sense. Roger is actually a French political influencer, just in a way we didn’t expect
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    Leon said:

    This is Le Fucking HILARIOUS

    Dear old @Roger lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer, in the “4th circonscription des Alpes-Maritimes”

    How did it vote? Have a guess? Yes, it voted for Le Pen and RN. But - this is the fun bit - the RN got an overall majority, more than 50% of the vote, absolutely thrashing any rivals. This means the RN candidate is already elected, there won’t be a 2nd round - the RN victory was so emphatic

    Les résultats du premier tour des élections législatives dans la 4e circonscription des Alpes-Maritimes

    Alexandra MASSON

    Rassemblement national
    51,34 %
    1 283

    Anne-Pascale GUEDON
    Renaissance-Ensemble
    30,33 %
    758

    Virginie PARENT
    Parti communiste français-NFP
    13,81 %
    345

    Christine BEYL
    divers écologistes
    3,96 %
    99


    Etc

    So @Roger, who constantly derides the awful racist Brits and who tells us “the French will never vote for the Far Right” actually lives in a corner of France which is about as Far Right as it gets, and more than half of his neighbours support Le pen

    Weirdly, in his post election commentary, he has not mentioned this, perhaps he hasn’t noticed

    https://www.lemonde.fr/resultats-legislatives-2024/villefranche-sur-mer-06159/

    Le LOL

    France becomes just that little bit more left wing as you take your ferry back to Portsmouth.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    Casino_Royale said:

    TimS said:

    The Tories seem to be consistently banging on about Angela Rayner in their ads and social media activity. It’s too pervasive to be accidental.

    Have they found this really resonating in focus groups? It seems odd and I’m surprised she would be a vote swinger for them, especially if have thought among potential Reform voters. But there’s obviously a strategy at work there.

    We’ve had 3 attack narratives pushed in a concerted way during this campaign:

    £2k extra tax
    Supermajority
    Angela Rayner

    Bear in mind they are appealing to their base, and people like me, and not you.
    I’d have expected them to be appealing to people lost to Reform, rather than their base. But I suppose if it’s purely a GOTV there is maybe some logic. Is Rayner really that scary though?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Leon said:

    This is Le Fucking HILARIOUS

    Dear old @Roger lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer, in the “4th circonscription des Alpes-Maritimes”

    How did it vote? Have a guess? Yes, it voted for Le Pen and RN. But - this is the fun bit - the RN got an overall majority, more than 50% of the vote, absolutely thrashing any rivals. This means the RN candidate is already elected, there won’t be a 2nd round - the RN victory was so emphatic

    Les résultats du premier tour des élections législatives dans la 4e circonscription des Alpes-Maritimes

    Alexandra MASSON

    Rassemblement national
    51,34 %
    1 283

    Anne-Pascale GUEDON
    Renaissance-Ensemble
    30,33 %
    758

    Virginie PARENT
    Parti communiste français-NFP
    13,81 %
    345

    Christine BEYL
    divers écologistes
    3,96 %
    99


    Etc

    So @Roger, who constantly derides the awful racist Brits and who tells us “the French will never vote for the Far Right” actually lives in a corner of France which is about as Far Right as it gets, and more than half of his neighbours support Le pen

    Weirdly, in his post election commentary, he has not mentioned this, perhaps he hasn’t noticed

    https://www.lemonde.fr/resultats-legislatives-2024/villefranche-sur-mer-06159/

    Le LOL

    Perhaps they're hoping to boot out the hated British second home interlopers.
    The mistake you are making is that @Roger doesn’t recognise the existence of the Lower Orders. Except if they are cluttering up the streets.

    As long as no one he knows is voting National Ramblers, it’s all good.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    Anabobazina said:

    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/

    My bet with @TimS is gonna be a squeaker

    I fear I have lost my bet with @Sandpit
    What’s your bet with Tim?
    Tories over or under 26%.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    Anabobazina said:

    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph


    📈Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    🌹Lab 39 (+1)
    🌳Con 24 (+3)
    ➡️Reform 13 (-1)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 3 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 7 (=)

    https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807844169538216397/

    My bet with @TimS is gonna be a squeaker

    I fear I have lost my bet with @Sandpit
    What’s your bet with Tim?
    Fifty quid that the Tories get higher or lower than 26%. He wins if higher, I win if lower

    A nicely balanced bet, and if Tim wins then I doff my cap, because at the time the polls were nearly all showing the Tories well below that, so he was brave
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